Analysis on Anomalous Precipitation in Southern China During Winter Monsoons

The winters of 1997/1998 and 1998/1999,corresponding to El Ni(?)o and La Ni(?)a episodes,respectively, were two typical rain-abundant and-scarce seasons for the southern China.In order to understand the cause of the anomalous precipitation during the two winters,a comparative analysis technique has been employed to investigate the differences in general circulation and moisture transportation between the two seasons. The results show that the abundant rainfall during the winter of 1997/1998 was associated with the ENSO warm episode event,eastward shifted weak westerly trough/ridge,weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM),strengthened subtropical high,and presented two anti-cyclonic circulations over Hokkaido and the Philippine Sea,respectively,as well as one cyclonic circulation over the Yangtze River Basin in the anomalous wind fields of the lower troposphere.During the rain-scarce winter,however,the patterns of equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies and the circulation systems both in upper and lower levels were nearly the opposite of those during the rain-abundant winter.It has also been discovered that the water vapor over southern China during the winters came mainly from the southwesterly flow ahead of troughs in the southern branch of westerlies and the turning flow over the South China Sea-Indo-China Peninsula area;and the moisture transportation channels varied significantly with regard to height.The intensified flow in the southern branch of westerlies and the anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea during the winter of 1997/1998 were favorable for moisture transportation to mainland China,however the two moisture transportation streams were dramatically weakened during the winter of 1998/1999 due to weak westerly flow and the dominance of a cold high system in the lower level over the southeast coast of China.Such a significant inter-annual change of moisture transportation is a key factor resulting in the obvious difference in precipitation between the two winters.     

Strengthening of the Walker circulation under globalwarming in an aqua-planet general circulation model simulation

Most climate models project a weakening of the Walker circulation under global warming scenarios. It is argued, based on a global averaged moisture budget, that this weakening can be attributed to a slower rate of rainfall increase compared to that of moisture increase, which leads to a decrease in ascending motion. Through an idealized aqua-planet simulation in which a zonal wavenumber-1 SST distribution is prescribed along the equator, we find that the Walker circulation is strengthened under a uniform 2-K SST warming, even though the global mean rainfall–moisture relationship remains the same. Further diagnosis shows that the ascending branch of the Walker cell is enhanced in the upper troposphere but weakened in the lower troposphere. As a result, a "double-cell" circulation change pattern with a clockwise(anti-clockwise) circulation anomaly in the upper(lower) troposphere forms, and the upper tropospheric circulation change dominates. The mechanism for the formation of the "double cell" circulation pattern is attributed to a larger(smaller) rate of increase of diabatic heating than static stability in the upper(lower) troposphere. The result indicates that the future change of the Walker circulation cannot simply be interpreted based on a global mean moisture budget argument.     

Main Energy Paths and Energy Cascade Processes of the Two Types of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basin

Two types of persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs) over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basin were determined in a recent statistical study: type A, whose precipitation is mainly located to the south of the Yangtze River; and type B, whose precipitation is mainly located to the north of the river. The present study investigated these two PHRE types using a newly derived set of energy equations to show the scale interaction and main energy paths contributing to the persistence of the precipitation. The main results were as follows. The available potential energy(APE) and kinetic energy(KE) associated with both PHRE types generally increased upward in the troposphere, with the energy of the type-A PHREs stronger than that of the type-B PHREs(except for in the middle troposphere). There were two main common and universal energy paths of the two PHRE types:(1) the baroclinic energy conversion from APE to KE was the dominant energy source for the evolution of large-scale background circulations; and(2) the downscaled energy cascade processes of KE and APE were vital for sustaining the eddy flow, which directly caused the PHREs. The significant differences between the two PHRE types mainly appeared in the lower troposphere, where the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the eddy flow in type-A PHREs was from KE to APE, which reduced the intensity of the precipitation-related eddy flow; whereas, the conversion in type-B PHREs was from APE to KE, which enhanced the eddy flow.     

