Ground-Based Radar Reflectivity Mosaic of Mei-yu Precipitation Systems over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basins

The 3D radar reflectivity produced by a mosaic software system, with measurements from 29 operational weather radars in the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basins(YRHRB) during the mei-yu season of 2007, is compared to coincident TRMM PR observations in order to evaluate the value of the ground-based radar reflectivity mosaic in characterizing the 3D structures of mei-yu precipitation. Results show reasonable agreement in the composite radar reflectivity between the two datasets,with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a mean bias of -1 dB. The radar mosaic data at constant altitudes are reasonably consistent with the TRMM PR observations in the height range of 2–5 km, revealing essentially the same spatial distribution of radar echo and nearly identical histograms of reflectivity. However, at altitudes above 5 km, the mosaic data overestimate reflectivity and have slower decreasing rates with height compared to the TRMM PR observations. The areas of convective and stratiform precipitation, based on the mosaic reflectivity distribution at 3-km altitude, are highly correlated with the corresponding regions in the TRMM products, with correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.97 and mean relative differences of -7.9% and -2.5%, respectively. Finally, the usefulness of the mosaic reflectivity at 3-km altitude at 6-min intervals is illustrated using a mesoscale convective system that occurred over the YRHRB.     

Historical Changes and Future Projections of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway

Based on multiresource high-resolution in situ and satellite merged observations along with model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX), this study first investigated historical changes in extreme temperature and precipitation during the period of 1979–2018 in areas along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, and then projected the future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation under the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This paper is expected to enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in the extreme temperature and precipitation along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, and to provide scientific basis to advance the Sichuan–Tibet Railway construction and operation. The results show that temperatures in the Sichuan–Tibet region display a noticeable warming trend in the past40 years, and the increase of minimum temperature is significantly higher than that of maximum temperature in the northwest of the region. Significant increase of precipitation is found mainly over the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau. Except for Lhasa and its surrounding areas, precipitation over other areas along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway shows no significant change in the past 40 years, as indicated in five datasets; however, precipitation along the railway has shown a remarkable decrease in the past 20 years in the TRMM satellite dataset. The warm days and nights have clearly increased by 6 and 5 day decade1-for 1979–2019, while cold days and nights have markedly decreased by about 6.6 and 3.6 day decade-1, respectively. In the past 20 years, the areas with increased precipitation from very wet days and extremely wet days are mainly distributed to the north of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, while in the areas along the railway itself, the very wet days and extremely wet days are decreasing. Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, the temperature in the Sichuan–Tibet region will increase significantly, and the frequency of extreme high(low) temperature events in the late 21 st century(2070–2099) will greatly increase(decrease) by about 50%–80%(10%) compared with occurrences in the late 20 th century(1970–1999). Meanwhile, the frequency of very wet days and extremely wet days in the Sichuan–Tibet region will increase by about 2%–19% and 2%–5%, respectively, and the areas along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway will be affected by more extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation events.     

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific in 2008–10

Diurnal variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using the high-resolution Climate Prediction Center’s morphing technique (CMORPH) products obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From January 2008 to October 2010, 72 TCs and 389 TC rainfall days were reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) best-track record. The TC rain rate was partitioned using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) and interpolated into Local Standard Time (LST). Harmonic analysis was applied to analyze the diurnal variation of the precipitation. Obvious diurnal cycles were seen in approximately 70% of the TC rainfall days. The harmonic amplitude and phase of the mean TC rainfall rate vary with TC intensity, life stage, season, and spatial distribution. On the basis of intensity, tropical depressions (TDs) exhibit the highest precipitation variation amplitude (PVA), at approximately 30%, while super typhoons (STs) contain the lowest PVA, at less than 22%. On the basis of lifetime stage, the PVA in the decaying stage (more than 37%) is stronger than that in the developing (less than 20%) and sustaining (28%) stages. On the basis of location, the PVA of more than 35% (less than 18%) is the highest (lowest) over the high-latitude oceanic areas (the eastern ocean of the Philippine Islands). In addition, a sub-diurnal cycle of TC rainfall occurs over the high-latitude oceans. On the basis of season, the diurnal variation is more pronounced during summer and winter, at approximately 30% and 32%, respectively, and is weaker in spring and autumn, at approximately 22% and 24%, respectively.     

