Perceptible earthquakes in the broad Aegean area

A probabilistic estimate of seismic hazard can be obtained from the spatial distribution, of earthquake sources, their frequency–magnitude distribution and the rate of attenuation of strong ground motion with distance. We calculate the earthquake perceptibility, i.e. the annual probability that a particular level of ground shaking will be generated by earthquakes of particular magnitude, by weighting frequency–magnitude data with the predicted felt area for a given level of ground shaking at a particular magnitude. This provides an earthquake selection criterion that can be used in the anti-seismic design of non-critical structures. We calculate the perceptibility, at a particular value of isoseismal intensity, peak ground acceleration and velocity, as a function of source magnitude and frequency for the broad Aegean area using local attenuation laws. We use frequency–magnitude distributions that were previously obtained by combining short-term catalogue data with tectonic moment rate data for 14 tectonic zones in Greece with sufficient earthquake data, and where contemporary strain rates are available from satellite data. Many of the zones show a ‘characteristic earthquake’ distribution with the most perceptible earthquake equal to the maximum magnitude earthquake, but a relatively flat perceptibility between magnitudes 6 and 7. The maximum perceptible magnitude is in the fastest-deforming region in the middle of the Aegean sea, and tends to be systematically low on the west in comparison to the east of the Aegean sea. The tectonic data strongly constrain the long-term recurrence rates and lead to low error estimates (±0.2) in the most perceptible magnitudes.     

Distribution of clay minerals in surface sediments of the Aegean Sea: a compilation

Extensive published data sets and some new data on the clay mineral composition of surface sediments in the Aegean Sea, northeastern Mediterranean Sea, have been compiled in order to map the distribution patterns of clay mineral assemblages and to decipher source areas and transport paths. We distinguished six provinces, a Northwest Aegean Province, a Marmara-Dardanelles Province, a West Turkey Province, a Southeast Aegean Province, a Kithira Province and a Central Aegean Province. The clay mineral assemblages in the coastal and shelf areas carry the signature of the riverine sediment discharge from southeast Europe and Turkey, respectively. The southern Aegean Sea is probably influenced by the River Nile discharge and transport of clay minerals by surface currents. The clay minerals in the central Aegean Sea form a mixed assemblage comprising components of the other assemblages. A dispersion and dilution of clay minerals by surface currents is obvious.     

Long-term earthquake prediction in the North Pacific seismic zone based on the time and magnitude predictable model

Earthquake recurrence intervals for large and great shallow mainshocks in 12 seismogenic sources along the North Pacific seismic zone (Alaska-Aleutians-Kamchatka-Kuril Islands) have been estimated and used for the determination of the following relations:

Fate of the Evros River suspended particulate matter in the northern Aegean Sea

Evros River is the most important river flowing into the North Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean) in terms of freshwater discharge, and the second largest one of Eastern Europe after the Danube River. Salinity and temperature measurements, together with suspended particulate matter concentrations were obtained in various depths at 14 stations in the adjacent Alexandroupolis Gulf during four seasons (June 1998, September 1998, February 1999 and March 2000) in order to investigate the particle dynamics and distributions in the northern Aegean Sea. Analysis of the collected data, together with particle observations under the scanning electron microscope and study of satellite images showed that, under certain circumstances driven by the hydrological and wind regime of the area, the Evros River particulate matter, with the associated pollutants, can be transferred far away from the estuary and implicitly comprise a hazardous factor for the environmental status of the northern Aegean Sea. This fact, combined with the future construction of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline, may cause a negative impact on the studied natural ecosystem.     

Application of a probabilistic model to vrancea intermediate earthquakes

The seismic hazard parameters of the Vrancea seismogenic region are derived by applying a probabilistic model (the Epstein-Lomnitz model) making use of the first type of Gumbel distribution. The extreme value data are of two types: macroseismic data (1901–1933) and instrumental data (1934–1991). The output parameters (In = 8.30; = 1.67), for the set I and (In = 9.33; = 1.87) for the set II allow a more reliable estimation of the basic hazard parameters and they are discussed and compared with previous works.     

Space and time distribution of the intermediate focal depth earthquakes in the Hellenic arc

Accurately determined focal coordinates of earthquakes which occurred in the Hellenic arc between 1964 and 1979 have been used to check the suggestion made ten years ago for a Benioff zone in the Hellenic arc. These recent data leave no doubt that the foci of the intermediate focal depth earthquakes in the Hellenic arc form a well-developed Benioff zone of amphitheatrical shape which dips from the convex (eastern Mediterranean) to the concave (Aegean) part of the arc.

