Declining Arctic Ocean oil and gas developments: Opportunities to improve governance and environmental pollution control

There has been global interest in the exploitation of rich hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic for decades. However, recent low oil prices, a low carbon economy climate agenda, and technical challenges of Arctic oil extraction have curbed interest in these Arctic resources. Despite a recent reluctance to explore and develop an offshore Arctic drilling industry, a resurgence in oil and gas prices could spark renewed interests that could pose unacceptable risks of pollution from oil spills. These risks are further compounded by complex governance and sovereignty issues between circumpolar nations. This paper (i) compares cycles of Arctic hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation activity with global energy prices; (ii) outlines current pollution abatement techniques under pan-Arctic national regulations to identify potential gaps; (iii) describes current international frameworks for Arctic governance to highlight how problems could arise if offshore oil drilling returns to the Arctic and associated spills migrate to international waters; and (iv) provides policy recommendations to aid both national and international policy-makers regarding pollution abatement methods for future Arctic drilling.     

美国北极地区能源开发政策演变

随着全球气候变暖,各国对北极能源的开发愈发重视。美国北极地区的能源储量巨大,但鉴于美国的北极战略核心是国家安全、环境保护和国际合作,其能源开发相对滞后。2013年奥巴马政府出台了《北极地区国家战略》,开始对北极能源开发予以特别关注。特朗普政府执政期间,加强了对北极近海油气能源开发的支持力度。2021年拜登总统上任后,美国的北极能源政策以气候变化为核心,意在推动北极地区的绿色发展。美国的北极能源开发始终面临着法律、资金、技术、环保等各种问题的制约,这也决定了美国北极地区能源开发的复杂性和长期性。我国宜通过制定北极能源合作开发战略,重视北极等极寒地区绿色技术的应用和研发,推动与美国在北极地区气候变化和能源转型的合作,深化国际协作与交流,积极参与北极治理等举措,促进我国对北极能源资源的开发利用。     

Attitudes of Scottish fishers towards marine renewable energy

Development of the offshore renewable energy sector will have implications for the fishing industry by limiting access and navigation, and potential impacts (both positive and negative) upon commercially fished species. Fishers' attitudes and behaviour have been found to influence the success of fishery management measures, compliance with regulations, and Marine Protected Areas; suggesting they may also affect offshore renewable energy developments. A postal survey was conducted to investigate fishers’ attitudes towards offshore energy extraction and any influential factors in terms of fishing experience and practice, association membership, location, and knowledge of offshore renewable energy installations. The most important factor influencing fishers’ opinions was whether they knew of a nearby offshore development, followed by location (whether they operate from the mainland or the islands); and despite concerns regarding the perceived impacts and mitigation the majority of fishers held either neutral or positive attitudes towards offshore renewable energy extraction.     

北极地区油气资源的空间分布状况及特征分析

近年来,北极地区油气资源备受瞩目,北极地区油气资源开发利用开展得如火如荼,为北极国家能源产量增长带来了新的契机。文章以北极国家为出发点,采用文献梳理法,系统研究俄罗斯、美国、挪威、加拿大等北极国家在北极地区的油气资源勘探、开发情况;采用统计分析法,分析北极地区待发现油气资源与已发现油气资源的空间分布特征。研究发现,北极地区的油气资源在空间上呈现出极不均衡的特点。伴随着油气勘探技术的突破以及北极航道的逐渐开通,北极国家纷纷加快北极地区油气开发活动的进程,目前北极国家油气开发活动主要在陆地,而未来将逐步迈向北极近海。中国作为北极事物的重要利益攸关方,可以积极与北极国家开展合作,进而参与到北极地区油气资源的开发进程。     

From Scotland to New Scotland: Constructing a sectoral marine plan for tidal energy for Nova Scotia

