Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level

Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly and an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations, respectively. The main tools of the study are singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multi-channel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after postglacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62±0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations which have a trend consistent with the neighboring ones. We have identified two dominant time scales of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. RSLH data were interpolated along ocean coasts by latitudinal intervals of 5 or 10 degrees, depending on station density. Interannual variability was then examined by M-SSA in five regions: eastern Pacific (25°S–55°N at 10° resolution), western Pacific (35°S–45°N at 10°), equatorial Pacific (123°E–169°W, 6 stations), eastern Atlantic (30°S, 0°, and 30°N–70°N at 5°) and western Atlantic (50°S–50°N at 10°). Throughout the Pacific, we have found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2, 2.5–3 and 4–6 y. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-y low-frequency mode propagate poleward. There is a southward propagation of low-frequency modes in the western Pacific RSLH, between 35°N and 5°S, but no clear propagation in the latitudes further south. However, equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in the Southern Hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial modes at 10°N propagate westward. Strong and weak El Niño years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4–8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40–45°N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9–13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40°N–70°N and 10°N–50°N, respectively.     

Pre-monsoon surface pressure and summer monsoon rainfall over India

Summary The relationship between the surface air pressure field during the pre-monsoon months and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is analysed using climate data from 105 stations situated in Eurasia between 0°–60° N and 20°–100° E. Moreover, grid-point data for the whole northern hemisphere are used. Pressure during April over an area around 50° N and 35° E is found to show a significant negative correlation with the subsequent monsoon rainfall. During May the pressure over a large part of the study area south of 40° N shows a significant correlation with its highest value in the heat low region over Pakistan. It is assumed that monitoring of pressure variations over this region may be useful in predicting monsoon rainfall, particularly the rainfall during the first half of the season. Certain limitations of the climate data in this region are also discussed.With 5 Figures     

Fluctuations of snow accumulation in the Antarctic and sea level pressure in the Southern Hemisphere in the last 100 years

This paper summarizes the long-term fluctuations of snow accumulation in the Antarctic and analyzes its correlation with the sea level pressure (SLP) in the middle latitude (40°–50° S) of the Southern Hemisphere. Stratigraphic data which were compiled from studies on ice cores and snow-pits at eight stations in the Antarctic were used in the present study. It was found that the data concerning fluctuations in snow accumulation for East Antarctica showed correlations, whereas no such correlation was observed for the data from West Antarctica.This study shows possible relationships between snow accumulation in the Antarctic and SLP in the middle latitudes. The fluctuations of accumulation at South Pole, Dome C, Wilkes and South Ice Point show correlations with SLP over a large area in the 40°–50° S latitudinal zone. For the long-term fluctuations of SLP in the 40°–50 ° S latitudinal zone, a zonal fluctuation with wave number zero structure and a longitudinal variation of SLP anomalies due to their out-of-phase-fluctuation between the Pacific and the Indian Oceans were observed. The temporal scales for these fluctuations were found to be in the order of 20–30 years and 40–60 years, respectively. The influences of these two modes on the behaviour of snow accumulation in the Antarctic is also discussed.Now at Kitami Institute of Technology, Kitami, Hokkaido, Japan.     

Trends in global temperature

Statistical models consisting of a trend plus serially correlated noise may be fitted to observed climate data such as global surface temperature, the trend and noise representing systematic change and other variations, respectively. When such a model is fitted, the estimated character of the noise determines the precision of the estimated trend, and hence the precision of the estimate of the magnitude of the systematic change in the variable considered. The results of fitting such models to global temperature imply that there is uncertainty in the amount of temperature change over the past century of up to ± 0.2 °C, but that the change of around one half of a degree Celsius is significantly different from zero.The statistical models for climate variability also imply that the observed temperature data provide only imprecise information about the climate sensitivity. This is defined here as the equilibrium response of global temperature to a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The temperature changes observed to date are compatible with a wide range of climate sensitivities, from 0.7 °C to 2.2 °C. When data uncertainties are taken into account, the interval widens even further.     

