BME prediction of continuous geographical properties using auxiliary variables

Using auxiliary information to improve the prediction accuracy of soil properties in a physically meaningful and technically efficient manner has been widely recognized in pedometrics. In this paper, we explored a novel technique to effectively integrate sampling data and auxiliary environmental information, including continuous and categorical variables, within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) theory. Soil samples and observed auxiliary variables were combined to generate probability distributions of the predicted soil variable at unsampled points. These probability distributions served as soft data of the BME theory at the unsampled locations, and, together with the hard data (sample points) were used in spatial BME prediction. To gain practical insight, the proposed approach was implemented in a real-world case study involving a dataset of soil total nitrogen (TN) contents in the Shayang County of the Hubei Province (China). Five terrain indices, soil types, and soil texture were used as auxiliary variables to generate soft data. Spatial distribution of soil total nitrogen was predicted by BME, regression kriging (RK) with auxiliary variables, and ordinary kriging (OK). The results of the prediction techniques were compared in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), mean error (ME), and root mean squared error (RMSE). These results showed that the BME predictions were less biased and more accurate than those of the kriging techniques. In sum, the present work extended the BME approach to implement certain kinds of auxiliary information in a rigorous and efficient manner. Our findings showed that the BME prediction technique involving the transformation of variables into soft data can improve prediction accuracy considerably, compared to other techniques currently in use, like RK and OK.     

Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins

Distributed hydrological modelling using space–time estimates of rainfall from weather radar provides a natural approach to area-wide flood forecasting and warning at any location, whether gauged or ungauged. However, radar estimates of rainfall may lack consistent, quantitative accuracy. Also, the formulation of hydrological models in distributed form may be problematic due to process complexity and scaling issues. Here, the aim is to first explore ways of improving radar rainfall accuracy through combination with raingauge network data via integrated multiquadric methods. When the resulting gridded rainfall estimates are employed as input to hydrological models, the simulated river flows show marked improvements when compared to using radar data alone. Secondly, simple forms of physical–conceptual distributed hydrological model are considered, capable of exploiting spatial datasets on topography and, where necessary, land-cover, soil and geology properties. The simplest Grid-to-Grid model uses only digital terrain data to delineate flow pathways and to control runoff production, the latter by invoking a probability-distributed relation linking terrain slope to soil absorption capacity. Model performance is assessed over nested river basins in northwest England, employing a lumped model as a reference. When the distributed model is used with the gridded radar-based rainfall estimators, it shows particular benefits for forecasting at ungauged locations.     

Recession flow prediction in gauged and ungauged basins by just considering past discharge information

ABSTRACT

Two contrasting methods have been proposed recently to predict the recession flow coefficient using past discharge information only. This study proposes a new method that attempts to obtain past discharge information that is minimally influenced by non-subsurface storage-controlled flows. The existing and new methods were tested using data from 324 US Geological Survey basins, and the new method was found to be superior to both existing methods in 265 basins. Furthermore, this study for the first time used past discharge-derived coefficients to predict recession discharge. The model performance was found to be satisfactory (NSE > 0.5) in 244 basins. Our results also show that the new framework may be useful in certain regions for predicting recession discharge in totally ungauged basins using past discharge information from nearby gauged basins. Overall, this study advances the idea that recession discharge can be predicted by just using past discharge data.     

Use of a derived distribution approach for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins: A case study in Italy

A derived distribution approach is developed for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins. This couples information on the expected storm scaling, condensed into Depth Duration Frequency curves, with soil abstractions modeled using Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method and hydrological response through Nash’s Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph. A simplified framework is given to evaluate critical duration for flood design. Antecedent moisture condition distribution is included. The method is tested on 16 poorly gauged Mediterranean watersheds in Tyrrhenian Liguria, North Western Italy, belonging to a homogeneous hydrological regions. The derived flood distribution is compared to the regional one, currently adopted for flood design. The evaluation of Curve Number is critical for peak flood evaluation and needs to be carefully carried out. This can be done including local Annual Flood Series data in the estimation of the derived distribution, so gathering the greatest available information. However, Curve Number influence decreases for the highest return periods. When considerable return periods are required for flood design and few years of data are available, the derived distribution provides more accurate estimates than the approach based on single site distribution fitting. A strategy based on data availability for application of the approach is then given. The proposed methodology contributes to the ongoing discussion concerning PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) decade of the IAHS association and can be used by researchers and practitioners for those sites where no flood data, or only a few, are available, provided precipitation data and land use information are at hand.     

