A Logistic-growth-equation-based Intensity Prediction Scheme for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones※

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity remains a challenge due to the complex physical processes involved in TC intensity changes. A seven-day T...     

A Velocity Dealiasing Scheme for C-band Weather Radar Systems简

A dealiasing algorithm for radar radial velocity observed by C-band Doppler radars is presented as an extension of an existing S-band dealiasing algorithm. This has operational significance in that many portable and many commercial broadcast radars, as well as approximately one half of the Chinese weather radar network （CINRAD）, are C-band radars. With a wavelength of about 5 cm, the Nyquist interval of C-band radars is just about one half that of S-band radars （wavelength of about 10 cm） and thus has more velocity folding. The proposed algorithm includes seven modules to remove noisy data, find the starting radials, dealias velocities, and apply least squares error checking in both the radial and azimuth directions. The proposed velocity dealiasing method was applied to one widespread rain case and three strong convective cases from radars operating in China. It was found that, on average, 92.95% of the aliased radial velocity data could be correctly de-aliased by the algorithm, resulting in 96.65% of the data being valid.     

Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Climate Change in China during the Han Dynasty(1–200 A.D.)

In this study,a 2000-year simulation forced by transient,external forcings is carried out with the Community Earth System Model.The authors investigate the spatiotemporal features of climate change in the Han Dynasty(1–200 A.D.)using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method.The leading EOF mode of the annua mean temperature anomalies shows a uniform variation of temperature over the whole of China,while the second EOF mode indicates opposite variations of temperature between western and eastern China.For the annual mean precipitation anomalies,the first EOF mode indicates a meridional dipole pattern over eastern China,with increased(decreased)precipitation to the south of the Yangtze River and decreased(increased)precipitation to the north.The leading mode of the 850 h Pa winds and sea level pressure in summer exhibits a southwesterly(northeasterly)anomaly over South China,which is associated with a strengthened(reduced)meridional sea level pressure gradient.Compared to reconstructions,the model can capture the majority of features of climate changes in the Han Dynasty,though it underestimates the magnitude.     

A millennial long March–July precipitation reconstruction for southern-central England

We present a millennial long dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring/summer precipitation for southern-central England. Previous research identified a significant moisture stress signal in ring-width data measured from oak trees growing in southern England. In this study, we build upon this earlier work, specifically targeting south-central England, to derive a well replicated oak ring-width composite chronology using both living and historical material. The data-set includes 352 living trees (AD 1629–2009) and 1540 individual historical series (AD 663–1925). The period expressed by at least 50 trees in any year is AD 980–2009. Calibration experiments identify the optimal seasonal predictand target as March–July precipitation (1901–2007: r² = 0.33). However, comparison with the long Kew Gardens precipitation record indicates a weakening in tree-growth/climate response from ~1800 to 1920 which we speculate may be related to smoke and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions at that time which may have also contributed to a decrease in tree productivity. The time-series derived using the regional curve standardisation method to capture lower frequency information shows a mediaeval period with alternating multi-decade-long dry and wet periods, with AD 1153–1172 being the wettest reconstructed 20-year period in the whole record. Drier conditions are prevalent from ~1300 to the early sixteenth century followed by a period of increasing precipitation levels. The most recent four centuries of the record appear similar to the mediaeval period with multiple decade-long dry and wet periods. The late twentieth century is the second reconstructed wettest period. These centennial hydroclimatic trends are in broad agreement with independent regional scale hydroclimatic reconstructions from tree-ring (East Anglia), historical, speleothem and peat water level proxy archives in the United Kingdom and appear coupled with reconstructed sea surface temperature changes in the North Atlantic which in turn influence the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and westerly airflow across the UK.     

