水位随机气压效率的地震前兆异常研究

对在大气压力的随机气压变化作用下深井水位变化特点进行分析研究，在前人工作的基础上，提出可以利用大气压力的随机气压变化进行水位气压效率的计算。该方法较以往各种计算方法排除干扰能力强，计算方便，地震前兆异常突出，是水位气压效率地震前兆预报方法中能够应用于日常地震监测的方法之一。     

鄱阳湖区间洪水计算方法

在实施一个大型国际合作项目（ＢＩＴＥＸ　’９３）期间,作者在琵琶湖进行了一个大规模的内波野外观测．９台垂直系留的湖流观测及其旋转谱分析的结果表明：除了众所周知的开尔文波以外,在表层有风的日变化造成的周期为２４ｈ的顺时针旋转的强迫振荡,在温跃层,Ｐｏｉｎｃａｒｅ波的第一调式（ｍｏｄｅ）占主导地位．Ｐｏｉｎｃａｒｅ波使温跃层附近的湖流以周期１６－１８ｈ顺时针旋转,在底层,周期为１１ｈ的不旋转的重力波非     

周至井水位气压效率和相关系数在中强地震前的变化特征

计算了2002～2004年周至井水位的气压效率和相关系数,初步分析了其与地震的关系,认为在2002年甘肃玉门5.9级地震、2003年和2004年甘肃岷县5.2、5.0级地震前,该井水位的气压效率和相关系数同时出现了明显的短临前兆异常。     

Hydrogeophysical Methods for Analyzing Aquifer Storage and Recovery Systems

Hydrogeophysical methods are presented that support the siting and monitoring of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) systems. These methods are presented as numerical simulations in the context of a proposed ASR experiment in Kuwait, although the techniques are applicable to numerous ASR projects. Bulk geophysical properties are calculated directly from ASR flow and solute transport simulations using standard petrophysical relationships and are used to simulate the dynamic geophysical response to ASR. This strategy provides a quantitative framework for determining site‐specific geophysical methods and data acquisition geometries that can provide the most useful information about the ASR implementation. An axisymmetric, coupled fluid flow and solute transport model simulates injection, storage, and withdrawal of fresh water (salinity ～500 ppm) into the Dammam aquifer, a tertiary carbonate formation with native salinity approximately 6000 ppm. Sensitivity of the flow simulations to the correlation length of aquifer heterogeneity, aquifer dispersivity, and hydraulic permeability of the confining layer are investigated. The geophysical response using electrical resistivity, time‐domain electromagnetic (TEM), and seismic methods is computed at regular intervals during the ASR simulation to investigate the sensitivity of these different techniques to changes in subsurface properties. For the electrical and electromagnetic methods, fluid electric conductivity is derived from the modeled salinity and is combined with an assumed porosity model to compute a bulk electrical resistivity structure. The seismic response is computed from the porosity model and changes in effective stress due to fluid pressure variations during injection/recovery, while changes in fluid properties are introduced through Gassmann fluid substitution.     

Application of Surface-Wave Methods for Seismic Site Characterization

Surface-wave dispersion analysis is widely used in geophysics to infer a shear wave velocity model of the subsoil for a wide variety of applications. A shear-wave velocity model is obtained from the solution of an inverse problem based on the surface wave dispersive propagation in vertically heterogeneous media. The analysis can be based either on active source measurements or on seismic noise recordings. This paper discusses the most typical choices for collection and interpretation of experimental data, providing a state of the art on the different steps involved in surface wave surveys. In particular, the different strategies for processing experimental data and to solve the inverse problem are presented, along with their advantages and disadvantages. Also, some issues related to the characteristics of passive surface wave data and their use in H/V spectral ratio technique are discussed as additional information to be used independently or in conjunction with dispersion analysis. Finally, some recommendations for the use of surface wave methods are presented, while also outlining future trends in the research of this topic.     