Evidence, based on the time distribution of the intermediate focal depth earthquakes in the Hellenic arc during the last two centuries, indicates that this deep seismic activity follows a periodic pattern. Quiescence periods of the order of six decades are followed by very active periods of about two decades. If this periodicity, which seems to be compatible with recent ideas on the deep tectonics of the area, is true, a new period of high-rate intermediate focal depth activity is expected to break in about twenty five years.     

基于EMD组合模型的径流多尺度预测

受全球气候变化与人类活动影响,径流序列愈发呈现出非稳态与非线性特征,为降低由此而引发的预报误差,充分发挥不同模型对提高径流预测精度的优势,针对传统径流预报模型的单一性,以干旱区典型内陆河玛纳斯河为例,采用经验模态分解(EMD)提取径流序列中具有物理含义的信号,得到不同时间尺度的多个固有模态函数(IMF)及1个趋势项,利...     

High-Si phengite records the time of greenschist facies overprinting: implications for models suggesting mega-detachments in the Aegean Sea

In the lower main unit of the Attic‐Cycladic crystalline belt (Greece), white mica geochronology (Rb–Sr, K–Ar, ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar) has established the timing of at least two metamorphic events: well‐preserved high‐pressure/low‐temperature (HP/LT) rocks yielded Eocene ages (c. 53–40 Ma) and their greenschist facies counterparts provided Oligocene–Miocene dates (c. 25–18 Ma). Marbles from Tinos Island contain high‐Si phengite with Rb–Sr (phengite–calcite) and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar white mica ages between 41 and 24 Ma. All Ar age spectra are disturbed and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar total fusion ages generally are 3–6 Ma older than corresponding Rb–Sr ages. Due to the polymetamorphic history, we consider inheritance from the HP stage as the most likely cause for the complex Ar age spectra and the older ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dates. This concept also suggests that the Rb–Sr system is more sensitive to modification during overprinting than the Ar isotope system, because resetting of the Sr isotope system can be accomplished more quickly by Sr exchange with other Ca‐rich phases, whereas lack of pervasive deformation and/or restricted availability of synmetamorphic fluids has favoured partial inheritance of the Ar isotope system. On Tinos, the lowermost part of the metamorphic succession has experienced a pervasive greenschist facies overprint. Si‐rich phengite from marbles representing this lithostratigraphic level yielded Rb–Sr ages of c. 24 Ma. If the earlier metamorphic history is not taken into account, such data sets may lead to the erroneous conclusion of Miocene HP metamorphism. This study indicates that this phengite experienced pervasive rejuvenation of the Rb–Sr isotope system during overprinting, without significant changes in Si content, due to bulk‐compositional constraints. This leads to the conclusion that in the absence of critical mineral assemblages the Si value of phengite is not a reliable indicator for metamorphic pressures in impure marbles. Recent studies have reported large displacements (>100 km) for detachment faults in the Aegean Sea. A critical parameter for such models is the age of HP metamorphism as deduced from white mica dating in the basal units of the Cyclades. We question the underlying idea of Miocene HP metamorphism and suggest, instead, that this age constrains the timing of the greenschist facies overprint and that the existence of mega‐detachments in the study area requires further investigation.     

Documentary and Geological Records of Tsunamis in the Aegean Sea Region of Greece and their Potential Value to Risk Assessment and Disaster Management

Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together.     

Neotectonic structures in the area offshore of Alaçatı, Doğanbey and Kuşadası (western Turkey): evidence of strike-slip faulting in the Aegean extensional province

About 400 km of new seismic reflection data has been acquired in the study region offshore of Alaçatı, Doğanbey, and Kuşadası, which enables investigation of the active crustal deformation in this region. The deformation onshore in western Turkey is dominated by crustal extension, and clear evidence of this process is also now available from this offshore area. However, in the onshore area adjacent to this study region evidence of active right-lateral strike-slip faulting has also previously been observed. This strike-slip faulting has previously been thought only to accommodate variations in extension between adjacent normal faults. However, in the offshore area there is considerable evidence of zones of deformation, some of which may link to the strike-slip faulting onshore, suggesting that strike-slip faulting may be of greater importance in this region than previously thought.     

A source study of the 6 July 2003 (Mw 5.7) earthquake sequence in the Gulf of Saros (Northern Aegean Sea): Seismological evidence for the western continuation of the Ganos fault

