BUILDING UPON THE FOUNDATIONS OF GENTRIFICATION: INNER-CITY HOUSING DEVELOPMENT IN AUSTRALIA IN THE 1990s

In three recent papers, Bourne has suggested that the rate of gentrification in Canadian cities will decline, for both demand and supply reasons, notwithstanding economic recovery in the mid- 1990s. This prognosis for Canadian cities is so much at odds with the activity currently being generated in the upper-income housing markets at the center of the five largest Australian cities that it invites further investigation. Evidence is presented of recovery in the inner-suburban terrace housing submarket, and what began as countercyclical investment in the Australian equivalent of the loft-conversion and condominium submarkets. This latest phase of residential revitalization in the inner city heralds a trend to higher-value, high-rise living at the center of Australian cities. By the early 1990s enough Australians had become conditioned to inner-area living to provide optimism about the underlying demand, while the projected yields brought condominium development into the realm of financial feasibility. But concerted government action also was necessary to prime the core-area market for residential project development at the time (1991–1993). This raises a series of interesting questions about the advisability of state governments pursuing a property-led development strategy in recovery when the Anglo-American experience suggests that it might be short-lived at best. Lastly, some consideration is given to the implications for gentrification research and theory of possible divergence through the 1990s in the experience of North American and Australian cities.     

沿黄河地带——我国国土开发布局轴线

沿黄河地带是我国重要能源和金属资源富集区,发挥组合资源优势,强化以水资源为特色的复合轴线的作用,发展多元主导工业部门,构成大范围线状分布和小范围点状集中相结合的点轴系统,进一步完善我国沿海、沿江、沿黄三大经济开发轴线的互补格局。     

中国三大都会经济区的演变及其发展战略

我国沿海地区特别是主要入海河流的三角洲上的城市,乃近代发展最迅速的城市。1978年改革开放以来,全球经济一体化更为这些城市注入了新的动力。围绕着北京、上海和香港等核心城市,近年来已形成三个不同程度的外向型都会经济区。过往20年来,它们在外贸、外资、经济发展及城市化速度方面均领先全国。因此对这些都会经济区的功能特点和形成机制进行研究,是我国区域发展规划的重要前提。同时都会经济区亦是我国城市化二元体中有关大城市群或都市连绵带式的城市化的重要内容     

航空客运业与区域经济互动的时空维度 ——以长三角地区为例

以长三角地区为例,使用GW相关分析、EOF分析和空间相关性分析方法,基于2005-2018年的航空客运业和经济发展统计数据,对区域内航空客运业与经济发展两者之间互动状况的时空维度进行研究.结果发现:长三角地区航空客运业与区域经济之间互动关联呈现逆"核心—外围"的圈层分布特征.受上海"虹吸效应"影响,位于长三角核心圈层的...     

Visualising 30 Years of Population Density Change in Australia’s Major Capital Cities

ABSTRACT

This study uses a novel spatial approach to compare population density change across cities and over time. It examines spatio-temporal change in Australia’s five most populated capital cities from 1981 to 2011, and documents the established and emerging patterns of population distribution. The settlement patterns of Australian cities have changed substantially in the last 30 years. From the doughnut cities of the 1980s, programs of consolidation, renewal and densification have changed and concentrated population in our cities. Australian cities in the 1980s were characterised by sparsely populated, low density centres with growth concentrated to the suburban fringes. ‘Smart Growth’ and the ‘New Urbanism’ movements in the 1990s advocated higher dwelling density living and the inner cities re-emerged, inner areas were redeveloped, and the population distribution shifted towards increased inner city population densities. Policies aimed at re-populating the inner city dominated and the resultant changes are now visible in Australia’s five most populated capital cities. While this pattern has been reported in a number of studies, questions remain regarding the extent of these changes and how to analyse and visualise them across urban space. This paper reports on a spatial method which addresses the limitations of changing statistical boundaries to identify the changing patterns in Australian cities over time and space.     

