Error distribution modelling of satellite soil moisture measurements for hydrological applications

Satellite‐based soil moisture data accuracies are of important concerns by hydrologists because they could significantly influence hydrological modelling uncertainty. Without proper quantification of their uncertainties, it is difficult to optimize the hydrological modelling system and make robust decisions. Currently, the satellite soil moisture data uncertainty has been limited to summary statistics with the validations mainly from the in situ measurements. This study attempts to build the first error distribution model with additional higher‐order uncertainty modelling for satellite soil moisture observations. The methodology is demonstrated by a case study using the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite soil moisture observations. The validation is based on soil moisture estimates from hydrological modelling, which is more relevant to the intended data use than the in situ measurements. Four probability distributions have been explored to find suitable error distribution curves using the statistical tests and bootstrapping resampling technique. General extreme value is identified as the most suitable one among all the curves. The error distribution model is still in its infant stage, which ignores spatial and temporal correlations, and nonstationarity. Further improvements should be carried out by the hydrological community by expanding the methodology to a wide range of satellite soil moisture data using different hydrological models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of VHF scintillations in the equatorial anomaly crest region in India

The characteristics of ionospheric scintillations at Rajkot in the equatorial anomaly crest region in India are described for the years 1987–1991 by monitoring the 244-MHz transmission from the satellite FLEETSAT. This period covers the ascending phase of solar cycle 22. Scintillations occur predominantly in the pre-midnight period during equinoxes and winter seasons and in the post-midnight period during summer season. During equinoxes and winter, scintillation occurrence increases with solar activity, whilst in summer it is found to decrease with solar activity. Statistically, scintillation occurrence is suppressed by magnetic activity. The characteristics observed during winter and equinoxes are similar to those seen at the equatorial station, Trivandrum. This, coupled with the nature of the post-sunset equatorial F-region drift and h‘F variations, supports the view that at the anomaly crest station, scintillations are of equatorial origin during equinox and winter, whilst in summer they may be of mid-latitude type. The variations in scintillation intensity (in dB) with season and solar activity are also reported.     

Estimating forest aboveground biomass using HJ-1 Satellite CCD and ICESat GLAS waveform data

The ecosystem in northeastern China and the Russian Far East is a hotspot of scientific research into the global carbon balance. Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important component in the land surface carbon cycle. In this study, using forest inventory data and forest distribution data, the AGB was estimated for forest in Daxinganlin in northeastern China by combining charge-coupled device (CCD) data from the Small Satellite for Disaster and Environment Monitoring and Forecast (HJ-1) and Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) waveform data from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). The forest AGB prediction models were separately developed for different forest types in the research area at GLAS footprint level from GLAS waveform parameters and field survey plot biomass in the Changqing (CQ) Forest Center, which was calculated from forest inventory data. The resulted statistical regression models have a R ²=0.68 for conifer and R ²=0.71 for broadleaf forests. These models were used to estimate biomass for all GLAS footprints of forest located in the study area. All GLAS footprint biomass coupled with various spectral reflectivity parameters and vegetation indices derived from HJ-1 satellite CCD data were used in multiple regression analyses to establish biomass prediction models (R ²=0.55 and R ²=0.52 for needle and broadleaf respectively). Then the models were used to produce a forest AGB map for the whole study area using the HJ-1 data. Biomass data obtained from forest inventory data of the Zhuanglin (ZL) Forest Center were used as independent field measurements to validate the AGB estimated from HJ-1 CCD data (R ²=0.71). About 80% of biomass samples had an error less than 20 t ha⁻¹, and the mean error of all validation samples is 5.74 t ha⁻¹. The pixel-level biomass map was then stratified into different biomass levels to illustrate the AGB spatial distribution pattern in this area. It was found that HJ-1 wide-swath data and GLAS waveform data can be combined to estimate forest biomass with good precision, and the biomass data can be used as input data for future carbon budget analysis.

