内蒙古地区地方性震级的量规函数研究

选取2008年1月~2015年11月内蒙古测震台网81个台站所记录的6342次地震事件,基于震级残差统计方法,计算了81个台站单台震级与台网平均震级的偏差、平均偏差和标准偏差。分析认为,BHS等6个台站震级偏差较大的原因可能是台站场地响应放大、台基风化等。台基校正前、后单台震级平均偏差值ΔMLi随震中距的变化曲线显示,曲线形态基本未有大的改变,台基校正后较之前震级平均偏差绝对值降低0.01,表明台基对地方性震级偏差的影响不大。同时,进行了81个台站的台基校正获得了内蒙古新量规函数,结果表明,全国量规函数除了震中距为0~120km时适合于内蒙古地区以外,其余情况下均偏高,不符合内蒙古地区的特征。因此,本文修定了全国量规函数,得到了校正后的内蒙古地区量规函数。     

Calculation of Calibration Functions and Explosive Aftershock Magnitudes in the Near Field

The current calibration function used in calculating the magnitude of natural earthquakes within 5km is a constant; a fact that causes several serious difficulties for the calculation of the magnitude of small and shallow-focus earthquakes. According to the attenuation law of explosions and the propagation theory of elastic waves, the calibration function is calculated for near field quakes from 0kin to 5kin. Magnitudes of two aftershock sequences are calculated. The magnitudes of most explosion earthquakes are small, ranging mainly from magnitude -0.5 to 1.0. The M-t chart of the explosive aftershocks is completely different from that of strong earthquake aftershocks. It not only shows positive columnar lines indieatJng large magnitudes but also short negative columnar lines indicating small magnitudes.     

河北测震台网单台震级偏差分析

以河北测震台网记录的河北及周边地区地震事件为数据源,计算单台测定震级与台网平均震级的平均偏差、标准偏差,采用统计、对比、归纳分析等方法,分析偏差的分布情况,依据震中距分段计算平均偏差,得到震级偏差的分布规律及相应校正值;最后通过对量规函数、台基岩性等进行校正,对比拟合出符合河北台站特点的新量规函数,使误差精度在规定范围之内。     

Improvements on the magnitude-geographic criterion of tsunami hazard

We suggest supplementing the MLH magnitude with the threshold (M _thr) values of MPV, MSH, and MLH magnitudes (Russian scales), as well as M _S and M _W now in wide international use, for issuing tsunami alerts for hazards emanating from the main tsunamigenic zones of the Pacific Ocean. Relations are given to connect the MLH to these magnitudes. A comparative analysis applied to a catalog of large (M ≥ 6) earthquakes in the North Pacific and to the associated tsunami catalog gave the probabilities of false alerts and unpredicted tsunamis as functions of the threshold magnitude value (M _thr). A two-step decision rule is proposed to issue tsunami alerts due to the tsunamigenic zones situated close to the Far East coast of Russia.     

A ground motion prediction equation for JMA instrumental seismic intensity for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regimes

The JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity scale has been used in Japan as a measure of earthquake ground shaking effects since 1949. It has traditionally been assessed after an earthquake based on the judgment of JMA officials. In 1996 the scale was revised as an instrumental seismic intensity measure (I_JMA) that could be used to rapidly assess the expected damage after an earthquake without having to conduct a survey. Since its revision, Japanese researchers have developed several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for I_JMA using Japanese ground motion data. In this paper, we develop a new empirical GMPE for I_JMA based on the strong motion database and functional forms used to develop similar GMPEs for peak response parameters as part of the PEER (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center) Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. We consider this relationship to be valid for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regimes for moment magnitudes ( M ) ranging from 5.0 up to 7.5–8.5 (depending on fault mechanism) and rupture distances ranging from 0 to 200 km. A comparison of this GMPE with relationships developed by Japanese researchers for crustal and shallow subduction earthquakes shows relatively good agreement among all of the relationships at M 7.0 but relatively poor agreement at small magnitudes. Our GMPE predicts the highest intensities at small magnitudes, which together with research on other ground motion parameters, indicates that it provides conservative or upwardly biased estimates of I_JMA for M <5.5. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近场震级起算函数确定与爆炸余震震级计算