中美城市郊区化发展比较研究

20世纪美国城市经历了普遍的郊区化过程,深刻地重构了美国经济和社会结构。分析美国郊区化的发展历程、原因和影响;在探讨中国城市郊区化的特征和机制基础上,与美国郊区化进行比较。美国郊区化主要从20世纪20年代开始产生,经历了4个发展阶段,其动力机制主要是收入的提高、交通技术进步、小汽车的广泛使用、公共政策、电信技术的发展等,美国郊区化促进了美国都市区的发展,并造就了美国战后经济高速发展的同时,但也带来了一系列的社会问题,如空间不匹配、内城衰败等问题;中国城市郊区化开始发生于20世纪80年代,至今可以分为两个发展阶段,中国城市郊区化是在全球化、市场化、分权化的转型背景下发生和发展的,在具有郊区化一般规律的同时,与美国郊区化在发生背景、动力机制、影响等方面不同。未来中国城市郊区化将加速发展,应该吸取美国郊区化的经验教训,促进中国城市合理发展。     

区域城镇空间格局的识别方法及案例分析

通过分析城镇之间的空间关系,探讨了区域城镇空间格局的定量化识别方法。该方法包含3个步骤：一是通过人口、产业或交通优势度的分析,识别具有较大发展潜力的城市、城镇或城镇集聚区（空间节点）。二是以空间节点之间的交通联系及其未来发展变化情况为依据,利用多维尺度分析方法展现城镇之间的空间关系（空间联系）。三是确定城镇空间影响范围,进而确定城镇空间体系的整体架构（空间圈域）。以广西西江流域7个地级市为例,运用该方法,分析了2000年以来广西西江黄金水道及区域性综合交通体系的建设对区域城镇体系产生的影响,对未来城镇空间格局的变化进行了预测。     

Reviewing the Guayana project: Lifetime migration to and from Bolivar state,Venezuela, 1950–2001

By the mid‐twentieth century the population and economic resources in many developing economies had become concentrated in the capital city. Planned industrial cities became an important mechanism to encourage more balanced urban systems as well as development in peripheralized regions. Venezuela boasts one of the most impressive planned industrial cities, Ciudad Guayana, constructed in 1959 in the resource rich but inaccessible Bolivar state in the southeast. This paper summarizes the lifetime migration to and from Bolivar state for the years 1950, 1971 and 2001. Whereas the majority of lifetime migrants originated from the neighbouring northeast region in 1950 and 1971, by 2001 more migrants arrived from the capital region. For lifetime outmigrants, the destination states became more diverse and less focused on the capital region. Gender ratios of lifetime migrants to and from Bolivar became more equitable as women became more prominent in migration flows. The level of urban primacy in Venezuela declined substantially after 1971 as the country became more internally integrated, although this more equitable distribution of the country's population may not have been solely a result of the creation of the growth pole, but a result of wider economic development.     

China＇s economic development stage and its spatiotemporal evolution： A prefectural-level analysis

As important mechanisms of regional strategy and policy,prefecture-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China’s economy.However,little research has grasped the essence of the economic development stage and the spatio-temporal evolution process at the prefecture level;this may lead to biased policies and their ineffective implementations.Based on Chenery’s economic development theory,this paper identifies China’s economic development stages at both national and prefectural levels.Both the Global Moran I index and the Getis-Ord Gi* index are employed to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of China’s economic development from 1990 to 2010.Major conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) China’s economic development is generally in the state of agglomeration.It entered the Primary Production Stage in 1990,and the Middle Industrialized Stage in 2010,with a ’balanced-unbalanced-gradually rebalanced’ pattern in the process.(2) China’s rapid economic growth experienced a spatial shift from the coastal areas to the the inland areas.Most advanced cities in mid-western China can be roughly categorized into regional hub cities and resource-dependent cities.(3) Hot spots in China’s economy moved northward and westward.The interactions between cities and prefectures became weaker in Eastern China,while cities and prefectures in Central and Western China were still at the stage of individual development,with limited effect on the surrounding cities.(4) While the overall growth rate of China’s economy has gradually slowed down during the past two decades,the growth rate of cities and prefectures in Central and Western China was much faster than those in coastal areas.(5) Areas rich in resources,such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,have become the new hot spots of economic growth in recent years.For these regions,however,more attention needs to be paid to their unbalanced industrial structures and the lagging social development against the backdrop of the rapid economic growth,driven predominantly by the exploitation of resources.     

