Model estimates for the mean gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere under the conditions of the present-day climate and its changes expected in the 21st century

Annual mean fluxes of CO₂ and oxygen across the sea surface are estimated with the use of numerical modeling for several regions located in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio zones. The present-day climatic conditions and the climatic conditions expected in the middle and at the end of the 21st century are considered. Specific features of gas exchange under a strong wind that are associated with gas exchange by bubbles and with changes in the air-water difference of the gas concentrations were taken into account in the calculations. The estimates obtained differ substantially from the results based on the traditional approach, which disregards the above features. A considerable increase in the absorption of CO₂ by the ocean, which is mainly caused by the continuing increase in the CO₂ concentration in the air during its small changes in the ocean, is expected in the 21st century. At the same time, no trends are revealed in the annual mean fluxes of oxygen across the ocean surface. The conclusion is made that, in calculations of CO₂ absorption by the world ocean, it is necessary to take into account both specific features of gas transfer under a strong wind and an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂.     

One-dimensional modelling of convective CO2 exchange in the Tropical Atlantic

Diurnal changes in seawater temperature affect the amount of air–sea gas exchange taking place through changes in solubility and buoyancy-driven nocturnal convection, which enhances the gas transfer velocity. We use a combination of in situ and satellite derived radiometric measurements and a modified version of the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM), which includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coupled-Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment (NOAA-COARE) air–sea gas transfer parameterization, to investigate heat and carbon dioxide exchange over the diurnal cycle in the Tropical Atlantic. A new term based on a water-side convective velocity scale (w_*w) is included, to improve parameterization of convectively driven gas transfer. Meteorological data from the PIRATA mooring located at 10°S10°W in the Tropical Atlantic are used, in conjunction with cloud cover estimates from Meteosat-7, to calculate fluxes of longwave, latent and sensible heat along with a heat budget and temperature profiles during February 2002. Twin model experiments, representing idealistic and realistic conditions, reveal that over daily time scales the additional contribution to gas exchange from convective overturning is important. Increases in transfer velocity of up to 20% are observed during times of strong insolation and low wind speeds (<6 m s⁻¹); the greatest enhancement from w_*w to the CO₂ flux occurs when diurnal warming is large. Hence, air–sea fluxes of CO₂ calculated using simple parameterizations underestimate the contribution from convective processes. The results support the need for parameterizations of gas transfer that are based on more than wind speed alone and include information about the heat budget.     

Natural air–sea flux of CO2 in simulations of the NASA-GISS climate model: Sensitivity to the physical ocean model formulation

Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO₂ gas exchange (natural flux of CO₂) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air–sea flux of CO₂. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air–sea flux of CO₂, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO₂) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).     

Carbon dioxide flux techniques performed during GasEx-98

A comprehensive study of air–sea interactions focused on improving the quantification of CO₂ fluxes and gas transfer velocities was performed within a large open ocean CO₂ sink region in the North Atlantic. This study, GasEx-98, included shipboard measurements of direct covariance CO₂ fluxes, atmospheric CO₂ profiles, atmospheric DMS profiles, water column mass balances of CO₂, and measurements of deliberate SF₆–³He tracers, along with air–sea momentum, heat, and water vapor fluxes. The large air–sea differences in partial pressure of CO₂ caused by a springtime algal bloom provided high signals for accurate CO₂ flux measurements. Measurements were performed over a wind speed range of 1–16 m s⁻¹ during the three-week process study. This first comparison between the novel air-side and more conventional water column measurements of air–sea gas transfer show a general agreement between independent air–sea gas flux techniques. These new advances in open ocean air–sea gas flux measurements demonstrate the progress in the ability to quantify air–sea CO₂ fluxes on short time scales. This capability will help improve the understanding of processes controlling the air–sea fluxes, which in turn will improve our ability to make regional and global CO₂ flux estimates.     

