基于空间的生态足迹与生态承载力预测模型——以甘肃省河西走廊地区为例

介绍了测度可持续发展的生态足迹分析的计算方法,在此基础上提出了生态足迹和生态承载力的预测模型:在生态足迹的预测方面采用消费预测模型和人口模型相结合的方法,在生态承载力的预测方面采用地理元胞自动机和地理信息系统技术相结合的方法。以甘肃省河西走廊地区为例,采用以上模型方法计算了1995、2000年的生态足迹和生态承载力,预测了2005年的生态足迹和生态承载力,结果表明:河西走廊地区的生态足迹在逐年上升,生态承载力前5年上升后5年下降。采用该模型方法计算与预测生态足迹和生态承载力,具有快速、准确、可操作性强的特点,但预测具有一定的局限性。     

Planation surfaces in Northern Ethiopia

Planation surfaces are an old-fashioned topic in geomorphology, but they are nevertheless important where they make up much of the landscape. Northern Ethiopia is largely a stepped topography, caused by differential erosion. Exhumation of old planation surfaces that were preserved under sedimentary or volcanic cover is an important process in landscape evolution. The oldest planation surface is of early Palaeozoic age (PS1); the second is Late Triassic (PS2); and the third is of Early Cretaceous age (PS3). The Oligocene Trap Volcanics buried a surface (PS4) of early Tertiary age, which is now widely exposed by erosion as a surface that, where flat enough, is an exhumed planation surface. The surfaces do not relate to the supposed Africa-wide pediplain sequence of King [King, L.C., 1975. Planation surfaces upon highlands. Z. Geomorph. NF 20 (2), 133–148.], either in mode of formation and age. Although the region is tropical, there is scarce evidence of deep weathering and few indications that the surfaces could be regarded as etchplains. These surfaces indicate that eastern Africa underwent long episodes of tectonic quiescence during which erosion processes were able to planate the surface at altitudes not too far from sea level. Only after the onset of rifting processes, uplift became active and transformed a vast lowland plain into the present Ethiopian highlands, largely exceeding 2500 m a.s.l. Some hypotheses and speculations on the genesis of these surfaces are considered here.     

School Names as Cultural Arenas: The Naming of U.S. Public Schools after Martin Luther King,Jr.

The commemoration of slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) is a growing movement in many American cities and towns. School naming is an important yet underanalyzed part of this project. A recent struggle in Riverside, California over naming a high school for MLK is used as a springboard for: (1) conceptualizing school names as cultural arenas for debating student and community identity and (2) conducting a general study of the types of U.S. public schools named for King. As illustrated in California, school naming can be interpreted by one social group as a means of integrating and inspiring students historically and viewed by another group as a means of drawing boundaries around students in terms of race and local heritage. According to 1997-1998 data, 110 public schools bear King's name. They are located most often in the central cities of large and mid-size urban areas. King's name is most frequently found on schools that teach early and middle grades. Schools named for Martin Luther King do not necessarily denote a "Black" school in terms of the racial characteristics of students, although they do not fully integrate Whites with African Americans or Whites with minorities in general. Naming schools for King is part of a larger refashioning of the urban cultural landscape as racial and ethnic groups increasingly seek public recognition of their historical achievements.     

南极乔治王岛的地理环境分析：兼论南极地缘政治问题

作者从地理环境,尤其是气候和资源对航空、航海、科学考察的影响,讨论了南极乔治王岛地区的战略意义。根据对地质基础、矿产、火山活动以及冰川侵蚀历史和地貌现象的讨论,指出该区是研究古气候、古环境、大陆漂移和冰川冰缘地貌的极好场所;并指出该区种类全、数量多且具有南极特征的动植物和奇特的食物链关系,是其成为重要生物资源区和受条约保护的特别科学兴趣场所的主要原因;最后讨论了本区归属问题,认为《南极条约》今后可能继续生效或会制定出类似条约使本区和南极继续成为全人类的共有财富。     

THE FROST PHISICAL WEATHERING IN THE GREAT WALL STATION AREA, ANTARCTICA

Some weathering observation sites were set up at different height and face in Great Wall Station area of King Geroge Island, Antarctica, since 1989. Baced on the data series obtained from 1987-1991, the relationship between physical weathering of rock and season, height, face are discussed in this paper. We also compare the results to that of other periglacial area in the world in order to know the special features of King George Island in physical weathering of rock. The rock weathering in south-east face of sea stack is higher than that of north-west face in same environment. Get rid of influence of elevation, rock type, weathering time and organisms, the main reason which caused physical weathering of this area is climate and orientation of rock. The King George Island of Antarctica belong to high latitude area. The temperature time of below zero is 6-8 months in a year, so the process of freeze-thow is restricted. Compared with other periglacial area in the world, the weathering rate of rock is midd     

