Impact of the Preceding Boreal Winter Southern Annular Mode on the Summertime Somali Jet

One of the major high-latitude circulation systems in the Southern Hemisphere is the Southern Annular Mode（SAM）. Its effect on the Somali Jet（SMJ）, which connects the Southern and Northern hemispheres, cannot be ignored. The present reported results show that time series of both the Southern Annular Mode Index（SAMI） during the preceding winter and the summertime Somali Jet intensity Index（SMJI） display a significant increasing trend and have similar interdecadal variation. The latter was rather strong around 1960, then became weaker up to the mid-1980 s, before starting to strengthen again. The lead-lag correlations of monthly mean SAMI with the following summertime SMJI showed significant positive correlations in November, December, and January. There are thus connections across two seasons between the SAM and the SMJ. The influence of the winter SAM on the summer SMJ was explored via analyses of SST anomalies in the Southern Indian Ocean. During strong（weak） SAM/SMJ years, the SST east of Madagascar is colder（warmer） while the SST west of Australia is warmer（colder）, corresponding to the positive（negative） Southern Indian Ocean Dipole-like（SIODL） event. Subsequently, the SIODL excites an anticyclone located over the Arabian Sea in summer through air-sea coupling from winter to summer, which causes an increase in the summer SMJ intensity. The anticyclone/high branch of the SAM over the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and the cyclone/low over the east coast of Madagascar play an important role in the formation of Southern Indian Ocean ＂bridge＂ from winter to summer.     

Intermodel Diversity of Simulated Long-term Changes in the Austral Winter Southern Annular Mode: Role of the Southern Ocean Dipole

The Southern Annular Mode(SAM)plays an important role in regulating Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation.State-of-the-art models exhibit intermodel spread in simulating long-term changes in the SAM.Results from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)experiments from 28 models archived in CMIP5 show that the intermodel spread in the linear trend in the austral winter(June?July?August)SAM is significant,with an intermodel standard deviation of 0.28(10 yr)?1,larger than the multimodel ensemble mean of 0.18(10 yr)?1.This study explores potential factors underlying the model difference from the aspect of extratropical sea surface temperature(SST).Extratropical SST anomalies related to the SAM exhibit a dipole-like structure between middle and high latitudes,referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole(SOD).The role of SOD-like SST anomalies in influencing the SAM is found in the AMIP simulations.Model performance in simulating the SAM trend is linked with model skill in reflecting the SOD?SAM relationship.Models with stronger linkage between the SOD and the SAM tend to simulate a stronger SAM trend.The explained variance is about 40%in the AMIP runs.These results suggest improved simulation of the SOD?SAM relationship may help reproduce long-term changes in the SAM.     

南大洋淡水强迫对南半球环状模的影响分析

南半球环状模是南半球热带外大气环流变异的主导模态,对南半球海洋—大气—海冰耦合系统有重要的影响。冰川融化激发的淡水强迫是南大洋的一种重要外强迫。在历史气候记录中,南大洋淡水通量异常曾引发数次全球性气候异常事件。基于海—气完全耦合模式FOAM,在60°S以南的海洋中施加强度为1.0 Sv的理想化淡水通量异常,分析南半球环状模的响应。结果表明：南大洋淡水通量异常可使局地西风增强,且西风的增强在垂向各个层次上均有体现。西风强度的变化导致对流层中大气斜压性增强,平流层中大气斜压性减弱。此外,淡水强迫使环状模的年际变率振幅显著减弱,而年代际变率开始增强,谱能量的变化具有垂向一致性。海温和海冰等外强迫因子的变化对环状模年代际振幅的增强具有重要意义。     

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in PMIP2 simulations of the last glacial maximum

The increasing trend of the Southern Annular Mode （SAM） in recent decades has influenced climate change in the Southem Hemisphere （SH）.How the SAM will respond increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the future remains uncertain.Understanding the variability of the SAM in the past under a colder climate such as during the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM） might provide some understanding of the response of the SAM under a future warmer climate.We analyzed the changes in the SAM during the LGM in comparison to pre-industrial （PI） simulations using five coupled ocean-atmosphere models （CCSM,FGOALS,IPSL,MIROC,HadCM） from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project （PMIP2）.In CCSM,MIROC,IPSL,and FGOALS,the variability of the simulated SAM appears to be reduced in the LGM compared to the PI simulations,with a decrease in the standard deviation of the SAM index.Overall,four out of the five models suggest a weaker SAM amplitude in the LGM consistent with a weaker SH polar vortex and westerly winds found in some proxy records and model analyses.The weakening of the SAM in the LGM was associated with an increase in the vertical propagation of Rossby waves in southern high latitudes.     