     

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radar hydrology: rainfall estimation

Radar observations of rainfall and their use in hydrologic research provide the focus for the paper. Radar-rainfall products are crucial for input to runoff and flood prediction models, validation of satellite remote sensing algorithms, and for statistical characterization of extreme rainfall frequency. In this context we discuss the issues of radar-rainfall product development, and the theoretical and practical requirements of validating radar-rainfall maps and new radar technologies. We discuss a framework for reflectivity based rainfall estimation, including estimation of uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates. Validation of radar-rainfall products is a major challenge for broad utilization of these products in hydrologic applications. In the discussion of radar-rainfall prediction we focus on orographically induced extreme rainfall and flooding, discuss the issues of detection, statistical sample size, and scale effects. We conclude the paper with a set of recommendations for research priorities and experimental requirements to address them.     

基于三亚VHF雷达的场向不规则体观测研究：4.太阳活动低年夏季F区回波

太阳活动低年夏季,低纬电离层F区场向不规则体表现出与太阳活动高年和其他季节明显不同的特征.本文利用我国三亚站（18.4°N,109.6°E,地磁倾角纬度dip latitude 12.8°N）VHF雷达、电离层测高仪、GPS闪烁监测仪和美国C/NOFS卫星观测数据,研究了太阳活动低年夏季我国低纬电离层F区场向不规则体的基本特征.分析发现无论磁静日还是磁扰日,夏季电离层F区不规则体回波主要出现于地方时午夜以后,回波出现的时间较短,高度范围较小,伴随着扩展F出现,但没有同时段的L波段电离层闪烁.太阳活动低年夏季午夜后的低纬电离层F区不规则体回波,可能并不总是与赤道等离子体泡沿磁力线向低纬地区的延伸相关,而可能由本地Es等扰动过程引起.     

Investigation of the temporal relation of remotely sensed coastal water quality with GIS modelled upstream soil erosion

Hydrological processes at the river basin influence the quality of downstream water bodies by controlling the loads of nutrients and suspended solids. Although their monitoring is important for social, economic and environmental reasons, in‐situ measurements are too expensive and thus too sparse to describe their relations. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal relations of soil erosion in the upstream part of river basins with water quality characteristics in the downstream coastal zone, using satellite remote sensing and GIS modelling. Data from satellite missions of MODIS, SRTM and TRMM were used to describe the soil erosion factors of the Universal Soil Loss Equation in three river basins, and MERIS satellite data was used to estimate chlorophyll‐a and total suspended matter concentrations in the coastal zone of northwest Aegean Sea in Greece, where the rivers discharge. The resulting time series showed an average correlation of upstream rainfall with downstream water quality, which increased when soil erosion was introduced. Higher correlations were observed with the use of a time lag, revealing a variable delay between the three test sites. Lower correlation coefficients were observed for chlorophyll‐a, due to the sensitivity of algae to environmental conditions. The use of free of charge satellite data and easy to operate GIS models renders the findings of this work useful for coastal zone management bodies, in order to help increase aquaculture productivity, predict algal blooms and predict siltation of ports. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

低纬电离层TEC起伏与相位闪烁的统计特征

穿过电离层不规则体传播后的无线电波,其振幅和相位出现快速随机起伏,即电离层闪烁.为了量化电离层不规则体和相位闪烁的强度,本文提出用TEC起伏δTEC作为特征参量,并用δTEC的标准差构建一种新指数σ_tec.文中证明指数σ_tec与相位闪烁指数完全等效.在电离层强闪烁期间,经常出现信号短暂失锁和周跳,导致TEC值突跳和不连续.为此,本文设计了一种周跳检测与校正的批处理算法,用于消除TEC值突跳.在此基础上,利用位于我国中南部电离层闪烁监测台网2012-2015年的观测数据,考察了GPS信号相位闪烁和不规则体的统计特征.结果表明,我国低纬电离层不规则体和相位闪烁与振幅闪烁随地方时和月份变化的特征类似,一天之中主要出现在日落后至黎明前,一年之中,春季不规则体出现最频繁、秋季次之,呈现春秋不对称性,冬夏季出现很少.此外,我们还比较分析了指数S4与σ_tec的联系,两者之间显著正相关表明,小于第一菲涅尔带尺度的小尺度不规则体和大于第一菲涅尔带尺度的大尺度不规则体一般同时存在.

