Geostatistical Simulation of Regionalized Pore-Size Distributions Using Min/Max Autocorrelation Factors

In many fields of the Earth Sciences, one is interested in the distribution of particle or void sizes within samples. Like many other geological attributes, size distributions exhibit spatial variability, and it is convenient to view them within a geostatistical framework, as regionalized functions or curves. Since they rarely conform to simple parametric models, size distributions are best characterized using their raw spectrum as determined experimentally in the form of a series of abundance measures corresponding to a series of discrete size classes. However, the number of classes may be large and the class abundances may be highly cross-correlated. In order to model the spatial variations of discretized size distributions using current geostatistical simulation methods, it is necessary to reduce the number of variables considered and to render them uncorrelated among one another. This is achieved using a principal components-based approach known as Min/Max Autocorrelation Factors (MAF). For a two-structure linear model of coregionalization, the approach has the attractive feature of producing orthogonal factors ranked in order of increasing spatial correlation. Factors consisting largely of noise and exhibiting pure nugget–effect correlation structures are isolated in the lower rankings, and these need not be simulated. The factors to be simulated are those capturing most of the spatial correlation in the data, and they are isolated in the highest rankings. Following a review of MAF theory, the approach is applied to the modeling of pore-size distributions in partially welded tuff. Results of the case study confirm the usefulness of the MAF approach for the simulation of large numbers of coregionalized variables.     

Solar Wind from Maximum to Minimum for Cycle 24 in Interplanetary Scintillation Monitoring Data

Astronomy Reports - A comparison is made of the data from the annual series of interplanetary scintillation monitoring performed at the maximum (2015) and minimum (2019) of solar activity. The...     

复杂山区小流域径流模拟影响因素分析

为探讨子流域划分与DEM分辨率对于地形和地表状况比较复杂的山区小流域径流模拟的影响,利用分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)对复杂山区小流域进行径流模拟,从不同的子流域划分条件下分析了子流域划分对径流模拟的影响及其变化趋势.然后通过对原有的DEM(Digital Elevation Model)进行重采样生成不同格网大小的DEM作为模型输入,研究不同DEM分辨率对复杂山区小流域径流模拟的影响.研究表明:(1)存在一个比较合理的子流域划分方案使径流深比较稳定;(2)存在一个合适的DEM分辨率使模拟得到的径流深比较稳定;(3)山区复杂流域环境,要求更加精细的子流域划分才能获得(1)中的稳定径流深.     

Joint High-Order Simulation of Spatially Correlated Variables Using High-Order Spatial Statistics

Joint geostatistical simulation techniques are used to quantify uncertainty for spatially correlated attributes, including mineral deposits, petroleum reservoirs, hydrogeological horizons, environmental contaminants. Existing joint simulation methods consider only second-order spatial statistics and Gaussian processes. Motivated by the presence of relatively large datasets for multiple correlated variables that typically are available from mineral deposits and the effects of complex spatial connectivity between grades on the subsequent use of simulated realizations, this paper presents a new approach for the joint high-order simulation of spatially correlated random fields. First, a vector random function is orthogonalized with a new decorrelation algorithm into independent factors using the so-termed diagonal domination condition of high-order cumulants. Each of the factors is then simulated independently using a high-order univariate simulation method on the basis of high-order spatial cumulants and Legendre polynomials. Finally, attributes of interest are reconstructed through the back-transformation of the simulated factors. In contrast to state-of-the-art methods, the decorrelation step of the proposed approach not only considers the covariance matrix, but also high-order statistics to obtain independent non-Gaussian factors. The intricacies of the application of the proposed method are shown with a dataset from a multi-element iron ore deposit. The application shows the reproduction of high-order spatial statistics of available data by the jointly simulated attributes.     

Joint Simulation of Grade and Rock Type in a Stratabound Copper Deposit

This work deals with the joint simulation of copper grade (as a continuous regionalized variable) and rock type (as a categorical variable) in Lince–Estefanía deposit, located in northern Chile. The region under study is heterogeneous, containing three main rock types (intrusive, andesite and breccia bodies) with different copper grade distributions. To perform joint simulation, the multi-Gaussian and pluriGaussian models are used in a combined form. To this end, three auxiliary Gaussian random fields are considered, one for simulating copper grade, up to a monotonic transformation, and two for simulating rock types according to a given truncation rule. Furthermore, the dependence between copper grade and rock types is reproduced by considering cross correlations between these Gaussian random fields. To investigate the benefits of the joint simulation algorithm, copper grade and rock types are also simulated by the traditional cascade approach and the results are compared. It is shown that the cascade approach produces hard boundaries, that is, abrupt transitions of copper grades when crossing rock-type boundaries, a condition that does not exist in the study area according to the contact analysis held on the available data. In contrast, the joint simulation approach produces gradual transitions of the copper grade near the rock-type boundaries and is more suited to the actual data.     