Dynamical and Thermal Problems in Vortex Development and Movement. Part I: A PV–Q View

Based on the Lagrangian change equation of vertical vorticity deduced from the equation of threedimensional Ertel potential vorticity(PV e),the development and movement of vortex are investigated from the view of potential vorticity and diabatic heating(PV-Q).It is demonstrated that the asymmetric distribution in the vortex of the non-uniform diabatic heating in both vertical and horizontal can lead to the vortex’s development and movement.The theoretical results are used to analyze the development and movement of a Tibetan Plateau(TP) vortex(TPV),which appeared over the TP,then slid down and moved eastward in late July 2008,resulting in heavy rainfall in Sichuan Province and along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The relative contributions to the vertical vorticity development of the TPV are decomposed into three parts:the diabatic heating,the change in horizontal component of PV e(defined as PV 2),and the change in static stability θ z.The results show that in most cases,diabatic heating plays a leading role,followed by the change in PV 2,while the change of θ z usually has a negative impact in a stable atmosphere when the atmosphere becomes more stable,and has a positive contribution when the atmosphere approaches neutral stratification.The intensification of the TPV from 0600 to 1200 UTC 22 July 2008 is mainly due to the diabatic heating associated with the precipitation on the eastern side of the TPV when it uplifted on the up-slope of the northeastern edge of the Sichuan basin.The vertical gradient of diabatic heating makes positive(negative) PV e generation below(above) the maximum of diabatic heating;the positive PV e generation not only intensifies the low-level vortex but also enhances the vertical extent of the vortex as it uplifts.The change in PV e due to the horizontal gradient of diabatic heating depends on the vertical shear of horizontal wind that passes through the center of diabatic heating.The horizontal gradient of diabatic heating makes positive(negative) PV e generation on the right(left) side of the vertical shear of horizontal wind.The positive PV e generation on the right side of the vertical shear of horizontal wind not only intensifies the local vertical vorticity but also affects direction of movement of the TPV.These diagnostic results are in good agreement with the theoretic results developed from the PV-Q view.     

A Europe–South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies

The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European–South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e.g. agriculture, health, hydro-electricity). Building the CLARIS network required fulfilling the following three objectives: (1) The first objective of CLARIS was to set up and favour the technical transfer and expertise in earth system and regional climate modelling between Europe and South America together with the providing of a list of climate data (observed and simulated) required for model validations; (2) The second objective of CLARIS was to facilitate the exchange of observed and simulated climate data between the climate research groups and to create a South American high-quality climate database for studies in extreme events and long-term climate trends; (3) Finally, the third objective of CLARIS was to strengthen the communication between climate researchers and stakeholders, and to demonstrate the feasibility of using climate information in the decision-making process.     

A Method for Increasing the Turbulent Kinetic Energy in the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić Boundary-Layer Parametrization

A method for enhancing the calculation of turbulent kinetic energy in the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić planetary boundary-layer parametrization in the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model is presented. This requires some unconventional selections for the closure constants and an additional stability dependent surface length scale. Single column model and three-dimensional model simulations are presented showing a similar performance with the existing boundary-layer parametrization, but with a more realistic magnitude of turbulence intensity closer to the surface with respect to observations. The intended application is an enhanced calculation of turbulence intensity for the purposes of a more accurate wind-energy forecast.     

A Deep Learning Method for Bias Correction of ECMWF 24–240 h Forecasts

Correcting the forecast bias of numerical weather prediction models is important for severe weather warnings. The refined grid forecast requires direct correction on gridded forecast products, as opposed to correcting forecast data only at individual weather stations. In this study, a deep learning method called CU-net is proposed to correct the gridded forecasts of four weather variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Integrated Forecasting System global model(ECMWF-IFS): 2-m temperature, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, and 10-m wind direction, with a forecast lead time of 24 h to 240 h in North China. First, the forecast correction problem is transformed into an image-toimage translation problem in deep learning under the CU-net architecture, which is based on convolutional neural networks.Second, the ECMWF-IFS forecasts and ECMWF reanalysis data(ERA5) from 2005 to 2018 are used as training,validation, and testing datasets. The predictors and labels(ground truth) of the model are created using the ECMWF-IFS and ERA5, respectively. Finally, the correction performance of CU-net is compared with a conventional method, anomaly numerical correction with observations(ANO). Results show that forecasts from CU-net have lower root mean square error, bias, mean absolute error, and higher correlation coefficient than those from ANO for all forecast lead times from 24 h to 240 h. CU-net improves upon the ECMWF-IFS forecast for all four weather variables in terms of the above evaluation metrics, whereas ANO improves upon ECMWF-IFS performance only for 2-m temperature and relative humidity. For the correction of the 10-m wind direction forecast, which is often difficult to achieve, CU-net also improves the correction performance.     