The July 2003 sequence in the Gulf of Saros (Northeastern Aegean Sea) is investigated, in terms of accurate event locations and source properties of the largest events. The distribution of epicenters shows the activation of a 25-km long zone, which extends in depth between 9 and 20 km. The major slip patch of the 6 July 2003 M_w 5.7 mainshock is confined in a small area (45 km²), which coincides with the deeper (12–20 km) part of the activated zone. The epicenters of the sequence follow the northern margin of the Saros depression. This observation supports recent studies, according to which the continuation of the Ganos fault in the Gulf of Saros does not coincide with the fault along the northern coast of the Gelibolu peninsula, but it is located at the northern boundary of the Saros depression. This is further supported by the fact that the focal mechanisms of the mainshock and of the largest aftershocks of the 2003 sequence imply almost pure dextral strike-slip faulting, whereas the fault bounding the Gulf of Saros to the south appears as a normal fault on seismic sections. Thus, we infer that the principle deformation zone consists of a major strike-slip fault, which lies close to the northern margin of the Saros depression and this fault could be regarded as the continuation of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault into the Saros Gulf and North Aegean Trough as suggested by regional tectonic models. The northeastern extent of the 2003 sequence marks the western termination (at 26.3° E) of a long-term seismic quiescence observed in the period following the 1912 Ganos earthquake, which may be associated with the extend of the rupture of the particular earthquake.     

基于循环神经网络的找矿模型构建与预测

在大数据和人工智能背景下,基于已有的传统地质找矿模型建立与应用基础,提出基于循环神经网络的找矿模型构建与预测方法,实现对地质数据的深入分析和理解。针对地质找矿模型构建与预测的需求,结合数据清洗理论,对传统地质找矿模型进行归纳与总结,建立地质找矿知识库,为深度学习算法提供训练数据。通过分类算法研究,综合对比结果的准确率与分类所用时间,最终选用RNN分类算法对找矿概念模型进行分类。在建立研究区找矿模型中,通过关键词与控矿要素完成模型匹配,利用模型计算对模型匹配结果进行数据分析,实现区域地质找矿模型的构建与矿产资源的预测评价和分析。以大水金矿为例,快速准确地实现了找矿模型的构建,有效地对矿产资源预测工作提供了指导,验证了该方法的可行性。     

满洲里南部地区铀成矿靶区综合预测

依据克鲁伦-额尔古纳多金属成矿带内火山岩型铀矿的找矿模式,建立了满洲里南部地区火山岩型铀矿综合找矿模型;应用专家打分法综合中比例尺多源成矿信息,完成了满洲里南部地区火山岩型铀矿成矿靶区综合评价,取得了较好的预测效果。     

Attenuation of shear-waves in the back-arc region of the Hellenic arc for frequencies from 0.6 to 16 Hz

Q_β for shear-waves is determined for the inner part of the Hellenic arc, the back-arc area, as a function of frequency in the range 0.6–16 Hz. We used 314 digital records from 32 earthquakes with magnitudes (M_w) ranging from 3.9 to 5.1. Epicentral distances ranged from 65 to 515 km. The data were obtained in 1997 during a 6-month operation of a digital portable network in Greece. The Q_β estimates were made for five frequency bands centred at 0.8, 1.5, 3.0, 6.0 and 12.0 Hz and the Q_β values obtained were 47, 79, 143, 271 and 553, respectively. The results show that Q_β for S-waves increases with frequency taking the form Q_β=55f ^0.91 (or Q_β⁻¹0.018f^−0.91). The high attenuation and the strong frequency dependence found, which is close to the frequency dependence of coda Q for Greece, are characteristic of an area with high seismicity, rapid extension, and in agreement with other similar studies in Greece.     

Stratigraphy of the Kos Plateau Tuff: product of a major Quaternary explosive rhyolitic eruption in the eastern Aegean, Greece

 The Kos Plateau Tuff (KPT) erupted during a moderate-volume explosive rhyolitic event approximately 161 ka from a source south of Kos in the eastern Aegean sea. Six major stratigraphic units have been identified, from A at the base, to F, uppermost. Unit A is a widespread vitric ash fall layer that is thickest (1.5 m), and most extensive, southeast of the source. Unit B is a 1- to 2-m-thick, low-angle cross-stratified armoured pumice lapilli and ash layer found on Kos. Unit C resembles unit B but includes a greater abundance of lithic lapilli, less fine ash, is only diffusely stratified and is on Kos and west of the source. Unit D includes a sequence of three non-welded, 1- to 20-m-thick ignimbrites that extend radially >38 km from the source in areas of low topography. Unit E is a sequence of two non-welded, 3- to 8-m-thick ignimbrites which occur radially from the vent regardless of topography, >64 km from source. Unit F has a 6-m-thick, basal, low-angle cross-stratified armoured pumice lapilli and ash part probably deposited radially from source. The upper part of unit F is a widespread >1-m-thick vitric ash fall layer, found to at least 50 km from the source. These six units represent a change in eruptive conditions from initial and final phreatomagmatic activity depositing fallout and internally stratified pyroclastic density current deposits to "dry" explosive during the more intense phases of the eruption which generated ignimbrites. Received: 8 June 1998 / Accepted: 14 January 1999     

