气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC 《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。     

Coastal aquaculture,mangrove deforestation and blue carbon emissions: Is REDD+ a solution?

Globally, coastal aquaculture particularly shrimp farming has been under huge criticism because of its environmental impacts including devastating effects on mangrove forests. However, mangroves are ecologically and economically important forests, and the most carbon-rich forests in the tropics that provide a wide range of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Carbon emissions are likely to have been the dominant cause of climate change and blue carbon emissions are being critically augmented through mangrove deforestation. Because of mangrove deforestation, different climatic variables including coastal flooding, cyclone, drought, rainfall, salinity, sea-level rise, and sea surface temperature have dramatic effects on coastal aquaculture. Mangrove forests have been instrumental in augmenting resilience to climate change. The “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD)” program can help to restore mangroves which in turn increases options for adaptation to climate change. However, technical and financial assistance with institutional support are needed to implement REDD+.     

海洋负排放技术及其生态治理功能前瞻

工业革命以来,人类活动导致的以二氧化碳为代表的温室气体持续排放,被认为与全球气候变化密切相关,引发诸多极端气候事件,导致海平面上升、海水酸化、海水暖化等一系列环境负面效应。海洋是地球最大的活跃碳库,增汇潜力巨大。为应对全球气候变化,人为干预海洋生态系统、促进其对大气二氧化碳额外吸收封存的海洋负排放技术体系成为国际研究热点。根据负排放技术的应用场景,目前海洋负排放技术体系涵盖侧重于生态保护和修复的滨海湿地蓝碳、侧重于环境友好型养殖产业的海水养殖环境碳汇和借助生态工程技术手段的负排放工程增汇。海洋负排放技术在实现人为增汇的同时,有望通过促进海洋生物的生长和繁殖、提高海洋生态系统的稳定性和抗干扰能力、促进海洋生态系统内部及其与陆地生态系统之间的资源循环利用,发挥其生态治理功能,从而应对海洋环流改变、海水酸化脱氧等全球海洋环境恶化以及人类活动污染的局部胁迫。     

A climate-informed,ecosystem approach to fisheries management

This paper outlines the benefits of using the framework for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) for dealing with the inevitable yet unclear impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coastal fisheries. With a focus on the Asia-Pacific region, it summarizes the projected biological and socio-economic effects of increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for coastal fisheries and illustrates how all the important dimensions of climate change and ocean acidification can be integrated into the steps involved in the EAFM planning process. The activities required to harness the full potential of an EAFM as an adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification are also described, including: provision of the necessary expertise to inform all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches due to climate change; promotion of trans-disciplinary collaboration; facilitating the participation of all key stakeholders; monitoring the wider fisheries system for climate impacts; and enhancing resources and capacity to implement an EAFM. By channeling some of the resources available to the Asia-Pacific region to adapt to climate change into an EAFM, developing countries will not only build resilience to the ecological and fisheries effects of climate change, they will also help address the habitat degradation and overfishing presently reducing the productivity of coastal fisheries.     

The state of legislation and policy protecting Australia's mangrove and salt marsh and their ecosystem services

Saline coastal wetlands, such as mangrove and coastal salt marsh, provide many ecosystem services. In Australia, large areas have been lost since European colonization, particularly as a result of drainage, infilling and flood-mitigation works, often starting in the mid-19th century and aimed primarily towards converting land to agricultural, urban or industrial uses. These threats remain ongoing, and will be exacerbated by rapid population growth and climate change in the 21st century. Establishing the effect of wetland loss on the delivery of ecosystem services is confounded by the absence of a nationally consistent approach to mapping wetlands and defining the boundaries of different types of coastal wetland. In addition, climate change and its projected effect on mangrove and salt marsh distribution and ecosystem services is poorly, if at all, acknowledged in existing legislation and policy. Intensifying climate change means that there is little time to be complacent; indeed, there is an urgent need for proper valuation of ecosystem services and explicit recognition of ecosystem services within policy and legislation. Seven actions are identified that could improve protection of coastal wetlands and the ecosystem services they provide, including benchmarking and improving coastal wetland extent and health, reducing complexity and inconsistency in governance arrangements, and facilitating wetland adaptation and ecosystem service delivery using a range of relevant mechanisms. Actions that build upon the momentum to mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon – ‘blue carbon’ – could achieve multiple desirable objectives, including climate-change mitigation and adaptation, floodplain rehabilitation and habitat protection.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate variability and sea-level rise: Their implications for integrated coastal management in Cavite City,Philippines

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. These impacts will exacerbate the risks posed by the continuing environmental degradation confronting the coastal communities.Adopting a participatory research approach, the study examines the vulnerability of socioeconomic groups among the coastal population in Cavite City, Philippines, their current adaptation strategies and their adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes and sea-level rise. Under a future scenario of a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR), the study also looks into its potential effects on these urban coastal communities and ecosystems.In the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development, this study suggests a local framework for integrating adaptation strategies and actions into integrated coastal management (ICM) planning. It also recommends appropriate policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management towards increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of these coastal communities to current and future climate risks.     