地理信息系统在南极考察和研究中的应用

GIS在南极的应用包括空间数据采集和管理、测绘和制图、科学研究、环境保护、后勤管理和决策等各个方面。 SCAR的大地测量和地理信息工作组 (WG- GGI)每两年推出一批 GIS方面的国际合作项目 ,其中南极数字数据库 (ADD)、南极地理数据集成 (AGDI)、乔治王岛 GIS(KGIS)、空间数据标准等 GIS项目已取得显著成果 ,在南极研究领域产生了广泛的影响。本文介绍了国际上在南极开展的大量 GIS应用研究 ,为我国今后在该领域开展工作提供了参考与借鉴     

Single-Site Phase Velocity Measurement

Mikumo & Aki attempted to determine phase velocities at a single site using seismometers and strainmeters oriented in the same horizontal direction. For the five earthquakes studied, they found a good agreement with the theoretically predicted velocities for body waves and, in some cases, for surface waves. Rodgers showed that for long periods (> 100 s), horizontal acceleration and tilt cannot easily be separated instrumentally, and King et al. have shown that near-station heterogeneities may result in azimuthal effects not considered by Mikumo & Aki. We rederive the method for single-site phase velocity determinations taking into account both of these effects. Our method uses strain and vertical acceleration measurements because the vertical acceleration record is neither affected by site effects nor contaminated by tilt.     

Applications of multivariate statistical analysis in remote sensing of agriculture

Rasmussen, Kjeld & Olesen, Henrik Hagen: Applications of multivariate statistical analysis in remote sensing of agriculture. Geografisk Tidsskrift 88:100–107. Copenhagen 1988.

Applications of satellite remote sensing to agriculture involve two main objectives, the identification and mapping of crops, including estimation of acreages, and monitoring of plant growth or production factors, aiming at estimation/prediction of yields.

Deterministic models of the interaction of electromagnetic radiation and plant canopies are used to relate the measured reflected or emitted radiation to crop type and agronomically relevant parameters. The great natural variation of reflectance properties of crops does, however, call for use of a statistical approach. The high dimensionality of the data-sets involved, very often more than ten, requires the use of multivariate techniques.

This paper will deal with the use of multivariate statistical techniques for both crop identification and crop monitoring based on high-resolution satellite remote sensing data, such as those produced by Landsat MSS and -TM and SPOT. Emphasis will be placed upon use of statistical methods in classification and on removal of redundancy in multi-dimensional data-sets. The relative merits of deterministic and statistical methods will be discussed as will the possibilities of incorporating spatial information into statistical methods.     

Geomagnetic field analysis—IV. Testing the frozen-flux hypothesis

Summary. We present a model of the magnetic field at the core–mantle boundary, for epoch 1959.5, based on a large set of observatory and survey measurements. Formal error estimates for the radial field at the core are 50 μT, compared with 30 and 40 μT for our previous MAGSAT (1980) and POGO (1970) models.
Current work on the determination of the velocity of the core fluid relies on the assumption that the core behaves as a perfect conductor, so that the field lines remain frozen to the fluid at the core surface. This frozen-flux condition requires that the integrated flux over patches of the core surface bounded by contours of zero radial field remain constant in time. A new method is presented for constructing core fields that satisfy these frozen-flux constraints. The constraints are non-linear when applied to main field data, unlike the case of secular variation which was considered in an earlier paper. The method is applied to datasets from epochs 1969.5 and 1959.5 to produce fields with the same flux integrals as the 1980 model.
The frozen-flux hypothesis is tested by comparing the changes in the flux integrals between 1980/1969.5, 1969.5/1959.5 and 1980/1959.5 with their errors. We find that the hypothesis can be rejected with 95 per cent confidence. The main evidence for flux diffusion is in the South Atlantic region, where a new null flux curve appears between 1960 and 1970, and continues to grow at a rapid rate from 1970 to 1980. However, the statistical result depends critically on our error estimates for the field at the core surface, which are difficult to assess with any certainty; indeed, doubling the error estimates negates the statistical argument. The conclusion is therefore, at this stage, tentative, and requires further evidence, either from older data, if good enough, or from future satellite measurements.     

A Street Fit for a King: Naming Places and Commemoration in the American South

The naming of streets after Martin Luther King, Jr. (MLK) is an importantarena for African Americans as they rewrite the landscape of southern identity and commemoration. While less ornate and ostentatious than museums and monuments, MLK streets are powerful and highly contested cultural geographies because of their potential to connect disparate communities and incorporate a vision of the past into the spatial practices of everyday life. They reveal the importance of location, particularly intra-urban location, to public memorialization. Naming streets for King is a significant part of the nonmetropolitan South as well as larger cities and dependent upon the relative size of a city's African-American population. When estimating the intra-urban character of MLK streets within several southern states, findings suggest that they are located in census areas that are generally poorer and with more African Americans than citywide averages. Analysis reveals a geographic unevenness in the frequency of businesses having an address identified with King. When compared with the stereotypical American thoroughfare of “Main” Street, the address composition of MLK streets appears to be more residential in nature, although there is significant state by state variation.     