Characteristics of Near Surface Winds over Different Underlying Surfaces in China: Implications for Wind Power Development

Accurate wind and turbulence information are essential to wind energy research and utilization, among which wind shear and turbulence intensity/scale have seldom been investigated. In this paper, the observational data from the100-m high wind towers in Xilinhot in Inner Mongolia(2009–10; grassland region), Huanghua in Hebei Province(2009–10; coastal flat region), and Xingzi County in Jiangxi Province(2010–11; mountain–lake region) are used to study the variations in near surface winds and turbulence characteristics related to the development of local wind energy over different underlying surfaces. The results indicate that(1) the percentage of the observed wind shear exponents exceeding 0.3 for the grassland region is 6%, while the percentage is 13% for the coastal flat region and 10%for the mountain–lake region. In other words, if the wind speed at 10 m is 10 ms^–1, the percentage of the wind speed at 100 m exceeding 20 ms^–1 for the grassland region is 6%, while the percentage is 13% for the coastal flat region and 10% for the mountain–lake region.(2) In terms of the turbulent intensity in the zonal, meridional, and vertical directions(I_u, I_v, and I_w, respectively), the frequencies of I_v/I_u < 0.8 in the grassland, coastal flat, and mountain–lake regions are 23%–29%, 32%–38%, and 30%–37%, respectively. Additionally, the frequencies of I_w/I_u < 0.5 in the grassland, coastal flat, and mountain–lake regions are 45%–75%, 52%–70%, and 43%–53%, respectively. The frequencies of I_v/I_u < 0.8 and Iw/I_u < 0.5 in each region mean that I_u is large and the air flow is unstable and fluctuating,which will damage the wind turbines. Therefore, these conditions do not meet the wind turbine design requirements,which must be considered separately.(3) At 50-and 70-m heights, the value of the turbulence scale parameter Λ in the grassland region is greater than that in the coastal flat region, and the latter is greater than that in the mountain–lake region. Therefore, under the same conditions, some parameters, e.g., the extreme directional change and extreme operating gust at the hub height in the grassland region, are greater than those in the coastal flat region,which are greater than those in the mountain–lake region. These results provide a reference for harnessing local wind energy resources and for the selection and design of wind turbines.     

Statistics of the Z–R Relationship for Strong Convective Weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin and Its Application to Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation for a Heavy Rain Event

The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor(Z) and the rainfall rate(R) is recalculated based on radar observations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z–R relationship is combined with an empirical qr–R relationship to obtain a new Z–qr relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational(3 DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to improve the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The performance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3 DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z–R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3 DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected reflectivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better performance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original reflectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z–R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin than the Z–R relationships currently in use.     

The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea during May–September

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the South China Sea(SCS) on the 30–60-day timescale during boreal summer(May–September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30–60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10–90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30–60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive(negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies(southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough–ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30–60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux(MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the30–60-day SST variability in the SCS.     

Long-Term Trends of Carbon Monoxide Total Columnar Amount in Urban Areas and Background Regions: Ground-and Satellite-based Spectroscopic Measurements

A comparative study was carried out to explore carbon monoxide total columnar amount(CO TC) in background and polluted atmosphere, including the stations of ZSS(Zvenigorod), ZOTTO(Central Siberia), Peterhof, Beijing, and Moscow,during 1998–2014, on the basis of ground-and satellite-based spectroscopic measurements. Interannual variations of CO TC in different regions of Eurasia were obtained from ground-based spectroscopic observations, combined with satellite data from the sensors MOPITT(2001–14), AIRS(2003–14), and IASI Met Op-A(2010–13). A decreasing trend in CO TC(1998–2014) was found at the urban site of Beijing, where CO TC decreased by 1.14% ± 0.87% yr~(-1). Meanwhile, at the Moscow site, CO TC decreased remarkably by 3.73% ± 0.39% yr~(-1). In the background regions(ZSS, ZOTTO, Peterhof), the reduction was 0.9%–1.7% yr~(-1) during the same period. Based on the AIRSv6 satellite data for the period 2003–14, a slight decrease(0.4%–0.6% yr~(-1)) of CO TC was detected over the midlatitudes of Eurasia, while a reduction of 0.9%–1.2% yr~(-1) was found in Southeast Asia. The degree of correlation between the CO TC derived from satellite products(MOPITTv6 Joint, AIRSv6 and IASI Met Op-A) and ground-based measurements was calculated, revealing significant correlation in unpolluted regions.While in polluted areas, IASI Met Op-A and AIRSv6 data underestimated CO TC by a factor of 1.5–2.8. On average, the correlation coefficient between ground-and satellite-based data increased significantly for cases with PBL heights greater than 500 m.     