A fast moving easterly wave of the West Africa troposphere

Summary This paper documents a tropospheric synoptic-scale wavelike disturbance over Northern Africa and the tropical Atlantic during summer, in the 3.–5.day band period, different from the African wave. It has a velocity of 10–12 degree longitude per day instead of 6–8, a slighter shorter period, i.e. 3.5 instead of 4.5 days. It is best seen between 5°–7° N whilst the African wave has its largest amplitude about 12° N. The data used are NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and radiosonde data.With 10 Figures     

Temporal and spatial variability of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans

Summary The objective of this study is to describe spatial and temporal patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The analysis domain extends from 40°S to 25°N and 50°W to 80°E, hence the tropical and most of the South Atlantic and central and western Indian Oceans. The investigation, covering the years 1948 to 1979, utilizes the COADS marine data set. Empirical orthogonal functions and spectral analysis are used to analyze SST fields.A major finding of this investigation is that SSTs vary coherently throughout most of the analysis domain. The greatest coherence is evident from 10°N to 30°S in the Atlantic and from 20°N to 35°S in the western Indian Ocean. Spectral analysis of regional time series shows that throughout this region the time scale of 5–6 years is the dominant one in the fluctuations; this is also the case for the Southern Oscillation and for equatorial rainfall. SST variations are roughly in-phase within each ocean and the two oceans are roughly in-phase with each other, i.e., the lags which exist are much smaller than the dominant time scale of the fluctuations. The SST anomalies appear to propagate eastward from NE Brazil; the eastern Atlantic lags the western by two to six months and the Indian Ocean lags the western Atlantic by four to eight months.With 15 Figures     

Winter precipitation variability and large-scale circulation patterns in Romania

Summary The spatial and temporal variability of winter precipitation and its links to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in Romania are examined. The data set is composed of observed rainfall at 30 meteorological stations during the 1961–1996 period. The large-scale field is represented by the observed geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) over the same period, covering the latitudinal belt between 20° N–90° N (resolution 2.5°×2.5°).The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) is applied to detect inhomogeneities in the data, and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests are used in order to identify trends and change points in the winter precipitation time series. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique is used for data reduction in order to highlight the basic patterns of rainfall variability in Romania. The covariance map between precipitation EOF time series (PCs) and the Z500 field, as well as the correlation coefficients between the PCs and circulation indices are calculated in order to identify the influence of large-scale circulation patterns on winter precipitation in Romania.A significant decreasing trend is identified in winter precipitation with a downward shift in winter 1969/1970, most significant from a statistical point of view in the extra-Carpathian region. This change seems to be real since the SNHT test does not reveal any inhomogeneity during the period tested. Significant relationships are found between winter precipitation variability in Romania and the large-scale circulation pattern, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the blocking phenomenon in the Atlantic-European sector. The positive phase of the NAO and the reduction in blocking activity could be one of the causes of the decrease in winter precipitation in Romania.     

Zonal circulation indices, 500 hPa April ridge position along 75° E and Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Statistical relationships

Summary This paper presents an examination of the statistical relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over all India, and two sub-regions (north west India and peninsular India) and the indices of mid-latitude (35° to 70° N) zonal circulation at 500 hPa level, over different sectors of the hemisphere, based on 19 years (1971–1989) data. The results indicate that summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) over India shows; (i) a significant and direct relationship with the strength of the zonal circulation index during concurrent July over the sector 90° E to 160° E. (ii) a significant inverse relationship with the strength of the zonal index during the previous April over the sector 160° E to 45° W and a similar relationship with the whole northern hemisphere and (iii) a significant and direct relationship with the frequency of the zonal index during the previous January over the sector 45° W to 90° E.Significant relationships are also observed between the zonal circulation indices of the above mentioned months and sectors with the 500 hPa ridge location in April at 75° E over India.With 4 Figures     

