Mapped Predictions of Manganese and Arsenic in an Alluvial Aquifer Using Boosted Regression Trees

Manganese (Mn) concentrations and the probability of arsenic (As) exceeding the drinking-water standard of 10 μg/L were predicted in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) using boosted regression trees (BRT). BRT, a type of ensemble-tree machine-learning model, were created using predictor variables that affect Mn and As distribution in groundwater. These variables included iron (Fe) concentrations and specific conductance predicted from previously developed BRT models, groundwater flux and age estimates from MODFLOW, and hydrologic characteristics. The models also included results from the first airborne geophysical survey conducted in the United States to target an entire aquifer system. Predictions of high Mn and As occurred where Fe was high. Predicted high Mn concentrations were correlated with fraction of young groundwater (less than 65 years) computed from MODFLOW results. High probabilities of As exceedance were predicted where groundwater was relatively old and airborne electromagnetic resistivity was high, typically proximal to streams. Two-variable partial-dependence plots and sensitivity analysis were used to provide insight into the factors controlling Mn and As distribution in groundwater. The maps of predicted Mn concentrations and As exceedance probabilities can be used to identify areas where these constituents may be high, and that could be targeted for further study. This paper shows that incorporation of a selected set of process-informed data, such as MODFLOW results and airborne geophysics, into a machine-learning model improves model interpretability. Incorporation of process-rich information into machine-learning models will likely be useful for addressing a wide range of problems of interest to groundwater hydrologists.     

Performance Assessments of a Novel Well Design for Reducing Exposure to Bedrock‐Derived Arsenic

Arsenic in groundwater is a serious problem in New England, particularly for domestic well owners drawing water from bedrock aquifers. The overlying glacial aquifer generally has waters with low arsenic concentrations but is less used because of frequent loss of well water during dry periods and the vulnerability to surface‐sourced bacterial contamination. An alternative, novel design for shallow wells in glacial aquifers is intended to draw water primarily from unconsolidated glacial deposits, while being resistant to drought conditions and surface contamination. Its use could greatly reduce exposure to arsenic through drinking water for domestic use. Hypothetical numerical models were used to investigate the potential hydraulic performance of the new well design in reducing arsenic exposure. The aquifer system was divided into two parts, an upper section representing the glacial sediments and a lower section representing the bedrock. The location of the well, recharge conditions, and hydraulic properties were systematically varied in a series of simulations and the potential for arsenic contamination was quantified by analyzing groundwater flow paths to the well. The greatest risk of arsenic contamination occurred when the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock aquifer was high, or where there was upward flow from the bedrock aquifer because of the position of the well in the flow system.     

Modeling a Large-Scale Historic Aquifer Test: Insight into the Hydrogeology of a Regional Fault Zone

Faults can act as flow barriers or conduits to groundwater flow by introducing heterogeneity in permeability. We examine the hydrogeology of the Sandwich Fault Zone, a 137 km long zone of high-angle faults in northern Illinois, using a large-scale historic aquifer test. The fault zone is poorly understood at depth due to the majority of the faults being buried by glacial deposits and its near-vertical orientation which limits geologic sampling across faults. The aquifer test—perhaps one of the largest in terms of overall withdrawal in North American history—was conducted in 1942 at a facility adjacent to the fault zone. More than 34,000 m³/day was pumped for 37 days from nine multiaquifer wells open to the stratified Cambrian-Ordovician sandstone aquifer system. We modeled the aquifer test using a transient MODFLOW-USG model and simulated pumping wells with the CLN package. We tested numerous fault core/damage zone conceptualizations and calibrated to drawdown values recorded at production and observation wells. Our analysis indicates that the fault zone is a low-permeability feature that inhibits lateral movement of groundwater and that there is at least an order of magnitude decrease in horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the fault core compared to the undeformed sandstone. Large head declines have occurred north of the fault zone (over 300 m since predevelopment conditions) and modifying fault zone parameters significantly affects calibration to regional drawdown on a decadal scale. The flow-barrier behavior of the fault zone has important implications for future groundwater availability in this highly stressed region.     

