Methods to Estimate Source Zone Depletion of Fuel Releases by Groundwater Flow

We compare two methods for estimating the natural source zone depletion (NSZD) rate at fuel release sites that occurs by groundwater flow through the source zone due to dissolution and transport of biodegradation products. Dissolution is addressed identically in both methods. The “mass budget method”, previously proposed and applied by others, estimates the petroleum hydrocarbon biodegradation rate based on dissolved electron acceptor delivery and dissolved biodegradation product removal by groundwater flow. The mass budget method relies on assumed stoichiometry for the degradation reactions and differences in concentrations of dissolved species (oxygen, nitrate, sulfate, reduced iron, reduced manganese, nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon, methane) at monitoring locations upgradient and downgradient of the source zone. We illustrate a refinement to account for degradation reactions associated with loss of reduced iron from solution. The “carbon budget method,” a simplification of approaches applied by others, addresses carbon‐containing species in solution or lost from solution (precipitated) and does not require assumptions about stoichiometry or information about electron acceptors. We apply both methods to a fuel release site with unusually detailed monitoring data and discuss applicability to more typical and less thoroughly monitored sites. The methods, as would typically be applied, yield similar results but have different constraints and uncertainties. Overall, we conclude that the carbon budget method has greater practical utility as it is simpler, requires fewer assumptions, accounts for most iron‐reducing reactions, and does not include CO₂ that escapes from the saturated to the unsaturated zone.     

A New Capture Fraction Method to Map How Pumpage Affects Surface Water Flow

All groundwater pumped is balanced by removal of water somewhere, initially from storage in the aquifer and later from capture in the form of increase in recharge and decrease in discharge. Capture that results in a loss of water in streams, rivers, and wetlands now is a concern in many parts of the United States. Hydrologists commonly use analytical and numerical approaches to study temporal variations in sources of water to wells for select points of interest. Much can be learned about coupled surface/groundwater systems, however, by looking at the spatial distribution of theoretical capture for select times of interest. Development of maps of capture requires (1) a reasonably well-constructed transient or steady state model of an aquifer with head-dependent flow boundaries representing surface water features or evapotranspiration and (2) an automated procedure to run the model repeatedly and extract results, each time with a well in a different location. This paper presents new methods for simulating and mapping capture using three-dimensional groundwater flow models and presents examples from Arizona, Oregon, and Michigan.     

Assessing Groundwater Depletion and Dynamics Using GRACE and InSAR: Potential and Limitations

In the last decade, remote sensing of the temporal variation of ground level and gravity has improved our understanding of groundwater dynamics and storage. Mass changes are measured by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, whereas ground deformation is measured by processing synthetic aperture radar satellites data using the InSAR (Interferometry of Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques. Both methods are complementary and offer different sensitivities to aquifer system processes. GRACE is sensitive to mass changes over large spatial scales (more than 100,000 km²). As such, it fails in providing groundwater storage change estimates at local or regional scales relevant to most aquifer systems, and at which most groundwater management schemes are applied. However, InSAR measures ground displacement due to aquifer response to fluid‐pressure changes. InSAR applications to groundwater depletion assessments are limited to aquifer systems susceptible to measurable deformation. Furthermore, the inversion of InSAR‐derived displacement maps into volume of depleted groundwater storage (both reversible and largely irreversible) is confounded by vertical and horizontal variability of sediment compressibility. During the last decade, both techniques have shown increasing interest in the scientific community to complement available in situ observations where they are insufficient. In this review, we present the theoretical and conceptual bases of each method, and present idealized scenarios to highlight the potential benefits and challenges of combining these techniques to remotely assess groundwater storage changes and other aspects of the dynamics of aquifer systems.     

Use of Potential Foreshocks to Estimate the Short-term Probability of Large Earthquakes, Tohoku, Japan

This study seeks to construct a hazard function for earthquake probabilities based on potential foreshocks. Earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 and larger that occurred between 1976 and 2000 in an offshore area of the Tohoku region of northeast Japan were selected as events for estimating probabilities. Later occurrences of multiple events and aftershocks were omitted from targets. As a result, a total of 14 earthquakes were employed in the assessment of models. The study volume spans 300 km (East-West) × 660 km (North-South) × 60 km in depth. The probability of a target earthquake occurring at a certain point in time-space depends on the number of small earthquakes that occurred per unit volume in that vicinity. In this study, we assume that the hazard function increases geometrically with the number of potential foreshocks within a constrained space-time window. The parameters for defining potential foreshocks are magnitude, spatial extent and lead time to the point of assessment. The time parameter is studied in ranges of 1 to 5 days (1-day steps), and spatial parameters in 20 to 100 km (20-km steps). The model parameters of the hazard function are determined by the maximum likelihood method. The most effective hazard function examined was the following case: When an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 to 6.5 occurs, the hazard for a large event is increased significantly for one day within a 20 km radius surrounding the earthquake. If two or more such earthquakes are observed, the model expects a 20,000 times greater probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater than in the absence of such events.     

