Statistical analysis of tropical disturbances over the South China Sea during 1997�C2006

Tropical disturbances over the South China Sea (SCS) during the period of 1997-2006 are analyzed using the Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products. A total of 158 tropical disturbances were formed over the SCS from 1997 to 2006, with 54 de-veloping tropical disturbances which developed into tropical depressions and 104 non-developing tropical disturbances which never developed into tropical depressions. The development rate of tropical disturbances into tropical depressions was 34.18% in these ten years. During the period of this study, total annual numbers of tropical disturbances and developing tropical disturbances over the SCS had significant decreasing trends; however, the development rate of tropical disturbances had an insignificant increasing trend.     

Diagnosis of seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea using a genesis potential index

This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.     

Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea by ENSO Modoki during boreal summer

This study examines the modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea(SCS) by the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Modoki during the boreal summer. Results reveal that there were more tropical cyclones(TCs) formed over the SCS during central Pacific warming years and less TC frequency during central Pacific cooling years. How different environmental factors(including low-level relative vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential(GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for central Pacific warming and cooling years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SCS in different ENSO Modoki phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results suggest that the vertical wind shear and low-level relative vorticity, which are associated with the ENSO Modoki-induced anomalous circulations in Matsuno-Gill patterns, make the largest contributions to the ENSO Modoki modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS as implied by the GP index. These results highlight the important roles of dynamic factors in the modulation of TC frequency over the SCS by the ENSO Modoki during the boreal summer.     

Anomalies of asian summer monsoon related to ssta in the south China Sea and the tropical pacific

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Does the Asian monsoon modulate tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea?

To investigate whether the Asian monsoon influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS), TCs (including tropical storms and typhoons) over the SCS are analyzed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center dataset from 1945 to 2009. Results show an increasing trend in the frequencies of TC-all (all TCs over the SCS) and TY-all (all typhoons over the SCS), due mainly to an increase in the number of TCs moving into the SCS after development elsewhere. Little change is seen in the number of TCs that form in the SCS. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the frequency of typhoons (TY) shows a similar oscillation as that of TCs, i.e., a dominant periodicity of 8-16 years around the 1970s for all TC activity, except for TC-mov (TCs that moved into the SCS from the western North Pacific). To examine the relationship between typhoon activity and the summer monsoon, a correlation analysis was performed that considered typhoons, TCs, and five monsoon indexes. The analysis reveals statistically significant negative correlation between the strength of the Southwest Asian summer monsoon and typhoon activity over the SCS, which likely reflects the effect of the monsoon on TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and subsequent movement into the SCS. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between TY-loc (typhoons that developed from TCs formed over the SCS) and the South China Sea summer monsoon and Southeast Asian summer monsoon.     

An interdecadal change of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea in the early 1990s

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 (27). During the TC peak season (July-September, JAS), there were 43TCs from 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level (850-500hPa) humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.     

The Upper Ocean Thermal Structure and the Genesis Locations of Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea

The relationship between the upper ocean thermal structure and the genesis locations of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated by using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） best-track archives and high resolution （1/4 degree） temperature analyses of the world＇s oceans in this paper In the monthly mean genesis positions of TCs from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, the mean sea surface temperature （SST） was 28.8℃ and the mean depth of 26℃ water was 53.1 m. From the monthly distribution maps of genesis positions of TCs, SST and the depth of 26℃ water in the SCS, we discovered that there existed regions with SST exceeding 26℃ and 26℃ water depth exceeding 50m where no tropical cyclones formed from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, which suggests that there were other factors unfavorable for TC formation in these regions.     

Features of ocean surface winds observed by the QuikSCAT satellite before tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea

Ocean surface winds observed by the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite prior to the geneses of 36 tropical cy- clones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) are investigated in this paper. The results show that there are areas with negative mean horizontal divergence around the TC genesis locations three days prior to TC formation. The divergence term [-(f ζ)( u/ x v/ y)] in the vorticity equation is calculated based upon the QuikSCAT ocean surface wind data. The calculated mean divergence term is about 10.3 times the mean relative vorticity increase rate around the TC genesis position one day prior to TC genesis, which shows the important contributions of the divergence term to the vorticity increase prior to TC formation. It is suggested that criteria related with the divergence and divergence term be applied in early detections of tropical cyclogenesis using the QuikSCAT satellite data.     