与西澳州西南部冬季降水相联系的大气环流特征分析

西澳大利亚州西南部(SWWA)是西澳大利亚州首府Perth的所在地,也是西澳州政治、经济、文化、教育和旅游的中心.自20世纪中期以来,SWWA地区雨季降水持续减少.本文利用近60年的观测及再分析数据,分析了已知的影响澳大利亚降水的热带海洋模态:厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和ENSOModoki...     

Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation

The variability in the Southern Ocean(SO) sea surface temperature(SST) has drawn increased attention due to its unique physical features; therefore, the temporal characteristics of the SO SST anomalies(SSTA) and their influence on extratropical atmospheric circulation are addressed in this study. Results from empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the principal mode of the SO SSTA exhibits a dipole-like structure, suggesting a negative correlation between the SSTA in the middle and high latitudes, which is referred to as the SO Dipole(SOD) in this study. The SOD features strong zonal symmetry, and could reflect more than 50% of total zonal-mean SSTA variability. We find that stronger(weaker) Subantarctic and Antarctic polar fronts are related to the positive(negative) phases of the SOD index, as well as the primary variability of the large-scale SO SSTA meridional gradient. During December–January–February, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet shift toward the Antarctic due to changes in the SSTA that could be associated with a positive phase of the SOD, and are also accompanied by a poleward shift of the subtropical jet. During June–July–August, in association with a positive SOD, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet are strengthened, accompanied by a strengthened subtropical jet. These seasonal differences are linked to the differences in the configuration of the polar jet and the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere.     

月内尺度北半球环状模水平和垂直活动特征分析

采用李建平等定义的更好表征北半球环状模变化的指数,利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,从对流层的角度分析了北半球环状模在月内时间尺度上的相关环流的垂直和水平传播特征.结果表明,在水平方向上,温度异常在对流层,尤其是近地层,表现为由极区和高纬度地区向中低纬度地区强的南传特征,而在平流层则为由中低纬度地区向高纬度地区弱的...     

南半球环状模事件的准地转调整过程分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,分析了南半球环状模（SAM）事件生命过程中的准地转调整过程.由于SAM沿纬圈的水平尺度远远大于临界尺度罗斯贝变形半径,因此要求纬向风场在地转调整过程向气压场适应以达到地转平衡.研究结果表明,在纬向平均环流中,异常Ferrel环流强度的变化超前于SAM强度变化约2/16位相,异常Ferrel环流能够通过超前的整层大气质量的经向输运,改变中高纬度的质量分布装状况,导致中、高纬度地区间的位势高度梯度异常变化,而中、高纬度地区间的位势高度梯度异常发生变化就意味着SAM强度和位相发生变化;而当SAM强度和位相发生改变后,即中、高纬度地区南北方向上的位势高度梯度发生变化后,可破坏中纬度地区纬向风场与位势高度场之间的地转平衡,产生地转偏差;地转偏差产生后,又可驱动经向散度风场,造成Ferrel环流异常的变化,由此形成一个自我内部循环调整过程.     

南印度洋偶极子的特征及其与ENSO的关系

利用逐月OISST、ERSST及NCEP2表面风场等资料探讨了南印度洋偶极子(Southern Indian Ocean Dipole,SIOD)的结构特征、形成原因及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明:在南印度洋,偶极子形态的年际海表面温度异常在10—12月出现,次年2月达到极值,随后的4—6月消亡。SIOD的形成主要是风场、潜热通量和短波辐射通量起作用,混合层深度异常加厚或变浅有助于SIOD的形成。近30 a资料表明,SIOD的盛期超前ENSO 9~10个月,且具有季节锁相特征。20世纪70年代中期发生年代际气候突变后,SIOD与ENSO的相关关系显著增强。正SIOD事件之后一般都有El Nio事件发生,负SIOD事件之后都有La Nia事件发生。     