基于生态足迹分析的山区农产品结构优化探讨--以大别山区岳西县为例

生态足迹分析是一种定量评估区域可持续发展状态的有效方法。文章以生态足迹理论为基础,建立以经济生态综合效益最大化为原则的农产品生产种植结构优化模型,提出通过计算比较主要农产品的产值足迹的方法来优化山区农业结构;以大别山区岳西县2002年统计数据为依据,对岳西县的主要农产品进行计算分析。结果表明,茶叶、水果、禽肉与蔬菜的产值足迹是最低的,其经济生态效益最高,而水产品、油料、羊肉与玉米的产值足迹是最高的,其经济生态效益最低。文章对山区农产品结构优化的探讨可以为山区农业实现可持续发展提供切实可行的指导,同时也为山区树立科学发展观提供借鉴。     

Hubbert’s Legacy: A Review of Curve-Fitting Methods to Estimate Ultimately Recoverable Resources

A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates of the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions, obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered by M. King Hubbert in the context of an earlier debate about the future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread use, curve-fitting techniques remain the subject of considerable controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques and identifies both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results. This article discusses the interpretation and importance of the URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques into three groups. It then investigates each group in turn, indicating their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths and weaknesses. The article then uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques produce consistent results as well as highlight some of the statistical issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article concludes that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds on the results are wider than usually assumed.     

The Girls' Home, Bangkok, Thailand: Developing Thoughts on Democracy

This paper describes an exercise with children in the implementation of housing rights. Based on the argued opinion that housing rights cannot be exercised without participation and that participation without knowledge is pretence, a Kids and Architecture programme was initiated with a group of 40 children — displaced from homes in the Klong Toey slum in Bangkok — at a girls' home run by the Human Development Foundation (HDF). The programme, developed in two phases and involving students from the King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), School of Architecture, set about to teach these children some of the elements of architecture so that they could participate in the design of their own housing. From this experiment a number of conclusions are drawn about the implementation of housing rights and about the teaching of architecture, both to children and architecture students.     

A Street Fit for a King: Naming Places and Commemoration in the American South

The naming of streets after Martin Luther King, Jr. (MLK) is an importantarena for African Americans as they rewrite the landscape of southern identity and commemoration. While less ornate and ostentatious than museums and monuments, MLK streets are powerful and highly contested cultural geographies because of their potential to connect disparate communities and incorporate a vision of the past into the spatial practices of everyday life. They reveal the importance of location, particularly intra‐urban location, to public memorialization. Naming streets for King is a significant part of the nonmetropolitan South as well as larger cities and dependent upon the relative size of a city's African‐American population. When estimating the intra‐urban character of MLK streets within several southern states, findings suggest that they are located in census areas that are generally poorer and with more African Americans than citywide averages. Analysis reveals a geographic unevenness in the frequency of businesses having an address identified with King. When compared with the stereotypical American thoroughfare of “Main” Street, the address composition of MLK streets appears to be more residential in nature, although there is significant state by state variation.     

Statistical study of the occurrence of shallow earthquakes

Summary. The time—space-magnitude interaction of shallow earthquakes has been investigated for three catalogues: worldwide ( M ≥ 7.0), Southern and Northern California ( M ≥ 4.0) and Central California ( M ≥ 1.5). The earthquake sequences are considered as a multi-dimensional stochastic point process; the estimates of the parameters for a branching model of the seismic process are obtained by a maximum-likelihood procedure. After applying magnitude—time and magnitude—distance scaling, the pattern of relationship among earthquakes of different magnitude ranges is almost identical. The number of foreshocks diminishes as the magnitude difference between the main shock and the foreshocks increases, while the magnitude distribution of aftershocks has the opposite property. The strongest aftershocks are likely to occur at the beginning of the sequence; later they migrate away with velocities of the order of km/day. The sequences which are composed of smaller aftershocks last longer and there are indications that they remain essentially in the focal region. Foreshocks also appear to migrate, but in this case, toward the main shock. The rate of occurrence of dependent shocks increases as t ^-1 as the origin time of the main shock is approached, effectively making every earthquake a multi-shock event. This interaction of earthquakes was modelled by a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The statistical inversion of simulated catalogues was undertaken to derive the information we would be able to retrieve from actual data, as well as possible errors of estimates. The possibility of using these results as a tool for seismic risk prediction is discussed and evaluated.     

