Migration of large earthquakes along the great fault zones in Middle Asia

An analysis of the distribution (both spatial and temporal) of large earthquakes (M 6.5) along the Gissar—Kokshaal and the Hindu-Kush—Darvaz—Karakul fault zones in Middle Asia has revealed the linear character of migration from the ends to the centre of the Pamir arcs at a rate of 1–2 km/year to 3–6 km/year. Migration of large earthquakes at a similar rate has also been found in some of the other great fault zones. An attempt has been made to evaluate the duration of a migration cycle.The regularity found, although it needs further confirmation, has been used to tentatively predict the possible sites of future large earthquakes likely to occur in the present century.     

The large-scale distribution of great shallow intraplate earthquakes in mainland China and adjacent areas and seismic coupling along plate margins

In mainland China and its surroundings the large-scale distribution of great, shallow, intraplate earthquakes shows that there are four main areas of high intraplate seismicity which are (a) the Northern China Seismic Area in east China (30°–42°N); (b) the Southeast-coast Seismic Area in eastern China (19°–25°N); (c) the North-south trending Seismic Area in western China and its surroundings (Burma–China–Mongolia); (d) the Central Asian Seismic Area in west China and its surroundings (Pamirs–Tianshan Mts–Baikal). These four intraplate seismic areas are approximately perpendicular to those sections of the Eurasian plate boundary where the Eurasian plate has a strong seismic coupling with the North American–Pacific Ocean–Philippine Sea plates, and with the Indian plate. The large-scale uneven distribution of intraplate seismicity in China and its surroundings may be controlled by heterogeneity in the stress state on different sections of the plate boundary.     

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, Japan

We found a characteristic space–time pattern of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, central Japan, where a large interplate earthquake may be impending. We measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence using microearthquakes that took place in the Philippine Sea plate for about two decades. For each event, we assigned the tidal phase angle at the origin time by theoretically calculating the tidal shear stress on the fault plane. Based on the distribution of the tidal phase angles, we statistically tested whether they concentrate near some particular angle or not by using Schuster's test. In this test, the result is evaluated by p-value, which represents the significance level to reject the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of the tidal phase angle. As a result of analysis, no correlation was found for the data set including all the earthquakes. However, we found a systematic pattern in the temporal variation of the tidal effect; the p-value significantly decreased preceding the occurrence of M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes, and it recovered a high level afterwards. We note that those M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes were considerably larger than the normal background seismicity in the study area. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak at the phase angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This indicates that the observed small p-value is a physical consequence of the tidal effect. We also found a distinctive feature in the spatial distribution of p-values. The small p-values appeared just beneath the strongly coupled portion of the plate interface, as inferred from the seismicity rate change in the past few years.     

Dynamic interaction of seismic activity along rising and sinking edges of plate boundaries

Cumulative and differential cumulative seismic strain release of shallow earthquakes during 1964 through 1972 show significant time-delayed correlation for many of the rises and/or sinks of tectonic plate boundaries for the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans. For the Pacific, time delays are almost exclusively from areas of higher to areas of lower strain release, and could imply viscous stress relaxation along or near the lithosphere—asthenosphere boundary. Seismically determined slip rates for many of the subduction zones during 1964–1972 are lower than those of the preceding part of the century by a factor of 5. The significant correlation between many rises and sinks suggests worldwide interaction and coupling of plate motion.     

Occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in the seismic zones along the Hellenic Arc

Occurrence patterns of large shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes in the seismic zones along the Hellenic Arc have been investigated. It is shown that throughout this active region the earthquakes tend to occur in a rather systematic manner. At each time-period earthquakes occur within a discrete activated segment of the arc. These occurrence patterns are considered to offer an insight into identifying where large earthquakes are expected to occur in the future.     

Ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in subduction zones

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones

Statistics of the recurrence times of great earthquakes at the Pacific subduction margins are made. The mean return period of great earthquakes is different from zone to zone, ranging from 27 to 117 years. The standard deviation of the return period proves to be very small, several years say, in some cases. The probabilities of a great earthquake recurring in each zone are estimated on the basis of Weibull distribution analysis.The mean return periods thus estimated are combined with the relative plate velocities at respective zones as obtained in the plate tectonics in order to estimate the ultimate displacement to rupture at the interface of the continental plate and the downgoing oceanic plate. It is presumed that great earthquakes at subduction zones occur as a result of a rebound of the continental plate at the time of rupture. The ultimate displacement thus estimated ranges from 2 to 8 m, and seems somewhat larger than that estimated on the basis of seismic observations, although the value of ultimate displacement seems to harmonize roughly with estimates based on geodetic observations on land. However, the ultimate displacement at the Aleutian—Alaska zone as estimated here seems much smaller than that estimated from actual observations.The ultimate strains, which are deduced from the displacements obtained on the assumption that the logarithmic extent of the deformed area is proportional to earthquake magnitude, are then calculated, and compared with those estimated for large inland earthquakes as revealed by repetition of geodetic surveys. The mean ultimate strain is estimated as 4.3 · 10⁻⁵ for subduction-zone earthquakes while that for inland earthquakes has been estimated as 4.7 · 10⁻⁵. As the agreement between both the ultimate strains is fairly good, it is tentatively concluded that the strength of the plate interface under the sea bottom is more or less the same as that in the crust on land.     

Great earthquakes,seismicity gaps and potential for earthquake disaster along the Himalaya plate boundary

Analysis of the space-time patterns of seismicity in the Himalaya plate boundary has established the existence of three seismic gaps:

• 1.(1) The “Kashmir gap” lying west of the 1905 Kangra earthquake;
• 2.(2) the “Central gap”, situated between the 1905 Kangra and the 1934 Bihar earthquakes;
• 3.(3) the “Assam gap” between the 1897 and 1950 Assam earthquakes.

This study has shown that the above great earthquakes were preceded as well as followed by long periods (⩾ 19 years) of decreased levels of seismic activity in the epicentral regions. Remarkable decrease in the seismicity following the year 1970 has been observed in the western half of the Central gap as well as in the Assam gap. Local seismic investigation in the Assam gap confirms this feature and the seismicity suggests the existence there of an asperity.The local seismic investigations in Garhwal Himalaya have shown that the small earthquakes are confined to the upper 6–8 km of the crust and may have strike-slip motions. These earthquakes occur in a region where teleseismically recorded events were few.     

The occurrence of large earthquakes in south Italy

An analysis of the data in the catalogues of Italian earthquakes indicates that large earthquakes which occur in the area of radius of about 140 km centered in the Straits of Messina occur in sequences. Each sequence is generally formed by two events and covers an average time window of 10 years.The last four sequences occurred in the time windows 1783–1891, 1818–1823, 1865–1870, 1905–1908 and are separated by about 40 years indicating that in that area there is now a gap in the time domain.The analysis of the data in the Catalogue for the region between the latitudes 39°N and 41°50′N indicates that in that region the large earthquakes occurred in 13 sequences. Each sequence is formed by 3 events in average and covers an average time window of 7 years. This indicates that, after the earthquake of Nov. 1980, which occurred after a gap of 67 years, other moderately large earthquakes may be expected in that area in the next few years.     

Characteristics of ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in the Sumatra region

Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M _w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.     

Space—time correlations between inland earthquakes in central Japan and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough: Implication for destructive earthquake prediction

Based on the tectonic framework of central Japan, including the surrounding submarine areas, the space-time relationship between destructive inland earthquakes of magnitudesM 6.4 or greater and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough was examined. From east to west, four tectonic lines are defined as lines linking active faults: the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line (ISTL), the Tsurugawan-Isewan tectonic line (TITL), the Hanaore-Kongo fault line (HKFL), and the Arima-Takatsuki tectonic line (ATTL). The TITL divides central Japan into the Chubu and Kinki districts, and probably extends southward to the Nankai trough. The Chubu district is subdivided into four blocks by boundary lines linking NW-SE trending active faults having left-lateral strike slip. In the Kinki district, N-S trending, active reverse, steep-dip faults are dominant in the triangular region north of the Median Tectonic line, between the TITL and HKFL, forming a basin-and-range province.

Starting from 1586 A.D., a seismic space-time sequence of high seismic activity in the Chubu district in which earthquake occurrence migrates from the eastern to western tectonic lines of central Japan was identified. The sequence also revealed that inland earthquakes preceded great offshore earthquakes which occurred along the Nankai trough. It was also found that a destructive earthquake tends to occur on the HKFL within 30 years after the occurrence on the TITL, and that the western Nankai trough generated great earthquakes ofM≥7.0 at intervals ranging from 8 to 49 years after the HKFL earthquakes. If the eastern Nankai trough is coupled with the western Nankai trough, a forthcoming greater earthquake measuringM 8.5 may be expected. Since such great earthquakes are always accompanied by large tsunamis, much attention should be focussed on possible tsunami disasters along the Pacific coast of central Japan.