Water Budgets of Tropical Cyclones: Three Case Studies

In this study, three tropical cyclones (TCs) that passed through the Taiwan Strait were analyzed; our results show that precipitation is not directly related to the intensity of TCs. From the perspective of water budget, moisture flux convergence was dominant and contributed ～70% of the moisture for TC precipitation over the ocean and almost all over the land, especially inside the TC circulation. Their spatial distributions were also similar. Evaporation contributed ～30% of the moisture for precipitation over the ocean but changed little with the time. Moisture flux convergence can be divided into two parts: wind convergence and moisture advection. Moisture flux convergence was mostly due to wind convergence, which was dominant in the southwestern quadrants of the TCs. Moisture advection was located in the northern area, and becomes relatively important when the TCs approached the land. The moisture flux convergence and its two parts varied during TC movement, with strengthening and contraction of moisture convergence present near landfall. The vertical structure of the three TC cases all indicated that the moisture convergence was mainly confined to the lower atmosphere under 800 hPa and a weak divergence region was present in the middle troposphere around 550 hPa.     

Oscillation of Surface PM_(2.5) Concentration Resulting from an Alternation of Easterly and Southerly Winds in Beijing: Mechanisms and Implications

We used simultaneous measurements of surface PM_(2.5) concentration and vertical profiles of aerosol concentration,temperature, and humidity, together with regional air quality model simulations, to study an episode of aerosol pollution in Beijing from 15 to 19 November 2016. The potential effects of easterly and southerly winds on the surface concentrations and vertical profiles of the PM_(2.5) pollution were investigated. Favorable easterly winds produced strong upward motion and were able to transport the PM_(2.5) pollution at the surface to the upper levels of the atmosphere. The amount of surface PM_(2.5) pollution transported by the easterly winds was determined by the strength and height of the upward motion produced by the easterly winds and the initial height of the upward wind. A greater amount of PM_(2.5) pollution was transported to upper levels of the atmosphere by upward winds with a lower initial height. The pollutants were diluted by easterly winds from clean ocean air masses. The inversion layer was destroyed by the easterly winds and the surface pollutants and warm air masses were then lifted to the upper levels of the atmosphere, where they re-established a multi-layer inversion. This region of inversion was strengthened by the southerly winds, increasing the severity of pollution. A vortex was produced by southerly winds that led to the convergence of air along the Taihang Mountains. Pollutants were transported from southern–central Hebei Province to Beijing in the boundary layer. Warm advection associated with the southerly winds intensified the inversion produced by the easterly winds and a more stable boundary layer was formed. The layer with high PM_(2.5) concentration became dee-per with persistent southerly winds of a certain depth. The polluted air masses then rose over the northern Taihang Mountains to the northern mountainous regions of Hebei Province.     

Different Impacts of Madden–Julian Oscillation on Winter Rainfall over Southern China

Winter rainfall over southern China is usually enhanced when Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO) is active over the Indian Ocean, but it can be weakened under certain conditions. Here, the diversity of MJO impacts on winter rainfall and its mechanisms are explored by using scenarios of enhanced and suppressed rainfall anomalies over southern China when MJO is active over the Indian Ocean. The combined effects of low-frequency background moisture and intraseasonal winds are the major contributors to the different rainfall anomalies. Anomalous circulation in mid–high latitudes, especially on intraseasonal timescales, is almost opposite in the two scenarios, which can modulate the response of extratropical atmosphere to MJO heating and then induces the different circulations over southern China. In the enhanced scenario, mid–high latitudes of Eurasia and southern China are dominated by positive and negative sea level pressure anomalies, respectively. The southerly over southern China and the South China Sea induced by MJO heating promotes the anomalous moisture convergence and ascending motion over southern China, resulting in the enhanced rainfall. In the suppressed scenario, however, the circulation in mid–high latitudes does not favor rainfall over southern China and leads to the northerly response to MJO heating over southern China, which enhances moisture divergence and weakens rainfall over southern China.     

Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Strengthen the East Asia–Pacific Pattern during Summer

The contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)to the East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern during summer was investigated using the best track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets from 1979 to2018.The results showed that the TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)correspond to a strengthened EAP pattern:During the summers of strong convection over the tropical WNP,TC days correspond to a stronger cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP in the lower troposphere,an enhanced seesaw pattern of negative and positive geopotential height anomalies over the subtropical WNP and midlatitude East Asia in the middle troposphere,and a more northward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere.Further analyses indicated that two types of TCs with distinctly different tracks,i.e.,westward-moving TCs and northward-moving TCs,both favor the EAP pattern.The present results imply that TCs over the WNP,as extreme weather,can contribute significantly to summer-mean climate anomalies over the WNP and East Asia.     

The Propagation of Wave Packets and Its Relationship with the Subtropical Jet over Southern China in January 2008

The propagation of wave packets and its relationship with the subtropical jet was investigated for the period 26-29 January 2008 over southern China using ECMWF Interim re-analysis data.Wave packets propagated from the north to the south side of an upper front with eastward development along the upper front during this period.Due to the eastward development of propagation,the acceleration of geostrophic westerly winds shifted eastward along the front.There were two primary sources of the propagation of wave packets at around 30 N.The first was the temperature inversion layer below 500 hPa,and the second was baroclinic zones located along the polarward flank of the subtropical jet in the middle and upper troposphere.Most wave packets propagated horizontally from the baroclinic zones and then converged on the zero meridional gradients of zonal winds.     

The 2016 Summer Floods in China and Associated Physical Mechanisms:A Comparison with 1998

The characteristics of droughts and floods in China during the summers(May–August)of 2016 and 1998 were compared in great detail,together with the associated atmospheric circulations and external-forcing factors.Following results are obtained.(1)The precipitation was mostly above normal in China in summer 2016,with two main rainfall belts located in the Yangtze River valley(YRV)and North China.Compared with 1998,a similar rainfall belt was located over the YRV,with precipitation 100%and more above normal.However,the seasonal processes of Meiyu were different.A typical"Secondary Meiyu"occurred in 1998,whereas dry conditions dominated the YRV in2016.(2)During May–July 2016,the Ural high was weaker than normal,but it was stronger than normal in 1998.This difference resulted from fairly different distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)over the North Atlantic Ocean during the preceding winter and spring of the two years.(3)Nonetheless,tropical and subtropical circulation systems were much more similar in May–July of 2016 and 1998.The circulation systems in both years were characterized by a stronger than normal and more westward-extending western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),a weaker than normal East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),and anomalous convergence of moisture flux in the mid and lower reaches of the YRV.These similar circulation anomalies were attributed to the similar tropical SSTA pattern in the preceding seasons,i.e.,the super El Ni?o and strong warming in the tropical Indian Ocean.(4)Significant differences in the circulation pattern were observed in August between the two years.The WPSH broke up in August 2016,with its western part being combined with the continental high and persistently dominating eastern China.The EASM suddenly became stronger,and dry conditions prevailed in the YRV.On the contrary,the EASM was weaker in August 1998 and the"Secondary Meiyu"took place in the YRV.The Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)was extremely active in August 2016 and stayed in western Pacific for 25 days.It triggered frequent tropical cyclone activities and further influenced the significant turning of tropical and subtropical circulations in August2016.In contrast,the MJO was active over the tropical Indian Ocean in August 1998,conducive to the maintenance of a strong WPSH.Alongside the above oceanic factors and atmospheric circulation anomalies,the thermal effect of snow cover over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from the preceding winter to spring in 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998.This may explain the relatively stronger EASM and more abundant precipitation in North China in 2016than those in 1998.     

东北地区春季气温异常环流背景分析

利用东北地区99个测站近40年(1960～2000年)的春季3～5月气温资料与同期全球范围的温度场、高度场、风场资料,分析了东北地区春季冷、暖年的大气环流异常及要素场的空间分布特征。结果表明：冷春年．东北地区处于高度场的负距平中心,中层以上高纬地区有阻高或暖脊维持;东亚大槽指数的高值年对应东北高温,而低值年则对应东北低温;冷、暖春年的温度场的垂直分布十分深厚,冷春年东北地区主要受偏北气流影响,从地面到对流层顶均处于温度负距平中心内,纬向风在东北地区呈正距平分布,西风带势力较强,暖春年则相反。     