     

Evaluation of inundation areas resulting from the diversion of an extreme discharge towards the sea: case study in Tabasco,Mexico

This investigation comprises the hydraulic characterisation of a river located in the Mexican State of Tabasco, including the performance of its flood plain under the action of an extreme river discharge. This is done through the combination of a high‐quality validation dataset, remote sensing information, and a standard 2D numerical model. The dataset was collected during an intensive field campaign that took place in August 2009. In particular, in situ measurements of river discharge, bathymetry, water level, and velocities through a whole tidal cycle are employed along with multi‐spectral satellite imagery. The purpose of this study is twofold. Firstly, the integrated approach comprising the combination of a 2D hydrodynamic model, high‐quality in situ measurements and satellite imagery reduce the uncertainty in the model parameterisation and results. Secondly, it is shown that freely available sources of information, such as the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data can be processed and utilized in 2D hydraulic models. This is particularly important in countries where high‐resolution elevation data is not yet available. It is demonstrated that the selected approach is useful when the study of possible consequences in a flood plain induced by an extreme flood discharge are sought. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the low-latitude ionospheric electron density and plasma turbulence in the November 2004 storm period

The storm period of 8–12 November 2004 offers an opportunity for insight into the phenomena of low-latitude ionospheric structure during geomagnetically disturbed times because of the strength of the disturbances, the timing of the storms, and the instrumentation that was operating during the interval. We will take advantage of these factors to model the ambient ionosphere and the plasma turbulence responsible for radio scintillation within it, using the AFRL low-latitude ambient/turbulent ionospheric model and the storm-time model features described in the companion paper [Retterer, J.M., Kelley, M.C., 2009. Solar-wind drivers for low-latitude ionospheric models during geomagnetic storms. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., this issue]. The model plasma densities show very good agreement with the densities measured by the Jicamarca ISR as well as with the total electron content (TEC) measured by the Boston College South American chain of GPS receivers. The detection by the radar of coherent returns from plasma turbulence match well the times of predicted ionospheric instability. The predicted geographic extent of the occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles was matched by DMSP satellite observations and our forecasts of scintillation strength were validated with measurements of S4 at Ancon and Antofagasta by stations of the AFRL SCINDA network.     

Observations of long-lived solar wind streams during 1990-1993

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) can be used to identify changes in solar wind parameters over a wide range in heliographic latitude and elongation and constrain models of its large-scale structure, velocity and density. This paper reviews the scintillation density mapping method specifically, and presents over three years of data taken between March 1990 and September 1993 with the 3.6 hectare array in Cambridge. A novel form of synoptic plot that is particularly sensitive to corotating structures is introduced, and low-density streams are identified by their unequivocal signatures within it. Stable corotating structures are evident throughout - even during the active phase of the solar cycle - and specific periods are examined. Density measurements inferred from scintillation are compared with IMP-8 data for the same period and are shown to be in good agreement, giving further support to the scintillation/density relationship determined by Tappin (1986).     

The earthquake-related disturbances in ionosphere and project of the first China seismo-electromagnetic satellite

Based on the case studies and statistical analysis of earthquake-related ionospheric disturbances mainly from DEMETER satellite, ground-based GPS and ionosounding data, this paper summarizes the statistical characteristics of earthquake-related ionospheric disturbances, including electromagnetic emissions, plasma perturbations and variation of energetic particle flux. According to the main results done by Chinese scientists, fusing with the existed study from global researches, seismo-ionospheric disturbances usually occurred a few days or hours before earthquake occurrence. Paralleling to these case studies, lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere (LAI) coupling mechanisms are checked and optimized. A thermo-electric model was proposed to explain the seismo-electromagnetic effects before earthquakes. A propagation model was put forward to explain the electromagnetic waves into the ionosphere. According to the requirement of earthquake prediction research, China seismo-electromagnetic satellite, the first space-based platform of Chinese earthquake stereoscopic observation system, is proposed and planned to launch at about the end of 2014. It focuses on checking the LAI model and distinguishing earthquake-related ionospheric disturbance. The preliminary design for the satellite will adopt CAST-2000 platform with eight payloads onboard. It is believed that the satellite will work together with the ground monitoring network to improve the capability to capture seismo-electromagnetic information, which is beneficial for earthquake monitoring and prediction researches.     

