Predicting water yield from a mountain ash forest catchment using a terrain analysis based catchment model

The structure, capabilities and performance of a distributed parameter hydrologic model are described. The model, called Topog-Yield, permits a transient analysis of unsaturated-saturated flow and evapotranspiration to be performed across complex terrain using a one-dimensional framework. It is applied to a 0.32 km² mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest catchment in the central Victorian highlands, Australia. We compare observed and predicted daily runoff values for the site over a continuous 12 year period (1972–1983) when the catchment vegetation was in an undisturbed climax condition. All input parameter values were based on published or measured data, although some variables were adjusted within the range of known variability to yield a best fit between predicted and observed streamflow in the first year of simulation, 1972. Although the model was ‘calibrated’ for the first year, all variables other than climatic inputs remained fixed for the following 11 years. Modelled and observed daily runoff values compare well throughout the period of simulation, despite a wide range of climatic conditions. When modelled daily runoff values were lumped on a monthly basis, the model was able to explain 87% of the variation in observed monthly streamflows over the 12 year period. Modelled annual runoff was within ±5% of observed values for 6 of the 12 years of record. Annual runoff prediction errors exceeded ±10% of observed values in only 2 of the 12 years. By the end of the 12 year simulation, the model had over-predicted runoff by less than 5%. Input data requirements and model results are discussed in the light of a preliminary sensitivity analysis.     

Water flow path interactions with soil hydraulic properties in till soil at Gårdsjön, Sweden

In 1989, in a hydrological research programme within a deacidification project in the Gårdsjön area in southwest Sweden, flow paths and residence times of soil water and groundwater in microcatchments were examined to support the interpretation of the hydrochemical changes. Saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil water retention were analysed on more than 100 cylinder samples. The catchments have shallow sandy-silty till soil with a mean depth in the main catchment of 43 cm. Porosity of the mineral soil in the main catchment was high and ranged from 38 to 85%. The samples from the B-horizon had generally higher porosity. Porosity and the content of organic matter were correlated. The soil water retention was relatively high at all tensions, likely owing to the high content of organic matter. Dissolved organic substances were most probably transported from the shallow soil on the steep sides of the catchment down to the valley where it precipitated. The high porosities could be a consequence of long-term weathering, provided that the organic substances present have increased the leaching of the weathering products. Measured values of saturated hydraulic conductivity were close to log-normally distributed with a mean for all samples of 3 × 10⁻⁵ m s⁻¹. There was a significant increase in conductivity toward the ground surface with the mean conductivity of the samples in the uppermost 10 cm of the mineral soil of 4 × 10⁻⁵ m s⁻¹, which was about 13 times higher than the conductivity of 3 × 10⁻⁶ m s⁻¹ at 1 m depth. From the relationship between runoff at the catchment outlet and groundwater levels, the conductivity was estimated to be 15–200 times higher in the upper soil layer than in the deeper ones. In one profile, 44–64% of the yearly lateral flow was estimated to occur above 30 cm depth. The conductivity was correlated with the content of drainable water, which indicated the importance of the largest pores for the saturated hydraulic conductivity.     

Mid-latitude Southern Indian Ocean response to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich events

The lack of temporal resolution and accurate chronology of Southern Ocean marine cores has hampered comparison of glacial millennial-scale oscillations between the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ice and other records from both hemispheres. In this study, glacial climate variability is investigated over the last 50 ka using a multi-proxy approach. A precise chrono-stratigraphy was developed on the high-sedimentation rate core MD94-103 (Indian Southern Ocean, 45°35′S 86°31′E, 3560 m water depth) by geomagnetic synchronization between the later core and NAPIS75, and ¹⁴C dates. High-resolution time-series of δ¹⁸O in planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) estimated from the alkenone U^K′₃₇ index and foraminifera assemblages have been generated. Temporal evolution of the two temperature proxy records is notably different during the last glacial period. While foraminifera data indicate a consistent cooling towards the last glacial maximum, anomalous warm glacial alkenone temperatures suggest a strong advection of warm “detrital” alkenones by surface waters of the Agulhas current. Superimposed to this general trend, during Heinrich events, foraminiferal SSTs point to warmer surface waters, while concurrent alkenone SSTs exhibit apparent coolings probably caused by enhanced local alkenone production. By analogy to modern observations, possible influence of ENSO-like conditions on the subantarctic Southern Ocean SSTs is discussed.     