Re-Look to Conventional Techniques for Trapping Efficiency Estimation of a Reservoir

All reservoirs are subjected to sediment inflow and deposition up to a certain extent leading to reduction in their capacity. Thus, the important practical problem related to the life of reservoir is the estimation of sedimentation quantity in the reservoirs. Large number of methods and models are available for estimation of reservoir sedimentation process. However, each model differs greatly in terms of their complexity, inputs and other requirements. In the simplest way, the fraction of sediment deposit in the reservoir can be determined through the knowledge of its trap efficiency. Trap efficiency （Te） is the proportion of the incoming sediment that is deposited or trapped in a reservoir. Most of the Te estimation methods define a relationship of the T, of the reservoir to their capacity and annual inflow, generally through curves. In this study, the empirical relationships given by Brune and Brown were used and compared for estimating the trap efficiency of Gobindsagar Reservoir （Bhakra Dam） on Satluj River in Bilaspur district of Himachal Pradesh, in the Himalayan region of India. A new set of regression equations has been developed for Brune＇s method and compared with Brown and other available Brune＇s equations. It has been found that Brune＇s equations developed in the present study estimated better than the other Brune＇s equations reported in literature. Later, in the present study it was found that Brown＇s approach was over estimating the T,. Hence it was again modified for Gobindsagar reservoir. It was also identified that sediments coming to this particular reservoir were mainly of coarse nature.     

利用不同方法估算流动台站的场地响应

本文以2003年7月21日云南大姚6.2级地震序列为例, 分别利用地面运动反演法(Moya方法)、 水平与垂直向之比法(Nakamura方法)和参考台站法研究大姚地区场地响应特征。主要结论有: ① Moya方法计算的场地响应结果表明, 大姚地区场地的放大作用是比较明显的, 平均在3~20倍, 最高达到40倍; 卓越频率位于3~6 Hz之间, 但在高频处(约10 Hz以上)场地响应衰减得比较明显; 不同岩性台基的台站, 其场地响应结果存在一定的差别, 台基为风化砾岩的场地响应结果比较平缓, 其场地响应值比台基为土层的其他台站小一些。② 入射角在40°以上和以下范围, Nakamura方法得到的场地响应形态有差异, 但在各自范围内, 场地响应与入射角的依赖关系不明显。③ 利用同一台站不同时间记录到的地震资料, 由三种方法各自得到的场地响应都具有较好的稳定性; 由于垂直分量仍具有放大作用(在10 Hz以下), Moya的结果大于Nakaruma的结果, 但两者形态上一致性较好; 参考台站法由于受参考台站的影响, 计算得到的场地响应形态和其他两种方法差异较大。④ Moya方法是依赖于震源模型的方法, 它能给出绝对的场地响应值, 其它两种方法的结果是一种相对场地响应, 受参考对象的影响较大。     

A Robust Method for Relative Gravity Data Estimation with High Efficiency

When gravimetric data observations have outliers, using standard least squares (LS) estimation will likely give poor accuracies and unreliable parameter estimates. One of the typical approaches to overcome this problem consists of using the robust estimation techniques. In this paper, we modified the robust estimator of Gervini and Yohai (2002) called REWLSE (Robust and Efficient Weighted Least Squares Estimator), which combines simultaneously high statistical efficiency and high breakdown point by replacing the weight function by a new weight function. This method allows reducing the outlier impacts and makes more use of the information provided by the data. In order to adapt this technique to the relative gravity data, weights are computed using the empirical distribution of the residuals obtained initially by the LTS (Least Trimmed Squares) estimator and by minimizing the mean distances relatively to the LS-estimator without outliers. The robustness of the initial estimator is maintained by adapted cut-off values as suggested by the REWLSE method which allows also a reasonable statistical efficiency. Hereafter we give the advantage and the pertinence of REWLSE procedure on real and semi-simulated gravity data by comparing it with conventional LS and other robust approaches like M- and MM-estimators.     