Extending the MODPATH Algorithm to Rectangular Unstructured Grids

The recent release of MODFLOW‐USG, which allows model grids to have irregular, unstructured connections, requires a modification of the particle‐tracking algorithm used by MODPATH. This paper describes a modification of the semi‐analytical particle‐tracking algorithm used by MODPATH that allows it to be extended to rectangular‐based unstructured grids by dividing grid cells with multi‐cell face connections into sub‐cells. The new method will be incorporated in the next version of MODPATH which is currently under development.     

Streamflow response to the rapid retreat of a lake‐calving glacier

There has been increasing attention over the last decade to the potential effects of glacier retreat on downstream discharge and aquatic habitat. This study focused on streamflow variability downstream of Bridge Glacier in the southern Coast Mountains of BC between 1979 and 2014, prior to and during a period in which the glacier experienced enhanced calving and rapid retreat across a lake‐filled basin. Here we combined empirical trend detection and a conceptual‐parametric hydrological model to address the following hypotheses: (1) streamflow trends in late summer and early autumn should reflect the opposing influences of climatic warming (which would tend to increase unit‐area meltwater production) and the reduction in glacier area (which would tend to reduce the total volume of meltwater generated), and (2) winter streamflow should increase because of displacement of lake water as ice flows past the grounding line and calves into the lake basin. In relation to the first hypothesis, we found no significant trends in monthly discharge during summer. However, applying regression analysis to account for air temperature and precipitation variations, weak but statistically significant negative trends were detected for August and melt season discharge. The HBV‐EC model was applied using time‐varying glacier cover, as derived from Landsat imagery. Relative to simulations based on constant glacier extent, model results indicated that glacier recession caused a decline in mean monthly streamflow of 9% in August and 11% in September. These declines in late‐summer streamflow are consistent with the results from our empirical analysis. The second hypothesis is supported by the finding of positive trends for December, January, and February discharge. Despite the modelled declines in late‐summer mean monthly streamflow, recorded discharge data exhibited neither positive nor negative trends during the melt season, suggesting that Bridge Glacier may currently be at or close to the point of peak water. Further analysis of the impact of lake‐terminating glaciers on downstream discharge is needed to refine the peak water model. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow simulation and skewness preservation based on the bootstrapped stochastic models

The stochastic model has been widely used for the simulation study. However, there was a difficulty in the reproduction of the skewness of observed series and so the stochastic model for the skewness preservation was appeared. While the skewness in the residuals of the stochastic model has been considered for the skewness preservation this study uses a random resampling technique of residuals from the stochastic models for the simulation study and for the investigation of the skewness coefficient. The main advantage of this resampling scheme, called the bootstrap method is that it does not rely on the assumption of population distribution and this study uses the combined model of the stochastic and bootstrapped models. The stochastic and bootstrapped stochastic (or combined) models are used for the investigations of skewness preservation and of the reproduction of probability density function between the simulated series. The models are applied to the annual and monthly streamflows of Yongdam site in Korea and Yakima river, Washington, USA for the streamflow simulation study then the statistics and probability density functions for the observed and simulated streamflows are compared. As the results the bootstrapped stochastic model reproduces the skewness and probability density function much better than the stochastic model. This evidences suggest that the bootstrapped stochastic model might be more appropriate than the stochastic model for the preservation of skewness and for simulation purposes of the series.     

Depletion Mapping and Constrained Optimization to Support Managing Groundwater Extraction

Groundwater models often serve as management tools to evaluate competing water uses including ecosystems, irrigated agriculture, industry, municipal supply, and others. Depletion potential mapping—showing the model‐calculated potential impacts that wells have on stream baseflow—can form the basis for multiple potential management approaches in an oversubscribed basin. Specific management approaches can include scenarios proposed by stakeholders, systematic changes in well pumping based on depletion potential, and formal constrained optimization, which can be used to quantify the tradeoff between water use and stream baseflow. Variables such as the maximum amount of reduction allowed in each well and various groupings of wells using, for example, K‐means clustering considering spatial proximity and depletion potential are considered. These approaches provide a potential starting point and guidance for resource managers and stakeholders to make decisions about groundwater management in a basin, spreading responsibility in different ways. We illustrate these approaches in the Little Plover River basin in central Wisconsin, United States—home to a rich agricultural tradition, with farmland and urban areas both in close proximity to a groundwater‐dependent trout stream. Groundwater withdrawals have reduced baseflow supplying the Little Plover River below a legally established minimum. The techniques in this work were developed in response to engaged stakeholders with various interests and goals for the basin. They sought to develop a collaborative management plan at a watershed scale that restores the flow rate in the river in a manner that incorporates principles of shared governance and results in effective and minimally disruptive changes in groundwater extraction practices.     