Hydrochemical and stable isotope evidence for the extent and nature of the effective Chalk aquifer of north Norfolk, UK

In eastern England the Chalk aquifer is covered by extensive Pleistocene deposits which influence the hydraulic conditions and hydrochemical nature of the underlying aquifer. In this study, the results of geophysical borehole logging of groundwater temperature and electrical conductivity and depth sampling for major ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) are interpreted to reveal the extent and nature of the effective Chalk aquifer of north Norfolk. It is found that the Chalk aquifer can be divided into an upper region of fresh groundwater, with a Cl concentration of typically less than 100 mg l⁻¹, and a lower region of increasingly saline water. The transition between the two regions is approximately 50 m below sea-level, and results in an effective aquifer thickness of 50–60 m in the west of the area, but less than 25 m where the Eocene London Clay boundary is met in the east of the area. Hydrochemical variations in the effective aquifer are related to different hydraulic conditions developed in the Chalk. Where the Chalk is confined by low-permeability Chalky Boulder Clay, isotopically depleted groundwater (δ¹⁸O less than −7.5‰) is present, in contrast to those areas of unconfined Chalk where glacial deposits are thin or absent (δ¹⁸O about −7.0‰). The isotopically depleted groundwater is evidence for groundwater recharge during the late Pleistocene under conditions when mean surface air temperatures are estimated to have been 4.5°C cooler than at the present day, and suggests long groundwater residence times in the confined aquifer. Elevated molar Mg:Ca ratios of more than 0.2 resulting from progressive rock-water interaction in the confined aquifer also indicate long residence times. A conceptual hydrochemical model for the present situation proposes that isotopically depleted groundwater, occupying areas where confined groundwater dates from the late Pleistocene, is being slowly modified by both diffusion and downward infiltration of modem meteoric water and diffusive mixing from below with an old saline water body.     

Using chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and tritium (3H) to estimate groundwater age and flow velocity in Hohhot Basin,China

The concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC‐11, CFC‐12 and CFC‐113) and tritium (³H) content in groundwater were used to date groundwater age, delineate groundwater flow systems and estimate flow velocity in the Hohhot basin. The estimated young groundwater age is fallen in the bracket of 21 ~ 50 a and indicates the presence of two different age profiles and flow systems in the shallow groundwater system. Older age waters occur under the topographically low areas, where the aquifer is double‐layer aquifer system consisting of shallow unconfined‐semi‐confined aquifer and deep confined aquifer. This reflects long flow paths associated with regional flow. Groundwater (range from 21 to 34 years) in the north piedmont and east hilly areas, where the aquifer is a single‐layer aquifer consisting of alluvial fans, are typically younger than those in the low areas. The combination of CFCs dating with hydrogeological information indicates that both local and regional flow systems are present at the basin. The regional groundwater flow mainly flows from the north and east to the southwest, the local groundwater flow system occurs nearby the Hohhot city. The mean regional groundwater flow velocity of the shallow groundwater is estimated about 0.73 km/a. These findings can aid in refining hydrogeological conceptual model of the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arsenic Geochemistry and Hydrostratigraphy in Midwestern U.S. Glacial Deposits

Arsenic concentrations exceeding the U.S. EPA's 10 μg/L standard are common in glacial aquifers in the midwestern United States. Previous studies have indicated that arsenic occurs naturally in these aquifers in association with metal-(hydr)oxides and is released to groundwater under reducing conditions generated by microbial oxidation of organic matter. Despite this delineation of the arsenic source and mechanism of arsenic mobilization, identification of arsenic-impacted aquifers is hindered by the heterogeneous and discontinuous nature of glacial sediments. In much of the Midwest, the hydrostratigraphy of glacial deposits is not sufficiently characterized to predict where elevated arsenic concentrations are likely to occur. This case study from southeast Wisconsin presents a detailed characterization of local stratigraphy, hydrostratigraphy, and geochemistry of the Pleistocene glacial deposits and underlying Silurian dolomite. Analyses of a single core, water chemistry data, and well construction reports enabled identification of two aquifers separated by an organic-rich aquitard. The upper, unconfined aquifer provides potable water, whereas arsenic generally exceeds 10 μg/L in the deeper aquifer. Although coring and detailed hydrostratigraphic characterization are often considered impractical, our results demonstrate that a single core improved interpretation of the complex lithology and hydrostratigraphy. This detailed characterization of hydrostratigraphy facilitated development of well construction guidelines and lays the ground work for further studies of the complex interactions among aquifer sediments, hydrogeology, water chemistry, and microbiology that lead to elevated arsenic in groundwater.     