北江干流年最大洪峰流量变化特征及其影响研究

利用北江干流4个水文站资料建立了年最大洪峰流量序列,运用线性回归分析序列的趋势,利用Mann–Kendall法识别突变点,应用经验模态分解(EMD)分析序列的周期,采用R/S法分析序列的持续性特征,并初步探讨了序列的影响因素。结果表明:4个测站的序列均呈不显著增加趋势,不存在显著突变点,有4~6a、8~10a等多个波动周期;4个序列都具有长期记忆性,未来仍将呈不显著增加趋势。相关性分析表明,南亚夏季季风是序列的显著影响因素,太阳活动则可能影响其周期性。     

The Maximum Entropy Production Approach for Estimating Evapotranspiration: Principle and Applications

This review introduces a novel method for modeling evapotranspiration and surface heat fluxes built on the theory of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) as an application of the maximum entropy principle to non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems. The formulation of the MEP model uses the Bayesian probability theory, information theory through the concept of information entropy, and the similarity theory of the atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence. The MPE model provides simultaneous solution of latent, sensible and surface medium heat fluxes using only three input variables: net radiation, surface temperature and specific humidity. A unique feature of the MEP model is that the surface energy balance is closed at a range of space and time scales. The model does not require data of temperature and water vapor gradient, wind speed and surface roughness. It does not include empirical tunable parameters such as atmospheric and stomatal conductance. The MEP model is a promising new approach for the study of water and energy cycles of the Earth system across space-time scales.     

最大熵增地表蒸散模型:原理及应用综述

精确估算地表蒸散一直是地球系统科学中的难点问题。经典的蒸散模型大多建立在水汽输送及能量平衡约束等基础上,相关的基础理论研究进展缓慢。最大熵增地表蒸散(E-MEP)模型是在综合借鉴贝叶斯概率论、信息熵概念、非平衡态热力学理论和大气边界层湍流相似性理论的基础上,建立的全新地表蒸散理论框架,克服了经典模型的主要缺陷,包括:离散梯度模型不满足能量守恒条件,Penman模型针对饱和土壤,Penman-Monteith模型需要率定经验参数等。E-MEP模型具有3个显著特点:①同时给出地表(包括水面、雪面和冰面)蒸散量、感热通量和介质表面热通量,且在所有时间空间尺度上满足能量平衡方程;②模型公式中没有可调经验参数,不依赖于温度梯度和水汽梯度变量,不需要输入风速和表面粗糙度;③适用于任何土壤含水量和植被覆盖条件。由于E-MEP模型建立在坚实的数学物理基础上,并具有解析表达式,简单易用,其输入变量和模型参数少于传统蒸散模型使用。地表辐射、表面温度、表面比湿等模型输入变量易于实地观测获取,且可通过遥感反演获得。检验分析表明,E-MEP模型优于Penman和Penman-Monteith等传统蒸散模型。这一全新的地表蒸散模型已被用于大尺度地表水热的遥感反演和过程监测,并用于改进气候模式的参数化方案。     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Sweden

The maximum magnitude, the activity rate, and the Gutenberg-Richterb parameter as earthquake hazard parameters, have been evaluated for Sweden. The maximum likelihood method permits the combination of historical and instrumental data. The catalog used consists of 1100 earthquakes in the time interval 1375–1989. The extreme part of the catalog contains only the strongest historical earthquakes, whereas the complete part is divided into several subcatalogs, each assumed complete above a specified threshold magnitude. The uncertainty in magnitude determination was taken into account. For southern Sweden, the calculations giveb-values of 1.04 (0.05) for the whole area south of 60° N and 0.98 (0.06) for a subregion of enhanced seismicity in the Lake Vänern area. For the whole area north of 60° N, theb-value is 1.35 (0.06) and for the seismicity zone along the Gulf of Bothnia 1.26 (0.06). The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 2.4 [M_L(UPP) or M_M(UPP)] is 1.8 for the whole southern Sweden, 1.3 for the Lake Vänern region, 3.7 for northern Sweden, and 2.4 for the region along the Gulf of Bothnia. The maximum expected regional magnitude is calculated to 4.9 (0.5) for a time span of 615 years for southern Sweden and the Lake Vänern subregion, and 4.3 (0.5) for a time span of 331 years for northern Sweden and the Gulf of Bothnia subregion. However, several historical earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in nearby areas of Norway indicate that the seismic potential may be higher.     