Seasonal soil water storage changes beneath central Amazonian rainforest and pasture

Evaporation and infiltration were compared for tropical rainforest and pasture, near to Manaus, Brazil from October 1990 to February 1992 using measurements of soil water storage over a depth of 2 m. The soil is a clayey oxisol of low water available capacity. In both of the dry seasons studied, the maximum change in soil water storage in the forest was 154 mm and in the pasture it was 131 and 112 mm. Similar behaviour of the soil water reservoir below forest and pasture in the wet season implied that differences in evaporation and drainage were small. In the dry season, soil water storage behaviour in the upper metre of the soil was similar but there were marked differences in the second metre. The pasture took up little water from below 1.5 m but the forest appeared to utilise all of the available water in the 2 m profile in both seasons.

The water balance of the 2 m profile showed that the pasture evaporation rate was equal to that of the forest until storage had decreased 80 mm from the maximum. There was then a decline in pasture evaporation rate to 1.2 mm day⁻¹ as the storage decreased by a further 50 mm. In contrast, the forest uptake rate remained above 3.5 mm day⁻¹ until storage had decreased 140 mm from the maximum (within 15 mm of the extraction limit), before declining abruptly to less than 1.5 mm day⁻¹. There was strong evidence that the forest was able to abstract water from depths greater than 3.6 m.

Spatial variability of soil water storage was significantly greater beneath the pasture than beneath the forest, particularly following rainfall events in the dry season. This was largely the result of redistribution of rainfall as local surface runoff. There was no evidence of redistribution or runoff in the forest.     

Brixenbach research catchment: Quantification of runoff process proportions in a small Alpine catchment depending on soil moisture states and precipitation characteristics

The Brixenbach valley is a small Alpine torrent catchment (9.2 km², 820–1950 m a.s.l., 47.45°, 12.26°) in Tyrol, Austria. Intensive hydrological research in the catchment since more than 12 years, including a hydrogeological survey, pedological and land use mapping, measurements of precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and infiltration as well as the conduction of rainfall simulations, has contributed to understand the hydrological response of the catchment, its subcatchments and specific sites. The paper presents a synthesis of the research in form of runoff process maps for different soil moisture states and precipitation characteristics, derived with the aid of a newly developed Soil-hydrological model. These maps clearly visualize the differing runoff reaction of different subcatchments. The pasture dominated areas produce high surface flow rates during short precipitation events (1 h, 86 mm) with high rainfall intensity, whilst the forested areas often develop shallow subsurface flow. Dry preconditions lead to a slight reduction of surface flow, long rainfall events (24 h, 170 mm) to a dominance of deep subsurface flow and percolation.     

Controls on event runoff coefficients in the eastern Italian Alps

Analyses of event runoff coefficients provide essential insight on catchment response, particularly if a range of catchments and a range of events are compared by a single indicator. In this study we examine the effect of climate, geology, land use, flood types and initial soil moisture conditions on the distribution functions of the event runoff coefficients for a set of 14 mountainous catchments located in the eastern Italian Alps, ranging in size from 7.3 to 608.4 km². Runoff coefficients were computed from hourly precipitation, runoff data and estimates of snowmelt. A total of 535 events were analysed over the period 1989–2004. We classified each basin using a “permeability index” which was inferred from a geologic map and ranged from “low” to “high permeability”. A continuous soil moisture accounting model was applied to each catchment to classify ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ initial soil moisture conditions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of runoff coefficients is highly correlated with mean annual precipitation, with the mean runoff coefficient increasing with mean annual precipitation. Geology, through the ‘permeability index’, is another important control on runoff coefficients for catchments with mean annual precipitation less than 1200 mm. Land use, as indexed by the SCS curve number, influences runoff coefficient distribution to a lesser degree. An analysis of the runoff coefficients by flood type indicates that runoff coefficients increase with event snowmelt. Results show that there exists an intermediate region of subsurface water storage capacity, as indexed by a flow–duration curve-based index, which maximises the impact of initial wetness conditions on the runoff coefficient. This means that the difference between runoff coefficients characterised by wet and dry initial conditions is negligible both for basins with very large storage capacity and for basins with small storage capacity. For basins with intermediate storage capacities, the impact of the initial wetness conditions may be relatively large.     