河北曹妃甸沿海海平面变化分析

采用回归分析方法,对曹妃甸现有海平面数据与邻近的塘沽沿海相对应的海平面数据进行相关分析,用建立的回归方程及塘沽历史海平面时间序列,推算了曹妃甸历史海平面时间序列,进而分析了曹妃甸海平面变化特征,同时预测了曹妃甸未来海平面可能上升的高度。分析结果表明:曹妃甸沿海海平面1951—2013年呈长期波动上升趋势,变化年速率为3.2mm/a;1980—2013年上升加快,变化年速率为6.6mm/a,高于同期中国沿海海平面的上升速率;20世纪90年代至2013年上升更进一步加快,变化年速率为11.1mm/a。可为曹妃甸沿海城市规划、滨岸工程设计和防灾减灾提供参考。     

Assessment of Coastal Inundation due to Sea-Level Rise along the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt

If the rising sea level due to climate change proceeds in the future with the rate observed in the past four decades, it could inundate some coastal lowlands. The aim of this paper is to assess future risk of sea-level rise (SLR) on the Nile delta of Egypt located along the Mediterranean Sea. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are verified, against ground control points, and used to identify areas susceptible to inundation due to future SLR. Analysis of DEMs maps and cross-shore profiles has identified locations that are vulnerable to SLR including coastal wetlands, agriculture areas, and urban neighborhoods. The results have revealed that about 7% of the Nile delta area is at risk of inundation due to future SLR. This information could be used by coastal zone managers in planning and protection of coastal areas.     

Economic feasibility of using offshore oil and gas structures in the Gulf of Mexico for platform-based aquaculture

The increasing global demand for animal protein is a major ecological concern due to its impacts on land use, climate change, global grain supply and fisheries. One method for harvesting animal protein is to grow marine fish. This is widely practiced in coastal environments, but also leads to environmental problems associated with habitat loss and nutrient loading. One alternative is to move marine aquaculture further offshore, away from coastal land-use conflicts and towards ocean currents, which can efficiently dispose wastes. This concept creates a logistical challenge, however, since operators have to transport large amounts of food, fish and fuel to and from offshore cages on a regular basis and in varied weather conditions. In this paper, we discuss the economic feasibility of using offshore oil and gas platforms as bases for open ocean aquaculture in the Gulf of Mexico. We develop net-present value models of a platform-based operation and describe sensitivity analysis of the model output. We conclude that offshore platform-based mariculture may be commercially viable under favorable assumptions, that its viability requires economies of scale and depends principally on the yield per unit of cage volume achieved. The limitations of the analysis are described.     

黄海区域海水养殖与海洋捕捞变化特征分析（1990—2015年）

近几十年来,黄海渔业资源的开发利用得到了飞速发展。作为重要的海水养殖以及海洋捕捞区域,黄海海洋生态系统为全国提供了丰富的海产品。本研究首次采用海洋供给服务评估方法研究黄海区域养殖生产和捕捞生产的物质量及价值量变化情况,结果表明：1990—2015年,黄海区域海水养殖物质量和价值量持续上升,2015年养殖物质量（883.1万t）比1990年（103.6万t）上升了752.4%,价值量则从130.1亿元上升至1 834.4亿元。与此同时,海洋捕捞物质量和价值量则呈现先上升后下降的趋势,在2000年达到顶峰（530.7万t,2 772.3亿元）后均有所下降。海水养殖价值量百分比组成变化十分显著,由最初的贝类和虾蟹类为主变为贝类（45.8%）和其他类（32.8%）为主。海洋捕捞价值量中其他类和头足类的比例也在不断增加,2015年增至24.9%,仅次于鱼类的捕捞价值量。黄海区域渔业利用变化情况与全球气候改变、近岸水域环境受污染严重以及各类养殖技术快速发展等密不可分。本研究期望通过海洋供给服务评估分析为黄海区域渔业资源利用管理以及可持续发展提供一定的科学基础。     

The importance of estimating the contribution of the oceans to national economies

The oceans are in trouble. Poorly understood and unprecedented environmental and economic changes are underway in our world's oceans that will significantly affect life in the sea as well as on land. Only in the last thirty years has the contribution of the ocean sector to the economy been measured. An examination of these studies has exposed definitional, conceptual and methodological differences in measuring marine-related economic activity in the economy, making comparisons difficult. Both the ocean and the coastal economies face a world of volatile changes. In the ocean economy marine transport faces unpredictable fuel costs. Coastal tourism also faces losses from climate change impacts and sea level rise. Finally, a warming ocean and increasing acidification of the oceans from greenhouse gases is already affecting coral reefs and a range of fish stocks. Economic measures are important to predict these impacts, as are economic measures of the resilience of different areas of the ocean and coastal economies. This article demonstrates how knowledge of both the ocean, coastal and national economies can help governments address the future impacts and demands posed by nature and human populations on our coasts and oceans.     