在天然地震背景下，由于现有的起算函数在0—5km范围内是一个常数，因此，对于震源深度较浅的小地震震级的测定遇到了困难，本文通过理论计算和爆炸地震波实际测量两种方法，确定了近场0—5k瑚范围内的震级起算函数。用本文确定的震级起算函数计算了两次爆炸余震序列事件的震级，绝大多数的余震震级非常小，主要分布在-0．5—1．0级之间，余震序列的M-t图与一般强余震M-t图明显不同，它不仅存在反映较大震级的正向柱状线，而且还存在反映较小震级的负向短柱状线。     

Physical size of tsunamigenic earthquakes of the northwestern Pacific

The new scale M_t of tsunami magnitude is a reliable measure of the seismic moment of a tsunamigenic earthquake as well as the overall strength of a tsunami source. This M_t scale was originally defined by Abe (1979) in terms of maximum tsunami amplitudes at large distances from the source. A method is developed whereby it is possible to determine M_t at small distances on the basis of the regional tsunami data obtained at 30 tide stations in Japan. The relation between log H, maximum amplitude (m) and log Δ, a distance of not less than 100 km away from the source (km) is found to be linear, with a slope close to 1.0. Using three tsunamigenic earthquakes with known moment magnitudes M_w, for calibration, the relation, M_t = log H + log Δ + D, is obtained, where D is 5.80 for single-amplitude (crest or trough) data and 5.55 for double-amplitude (crest-to-trough) data. Using a number of tsunami amplitude data, M_t is assigned to 80 tsunamigenic earthquakes that occurred in the northwestern Pacific, mostly in Japan, during the period from 1894 to 1981. The M_t values are found to be essentially equivalent to M_w for 25 events with known M_w. The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake has the largest M_t, 9.0. Of all the 80 events listed, at least seven unusual earthquakes which generated disproportionately-large tsunamis for their surface-wave magnitude M_s are identified from the relation. From the viewpoint of tsunami hazard reduction, the present results provide a quantitative basis for predicting maximum tsunami amplitudes at a particular site.     

新疆及邻区体波震级初步分析研究

依据《地震震级的规定（GB 17740—2017）》,分析了2009—2017年新疆地震台网所记录的新疆及邻区476次中深源地震事件,测定了13601个m_b（短周期体波震级）和12035个m_B（BB）（宽频带体波震级）的数据样本,回归分析m_b和m_B（BB）得到回归方程及量规函数,结果显示m_b和m_B（BB）相关系数为0.966,表明两者显著相关。因此,建议对于中强型中深源地震可以直接从原始速度型宽频带数字地震记录上测定长周期体波震级m_B（BB）,提高地震速报测定的速度和精度。通过震级偏差统计和台站场地响应计算,分析新疆地震台网中的XKR、HTA、ATS和KSZ等地震台站震级偏差较大的原因为砂岩、灰岩、砂土层等类型的台基放大了场地响应,说明台基类型对体波震级偏差的影响较大。与NEIC测定的体波震级对比时,发现新疆地震台网测定体波震级平均偏大0.42级,且偏差随着震源深度的增加有增大的趋势。     

江西地区地方性震级的量规函数与台基校正值研究

本文采用《江西测震台网地震观测报告》,选取2007年10月~2015年12月所记录的499次M_L≥1.5地震事件,对各子台测定震级与台网平均震级偏差进行定量的统计分析,从震级偏差频次分布、量规函数、台基、方位角等方面分析产生震级偏差的原因。在对量规函数和台基进行校正后,震级偏差绝对值在0.2以内的样本数达到了68.6%,并给出了适合江西地区的量规函数和台基校正值。     