Numerical simulation of the genesis of typhoon Durian (2001) over the South China Sea: The effect of sea surface temperature

Typhoon Durian (2001),which formed over the South China Sea (SCS),was simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The genesis of typhoon Durian which formed in the monsoon trough was reproduced by numerical simulations. The simulated results agree reasonably well with observations. Two numerical experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) was either decreased or increased were performed to investigate the impact of the SST on the genesis of the ty-phoon. When the SST was decreased by 5℃ uniformly for all grids in the model,the winds calculated became divergent in the lower troposphere and convergent in the upper troposphere,creating conditions in which the amount of total latent heat release (TLHR) was low and the tropical cyclone (TC) could not be formed. This simulation shows the importance of the convergence in the lower tropo-sphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere for the genesis of the initial vortex. When the SST was increased by 1℃ uni-formly for all grids,a stronger typhoon was generated in the results with an increase of about 10 m s-1 in the maximum surface wind speed. Only minor differences in intensity were noted during the first 54 h in the simulation with the warmer SST,but apparent dif-ferences in intensity occurred after 54 h when the vortex began to strengthen to typhoon strength. This experiment shows that warmer SST will speed the strengthening from tropical storm strength to typhoon strength and increase the maximum intensity reached,while only minor impact can be seen during the earlier stage of genesis before the TC reaches the tropical storm strength. The results sug-gest that the amount of TLHR may be the dominant factor in determining the formation and the intensification of the TC.     

Effect of sea spray on the numerical simulation of super typhoon ‘Ewiniar’

To study the potential effect of sea spray on the evolution of typhoons,two kinds of sea spray flux parameterizationschemes developed by Andreas (2005) and Andreas and Wang (2006) and Fairall et al.(1994) respectively are incorporated into theregional atmospheric Mesoscale Model version 3.6 (MM5V3) of Pennsylvania State University/National Center for AtmosphericResearch (PSU/NCAR) and the coupled atmosphere-sea spray modeling system is applied to simulate a Western Pacific super ty-phoon Ewiniar in 2006.The simulation results demonstrate that sea spray can lead to a significant increase in heat fluxes at theair-sea interface and the simulated typhoon's intensity.Compared with the results without sea spray,the minimum sea level pressurereduces about 8hPa after taking account of sea spray by Fairall et al.'s parameterization (1994) and about 5hPa by Andreas' (2005)and Andreas and Wang's (2006) parameterization at the end of the model integration,while the maximum 10m wind speed increasesabout 17% and 15% on average,respectively,through the entire simulation time period.Taking sea spray into account also causessignificant changes in Tropical Cyclone (TC) structure due to an enhancement of water vapor and heat transferred from the sea sur-face to the air; therefore,the center structure of the typhoon becomes more clearly defined and the wind speed around the typhooneye is stronger in numerical experiments.The simulations show that different sea spray flux parameterizations make different modifications to the TC structure.     

Meridional Variation of the 1955-2003 Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Associated with El Ni(n)o Events

The Sea Level Anomaly-Torque (SLAT, relative to a reference location in the Pacific Ocean), which means the total torque of the gravity forces of sea waters with depths equal to the Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is defined in this study. The time series of the SLAT from merged altimeter data (1993-2003) had a great meridional variation during the 1997-1998 El Ni(n)o event. By using historical upper layer temperature data (1955-2003) for the tropical Pacific Ocean, the temperature-based SLAT is also calculated and the meridional variation can be found in the historical El Ni(n)o events (1955-2003), which suggests that the meridional shifts of the sea level anomaly are also intrinsic oscillating modes of the El Ni(n)o cycles like the zonal shifts.     

State and fate of the remaining tropical mountain glaciers in australasia using satellite imagery

Tropical glaciers are extremely sensitive to a warming climate. In this paper, the evolution of the remaining tropical glaciers in Australasia(Irian Jaya, Indonesia) during the period 1988-2015 was quantified. Landsat series images, a digital elevation model from SRTM, and previously published data were used. Estimated total glacier area in 1988, 1993, 1997 and 2004 was 3.85 km2±0.13 km2, 3.01 km2±0.08 km2, 2.49 km2±0.07 km2 and 1.725 km2 ±0.042 km2, respectively. Only 0.58 km2±0.016 km2 glacierized area remained in 2015 in Puncak Jaya, which is about 84.9% loss in just 27 years. If this rate continued, the remaining tropical glaciers in Australasia would disappear in the 2020 s. Timeseries analysis of climate variables showed significant positive trends in air temperature(0.009°C per year) and relative humidity(0.43% per year) but no considerable tendency was observed for precipitation. Warming climate together with mining activities would accelerate loss of glacier coverage in this region.     

Application of SCS model in estimation of runoff from small watershed in Loess Plateau of China

Soil Conservation Service （SCS） model, developed by U. S. Soil Conservation Service in 1972, has been widely applied in the estimation of runoff from an small watershed. In this paper, based on the remote sensing geo-information data of land use and soil classification all obtained from Landsat images in 1996 and 1997 and conventional data of hydrology and meteorology, the SCS model was investigated for simulating the surface runoff for single rainstorm in Wangdonggou watershed, a typical small watershed in the Loess Plateau, located in Changwu County of Shaanxi Province of China. Wangdonggou watershed was compartmentalized into 28 sub-units according to natural draining division, and the table of curve number （CN） values fitting for Wangdonggou watershed was also presented. During the flood period from 1996 to 1997, the hydrograph of calculated runoff process using the SCS model and the hydrograph of observed runoff process coincided very well in height as well as shape, and the model was of high precision above 75%. It is indicated that the SCS model is legitimate and can be successfully used to simulate the runoff generation and the runoff process of typical small watershed based on the remote sensing geo-information in the Loess Plateau.     