Observational Subseasonal Variability of the PM2.5 Concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

It is still not well understood if subseasonal variability of the local PM_2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is affected by the stratospheric state. Using PM_2.5 observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, the evolution of the air quality in BTH during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is explored. The subseasonal variability of the PM_2.5 concentration after the SSW onset is evidently enhanced. Stratospheric circumpolar easterly anomalies lasted for 53 days during the January–February 2021 SSW with two evident stratospheric pulses arriving at the ground. During the tropospheric wave weakening period and the intermittent period of dormant stratospheric pulses, the East Asian winter monsoon weakened, anomalous temperature inversion developed in the lower troposphere, anomalous surface southerlies prevailed, atmospheric moisture increased, and the boundary layer top height lowered, all of which favor the accumulation of pollutant particulates, leading to two periods of pollution processes in the BTH region. In the phase of strengthened East Asian winter monsoon around the very beginning of the SSW and another two periods when stratospheric pulses had reached the near surface, opposite-signed circulation patterns and meteorological conditions were observed, which helped to dilute and diffuse air pollutants in the BTH region. As a result, the air quality was excellent during the two periods when the stratospheric pulse had reached the near surface. The increased subseasonal variation of the regional pollutant particulates after the SSW onset highlights the important role of the stratosphere in the regional environment and provides implications for the environmental prediction.     

冬季华南准静止锋的结构和类型特征研究

利用12年(2000～2011年)逐日的FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)分析资料和逐日的中国站点降水资料, 定义了一个冬季华南准静止锋强度指数, 并根据该指数挑选出强准静止锋事件, 研究了强事件的结构特征、环流分型及其与降水的关系。结果表明:冬季强准静止锋事件多发于1、2月, 其发生频次在近12年里呈现明显上升趋势。强准静止锋锋区表现为等假相当位温线、等温线的密集带, 但是锋区湿度变化不明显, 并有明显逆温, 锋区由南北风辐合构成, 上升气流主要位于锋区上部, 纬向有两个次级环流与锋区相对应, 伴随正相对涡度和水汽通量辐合。根据850 hPa风场在锋区的辐合情况, 强准静止锋可分为北风辐合型、南北风辐合型、南风辐合型三种类型。在这三种类型中, 北风辐合型对应的北方冷空气最强, 华南降水最少;南风辐合型对应的南支槽最活跃, 华南降水最多;南北风辐合型介于两者之间。冬季华南准静止锋与冬季华南降水有一定相关, 在强准静止锋的背景下, 降水偏多时, 锋区低层的水汽通量辐合和上升运动偏强, 华南处于偏强南支槽前。     

青藏高原地表位涡密度强迫对2008年1月中国南方降水过程的影响Ⅰ:资料分析

位涡外部源汇是驱动大气环流的原动力。文中详细介绍了地表位涡制造和位涡密度强迫的联系,讨论了不同坐标系中位涡密度方程的特点及其在应用中应当注意的问题。还以2008年初南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害为例,探讨了青藏高原地表位涡密度强迫及东传对下游地区对流性天气发生的影响,拟由此揭示青藏高原位涡密度强迫激发中国东部激烈天气发生的一种新机制。伴随着青藏高原地表正位涡密度的东传,下游地区对流层中高层出现纬向正绝对涡度平流,气旋性环流增强,从而促使低空南风发展,为南方地区提供充沛的水汽条件。另外,南风的增强有利于低空经向负绝对涡度平流的加强,从而使南方地区高、低空形成绝对涡度平流随高度增大的大尺度环流背景,有利于上升运动的发展。上升运动的加强又促进低空南风气流的增强,使高、低空绝对涡度平流随高度增大的环流背景进一步增强,最终导致降水的产生。      

