Modeling study of growth and potential geohazard for LUSI mud volcano: East Java,Indonesia

The mud volcano known as LUSI first erupted in May 2006 in East Java, Indonesia. The eruption has continued for over two years, and potentially will continue for many years to come, impacting an ever larger area. An obvious and significant question is how extensive the impacted area will become in the coming years. The answer is important for planning scenarios for the relocation of people and infrastructure and for managing the environment and economy. To make such a prediction, an understanding of the geological processes controlling the mud volcanic evolution is needed.     

渤、黄、东海M2和K1分潮潮流场的有限元模拟

使用有限元模式(QUODDY)数值模拟了渤、黄、东海浅水区的M2和K1分潮潮流场。对于M2分潮潮流场,东分量和北分量的潮流调和常数与16个测站观测资料的平均绝对误差分别为8.23 cm/s,23.74°();7.36 cm/s,27.78(°)。对于K1分潮潮流场,则分别为8.39 cm/s,36.48(°);9.40 cm/s,38.04(°)。文中得到的M2分潮流在模拟海区共有9个圆流点(秦皇岛附近1个,莱州湾口1个,山东半岛北部海域2个,黄海北部2个,苏北辐射沙洲的外侧1个,舟山群岛东南海域2个)。K1分潮流在模拟海域也存在9个圆流点(秦皇岛附近1个,莱州湾口1个,北黄海2个,南黄海1个,苏北辐射沙洲的外侧1个,济州岛东南海域3个),其中黄海北部偏北的圆流点(39°25′N,123°05′E)和济州岛东南海域最东南的圆流点(32°50′N,127°50′E)以前未见过报道。