A Review on Researches of Active Tectonics——History, Progress and Suggestions1

This paper reviews the history and progress of research on active tectonics in China and overseas. By giving a brief introduction on the history of active tectonic research in China and other countries, the paper sums up the process and development of quantitative investigation of active tectonics since the 1980s. The focus is on the main efforts and progress made in China on certain aspects of research, such as basic surveys and applied investigation of active tectonics, the study of theories related to regional active tectonics and their kinematics and geodynamics, surveys on coupling relations between deep and shallow structures, active fault surveys and prospecting and seismic hazard assessment in urban areas, as well as the efforts made using Quaternary geochronology. Furthermore, the paper looks back on Chinese quantitative investigation of active tectonics in China and sums up cognitions derived from studies on the determination of several basic and measurable parameters of active tectonics. These parameters include the length of fault and fault segmentation, coseismic slip and cumulative slip, fault slip rate, the sequence of paleoearthquake events and the time elapsed since the most recent event. At the same time, efforts and progress made in China on assessing the long-term seismic potential for active faults and evaluating the risk from potential active fault movement have been reviewed by summarizing research on developing theories, models, methods and the application of time-dependent seismic potential to prohabilistic assessment, magnitude estimation for potential earthquakes on active faults, and the forecast of potential risk caused by active fault movement. Finally, in consideration of the realities and problems in the research of active tectonics in China, the authors put forward several suggestions for issues worthy of more attention for further investigation in the future.     

A Review on Researches of Active Tectonics—History,Progress and Suggestions

This paper reviews the history and progress of research on active tectonics in China and overseas.By giving a brief introduction on the history of active tectonic research in China and other countries,the paper sums up the process and development of quantitative investigation of active tectonics since the 1980s.The focus is on the main efforts and progress made in China on certain aspects of research,such as basic surveys and applied investigation of active tectonics,the study of theories related to regional active tectonics and their kinematics and geodynamics,surveys on coupling relations between deep and shallow structures,active fault surveys and prospecting and seismic hazard assessment in urban areas,as well as the efforts made using Quaternary geochronology.Furthermore,the paper looks back on Chinese quantitative investigation of active tectonics in China and sums up cognitions derived from studies on the determination of several basic and measurable parameters of active tectonics.These parameters include the length of fault and fault segmentation,coseismic slip and cumulative slip,fault slip rate,the sequence of paleoearthquake events and the time elapsed since the most recent event.At the same time,efforts and progress made in China on assessing the long-term seismic potential for active faults and evaluating the risk from potential active fault movement have been reviewed by summarizing research on developing theories,models,methods and the application of time-dependent seismic potential to probabilistic assessment,magnitude estimation for potential earthquakes on active faults,and the forecast of potential risk caused by active fault movement.Finally,in consideration of the realities and problems in the research of active tectonics in China,the authors put forward several suggestions for issues worthy of more attention for further investigation in the future.     

A review of: “Quantitative hydrogeology—groundwater hydrology for engineers”

Abstract

by Ghislain de Marsily, Academic Press, vii+440 pp. U.S. $29.95 (ISBN 0-12-208916-2) 1986.     

Corona Satellite Pictures for Archaeological Studies: A Review and Application to the Lost Forbidden City of the Han–Wei Dynasties

This paper provides a state of the art of the use of declassified satellite Corona for archaeological application and deals with the use of historical archives of Corona and aerial photographs for detecting ancient hidden cultural relics that may be completely lost in the modern landscape veiled by current land uses and land covers. Geospatial analysis is adopted to identify, extract and map the subtle archaeological features and cultural landscape of the lost Han–Wei Forbidden City in the Henan Province (China). It was one of the most important cities of ancient China, served as the capital for a long period, from the Eastern Zhou (2600 BP, Zhou Dynasty) to the Eastern Han and Wei Dynasties (1900–1500 BP). Outputs from our investigations clearly provided evidence of numerous buried structures of potential archaeological interest that were compared with historical documentation and excavations carried out in the area. The geospatial analysis, applied both to aerial photograph and to Corona pictures, enabled us to discover a number of unknown sub-palaces and structures, thus providing new insights for this important archaeological area.     

A Tectonophysical Analysis of Earthquake Frequency—Size Relationship Types for Catastrophic Earthquakes in Central Asia