Properties of High-Order Finite Difference Schemes and Idealized Numerical Testing

Construction of high-order difference schemes based on Taylor series expansion has long been a hot topic in computational mathematics, while its application in comprehensive weather models is still very rare. Here, the properties of high-order finite difference schemes are studied based on idealized numerical testing, for the purpose of their application in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) model. It is found that the pros and cons due to grid staggering choices diminish with higher-order schemes based on linearized analysis of the one-dimensional gravity wave equation. The improvement of higher-order difference schemes is still obvious for the mesh with smooth varied grid distance. The results of discontinuous square wave testing also exhibits the superiority of high-order schemes. For a model grid with severe non-uniformity and non-orthogonality, the advantage of high-order difference schemes is inapparent, as shown by the results of two-dimensional idealized advection tests under a terrain-following coordinate. In addition, the increase in computational expense caused by high-order schemes can be avoided by the precondition technique used in the GRAPES model. In general, a high-order finite difference scheme is a preferable choice for the tropical regional GRAPES model with a quasi-uniform and quasi-orthogonal grid mesh.     

高阶高通隐式滤波法及其应用

采用反射边界条件的高阶高能隐式滤波法可以有效地分离尺度，抑制边界上的虚假增幅现象，对于评价和诊断要素场极为有用。用１９９１年７月５日，６日１°×１°网格的客观分析资料，对隐式双高法试验。结果表明，分离后的中尺度系统达到预想的效果。选择合适的参数能分离出所要分离的，且中尺度系统结构清晰，风压场比较协调，可作为中尺度分析的一种有用工具。     

高阶Runge-Kutta-Li算法对二维线性平流方程的计算检验

利用高阶Li空间微分方案(Li, 2005),实现了时间积分为3～6阶Runge-Kutta-Li(RKL)格式的求解算法。二维线性平流方程的试验结果表明:在计算稳定的条件下,各阶算法的计算误差随时间的推移基本上是线性增加的。非转动背景场的平流算例中（高斯型的初值）,高阶RKL算法可以取得较好的计算效果。与3、4、5、6阶RK算法配合的Li空间差分方案有效阶数可以达到5、7、9、10阶。RK 算法的阶数为5（6）阶时,总误差控制在10-7（10-8）以内。随RK阶数增加Li微分的有效阶数有增加趋势,且总误差逐渐减小。定常转速的背景场算例中（偏心的高斯型初值）,当RK阶数为3时,最优空间差分阶数为10;相应的阶数为4、5、6时对应的空间最优阶为16,22,22,总计算误差可以控制在10-15～10-16。随着精度的提高,误差的绝对值减小很迅速,说明算法是非常有效的。对于圆锥型初值（定常转速的背景场）,4、5、6阶RK算法和3阶算法的效果差不多。高阶算法对此类具有导数不连续点的算例,效果不如高斯初始场好,结果不能保持正定,有些地方误差出现下冲和上翘。随着空间差分精度的提高,非正定的解数量和数值减小,误差的绝对值减小,说明了算法在一定程度上是有效的,但并不适合追求极高的算法阶数。这与谱方法中的导数不连续问题有些相似,误差的产生主要源于导数的不连续性,差分类方法仅能获得与导数连续性阶数相当的算法精度。各种算例中,采用恰当的边界条件是必要的,例如旋转背景场算例,比较适合使用无穷远边界条件,否则会出现计算不稳定或无法将计算误差控制到较小的范围内。     

半隐式半拉格朗日平方守恒计算格式的构造

在显式半拉格朗日完全平方守恒格式基础上, 构造出半隐式半拉格朗日完全平方守恒计算格式, 它继承了显式半拉格朗日完全平方守恒格式的优点, 并突破计算不稳定柯朗条件对时间步长的约束, 使时间步长大为增长.此外, 还给出这种新的计算格式在一维原始方程上的应用.     