地震报道中死亡人数估计方法的适用性分析

基于国内外8次地震报道死亡人数的统计数据,采用修正指数曲线、龚铂茨曲线、罗吉斯蒂曲线分别进行震后死亡人数估计。对比分析表明三种模型均适合地震报道死亡人数估计;用剔除前两个拟合值后的拟合精度作为预测误差在实际应用中具有实际参考价值。对中国3次强震报道死亡人数拟合结果分析显示,联合三种模型,采用相对误差较小的模型为主、另两种模型为参考的方法进行最终死亡人数预测,可为抗震救灾指挥部署提供参考依据。     

Optimizing Multiwell Aquifer Storage and Recovery Systems for Energy Use and Recovery Efficiency

As more aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) systems are employed for management of water resources, the skillful operation of multiwell ASR systems has become very important to improve their performance. In this study, we developed MODFLOW and MT3DMS models to simulate a multiwell ASR system in a synthetic aquifer to assess effects of hydrogeological and operational factors on the performance of the multiwell ASR system. We evaluated a simplified (dual well) ASR system in comparison with complex system (three-, four-, five-, and seven-well systems). Recovery and energy efficiencies were calculated using the model simulations. Factors such as higher hydraulic conductivity and longitudinal dispersivity significantly reduced the recovery and energy efficiencies of the system. In contrast, increasing the volume of recharged water increased the recovery efficiency; however, the energy efficiency was reduced. Recovery and energy efficiencies also plummet when there is an increase in the underlying regional gradient and the designed storage duration. Operating the system multiple times can yield higher volume of potable water, but the energy efficiency may not vary significantly after the second operating cycle. Single-well systems and multiwell systems exhibit similar responses to changes in physical factors, although operational factors have a more pronounced effect on the multiwell systems. One of the major findings was that fewer wells in a multiwell ASR system can yield higher volume of potable water and better output with respect to the electrical power being consumed. The results provide design engineers with guidelines for optimizing performance of the multiwell ASR systems.     

Using Grain‐Size Distribution Methods for Estimation of Air Permeability

Knowledge of air permeability (k_a) at dry conditions is critical for the use of air flow models in porous media; however, it is usually difficult and time consuming to measure k_a at dry conditions. It is thus desirable to estimate k_a at dry conditions from other readily obtainable properties. In this study, the feasibility of using information derived from grain‐size distributions (GSDs) for estimating k_a at dry conditions was examined. Fourteen GSD‐based equations originally developed for estimating saturated hydraulic conductivity were tested using k_a measured at dry conditions in both undisturbed and disturbed river sediment samples. On average, the estimated k_a from all the equations, except for the method of Slichter, differed by less than ± 4 times from the measured k_a for both undisturbed and disturbed groups. In particular, for the two sediment groups, the results given by the methods of Terzaghi and Hazen‐modified were comparable to the measured k_a. In addition, two methods (e.g., Barr and Beyer) for the undisturbed samples and one method (e.g., Hazen‐original) for the undisturbed samples were also able to produce comparable k_a estimates. Moreover, after adjusting the values of the coefficient C in the GSD‐based equations, the estimation of k_a was significantly improved with the differences between the measured and estimated k_a less than ±4% on average (except for the method of Barr). As demonstrated by this study, GSD‐based equations may provide a promising and efficient way to estimate k_a at dry conditions.     

Cost Comparisons of Aquifer Heterogeneity Characterization Methods

The characterization of heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity (K) is a major challenge for subsurface remediation projects. There are a number of field studies that compare the K estimates obtained using various techniques, but to our knowledge, no field‐based studies exists that compare the performance of estimated K heterogeneity fields or the associated characterization costs. In this paper, we compare the costs of characterizing the three‐dimensional K heterogeneity and its uncertainty estimates of a glaciofluvial aquifer‐aquitard sequence at a 15 m × 15 m × 18 m field site situated on the University of Waterloo campus. We compare geostatistical analysis of high resolution permeameter K data obtained from repacked core samples in five boreholes and hydraulic tomography analysis of four pumping tests consisting of up to 41 monitoring points per test. Aside from the comparison of costs, we also assess the performance of each method by predicting several pumping tests. Our analysis reveals that hydraulic tomography is somewhat more costly than the geostatistical analysis of high resolution permeameter K data due to the higher capital costs associated with the method. However, the equipment may be reused at other sites; hence these costs may be recovered over the life of the equipment. More significantly, hydraulic tomography is able to capture the most important features of the aquifer‐aquitard sequence leading to more accurate predictions of independent pumping tests. This suggests that more robust remediation systems may be designed if site characterization is performed with hydraulic tomography.     