Global air-sea surface carbon dioxide transfer velocity and flux estimated using 17 a altimeter data and a new algorithm

The global distributions of the air-sea CO2 transfer velocity and flux are retrieved from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter data from October 1992 to December 2009 using a combined algorithm. The 17 a average global, area-weighted, Schmidt number-corrected mean gas transfer velocity is 21.26 cm/h, and the full exploration of the uncertainty of this estimate awaits further data. The average total CO2 flux （calculated by carbon） from atmosphere to ocean during the 17 a was 2.58 Pg/a. The highest transfer velocity is in the circumpolar current area, because of constant high wind speeds and currents there. This results in strong CO2 fluxes. CO2 fluxes are strong but opposite direction in the equatorial east Pacific Ocean, because the air-sea CO2 partial pressure difference is the largest in the global cceans. The results differ from the previous studies calculated using the wind speed. It is demonstrated that the air-sea transfer velocity is very important for estimating air-sea CO2 flux. It is critical to have an accurate estimation for improving calculation of CO2 flux within climate change studies.     

Air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux by eddy covariance technique in the equatorial Indian Ocean

Direct measurements of the air-sea CO₂ flux by the eddy covariance technique were carried out in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The turbulent flux observation system was installed at the top of the foremast of the R/V MIRAI, thus minimizing dynamical and thermal effects of the ship body. During the turbulent flux runs around the two stations, the vessel was steered into the wind at constant speed. The power spectra of the temperature or water vapor density fluctuations followed the Kolmogorov −5/3 power law, although that of the CO₂ density fluctuation showed white noise in the high frequency range. However, the cospectrum of the vertical wind velocity and CO₂ density was well matched with those of the vertical velocity and temperature or water vapor density in this frequency range, and the CO₂ white noise did not influence the CO₂ flux. The raw CO₂ fluxes due to the turbulent transport showed a sink from the air to the ocean, and had almost the same value as the source CO₂ fluxes due to the mean vertical flow, corrected by the sensible and latent heat fluxes (called the Webb correction). The total CO₂ fluxes including the Webb correction terms showed a source from the ocean to the air, and were larger than the bulk CO₂ fluxes estimated using the gas transfer velocity by mass balance techniques.     

Gas exchange rates measured using a dual-tracer (SF6 and3he) method in the coastal waters of Korea

Over a period of 5 days between August 12 and 17, 2005, we performed a gas exchange experiment using the dual tracer method in a tidal coastal ocean located off the southern coast of Korea. The gas exchange rate was determined from temporal changes in the ratio of³He to SF₆ measured daily in the surface mixed layer. The measured gas exchange rate (k _{CO 2}), normalized to a Schmidt number of 600 for CO₂ in fresh water at 20°C, was approximately 5.0 cm h^-1 at a mean wind speed of 3.9 m s^-1 during the study period. This value is significantly less than those obtained from floating chamber-based experiments performed previously in estuarine environments, but is similar in magnitude to values obtained using the dual tracer method in river and tidal coastal waters and values predicted on the basis of the relationship between the gas exchange rate and wind speed (Wanninkhof 1992), which is generally applicable to the open ocean. Our result is also consistent with the relationship of Raymond and Cole (2001), which was derived from experiments carried out in estuarine environments using²²²Rn and chlorofluorocarbons along with measurements undertaken in the Hudson River, Canada, using SF⁶ and³He. Our results indicate that tidal action in a microtidal region did not discernibly enhance the measuredk _{CO 2} value.     

Global air-sea surface carbon-dioxide transfer velocity and flux estimated using ERS-2 data and a new parametric formula