Prediction of streamflow regimes over large geographical areas: interpolated flow–duration curves for the Danube region

Flow–duration curves (FDCs) are essential to support decisions on water resources management, and their regionalization is fundamental for the assessment of ungauged basins. In comparison with calibrated rainfall–runoff models, statistical methods provide data-driven estimates representing a useful benchmark. The objective of this work is the interpolation of FDCs from ~500 discharge gauging stations in the Danube. To this aim we use total negative deviation top-kriging (TNDTK), as multi-regression models are shown to be unsuitable for representing FDCs across all durations and sites. TNDTK shows a high accuracy for the entire Danube region, with overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values computed in a leave-p-out cross-validation scheme (p equal to one site, one-third and half of the sites), all above 0.88. A reliability measure based on kriging variance is attached to each interpolated FDC at ~4000 prediction nodes. The GIS layer of regionalized FDCs is made available for broader use in the region.     

A comparison of TEC fluctuations and scintillations at Ascension Island

With increasing reliance on space-based platforms for global navigation and communication, concerns about the impact of ionospheric scintillation on these systems have become a high priority. Recently, the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) performed amplitude scintillation measurements of L1 (1.575 MHz) signals from GPS satellites at Ascension Island (14.45° W, 7.95° S; magnetic latitude 16° S) during February–April, 1998, to compare amplitude scintillations with fluctuations of the total electron content (TEC). Ascension Island is located in the South Atlantic under the southern crest of the equatorial anomaly of F2 ionization where scintillations will be much enhanced during the upcoming solar maximum period. Ascension Island is included in the global network of the International GPS Service (IGS) and the GPS receivers in this network report the carrier to noise (C/N) ratio, the dual frequency carrier phase and pseudorange data at 30-s intervals. Such data with a sampling interval of 30 s were analyzed to determine TEC, the rate of change of TEC (ROT) and also ROTI, defined as the standard deviation of ROT. The spatial scale of ROTI, sampled at 30 s interval, will correspond to 6 km when the vector sum of the ionospheric projection of the satellite velocity and the irregularity drift orthogonal to the propagation path is of the order of 100 m/s. On the other hand, the scale-length of the amplitude scintillation index corresponds to the Fresnel dimension which is about 400 m for the GPS L1 frequency and an ionospheric height of 400 km. It is shown that, in view of the co-existence of large and small scale irregularities in equatorial irregularity structures, during the early evening hours, and small magnitude of irregularity drifts, ROTI measurements can be used to predict the presence of scintillation causing irregularities. The quantitative relationship between ROTI and S4, however, varies considerably due to variations of the ionospheric projection of the satellite velocity and the ionospheric irregularity drift. During the post-midnight period, due to the decay of small scale irregularities leading to a steepening of irregularity power spectrum, ROTI, on occasions, may not be associated with detectable levels of scintillation. In view of the power law type of irregularity power spectrum, ROTI will, in general, be larger than S4 and the ratio, ROTI/S4, in the present dataset is found to vary between 2 and 10. At high latitudes, where the ionospheric motion, driven by large electric fields of magnetospheric origin, is much enhanced during magnetically active periods, ROTI/S4 may be considerably larger than that in the equatorial region.     

Application of support vector machine and relevance vector machine to determine evaporative losses in reservoirs

This article employs Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) for prediction of Evaporation Losses (E) in reservoirs. SVM that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing ε‐insensitive loss function has been adopted. RVM is based on a Bayesian formulation of a linear model with an appropriate prior that results in a sparse representation. The input of SVM and RVM models are mean air temperature (T) ( °C), average wind speed (WS) (m/sec), sunshine hours (SH)(hrs/day), and mean relative humidity (RH) (%). Equations have been also developed for prediction of E. The developed RVM model gives variance of the predicted E. A comparative study has also been presented between SVM, RVM and ANN models. The results indicate that the developed SVM and RVM can be used as a practical tool for prediction of E. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reducing the Uncertainties in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing

Direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) remains a leading contributor to climate prediction uncertainty. To monitor the spatially and temporally varying global atmospheric aerosol load, satellite remote sensing is required. Despite major advances in observing aerosol amount, type, and distribution from space, satellite data alone cannot provide enough quantitative detail, especially about aerosol microphysical properties, to effect the required improvement in estimates of DARF and the anthropogenic component of DARF. However, the combination of space-based and targeted suborbital measurements, when used to constrain climate models, represents an achievable next step likely to provide the needed advancement.     