Based on its tectonic structure, a tectonic model of central Japan is proposed. The seismic space-time sequence, which attempts to explain the cause of the sequential earthquake generation, is also discussed.     

Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya

Long-term conditional probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary seismic zone have been estimated. The chance of occurrence of at least one great earthquake along this seismic zone over a period of 100 years (beginning the year 1999) is estimated to be about 0.89. The 100-year probability of such an earthquake occurring in the Kashmir seismic gap is about 0.27, in the central seismic gap about 0.52 and in the Assam gap about 0.21. The 25-year probabilities of their occurrence in these gaps are 0.07, 0.17, and 0.05 respectively. These probability estimates may be used profitably to assess the seismic hazard in the Himalaya and the adjoining Ganga plains.     

Magnitudes of great shallow earthquakes from 1953 to 1977

The surface-wavemagnitudes M_s are determined for 30 great shallow earthquakes that occurred during the period from 1953 to 1977. The determination is based on the amplitude and period data from all available station bulletins, and the same procedure as that employed in Gutenberg and Richter's “Seismicity of the Earth” is used. During this period, the Chilean earthquake of 1960 has the largest M_s, 8.5. The surface-wave magnitudes listed in “Earthquake Data Reports” are found to be higher than M_s on the average. By using the same method as that used by Gutenberg, the broad-band body-wave magnitudes m_B are determined for great shallow shocks for the period from 1953 to 1974. m_B is based on the amplitudes of P, PP and S waves which are measured on broadband instruments at periods of about 4–20 s. The 1-s body-wave magnitudes listed in “Bulletin of International Seismological Center” and “Earthquake Data Reports” are found to be much smaller than m_B on the average. Through the examination of Gutenberg and Richter's original worksheets, the relation between m_B and M_sis revised to m_B = 0.65 M_s+ 2.5 which well satisfies the mg and M_sdata for M_sbetween 5.2 and     

Configuration of subducting Philippine Sea plate and crustal structure in the central Japan region

A seismic experiment with six explosive sources and 391 seismic stations was conducted in August 2001 in the central Japan region. The crustal velocity structure for the central part of Japan and configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate were revealed. A large lateral variation of the thickness of the sedimentary layer was observed, and the P-wave velocity values below the sedimentary layer obtained were 5.3–5.8 km/s. P-wave velocity values for the lower part of upper crust and lower crust were estimated to be 6.0–6.4 and 6.6–6.8 km/s, respectively. The reflected wave from the upper boundary of the subducting Philippine Sea plate was observed on the record sections of several shots. The configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea slab was revealed for depths of 20–35 km. The dip angle of the Philippine Sea plate was estimated to be 26° for a depth range of about 20–26 km. Below this depth, the upper boundary of the subducting Philippine Sea plate is distorted over a depth range of 26–33 km. A large variation of the reflected-wave amplitude with depth along the subducting plate was observed. At a depth of about 20–26 km, the amplitude of the reflected wave is not large, and is explained by the reflected wave at the upper boundary of the subducting oceanic crust. However, the reflected wave from reflection points deeper than 26 km showed a large amplitude that cannot be explained by several reliable velocity models. Some unique seismic structures have to be considered to explain the observed data. Such unique structures will provide important information to know the mechanism of inter-plate earthquakes.     

Flexure of the Indian plate and intraplate earthquakes

The flexural bulge in central India resulting from India's collision with Tibet has a wavelength of approximately 670 km. It is manifest topographically and in the free-air gravity anomaly and the geoid. Calculations of the stress distribution within a flexed Indian plate reveal spatial variations throughout the depth of the plate and also a function of distance from the Himalaya. The wavelength (and therefore local gradient) of stress variation is a function of the effective elastic thickness of the plate, estimates of which have been proposed to lie in the range 40–120 km. The imposition of this stress field on the northward moving Indian plate appears fundamental to explaining the current distribution of intraplate earthquakes and their mechanisms. The current study highlights an outer trough south of the flexural bulge in central India where surface stresses are double the contiguous compressional stresses to the north and south. The Bhuj, Latur and Koyna earthquakes and numerous other recent reverse faulting events occurred in this compressional setting. The N/S spatial gradient of stress exceeds 2 bars/km near the flexural bulge. The overall flexural stress distribution provides a physical basis for earthquake hazard mapping and suggests that areas of central India where no historic earthquakes are recorded may yet be the locus of future damaging events.