基于Weibull曲线的软基沉降预测模型分析

结合软基沉降机理,提出用Weibull模型预测软基沉降全过程。该预测模型参数意义较为明确,可以反映加载速度等因素的影响,克服了其它两种成长模型反弯点处沉降值与最终沉降相对不变的缺点。在利用其它模型预测时,只有初步判断实测样本反弯点的位置才能较科学的选择有效样本和相应模型进行预测。Weibull模型可以充分利用沉降观测样本,具有广泛的适应性,指数模型是它的一种退化形式。它不但可以预测线性加载的软基沉降,而且可以预测一次加载或近似一次加载的软基沉降。工程实例的实测和计算比较说明该模型是可靠的。     

基于应变空间多机构CG模型的地震液化大变形数值分析

砂土液化导致的地基侧向大变形是地震中许多重要的工程设施和建筑物破坏的主要原因之一。简要介绍了可进行液化大变形分析的散粒体材料本构模型--应变空间多机构CG模型,基于FLIP ROSE程序平台,建立了预测和研究倾斜地基砂土液化导致侧向大变形的二维有限元数值分析方法。采用该模型对相同工况的土工动态离心模型试验进行了模拟,通过对比超孔隙水压力、剪切波水平加速度以及地基侧向位移发现,数值预测与试验结果吻合良好,从而验证了该有限元数值分析模型的可靠性。最后利用该数值分析模型预测了倾斜率不同的地基受到相同剪切波作用时,倾斜地基不同深度产生的侧向位移。预测结果显示,随着地基深度的减小,倾斜率对于地震液化导致倾斜地基侧向大变形的影响越来越显著。     

Tectonic evolution of the southern margin of Laurasia in the Black Sea region

The Black Sea region comprises Gondwana-derived continental blocks and oceanic subduction complexes accreted to Laurasia. The core of Laurasia is made up of an Archaean–Palaeoproterozoic shield, whereas the Gondwana-derived blocks are characterized by a Neoproterozoic basement. In the early Palaeozoic, a Pontide terrane collided and amalgamated to the core of Laurasia, as part of the Avalonia–Laurasia collision. From the Silurian to Carboniferous, the southern margin of Laurasia was a passive margin. In the late Carboniferous, a magmatic arc, represented by part of the Pontides and the Caucasus, collided with this passive margin with the Carboniferous eclogites marking the zone of collision. This Variscan orogeny was followed by uplift and erosion during the Permian and subsequently by Early Triassic rifting. Northward subduction under Laurussia during the Late Triassic resulted in the accretion of an oceanic plateau, whose remnants are preserved in the Pontides and include Upper Triassic eclogites. The Cimmeride orogeny ended in the Early Jurassic, and in the Middle Jurassic the subduction jumped south of the accreted complexes, and a magmatic arc was established along the southern margin of Laurasia. There is little evidence for subduction during the latest Jurassic–Early Cretaceous in the eastern part of the Black Sea region, which was an area of carbonate sedimentation. In contrast, in the Balkans there was continental collision during this period. Subduction erosion in the Early Cretaceous removed a large crustal slice south of the Jurassic magmatic arc. Subduction in the second half of the Early Cretaceous is evidenced by eclogites and blueschists in the Central Pontides and by a now buried magmatic arc. A continuous extensional arc was established only in the Late Cretaceous, coeval with the opening of the Black Sea as a back-arc basin.     

Active right-lateral strike-slip fault zone along the southern margin of the Japan Sea

We describe an active right-lateral strike-slip fault zone along the southern margin of the Japan Sea, named the Southern Japan Sea Fault Zone (SJSFZ). Onshore segments of the fault zone are delineated on the basis of aerial photograph interpretations and field observations of tectonic geomorphic features, whereas the offshore parts are interpreted from single-/multichannel seismic data combined with borehole information. In an effort to evaluate late Quaternary activity along the fault zone, four active segments separated by uplifting structures are identified in this study. The east–northeast-trending SJSFZ constitutes paired arc-parallel strike-slip faults together with the Median Tectonic Line (MTL), both of which have been activated by oblique subduction of the Philippine Sea plate during the Quaternary. They act as the boundaries of three neotectonic stress domains around the eastern margin of the Eurasian plate: the near-trench Outer zone and NW–SE compressive Inner zone of southwest Japan arc, and the southern Japan Sea deformed under E–W compression from south to north.     

Seasonal cycle of hydrography in the Bab el Mandab region,southern Red Sea

The seasonal cycle of temperature—salinity variations in the Bab el Mandab region (southern Red Sea) is described using CTD data collected during four cruises spread over the period May 1995—August 1997. A two layer system exists during early summer, winter and spring while a three layer system exists during summer. During summer, a large amount of the Gulf of Aden water intrudes into the Bab el Mandab region; up to the northern limit (14.5‡N). The quantity of Red Sea water that flows into the Gulf of Aden is maximum during the winter and minimum during the summer