Modelling of colloidal particle and heavy metal transfer behaviours during seawater intrusion and refreshing processes

The proper management of coastal aquifers commonly requires an understanding of regional mass flow and complete seawater–freshwater circulation. In this study, time series observations of seawater intrusion and refreshing were conducted using a column experiment based on natural flow conditions in coastal groundwater and a sampled medium from a coastal sandy aquifer without chemical treatment. Ranges of hydrodynamic and hydrochemical variables were tested and analysed. The results showed that the zeta potential of suspended colloids in aqueous solution in an aquifer polluted with 0.5 g/kg of heavy metals exhibited an isoelectric point for pH values ranging from 5.70 to 6.07 when freshwater or seawater completely occupied the aquifer pores, which is representative of natural hydrochemical conditions. In this scenario, a high background concentration of heavy metals induced colloidal immobilization. Otherwise, seawater–freshwater circulation enabled colloid mobilization due to ionic strength and pH fluctuations. The migration of multiple heavy metals occurred at a characteristic time of approximately 1 pore volume after each intrusion stage began and when the peak rate of colloid release was reached. At these times, the colloid behaviour determined the quantity and pathway of heavy metal transport. On the basis of the influences of seawater and freshwater interactions, the quantity of mobilized particles generally decreased and was uniformly distributed in each fraction due to particle loss and decreased porous connectivity. We speculate that the decrease in the total surface area of the migratory colloids may cause colloid‐associated heavy metal transport to decrease. The experimental results provide a useful basis for testing coastal groundwater flow and mass transport models because these phenomena require full characterization to precisely evaluate the associated fluxes from the field scale to the microscopic dimension.     

Tracing groundwater flow in the Borden aquifer using krypton-85

Krypton-85 was measured in air, soil gas, and ground water at the Borden aquifer in Ontario in October 1989. The measured specific activities in air and soil gas were 52.0 ± 2.0 and 53.6 ± 1.8 disintegrations per min (dpm) cm⁻³ krypton. These measurements are in excellent agreement with the global atmospheric trend and demonstrate that krypton-85 enters the water table at the Borden site without a lag in the soil gas reservoir. The krypton-85 specific activity in five groundwater samples ranged from 44.9 to 9.5 dpm cm⁻³ corresponding to groundwater ages of 2–17 years with a monotonic decrease in specific activity (increase in age) along the groundwater flow path. Travel times calculated from a two-dimensional steady-state model of groundwater flow agree well with the krypton-85 ages in the main recharge region of the aquifer where flow is predominantly vertical, but were 30–40% older than the krypton-85 age downstream of the main recharge area where the flow is mainly horizontal. The effect of dispersion on the distribution of krypton-85 was determined by modelling the transport of krypton-85 in the Borden aquifer with a two-dimensional time-dependent advection dispersion model using the steady-state flow field. Agreement between model specific activity and observed specific activity was excellent for samples in the main recharge region, but the model specific activities were 30–50% lower than observed specific activities in the region of horizontal flow. The differences in travel times and krypton-85 ages and in model krypton-85 and observed krypton-85 specific activities are considered to be small given the heterogeneities that exist in the hydraulic conductivity and aquifer geometry and hence in the groundwater flow field. The model simulated krypton-85 distribution was not sensitive to changes in longitudinal dispersivity and was only weakly sensitive to changes in transverse dispersivity. The geochemical inertness, well-defined source function, and insensitivity to dispersion of krypton-85 allow estimates of groundwater age to be made in a straightforward manner and measurement of krypton-85 can significantly enhance the characterization of groundwater flow in many shallow subsurface systems.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Meltwater discharge through the subglacial bed and its land‐forming consequences from numerical experiments in the Polish lowland during the last glaciation