Estimation of Maximum Earthquakes in Northeast India

We attempt to estimate possible maximum earthquakes in the northeast Indian region for four seismic source zones, namely EHZ, MBZ, EBZ, and SHZ, which encapsulates the various seismogenic structures of the region and also for combined source zones taken as a single seismic source regime. The latter case exhibits a high maximum earthquake estimate of M_W 9.4 (±0.85) through Bayesian interpretation of frequency magnitude distribution with Gamma function implicating a moderate deviation from the standard Gutenberg Richter model at the higher magnitudes. However, tapering Gutenberg Richter models with corner magnitudes at M_W 8.01, 8.7 and 9.1, respectively indicated maximum values corresponding to M_W 8.4, 9.0, and 9.3. The former approach was applied to each of the source zones wherein the data are presented in parts according to the data completeness, thereof. EHZ, MBZ, EBZ and SHZ are seen with maximum earthquakes of M_W 8.35 (±0.59), 8.79 (±0.31), 8.20 (±0.50), and 8.73 (±0.70), respectively. The maximum possible earthquakes estimated for each individual zone are seen to be lower than that estimated for the single regime. However, the pertaining return periods estimated for the combined zone are far less than those estimated for the demarcated ones.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Research on the Result of Calibration for the Location of the Seismic Array in Shanghai

The paper proposes the calibration theory and methods for the Shanghai seismic array and analyzes the calibration results. As a result, the calibration results for the seismic array based on 2 typical earthquakes have been drawn; the difference of calibration results between Hokkaido and Honshu region in Japan is investigated. And calibration results of different directions, different epicenter distances and different magnitudes are probed into. The result shows that the location of earthquakes on the Shanghai seismic array is greatly improved.     

Revision of magnitudes of large shallow earthquakes, 1897–1912

In previous research, trace amplitudes of surface wave maxima recorded by undamped Milne seismographs were used to determine the surface-wave magnitudes M_s of large shallow earthquakes which occurred prior to 1912. For this purpose, the effective gain of these instruments was calibrated by using the surface-wave magnitudes M_s(GR) which were calculated from the unpublished worksheets for Seismicity of the Earth of Gutenberg and Richter. In this paper, the real quality of M_s(GR) is critically re-evaluated by using independent sets of data. It is found that M_s(GR) for the period 1904–1909 is considerably overestimated. The average excess from the real M_s is 0.5 units for 1904–1906, 0.4 for 1907, 0.3 for 1908–1909 and 0.0 for 1910–1912. This overestimation is so systematic and large that the previous results are all redetermined. The average effective gain of Milne instruments is revised to be 21.9; previously, the gain depended on M_s. This revision results in systematic reduction in the previously assigned magnitudes. The revised values of M_s for 264 shallow earthquakes, with M_s=6.8 and over in the period 1897–1912 inclusive, are listed. The present revision is large enough to preclude the possibility of the high activity of large shallow earthquakes around the turn of the century. The present results have a direct effect on all the magnitude catalogues of shallow earthquakes which occurred prior to 1909.     

川滇地区烈度计台站测定震级校正分析

烈度计台与测震台的布设环境、仪器类型不同,所测定的震级值存在一定差异。收集2017-2019年川滇地区301个烈度计台站记录的46次M_L 3.0以上地震,进行震级校正。统计烈度计实测震级值与测震台网平均震级值的偏差,对原量规函数进行修正,进而做台站校正。综合修正后,利用量规函数和台站校正值重新计算烈度计震级,结果表明：在震中100 km范围内,烈度计测定震级偏差平均值由校正前的0.145降低至0.033,标准差由0.382降低至0.295,离散度减小;校正后的烈度计震级结果较优,说明本研究获得的量规函数和台站校正值更加适用于川滇地区烈度计台站的震级计算。     

Anomalous changes of CH4/Ar ratio in subsurface gas bubbles as seismogeochemical precursors at Matsuyama,Japan