An Adjoint-Free CNOP–4DVar Hybrid Method for Identifying Sensitive Areas in Targeted Observations: Method Formulation and Preliminary Evaluation

This paper proposes a hybrid method, called CNOP–4 DVar, for the identification of sensitive areas in targeted observations, which takes the advantages of both the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) and four-dimensional variational assimilation(4 DVar) methods. The proposed CNOP–4 DVar method is capable of capturing the most sensitive initial perturbation(IP), which causes the greatest perturbation growth at the time of verification; it can also identify sensitive areas by evaluating their assimilation effects for eliminating the most sensitive IP. To alleviate the dependence of the CNOP–4 DVar method on the adjoint model, which is inherited from the adjoint-based approach, we utilized two adjointfree methods, NLS-CNOP and NLS-4 DVar, to solve the CNOP and 4 DVar sub-problems, respectively. A comprehensive performance evaluation for the proposed CNOP–4 DVar method and its comparison with the CNOP and CNOP–ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF) methods based on 10 000 observing system simulation experiments on the shallow-water equation model are also provided. The experimental results show that the proposed CNOP–4 DVar method performs better than the CNOP–ETKF method and substantially better than the CNOP method.     

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006. First, the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared. The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200–800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear. High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs. TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity. A vertical shear of 8–9 m/s (9–10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h (48 h). A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h. Finally, a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression, which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear. Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.     

Comparison of column-integrated aerosol optical and physical properties in an urban and suburban site on the North China Plain

The column-integrated optical properties of aerosol in Beijing and Xianghe, two AErosol RObotic NETwork(AERONET)sites situated on the North China Plain(NCP), are investigated based on Cimel sunphotometer measurements from October2004 to June 2012. The outstanding feature found is that the seasonal medians of aerosol optical depth(AOD) at the two stations are in good agreement. The correlation coefficients and the absolute differences between AOD at the two stations are larger than 0.84 and less than 0.05, respectively. Good agreement in AOD at these two sites(one urban and the other suburban; 70 km apart) indicates that aerosol pollution in the Greater Beijing area is regional in nature. However, we find significant differences in the absorption ?Angstr ¨om Exponent(AAE), the real and imaginary part of the refractive index, and thereby the single scattering albedo(SSA), and the difference is seasonally dependent. The feature is found to be more prominent in fall when the fine-mode fraction(FMF) and fine-mode effective radius are significantly different at the two stations,besides the parameters mentioned above. The SSA in Beijing at four wavelengths shows lower values as compared to those in Xianghe, although the difference is not significant in some cases. Significant differences in AAE and fine-mode effective radius indicate that there are differences in aerosol physical and chemical properties in urban and suburban regions on the NCP.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠地区气溶胶光学厚度卫星遥感产品验证