Numerical experiments suggest that the last glaciation severely affected the upper lithosphere groundwater system in NW Poland: primarily its flow pattern, velocities and fluxes. We have simulated subglacial groundwater flow in two and three spatial dimensions using finite difference codes for steady‐state and transient conditions. The results show how profoundly the ice sheet modifies groundwater pressure heads beneath and some distance beyond the ice margin. All model runs show water discharge at the ice forefield driven by ice‐sheet‐thickness‐modulated, down‐ice‐decreasing hydraulic heads. In relation to non‐glacial times, the transient 3D model shows significant changes in the groundwater flow directions in a regionally extensive aquifer ca. 90 m below the ice–bed interface and up to 40 km in front of the glacier. Comparison with empirical data suggests that, depending on the model run, only between 5 and 24% of the meltwater formed at the ice sole drained through the bed as groundwater. This is consistent with field observations documenting abundant occurrence of tunnel valleys, indicating that the remaining portion of basal meltwater was evacuated through a channelized subglacial drainage system. Groundwater flow simulation suggests that in areas of very low hydraulic conductivity and adverse subglacial slopes water ponding at the ice sole was likely. In these areas the relief shows distinct palaeo‐ice lobes, indicating fast ice flow, possibly triggered by the undrained water at the ice–bed interface. Owing to the abundance of low‐permeability strata in the bed, the simulated groundwater flow depth is less than ca. 200 m. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of Groundwater Quality Trends Resulting from Anthropogenic Changes in Southeast Florida

The effects of surface water flow system changes caused by constructing water‐conservation areas and canals in southeast Florida on groundwater quality under the Atlantic Coastal Ridge was investigated with numerical modeling. Water quality data were used to delineate a zone of groundwater with low total dissolved solids (TDS) within the Biscayne aquifer under the ridge. The delineated zone has the following characteristics. Its location generally coincides with an area where the Biscayne aquifer has high transmissivities, corresponds to a high recharge area of the ridge, and underlies a part of the groundwater mound formed under the ridge prior to completion of the canals. This low TDS groundwater appears to be the result of pre‐development conditions rather than seepage from the canals constructed after the 1950s. Numerical simulation results indicate that the time for low TDS groundwater under the ridge to reach equilibrium with high TDS surface water in the water‐conservation areas and Everglades National Park are approximately 70 and 60 years, respectively. The high TDS groundwater would be restricted to the water‐conservation areas and the park due to its slow eastward movement caused by small hydraulic gradients in Rocky Glades and its mixing with the low TDS groundwater under the high‐recharge area of the ridge. The flow or physical boundary conditions such as high recharge rates or low hydraulic conductivity layers may affect how the spatial distribution of groundwater quality in an aquifer will change when a groundwater flow system reaches equilibrium with an associated surface water flow system.     

Identifying the flow pattern and natural recharge at a strategic groundwater resource in the Dornogobi Province,Mongolia

The strategic project of economic development in the Dornogobi Province in Mongolia is dependent on water supply. Thus a comprehensive hydrogeological characterization was focused on the Upper Cretaceous multi-aquifer system north of Sainshand city. A conceptual model was developed to discover the groundwater flow pattern essential to correct the setting of the numerical model of groundwater flow created using MODFLOW to assess the natural recharge of the aquifer. The conceptualization was based on geological and hydrogeological characterization. However, the evaluation of hydrochemistry proved to be the key factor revealing the principal feature of the groundwater flow pattern, which is the presence of preferential flow zones. These zones allow for intensive transfer of relatively fresh Na(Mg,Ca)?HCO₃-dominated groundwater into discharge areas, where it leaks into the Quaternary aquifer. The numerical model suggested an enormous natural recharge of 22 100 m³/d, originating in 64% of the preferential flow zones.     