Coral bleaching on high-latitude marginal reefs at Sodwana Bay,South Africa

Coral bleaching, involving the expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae from the host cells, poses a major threat to coral reefs throughout their distributional range. The role of temperature in coral bleaching has been extensively investigated and is widely accepted. A bleaching event was observed on the marginal high-latitude reefs of South Africa located at Sodwana Bay during the summer months of 2000. This was associated with increased sea temperatures with high seasonal peaks in summer and increased radiation in exceptionally clear water. The bleaching was limited to Two-mile Reef and Nine-mile Reef at Sodwana Bay and affected <12% of the total living cover on Two-mile Reef. Montipora spp., Alveopora spongiosa and Acropora spp. were bleached, as well as some Alcyoniidae (Sinularia dura, Lobophytum depressum, L. patulum). A cyclical increase in sea temperature (with a period of 5–6 years) was recorded during 1998–2000 in addition to the regional temperature increase caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The mean sea temperature increased at a rate of 0.27 °C year⁻¹ from May 1994 to April 2000. High maximum temperatures were measured (>29 °C). The lowest mean monthly and the mean maximum monthly temperatures at which coral bleaching occurred were 27.5 and 28.8 °C, respectively, while the duration for which high temperatures occurred in 2000 was 67 days at 27.5 °C (4 days at 28.8 °C). Increased water clarity and radiation appeared to be a synergistic cause in the coral bleaching encountered at Sodwana Bay.     

A simple rainfall–runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south‐east Spain)

A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall–runoff relationship of the 202 km² Teba river catchment, located in semi‐arid south‐eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976–1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years. The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes. The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum. Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acid-base status of soils in groundwater discharge zones — relation to surface water acidification

Critical load calculations have suggested that groundwater at depth of 2 m in Sweden is very sensitive to acid load. As environmental isotope studies have shown that most of the runoff in streams has passed through the soil, there is a risk in the near future of accelerated acidification of surface waters.

To assess the importance of the last soil horizon of contact before discharge, the upper 0–0.2m of soils in seven discharge zones were analysed for pools of base cations, acidity and base saturation. The sites were about 3–4 m² in size and selected from two catchments exposed to different levels of acid deposition.

The soils in the seven sites had high concentrations of exchangeable base cations and consequently high base saturation. The high correlation (r² = 0.74) between base saturation in the soils of the discharge zones and mean pH of the runoff waters suggested that the discharge zone is important for surface water acidification. The high pool of exchangeable base cations will buffer initially against the acid load. As the cation exchange capacity (meq dm⁻³) and base saturation were lower in the sites from the catchment receiving lower deposition, these streams may be more vulnerable to acidification in the near future. The high concentration of base cations in non-exchangeable fractions may also buffer against acidification as it is likely that some of these pools will become exchangeable with time.     

Characteristic magnetic properties of titanomagnetites in continental igneous rocks

Curie temperatures, hysteresis, alternating field properties and anhysteretic and ordinary susceptibilities have been used to characterize the titanomagnetites in a large collection of continental granites, diorites, syenites, anorthosites, gabbros, diabases and basalts. Low-Curie-point titanomagnetites or titanomaghemites were found only in basalts. In all shallow and deep-seated intrusive rocks, the predominant magnetic phase was nearly-titanium-free titanomagnetite with a Curie point of 520–580°C. Most felsic plutonic rocks owed their magnetic properties to coarse, discrete titanomagnetites with truly multidomain properties. Many mafic plutonic rocks (anorthosites, gabbros, norites) displayed bimodal magnetic properties, strong-field properties being due to the discrete titanomagnetites and weak-field properties being due to fine magnetite inclusions in deuterically altered silicates. The Lowrie-Fuller test and the anhysteretic induction curve were the most diagnostic tests of this bimodal behaviour. Grain-size variation within a single diabase dike or sill had a strong expression in all magnetic properties, except H_R/H_c and the Lowrie-Fuller test. On the other hand, the Lowrie-Fuller test was a sensitive indicator of changes in “effective” grain size in basalts due to the subdivision of grains by ilmenite lamellae.     

