A study to discriminate local,urban and regional source contributions to the particulate matter concentrations in the city of Dresden,Germany

The fractions of local traffic (LT), urban background (UBG) and regional background (RBG) of the particle pollution at a traffic-influenced kerbside in Dresden, Germany, were determined by measurements of size-segregated mass concentration, chemical composition and particle size distributions in a network of five measurement stations partly existing and partly set up for this study. Besides the kerbside station, one urban background site and three rural sites were included in the study. Using data from these different sites, the LT, UBG, and RBG contributions were calculated, following the approach of Lenschow et al. (2001). At the kerbside site, 19% of the total number concentration (Dp_St = 10–600 nm) could be attributed to the RBG, 15% to the UBG, and 66% to the LT immediately nearby. Particle mass concentrations up to Dp_aer = 420 nm RBG amounts to 68%, UBG to 21%, and LT only to 11%. Highest mass concentrations were observed at all stations in autumn and winter during easterly inflow directions. The local traffic fraction of PM₁₀ mass at the kerbside station was found to be 30% for westerly inflow, but only 7% for southeasterly inflow due to the dominating transport fraction from up to 80% of the particle mass at this inflow direction. Size-resolved investigation showed the main fractions in both the particle size ranges of Dp_aer = 0.42 to 1.2 and 0.14 to 0.42 μm at all stations. The main components sulphate, ammonium and total carbon showed higher concentrations at south-eastern/eastern inflow in autumn at all stations, while nitrate at the kerbside and urban background site was higher during westerly inflow in winter. The chemical composition at the regional background site at westerly inflow (12% nitrate, 8% sulphate, 11% total carbon) was significantly different from that at easterly inflow (3% nitrate, 15% sulphate, 22% total carbon). The prevailing part of the ionic mass was always found in the fine particle range of Dp_aer = 0.14 to 1.2 μm at all stations. For all inflow directions highest total carbon concentrations were observed at the kerbside station, especially in the ultra-fine size range of Dp_aer = 0.05 to 0.14 μm with up to 30% of the whole carbon. PAH concentrations were always higher at south-eastern/eastern inflow especially during wintertime. Trace metal components and silicon were found mainly in the coarse mode fraction at the kerbside resulting from abrasion or resuspension.     

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques

Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the 825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and 2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest. The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding.     

Evaluating regional climate model estimates against site-specific observed data in the UK

This paper compares precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature and solar radiation estimates from the Hadley Centre’s HadRM3 regional climate model (RCM), (50 × 50 km grid cells), with observed data from 15 meteorological station in the UK, for the period 1960–90. The aim was to investigate how well the HadRM3 is able to represent weather characteristics for a historical period (hindcast) for which validation data exist. The rationale was to determine if the HadRM3 data contain systematic errors and to investigate how suitable the data are for use in climate change impact studies at particular locations. Comparing modelled and observed data helps assess and quantify the uncertainty introduced to climate impact studies. The results show that the model performs very well for some locations and weather variable combinations, but poorly for others. Maximum temperature estimations are generally good, but minimum temperature is overestimated and extreme cold events are not represented well. For precipitation, the model produces too many small events leading to a serious under estimation of the number of dry days (zero precipitation), whilst also over- or underestimating the mean annual total. Estimates represent well the temporal distribution of precipitation events. The model systematically over-estimates solar radiation, but does produce good quality estimates at some locations. It is concluded that the HadRM3 data are unsuitable for detailed (i.e. daily time step simulation model based) site-specific impacts studies in their current form. However, the close similarity between modelled and observed data for the historical case raises the potential for using simple adjustment methods and applying these to future projection data.     

Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal precipitation over Europe

We analyze a set of nine regional climate model simulations for the period 1961–2000 performed at 25 and 50 km horizontal grid spacing over a European domain in order to determine the effects of horizontal resolution on the simulation of precipitation. All of the models represent the seasonal mean spatial patterns and amount of precipitation fairly well. Most models exhibit a tendency to over-predict precipitation, resulting in a domain-average total bias for the ensemble mean of about 20% in winter (DJF) and less than 10% in summer (JJA) at both resolutions, although this bias could be artificially enhanced by the lack of a gauge correction in the observations. A majority of the models show increased precipitation at 25 km relative to 50 km over the oceans and inland seas in DJF, JJA, and ANN (annual average), although the response is strongest during JJA. The ratio of convective precipitation to total precipitation decreases over land for most models at 25 km. In addition, there is an increase in interannual variability in many of the models at 25 km grid spacing. Comparison with gridded observations indicates that a majority of models show improved skill in simulating both the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of precipitation at 25 km compared to 50 km during the summer months, but not in winter or on an annual mean basis. Model skill at higher resolution in simulating the spatial and temporal character of seasonal precipitation is found especially for Great Britain. This geographic dependence of the increased skill suggests that observed data of sufficient density are necessary to capture fine-scale climate signals. As climate models increase their horizontal resolution, it is thus a key priority to produce high quality fine scale observations for model evaluation.     