Simulation for the Controlling Factors of Structural Deformation in the Southern Margin of the Junggar Basin

According to the differences of structural deformation characteristics, the southern margin of the Junggar basin can be divided into two segments from east to west. Arcuate thrust-and-fold belts that protrude to the north are developed in the eastern segment. There are three rows of en echelon thrust-and-fold belts in the western segment. Thrust and fold structures of basement-involved styles are developed in the first row, and décollement fold structures are formed from the second row to the third row. In order to study the factors controlling the deformation of structures, sand-box experiments have been devised to simulate the evolution of plane and profile deformation. The planar simulation results indicate that the orthogonal compression coming from Bogeda Mountain and the oblique compression with an angle of 75° between the stress and the boundary originating from North Tianshan were responsible for the deformation differences between the eastern part and the western part. The Miquan-ürümqi fault in the basement is the pre-existing condition for generating fragments from east to west. The profile simulation results show that the main factors controlling the deformation in the eastern part are related to the décollement of Jurassic coal beds alone, while those controlling the deformation in the western segment are related to both the Jurassic coal beds and the Eogene clay beds. The total amount of shortening from the Yaomoshan anticline to the Gumudi anticline in the eastern part is ~19.57 km as estimated from the simulation results, and the shortening rate is about 36.46%; that from the Qingshuihe anticline to the Anjihai anticline in the western part is ~22.01 km as estimated by the simulation results, with a shortening rate of about 32.48%. These estimated values obtained from the model results are very close to the values calculated by means of the balanced cross section.     

河流相储层地震属性优选与融合方法综述

地震属性分析已广泛应用于河流相砂体预测并取得良好效果.地震属性分析技术主要包括属性提取、属性优选与属性融合,总结了河流相砂体预测中常见的地震属性提取方式、优选及融合方法,分析了由围岩干扰、地震分辨率限制导致的属性提取与分析误区,阐述了不同属性优选与融合方法的优缺点、适用条件与发展前景.总体而言,基于线性模型的地震属性融合提升效果较差,适用于少井区域;基于非线性模型的属性融合效果较好,但仅适用于钻井较多的地区,如油气开发阶段;无监督智能属性融合可应用于无井或少井区域,是未来无井或少井条件下属性融合的重要发展趋势之一.同时,重点阐述了新提出的分频属性融合与降低围岩干扰的属性融合方法.      

关于桥址设计最大流速计算问题

从理论上推求出理想状态下断面平均流速与最大流速的关系,并应用15个水文站实测资料进行了分析,研究提出了无实测资料情况下桥址设计最大流速的计算方法.     

基于地理因子的现代降水空间模拟方法探讨

将经度、纬度、海拔、坡度、坡向、分区(干燥度)和植被等七个因子作为影响现代降水的地理因子,结合R语言程序、Arcgis空间分析和SPSS统计分析工具,探讨对现代降水进行空间模拟时,其影响因子与重建方法的选择。基于广义可加模型(GAM)用R语言实现了对现代降水影响因子的非线性分析,得到除坡度外其它各因子均与多年平均降水量之间大体呈线性相关;继而对各地理因子进行共线性检验,通过检验的因子使用最小二乘法建立与多年平均降水之间的多元线性回归模型。计算结果表明:逐次叠加地理因子进行回归分析时,其方程的R2均有提升,显示地理因子的类型对降水空间模拟具有一定的影响;非线性和线性建模中坡向因子的P值都大于0.05,说明在本研究中其对降水的影响不显著;线性回归建模的模型拟合优度R2为0.849,非线性模型的解释达到89.6%,两种建模结果都具有一定的可信度,对分析今后中国大范围区域中现代降水的影响因子及空间模拟方法具有重要的参考意义。     

Stochastic Simulation Model for the Spatial Characterization of Lung Cancer Mortality Risk and Study of Environmental Factors

This paper presents a study in which the lung cancer risk in males was characterized based on a simulation model of mortality rates. Block sequential simulation of mortality rates, measured in counties of different sizes, was implemented and applied to a normal grid of continental Portugal with high spatial resolution. The uncertainty in the mortality rate measurements, directly related to differences in the population size of each county, was integrated in a block direct sequential simulation through Poisson kriging of local means and variances. Three age groups were examined: 50–59, 60–69, and 70–79 years. After the continuous geographic patterns of lung cancer risk were obtained, factors potentially associated with the main areas of risk were analyzed for southern Portugal. Thus, a defined class of land use and dry weather events, related to airborne particulate matter, were found to be associated with high-risk areas, resulting in high local spatial correlation patterns in all three age groups.     