月内尺度南半球环状模对应的大气环流异常传播特征

本文利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料, 分析了南半球环状模 (Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode, 简称SAM) 在月内时间尺度 (sub-monthly timescales, 5～30天)上相关环流的垂直和水平传播特征。结果表明, 月内SAM对应的纬向风异常和温度异常具有明显自南极地区向南半球中纬度地区水平传播特征; 在垂直方向上, 纬向风异常为明显上传特征, 温度异常则具有在极地和高纬度地区明显上升、低纬度地区下沉的特点。月内SAM对应的南半球中高纬度地区上传信号表明, 在较短的月内时间尺度上, 对流层信号可以突破对流层顶, 上传达到平流层; 而月内SAM对应的整层南传信号表明, 南极地区环流变化超前于中高纬度地区, 因此在1～3周的月内时间尺度上, 极区信号可能对中高纬地区信号具有指示意义。     

The Springtime North Asia Cyclone Activity Index and the Southern Annular Mode

The relationship between the North Asia cyclone （NAC） activity and the Southern Annular Mode （SAM） is documented in this research. The definition of the NAC index （NACI） is based on the atmospheric relative vorticity in North Asia. The analysis yields a significant positive correlation between previous winter Southern Annular Mode index （SAMI） and spring NACI in the interannual variability, with a correlation coefficient of 0.51 during 1948-2000. Analysis of the NAC-related and SAM-related atmospheric general circulation variability demonstrates such a relationship. The study further reveals that when the winter SAM becomes strong, the springtime atmospheric convection in tropical western Pacific will intensify and the local Hadley circulation will be strengthened. As a result, the abnormal subsiding motion over South China makes the temperature gradient intensified in the low level and strengthens the jet in the high level, both of which are beneficial to the development of NAC activity.     

PRINCIPAL MODES OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC SSTA IN JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST AND THEIR RELATIONS TO ENSO AND SAM

The relationships of variations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the South Pacific with ENSO and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) are examined in the present article by employing the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1951 to 2006. Two principal modes of South Pacific SSTA are obtained using the EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis for austral winter (June, July and August). Our results suggest that EOF1 is closely related with ENSO and EOF2 links to SAM. The EOF1 varies largely on an interannual and EOF2 on a decadal scale. The time series of coefficients of EOF1 is highly correlated simultaneously with Nino3 index. However, the time series of coefficients of EOF2 is significantly correlated with the March-April-May mean SAM index. Both the EOF1 and EOF2 are found in significant correlation to summer precipitation over China. With higher-than-normal SSTs in the eastern South Pacific and simultaneously lower SSTs in the western South Pacific in June-July-August, the summertime rainfall is found to be less than normal in northern China. As displayed in EOF2 of SSTA, in years with lower-than-normal SSTs in mid-latitude southern and equatorial eastern Pacific and higher-than-normal SSTs in the equatorial middle Pacific in March-April-May, the summer precipitation in August tends to be more than normal in regions south of Yangtze River.     

南半球环状模气候影响的若干研究进展

南半球环状模是南半球热带外地区环流变率的主导模态。由于南半球环状模在空间上的大尺度特征,全球多个地区的气候均与南半球环状模的变化有关。探讨南半球环状模的气候影响,是近几十年来得到广泛关注并迅速发展的新方向。围绕这个方向,分别回顾了南半球环状模对南半球和北半球气候影响的研究进展,重点阐述了南半球环状模对中国气候影响的相关工作,并从长期变化尺度上,列举了南半球环状模与气候变化方面的研究成果。纵观近几十年的研究发现,针对南半球环状模对南半球的气候影响,目前已有比较系统的认识。总体而言,在年际尺度上,南半球环状模可以通过影响垂直环流和风暴轴的位置,改变表面风速对下垫面的热力和动力驱动作用,进而对南半球的海-气-冰耦合系统产生调控。这种调控多表现出纬向对称性,同时也存在纬向非对称的局地特征。在气候变化的尺度上,南半球环状模是过去半个世纪里南半球气候变化的主要驱动力之一。关于南半球环状模对北半球尤其是中国气候的影响问题,目前也取得了许多有意义的结果。例如,南半球环状模对东亚、西非、北美的夏季风和东亚冬季风均有作用,并且可以调控中国春季华南降水等。海-气耦合过程在南半球环状模对北半球气候的影响中扮演着重要角色,与南半球环状模信号的跨季节存储和由南半球向北半球的传播均有密切关系。但是,与南半球相比,南半球环状模对北半球气候影响的研究,还有许多问题值得深入讨论和研究：一是体现在对南半球环状模信号向北传播机制上的深入认识,二是将南半球环状模的信号作为因子在季节气候预测中的实践。     

IOD对ENSO影响中国夏季降水和气温的干扰作用

使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了"单纯"ENSO事件、"单纯"IOD事件以及有IOD事件伴随发生的ENSO事件对中国夏季降水和气温的影响.结果表明:"单纯"ENSO事件、"单纯"IOD事件对中国夏季降水和气温均有显著影响,当El Nino年有正IOD事件同时发生时,我国北方地区水汽增加,华北降水偏少现象得到抑制,我国大陆气温有所上升;当La Nina年有负IOD事件同时发生时,北方地区的水汽减少,不利于华北地区的降水,我国大陆气温有所下降.     