Evaluating the spatial distribution of water balance in a small watershed,Pennsylvania

A conceptual water‐balance model was modified from a point application to be distributed for evaluating the spatial distribution of watershed water balance based on daily precipitation, temperature and other hydrological parameters. The model was calibrated by comparing simulated daily variation in soil moisture with field observed data and results of another model that simulates the vertical soil moisture flow by numerically solving Richards' equation. The impacts of soil and land use on the hydrological components of the water balance, such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, runoff and subsurface drainage, were evaluated with the calibrated model in this study. Given the same meteorological conditions and land use, the soil moisture deficit, evapotranspiration and surface runoff increase, and subsurface drainage decreases, as the available water capacity of soil increases. Among various land uses, alfalfa produced high soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration and lower surface runoff and subsurface drainage, whereas soybeans produced an opposite trend. The simulated distribution of various hydrological components shows the combined effect of soil and land use. Simulated hydrological components compare well with observed data. The study demonstrated that the distributed water balance approach is efficient and has advantages over the use of single average value of hydrological variables and the application at a single point in the traditional practice. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal rainfall partitioning under runon and runoff conditions on sandy soil in Niger. On-farm measurements and water balance modelling

In sparsely cropped farming systems in semi-arid tropics, rainfall partitioning can be complex due to various interactions between vertical and horizontal water flows, both in the atmosphere and in the soil. Despite this, quantifying the seasonal rainfall partitioning is essential, in order to identify options for increased yields. Results are presented on water flow components, based on field measurements and water balance modelling, for three years (1994–96) in a farmer's field cultivated with pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) Br.] in the Sahel (Niger). Water balance modelling was carried out for three common infiltration categories: runoff producing surfaces, surfaces receiving inflow of runon water from upstream zones, and a reference surface with zero runoff and runon. Runoff was calculated to 25%–30% of annual rainfall (which ranged from 488 to 596 mm), from crust observations, rainfall, soil wetness data, and infiltration estimates. Inflow of runon was estimated from field observations to 8%–18% of annual rainfall. The parameters in the functions for soil surface and canopy resistances were calibrated with field measurements of soil evaporation, stomatal conductance and leaf area. The model estimates of soil water contents, which were validated against neutron probe measurements, showed a reasonable agreement with observed data, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 0.02 m³ m⁻³ for 0–160 cm soil depth. Estimated productive water flow as plant transpiration was low, amounting to 4%–9% of the available water for the non-fertilised crop and 7%–24% for the fertilised crop. Soil evaporation accounted for 31%–50% of the available water, and showed a low variation for the observed range of leaf area (LAI <1 m² m⁻²). Deep percolation was high, amounting to 200–330 mm for the non-crusted surfaces, which exceeded soil evaporation losses, for 1994–95 with relatively high annual rainfall (517–596 mm). Even a year with lower rainfall (488 mm) and a distinct dry spell during flowering (1996), resulted in an estimated deep percolation of 160 mm for the non-fertilised crop. The crop did not benefit from the additional inflow of runon water, which was partitioned between soil water storage and deep percolation. The only exception to this was the fertilised crop in 1996, where runon somewhat compensated for the limited rainfall and the higher water demand as a result of a larger leaf area than the non-fertilised crop. The effects of rainfall erraticness, resulting in episodic droughts, explain why a crop that uses such a small proportion of the available water, in an environment with substantial deep percolation, still suffers from water scarcity. Application of small levels of phosphorus and nitrogen roughly doubled yields, from 380 to 620 kg ha⁻¹, and plant transpiration, from 33 to 78 mm. Evapotranspirational water use efficiency (WUE_ET) was low, 6500–8300 m³ ton⁻¹ grain for non-fertilised crop, which is an effect of the low on-farm yields and high non-productive water losses. The estimated seasonal rainfall partitioning indicates the possibility of quantifying vertical water flows in on-farm environments in the Sahel, despite the presence of surface overland flow.     

