基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。     

Developments in ocean climate modelling

This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms.     

An ocean model for climate variability studies

Models of the time dependent ocean circulation can be simplified considerably by filtering out all short term, small scale motions which are unimportant for climatic processes. For time scales large compared with a day and space scales large compared with the internal Rossby radius of deformation (～50 km), the currents in most of the interior ocean can be determined diagnostically as quasi-equilibrium fields, so that only the salinity and temperature fields need be treated prognostically.Regions of closed f/h contours, however, represent exceptions. Here trapped vorticity gyres exist as free flow solutions without external forcing, and in the presence of forcing the barotropic velocity field must therefore be determined prognostically through a potential vorticity equation for the gyres.Lateral boundary layers and the equatorial regions also require separate treatment. These were not considered specifically, but it is suggested that integrated (parametrical) models analogous in structure to mixed-layer models or the integrated boundary layer models of aerodynamics may be the most appropriate technique for coupling these regions to the interior ocean in a comprehensive ocean model suitable for climate studies.A coupled multi-region model of the global ocean circulation based on these scale considerations could be sufficiently cost-effective to permit systematic investigation of the role of the oceanic heat storage and transport in climate variability studies over a wide spectrum of space and time scales.The analysis of the seasonal variations of the interior ocean circulation represents a simple example in which the filtered model yields considerably simpler and more readily interpretable results than a fully three-dimensional, unfiltered model.     

Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70a, at the time of CO2 doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.     

Mixing parameterizations in ocean climate modeling

Results of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model on the simulation of the climatic variability of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are analyzed. We compare the ocean simulation quality with using different subgrid mixing parameterizations. The circulation model is found to be sensitive to a mixing parametrization. The computation of viscosity and diffusivity coefficients by an original splitting algorithm of the evolution equations for turbulence characteristics is found to be as efficient as traditional Monin–Obukhov parameterizations. At the same time, however, the variability of ocean climate characteristics is simulated more adequately. The simulation of salinity fields in the entire study region improves most significantly. Turbulent processes have a large effect on the circulation in the long-term through changes in the density fields. The velocity fields in the Gulf Stream and in the entire North Atlantic Subpolar Cyclonic Gyre are reproduced more realistically. The surface level height in the Arctic Basin is simulated more faithfully, marking the Beaufort Gyre better. The use of the Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number improves the quality of ocean modeling.     

Securing blue wealth: The need for a special sustainable development goal for the ocean and coasts

The ocean regulates the global climate, provides humans with natural resources such as food, materials, important substances, and energy, and is essential for international trade and recreational and cultural activities. Together with human development and economic growth, free access to, and availability of, ocean resources and services have exerted strong pressure on marine systems, ranging from overfishing, increasing resource extraction, and alteration of coastal zones to various types of thoughtless pollution. Both economic theory and many case studies suggest that there is no “tragedy of the commons” but a “tragedy of open access”. With high likeliness, structures of open access are non-sustainable. International cooperation and effective governance are required to protect the marine environment and promote the sustainable use of marine resources in such a way that due account can be taken of the environmental values of current generations and the needs of future generations. For this purpose, developing and agreeing on one Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) specifically for the Ocean and Coasts could prove to be an essential element. The new SDGs will build upon the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and replace them by 2015. Ensuring environmental sustainability in a general sense is one of the eight MDGs but the ocean is not explicitly addressed. Furthermore, the creation of a comprehensive underlying set of ocean sustainability targets and effective indicators developed within a global Future Ocean Spatial Planning (FOSP) process would help in assessing the current status of marine systems, diagnosing ongoing trends, and providing information for inclusive, forward-looking, and sustainable ocean governance.     

Interaction between two polar cold source and tropical ocean heat source effecting global climate change

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Review of inorganic nitrogen transformations and effect of global climate change on inorganic nitrogen cycling in ocean ecosystems

Inorganic N transformations (nitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium) are regulated by various biogeochemical factors linked either by the supply of electron acceptors and donors or by competition for electron acceptors. This review considers both the microbial community related to each process and the technical methods used to measure each process rate. With this background knowledge, this article summarizes how global climate change through increased pCO2, ocean acidification, deoxygenation and anthropogenic N deposition will alter oceanic N cycling, and finally emphasizes the need for comprehensive research on inorganic N transformation in marine ecosystems.     