Semi-urbanization and evolving patterns of urbanization in China: Insights from the 2000 to 2010 national censuses

Based on the prefecture-level data of the 2000 and 2010 national censuses, the spatial evolution of China’s semi-urbanization is analyzed in this study. The stages of urbanization are re-examined by considering semi-urbanization. Nine types of urban development are presented according to the relations between semi-urbanization and urbanization, and China’s urbanization is divided into five stages, namely, high incoordination, incoordination, low coordination, coordination, and high coordination. Results show that China’s semi-urbanization rate varies significantly from one area to another; its order in 2010 from the highest to the lowest value was as follows: east, middle, west, and northeast. Urbanization and semi-urbanization rates in inland cities increase much faster than those in coastal cities. In addition, semi-urbanization displays a spatial pattern similar to that of urbanization across China, with the sole exception of the northeastern region. Through a spatial autocorrelation analysis, the spatial concentration of semi-urbanization is determined to be increasing. High-value concentration areas are expanding in the coastal east, whereas low-value concentration areas are growing in the northeast. Lastly, the evolution of China’s urbanization model suggests a weakening trend of coordination between urbanization and semi-urbanization over the studied decade. Semi-urbanization can be viewed as a special production of China’s hukou system, which restricts the permanent settlement of migrants in cities. As such, China’s semi-urbanization trend is expected to exhibit a reversed U-shaped pattern as urbanization and citizenization develop.     

基于生境质量的城市增长边界研究——以长三角地区为例

基于“生态优先”理念,提出一种利用生境质量评估策略的城市增长边界划定方法。结合ArcGIS和InVEST模型,通过综合评估生境自身及其在威胁情境下的质量,模拟各市独立规划、建设用地指标再分配及区域一体化发展的三类建设用地扩张情景,分别划定2024和2034年的长三角地区城市增长边界。结果表明：研究区生境质量总体呈南高北低格局,平均生态系统服务价值密度为10 770.604元/（hm²·a）,高质生境位于西南地区;根据指标再分配及一体化发展情景模拟的2024年研究区建设用地总量分别为10 583.273 km2和10 489.090 km2,2034年达到13 603.535 km2和13 252.370 km2;模拟的建设用地集中在东部沿海地区,并向北部及环杭州湾区域拓展;建设用地指标再分配能从整体上减少建设用地对优质生境的占用,区域一体化发展则能进一步降低城市发展造成的生态压力。     

国家主体功能区战略背景下东北地区城市经济增长的动力与路径——基于城市暂住人口视角

经济、人口、资源与环境的协调发展是新型城市化战略的核心,也是国家主体功能区规划的重要内容。鉴于各类主体功能区在东北地区并存,考察其经济增长与城市化开发路径,可为全国提供较好借鉴。以东北地区城市暂住人口为切入点,探讨了城市暂住人口与经济增长相互影响的作用机制,进而构建暂住人口与经济增长联立方程,并使用东北地区34个地级城市的面板数据进行实证分析,考量以暂住人口吸纳与承载能力为标志的城市化潜力与经济增长的动力。研究表明:在国家主体功能区战略背景下,需充分尊重和考虑东北地区各类开发区域与城市的经济、社会、自然与生态状况,应通过中心城市产业结构调整、生态功能区人口迁出等途径进行集中均衡式的城市化开发,积极加快推进基本公共服务均等化和城市内部基础设施完善。     