Combination of CFCs and stable isotopes to characterize the mechanism of groundwater–surface water interactions in a headwater basin of the North China Plain

Mountainous areas are characterized by steep slopes and rocky landforms, with hydrological conditions varying rapidly from upstream to downstream, creating variable interactions between groundwater and surface water. In this study, mechanisms of groundwater–surface water interactions within a headwater catchment of the North China Plain were assessed along the stream length and during different seasons, using hydrochemical and stable isotope data, and groundwater residence times estimated using chlorofluorocarbons. These tracers indicate that the river is gaining, due to groundwater discharge in the headwater catchment both in the dry and rainy seasons. Residence time estimation of groundwater using chlorofluorocarbons data reveals that groundwater flow in the shallow sedimentary aquifer is dominated by the binary mixing of water approximating a piston flow model along 2 flow paths: old water, carried by a regional flow system along the direction of river flow, along with young water, which enters the river through local flow systems from hilly areas adjacent to the river valley (particularly during the rainy season). The larger mixing ratio of young water from lateral groundwater recharge and return flow of irrigation during the rainy season result in higher ion concentrations in groundwater than in the dry season. The binary mixing model showed that the ratio of young water versus total groundwater ranged from 0.88 to 0.22 and 1.0 to 0.74 in the upper and lower reaches, respectively. In the middle reach, meandering stream morphology allows some loss of river water back into the aquifer, leading to increasing estimates of the ratio of young water (from 0.22 to 1). This is also explained by declining groundwater levels near the river, due to groundwater extraction for agricultural irrigation. The switch from a greater predominance of regional flow in the dry season, to more localized groundwater flow paths in the wet season is an important groundwater–surface water interactions mechanism, with important catchment management implications.     

Modification of the SWAT model to simulate regional groundwater flow using a multicell aquifer

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been widely used and thoroughly tested in many places in the world. The application of the SWAT model has pointed out that 2 of the major weaknesses of SWAT are related to the nonspatial reference of the hydrologic response unit concept and to the simplified groundwater concept, which contribute to its low performance in baseflow simulation and its inability to simulate regional groundwater flow. This study modified the groundwater module of SWAT to overcome the above limitations. The modified groundwater module has 2 aquifers. The local aquifer, which is the shallow aquifer in the original SWAT, represents a local groundwater flow system. The regional aquifer, which replaces the deep aquifer of the original SWAT, represents intermediate and regional groundwater flow systems. Groundwater recharge is partitioned into local and regional aquifer recharges. The regional aquifer is represented by a multicell aquifer (MCA) model. The regional aquifer is discretized into cells using the Thiessen polygon method, where centres of the cells are locations of groundwater observation wells. Groundwater flow between cells is modelled using Darcy's law. Return flow from cell to stream is conceptualized using a non‐linear storage–discharge relationship. The SWAT model with the modified aquifer module, the so‐called SWAT‐MCA, was tested in 2 basins (Wipperau and Neetze) with porous aquifers in a lowland area in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results from the Wipperau basin show that the SWAT‐MCA model is able (a) to simulate baseflow in a lowland area (where baseflow is a dominant source of streamflow) better than the original model and (b) to simulate regional groundwater flow, shown by the simulated groundwater levels in cells, quite well.     

Recognition of Regional Water Table Patterns for Estimating Recharge Rates in Shallow Aquifers

We propose a new method for groundwater recharge rate estimation in regions with stream-aquifer interactions, at a linear scale on the order of 10 km and more. The method is based on visual identification and quantification of classically recognized water table contour patterns. Simple quantitative analysis of these patterns can be done manually from measurements on a map, or from more complex GIS data extraction and curve fitting. Recharge rate is then estimated from the groundwater table contour parameters, streambed gradients, and aquifer transmissivity using an analytical model for groundwater flow between parallel perennial streams. Recharge estimates were obtained in three regions (areas of 1500, 2200, and 3300 km²) using available water table maps produced by different methods at different times in the area of High Plains Aquifer in Nebraska. One region is located in the largely undeveloped Nebraska Sand Hills area, while the other two regions are located at a transition zone from Sand Hills to loess-covered area and include areas where groundwater is used for irrigation. Obtained recharge rates are consistent with other independent estimates. The approach is useful and robust diagnostic tool for preliminary estimates of recharge rates, evaluation of the quality of groundwater table maps, identification of priority areas for further aquifer characterization and expansion of groundwater monitoring networks prior to using more detailed methods.     