气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响

本文针对国内外有关气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的研究情况,分别从温度、CO2浓度变化、海平面上升、降雨量、海洋水文结构和海流变化以及紫外线辐射增强等方面探讨气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响,并从病原生物传播、浮游生物群落结构、海洋鱼类群落结构变化等方面分析气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响．针对全球气候变化对我国海洋生物多样性保护带来的挑战,提出了今后的研究重点．     

Future sea-level rise and its early detection by satellite remote sensing

During the past 100 years, sea-level appears to have risen by 10–15cm, probably due to the combined effects of thermal expansion of ocean-surface waters and net melting of glaciers and ice caps, associated with a small increase in global temperatures. This trend will almost certainly continue and accelerate if steadily increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere cause warming of the magnitude widely predicted by climate modellers. Rising air temperatures will cause increased melting from glaciers and ice caps, and rising sea-water temperatures will cause thermal expansion of the oceans. Moreover, warmer ocean waters could melt and weaken the many floating ice shelves that surround Antarctica, permitting increased ice discharge from glaciers that flow into them. All of these factors would cause sea-level to rise, and this paper presents and estimate of the total sea-level rise that could occur during the next century.If, as predicted by many climate models, global temperatures increase by an average of about 3°C, there is a good probability that sea-level will rise approximately 1m by the year 2100. Ultimately, such a rise would become very apparent to coastal populations, but initial change would be slow. Consequently, it is important to devise and “early warning system” for prompt detection of changes that will precede a detectable rise in sea level. These include: surface temperatures on land, oceans and ice sheets; sea-ice distribution; extent of summer melting on the polar ice sheets; areal extent and surface elevations of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. All of these parameters can be measured from space by satellites that are operating now or are planned for launch during the next few years     

Privatization,financialization and ocean grabbing in New Brunswick herring fisheries and salmon aquaculture

The growing literature on individual transferable quotas (ITQs) and on intensive salmon aquaculture and its negative impacts on the environment and other users of related marine space has been little connected to the developing literature on financialization and to the literature on ocean grabbing within fisheries. This paper seeks to address this gap through a case study of the recent history of herring fisheries and intensive aquaculture in New Brunswick, Canada, exploring how specific neoliberal processes – including privatization and marketization (in herring fleet ITQs and aquaculture lease systems), (re)regulation, financialization and globalization – have interacted to support the reshaping of regional fisheries from mixed small-scale, family-based, petty commodity fisheries towards vertically-integrated, corporate, financialized fisheries characterized by ocean grabbing.     

Birth of the modern Chesapeake Bay estuary between 7.4 and 8.2 ka and implications for global sea-level rise

Two major pulses of sea-level rise are thought to have taken place since the last glacial maximum — meltwater pulses (mwp) 1A (12 cal ka) and 1B (9.5 cal ka). Between mwp 1B and about 6 cal ka, many of the complex coastal ecosystems which ring the world’s oceans began to form. Here we report data for rhenium, carbon isotopes, total organic carbon, and fossil oysters from Chesapeake Bay which span the transition from fresh to brackish water conditions in the bay in the mid-Holocene. These data constrain sea-level change and resulting environmental change in the bay. They indicate that the transition was rapid, and that it was produced by (1) a third pulse of rapid eustatic sea-level rise, or (2) a geometry of the prehistoric Chesapeake Bay basin which predisposed it to a nonlinear response to a steadily rising sea level. Similar nonlinear changes in vulnerable coastal environments are likely to take place in the future due to polar warming, regardless of the timing or rate of sea-level rise.     

Birth of the modern Chesapeake Bay estuary between 7.4 and 8.2 ka and implications for global sea-level rise

Two major pulses of sea-level rise are thought to have taken place since the last glacial maximum — meltwater pulses (mwp) 1A (12 cal ka) and 1B (9.5 cal ka). Between mwp 1B and about 6 cal ka, many of the complex coastal ecosystems which ring the world’s oceans began to form. Here we report data for rhenium, carbon isotopes, total organic carbon, and fossil oysters from Chesapeake Bay which span the transition from fresh to brackish water conditions in the bay in the mid-Holocene. These data constrain sea-level change and resulting environmental change in the bay. They indicate that the transition was rapid, and that it was produced by (1) a third pulse of rapid eustatic sea-level rise, or (2) a geometry of the prehistoric Chesapeake Bay basin which predisposed it to a nonlinear response to a steadily rising sea level. Similar nonlinear changes in vulnerable coastal environments are likely to take place in the future due to polar warming, regardless of the timing or rate of sea-level rise.     

