The idea and project of the “Medium-Scale Experiment Field for Earthquake Prediction”

A brief account of the development of the research on mining earthquakes and the general situation of the Mentougou Coal Mine medium-scale experiment field for earthquake prediction and the project of monitor and prediction is given. The differences of waveforms between mining earthquakes and natural earthquakes is discussed. The magnitude-frequency distribution of the 79 000 mining earthquakes of overM _l 1. 0 from 1984 to 1995 is summarized. Finally, taking PH and PV, the principal compressive stress components of the focal mechanism of the mining earthquakes, as the criteria, analyses the stress background of the 12 large mining earthquakes.     

Characteristics of ambient stress values for micro－earthquake sequences in Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Experimental Field

Ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆａｍｂｉｅｎｔｓｔｒｅｓｓｖａｌｕｅｓｆｏｒｍｉｃｒｏ－ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｉｎＷｅｓｔｅｒｎＹｕｎｎａｎ　Ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅ　Ｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ　Ｅｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔａｌ　ＦｉｅｌｄＪｉａ－Ｚ...     

Research on the seismogenic environment for deep earthquake and the cause of earthquakes in Xinjiang and its adjacent areas

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔｆｏｒｄｅｅｐｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅａｎｄｔｈｅｃａｕｓｅｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｉｎＸｉｎｊｉａｎｇａｎｄｉｔｓａｄｊａｃｅｎｔａｒｅａｓＱｉａｎｇＬＩ（李强）；Ｒｕｉ－Ｆｅｎｇ...     

Research on completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland（Ⅱ）──The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data

（黄玮琼）（李文香）（曹学锋）ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｃｏｍｐｌｅｔｅｎｅｓｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｄａｔａｉｎｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄ（Ⅱ）──Ｔｈｅｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｂｅｇｉｎｎｉｎｇｙｅａｒｓｏｆｂａｓ...     

Research on Algorithm M8 Applying to TIP Prediction of China's Strong Earthquake Cases in the Past Decades

This paper offers a positive research result of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes in North and Southwest China and their nearby areas since 1979 by using improved algorithm M8.The result showed that 14 of them were determined to occur within the times of increased probability.TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain.That means we have made quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.     

Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland（I）──North China

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｔｈｅｃｏｍｐｌｅｔｅｎｅｓｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｄａｔａｉｎｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄ（Ｉ）──ＮｏｒｔｈＣｈｉｎａＷｅｉ－ＱｉｏｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄玮琼）；Ｗｅｎ－ＸｉａｎｇＬＩ；（李文香）ａｎｄＸｕｅ－ＦｅｎｇＣ...     

The Spatial and Temporal Variatiion of Modern Tectonic Stress Field in North CHina before and after the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake

By using 126 earthquake focal mechanism solutions (M S≥4.7) during the period of 1963～1998, modern tectonic stress field in North China is inverted by means of the step by step convergence. The inversion results indicate that the tectonic stress field in the research region is clearly variational in space and time: (1) The middling principal stress axis σ 2 is basically vertical. The maximum and minimum principal stress axes σ 1 and σ 2 are nearly horizontal, but the azimuths of σ 1 and σ 3 are inconsistent in different districts and periods. (2) Before the Tangshan earthquake in 1976, the three principal stress axes are uniform. The azimuth of maximum principal stress axis σ 1 is 68° (striking in a NEE-SWW direction). (3) After the Tangshan earthquake, the maximum principal stress axis σ 1 and minimum principal stress axis σ 3 have variations in different districts. In the northern area of North China and on the eastern side of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone, the maximum principal stress axis σ 1 is also striking in a NEE-SWW direction. Its azimuth is 68°. It is the same as that before the Tangshan earthquake. In the southern area of North China, the maximum principal stress axis σ 1 is striking in a E-W direction and its azimuth is 87°.     

Monitoring the Processes of Interseismic Accumulation and Coseismic Release of Stresses in the Medium Nearby Earthquake Sources Based on the Analysis of Tidal Response of the Earth’s Surface

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) incorporating more than 150 seismic stations all over the world allows recording not only...     

The 11-year solar-cycle effects on the temperature in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere: Part I—Assessment of observations

Three independent temperature datasets have been analyzed for quantifying the influence of the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the UV radiation. The datasets used include: US rocketsondes, the OHP lidar, and the global temperature database made by the successive SSU on the NOAA satellites, adjusted and provided by the UK Meteorological Office. These measurements cover the upper stratosphere and the mesosphere, where the direct photochemical effect is expected. The improvement of the analysis compared to previous ones was possible because the overall quality and the continuity of many data series have been checked more carefully during the last decade in order to look for anthropogenic fingerprints and the one used here have been recognized as the best series according to their temporal continuity. The analysis of the different data set is based on the same regression linear model. The 11-year solar temperature response observed presents a variable behavior, depending on the location. However, an overall adequate agreement among the results has been obtained, and thus the global picture of the solar impact in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere has been obtained and is presented here. In the tropics, a 1–2 K positive response in the mid and upper stratophere has been found, in agreement with photochemical theory and previous analyses. On the opposite, at mid-latitudes, negative responses of several Kelvin have been observed, during winters, in the analyses of the datasets analyzed here. In the mesosphere, at sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions, we observe a positive response all the year round increasing by a factor of two during winter.     