Predicting saturation‐excess runoff distribution with a lumped hillslope model: SWAT‐HS

Saturation‐excess runoff is the major runoff mechanism in humid well‐vegetated areas where infiltration rates often exceed rainfall intensity. Although the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used models, it predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and is implicitly an infiltration‐excess runoff type of model. Previous attempts to incorporate the saturation‐excess runoff mechanism in SWAT fell short due to the inability to distribute water from one hydrological response unit to another. This paper introduces a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT‐Hillslope (SWAT‐HS). This modification improves the simulation of saturation‐excess runoff by redefining hydrological response units based on wetness classes and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from “drier” to “wetter” wetness classes. Mathematically, the surface aquifer is a nonlinear reservoir that generates rapid subsurface stormflow as the water table in the surface aquifer rises. The SWAT‐HS model was tested in the Town Brook watershed in the upper reaches of the West Branch Delaware River in the Catskill region of New York, USA. SWAT‐HS predicted discharge well with a Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.68 and 0.87 for daily and monthly time steps. Compared to the original SWAT model, SWAT‐HS predicted less surface runoff and groundwater flow and more lateral flow. The saturated areas predicted by SWAT‐HS were concentrated in locations with a high topographic index and were in agreement with field observations. With the incorporation of topographic characteristics and the addition of the surface aquifer, SWAT‐HS improved streamflow simulation and gave a good representation of saturated areas on the dates that measurements were available. SWAT‐HS is expected to improve water quality model predictions where the location of the surface runoff matters.     

Aquifer–peatland connectivity in southern Quebec (Canada)

In areas where peatlands are abundant, they are likely to play a significant role in the hydrological and hydrogeological dynamics of a watershed. Although individual case studies are reported in the literature, there is a large range of aquifer–peatland interactions and there is a need to understand the controls of these interactions. The objectives of this study were (1) to better understand aquifer–peatland connections and how these may be predicted by geology and geomorphic location and (2) to provide a variety of reference sites for glacial geological settings. Slope and depression peatlands were studied in the Abitibi‐Témiscamingue region and in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, two contrasting regions of southern Quebec. A total of 12 transects that span a shallow aquifer–peatland interface were instrumented with piezometers. Field investigations included peatland characterization, monthly water level monitoring, and continuous hydraulic head measurements with pressure transducers. The results indicate that 7 of the 12 transects receive groundwater from the surrounding shallow aquifer. At the peatland margin, four lateral flow patterns were identified and associated with slope peatlands (parallel inflow and divergent flow) and with depression peatlands (convergent flow and parallel outflow). Vertical hydraulic gradients suggest that water flows mainly downwards, i.e. from the peatland to the underlying mineral deposits. Vertical connectivity appears to decrease as the distance from the peatland margin increases. All of these exchanges are important components in the sustainability of peatland hydrogeological functions. The regional comparison of aquifer–peatland flow dynamics performed in this study provides a new set of referenced data for the assessment of aquifer–peatland connectivity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface water on continental water storage variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 km³/year during 1998–2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 km³/year during 1998–2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 km³/year of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km³/year of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of natural advection on stabilization of contaminant plume in natural traps at underground disposal of liquid wastes

The migration of a contaminant from a zone of injection disposal of hazardous liquid waste in a deep-seated aquifer is considered. Because of its higher density, the polluted groundwater will accumulate under the effect of gravity in aquifer dips (depressions). A 2D-model of variable-density groundwater flow is used to determine the conditions under which the gravity force will prevent polluted groundwater from leaving depressions driven by regional current. As the result, such depressions can serve as natural traps for polluted waters. The required conditions are based on simple analytical relationships, derived from the analysis of a theoretical model of variable-density groundwater flow in an inclined confined aquifer. The obtained technique is used to estimate the efficiency of such a trap at the site of injection disposal of liquid radioactive waste from Mining and Chemical Combine in Krasnoyarsk region. The analytical estimates of the trap with the use of the proposed technique are shown to be in good agreement with the results of numerical simulation of contaminant migration.