Competing usage of marine space has prompted several coastal nations to implement marine spatial planning (MSP). While progressive governments promote the deployment of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in order to meet renewable energy capacity and greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets, offshore RETs become another player operating within a finite and already stressed marine environment. This paper applies the sectoral MSP process employed by Scotland to the Nova Scotia context in order to draft a MSP for the province's tidal energy sector. Applicable legislation is reviewed in order to establish the regulatory authorities with powers to plan for both the marine development and ecosystem protection agendas. The scoping process identifies suitable resource areas based on the operational parameters of commercially viable tidal current turbines (TCTs), while the sustainability appraisal identifies areas of cultural, industry, ecological, and socioeconomic constraint and exclusion. Plan option areas emanating from the applied methodology demonstrated a 238.345 km² (98.1%) increase in suitable TCT deployment area than the marine renewable energy areas identified in Nova Scotia's Marine Renewable Energy Act which did not undertake such a methodology.     

海上石油国际合作项目的风险评价特点分析

如何进行海上石油国际合作是今后我国3大石油公司在国际能源合作市场中经常面临的问题，如何看待海上石油国际合作项目中的各种风险因素是进行项目经济评价中最复杂的问题。从海外海上油气田勘探开发的经验教训中探讨了地质风险、技术风险、经济风险、政治风险诸因素对项目经济评价的影响。     

Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade

About half of the world's oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply are traded by ship. Accordingly, any significant shift in the size and shape of the global energy system has important consequences for shipping, which underpins international trade and supports economic development. The Paris Agreement requires an acceleration of the drive towards energy system decarbonisation. Yet, the International Maritime Organisation's understanding of the future is more in line with the high-carbon scenarios analysed here. This paper is a first comprehensive and global assessment of implications of fundamental changes to global and regional energy systems for international shipping, under-researched in energy scenarios consistent with deep decarbonisation. It concludes that, despite uncertainties (particularly with negative emission technologies), fossil fuel trade by the middle of the century will almost certainly be significantly lower under low-carbon than under high-carbon scenarios, and (for oil and coal) lower than in 2012. As to bioenergy and captured carbon dioxide, while their supply is expected to increase during a low-carbon transition, worldwide shipped trade in these commodities will not necessarily grow, based on the analysis in this paper. In other words, if the low-carbon futures envisioned in the Paris Agreement materialise, energy-related shipping will likely decline (by a quarter for oil and by 50% for coal in the median < 2 °C scenarios by 2050), with significant ramifications for policies and regulation in the shipping sector and international trade.     

The diminishing age gap between polar cruisers and their ships: A new reason to codify the IMO Guidelines for ships operating in polar waters and make them mandatory?

Ice, harsh weather, severe cold, and remoteness increase the risks of navigating the Arctic. Robust ships and shipboard systems to support routine operations and effectively respond to accidents and emergency situations are necessary. In spite of these challenges, the cruise ship industry is reportedly preparing to expand its passenger capacity, destinations, and operating season in the Arctic. An examination of the Arctic cruise ship fleet shows that the most capable ships are approaching the end of their service lives and may be replaced during the next decade. A window of opportunity is open for the international community to act on concerns about the safety of cruise ships in Polar Regions by codifying and making mandatory the International Maritime Organization's Guidelines for ships operating in Polar waters. A mandatory code would provide regulatory guidance to ship-builders at a critical point in the process of procuring new Arctic cruise ships and ensure that suitably constructed and outfitted ships would serve Arctic cruisers.     

The State of Rhode Island's pioneering marine spatial plan

The state of Rhode Island's Ocean Special Area Management Plan (Ocean SAMP) is the first marine spatial plan in the United States to be formally approved by the federal government as an element of a state's Coastal Management Program. The 3800 km² Ocean SAMP region includes waters under both state and federal jurisdiction. The Ocean SAMP applies the inclusive, ecosystem-based approach to marine spatial planning recommended by the National Ocean Commission in 2004 that is a feature of the National Ocean Policy promulgated in 2010. It places within a larger spatial planning context the impact assessment process that is the basis for the issuance of leases and permits requested by a developer for a specified activity at a defined marine site. The Ocean SAMP was prepared over a two and a half year period of information generation, analysis, consultation, planning and policy making prompted by the need to identify potentially suitable sites for anticipated offshore wind farms. Its highly consultative approach builds upon the 30 years of experience of the Rhode Island Coastal Program in developing and implementing special area management plans (SAMPs) for coastal and marine areas where conflicts over needs for both development and conservation demand special attention and negotiation among stakeholders with different interests. The phases in the development and approval of the Ocean SAMP, and the prospects for successful implementation are examined through frameworks suggested for the preparation of a governance baseline put forward by the international Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) program.     