We performed a tectonophysical analysis of earthquake frequency–size relationship types for large Central Asian earthquakes in the regions of dynamical influence due to major earthquake-generating faults based on data for the last 100 years. We identified four types of frequency–size curves, depending on the presence/absence of characteristic earthquakes and the presence or absence of a downward bend in the tail of the curve. This classification by the shape of the tail in frequency–size relationships correlates well with the values of the maximum observed magnitude. Thus, faults of the first type (there are characteristic earthquakes, but no downward bend) with M_max ≥ 8.0 are classified as posing the highest seismic hazard; faults with characteristic earthquakes and a bend, and with M_max = 7.5–7.9, are treated as rather hazardous; faults of the third type with M_max = 7.1–7.5 are treated as posing potential hazard; and lastly, faults with a bend, without characteristic earthquakes, and with a typical magnitude M_max ≤ 7.0, are classified as involving little hazard. The tail types in frequency–size curves are interpreted using the model of a nonlinear multiplicative cascade. The model can be used to treat different tail types as corresponding to the occurrence/nonoccurrence of nonlinear positive and negative feedback in earthquake rupture zones, with this feedback being responsible for the occurrence of earthquakes with different magnitudes. This interpretation and clustering of earthquake-generating faults by the behavior the tail of the relevant frequency–size plot shows raises the question about the physical mechanisms that underlie this behavior. We think that the occurrence of great earthquakes is related to a decrease in effective strength (viscosity) in the interblock space of faults at a scale appropriate to the rupture zone size.     

A comparative study of three neural network forecast combination methods for simulated river flows of different rainfall—runoff models

Abstract

The performances of three artificial neural network (NN) methods for combining simulated river flows, based on three different neural network structures, are compared. These network structures are: the simple neural network (SNN), the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and the multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN). Daily data of eight catchments, located in different parts of the world, and having different hydrological and climatic conditions, are used to enable comparisons of the performances of these three methods to be made. In the case of each catchment, each neural network combination method synchronously uses the simulated river flows of four rainfall—runoff models operating in design non-updating mode to produce the combined river flows. Two of these four models are black-box, the other two being conceptual models. The results of the study show that the performances of all three combination methods are, on average, better than that of the best individual rainfall—runoff model utilized in the combination, i.e. that the combination concept works. In terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index, the MLPNN combination method generally performs better than the other two combination methods tested. For most of the catchments, the differences in the efficiency index values of the SNN and the RBFNN combination methods are not significant but, on average, the SNN form performs marginally better than the more complex RBFNN alternative. Based on the results obtained for the three NN combination methods, the use of the multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) is recommended as the appropriate NN form for use in the context of combining simulated river flows.     

Use of brGDGTs in surface geochemical exploration for petroleum —A case study of oil and gas fields in the Jiyang depression

Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers(brGDGTs),likely produced by bacteria in soil and peat,are widely distributed,easily detected,newly adopted biomarker compounds.In this study,brGDGTs were used to explore the relationship between the absolute abundance of brGDGTs and the distribution of oil and gas fields in the Duoshiqiao area of the Jiyang depression.The results showed that the concentrations at the Xiakou fault and in the oil and gas fields were obviously higher than those in the contrast areas.The clear relationship among the concentration of brGDGTs,the distribution of oil and gas fields,and the acidolysis hydrocarbon(ethane)indicates that the concentration effectively responds to hydrocarbon seeps from the oil and gas field below.brGDGTs may become some of the most important indicators in surface geochemical prospecting for oil and gas.     

Determination of paleo-pressure for a natural gas pool formation based on PVT characteristics of fluid inclusions in reservoir rocks——A case study of Upper-Paleozoic deep basin gas trap of the Ordos Basin

~~Determination of paleo-pressure for a natural gas pool formation based on PVT characteristics of fluid inclusions in reservoir rocks——A case study of Upper-Paleozoic deep basin gas trap of the Ordos Basin~~     

Searching for an Earthquake Precursor—A Case Study of Precursory Swarm as a Real Seismic Pattern Before Major Shocks

A long-range correlation between earthquakes is indicated by some phenomena precursory to strong earthquakes. Most of the major earthquakes show prior seismic activity that in hindsight seems anomalous. The features include changes in regional activity rate and changes in the pattern of small earthquakes, including alignments on unmapped linear features near the (future) main shock. It has long been suggested that large earthquakes are preceded by observable variations in regional seismicity. Studies on seismic precursors preceding large to great earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were carried out in the northeast India region bounded by the area 20°–32°N and 88°–100°E using the earthquake database from 1853 to 1988. It is observed that all earthquakes of M ≥ 7.5, including the two great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950, were preceded by abnormally low anomalous seismicity phases some 11–27 years prior to their occurrence. On the other hand, precursory time periods ranged from 440 to 1,768 days for main shocks with M 5.6–6.5 for the period from 1963 to 1988. Furthermore, the 6 August, 1988 main shock of M 7.5 in the Arakan Yoma fold belt was preceded by well-defined patterns of anomalous seismicity that occurred during 1963–1964, about 25.2 years prior to its occurrence. The pattern of anomalous seismicity in the form of earthquake swarms preceding major earthquakes in the northeast India region can be regarded as one of the potential seismic precursors. Database constraints have been the main barrier to searching for this precursor preceding smaller earthquakes, which otherwise might have provided additional information on its existence. The entire exercise indicates that anomalous seismicity preceding major shocks is a common seismic pattern for the northeast India region, and can be employed for long-range earthquake prediction when better quality seismological data sets covering a wide range of magnitudes are available. Anomalous seismic activity is distinguished by a much higher annual frequency of earthquake occurrence than in the preceding normal and the following gap episodes.