基于通用热气候指数的四川省舒适度区划研究

利用四川省156个国家气象站1980～2020年逐日观测资料、2018～2020年逐时观测资料和3DCloudA总云量格点数据,计算逐日和逐时通用热气候指数（Universal Thermal Climate Index,UTCI）,以UTCI介于9～26℃为室外热环境舒适状态的判定标准,在统计分析各站点年均UTCI值、年均舒适日数、月均舒适日数及日均舒适小时数的基础上,研究了四川地区舒适度区划。结果表明：盆地大部分地区为夜间舒适和春秋舒适;阿坝州南部、甘孜州西部和凉山州北部为日间舒适和夏季舒适;攀西地区南部总体呈现全天和冬季舒适的特征;甘孜州北部、中部和阿坝州北部均表现为人体不舒适的特征。     

Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature

Summary Using terrestrial observations of shelter-height air temperature and shipboard measurements, a global climatology of mean monthly surface air temperature has been compiled. Data were obtained from ten sources, screened for coding errors, and redundant station records were removed. The combined data base consists of 17 986 independent terrestrial station records and 6 955 oceanic grid-point records. These data were then interpolated to a 0.5° of latitude by 0.5° of longitude lattice using a spherically-based interpolation algorithm. Spatial distributions of the annual mean and intra-annual variance are presented along with a harmonic decomposition of the intra-annual variance.With 7 Figures     

Temperature above the surface layer

Three published data sets of upper-air global temperatures, two from radiosondes and one from satellites, are examined and compared for the lower stratosphere and troposphere.The global lower stratosphere exhibits a downward trend for the past 16+ years of -0.53 °C (-0.33 °C per decade). Since the 1960's (using radiosondes before 1979 which are subject to known and unknown inhomogeneities) it is likely that there has been a downward trend of about the same magnitude. Significant issues of the stratospheric radiosonde data are: (1) that the long-term time series is biased toward spurious cooling; and (2) the earliest years of Angell display unrealistic variability. Inhomogeneities in satellite data due to orbit drifting and instrument calibration are examined.The tropospheric temperature has shown a downward trend of -0.11 °C since 1979 (-0.07 °C per decade). Beginning in earlier years, (relying only on radiosonde data before 1979) the estimated warming trend since the late 1950's is +0.07 to +0.11 °C per decade.Tropospheric and surface temperature anomalies are compared. There is concern that the disproportionate representation of extratropical continents, with their high temperature variance, may bias any long term global surface trend toward a maximum-possible value than would be calculated had all regions (including those with much lower responsiveness) been monitored.     

Reconstruction of Nineteenth Century Summer Temperatures in Norway by Proxy Data from Farmers'Diaries

Proxy data from five farmers; diaries in the Møre, Dovre and Trøndelag regions in central Norway were used for climatic reconstruction purposes. The method chosen was "simple linear regression analysis" with the start of the grain harvest (barley or oats) as predictor and summer temperature (May – August) as predictand. Overlapping periods with modern instrumental observations (starting 1858 or later) were used for calibration of the model. The model was tested on independent data by establishing the regression on one half of the overlapping period and applying the regression on the other half. The standard deviation in the residuals varied from 0.3°C to 0.7°C and the biases of the mean values from –0.3°C to +0.3°C. Climatic reconstructions were established for the early- and mid-nineteenth century summer temperature, i.e. during the last part of what has come to be regarded as the "Little Ice Age", in this article considered to end around 1880.By use of the proxy data model, huge inhomogeneities of the "classical" Trondheim series were detected, the early nineteenth century part of the series evidently being too warm. The inhomogeneity was removed by use of adjustment terms. The adjusted series indicates that in the Trondheim region the summer temperature during the last part of the "Little Ice Age" phase was about 1°C lower than the latest 60 years. This is in serious contradiction to the classical Trondheim series.     