Integrated terrestrial and marine planning in England’s coastal inter-tidal zone: Assessing the operational effectiveness of the Coastal Concordat

In many countries, the regulation of activities and development in the marine environment has begun to evolve from a compartmentalised, fragmented, sectoral and uncoordinated system into a more strategic, comprehensive, integrated and transparent one. A remaining challenge, however, is the effective integration of marine and terrestrial planning, because the tools and mechanisms necessary for its achievement have been slow to be implemented. The introduction of the England's Coastal Concordat in 2013, as a voluntary framework for better integrating marine and terrestrial planning consents, represents an atypical mechanism to secure these goals. This paper is a preliminary survey of the perceived effectiveness of the Coastal Concordat, based on a survey of 32 professionals from the terrestrial planning authorities, marine statutory agencies and marine-sector businesses. While this evaluation is made less than two years after the introduction of the Coastal Concordat, it is important to undertake a preliminary examination, from various stakeholder perspectives, of the factors likely to be influential in the integration of regulatory systems, before the approach is ‘rolled out’ across other parts of England's inter-tidal coastal zone. The results indicate that the Coastal Concordat has produced benefits for marine planning in coastal areas, but that these improvements are largely experienced within the public sector in terms of better communication, early engagement, and a single point of contact. The marine sector businesses are more neutral about the benefits of the Concordat. It is clear, however, that marine sector businesses must participate in the formulation of any reforms if an effective integrated system of planning and management of coastal environments is to be achieved.     

海上风牧融合的难题与挑战

在海洋战略和清洁能源战略背景下,我国围绕海洋牧场和海上风电开展了规模化建设并取得了巨大成就。但工程成本高昂、海洋生境破碎化和用海冲突等问题日益显著,国内外由此开展了海上风电和海洋牧场融合发展的试点与探索。文章整理分析了国内外相关研究和试点工作,针对海上风牧融合发展的现状以及在经济和政策可行性、选址与规划、鱼种选择、配套设备开发、生态影响评估（噪声、电磁场、底座干扰和重金属迁移等）等方面的难题与挑战提出建议。     

基于ERA5再分析资料的中国近海浅水区域风能潜力评估

风能潜力评估是风电场选址工作的基础工作。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5再分析数据,采用风功率密度（Wind Power Density,WPD）中值、容量系数（Capacity Factor,CF）以及鲁棒性变异系数（Robust Coefficient of Variation, RCoV）三种指标,对中国近海浅水区域的风能潜力进行评估,研究结果表明:（1）台湾海峡和东海南部风能资源最为丰富并且风能利用率最高,风功率密度中值和容量系数分别为400~900 和0.45~0.7。总体来看,风功率密度中值从渤海到台湾海峡,呈逐渐增加的趋势,从台湾海峡到琼州湾,呈逐渐减小的趋势,容量系数大小分布情况相似。（2）鲁棒性变异系数大小无明显分布规律,广东湛江近岸海域鲁棒性变异系数在0.70~0.75之间,风能发电量最为稳定,但该地区的风能资源丰富程度较低。（3）福州近岸海域不仅有丰富的风能资源和风能利用率,且发电量较为稳定。在不考虑其它因素的影响下,是中国近海浅水区域建设海上风电场的最佳地点。     