Vertical Variation of Madden-Jullian Oscillations in the Normal Monsoon Season as Revealed Through MST Radar Wind Data

Summary  Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) Radar wind data for the period June through September 1996 have been examined to study vertical variation of Madden-Jullian Oscillations in wind and eddy kinetic energy (eke) in the normal monsoon season. The domain of analysis in the vertical is from 6 to 20 km with a height resolution of 150 m. Fast-Fourier-Transformation (FFT) has been applied to zonal (u), meridional(v) components of wind to extract the Madden-Jullian oscillations and eke. There are three dominant modes viz., 50–70, 30–40 and 10–20 day periodicity, which contain considerable fraction of energy and show high degree of vertical variability. The peak amplitude of 50–70 day mode in u, 30–40 mode in v and eke were observed at 16–17 km just below the tropopause level. The peak amplitudes of 30–40 day mode in u and 50–70 day mode in v were found in the height region of 13–16 km. To understand the origin and propagation of these waves, wave energy is calculated. The wave energy is higher at tropospheric heights than at lower stratospheric heights indicating that the origin of these waves is in the troposphere, and a part of the energy leaks into the stratosphere. Received September 17, 1998/Revised September 26, 1999     

Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM

Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation of the fast waves is done implicitly. After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale. Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001     

Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China’s potential maize production at 50 × 50 km grid scale under climate change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO₂ fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years. Without the CO₂ fertilization effect, China’s maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today’s major maize planting areas. When the CO₂ fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods.     

Intense coastal rainfall in the Netherlands in response to high sea surface temperatures: analysis of the event of August 2006 from the perspective of a changing climate

August 2006 was an exceptionally wet month in the Netherlands, in particular near the coast where rainfall amounts exceeded 300% of the climatological mean. August 2006 was preceded by an extremely warm July with a monthly mean temperature of almost 1°C higher than recorded in any other summer month in the period 1901–2006. This had resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Sea at the end of July. In this paper the contribution of high SSTs to the high rainfall amounts is investigated. In the first part of this study, this is done by analyzing short-term integrations with a regional climate model (RACMO2) operated at 6 km resolution, which are different in the prescribed values of the SSTs. In the second part of the paper the influence of SSTs on rainfall is analyzed statistically on the basis of daily observations in the Netherlands during the period 1958–2006. The results from both the statistical analysis as well as the model integrations show a significant influence of SSTs on precipitation. This influence is particularly strong in the coastal area, that is, less than 30–50 km from the coastline. With favorable atmospheric flow conditions, the analyzed dependency is about +15% increase per degree temperature rise, thereby exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron relation—which is often used as a temperature related constraint on changes in extreme precipitation—by approximately a factor of two. It is shown that the coastal area has consistently become wetter compared to the inland area since the 1950s. This finding is in agreement with the rather strong observed trend in SST over the same period and the dependencies of rainfall on SST reported in this study.     

中国区域高分辨率多源降水观测产品的融合方法试验

高质量、高分辨率降水产品研制对于数值天气模式检验、水文陆面模拟、山洪地质灾害监测有着重要意义。利用中国近4万自动气象站逐时降水资料、中国雷达定量降水估计和CMORPH卫星反演降水产品,开展0.05°×0.05°和0.01°×0.01°两种高分辨率下的三源降水融合方法研究试验,探讨如何有效引入雷达高分辨率信息来提高降水产品质量。一方面,在0.05°分辨率上,先以自动气象站观测降水数据为基准,采用概率密度函数（PDF）匹配法订正雷达和卫星估测降水产品的系统偏差,将雷达降水产品的偏差从-0.05 mm/h降至-0.008 mm/h;再采用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法融合雷达和卫星降水产品,形成0.05°分辨率的中国区域覆盖完整且最优的联合降水背景场。此外,在0.01°分辨率上,以0.05°分辨率的卫星-雷达贝叶斯模型平均联合降水产品为背景,采用1 km雷达估测降水的空间结构信息进行降尺度,亦能有效提高0.01°分辨率背景场的质量。然后,分别以不同分辨率的卫星-雷达联合降水产品为背景,采用统计方法量化误差估计,再采用最优插值方法融入地面观测。通过2419个中国国家级气象台站的独立样本检验,评估了多种类型的降水资料及融合试验产品在中国地区的质量。结果表明,两种分辨率的三源融合试验产品的精度均优于任何单一来源的降水产品,特别是在站点稀疏地区,降水精度均较融合前有显著提高,达到了较好的融合效果,其中在0.05°分辨率上采用“概率密度函数+贝叶斯模型平均+最优插值”方法的三源融合降水产品整体质量最好,而0.01°分辨率上基于“概率密度函数+贝叶斯模型平均+降尺度+最优插值”方法的三源融合降水产品在强降水监测上更有优势。      