基于塔克拉玛干沙漠地区地基太阳光度计数据,系统验证2007～2008年星载多角度成像光谱仪(MISR)、中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)和臭氧监测仪(OMI)气溶胶反演产品,旨在定量评估这些产品在我国沙漠地区的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)反演精度。结果表明:MODIS/AOD的相关系数在4种产品中最高(0.91),OMI/AOD次之(0.87),其次为MISR/AOD(0.84),OMI/UVAI相关系数偏低(0.51)。MISR/AOD均方根误差(0.14)和平均偏差(-0.06)在4种反演产品中最低。与地基观测相比,MISR/AOD、MODIS/AOD系统偏低,OMI/AOD、OMI/UVAI系统偏高。在相同比较条件下(地基观测气溶胶光学厚度值限定在2.0以内),MISR的均方根误差和平均偏差在4种反演产品中最低,且相关系数也较高(0.84)。尽管存在诸多不同,但3种探测器气溶胶反演产品均能较好地展示该地区的气溶胶季节变化。塔克拉玛干沙漠春、夏季AOD较大,秋、冬季AOD相对较小。ngstrm波长指数的结果表明,春季(3～5月)最小(均值为0.11),夏季(6～8月)次之,秋季(9～11月)和冬季(12月至次年2月)较大(均值达到0.61),这表明在春、夏季气溶胶粒子偏大,秋、冬季气溶胶粒子偏小。此外,通过研究2000～2010年AOD年际变化表明,由于塔克拉玛干沙漠地区属于沙尘源区,气溶胶类型较为单一,所以总体来说,变化趋势不是较为明显。从反演结果来看,2003年的气溶胶含量为此10年中最高,年均值达到0.32;2005年的气溶胶含量在这10年中最低,年均值为0.28。     

拉萨市气溶胶光学厚度研究及MODIS产品检验

利用拉萨站及纳木错站地面观测数据分析了拉萨市气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)日变化、季节变化,并对MODIS产品的数据质量及适用性进行了初步检验。结果表明,拉萨市AOD在08～10时,17～20时存在明显波动,11～16时比较稳定。拉萨站与纳木错站AOD季节变化存在差异,拉萨站呈单峰型,峰值在春季,纳木错呈双峰型,主峰在春季,次峰出现在8月,季节变化极大值的出现可能与春季沙尘天气有关。拉萨站AOD整体高于纳木错站,Angstrom波长指数则相对较小,这可能与城市人类活动有关。MODIS气溶胶产品在拉萨不具适用性。      

Spatio-temporal variations of optical properties of aerosols in East Asia measured by MODIS and relation to the ground-based mass concentrations observed in central Korea during 2001∼2010

Long-term variations and trends of atmospheric aerosols in the East Asian region were analyzed by using aerosol optical depth (AOD or τ), and ångström exponent (AE or α) obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2001 to 2010. The increased emission of anthropogenic fine aerosols in east China resulted in the high AOD in this region during summer. The steady increasing emission of anthropogenic fine aerosols caused an increasing trend of AOD in east China, and the large-scale transport of sandstorms and smoke plume caused by forest fires affected intense inter-annual variations of AOD in the East Asian region. While in the central part of South Korea, located in the lee side of the East Asian continent, AE tended to rise to a level higher than in east China, the ground-based mass concentrations continued to decline. A noticeable decrease of PM10 mass concentration in spring and winter in central Korea is most likely attributable to decreases in sandstorms in the source region of East Asia. However, the ratio of PM2.5 mass concentration to PM10 increases overall with a high level in summer. Aerosol types were classified into dust, smoke plume, and sulphate by using satellite data over Cheongwon in central Korea. The columnar AOD, with different aerosol types, was compared with the ground-based mass concentrations at Cheongwon, and the relatively high level of the correlations presented between PM2.5 and AOD produced in sulphate. Growth and increases of fine hygroscopic aerosols generated as gas-to-particle conversion particularly in summer contribute to increases of columnar AOD in the East Asian region.     

Himawari-8气溶胶光学厚度产品的验证分析

Himawari-8是由日本气象局发射的新一代静止气象卫星，其搭载的传感器AHI（Advanced Himawari Imager）可实现10 min/次的高时间分辨率对地观测。本文将2015年9月至2017年12月Himawari-8卫星Level-2气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）产品与AERONET（AErosol RObotic NETwork）70个站点的地基观测数据进行对比验证分析，结果表明Himawari-8卫星反演的气溶胶光学厚度产品的精度存在很大的空间上的差异性，其中有48个站点Himawari-8 AOD与AERONET AOD之间存在较好的相关性（R>0.5），有22个站点Himawari-8卫星反演气溶胶光学厚度产品存在明显的低估现象。在American_Samoa、Bandung、Birdsville、Bukit_Kototabang、Canberra、Fowlers_Gap、Jabiru以及QOMS_CAS等站点出现地基观测值很小而卫星反演的气溶胶光学厚度较大的情况。对绝对误差（Himawari-8 AOD与AERONET AOD的差）进行分析发现Himawari-8 AOD存在低估现象时绝对误差与AERONET AOD之间存在较好的相关性；在地基观测值很小而Himawari-8卫星反演AOD较大的地区绝对误差与Himawari-8 AOD之间存在较好的线性关系，这为Himawari-8 AOD反演算法的改进与完善提供了有用的研究发现。     