英国海上风电行业发展前景展望 ——基于差价合约制度的分析

英国海上风电产业起步较晚,但发展迅猛,成为全球海上风电产业的领头羊。英国海上风电产业扶持政策依次经历过非化石燃料义务制度、可再生能源义务制度、差价合约制度等阶段。差价合约制度作为可再生能源义务制度的后继制度,在制度上有较多的创新之处,有效地推动了英国海上风电产业的发展。文章基于差价合约制度与可再生能源义务制度的分析和比较,结合英国海上风电2030年规划目标,深入分析发现差价合约制度对英国海上风电产业发展具有较大的推动力。研究表明,差价合约制度改进了可再生能源义务制度的不足之处,能够充分利用市场机制提高海上风电企业的投资热情,降低消费者的电力消费成本,并可减轻政府的财政压力,从而推动英国海上风电产业的快速发展,这对我国具有一定借鉴意义。     

海上风电工程对海洋生物影响的研究进展

随着世界各国对能源安全、生态环境、气候变化等问题日益重视,加快发展风电已成为国际社会推动能源转型发展、应对全球气候变化的普遍共识和一致行动。过去十余年,我国海上风电产业受益于国家政策的大力推动而蓬勃发展,大有乘势崛起,赶超其他清洁能源的势头。相比陆上风电场,海上风电场对环境的影响较小,但其开发实施以及运行对海洋生态环境和资源开发的累积影响还尚不明确。本文系统全面地梳理了海上风电工程对鸟类、鱼类、海洋哺乳动物、底栖生物、浮游生物及海洋生物多样性等影响的研究进展,总结了海上风电环境影响研究的现状。结合我国实际,提出了将科学研究与海上风电工程环境影响评价紧密结合,开展海上风电项目对区域生态环境影响的研究等有关建议。     

In quest of an Arctic legal regime : Marine regionalism — a concept of international law evaluated

This article examines the regional approach as a solution to prevent marine pollution in the Arctic Ocean, which may result from land-based sources, offshore operations, and international shipping. It is argued that both the global and unilateral approach are inadequate to protect the polar sea appropriately — for the sake of its relatively untouched environment, the coastal areas of the Arctic states, and for the culture and life style of the indigenous inhabitants. Consequently, this essay assesses the status quo of international marine pollution control as established by conventions and other instruments and leads, after an outline of present regional treaties of the various marine regions, to an application of marine regionalism to the Arctic Ocean.     

Satellite monitoring of ice features to ensure safety of offshore operations in the Arctic seas

Methods for processing satellite data on ice features that pose a threat to the safety of offshore operations in the Arctic seas are considered. They are divided into interactive, automated, and automatic methods. The methods are illustrated by examples of archival satellite data on the Russian Arctic sector. Radar and optical data have been used as the satellite information source. It is shown that the successful satellite monitoring of dangerous ice features requires the optimal combination of satellite observations at various stages that provide for a synergistic approach to the data assimilation of different spectral bands obtained using different spacecraft.     

Towards best environmental practice for cetacean conservation in developing Scotland's marine renewable energy

Marine renewable energy is seen as an important component of the UK's future energy strategy and contribution to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The UK aims to generate a total of 33 GW (gigawatts) of offshore wind energy. Its implementation strategy includes the development of ten offshore wind farms within Scottish territorial waters. In addition, between 1000 MW (megawatts) and 2600 MW of marine renewable energy generating capacity could be achieved in Scotland using wave and tidal power devices. However, there are negative environmental impacts associated with marine renewable energy. Intense noise is produced during pile driving, drilling and dredging operations with potential consequences for cetaceans. There are also increases in vessel activities during exploration, maintenance and construction with association risks of disturbance and collisions. Some underwater devices will be large and may be positioned in arrays across the habitats that cetaceans frequent. The consequences of encounters between cetaceans and such devices are as yet unknown. It is recommended that the Scottish Government complete full and transparent Marine Spatial Planning, including consideration of cumulative impacts, before moving to license appropriate sites.     