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeochemistry and its relation to groundwater level fluctuation in the Palar and Cheyyar river basins,southern India

An investigation was carried out to understand the role of water level fluctuation on major‐ion chemistry of groundwater in the Palar and Cheyyar river basins, southern India. As groundwater is the only major source of water for agricultural and drinking purposes in this area, it is important to know the effect of geological formations and agricultural activities on groundwater chemistry. Groundwater samples were collected once a month from 43 wells (641 samples in total), from January 1998 to June 1999, and analysed for major ions. The results indicate that the major‐ion chemistry of the groundwater varies with respect to space. Groundwater occurring near the River Palar has a high concentration of major ions except calcium, due to the absence of any recharge from the river, whereas lower concentrations of major ions were observed in the central part of the study area due to the recharge of fresh water from a number of surface reservoirs. The major‐ion chemistry of the study region is controlled by both mineral dissolution and anthropogenic activities. The relative contributions of mineral dissolution and anthropogenic contamination are estimated by a stoichiometric approach, which suggests that mineral dissolution is the dominant process in both the formations. The relation between water level fluctuations and major‐ion chemistry indicates that major‐ion chemistry is also greatly influenced by the water level fluctuations in different geological formations. Thus, the major‐ion chemistry of groundwater in this region is greatly influenced by mineral dissolution, anthropogenic activities and water level fluctuations in different geological formations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of groundwater recharge in sandy till with two different methods using groundwater level fluctuations

Two methods for estimation of groundwater recharge, both based on groundwater level fluctuations, were applied in a moraine area in southeastern Sweden. The first method utilized a onedimensional soil water model which was tested against observed groundwater levels. The boundary conditions were defined by using standard meteorological data and submodels for precipitation, snow dynamics, interception, evapotranspiration and horizontal groundwater outflow. The second method directly transformed groundwater level fluctuations to equivalent amounts of water from a constructed recession curve and the specific yield concept. Conceptually the two methods could be characterized as inflow and response methods respectively.

A good fit between observed and simulated groundwater levels was obtained by the soil water modelling. The results were, however, shown to be rather insensitive to displacement in the water balance between evapotranspiration and groundwater outflow, giving a good fit for a simulated net groundwater recharge ranging between 134 and 197 mm. The results from the attempts to use groundwater level fluctuations directly were discouraging. Compared to the soil water simulations the results were unstable and quite different for different years. It was impossible to use a constant specific yield or even different specific yields depending on depth.

The conclusion was that the possibilities to use groundwater level data for quantitative water balance studies are limited under the studied climatical and hydrogeological conditions. The modelling effort clearly demonstrated the need for a better quantitative knowledge on soil properties if water balance information is to be deduced. The soil water model though, could be a valuable tool studying variations within and between different years as well as processes and single events.     

Temporal sampling and role of flux measurements for subsurface heterogeneous characterization in groundwater basins using hydraulic tomography

Accurate characterization of heterogeneity in groundwater basins is crucial to the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study explores the temporal sampling issues and the role of flux measurements in the characterization of heterogeneity in groundwater basins using numerical experiments. The experiments involve a digital basin imitating the groundwater basin of the North China Plain (NCP), where the groundwater exploitation reduction program is ongoing. Using the experiments, we champion that the reduction program could collect groundwater level information induced by operational variations of existing pumping wells at different locations in the basin. Such a dataset could serve as a basin-scale hydraulic tomography (HT) to characterize the basin-scale heterogeneity cost-effectively. Both steady-state and transient-state inversion experiments demonstrate the advantage of HT surveys in characterizing basin-scale heterogeneity over conventional pumping tests at fixed well locations. Additionally, head data at the early, intermediate, and late time from well hydrographs should be selected for the HT analysis to maximize HT's power and save computational costs. When accurate geological zones are incorporated in prior information, flux measurements significantly improve parameter estimates based on conventional pumping tests. However, their effects are less noticeable for long-term HT surveys in such basin-scale aquifers without fissures or fractures. This basin-scale tomographic survey example serves a guide for field data collection and optimization of the analysis of future basin-scale HT.     

Nitrate and herbicide loading in two groundwater basins of Illinois'' sinkhole plain

This investigation was designed to estimate the mass loading of nitrate (NO₃⁻) and herbicides in spring water discharging from groundwater basins in an agriculturally dominated, mantled karst terrain. The loading was normalized to land use and NO₃⁻ and herbicide losses were compared to estimated losses in other agricultural areas of the Midwestern USA. Our study area consisted of two large karst springs that drain two adjoining groundwater basins (total area of 37.7 km²) in southwestern Illinois' sinkhole plain, USA. The springs and stream that they form were monitored for almost 2 years. Nitrate–nitrogen (NO₃–N) concentrations at three monitoring sites were almost always above the background concentration (1.9 mg/l). NO₃–N concentrations at the two springs ranged from 1.08 to 6.08 with a median concentration of 3.61 mg/l. Atrazine and alachlor concentrations ranged from <0.01 to 34 μg/l and <0.01 to 0.98 μg/l, respectively, with median concentrations of 0.48 and 0.12 μg/l, respectively. Approximately 100,000 kg/yr of NO₃–N, 39 kg/yr of atrazine, and 2.8 kg/yr of alachlor were discharged from the two springs. Slightly more than half of the discharged NO₃⁻ came from background sources and most of the remainder probably came from fertilizer. This represents a 21–31% loss of fertilizer N from the groundwater basins. The pesticide losses were 3.8–5.8% of the applied atrazine, and 0.05–0.08% of the applied alachlor. The loss of atrazine adsorbed to the suspended solid fraction was about 2 kg/yr, only about 5% of the total mass of atrazine discharged from the springs.     