The K Method for Estimating Earthquake Activity Parameters and Effect of the Boundary Uncertainty of the Source Region:Discussion on the Seismic Zoning Method

Two aspects of a new method,which can be used for seismic zoning,are introduced in this paper.On the one hand,the approach to estimate b value and annual activity rate proposed by Kijko and Sellevoll needs to use the earthquake catalogue.The existing earthquake catalogue contains both historical and recent instrumental data sets and it is inadequate to use only one part.Combining the large number of historical events with recent complete records and taking the magnitude uncertainty into account,Kijko's method gives the maximum likelihood estimation of b value and annual activity rate,which might be more realistic.On the other hand,this method considers the source zone boundary uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis,which means the earthquake activity rate across a boundary of a source zone changes smoothly instead of abruptly and avoids too large a gradient in the calculated results.     

Inversion for negative dislocation on elastic block boundaries in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block and prediction for strong earthquake location

Introduction According to the negative dislocation model (Matsu′ura et al, 1986), the relative motion be-tween active blocks under contemporary crustal movement is likely to be partially blocked on the boundaries. Suppose the lower ductile zone of boundary could slip freely, while due to the fric-tional resistance, etc., the upper brittle zone would restrict such kind of relative motion, so as to give rise to stress and strain accumulation. Namely, the surface displacement in the block bound-…     

Research Project "Analysis on Changes in Runoff and Sediment Load in The Yellow River" completed for The Ministry of Water Rsources PRC

This large-scale research project was sponsored by the Foundation of Changes inRunoff and Sediment Load in The Yellow River, Ministry of Water Resources PRC. Since1970's evident reduction in runoff and sediment load in the Yellow River took place. Considering such changes might bring about profound consequences to the development of thewhole Yellow River, a special foundation to study the future trend of changes in runoff andsediment load was set up by the Ministry of Water Resources f…     

Rating of seismicity and reconstruction of the fault geometries in northern Tien Shan within the project “Seismic Hazard Assessment for Almaty”

The project “Seismic Hazard Assessment for Almaty” has a main objective to improve existing seismic hazard maps for the region of northern Tien Shan and especially for the surroundings of Almaty and to generate a new geodynamic model of the region.In the first step a composite seismic catalogue for the northern Tien Shan region was created, which contains about 20,000 events and is representative for strong earthquakes for the period back to the year 500. For the period of instrumental observation 1911–2006 the catalogue contains data for earthquakes with a body wave magnitude larger than 4. For smaller events with magnitudes up to 2.2 the data are only available since 1980. The composite catalogue was created on the basis of several catalogues from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), local catalogues from the Kazakh National Data Centre (KNDC) and the USSR earthquake catalogue. Due to the different magnitudes used in several catalogues a magnitude conversion was necessary.Event density maps were created to rate the seismicity in the region and to identify seismic sources. Subsurface fault geometries were constructed using tectonic model which uses fault parallel material flow and is constrained by GPS data. The fault geometry should improve the estimation of the expected seismic sources from seismic density maps.First analysis of the earthquake catalogue and the density maps has shown that nearly all large events are related to fault systems. Annual seismicity distribution maps suggest different processes as the cause for the seismic events. Apart from tectonics, also fluids play a major part in triggering of the earthquakes.Beneath the Issyk-Kul basin the absence of strong seismic activity suggests aseismic sliding at the flat ramp in a ductile crust part and low deformation within the stable Issyk-Kul micro-continent which underthrust the northern ranges of Tien Shan. First results suggest a new partition of the region in tectonic units, whose bounding faults are responsible for most of the seismic activity.     

A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2011 to August 2016. The likely location,time, and evolution of the next great earthquake with M ≥ 7.7 in Kamchatka

We consider the results from the ongoing 2010–2011 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the pattern of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We develop a forecast for the next 5 years, from September 2011 to August 2016, for all segments of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc earthquake-generating zone. For 20 segments we predict the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probability 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, and the maximum possible magnitudes and probability of occurrence for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. This study serves as another confirmation that it is entirely necessary to continue the work in seismic retrofitting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii.     

Study on Active Faults and Seismogenic Structure for the 1989 Batang M6.2 ～ 6.7 Earthquake Swarm in the Litang-Batang Region of West Sichuan, China

INTRODUCTIONGeological investigations since the1970s have shown that the sub_longitudinal Jinshajiang andHonghe(Red River)fault zones constitutethe western boundary of“Rhombic Sichuan_Yunnan Block”onthe Sichuan_Tibet border and display mainly dextral sh…     

The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period,its modification and application; the Kuril–Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.     

Earthquake migration in East Asia mainland （Ⅰ）──The migration of huge earthquakes and volcanic activity from West Pacific Trench to the Chinese mainland

ＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｍｉｇｒａｔｉｏｎｉｎＥａｓｔＡｓｉａｍａｉｎｌａｎｄ（Ⅰ）──ＴｈｅｍｉｇｒａｔｉｏｎｏｆｈｕｇｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓａｎｄｖｏｌｃａｎｉｃａｃｔｉｖｉｔｙｆｒｏｍＷｅｓｔＰａｃｉｆｉｃＴｒｅｎｃｈｔｏｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅ　ｍ...