Climate change projections for the surface ocean around New Zealand

The future status of the surface ocean around New Zealand was projected using two Earth System Models and four emission scenarios. By 2100 mean changes are largest under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), with a +2.5°C increase in sea surface temperature, and decreases in surface mixed layer depth (15%), macronutrients (7.5–20%), primary production (4.5%) and particle flux (12%). Largest macronutrient declines occur in the eastern Chatham Rise and subantarctic waters to the south, whereas dissolved iron increases in subtropical waters. Surface pH projections, validated against subantarctic time-series data, indicate a 0.335 decline to ～7.77 by 2100. However, projected pH is sensitive to future CO₂ emissions, remaining within the current range under RCP2.6, but decreasing below it by 2040 with all other scenarios. Sub-regions vulnerable to climate change include the Chatham Rise, polar waters south of 50°S, and subtropical waters north of New Zealand, whereas the central Tasman Sea is least affected.     

海洋模式中垂直混合参数化方案介绍

介绍了海洋垂直混合过程参数化方案的发展,以及不同参数化方案在海洋模式中的应用情况。首先,介绍不同垂直混合参数化方案的物理问题、理论依据、数学表达和特征,并对不同参数化方案进行了比较。其次,针对中尺度涡、亚中尺度涡以及波浪、潮流混合参数化的最新研究进展进行了总结并对垂直混合参数化的未来发展提出了一些建议。     

Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Societal need for improved understanding of climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and geo-hazard warning drive development of ocean observatories in European Seas

Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate.Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related?The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised.     

Adaptation behavior in the face of global climate change: Survey responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys

We conduct a survey to elicit responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys regarding vulnerability to global climate change. Study findings reveal deep concern among federal, state and local experts and decision makers about adverse impacts at the local level. A large majority of respondents recognize the increasing likelihood of dynamic, potentially irreversible, socioeconomic and ecological repercussions for the Florida Keys. However, very few experts and decision makers report that their respective agencies have developed formal adaptation plans. Respondents identify significant institutional and social barriers to adaptation and convey their support for a host of strategic measures to facilitate adaptation on an urgent basis. The implications of our findings are discussed in the context of enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience in the Florida Keys and beyond. Information generated from this study can provide functional guidance for improving decision-support systems and promoting adaptation policies.     

Economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Solomon Islands: Implication for food security

Fisheries resources play a major role in the national economy and to food security in Solomon Islands. Climate change is likely to have a substantial impact on fish production that can lead to a fragile food security condition in the country. This paper assesses the potential economic impact of three important climate change adaptation strategies – natural resource management (NRM), fish aggregating devices (FAD) and aquaculture – in Solomon Islands. The study used a country-specific partial equilibrium economic model with six fish sub-sectors and analyzed potential impact of alternate climate change adaptation strategies for 2035 and 2050. The modeling and scenario analyses show that total fish demand is likely to surpass domestic fish production in 2050. Without appropriate climate adaptation strategy, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish will decline, which has serious negative food security implications for the country. The economic (welfare) analysis conducted based on modeling results show that the national level net economic gains due to climate change adaptation strategies are substantial. If cost and topographic conditions permit, low-cost inshore FADs are expected to be a good mechanism for augmenting domestic supplies of tuna and similar species in Solomon Islands.     

海水温差能发电的经济和环保效益

能源是国民经济的重要战略资源,随着世界经济和社会的发展,能源的消耗量也在快速增长。同时,由于矿物燃料的大量使用,世界的环境日益恶化,使人类面临着前所未有的环境问题。中国是世界上仅次于美国的第二能源消费大国,也是能源需求增长最快的国家之一,能源已成为制约经济社会快速发展的瓶颈。在当前日益严峻的能源和环境生态危机形式下,     

Estimating climatic temperature change in the ocean with syntheticacoustic apertures

An acoustic tomography simulation is carried out in the eastern North Pacific ocean to assess whether climate trends are better detected and mapped with mobile or fixed receivers. In both cases, acoustic signals from two stationary sources are transmitted to ten receivers. Natural variability of the sound-speed field is simulated with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) layered-ocean model. A sequential Kalman-Bucy filter is used to estimate the sound speed field, where the a priori error covariance matrix of the parameters is estimated from the NRL model. A spatially homogeneous climate trend is added to the NRL fluctuations of sound speed, but the trend is not parameterized in the Kalman filter. Acoustic travel times are computed between the sources and receivers by combining sound speeds from the NRL model with those from the unparameterized climate trend. The effects of the unparameterized climate trend are projected onto parameters which eventually drift beyond acceptable limits. At that time, the unparameterized trend is detected. Mobile and fixed receivers detect the trend at about the same time. At detection time, however, maps from fixed receivers are less accurate because some of the unparameterized climate trend is projected onto tile spatially varying harmonics of the sound-speed field. With mobile receivers, the synthetic apertures suppress the projection onto these harmonics. Instead, the unparametrized trend is correctly projected onto the spatially homogeneous portion of the parameterized sound-speed field