二连盆地中生代构造变形主控因素:物理模拟与讨论

二连盆地是中国东北部中生代含油气盆地,与中国东部中生代裂陷盆地之间存在显著的几何学与运动学相似性,根据盆内构造线走向和典型地震剖面构造样式可划分为中央正向裂陷带和周缘斜向裂陷带。尽管前人对盆地中生代构造变形开展了大量研究,但有关同期构造控制因素的认识尚不清晰。为此,研究以二连盆地为原型,设计了3组分别改变伸展速率、伸展方向及同沉积作用的平面沙箱模型。实验结果表明伸展方向控制裂陷内部断层特征;南东向的伸展速率改变深层构造薄弱带的扩展和断裂发育规模;同沉积作用促进基底滑脱层的活动强度,且进一步抑制边界断裂的生长。模拟结果还揭示了伸展方向是该盆地构造变形的主要控制因素;同沉积作用和伸展速率为次要控制因素。同时根据中国东部及邻区典型中生代裂陷盆地的几何学与运动学相似性,认为"南东向伸展"可以提供较好的运动学解释。     

Oscillatory Zoning in an Agate from Kazakhstan: Autocorrelation Functions and Fractal Statistics of Trace Element Distributions

The results of numerical treatment of proton-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) data for trace element (Fe, Sr, Zn) contents in agate from the environment surrounding the city of Pavlodar (Kazakhstan) are presented in this paper. In order to mathematically characterize the zoning pattern, fractal geometry, correlation, and Fourier analyses were used for investigation of trace element distributions. Autocorrelation calculations show that oscillations in Fe, Sr, and Zn along the profile have periodic components. It is shown that trace element distributions can be described in terms of fractal geometry. The measured Hurst exponents by methods of the width and the power spectrum are mostly in the range 0.14–0.28, indicating fractal scaling and antipersistent behavior of trace elements along the profile.     

Factors Determining the Location of the Chlorophyll Maximum and the Fate of Algal Production within the Tidal Freshwater James River

Longitudinal variation in factors affecting phytoplankton production were analyzed to better understand the mechanisms that cause the formation of a chlorophyll maximum within the tidal freshwater James River. Phytoplankton production was two- to threefold higher in the region where persistent elevated chlorophyll concentrations occurred. Near this site, the morphology of the James transitions from a narrow, deep channel to a broad expanse with shallow areas adjoining the main channel. Shallower depths resulted in greater average irradiance within the water column and suggest that release from light limitation was the principal factor accounting for the location of the chlorophyll maximum. Grazing rates were low indicating that little of the algal production was directly consumed by zooplankton. Low exploitation by zooplankton was attributed to poor food quality due to high concentrations of non-algal particulate matter and potential presence of cyanobacteria. Metabolism data suggest that two thirds of net primary production was respired in the vicinity of the chlorophyll maximum and one third was exported via fluvial and tidal advection. Comparison of water column and ecosystem metabolism indicates that the bulk of respiration occurred within the sediments and that sedimentation was the dominant loss process for phytoplankton.     

隧道围岩稳定分析的最小安全系数法

关于岩体稳定评判准则至今尚未达到成熟的阶段,从稳定的定义至量化的标准等一系列基本问题尚未形成明确的体系。目前主要利用塑性区或位移扰动区来判断围岩的稳定范围。根据弹性理论,借助工程中安全系数的概念,利用Mohr-Coulomb和Drucker-Prager强度准则,建立基于单元的安全系数法,通过FLAC3D中的FISH语言实现了其求解过程。通过求解围岩稳定的安全系数,建立了评价围岩稳定的量化指标,给出了围岩稳定的安全范围,为锚固支护提供合理的支护参数。     

Estimation of Geological Attributes from a Well Log: An Application of Hidden Markov Chains

Geophysical well logs used in petroleum exploration consist of measurements of physical properties (such as radioactivity, density, and acoustic velocity) that are digitally recorded at a fixed interval (typically half a foot) along the length of the exploratory well. The measurements are informative of the unobserved rock type alternations along the well, which is critical for the assessment of petroleum reservoirs. The well log data that are analyzed here are from a North Sea petroleum reservoir where two distinct strata have been identified from large scale seismic data. We apply a hidden Markov chain model to infer properties of the rock type alternations, separately for each stratum. The hidden Markov chain uses Dirichlet prior distributions for the Markov transition probabilities between rock types. The well log measurements, conditional on the unobserved rock types, are modeled using Gaussian distributions. Our analysis provides likelihood estimates of the parameters of the Dirichlet prior and the parameters of the measurement model. For fixed values of the parameter estimates we calculate the posterior distributions for the rock type transition probabilities, given the well log measurement data. We then propagate the model parameter uncertainty into the posterior distributions using resampling from the maximum likelihood model. The resulting distributions can be used to characterize the two reservoir strata and possible differences between them. We believe that our approach to modeling and analysis is novel and well suited to the problem. Our approach has elements in common with empirical Bayes methods in that unspecified parameters are estimated using marginal likelihoods. Additionally, we propagate the parameter uncertainty into the final posterior distributions.