On the capability of RegCM to capture extremes in long term regional climate simulation – comparison with the observations for Czech Republic

Summary We analyze daily precipitation and temperature extremes over the Czech Republic in a regional climate simulation for the 40-year period of 1961–2000 carried out with the RegCM3 regional climate model. The model is run at 45 km grid interval and is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis lateral boundary conditions. Comparison with station data shows that the model performs reasonably well in simulating the frequency of daily precipitation events of medium to high intensity as well as the precipitation intensities (return levels) of long return periods, with the exception of mountain stations. While this is attributed mainly to the relatively coarse representation of topography across the area of the Czech Republic, the parameterization of convection can be another reason. The model underestimates daily maximum temperature (especially in the warm seasons) and as a result the occurrence of heat waves (high temperature episodes). The performance of the model improves in the simulation of daily minimum temperature and cold wave events. In order to apply this regional model to the simulation of extreme events over the complex terrain as for Czech Republic we recommend that a higher resolution is used in order to better describe the topography of the Czech Republic and that the daily maximum temperature bias is reduced.     

Some aspects of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal wind field in meteor zone

The diurnal and semidiurnal tidal wind field variations in the altitudes between 80 and 100 km of the earth’s atmosphere over a mid-latitude station are studied by means of the phases of the zonal and meridional wind measurements made at Atlanta (34oN, 84oW). The rotation of diurnal tidal wind vector is seen to be clockwise at lower heights (80-86 km), swinging between clockwise and unti-clockwise at intermediate heights (88-96 km) and anti-clockwise at higher-heights (96- 100 km). The senses of rotation of diurnal and semidiurnal tidal wind vectors are compared between the stations located in the same and opposite hemispheres. The results are consistent with the tidal theory in the case of Atlanta and Adelaide (35oS, 139oE) whereas in the case of other stations considered in the present study, they showed marked variations.     

Regional modeling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel

A regional climate model is used to investigate the mechanism of interdecadal rainfall variability, specifically the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, in the Sahel region of Africa. The model is the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) Regional Spectral Model (RSM97), with a horizontal resolution of approximately equivalent to a grid spacing of 50 km, nested within the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), which in turn was forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Simulations for the July–September season of the individual years 1955 and 1986 produced wet conditions in 1955 and dry conditions in 1986 in the Sahel, as observed. Additional July–September simulations were run forced by SSTs averaged for each month over the periods 1950–1959 and the 1978–1987. These simulations yielded wet conditions in the 1950–1959 case and dry conditions in the 1978–1987 case, confirming the role of SST forcing in decadal variability in particular. To test the hypothesis that the SST influences Sahel rainfall via stabilization of the tropospheric sounding, simulations were performed in which the temperature field from the AGCM was artificially modified before it was used to force the regional model. We modified the original 1955 ECHAM4.5 temperature profiles by adding a horizontally uniform, vertically varying temperature increase, taken from the 1986–1955 tropical mean warming in either the AGCM or the NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. When compared to the 1955 simulations without the added tropospheric warming, these simulations show a drying in the Sahel similar to that in the 1986–1955 difference and to the decadal difference between the 1980s and 1950s. This suggests that the tropospheric warming may have been, at least in part, the agent by which the SST increases led to the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s.     