2010-2019年粤港澳地区气溶胶光学厚度时空分布特征

为了解粤港澳地区气溶胶光学厚度分布和时序变化规律, 深入认识大气气溶胶的光学特性及其气候效应, 利用2010—2019年的MODIS C61 AOD 3 km逐日产品, 分析了粤港澳地区的AOD空间分布及年、季、月变化特征。(1) MODIS AOD与AERONET CE318 AOD最优拟合系数为0.96, 与SolarSIM-D2 AOD拟合系数为0.62, 与PM < sub > 2.5 < /sub > 、PM < sub > 10 < /sub > 的最优拟合系数为0.58、0.56。(2)空间上表现为珠三角AOD值高, 粤西次之, 粤北及粤东北较低。(3)年变化特征整体上呈明显的下降趋势, 2010—2014年AOD波动上升, 至2014年达到峰值, 2015年后AOD显著减小, 于2016年达到最低值。(4)季节上表现为春季 > 夏季 > 秋季 > 冬季。(5)月变化特征表现为3月最大(AOD值: 0.73), 4月次之, 5—8月AOD维持在高值且波动平稳, 9—12月显著下降。研究显示, 粤港澳地区颗粒物污染防治应以佛山、广州等珠江三角洲城市及粤西为主, 重点控制春夏季高污染企业生产强度及颗粒物排放。      

基于MODIS数据的郑州市气溶胶时空变化特征分析

利用NASA发布的MODIS/Terra中Collection6数据集的MOD04_3K气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品,进行波段提取、重投影、剪裁等预处理,得到郑州市气溶胶光学厚度资料,对此进行统计分析,研究郑州市气溶胶光学厚度的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)2001-2016年郑州市AOD年均值整体以每年0.0033的速率增加,最大峰值出现在2011年(1.01),以2011年为界,2001-2011年呈显著增长趋势,2012-2016年呈显著下降趋势。AOD季节均值夏季的最大,春季的次之,冬季的最小。2)2001-2016年郑州市AOD夏季均值波动较大,春季均值与年均值趋势基本一致,AOD年均值和季均值与对应时间尺度的降水量有负相关关系。工业产值占GDP比重与AOD年均值呈正相关关系。3)2001-2016年郑州市AOD年均值空间分布呈现北高南低、东高西低的特征,高值区主要分布在新郑市、中牟县、郑州市区、荥阳市及巩义市的西北部。春、夏和秋季的AOD均值空间分布形态基本与年均值的分布一致,冬季的高值区集中在郑州市东南部(新郑市)。     

Retrieval of aerosol optical depth for Chongqing using the HJ-1 satellite data

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a common indicator applied in monitoring aerosols in the atmosphere. The hilly landscape and rapid economic growth of the megacity Chongqing have facilitated increased aerosol concentration, and it is meaningful to accurately retrieve AOD over Chongqing. The HJ-1A/B satellite of China carries a sensor/camera called the Charge Coupled Device (CCD), the spatial resolution of which meets the requirement for retrieving high resolution AOD. In this paper, analysis of the AOD retrievals from different methods using the HJ-1 satellite data revealed the most suitable algorithm. Through comparison with the AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the AOD retrieval results using enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to estimate dark pixels showed the highest correlation. The continental aerosol model was used to build a lookup table that was able to facilitate a good AOD retrieval for both city and rural areas. Finally, the algorithm that combined dark pixels, buffer areas, and the deep blue algorithm was found to be most suitable for AOD retrieval. The AOD retrieval results based on the HJ-1 data were consistent with MODIS products, and our algorithm yields reasonable results in most cases. The results were also compared with ground-based PM₁₀ measurements synchronized with the overpass time of the HJ-1 satellite, and high correlation was found. The findings are relevant to other Chinese satellite data used for retrieving AOD on the same channels.     