Flow dynamics at the continental scale: Streamflow correlation and hydrological similarity

Streamflow variability in space and time critically affects anthropic water uses and ecosystem services. Unfortunately, spatiotemporal patterns of flow regimes are often unknown, as discharge measurements are usually recorded at a limited number of hydrometric stations unevenly distributed along river networks. Advances in understanding the physical processes that control the spatial patterns of river flows are therefore necessary to predict water availability at ungauged locations or to extrapolate pointwise streamflow observations. This work explores the use of the spatial correlation of river flows as a metric to quantify the similarity between hydrological responses of two catchments. Following a stochastic framework, 340,000 cross‐correlations between pairs of daily streamflows time series are predicted at a seasonal timescale across the contiguous United States using 413 catchments of the MOPEX dataset. Model predictions of streamflow correlation obtained in absence of run‐off information are successfully used to identify catchment outlets sharing similar discharge dynamics and flow regimes across a broad range of geomorphoclimatic conditions, without relying on calibration. The selection of reference streamgauges based on predicted streamflow correlation generally outperforms the selection based on spatial proximity, especially as the density of available gauged sections decreases. Interestingly, correlated outlets share a broad spectrum of hydrological signatures (mean discharge, flow variability, and recession properties), suggesting that catchments forced by analogous frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events might exhibit common geomorphoecological traits leading to similar hydrological responses. The proposed framework provides a physical basis to assist the regionalization of flow dynamics and to interpret the spatial variability of flow regimes along stream networks.     

Streamflow and suspended sediment yield following the 2000 Bobcat fire,Colorado

Postfire runoff and erosion are a concern, and more data are needed on the effects of wildfire at the watershed‐scale, especially in the Colorado Front Range. The goal of this study was to characterize and compare the streamflow and suspended sediment yield response of two watersheds (Bobcat Gulch and Jug Gulch) after the 2000 Bobcat fire. Bobcat Gulch had several erosion control treatments applied after the fire, including aerial seeding, contour log felling, mulching, and straw wattles. Jug Gulch was partially seeded. Study objectives were to: (1) measure precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yields; (2) assess the effect of rainfall intensity on peak discharges, storm runoff, and sediment yields; (3) evaluate short‐term hydrologic recovery. Two months after the fire, a storm with a maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I₃₀ of 42 mm h^?1 generated a peak discharge of 3900 l s^?1 km^?2 in Bobcat Gulch. The same storm produced less than 5 l s^?1 km^?2 in Jug Gulch, due to less rainfall and the low watershed response. In the second summer, storms with, I₃₀ of 23 mm h^?1 and 32 mm h^?1 generated peak discharges of 1100 l s^?1 km^?2 and 1700 l s^?1 km^?2 in the treated and untreated watersheds respectively. Maximum water yield efficiencies were 10% and 17% respectively, but 18 of the 23 storms returned ≤2% of the rainfall as runoff, effectively obscuring interpretation of the erosion control treatments. I₃₀ explained 86% of the variability in peak discharges, 74% of the variability in storm runoff, and >80% of the variability in sediment yields. Maximum single‐storm sediment yields in the second summer were 370 kg ha^?1 in the treated watershed and 950 kg ha^?1 in the untreated watershed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using the Stabilization Plateau to Estimate Optimum Well Purge Volume

This study concerns the problem of pump position in landfill monitoring wells and the correct time to stop purging and start sampling. Literature purge volume determination methods fail to use sufficient analyte values for comprehensive study of the stabilization plateau. From field studies it is recommended that prior to commencement of a sampling program a purge study be undertaken to determine pump position and optimum purge volume by conducting (1) a preliminary vertical electrical conductivity (EC) profile: (2) vertical profiling of formation water EC values by low-flow pumping at 0.5 m vertical intervals-while also noting EC vertical profile values to assure minimal effect on the water column water quality; and (3) a low-flow, purge EC stabilization test with the pump positioned at highest formation water EC values. Sufficient EC values are needed to fulfill Conover's (1980) nonparametric tolerance interval sample size criteria, and to graphically delineate the stabilization plateau. This information will allow you to choose an optimum purge volume that allows a margin for error.     