Errors and uncertainty in physically-based rainfall-runoff modelling of catchment change effects

The error in physically-based rainfall-runoff modelling is broken into components, and these components are assigned to three groups: (1) model structure error, associated with the model’s equations; (2) parameter error, associated with the parameter values used in the equations; and (3) run time error, associated with rainfall and other forcing data. The error components all contribute to “integrated” errors, such as the difference between simulated and observed runoff, but their individual contributions cannot usually be isolated because the modelling process is complex and there is a lack of knowledge about the catchment and its hydrological responses. A simple model of the Slapton Wood Catchment is developed within a theoretical framework in which the catchment and its responses are assumed to be known perfectly. This makes it possible to analyse the contributions of the error components when predicting the effects of a physical change in the catchment. The standard approach to predicting change effects involves: (1) running “unchanged” simulations using current parameter sets; (2) making adjustments to the sets to allow for physical change; and (3) running “changed” simulations. Calibration or uncertainty-handling methods such as GLUE are used to obtain the current sets based on forcing and runoff data for a calibration period, by minimising or creating statistical bounds for the “integrated” errors in simulations of runoff. It is shown that current parameter sets derived in this fashion are unreliable for predicting change effects, because of model structure error and its interaction with parameter error, so caution is needed if the standard approach is to be used when making management decisions about change in catchments.     

Spatial variation of effective porosity and its implications for discharge in an upland headwater catchment in Scotland

Spatial and temporal measurements of shallow sub-surface soil physical properties were made within a 1 km² upland catchment. The surface soil layer of the catchment was organic rich (>70% organic matter) with a corresponding total porosity of 81%. Monthly point observations of volumetric water content (θ) were combined with point estimates of total porosity () and the porosity <50 μm (_residual), to define the ratio of water filled pore volume:pore volume in pores <50 μm (=θ/_residual). Values of θ/_residual were compared with discharge to test whether mass flow occurred when θ/_residual>1. A correlation between water content and discharge was found, with discharge increasing rapidly when θ/_residual approached unity. Similar relationships between water content and catchment discharge were identified for soil units adjacent to the stream when θ/_residual approached unity. These data suggest that soil pores >50 μm are of crucial importance in determining catchment discharge. Spatial and temporal variations in soil properties related to moisture content of the soil were also observed. Under dry conditions, a clear division based on aspect was noted, the west-facing side of the catchment being wettest. In wetter months, total porosity and soil water content were significantly affected by soil type and the spatial pattern of soil water content was more variable than in the dryer months. The physical quantification of soil properties in the shallow sub-surface layer proved important in explaining different initial changes in discharge from the catchment in response to a rainfall event.     

A stochastic model describing the impact of daily rainfall depth distribution on the soil water balance

Simplified, vertically-averaged soil moisture models have been widely used to describe and study eco-hydrological processes in water-limited ecosystems. The principal aim of these models is to understand how the main physical and biological processes linking soil, vegetation, and climate impact on the statistical properties of soil moisture. A key component of these models is the stochastic nature of daily rainfall, which is mathematically described as a compound Poisson process with daily rainfall amounts drawn from an exponential distribution. Since measurements show that the exponential distribution is often not the best candidate to fit daily rainfall, we compare the soil moisture probability density functions obtained from a soil water balance model with daily rainfall depths assumed to be distributed as exponential, mixed-exponential, and gamma. This model with different daily rainfall distributions is applied to a catchment in New South Wales, Australia, in order to show that the estimation of the seasonal statistics of soil moisture might be improved when using the distribution that better fits daily rainfall data. This study also shows that the choice of the daily rainfall distributions might considerably affect the estimation of vegetation water-stress, leakage and runoff occurrence, and the whole water balance.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of water and energy fluxes – a case study for a mesoscale catchment in pre‐alpine environment