Aerosol spectra and new particle formation observed in various seasons in Nanjing

The aerosol number spectrum and gas pollutants were measured and the new particle formation （NPF） events were discussed in Nanjing. The results showed that the size distributions of aerosol number concen- trations exhibited distinct seasonal variations, implying the relations of particle sizes and their sources and sinks. The number concentrations of particles in the nuclei mode （10-30 nm）, Aitken mode （30-100 nm）, accumulation mode （100 -1000 nm） and coarse mode （〉1μm） varied in the order of summer 〉 spring 〉 autumn, summer 〉 autumn 〉 spring, autumn 〉 summer 〉 spring, and spring 〉 autumn 〉summer, re- spectively. The diurnal variation of total aerosol number concentrations showed three peaks in all observed periods, which corresponded to two rush hours and the photochemistry period at noon. In general, the NPF in summer occurred under the conditions of east winds and dominant air masses originating from marine areas with high relative humidity （50%-70%） and strong solar radiations （400 -700 W m-2）. In spring, the NPF were generally accompanied by low relative humidity （14%-30%） and strong solar radiations （400-600 W m-2）. The new particle growth rates （GR） were higher in the summertime in the range of 10- 16 nm h-1. In spring, the GR were 6.8-8.3 nm h-1. Under polluted air conditions, NPF events were seldom captured in autumn in Nanjing. During NPF periods, positive correlations between 10- 30 nm particles and 03 were detected, particularly in spring, indicating that NPF can be attributed to photochemical reactions.     

联合概率方法在北京灾害天气预报中的应用研究

基于ECMWF模式的集合预报数据,利用联合概率方法,针对北京地区冬季影响最大的寒潮和夏季强对流两类灾害性天气,建立了适用于本地区的两种集合预报业务产品。选取2 m温度和10 m平均风速制作寒潮预警信号联合概率预报产品,选取对流有效位能和0-6 km垂直风切变制作强对流潜势联合概率预报产品。通过对北京地区近年寒潮和强对流天气的预报检验表明：寒潮预警信号联合概率方法,当预报概率达到10%及以上时,实况就有可能达寒潮蓝色预警信号的级别;此方法对北京西北部的预报性能较好,其次为北京的东南部地区;对达到蓝色预警信号标准的区域具有较高的预报命中率,但对达黄色预警信号级别的区域,漏报率较高。强对流潜势联合概率方法的空报率较高,当预报概率达90%-100%时,实况才有可能出现强对流;与局地强对流相比,全市性强对流天气的高概率预报区域较为集中。     

华东地区气溶胶分布和变化特征研究

利用中分辨率光谱仪(MODIS)获得的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)、细粒子比例(FMF)和臭氧检测仪(OMI)获得的气溶胶指数(AI)统计分析了2005—2014年我国华东地区气溶胶光学性质的时空分布特征,同时利用潜在源分析(PSCF)模型对我国华东地区AOD和AI的潜在源区进行分析。研究结果表明:华东地区的AOD、FMF和AI时空分布存在较大的差异,2005—2014年AOD和AI的平均值高值主要分布在华东地区北部,FMF的高值区则分布在华东南部地区;10 a间华东地区AOD呈现出先升高后降低的趋势,FMF波动幅度不明显,AI值有所上升;整个华东地区AOD的季节变化较为明显,春夏两季AOD明显高于秋冬两季。华东北部和中部地区夏季由于较高的相对湿度,AOD最大可达0.8以上。而在华东南部地区,夏季受到降水的影响,AOD维持在0.2~0.4之间。FMF季节变化趋势与AOD不同,夏季最大达到0.58,春季最小仅为0.26。AI平均值在冬季最大高达0.63,夏季最小,为0.27。PSCF分析显示华东地区AOD主要源区以局地排放为主,同时也存在由河南、湖北和湖南等周边省市近距离输送影响;AI以局地和北方远距离输送为主,同时也受到河南、湖北等周边省市近距离输送的影响。