Isotope composition of groundwater in the Azov-Kuban and Eastern Pre-Caucasian artesian basins

Studying results of the groundwater isotope composition in the Neogene-Quaternary and Mesozoic sediments of the Azov-Kuban and Eastern Pre-Caucasian artesian basins have shown in the Pliocene sediments a rather wide distribution of ??relict?? groundwater, formed because of melting of the Late Pleistocene Caucasian glaciers, as well as of groundwater formed due to its mixing with the meteogenic waters of the subsequent Holocene infiltration cycles. Also, the areas are revealed in the Lower-Miocene sediments where meteogenic waters are mixed with sedimentation waters, while in the Mesozoic formations??the areas where into the sedimentation waters wedge-shaped meteogenic waters of Pleistocene and Holocene infiltration periods are intruded.     

地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比分析及预测意义

应用加卸载响应比的理论原理,对广东地下水位网的观测数据进行加卸载响应比计算,以广东及周边地区数次MS4．0级以上地震作为震例,提取可能的中期至短期的响应比异常变化,研究其异常特征以及与地震的对应关系。结果表明,在中强地震前响应比存在增大变化,大多数井的水位固体潮响应比在发震前1～4个月出现升高异常变化。     

Mapping groundwater quality variables using PCA and geostatistics: a case study of Bajo Andarax,southeastern Spain

Abstract

A case study is presented for the application of statistical and geostatistical methods to the problem of estimating groundwater quality variables. This methodology has been applied to the investigation of the detrital aquifer of the Bajo Andarax (Almería, Spain). The use of principal components analysis is proposed, as a first step, for identifying relevant types of groundwater and the processes that bring about a change in their quality. As a result of this application, three factors were obtained, which were used as three new variables (VI: sulphate influence; V2: thermal influence; and V3: marine influence). Analysis of their spatial distribution was performed through the calculation of experimental and theoretical variograms, which served as input for geostatistical modelling using ordinary block kriging. This analysis has allowed a probabilistic representation of the data to be obtained by mapping the three variables throughout the aquifer for each sampling point. In this way, one can evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of the principal physico-chemical processes associated with the three variables VI, V2 and V3 implicated in the groundwater quality of the detrital aquifer.     

Spectral responses of water level in tidal river and groundwater

The water level of five river stages and seven groundwater wells in the Taipei Basin were analysed by spectral analysis in the frequency domain. The diurnal, semi‐diurnal and quarter‐diurnal tidal components of the Tanshui River appear to relate closely to astronomical tides as K₁, M₂ and M₄, respectively. It is also found that the diurnal component reveals a reversed phase angle in the middle section of the Tanshui River; the phase of the quarter‐diurnal component is also found to be reversed at stations upstream in the Tanshui River and Hsintien Stream. It is believed that these phenomena could be caused by local variation in the river channel topography. The autospectrum and cross‐spectrum between groundwater elevation and nearby river stage were observed to correlate highly with the frequency of the astronomical tides K₁, M₂ and M₄. From the study of the phase shift and time lag of water level fluctuations at river stages and groundwater wells, it was found that the tidal effects of diurnal, semi‐diurnal, and quarter‐diurnal components were significantly different. The relationships between phase and the fluctuated range of atmospheric pressure and water level imply that change in atmospheric pressure does not affect water level fluctuation in the river stage and groundwater well. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene palaeohydrology,groundwater and climate change in the lake basins of the Central Kenya Rift

Abstract

The Central Kenya Rift contains small soda lakes such as Nakuru, Elmenteita and Bogoria, freshwater Lake Naivasha, and the partly (spatially) freshwater Lake Baringo. The hydrology of this area is controlled mainly by climate, tectonically controlled morphological and volcanic barriers, faults, and local water-table variations. Much of the area relies on groundwater for human and industrial use, though there are widespread quality issues particularly in relation to fluoride. Despite the huge demand for the resource, little is known about the highly complex groundwater systems; lacking monitoring data, an assessment is developed on the basis of regional geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical analyses. Significant hydrological changes have taken place in the region over the last 10 000 years as a result of global, regional and local changes, but the impacts on groundwater resources are still largely unknown. The IPCC projects a 10–15% increase of rainfall in the area, but it may not necessarily result in a proportional increase in groundwater recharge. High groundwater recharge periods appear to be anchored on a decadal cycle.     