Wind direction in Southern Sweden 1740–1992: Variation and correlation with temperature and zonality

Summary Wind direction variation in Lund, s. Sweden is investigated for the period 1740–1992. Around 1860 the initial bidirectional (W—E) continental flow pattern changed to a combined uni- (W) and bi-directional pattern, which has increased the maritimity; in recent decades, an exceptionally high W'ly influence is present. The process toward a higher degree of maritimity has not been a strictly linear one; the 1820's–1830's and the 1940's–1960's are exceptions from this generalization. Trends of declining N'ly and NE'ly winds are accompanied by increased frequencies of SE'ly and SW'ly winds. From the wind direction data, using multiple regression analysis, hindcasting models for temperature and zonality (zonality index P_45°N-P_65°N in the sector 5° E-40° E) are established for the time when such meteorological observations are unavailable (i.e. before 1860; temperature and before 1899; zonality). The accuracy of monthly zonality index estimations varies betweenR = 0.76–0.93; temperatureR = 0.35–0.80. Models for January temperature and zonality are the most reliable ones. Presence of a very low zonal index in January characterised the mid 18th century (average 4 hPa compared to the current value 10hPa) which resulted in colder winters, according to the January estimate, 1.5 °C colder than present.With 10 Figures     

A study on flow field and heat exchange anomalies on tropical pacific surface in the El Nino and La Nina events

Summary In this paper, based on the 2°×2° grid data COADS from 1950–1987 the flow field and heat exchange anomalies on the (11°S–11°N, 120° E-80°W) tropical Pacific surface (TPS) have been studied in El Nino and La Nina events. During El Nino, the zonal pressure gradient and trade winds decreased on the TPS, the tropical convergence strengthened on TPS, especially on the central TPS, the sensible and latent heat exchange increased, the net longwave radiation and incident solar radiation decreased and the net gain (loss)of heat reduced (increased) on the central and eastern TPS. During La Nina the results were opposite. Finally, two feedback mechanisms which include the dynamic, thermal and hydrological processes during El Nino and La Nina have been summarized and a conceptive model for El Nino-La Nina cycle is given. An estimated period for the El Nino-La Nina cycle is obtained.     

The solubility and behaviour of acid gases in the marine aerosol

The following Henry's law constants (K _H/mol²kg^-2atm^-1) for HNO₃ and the hydrohalic acids have been evaluated from available partial pressure and other thermodynamic data from 0°–40°C, 1 atm total pressure: HNO ₃ , 40°C–5.85×10⁵; 30°C–1.50×10⁶; 25°C–2.45×10⁶; 20°C–4.04×10⁶; 10°C–1.15×10⁷; 0°C–3.41×10⁷. HF, 40°C–3.2; 30°C–6.6; 25°C–9.61; 20°C–14.0; 10°C–32.0; 0°C–76. HCl, 40°C–4.66×10⁵; 30°C–1.23×10⁶; 25°C–2.04×10⁶; 20°C–3.37×10⁶; 10°C–9.71×10⁶; 0°C–2.95×10⁷. HBr, 40°C–2.5×10⁸; 30°C–7.5×10⁸; 25°C–1.32×10⁹; 20°C–2.37×10⁹; 10°C–8.10×10⁹; 0°C–3.0×10¹⁰. HI, 40°C–5.2×10⁸; 30°C–1.5×10⁹; 25°C–2.5×10⁹; 20°C–4.5×10⁹; 10°C–1.5×10¹⁰; 0°C–5.0×10¹⁰. Simple equilibrium models suggest that HNO₃, CH₃SO₃H and other acids up to 10x less soluble than HCl displace it from marine seasalt aerosols. HF is displaced preferentially to HCl by dissolved acidity at all relative humidities greater than about 80%, and should be entirely depleted in aged marine aerosols.     