不同年代际背景下南半球环流变化对中国夏季降水的影响

利用1951～2008年NCEP再分析资料和中国夏季降水观测资料,分析了南半球环流的年代际变化特征以及在不同年代际背景下南极涛动(AAO)对中国东部夏季降水的影响.结果表明,20世纪70年代末,南半球环流发生了年代际变化,东南太平洋和南大西洋副高减弱,而马斯克林高压(南印度洋副高)增强,绕南极低压带加深.在此背景下,AAO由负位相转变为正位相,对中国夏季降水的影响也随之发生改变.在春季AAO偏强的情况下,1976年之前,长江以南地区和华北地区降水偏多,江淮流域降水偏少;而在1976年之后,从华南沿海一直到江淮流域降水都偏多,华北到东北地区降水偏少.这说明AAO对中国夏季降水的影响与年代际背景有关,1976年之后,AAO对中国夏季降水的影响增强,影响范围更加偏北.在当前海温预报因子作用减弱的情况下,AAO有可能成为中国夏季降水预测的一个重要预报因子.     

南半球环流异常对夏季西太平洋热带气旋生成的影响及其机理

利用中国气象局提供的热带气旋资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和美国NOAA向外长波辐射(OLR)等资料, 研究了西太平洋(125°E～150°E)夏季热带气旋生成频数多寡的可能机理, 讨论了南北半球环流系统共同作用的物理过程及其对热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, 简称ITCZ), 进而对热带气旋频数的影响, 并重点探论了从澳大利亚东侧位势高度异常到北半球西太平洋热带气旋频数响应的可能物理过程。研究发现: 澳大利亚东侧的环流异常和西太平洋热带气旋活动频数密切相关。南半球的澳大利亚东侧环流异常可能不完全是通过越赤道气流, 而主要是通过Rossby波的传播造成的南北半球遥相关作用, 影响北半球环流系统的, 进而影响菲律宾以东赤道辐合带对流活动的强弱, 导致西太平洋热带气旋生成频数的多寡差异。当澳大利亚东侧的位势高度为正距平时, 相应地在菲律宾以东地区也会出现正距平。即西太平洋副高偏强, 且偏南西伸, 抑制热带辐合带的对流活动发展, 使菲律宾以东的对流活动偏弱, 从而使热带气旋生成频数偏少。而当澳大利亚东侧的位势高度为负距平时, 相应地在菲律宾以东地区也会出现负距平。也即西太平洋副高偏弱, 且位置偏北。菲律宾以东地区对流活动偏强, 热带气旋生成频数偏多。另外, 西太平洋 (125°E～150°E) 以西的上游赤道西风也对热带气旋频数也有重要影响。具体表现为, 当90°E附近的越赤道气流强时, (5°N～15°N, 125°E～150°E)范围内的西风也随之加强, 从而使菲律宾以东对流活动加强, 西太平洋热带气旋频数增高。反之, 当该支越赤道气流弱时, 上游赤道西风随之偏弱, 从而造成菲律宾以东对流活动偏弱, 西太平洋热带气旋生成偏少。     

Relationships among the monsoon-like southwest Australian circulation,the Southern Annular Mode,and winter rainfall over southwest Western Australia

This study examines the relationships among the monsoon-like southwest Australian circulation (SWAC), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and southwest Western Australia winter rainfall (SWR), based on observed rainfall, reanalysis datasets, and the results of numerical modeling. By decomposing the SWAC into two components using a linear model, i.e. the component related to SAM (RSAM) and the component unrelated to SAM (SWACI*), we find it is the SWACI* that shows a significant influence on SWR. Similarly, it is the component of SAM associated with SWAC that exhibits an impact on SWR, whereas the component unrelated to SAM. A similar result is obtained in terms of the circulation associated with SWAC and the SAM. These facts suggest the SAM plays an indirect role in influencing SWR, and raise the possibility that SWAC acts as a bridge between the SAM and SWR, by which the SAM passes its influences onto SWR. This is due to the fact that the variations of SWAC are closely linked to the thermal contrast between land and sea across the southern Indian Ocean and southwest Australia. By contrast, the SAM does not significantly relate to this thermal structure, particularly for the component unrelated to SWAC. The variations of surface sea temperature over the southern Indian Ocean contribute to the favored rainfall circulation patterns. This finding is supported by the numerical modeling results. The strong coupling between SWAC and SWR may be instrumental for understanding the interactions between SWR and the southern Indian Ocean, and provides another perspective in examining the variations in SWR.     