Analysis of mesometeorological temperature fields

Summary An objective procedure of a three-dimensional temperature analysis in a topography following (zeta) coordinate system is presented. Temperature data from various conventional sources (ground stations, RAWIN, synoptic analysis) are interpolated into the grid points of the zeta system (the horizontal grid distance is 1 km, vertical resolution is 11 levels up to 2500 m) by a topography variability considering horizontal interpolation. As the correlations between the synop and also the upper air data from pairs of stations on different sides of a mountain barrier show a rapid decrease (Lanzinger and Steinacker, 1989), the Euclidic distances between the points with measurements and the grid points are corrected according to the variability of the gird points are corrected according to the variability of the topography between the two points. If the topography between the two points is flat, or if there is only a valley, the Euclidean distance is used as an interpolation distance. In case of a ridge between the two poinst the interpolation distance is increased according to the topography height variation and the stability of the air mass. In the vertical interpolations a synthetic temperature profile is used made of the data from Rawin, the measurements from meteorological tower and the measurements from some meteorological stations located at high altitude.The grid point temperature values are adjusted to satisfy quasi-stationarity condition, considering advective and diabatic changes of the temperature. A variational formalism in a weighted least square sense in the zeta coordinate system is developed and the boundary conditions are specified. The results (3-D temperature fields and the fields of local derivative of temperature) for a large pre-alpine basin (the Ljubljana basin in the central part of Slovenia, Yugoslavia, 50×50 km) are presented and the usefullness of the adjustement procedure is discussed.With 5 Figures     

WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究

基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型（DEM）地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程（其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验）,将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论：当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。     

中国中东部区域TRMM降水产品降尺度研究及其时空特征分析

该研究以中国中东部区域(17°～50°N,98°～135°E)为研究范围,在前人研究基础上,根据水汽与降水之间的关系,基于MOD05水汽产品,采用偏最小二乘法,对中国中东部区域2001—2010年10 a平均TRMM3B43_V 7月降水产品进行降尺度,旨在得到空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的月降水空间分布。通过比较分析,发现该降尺度模型能大幅提高TRMM产品空间分辨率,估算结果平均相对误差为15.35%,与地面观测较接近,能体现中国中东部区域降水宏观分布趋势,且估算结果精度高于前人基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)的降尺度模型,能满足降水产品的精细化需求。     

Seasonal variations of gravity waves revealed in rawinsonde data at Pohang,Korea

Summary Seasonal variations of gravity wave characteristics are investigated using rawinsonde data observed at Pohang observatory, Korea (36°2′N, 129°23′E) during the one-year period of 1998. Analysis is carried out for two atmospheric layers representing the troposphere (2–9 km) and stratosphere (17–30 km). There exist clear seasonal variations in amplitudes of temperature and wind perturbations and wave energy in the stratosphere, with their maxima in wintertime and minima in summertime. A strong correlation is found between the wave activity and the strength of the jet stream, but there is no clear correlation between the wave activity and the vertical gradient of static stability. The intrinsic frequency and vertical and horizontal wavelengths of gravity waves in the stratosphere are 2f–3f, where f is the Coriolis parameter, and 2–3 km and 300–500 km, respectively. The intrinsic phase velocity directs westward in January and northeastward in July. The vertical flux of the stratospheric zonal momentum is mostly negative except in summertime with a maximum magnitude in January. Topography seems to be a major source of stratospheric gravity waves in wintertime. Convection can be a source of gravity waves in summertime, but it is required to know convective sources at nearby stations, due to their intermittency and locations relative to floating balloons.     

Simulation of heavy precipitation over Santacruz, Mumbai on 26 July 2005, using Mesoscale model

Summary An attempt has been made to simulate the unprecedented heavy precipitation of 94.4 cm in a day over Santacruz, Mumbai during 0300 UTC 26 July to 0300 UTC 27 July 2005. Three experiments have been conducted using Advanced Regional Prediction System model developed by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms of Oklahoma University, USA. In first experiment the model input at large domain size has been obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at 2.5° × 2.5° lat.–lon. resolution. In other two experiments model input at large as well as at small domain sizes, have been obtained from NCEP/NCAR FNL data of 1° × 1° lat.–lon. resolution. In all three experiments model’s horizontal resolution is 40 km and integration period is 30 hours from 0000 UTC 26 July 2005. Based on the temporal distribution of observed rainfall rates it is considered that the rainfall of 38.1 cm during 0900–1200 UTC on 26 July could be due to cloud burst phenomenon and 56.3 cm from 1200 UTC of 26 July to 0300 UTC of 27 July has been due to continuous regeneration of thunderstorm activity under influence of mesoscale cloud complex. It is found that model forecast of rainfall in first experiment was qualitatively as well as quantitatively very poor. Among other two, experiment with large domain size has predicted better rainfall values and location compared to the experiment with small domain size. The larger domain has produced rainfall of 41 cm as against observed rain rate of 56.3 cm. during 1200 UTC of 26 July to 0300 UTC of 27 July. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are examined in relation with the various stages of the event. The maximum values of convergence, vorticity and moisture fluxes precede the initial phase of mature stage, however vertical velocity follows the later phase of mature stage. Vorticity budget over the location of maximum rainfall, revealed the significant role of tilting term in maintenance and dissipation of the cloud complex responsible for the event. The model has simulated mixing ratios of ice, snow and hail up to height of 15 km which matches with the observations that clouds reaching up to 15 km were present at the time of event of heavy precipitation.     