21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋上层热含量及热比容海平面异常变化

气候变暖背景下,全球平均海洋变暖和海平面上升显著,为人类社会的可持续发展带来巨大挑战。上层海洋热力状况是海平面变化的主导因子之一。本文围绕"21世纪海上丝绸之路"途经海区（文中简称为丝路海区）上层海洋热含量异常的区域性时空特征,分析探讨了丝路海区热比容海平面异常的时空变化、演变特征及可能影响,以期为"21世纪海上丝绸之路"海洋环境安全保障提供服务支撑。结果表明,自20世纪70年代中后期,丝路海区上层（0~700 m）海洋已明显变暖,尤其20世纪90年代中后期增暖幅度显著加大。近60年来,在丝路海区热带海洋中,西太平洋的北赤道流区及以北海域、东海黑潮流域以及南海北部和南部海区、阿拉伯海西北部海域、马来西亚西北部海域及南印度洋部分海域具有长期增暖趋势。热带西太平洋暖池区整体增暖不明显,主要与印度洋中部海域呈反位相变化,且明显受到季节和年际变化的调制。长江口附近沿岸、南海北部沿岸、中南半岛南部沿岸以及阿拉伯海西北部沿岸的近岸海域长期增暖明显,自20世纪90年代中后期,中南半岛东部和西部沿海、澳大利亚西部沿海以及我国东南沿海热比容海平面上升明显。近岸热比容海平面的季节演变对沿海地区社会和经济发展会造成一定影响。此外,东亚夏季风与东海、黄海和渤海热比容海平面的上升显著相关,同时,ENSO、太平洋年代际振荡和印度洋偶极子的发生也均与我国东南沿海和印度洋西部沿海热比容海平面上升明显关联。特别是,气候变暖情形下,各种区域性致灾因子和气候变率的协同影响会对丝路海区海岸带和沿海地区的防灾减灾与社会经济发展带来较大挑战,开展海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究成为当前首要任务。     

Socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification in the Mediterranean Sea

Ocean acidification appears as another environmental pressure associated with anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. This paper aims to assess the likely magnitude of this phenomenon in the Mediterranean region. This involves translating expected changes in ocean chemistry into impacts, first on marine and coastal ecosystems and then, through effects on services provided by these to humans, into socio-economic costs. Economic market and non-market valuation techniques are needed for this purpose. Important sectors affected are tourism and recreation, red coral extraction, and fisheries (both capture and aquaculture production). In addition, the costs associated with the disruption of ecosystem regulating services, notably carbon sequestration and non-use values will be considered. Finally, indirect impacts on other economic sectors will have to be estimated. The paper discusses the framework and methods to accomplish all of this, and offers a preliminary, qualitative overall assessment.     

The Bering Sea—A dynamic food web perspective

The Bering Sea is a high-latitude, semi-enclosed sea that supports extensive fish, seabird, marine mammal, and invertebrate populations and some of the world's most productive fisheries. The region consists of several distinct biomes that have undergone wide-scale population variation, in part due to fisheries, but also in part due to the effects of interannual and decadal-scale climatic variation. While recent decades of ocean observation have highlighted possible links between climate and species fluctuations, mechanisms linking climate and population fluctuations are only beginning to be understood. Here, we examine the food webs of Bering Sea ecosystems with particular reference to some key shifts in widely distributed, abundant fish populations and their links with climate variation. Both climate variability and fisheries have substantially altered the Bering Sea ecosystem in the past, but their relative importance in shaping the current ecosystem state remains uncertain.     

Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats,throughout the 21st century

Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere–ocean coupled general climate models, have been extracted for the Bay of Biscay; these are used to estimate thermosteric sea level variations. The results show that, from 2001 to 2099, sea level within the Bay of Biscay will increase by between 28.5 and 48.7 cm, as a result of regional thermal expansion and global ice-melting, under scenarios A1B and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A high-resolution digital terrain model, extracted from LiDAR, data was used to evaluate the potential impact of the estimated sea level rise to 9 coastal and estuarine habitats: sandy beaches and muds, vegetated dunes, shingle beaches, sea cliffs and supralittoral rock, wetlands and saltmarshes, terrestrial habitats, artificial land, piers, and water surfaces. The projected sea level rise of 48.7 cm was added to the high tide level of the coast studied, to generate a flood risk map of the coastal and estuarine areas. The results indicate that 110.8 ha of the supralittoral area will be affected by the end of the 21st Century; these are concentrated within the estuaries, with terrestrial and artificial habitats being the most affected. Sandy beaches are expected to undergo mean shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40%, of their width. The risk assessment of the areas and habitats that will be affected, as a consequence of the sea level rise, is potentially useful for local management to adopt adaptation measures to global climate change.