Using data from the European remote sensing scatterometer（ERS-2） from July 1997 to August 1998,global distributions of the air-sea CO₂ transfer velocity and flux are retrieved.A new model of the air-sea CO₂ transfer velocity with surface wind speed and wave steepness is proposed.The wave steepness（5） is retrieved using a neural network（NN） model from ERS-2 scatterometer data,while the wind speed is directly derived by the ERS-2 scatterometer.The new model agrees well with the formulations based on the wind speed and the variation in the wind speed dependent relationships presented in many previous studies can be explained by this proposed relation with variation in wave steepness effect.Seasonally global maps of gas transfer velocity and llux are shown on the basis of the new model and the seasonal variations of the transfer velocity and llux during the 1 a period.The global mean gas transfer velocity is 30 cm/h after area-weighting and Schmidt number correction and its accuracy remains calculation with in situ data.The highest transfer velocity occurs around 60°N and 60°S,while the lowest on the equator.The total air to sea CO₂ llux（calculated by carbon） in that year is 1.77 Pg.The strongest source of CO₂ is in the equatorial east Pacific Ocean, while the strongest sink is in the 68°N.Full exploration of the uncertainty of this estimate awaits further data.An effectual method is provided to calculate the effect of waves on the determination of air-sea CO₂ transfer velocity and fluxes with ERS-2 scatterometer data.     

A Practical bi-parameter formula of gas transfer velocity depending on wave states

The parameter that describes the kinetics of the air-sea exchange of a poorly soluble gas is the gas transfer velocity which is often parameterized as a function of wind speed. Both theoretical and experimental studies suggest that wind waves and their breaking can significantly enhance the gas exchange at the air-sea interface. A relationship between gas transfer velocity and a turbulent Reynolds number related to wind waves and their breaking is proposed based on field observations and drag coefficient formulation. The proposed relationship can be further simplified as a function of the product of wind speed and significant wave height. It is shown that this bi-parameter formula agrees quantitatively with the wind speed based parameterizations under certain wave age conditions. The new gas transfer velocity attains its maximum under fully developed wave fields, in which it is roughly dependent on the square of wind speed. This study provides a practical approach to quantitatively determine the effect of waves on the estimation of air-sea gas fluxes with routine observational data.     

Determining the influence of wind-wave breaking on the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the upper ocean and on the dependence of the turbulent kinetic energy on the stage of wind-wave development

New experimental data that make it possible to explain and predict the observed variability of turbulent-energy dissipation in the upper ocean are discussed. For this purpose, the dependence of the energy dissipation rate of breaking wind waves on their propagation velocity (see [1]) is used. The turbulent-energy dissipation values obtained earlier in [2, 3] by a direct method are compared to the results of radar measurements of individual breaking events presented in [1]. On the basis of this comparison, a strong dependence of the turbulent-energy dissipation value on the stage of wind-wave development, which is characterized by the ratio U _a /c _p (U _a is the wind speed and c _p is the phase speed of the peak of the wind-wave spectrum) is confirmed. This dependence was found earlier purely empirically. Moreover, it is shown that the theoretically obtained dependence (c _p /U _a )⁴, does not contradict the available empirical data. The results of this study opens possibilities for scientifically substantiated calculations of greenhouse-gas exchange (specifically, CO₂ exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere).     

海?气界面气体交换速率与二氧化碳气体通量的估算

海?气界面CO₂通量的估算采用块体公式,其等于气体交换速率、CO₂溶解度以及海水与大气的CO₂分压差的乘积,其中的气体交换速率通常与风速相联系,不同作者提出了气体交换速率为风速不同幂次多项式的参数化方案。本文对比了气体交换速率为风速函数的主要研究结果,发现与风速多项式的依赖关系相比,观测数据所基于的观测方法对于气体交换速率的影响更大。在此基础上,本文用多种不同的气体交换速率参数化公式计算了1982?2018年全球的CO₂通量,海洋整体上是大气CO₂的汇,赤道海区是源,南北半球40°附近的海域构成沿纬向的强吸收带。37 a间,海洋CO₂通量的年平均值(以碳计)为(?1.53±0.15) Pg/a, 1999年前,海洋吸收量逐年减小,1999年达到最小值,之后海洋吸收量开始增大,海洋吸收量的增大主要发生在南大洋。     

Deep ocean fluxes and their link to surface ocean processes and the biological pump