Was there ice along the shore of the Sea of Galilee during the last 12,000?—Reply to a comment by Prange et al. (2007) and a comment by Friedman (2007)

Prange et al. (2007) question our reconstruction of the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) paleoclimate and argue that a “careful” analysis of the paleoclimatic analysis leads to much smaller cooling events than we have considered. By and large, their “careful” analysis is based on correlating the paleotemperatures of the Lake with those of the northern Red-Sea that (geographically) is much closer to the Lake than the two Mediterranean cores that we used. Ironically, their argument contradicts Friedman’s (2007) statements (the second comment on our original paper), which are based on still-closer cores and support our larger cooling choices. This issue alone would be enough to dismiss the uniqueness of PAL argument but there is another issue with their work that we wish to comment on. In support of their own small cooling argument, PAL present winter correlation maps that indeed show a stronger correlation of the northern Red-Sea SST to the lake SST than the correlation of Mediterranean SST with the lake SST. This seemingly correct correlation argument of PAL is totally false (for both daily and millennial time scales) because it has no climatological basis. On the daily time scale, all the storms that reach the Lake originate in the Mediterranean Sea (to the west of the lake), not the Red-Sea (which lies 700 km south of the lake). Also, although the lake and the Red-Sea are only 700 kilometers apart, their climates are very different because they are subject to two totally different air masses. While the climate of the Red-Sea region is desert-like, the climate of the region surrounding the lake is a typical wet Mediterranean climate. Seasonal correlation maps (and even monthly maps) such as those presented by the authors filter out the storms that control the winter climate in the lake region because these storms occur on a daily scale. With this filtering, all that one is left with is the low frequency first baroclinic mode, which merely reflects the Rossby radius scale (measured from the lake). On the millennial time scale, cold events in the lake regions (from an earlier period) have been attributed to Bond cycles and Heinrich events both of which are global and not local processes. As such, they are probably forced by variability in the solar radiation rather than a local process implied by PAL. Overall, all that the PAL correlation shows for both daily and millennial time scales is that changes in the temperature in the Red-Sea occur at the same time as they do in the Lake. But this does not say anything about the dynamics in question and does not imply that it is better to use records from the Red-Sea (which does not lie within the path of the zonal winds reaching the Lake). Neglecting this issue (as proposed by PAL) distorts the physics and reminds us of the classical statistical example for the limitations involved in the interpretation of correlation—the incidence of lung cancer is strongly correlated with the incidence of carrying matches in ones pocket even though the matches do not cause the cancer and the cancer does not force one to carry matches.     

Mapping stand volumes of Pinus halepensis Mill in a semi-arid region using satellite imagery of the Sénalba Chergui forest in north-central Algeria

We developed an approach using remote sensing and modeling, applicable to Algerian forest inventory, for estimating the volume of timber in Aleppo pine stands. We used ordinary linear regression (OLR) and reduced major axis (RMA) regression to assess an operational model to map stand volume from satellite images. Our analysis was supported by measurements from 151 sample plots and spectral values from remote sensing imagery. Fifteen candidate models were tested through the Akaike Information Criterion to assess their predictive power. For the 2009 Landsat TM image, we found that the best models for both regression methods used the NDVI as the independent variable. The RMSEs were 20.3% (16.10 m³ ha⁻¹) and 22.5% (17.83 m³ ha⁻¹), respectively, for OLR and RMA. We chose the RMA regression models because they had realistic standard deviation values for the estimated volumes, and they gave lower RMSEs in volume classes over 40 m³ ha⁻¹. Our method gave similar results for two other images, which demonstrated that our approach was robust when applied to data from a different year (2006 Landsat TM), but from the same sensor, and also to data from a different sensor (2005 Alsat-1).     

黄河流域河流水化学特征初步分析

本文根据黄河流域69个水化学测站500个站年资料分析了水化学特征及其区域分异。     

历史环境变化数据库的建设与应用

阐述了历史环境变化数据库的资料来源及其计算机化的规范 ;介绍了以计算机、数据库等为技术手段的历史环境变化数据库的建设方案及数据库的主要功能 ;展望了历史环境变化数据库的应用前景     

Collins Glacier Retreat Process and Regional Climatic Variations,King George Island,Antarctica

This paper investigates the recent climatic variability and changes in snow line and ice front position in Collins Glacier, King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctic Peninsula. This region has recorded one of the largest temperature increases in the past fifty years and has been demonstrated to be highly sensitive to climate changes. To monitor recent changes (1983–2006), we determined the fluctuations of the terminus and snow line of the glacier via remote sensing data and field observation in the summer of 2013. We conclude that the Collins Glacier has responded slowly to regional climate changes (decades or even centuries), as glacial responses to climatic events do not depend solely on one environmental variable. The glacier presented more retreat and elevation of the snow line in the north sector. The retreat data are correlated with the mean monthly temperature and annual number of days of melting‐degree variations.