Climatological and structural differences between wet and dry troughs over southern Africa in the early summer

Summary Differences in the convective potential of troughs passing over the plateau of southern Africa in the early summer are assessed using operational synoptic weather data and radiosonde time-height sections. Wet and dry trough cases are chosen on the basis of the intensity and distribution of rainfall, sharp thermodynamic changes across the plateau and the passage of a geopotential wave. Composite differences are computed and indicate a high-low geopotential anomaly in the east-west direction, and a threefold increase in precipi-table water from 15 mm in dry cases to 28 mm in wet cases. The 500 hPa structure obtained by differencing wet and dry composites is dominated by low geopotentials and cyclonic vorticity over the plateau near 25°S, 25°E, and high geopotentials and anticyclonic vorticity to the south over the oceans near 40°S, 30°E. The dipole anomaly suggests a diffluent tilted baroclinic wave in the subtropical jet stream in convective cases. A double jet streak structure in the wet events enhances upper divergence which contributes to widespread uplift in the mid-troposphere. A case study comparison highlights the importance of pre-frontal moist influx, the kinematic trigger and thermodynamic instability.With 13 Figures     

Quantitative estimates of full glacial temperatures in equatorial Africa from palynological data*

This paper presents a new reconstruction of the mean annual temperature obtained from a high altitude pollen sequence in equatorial Africa (3°28S, 29°34E, 2240 m). It has been achieved with an extended modern African reference data set by adding spectra from 228 new sites and using another selection for pollen taxa. The purpose of this paper is to test how the obtained temperature value depends upon the availability of modern analogues. The results are in good agreement with those previously published, reinforcing the validity of the method. The mean standard error is reduced by 0.3°C. The mean temperature for the Holocene appears + 1.4°C warmer than the present and the last glacial maximum (25-18 kyrs BP) cooling is better specified at – 3 ± 1.9° C, a conservative value, more consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature in the equatorial ocean.Contribution to Clima Locarno - Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Vertical profiles of acetylene in the troposphere and stratosphere

Stratospheric measurements of acetylene up to altitudes of 30 km are presented. The air samples were collected during three different balloon flights, two of them at 44°N, one at 32°N using balloon borne, liquid neon-cooled, cryosamplers. Their acetylene concentration was measured in the laboratory by flame ionisation gaschromatography. The different profiles at 32°N and 44°N are discussed with respect to possible vertical exchange processes and compared with published model calculations.     

The tropospheric distribution of formaldehyde during TROPOZ II

A series of 149 measurements of the HCHO mixing ratio were made between 0 and 10 km altitude and 70° N to 60° S latitude during TROPOZ II. The data show a vertical decrease of the HCHO mixing ratio with altitude at all latitudes and a broad latitudinal maximum in the HCHO mixing ratio between 30° N and 30° S at all altitudes. The measured mixing ratios of HCHO are considerably higher than those expected from CH₄ oxidation alone, but agree broadly with the average latitude by altitude distribution of HCHO derived by a 2D model including emissions of C₁–C₇ hydrocarbons. A number of the regional scale deviations of the measured HCHO distribution from the average modelled one can be explained in terms of the local wind field.     

Net total and UV-B radiation at the sea surface

A three-week continuous record from 21 September to 5 October 1988 of solar and terrestrial downward and upward radiation flux densities (1 data set per minute) obtained during the Atlantic Ocean cruise of the R/V Polarstern (ANT VII/1) along 30° W between 30° N and 30° S is evaluated. As the cruise crossed both subtropics and tropics of the Atlantic Ocean, characteristic daily cycles and meridional distributions of the radiation components and atmospheric turbidity were obtained. Special attention is given to the ultraviolet component of global radiation. The influence of cloudiness on the radiation quantities is discussed. As the knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of solar and longwave atmospheric radiation at the sea surface is important for numerous meteorological, oceanographic, and physico-chemical investigations, this data set is compared with other measurements of the cruise. This work is the continuation of the measurements made during the cruise ANT V/5 of R/V Polarstern along 30° W between 40° S and 40° N in March/April 1987.