Intense studies of upper and deep ocean processes were carried out in the Northwestern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea) within the framework of JGOFS and related projects in order to improve our understanding of the marine carbon cycle and the ocean’s role as a reservoir for atmospheric CO₂. The results show a pronounced monsoon-driven seasonality with enhanced organic carbon fluxes into the deep-sea during the SW Monsoon and during the early and late NE Monsoon north of 10°N. The productivity is mainly regulated by inputs of nutrients from subsurface waters into the euphotic zone via upwelling and mixed layer-deepening. Deep mixing introduces light limitation by carrying photoautotrophic organisms below the euphotic zone during the peak of the NE Monsoon. Nevertheless, deep mixing and strong upwelling during the SW Monsoon provide an ecological advantage for diatoms over other photoautotrophic organisms by increasing the silica concentrations in the euphotic zone. When silica concentrations fall below 2 μmol l⁻¹, diatoms lose their dominance in the plankton community. During diatom-dominated blooms, the biological pathway of uptake of CO₂ (the biological pump) appears to be more efficient than during blooms of other organisms, as indicated by organic carbon to carbonate carbon (rain) ratios. Due to the seasonal alternation of diatom and non-diatom dominated exports, spatial variations of the annual mean rain ratios are hardly discernible along the main JGOFS transect.Data-based estimates of the annual mean impact of the biological pump on the fCO₂ in the surface water suggest that the biological pump reduces the increase of fCO₂ in the surface water caused by intrusion of CO₂-enriched subsurface water by 50–70%. The remaining 30 to 50% are attributed to CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere. Rain ratios up to 60% higher in river-influenced areas off Pakistan and in the Bay of Bengal than in the open Arabian Sea imply that riverine silica inputs can further enhance the impact of the biological pump on the fCO₂ in the surface water by supporting diatom blooms. Consequently, it is assumed that reduced river discharges caused by the damming of major rivers increase CO₂ emission by lowering silica inputs to the Arabian Sea; this mechanism probably operates in other regions of the world ocean also.     

Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N2 fixation

The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO₂ is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO₂ accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO₂ of less than 1 PgC y⁻¹, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO₂ growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.     

Summer and winter air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean

The seasonal variability of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) system in the Southern Ocean, south of 50°S, is analysed from observations obtained in January and August 2000 during OISO cruises conducted in the Indian Antarctic sector. In the seasonal ice zone, SIZ (south of 58°S), surface ocean CO₂ concentrations are well below equilibrium during austral summer. During this season, when sea-ice is not obstructing gas exchange at the air–sea interface, the oceanic CO₂ sink ranges from −2 to −4 mmol/m²/d in the SIZ. In the permanent open ocean zone, POOZ (50–58°S), surface oceanic fugacity fCO₂ increases from summer to winter. The seasonal fCO₂ variations (from 10 to 30 μatm) are relatively low compared to seasonal amplitudes observed in the subtropics or the subantarctic zones. However, these variations in the POOZ are large enough to cross the atmospheric level from summer to winter. Therefore, this region is neither a permanent CO₂ sink nor a permanent CO₂ source. In the POOZ, air–sea CO₂ fluxes calculated from observations are about −1.1 mmol/m²/d in January (a small sink) and 2.5 mmol/m²/d in August (a source). These estimates obtained for only two periods of the year need to be extrapolated on a monthly scale in order to calculate an integrated air–sea CO₂ flux on an annual basis. For doing this, we use a biogeochemical model that creates annual cycles for nitrate, inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and fCO₂. The changing pattern of ocean CO₂ summer sink and winter source is well reproduced by the model. It is controlled mainly by the balance between summer primary production and winter deep vertical mixing. In the POOZ, the annual air–sea CO₂ flux is about −0.5 mol/m²/yr, which is small compared to previous estimates based on oceanic observations but comparable to the small CO₂ sink deduced from atmospheric inverse methods. For reducing the uncertainties attached to the global ocean CO₂ sink south of the Polar Front the regional results presented here should be synthetized with historical and new observations, especially during winter, in other sectors of the Southern Ocean.     