The results of seismogeochemical monitoring of subsurface gases associated with ground-waters from deep artesian wells in Matsuyama, Japan, are presented. The weekly collections of bubble-gas samples from the two borehole wells and gas chromatographic determinations of their He/Ar, H₂/Ar, N₂/Ar, and CH₄/Ar ratios for the recent nineteen months have revealed that the bubble-gas CH₄/Ar ratios at the two stations are correlated with the seismic activity in this area. Positive anomalies of the CH₄/Ar ratio were accompanied by five earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes and/or relatively small epicentral distances among thirty earthquakes that occurred during the monitoring period. The anomalous increases in the CH₄/Ar ratio had evidently begun prior to the respective earthquakes.The occurrence of the geochemical anomaly appears to depend strongly upon the earthquake magnitude and distance, because the earthquakes that accompanied the anomalies and those that did not can be reasonably distinguished in the plot of magnitude vs. distance. Similar anomalies can be also seen in the variations of He/Ar and N₂/Ar ratios, but their magnitudes are much smaller than those of the CH₄/Ar ratio. These features have been discussed in relation to the possible mechanism of the seismogeochemical phenomena.     

宁夏地区近震震级短周期量规函数的研究与修正

选取宁夏"十五"宽频带数字地震台网2009年1月—2016年12月的1 782个地震事件、7 345条地震记录资料,通过震级残差统计和多元回归分析计算各台站单台震级与台网平均震级的偏差、平均偏差和标准偏差,分析震级偏差的频次分布,修正M_L量规函数,得到宁夏地区的地方性均匀震级量规函数和台基改正量。且采用多元回归分析方法,得到最大地动位移的衰减关系及与之对应的量规函数。结果表明,修正后的震级均方差由原来的0.237 0降低为0.228 9,震级修正最大值为0.51。     

The effects of cyclones on seismicity

This study is concerned with the effects of powerful Pacific cyclones on the seismicity of Kamchatka, Japan, and the Philippines. We used complete seismological catalogs for these regions that span a few tens of years. It was found that the cyclones that originate from the western Pacific generally do not exert a significant triggering effect on the seismicity of these three regions, at least in the short term, during a few weeks. The ground motion generated by cyclones, which might be treated as a trigger, does not have amplitudes above those in the motion due to numerous local earthquakes of moderate magnitudes (∼4–5) and larger teleseismic earthquakes.     

Magnitude reassessment of New Zealand earthquakes

The surface-wave magnitudes of a selection of New Zealand earthquakes have been determined on a consistent basis using the ‘Prague formula’ and station corrections. The earthquakes range in magnitude from about 5 to 7.8, covering the instrumental period 1901–1988. Magnitudes for many of the earlier events had not been properly determined previously; and some significant discrepancies from the traditional magnitudes were found. The use of European station data (160° < D < 175°) is important to New Zealand because of its geographical isolation. These distant data were found to give consistently slightly higher M_s than closer stations, but could be used without bias through the station correction procedure. The relationship between M_s and M_L was found for 31 ‘shallow’ New Zealand events and much of the scatter was explained as a function of depth. Significant differences in M_s/M_L expressions from Europe and California were also found. The limited New Zealand data for M_w and M₀ related well to Californian and global relationships with M_s.     

A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2010 to August 2015 and the reliability of previous forecasts,as well as their applications

We describe results from the ongoing 2008–2010 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We provide a forecast for the next 5 years, September 2010 to August 2015, specified for all segments of the earthquake-generating Kuril-Kamchatka arc zone. For 20 segments we predict the phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. It is shown that the forecast given for the previous 5 years, from September 2005 to September 2010, was found to be accurate. We report the measures that were taken for seismic safety and retrofitting based on these forecasts.     

东北深,浅源地震的相关活动

本文讨论了东北深、浅源地震在时间上、强度上的相关活动特点,认为东北地震是太平洋板块俯冲与亚欧板块挤压作用的结果。东北深震超前于浅源地震活动,可为浅源地震监测预报提供信息。