Development and evaluation of a local grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using shared nodes

A new method of local grid refinement for two-dimensional block-centered finite-difference meshes is presented in the context of steady-state groundwater-flow modeling. The method uses an iteration-based feedback with shared nodes to couple two separate grids. The new method is evaluated by comparison with results using a uniform fine mesh, a variably spaced mesh, and a traditional method of local grid refinement without a feedback.Results indicate: (1) The new method exhibits quadratic convergence for homogenous systems and convergence equivalent to uniform-grid refinement for heterogeneous systems. (2) Coupling the coarse grid with the refined grid in a numerically rigorous way allowed for improvement in the coarse-grid results. (3) For heterogeneous systems, commonly used linear interpolation of heads from the large model onto the boundary of the refined model produced heads that are inconsistent with the physics of the flow field. (4) The traditional method works well in situations where the better resolution of the locally refined grid has little influence on the overall flow-system dynamics, but if this is not true, lack of a feedback mechanism produced errors in head up to 3.6% and errors in cell-to-cell flows up to 25%.     

Classification of hydrogeological features in volcanic areas of Kamchatka and a characterization of volcanogenic basins

Geological-structural and hydrogeological features available in the Kamchatka region were used to identify three leading types of volcanogenic hydrogeological structures: Quaternary volcanogenic basins (VBs), Neogene volcanogenic adbasins (VABs), and artesian volcanogenic basins (AVBs). The first type subdivides into six subtypes by morphogenetic features. It is these subtypes that control the conditions under which the VBs are generated. All these are characterized from the standpoint of regional hydrogeology.     

The origin and the formation laws of groundwater and mine water chemistry in the Eastern Donets Basin

Successive classification modeling of multivariate observations was used to objectively identify and quantitatively describe four major hydrogeochemical directions of changes in mine water chemistry and two hydrogeochemical trends for groundwater in the Eastern Donets Basin (two types of vertical hydrogeochemical zonality). Processes along the first hydrogeochemical direction result in the formation of acid sulfate mineralized water, those along the second direction form neutral chloride-sulfate waters, those along the third direction form sulfate-chloride and chloride, and those along the fourth direction form soda, hydrocarbonate-sulfate-chloride waters; the processes of sulfur oxidation and water mixing play the main role in the formation of water chemistry. In the case of groundwater, the first trend (direct zonality) manifests itself in the formation of highly mineralized chloride sodium water (mineralization of up to 60–80 g/l), while the second trend (inverse zonality) results in the formation of moderately mineralized soda hydrocarbonate-chloride and chloride sodium water (1–3 g/l). The genesis of water chemistry is explained with the engagement of infiltration, sedimentation, and evaporation-condensation hypotheses. Giving preference to the evaporation-condensation genesis of groundwater chemistry according to the second trend, the authors came to the conclusion that the Eastern Donets Basin is promising in terms of oil and gas accumulations.     

Assessment of severity of the extreme River Tyne flood in January 2005 using gauged and historical information

Abstract

The extreme Tyne (Northumbria, UK) flood in January 2005 provided the opportunity to reassess flood risk and to link peak discharge and flooded area to probability of occurrence. However, in spite of the UK guidance on flood risk assessment given in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), there is still considerable subjectivity in deriving risk estimates. A particular problem for the Tyne arises from the effects of river bed gravel extraction both on the reliability of gauged discharges and in the interpretation of historical level data. In addition, attenuation and drawdown of Kielder Water has reduced downstream flood risk since 1982. Estimates from single-site, pooled estimates and historical information are compared. It is concluded that the return period of the observed flood was around 71 years on the lower Tyne and was probably the largest flood since 1815.     

基于信号整体与局部特征的地震数据自动处理方法研究

提出一种基于信号整体与局部特征的地震数据自动处理新方法, 该方法不同于以往仅采用包络线互相关来直接检测事件. 新方法依然按照检测、 识别、 关联和定位等4个步骤进行处理, 但在进行单个震相信号检测的同时, 也检测信号波列并利用其包络线特征来识别和关联震相. 文中详细阐述了数据处理过程中如何定义一个波列及抽取和应用其特征. 相关的数据处理技术目前已成功应用于区域台网的日常数据处理分析中. 作为例子, 给出了对新疆区域台网连续16天数据进行测试处理的结果. 实际应用结果表明, 这种新方法可以大幅度降低自动处理结果的误检、 漏检率, 在实际应用中具有很好的前景.