Water and energy fluxes at and between the land surface, the subsurface and the atmosphere are inextricably linked over all spatio‐temporal scales. Our research focuses on the joint analysis of both water and energy fluxes in a pre‐alpine catchment (55 km²) in southern Germany, which is part of the Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO). We use a novel three‐dimensional, physically based and distributed modelling approach to reproduce both observed streamflow as an integral measure for water fluxes and heat flux and soil temperature measurements at an observation location over a period of 2 years. While heat fluxes are often used for comparison of the simulations of one‐dimensional land surface models, they are rarely used for additional validation of physically based and distributed hydrological modelling approaches. The spatio‐temporal variability of the water and energy balance components and their partitioning for dominant land use types of the study region are investigated. The model shows good performance for simulating daily streamflow (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.75). Albeit only streamflow measurements are used for calibration, the simulations of hourly heat fluxes and soil temperatures at the observation site also show a good performance, particularly during summer. A limitation of the model is the simulation of temperature‐driven heat fluxes during winter, when the soil is covered by snow. An analysis of the simulated spatial fields reveals heat flux patterns that reflect the distribution of the land use and soil types of the catchment. The water and energy partitioning is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and shows clear differences between the selected land use types. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The impact of rural land management changes on soil hydraulic properties and runoff processes: results from experimental plots in upland UK

To develop an evidence base to help predict the impacts of land management change on flood generation, four experimental sites were established on improved grassland used for sheep grazing at the Pontbren catchment in upland Wales, UK. At each site, three plots were established where surface runoff was measured, supplemented by measurements of soil infiltration rates and soil and vegetation physical properties. Following baseline monitoring, treatments were applied to two of the plots: exclusion of sheep (ungrazed) and exclusion of sheep and planting with native broadleaf tree species (tree planted), with the third plot acting as a control (grazed pasture). Due to a particularly dry summer that occurred pre‐treatment, the soil hydrological responses were initially impacted by the effects of the climate on soil structure. Nevertheless, treatments did have a clear influence on soil hydrological response. On average, post‐treatment runoff volumes were reduced by 48% and 78% in ungrazed and tree‐planted plots relative to the control, although all results varied greatly over the sites. Five years following treatment application, near‐surface soil bulk density was reduced and median soil infiltration rates were 67 times greater in plots planted with trees compared to grazed pasture. The results illustrate the potential use of upland land management for ameliorating local‐scale flood generation but emphasise the need for long‐term monitoring to more clearly separate the effects of land management from those of climatic variability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological processes of a closed catchment‐lake system in a semi‐arid Mediterranean environment

Data collected in 4 years of field observations were used in conjunction with continuous simulation models to study, at the small‐basin scale, the water balance of a closed catchment‐lake system in a semi‐arid Mediterranean environment. The open water evaporation was computed with the Penman equation, using the data set collected in the middle of the lake. The surface runoff was partly measured at the main tributary and partly simulated using a distributed, catchment, hydrological model, calibrated with the observed discharge. The simplified structure of the developed modelling mainly concerns soil moisture dynamics and bedrock hydraulics, whereas the flow components are physically based. The calibration produced high efficiency coefficients and showed that surface runoff is greatly affected by soil water percolation into fractured bedrock. The bedrock reduces the storm‐flow peaks and the interflow and has important multi‐year effects on the annual runoff coefficients. The net subsurface outflow from the lake was calculated as the residual of the lake water balance. It was almost constant in the dry seasons and increased in the wet seasons, because of the moistening of the unsaturated soil. During the years of observation, rainfall 30% higher than average caused abundant runoff and a continuous rise in the lake water levels. The analysis allows to predict that, in years with lower than the average rainfall, runoff will be drastically reduced and will not be able to compensate for negative balance between precipitation and lake evaporation. Such highly unsteady situations, with great fluctuations in lake levels, are typical of closed catchment‐lake systems in the semi‐arid Mediterranean environment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.