Discriminating Between Different Streamflow Regimes by Using the Fisher-Shan Method: An Application to the Colombia Rivers

The Fisher-Shannon (FS) information plane, defined by the Fisher information measure (FIM) and the Shannon entropy power (N_X), was robustly used to investigate the complex dynamics of eight monthly streamflow time series in Colombia. In the FS plane the streamflow series seem to aggregate into two different clusters corresponding to two different climatological regimes in Colombia. Our findings suggest the use of the statistical quantity defined by the FS information plane as a tool to discriminate among different hydrological regimes.     

地震区划图和工程应用

将1990年新编地震区划图与过去的区划图进行比较并对新编地震区划图的结果进行了分析,叙述了1990年编制的地震区划图的特点,介绍了编制新地震区划图的原则及其在工程中的应用.     

新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色

简要介绍了新地震区划图潜在震源区划分方案的形成过程,重点分析了潜在震源区三级划分、东西部地区潜在震源区划分技术途径的差异、不同级别活动块体边界带对高震级潜在震源区划分的控制作用、发震构造模型及其在潜在震源区划分中的应用等主要技术特色.共划分出29个地震带、77个地震构造区和1199个潜在震源区.与中国地震动参数区划图(2001)中综合方案相比,东西部地区潜在震源区的个数都有较大的增加,其中东部地区体现在震级上限6.0、6.5和7.0级的中强潜在震源区个数的明显增加,与划分工作中加强了该地区中强地震发震构造的判识研究相关;而西部地区体现在震级上限7.5和8.0级的高震级潜在震源区个数的大幅度增加,与划分工作中注重了活动块体边界带高震级潜在震源区划分,以及强调应用发震构造模型指导潜在震源区划分的技术特色相协调.     

Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the source region of the Yellow River,China

Much of the discussion on hydrological trends and variability in the source region of the Yellow River centres on the mean values of the mainstream flows. Changes in hydrological extremes in the mainstream as well as in the tributary flows are largely unexplored. Although decreasing water availability has been noted, the nature of those changes is less explored. This article investigates trends and variability in the hydrological regimes (both mean values and extreme events) and their links with the local climate in the source region of the Yellow River over the last 50 years (1959–2008). This large catchment is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstraction and impoundments, enabling the characterization of widely natural, climate‐driven trends. A total of 27 hydrological variables were used as indicators for the analysis. Streamflow records from six major headwater catchments and climatic data from seven stations were studied. The trend results vary considerably from one river basin to another, and become more accentuated with longer time period. Overall, the source region of the Yellow River is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability. Noteworthy are strong decreasing trends in the winter (dry season) monthly flows of January to March and September as well as in annual mean flow, annual 1‐, 3‐, 7‐, 30‐ and 90‐day maxima and minima flows for Maqu and Tangnag catchments over the period 1959–2008. The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow variation due to glacier melting and climate change in upstream Heihe River Basin,Northwest China

Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of incomplete hydrological models, irregular topography, immeasurable snowpack or glacier, and low data resolution. In this study, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model (SWAT-Soil Water Assessment Tool) coupled with a glacier melting algorithm was applied to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic and glacial changes in the upstream Heihe River Basin. The glacier mass balance was calculated at daily time-step using a distributed temperature-index melting and accumulation algorithm embedded in the SWAT model. Specifically, the model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data measured at Yingluoxia Hydrological Station and decadal ice volume changes derived from survey maps and remote sensing images between 1960 and 2010. This study highlights the effects of glacier melting on streamflow and their future changes in the mountainous watersheds. We simulate the contribution of glacier melting to streamflow change under different scenarios of climate changes in terms of temperature and precipitation dynamics. The rising temperature positively contributed to streamflow due to the increase of snowmelt and glacier melting. The rising precipitation directly contributes to streamflow and it contributed more to streamflow than the rising temperature. The results show that glacial meltwater has contributed about 3.25 billion m³ to streamflow during 1960–2010. However, the depth of runoff within the watershed increased by about 2.3 mm due to the release of water from glacial storage to supply the intensified evapotranspiration and infiltration. The simulation results indicate that the glacier made about 8.9% contribution to streamflow in 2010. The research approach used in this study is feasible to estimate the glacial contribution to streamflow in other similar mountainous watersheds elsewhere.