The Connection between the Sea Surface Height Anomaly Preceding the Indian Ocean Dipole and Summer Rainfall in China

The sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) signals leading the fall Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) are investigated. The results suggest that, prior to the IOD by one year, a positive SSHA emerges over the western-central tropical Pacific(WCTP), which peaks during winter(January-February-March, JFM), persists into late spring and early summer(April-May-June, AMJ), and becomes weakened later on. An SSHA index, referred as to SSHA_WCTP, is defined as the averaged SSHA over the WCTP during JFM. The index is not only significantly positively correlated with the following-fall(September-October-November, SON) IOD index, but also is higher than the autocorrelation of the IOD index crossing the two different seasons. The connection of SSHA_ WCTP with following-summer rainfall in China is then explored. The results suggest that higher(lower) SSHA_ WCTP corresponds to increased(reduced) rainfall over southern coastal China, along with suppressed(increased) rainfall over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, North China, and the Xinjiang region of northwestern China. Mechanistically, following the preceding-winter higher(lower) SSHA_WCTP, the South Asia High and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are weakened(intensified), which results in the East Asian summer monsoon weakening(intensifying). Finally, the connection between SSHA_WCTP and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is analyzed. Despite a significant correlation, SSHA_WCTP is more closely connected with summer rainfall. This implies that the SSHA_WCTP index in the preceding winter is a more effective predictor of summer rainfall in comparison with ENSO.     

南半球对流层大气对热带太平洋-印度洋海温异常综合模的响应及其机制解释

利用NOAA SST及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 研究了热带太平洋—印度洋海温异常综合模和南半球对流层大气之间的遥相关模态并对其进行了机制解释。首先通过相关和合成分析, 给出了遥相关的空间模态, 结果表明: 北半球秋、冬季, 在南半球对流层大气存在和热带太平洋—印度洋海温异常综合模密切联系的遥相关作用中心, 该中心的分布构成一列明显的从赤道中太平洋出发, 最终到达非洲中南部及赤道印度洋的Rossby波列, 将赤道太平洋、印度洋与南半球中高纬度大气连接起来, 起到了类似“大气桥” 的作用。而单纯IOD和单纯ENSO均难以在南半球对流层激发出遥相关波列, 进一步证实了两者共同作用的影响。其次, 利用行星波能量传播理论对两者之间的遥相关进行了机制分析, 发现纬向波数为1～3的大气行星波的能量传播是热带太平洋—印度洋海温异常综合模与南半球对流层大气之间遥相关的一种可能的联系方式。     

热带印度洋海温异常与ENSO关系的进一步研究

用1955年1月-2001年12月美国Scripps海洋研究所的海温再分析资料、美国NCEP再分析资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)资料,讨论了热带太平洋ENSO与热带印度洋海温距平以及与印度洋偶极子(Dipole)的关系,研究结果发现:在垂直最大温度距平曲面(MTAL)上,热带印度洋海温距平分布存在着与热带太平洋ENSO密切相关的Dipole现象,其中最大的相关在太平洋ENSO 超前印度洋Dipole一个月.但是,热带印度洋Dipole的分布与Saij定义的位置略有不同,为东北西南向,它们分别在6°-10°S、65°-75°E(西印度洋)和2°-6°N、85°-95°E(东印度洋),它是赤道印度洋的一个主要海温距平系统.另外,在热带印度洋东北部与ENSO相关的海温距平是一个上下不一致的系统,该海温距平并没有伸展到海面,从海面到20-50 m的浅薄水层,则为与赤道西南印度洋相同符号的海温距平分布.因此在海面,海温距平不存在与ENSO有关的Dipole现象,赤道印度洋Dipole只存在于次表层以下,这是赤道印度洋Dipole与ENSO不同之处.这种赤道东北印度洋表层与赤道西南印度洋表层同符号的海温距平现象,有可能是海气热力过程如感热过程造成的.热带印度洋Dipole的周期要小于El Nio,一般为1-6 a.