台风期间海洋飞沫对海气湍通量的影响研究

本文以2006年9月日本以南海域的台风YAGI为例,应用黑潮延伸体附近的KEO浮标观测资料,并结合卫星遥感等融合资料,分析海洋飞沫在台风不同发展阶段对海气界面间热量通量和动量通量的影响。首先,定量地分析台风期间海洋飞沫对海气热通量的影响。结果表明,在台风YAGI过境期间,海洋飞沫能够显著地加剧海气界面间的热量交换,尤其是潜热交换。海洋飞沫增加的热通量随着风速的增强而增大,随着波龄的增大而减小。随后,通过动量分析表明,在台风YAGI过境期间,海洋飞沫显著地增强了由大气向海洋的动量转移。当风速达到台风量级后,考虑海洋飞沫所增加的动量通量与界面动量通量大小相当,同时,在此风速条件下,海洋飞沫在海气界面形成极限饱和悬浮层,抑制风到海表面的动量转移,导致海气界面间总的动量通量的增长率随之减小。     

地形和风速影响下的海气相互作用大涡模拟研究

当水流经过海洋地形时,水流的不稳定性会引起垂向混合并伴随大量湍流过程。针对传统海气耦合模式缺少在湍流尺度上讨论海洋地形与风速对海气相互作用影响的问题,使用并行大涡模拟海气耦合模式(the parallelized large eddy simulation model, PALM)在5 m/s的背景风场下,引入理想立方体地形,对比有无地形的影响;设置地形边长为L,高为3L (其中大气部分高L), L与水深H之比为L/H=1/2;然后保持地形条件不变。设置5、10和15 m/s三种风速,讨论风速对小尺度海气相互作用的影响。研究表明:地形在大气部分减弱顺风向速度,增强侧风向速度,影响0～5L的高度区域,而对垂向作用较小;无地形条件下湍流垂向涡黏系数K_m在-0.3L时,水深达到最大值0.024 m²/s,有地形条件下K_m在-0.8L时,达到最大值为0.16 m²/s,地形的存在使得上层海洋混合加强, K_m最大值增加1个数量级。随风速增大海洋和大气中的净热通量、淡水通量和浮力通量都相应...     

热带气旋下海浪对大气向海洋输入的动量和能量的影响

海浪不仅决定着海洋表面的粗糙度,由热带气旋引起的海浪,还通过其发展演化控制着大部分的海气之间的动量和能量传递。本文采用热带气旋观测数据IBTrACS和海浪模式WW III的模拟结果探究了热带气旋下海浪对大气向海洋输入的动量和能量的影响。结果发现,近30 a热带气旋的强度约每10 a增加 1 m/s,但移速没有明显变化。热带气旋的强度越大,从大气输入到海浪和从海浪输入到海流中的动量之差和能量之差也越大。由于热带气旋的风场和海浪场都有较强的不对称性,海气动量差和能量差也表现出非均匀分布:动量差较大的区域在热带气旋移动方向的后方,能量差的最大值则分布在右后象限,且二者均为左前方比较小。逆波龄与动量差和能量差呈高度正相关,相关系数约为0.95,说明波越年轻吸收的动量和能量越多。气旋移速越快逆波龄越大,且热带气旋移动速度与动量差和能量差呈正相关,相关系数在0.8以上。因此,海浪影响着大气向海洋输入的动量和能量的分布和大小,在以后关于海洋边界动力学和热力学的研究中,考虑海浪的演化可能会使结果更加准确。     