内蒙古县域经济空间格局演化研究

采用ESDA的方法,运用ArcGIS10.0和GeoDa095i软件,选取1980年、1990年、2000年和2010年4个时间断面分析了自改革开放以来内蒙古县域经济空间格局演化的过程。结果表明：① 改革开放以来,内蒙古县域经济空间格局和经济增长空间格局都发生了巨大的变化,其热点区都由蒙东地区跃迁到蒙中和蒙西地区,蒙中“金三角”地区代替蒙东成为内蒙古经济发展的增长极,蒙东地区则变为经济冷点区。② 县域经济空间格局和经济增长空间格局都有明显的空间自相关性,且经济空间格局的空间自相关性越来越大。③ 内蒙古县域经济形成了经济水平相似（热点区、冷点区）的集中连片区,内蒙古东 、中、西部的经济差异越来越大。影响内蒙古县域经济空间格局演化的因素可以可分资源、历史文化、区位等内部基础性因素,以及市场、政策等外部驱动型因素。     

Population and environment in Australia: issues in the next half century

This paper considers the likely future population in Australia to 2050 and is cast within the context of environmental limitations, to which Griffith Taylor alerted the nation in the 1920s and 1930s, and for which he was vilified in several quarters. While acknowledging the relative accuracy of his long-range forecasts, the arguments here depart from environmental determinism, although varying sets of environmental ethics and values are considered in relation to Australia's global responsibilities and international commitments. It is argued that an increase in population to 26 million by 2050 will not place severe stresses on the physical environment, provided environmental and resource management strategies are put firmly in place, and if consumption and resource use practices are significantly modified. An ideological linkage exists between a resurgent Australian nationalism and a number of environmental perspectives, but one which rejects growth and biological diversity among humans while embracing environmentalism. This inward-looking nationalism–environmentalism is seen as harmful both to Australia's moral integrity as a nation, and in local and world citizenship.     

澳门产业结构调整及其远期发展目标

本文从分析澳门８０年代工业和本地生产总值不同变化趋势入手，指出澳门当前经济发展面临的主要问题是工业增长速度明显下降，进而分析其下降的原因，最后提出澳门产业结构调整及其远景发展目标。     

Planning for Peri-urban Agriculture: a geographically-specific,evidence-based approach from Sydney

Agriculture on the fringes of cities across the Global North is increasingly perceived as making an important contribution to urban sustainability. As Australian cities continue to expand and encroach on their peri-urban peripheries, there is rising concern about loss of farmland to housing. Such concerns are especially urgent in the Sydney Basin, due to population growth, and topographical and land-use constraints. Accounting for the Basin's farmlands, however, remains opaque, not unrelated to difficulties in acquiring reliable data on the area and value of Sydney's agricultural industries. The problem is not simply that there are no data available but rather that the nature of existing data is (often hotly) contested. Critical questions for urban planners therefore remain unanswered, including: is peri-urban agriculture as important as advocates suggest? Are metropolitan food supplies under threat? If peri-urban farmland is important, what should be done to preserve it? In collating and analysing existing Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and non-ABS data on Sydney agriculture between 1992 and 2011, we outline the need for more reliable and consistent longitudinal data to enable better planning for Sydney's farmland into the future. Notwithstanding limitations of available data sources, our findings reveal trends in Sydney Basin agriculture that invite debate on many assumptions about the nature of peri-urban agriculture. These findings emphasise the importance of geographically specific, evidence-based analysis as a basis for planning for peri-urban agriculture.     