地震数据分布式存储系统建设模式与服务效能研究

我国地震监测系统历经了数字化、网络化和自动化的变革。随着地震监测站网规模的不断扩大,作为国家数据中心,中国地震台网中心面临数万地震台站观测数据处理和存储压力。本文基于前期国家地震烈度速报与预警工程、公共安全信息化工程(中国地震局)建设项目等建设经验,总结地震数据分布式存储系统的建设模式,并验证其合理性。同时以历史数据迁移归档业务为例,分析共享存储系统的服务效能,为海量观测数据的高效存储管理、共享数据存储系统建设提供参考。     

Estimation of the Change in Storage Capacity above Mined Longwall Panels

Accurate estimation of the change in groundwater storage capacity (S) above mined longwall panels is vital for analysis of postmining void water level recovery in coal mines, and assessment of water quality impacts. At present, there is no generalized representation of the spatial distribution of changes in S around a panel. Current estimates are generally bulk averages with high uncertainty, precluding calculation of groundwater velocities in various parts of the subsurface. In this work, a recently published hydrogeological conceptual model of longwall caving is used in conjunction with observations from borehole extensometers, goaf height measurements, and pumping/drawdown records for mine pools to develop a subsurface spatial distribution of changes in S following longwall caving, with reduced uncertainty in their magnitudes. The assumption of saturation in the disturbed zone proved critical for obtaining accurate results and in reconciling widely varying published estimates of S. Results indicate that the goaf and collapsed zones each absorb over 30% of the mined volume, and about 20% is absorbed by the surface subsidence trough. The increase in S in the collapsed zone is inversely proportional to the amount of surface subsidence. The conceptual model is updated with these results to present the spatial distribution of S after caving. The results allow calculation of water velocities in various zones, and may provide greater accuracy in estimation of water level rebound and water quality processes. Most of the S participating in groundwater flows is provided by defects rather than the matrix.     

Effect of Symasin on the Efficiency of Aerobic Treatment Methods

The relatively poorly water-soluble herbicide Symasin can be oxidized biochemically to a low degree and chemically with potassium dichromate to 73%. With potassium permanganate, on the other hand, only about 5% of the theoretical chemical oxygen demand are consumed. As investigations with municipal wastewaters have shown, by the aerobic wastewater treatment Symasin is not decomposed also with extended treatment times and very intensive aeration. Only at very high dosages Symasin has a toxic effect on warm-blooded animals; various algae species, on the other hand, and also nitrifying bacteria react very sensitively.     

Integrating Hydrogeological and Geophysical Methods for the Characterization of a Deltaic Aquifer System

Groundwater management needs detailed aquifer characterization, especially in semiarid costal aquifer systems that are under hydrological pressure. Our study area is in the Tordera delta, northeastern coast of Spain, where a detrital fluvio-deltaic aquifer system has been developed above granitic basement. The main purpose of this study is to characterize the complex lithological structure and the seawater intrusion state by combining hydrological information, audiomagnetotelluric (AMT) and seismic reflection and refraction models. This allowed us to provide spatially continuous information about aquifer properties and processes. Thus, we have determined the thickness and continuity of the aquifer units, as well as the morphology and depth to the basement. The models revealed that the main seawater intrusion main path is found in the western deltaic area that coincides with an existing buried paleochannel. This new result explains the anomalously high chlorine concentrations observed in the deep semiconfined aquifer more than 1,500 m inland.