Fractionation during remineralization of organic matter in the ocean

Remineralization ratios (–O₂:P, C_org.:P, N:P) in the ocean are estimated from ocean tracer data using a new approach, which takes into account the effects of local exchange across neutral surfaces. This approach is applied to temperature, salinity, phosphate, nitrate, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, and dissolved inorganic carbon data from the low- and mid-latitude Pacific, Indian, and South Atlantic Oceans. The consideration of local exchange effects tends to reduce the –O₂:P and C_org.:P remineralization estimates above 1500 m compared to earlier estimates. Below 1500 m, exchange effects can be neglected (except in the South Atlantic) and earlier estimates appear robust. In the deep South Atlantic, the consideration of these effects leads to increased –O₂:P and C_org.:P remineralization ratio estimates, bringing them more in line with the robust deep ocean estimates. For reasonable, open ocean mixing coefficient values and several choices for phosphate remineralization rate profiles, –O₂:P (C_org.:P) remineralization ratios in the ocean increase from about 140 (100) at 750 m depth to about 170 (130) at 1500 m and remain so deeper down. Such an increase down through the upper ocean thermocline implies significant fractionation during remineralization of organic matter—nutrients are released higher in the water column than inorganic carbon. These results also argue for a –O₂:P (C_org.:P) uptake ratio in new production of about 140–150 (100–110). N:P remineralization ratios decrease from about 15 at 750 m to about 12 at 1500–2000 m. This may reflect a “true” N:P remineralization (and uptake) ratio of about 16, modified by denitrification.These results imply that applications of derived, quasi-conservative tracers, based on the assumption of constant remineralization ratios, may be subject to significant error for depths less than 1500 m. In addition, present Ocean General Circulation Models of the natural carbon cycle in the ocean–atmosphere system assume remineralization to occur without fractionation but have problems simulating observed, pre-industrial levels of atmospheric pCO₂, given observed ocean inventories of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon. Implementation of uptake and (depth-dependent) remineralization ratios estimated here would likely reduce this problem considerably. Furthermore, calculations with a simple global carbon cycle model show that fractionation in the modern ocean, as estimated in the present work, has reduced atmospheric pCO₂ by more than 20 ppm below the level it would have had without fractionation.     

海-气CO2通量实测数据通量计算中误差传递模拟与敏感性分析

海-气CO₂通量估算模型中参数的可靠性是决定模型可靠性的重要因素, 也决定了模型估算结果的可靠性, 因此开展海-气CO₂通量计算模型中误差传递规律与敏感性分析, 对模型参数端元因子的误差控制, 提高模型预测精度和降低不确定性十分重要。但由于模型中参数众多, 且各种参数间彼此相互影响, 使得误差传递过程与敏感性分析十分复杂困难。本文在海-气界面CO₂通量观测建模过程详细分析的基础上, 以海-气界面CO₂分压差的经典通量计算模型为基础, 以实测数据通量计算过程为例, 针对模型中的参数变量, 在假设参数变量的误差正态分布的前提下, 利用Monte Carlo手段分析各参数变量的误差在模型中的传递规律, 并将单因子扰动试验法用于海-气界面CO₂通量建模的参数敏感性分析。模拟和分析结果表明:CO₂通量计算过程中误差经模型传递后的分布规律存在正态分布、指数分布等多种形式;气体交换系数对通量计算结果的敏感性最大, 通量估算中的风速和表层海水温度是必须进行精度控制的关键参数。     

Validating and assessing the sensitivity of the climate model with an ocean general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences

A new version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), climate model (CM) has been developed using an ocean general circulation model instead of the statistical-dynamical ocean model applied in the previous version. The spatial resolution of the new ocean model is 3° in latitude and 5° in longitude, with 25 unevenly spaced vertical levels. In the previous version of the oceanic model, as in the atmospheric model, the horizontal resolution was 4.5° in latitude and 6° in longitude, with four vertical levels (the upper quasi-homogeneous layer, seasonal thermocline, abyssal ocean, and bottom friction layer). There is no correction for the heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean in the new version of the IAP RAS CM. Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM have been performed under current initial and boundary conditions, as well as with an increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The main simulated atmospheric and oceanic fields agree quite well with observational data. The new version’s equilibrium temperature sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ doubling was found to be 2.9 K. This value lies in the mid-range of estimates (2–4.5 K) obtained from simulations with state-of-the-art models of different complexities.