资源型城市演化阶段识别及其发展特征

资源型城市作为一类特殊城市,发展过程具有明显的阶段性特征。本文以灯光影像等数据为基础,采用门槛面板模型、非参数估计等方法,从城市空间结构演化角度,对资源型城市发展阶段进行定量划分,并分析了不同发展阶段中心城区空间集聚对城市经济增长、城市转型的差异性特征,揭示了资源型产业对城市空间结构演变的作用以及资源型城市转型关键时间节点和政策着力点。结果表明：资源型城市空间相对分散,但不同资源类型城市之间存在较大差异;采掘业从业人员占比1.9%和31.0%可以作为资源型城市不同发展阶段的重要标志性指标;不同发展阶段中,社会经济要素在中心城区的集聚程度与城市经济增长的相关关系明显不同,成熟发展期成为资源型城市转型发展的重要转折期。     

Urban re-generations: afterword to special issue on the politics of urban greening in Australian cities

ABSTRACT

‘Urban re-generations' is written as an afterword to the special issue of Australian Geographer on ‘The Politics of Urban Greening in Australian Cities'. The collection prompts a deep questioning of reparative and regenerative work associated with greening, green spaces and green infrastructures. The climate-driven 2019-2020 bushfire crisis and COVID-19 have amplified the visibility of the more-than-human connectivity of our cities and the deep underlying structures of social and environmental inequity underpinning a variety of urban green spaces and agendas. Inspired by the articles in this special issue, the afterword explores how we might call back the grammars and practices of regeneration from their service to the neo-liberal, settler-colonial city and instead nurture reparative de-colonial practices that aid in the collaborative work of re-composing, becoming into better relation with, and working in modes of situated historical and cultural difference, with green and just cities.     

京津冀地区旅游经济增长的时空演化及影响因素

揭示区域旅游经济增长的时空演化特征并探究其影响因素有助于丰富区域旅游经济发展理论,也可为京津冀地区旅游协同发展政策的制定提供科学依据。在初步构建京津冀地区旅游经济增长时空演化研究框架及多因素分析模型的基础上,运用基尼系数、核密度曲线、双变量局域自相关等方法,从旅游空间的规模、等级和形态变化等方面考察京津冀地区2001—2019年旅游经济增长的空间格局及演化过程,并基于面板多元回归模型和空间计量模型对其影响因素进行深入剖析。结果表明：① 京津冀地区旅游经济增长的空间格局从双核心逐渐转为多核心,旅游区域中心城市和部分旅游节点城市逐步成为旅游经济增长的主要载体,京津冀旅游协同发展初见成效。② 京津冀地区旅游经济增长的时空演化过程大体可分为3个阶段：高速增长下的双核心极化缓解阶段;中速增长下的双核心向多核心转变阶段;快速增长下的多核心形成阶段。③ 影响京津冀地区旅游经济增长的主要因素有人均GDP、星级饭店的数量、到北京/天津高速公路距离、旅游发展政策和旅游大事件等,其中人均GDP对旅游经济增长有显著的空间溢出效应。④ 影响核心枢纽城市、旅游区域中心城市和节点城市的旅游经济增长因素有一定差异,星级饭店数量、旅游大事件和PM_2.5浓度对核心枢纽城市和旅游区域中心城市旅游经济增长有较大影响,城市道路面积、到北京/天津高速公路距离、旅游发展政策、旅游大事件、年末实有出租车数量、PM_2.5浓度等则是影响旅游节点城市旅游经济增长的主要因素。     

江苏沿海经济发展的区域差异及空间格局演变

以县域为基本单元,以GDP和人口为指标,运用绝对差异指标和相对差异指标等经典统计方法,以及可分解的泰尔指数和区域分离指数,分析了2002~2012年江苏省沿海经济发展差异的演变趋势和空间变化特征。研究结果表明：江苏沿海经济发展的绝对差异一直在不断扩大,相对差异基本呈缓慢缩小趋势。总体差异在波动中逐渐下降,其主要来源于区内差异,其中盐城区内差异贡献率最大。区域分离系数以2006年为拐点,呈倒“U”型变化特征,区域差异逐渐趋同。导致区域差异的原因主要是历史基础、区位条件和政策措施。空间结构的变化反映了政府发展战略的连续变化过程,体现了区域发展的非均衡性。