北极海冰输出区域海冰运动变化特征及其与北极航道适航性的关系

随着北极地区气候变暖的加剧,北极海冰正在急剧消融,海冰的减少增加了北极地区航道的适航性。本文利用遥感数据反演得到的海冰运动产品对北极海冰输出区域以及东北航道以北区域的海冰运动特征进行了量化。结果显示,从北极中央海域向弗拉姆海峡以及格陵兰海流出海冰的南向位移量呈现出显著增长趋势,海冰的平均南向位移量在2007-2014年间达到1511 km,是2007年之前（617 km）的两倍以上,反映了北极穿极流（TDS）强度在不断增强。通过长时间序列分析发现,春季东北航道以北区域的海冰北向漂移速度在喀拉海呈现+0.04 厘米/秒/年的显著增长趋势（P<0.05）。海冰北向漂移对于东北航道的开通具有显著的影响,在拉普捷夫海与喀拉海,海冰北向运动速度与航道适航期的决定系数分别达到0.33（P<0.001）和0.15（P<0.05）。东西伯利亚海、拉普捷夫海以及喀拉海存在冰间湖区域的春季海冰面积变化与航道的适航期密切相关,海冰的北向漂移对拉普捷夫海和喀拉海的海冰面积减少也有显著影响,这说明北向漂移促进了海冰的离岸输送,造成海冰面积减少的同时形成冰间水道或冰间湖促使航道开通。为探究大气环流指数对海冰运动以及东北航道适航期的影响,本文利用大气再分析数据计算了中央北极指数（CAI）和北极大气偶极子异常（DA）指数。相关性分析表明,CAI比DA更能解释东北航道的适航期,而且CAI能够解释北极海冰输出区域海冰南向位移量变化的45%。最近10年,夏季正相位的CAI进一步加强,通过加强海冰离岸输运和冰间湖活动加剧了东北航道区域海冰变薄及其强度变弱,从而促进了东北航道的开通。     

Meridional energy flux in the Arctic from data of the radiosonde archive IGRA

The meridional energy transport into high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is an important climate-forming factor in the Arctic. This work presents the results of calculating the meridional energy flux across 70° N based on the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) data from the radio sounding of the atmosphere. The long-term mean energy flux over the period 1992–2007 in the layer from the Earth’s surface to 30 hPa is 70.6 W m^?2. The fraction of the sensible heat flux is 23.2 W m^?2, i.e., 33% of the total energy flux; the fraction of the latent heat flux is 28.0 W m^?2 (40% of the total energy flux); the fraction of the potential energy is 20.0 W m^?2 (27%); and the fraction of the kinetic energy is 0.53 W m^?2, i.e., less than 1% of the total energy flux. The vertical structure of the flux shows that the main energy transport into the Arctic takes place in the middle troposphere-lower stratosphere layer, whereas the energy is transported mainly out of the Arctic in the lower troposphere, which agrees well with the schematic notion about the polar circulation cell. The spatial structure of the flux shows that the key regions with a positive (directed into the Arctic) energy flux are located in the vicinity of 160° E (the northwestern part of Eurasia, Pacific sector) and 50° W (Greenland sector). The regions with a negative (directed out of the Arctic) energy flux are located near 120° W (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) and from 20° E to 90° E (Atlantic sector). In the period from 1992 to 2007, the meridional energy transport into the Arctic weakened by ?0.26 W m^?2 yr^?1. The changes were mutually correlated; namely, positive and negative energy fluxes weakened in amplitude, almost without changing their locations.     

Involving the public in the impact assessment of offshore renewable energy facilities

Public participation in decision-making about development has many benefits especially in the coastal zone and in the near-shore marine environment. This research expands the discussion of public involvement in decisions about marine resource use by examining public participation in environmental impact assessment as relevant for offshore renewable energy facilities. A review of empirical and theoretical research supports the development of a framework for further analysis. The framework consists of five main features: (1) effective communication, (2) broad-based inclusion, (3) prioritization, (4) early three-way learning, and (5) alternatives analysis. The paper's concluding sections explore the relevance of such a framework and indicate possible applications.