青藏高原冬季1月绕流的变化特征及其对中国气候的影响

利用1979～2019年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国地面基本气象要素日值数据集（V3.0）的气温和降水资料,首先定义了客观表征冬季青藏高原南北两支绕流变化的指数,然后分析了其不同的变化特征,并采用相关分析、合成分析等方法初步研究了青藏高原南北两支绕流异常变化对中国气温和降水的影响机制。主要结果有:（1）青藏高原冬季北支绕流和南支绕流之间呈显著的负相关;北支（南支）绕流强、南支（北支）绕流弱时,对流层中低纬度地区从高原西部到我国东部沿岸为一个大范围的异常反气旋式（气旋式）环流系统,500 hPa高原的中部为一个异常反气旋（气旋）环流中心。（2）青藏高原冬季南北两支绕流的变化对中国冬季天气气候有显著影响。当青藏高原北支绕流强（弱）时,中国除东北是气温偏低（高）、降水偏多（少）外,河套、青藏高原及长江以南则是气温偏高（低）、降水偏少（多）;当南支绕流强（弱）时,中国气温普遍偏低（高）,东北及新疆北部是降水偏少（多）,南方大部分地区是降水偏多（少）。（3）分析高原绕流异常变化对中国天气气候的影响机制表明:当青藏高原北支绕流强、南支绕流弱时,中国东部35°N以北的对流层中都是异常西北风,35°N以南都是异常东北风,受高原异常纬向绕流影响,对流层大气为明显的“正压结构”;相应的对流层底层从南到北为一致的异常西南风,850 hPa以上35°N的之间为反气旋式切变和下沉运动异常,300 hPa以下异常偏暖,这些条件加强了下沉增温,导致中国东部气温偏高、降水偏少。当青藏高原南支绕流强、北支绕流弱时,对流层中的纬向风异常则为明显的“斜压特征”,异常西风呈现为从对流层低层到高层、低纬度到高纬度的倾斜的带状特征,其下方自华南近地面到华北200 hPa的“三角形”状异常东风,配合相应的经向风异常和华南到华北的异常上升运动,低层为“三角形”状的异常冷气团向南切入到中国南海,中上层为异常偏暖的西南气流在冷气团上自南向北爬升到中高纬度地区,导致中国大范围的气温异常偏低、降水偏多。     

成都地区2012年PM10污染过程气象条件分析

利用PM10日平均值统计资料、NCEP 2.5°×2.5°分析资料以及温江站探空资料,针对2012年发生在成都的13次PM10典型污染过程进行了环流背景、动力条件、稳定度条件以及水汽条件的分析.结果表明：（1）PM10典型污染过程多发生在南支波动较弱的环流型下,我省受偏西气流或西北气流控制.（2）大气中低层垂直运动较弱,低层为弱辐合,辐合层次较低,不利于污染物的水平和垂直扩散.（3）对流层中下层中常有逆温层或等温层存在,大气热力状态较稳定.（4）大气多为上干下湿的状态,湿层较浅薄.     

中国北方季风区盛夏典型雨型的大气环流背景和海表温度演变特征

利用中国北方季风区46站盛夏降水观测资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、合成分析和相关分析等方法,将盛夏北方季风区划分为4类雨型:A型全区一致偏多、B型全区一致偏少、C型华北偏多东北偏少和D型华北偏少东北偏多,并对比分析了四类雨型同期大气环流和前期至同期海温演变特征的差异,以探讨其形成机制及前期预测信号.结果表明:四...     

Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

On the Connection between Upper Atmospheric Dynamics and Tropospheric Parameters: Correlations between Mesopause Region Winds and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The middle- and high-latitude stratospheric and mesospheric wind field in winter is dominated by the stratospheric polar vortex, which reaches up into the mesopause region and leads to westerly winds there in winter. The tropospheric mean winter wind field is also connected with the stratospheric polar vortex, which thus can be considered as extending from the lower up to the upper atmosphere. We found that the January and February zonal winds of the mesopause region, as measured at the Collm Observatory of the University of Leipzig, are closely connected with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which can be considered as a measure for part of the northern hemispheric mean circulation in the Atlantic and Europe domain, since it influences the circulation over that domain. The NAO itself is considered to be a measure for Central Europe winter winds and temperatures, since large NAO indices are connected with stronger westerlies in Central Europe. Thus, the mesopause region winds are also positively correlated to the Central European winter surface temperatures.