Specification and forecasting of scintillations in communication/navigation links: current status and future plans

The ionosphere often becomes turbulent and develops electron density irregularities. These irregularities scatter radio waves to cause amplitude and phase scintillation and affect satellite communication and GPS navigation systems. The effects are most intense in the equatorial region, moderate at high latitudes and minimum at middle latitudes. The thermosphere and the ionosphere seem to internally control the generation of irregularities in the equatorial region and its forcing by solar transients is an additional modulating factor. On the other hand, the irregularity generation mechanisms in the high-latitude ionosphere seem to be driven by magnetospheric processes and, therefore, high-latitude scintillations can be tracked by following the trail of energy from the sun in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections. The development of a global specification and forecast system for scintillation is needed in view of our increased reliance on space-based communication and navigation systems, which are vulnerable to ionospheric scintillation. Such scintillation specification systems are being developed for the equatorial region. An equatorial satellite equipped with an appropriate suite of sensors, capable of detecting ionospheric irregularities and tracking the drivers that control the formation of ionospheric irregularities, has also been planned for the purpose of specifying and forecasting equatorial scintillations. In the polar region, scintillation specification and forecast systems are yet to emerge although modeling and observations of polar cap plasma structures, their convection and associated irregularities have advanced greatly in recent years. Global scintillation observations made during the S-RAMP Space Weather Month in September 1999 are currently being analyzed to study the effects of magnetic storms on communication and navigation systems.     

极区电离层闪烁指数和对流速度关系的建模研究

电离层对流速度会显著影响电离层闪烁的发生,尤其是在具有较大对流速度的高纬极区,且其对相位闪烁指数和幅度闪烁指数影响各不相同.本文基于弱散射条件下电离层闪烁理论,初步构建了极区电离层闪烁指数与对流速度的显式关系模型,模型结果表明当相位谱指数取定值3时,相位闪烁指数和幅度闪烁指数的比值与对流速度存在线性关系;进而,利用加拿大Hall Beach台站的观测数据,验证了由电离层闪烁指数比值推断电离层对流速度这一方法在极区的适用性.这不仅提升我们对电离层闪烁机理的认识,也提供了一种获取极区电离层对流速度的新途径,将有助于改善和提高我国北斗全球导航系统的服务精度.

     

Prediction of streamflow regimes over large geographical areas: interpolated flow–duration curves for the Danube region

ABSTRACT

Flow–duration curves (FDCs) are essential to support decisions on water resources management, and their regionalization is fundamental for the assessment of ungauged basins. In comparison with calibrated rainfall–runoff models, statistical methods provide data-driven estimates representing a useful benchmark. The objective of this work is the interpolation of FDCs from ~500 discharge gauging stations in the Danube. To this aim we use total negative deviation top-kriging (TNDTK), as multi-regression models are shown to be unsuitable for representing FDCs across all durations and sites. TNDTK shows a high accuracy for the entire Danube region, with overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values computed in a leave-p-out cross-validation scheme (p equal to one site, one-third and half of the sites), all above 0.88. A reliability measure based on kriging variance is attached to each interpolated FDC at ~4000 prediction nodes. The GIS layer of regionalized FDCs is made available for broader use in the region.     

Comparison of non-parametric and parametric water temperature models on the Nivelle River,France

Abstract

Water temperature is an important abiotic variable in aquatic habitat studies and may be one of the factors limiting the potential fish habitat (e.g. salmonids) in a stream. Stream water temperatures are modelled using statistical approaches with air temperature and streamflow as exogenous variables in the Nivelle River, southern France. Two different models are used to model mean weekly maximum temperature data: a non-parametric approach, the k-nearest neighbours method (k-NN) and a parametric approach, the periodic autoregressive model with exogenous variables (PARX). The k-NN is a data-driven method, which consists of finding, at each point of interest, a small number of neighbours nearest to this value, and the prediction is estimated based on these neighbours. The PARX model is an extension of commonly-used autoregressive models in which parameters are estimated for each period within the years. Different variants of air temperature and flow are used in the model development. In order to test the performance of these models, a jack-knife technique is used, whereby model goodness of fit is assessed separately for each year. The results indicate that both models give good performances, but the PARX model should be preferred, because of its good estimation of the individual weekly temperatures and its ability to explicitly predict water temperature using exogenous variables.