ON THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS TO THE MOIST PHYSICS AND THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF NUMERICAL MODEL*

The impacts of the enhanced model's moist physics and horizontal resolution upon the QPFs(quantitative precipitation forecasts) are investigated by applying the HIRLAM(high resolution limited area model) to the summer heavy-rain cases in China.The performance of the control run,for which a 0.5°×0.5°grid spacing and a traditional "grid-box supersaturation removal+Kuo type convective paramerization" are used as the moist physics,is compared with that of the sensitivity runs with an enhanced model's moist physics(Sundqvist scheme) and an increased horizontal resolution(0.25°×0.25°),respectively.The results show:(1) The enhanced moist physics scheme(Sundqvist scheme),by introducing the cloud water content as an additional prognostic variable and taking into account briefly of the microphysics involved in the cloud-rain conversion,does bring improvements in the model's QPFs.Although the deteriorated QPFs also occur occasionally,the improvements are found in the majority of the cases,indicating the great potential for the improvement of QPFs by enhancing the model's moist physics.(2) By increasing the model's horizontal resolution from 0.5°×0.5°,which is already quite high compared with that of the conventional atmospheric soundings,to 0.25°×0.25°without the simultaneous enhancement in model physics and objective analysis,the improvements in QPFs are very limited.With higher resolution,although slight amelioration in locating the rainfall centers and in resolving some finer structures of precipitation pattern are made,the number of the mis-predicted fine structures in rainfall field increases with the enhanced model resolution as well.     

武汉市居民区大气VOCs的污染特征和来源解析

于2016年7月-2017年6月在武汉市典型居民区对大气中101种挥发性有机物（VOCs）进行了监测,以便研究武汉市典型居民区周边VOCs的组成特征和变化规律,并探讨了其主要来源.结果表明,武汉市空气中VOCs的体积分数为（46.24±24.57）×10^-9,表现为烷烃>含氧有机物>烯烃>卤代烃>芳香烃.受交通排放影响烷烃的比例上午高于下午,1月机动车尾气为武汉市主要的VOCs排放源,夏季含氧类化合物浓度高于冬季,可能更多地受本地喷涂等溶剂使用行业和光化学反应生成的影响,5-9月表现出明显的生物源排放特征.利用正交矩阵因子分析（PMF）得到武汉市居民区大气VOCs主要有6个来源,分别为燃烧源、机动车尾气、工业排放、溶剂使用、汽油挥发和植物排放.其中,燃烧源、机动车尾气贡献比例最高,是该区域VOCs控制的重要排放源.     

Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model

Summary Knowledge of the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and distribution is essential in determining the possible impact of natural or human-induced climate change. This variability can be investigated using the available TC data bases and by carrying out long-term climate model simulations for both past and future climates. A coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (referred to here as the OU-CGCM) is described and applied with a higher resolution (50 km) nested domain in the southwest Pacific region. Six-member ensembles of simulations with the OU-CGCM have been run for 80 years, from 1970 to 2050. During the period 1970–2000, the OU-CGCM runs were compared with the observed TC data base. For the period 2000–2050, two ensembles of simulations were performed, one with constant greenhouse gas concentrations and the second with increasing greenhouse gases. The OU-CGCM simulated well the observed TC frequency and distribution in the southwest Pacific during the period 1970–2000. It also produced clear interannual and interdecadal TC variability in both the fixed and enhanced greenhouse gas simulations during the period 2000–2050. The variability in TC frequencies was associated with the typical atmospheric and SST anomaly patterns that occur in periods of quiet and active TC frequencies. The main findings from the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario for the period 2000–2050 are: no change in the mean decadal number of TCs relative to the control run, but a marked increase of about 15% in the mean decadal number of TCs in the most severe WMO categories 4 and 5; the likelihood of TCs during the next 50-year period that are more intense than ever previously experienced in the Australian region; a poleward extension of TC tracks; and a poleward shift of over 2 degrees of latitude in the TC genesis region.