大气环流数值模式的一种并行化方案

从一般计算机并行计算理论出发,结合大气科学模式的特点,总结出一套对数值模式适用的并行化编程方案,而且提出了并行计算过程中应该注意的一些问题.利用文中提到的方案,可以帮助刚开始接触并行计算的模式编程人员快速完成串行数值模式的并行编程.最后,以一个串行的大气环流模式SAMIL并行化编程作为实例,对其并行计算过程和并行计算效率进行了描述和分析.     

Runge-Kutta算法与Li差分法不同阶数配合对计算精度影响研究

为了充分发挥高阶Li空间微分方案（Li, 2005）的优点,实现了时间积分为2~6阶Runge-Kutta（简称RK）格式的偏微分方程求解算法（简称RKL算法）。然后通过多组数值试验,研究了时间积分阶数对计算误差的影响。线性平流方程的试验结果表明对于方波函数型初值,2、4、5和6阶RK算法能获得和3阶精度差不多的结果,而对于高斯函数型的初值,高阶RKL算法可以取得较好的计算效果。RK为5（6）阶时,对应的Li微分阶数可达9（10）阶,总误差控制在10-7（10-8）以内。随RK阶数增加Li微分有效阶数有增加的趋势,而总误差在逐渐减小。计算非线性无粘Burgers方程时,RKL算法能否获得好的计算结果,除了受初始场形式的影响,还与计算的目标时刻有关。当目标时刻解的各阶导数连续（且未出现无穷大数值时）,高阶（RK为4~6阶）算法是有效的;若出现了导数间断、或导数为无穷大,就会碰到冲击波解类型的问题,此时高阶RK算法也无法获得很高精度的数值解。此非线性的算例中,Li微分阶数仍然随RK阶数增加而增加,但增加的趋势不是线性的,具体变化关系可以通过实验结果拟合而获得。研究发现时间积分方案阶数大于3之后,对应的最优空间差分精度阶数可以比6阶提高很多,这再次证明了以前研究中6阶以上空间差分格式对结果无改进的现象,是由于没有使用足够高精度的时间积分方案引起的。相比于Taylor-Li（Wang,2017）算法,5~6阶的RK方法编程和实现简单,计算结果的精度比3阶算法要提高很多,因此,它是一种能够对复杂方程适用的简易高阶算法方案,具有一定的实用价值。     

A Two-Step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme

This paper proposes a new two-step non-oscillatory shape-preserving positive definite finite difference advection transport scheme, which merges the advantages of small dispersion error in the simple first-order upstream scheme and small dissipation error in the simple second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme and is completely different from most of present positive definite advection schemes which are based on revising the upstream scheme results. The proposed scheme is much less time consuming than present shape-preserving or non-oscillatory advection transport schemes and produces results which are comparable to the results obtained from the present more complicated schemes. Elementary tests are also presented to examine the behavior of the scheme.     

Applicability of Temperature Discrete Equation to NMRF Boundary Layer Scheme in GRAPES Model

By deriving the discrete equation of the parameterized equation for the New Medium-Range Forecast(NMRF) boundary layer scheme in the GRAPES model, the adjusted discrete equation for temperature is obviously different from the original equation under the background of hydrostatic equilibrium and adiabatic hypothesis. In the present research, three discrete equations for temperature in the NMRF boundary layer scheme are applied, namely the original(hereafter NMRF), the adjustment(hereafter NMRF-go...     

A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China

The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal(one season in advance) prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model.First,the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors.Second,the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China.Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983-2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation,trend,and sign but also was stable during the whole period.Furthermore,the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.     

一类计算稳定性好的显式平流差分格式

通常的显式平流差分格式，如迎风格式，Lax-Wendroff格式等，均是有条件稳定的,其稳定条件与差分网格的时、空步长有关。本文对线性和拟线性平流方程分别构造了一种计算稳定性好的显式差分格式。对前一格式，本文严格证明了它的无条件稳定性及收敛性，并具有一阶精度；对后一格式，由于非线性方程的限制，本文用数值试验研究了它的计算稳定性。