Meridional Variation of the 1955-2003 Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Associated with El Nifio Events

The Sea Level Anomaly-Torque （SLAT, relative to a reference location in the Pacific Ocean）, which means the total torque of the gravity forces of sea waters with depths equal to the Sea Level Anomaly （S/A） in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is defined in this study. The time series of the SLAT from merged altimeter data （1993-2003） had a great meridional variation during the 1997-1998 E1 Nifio event. By using historical upper layer temperature data （1955-2003） for the tropical Pacific Ocean, the temperature-based SLAT is also calculated and the meridional variation can be found in the historical E1 Nifio events （1955-2003）, which suggests that the meridional shifts of the sea level anomaly are also intrinsic oscillating modes of the E1 Nifio cycles like the zonal shifts.     

Water masses in the South China Sea and water exchange between the Pacific and the South China Sea

Water masses in the South China Sea (SCS) were identified and analyzed with the data collected in the summer and winter of 1998. The distributions of temperature and salinity near the Bashi Channel (the Luzon Strait) were analyzed by using the data obtained in July and December of 1997. Based on the results from the data collected in the winter of 1998, waters in the open sea areas of the SCS were divided into six water masses: the Surface Water Mass of the SCS (S), the Subsurface Water Mass of the SCS (U), the Subsurface-Intermediate Water Mass of the SCS (UI), the Intermediate Water Mass of the SCS (I), the Deep Water Mass of the SCS (D) and the Bottom Water Mass of the SCS(B). For the summer of 1998, the Kuroshio Surface Water Mass (KS) and the Kuroshio Subsurface Water Mass (KU) were also identified in the SCS. But no Kuroshio water was found to pass the 119.5°E meridian and enter the SCS in the time of winter observations. The Sulu Sea Water (SSW) intruded into the SCS through the Mindoro Channel between 50–75 m in the summer of 1998. However, the data obtained in the summer and winter of 1997 indicated that water from the Pacific had entered the SCS through the northern part of the Luzon Strait in these seasons, but water from the SCS had entered the Pacific through the southern part of the Strait. These phenomena might correlate with the 1998 El-Niño event.     

桂林三叠世古地理古气候及热带岩溶发育程度探讨

文章对桂林三叠世时的古地理及古气候条件、晚三叠世内陆湖盆的发育及堆积物和残留特征进行了描述，探讨了中晚三叠世桂林热带岩溶发育的程度。认为中晚三叠世是桂林热带岩溶极为强烈发育时期，也是岩溶洞穴强烈发育的一个时期，从此奠定了桂林热带岩溶地貌轮廓雏形。迄后的地质历史中，其热带岩溶基本上是在此基础上的继承发育。     

Study of the Wind Conditions in the South China Sea and Its Adjacent Sea Area

An increasing number of marine structures have been built for coastal protection and marine development in recent years,and wind,which is crucial to marine structures,should be analyzed.Therefore,typhoon frequency,wind climate,wind energy assess-ment,and extreme wind speed in the South China Sea(SCS)are investigated in detail in this study.The data are obtained from the China Meteorological Administration,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,and the National Centers for Envi-ronmental Prediction.The offshore wind energy potential is analyzed at five sites near the coast.The spatial and monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones for different intensity categories are analyzed.The extreme wind speed is fitted by five distribution models,and the generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution is selected as the most suitable function according to the goodness of fit.The spa-tial distributions of extreme wind speeds in the SCS are plotted on the basis of the GEV distribution and ERA5 data sets.The influ-ences of the distribution models and data sets on the calculated results are discussed.Moreover,the monthly extreme wind speed and comparison with the results of previous studies are analyzed.This study provides a reference for the design of wind turbines.     

Observed characteristics of atmospheric ducts over the South China Sea in autumn

The observed characteristics of lower atmospheric ducts over the South China Sea(SCS) were analyzed based on Global Position Systerm(GPS) radiosonde data collected four times daily during autumn open cruises from 2006 to 2012.Duct occurrence,thickness,and strength over the SCS were about 40%,150-m thick,and 8 M units,respectively,which were larger than during the summer monsoon period.Most ducts occurred at heights 1 500 m and these ducts easily trap electromagnetic wave clusters with wavelengths 2 m.Diurnal variation of the SCS ducts appeared evident.They occurred more often at midnight at higher altitudes(about 1 100 m),with a thickest layer of about 145 m and less frequently during the evening at lower altitudes(about 800 m),with a thinnest layer of about 125 m.Moreover,ducts during the daytime at a mean height of about 900 m,with the greatest strength of about 10 M units.Furthermore,all duct variables observed over the SCS in autumn decreased from north to south.These findings are useful not only in the design of radar and communication systems,but also for evaluating possible effects of anomalous propagation on meteorological radar and military applications.     

Numerical simulation of wave field in the South China Sea using WAVEWATCH III

Wave fi elds of the South China Sea(SCS) from 1976 to 2005 were simulated using WAVEWATCH III by inputting high-resolution reanalysis wind fi eld datasets assimilated from several meteorological data sources. Comparisons of wave heights between WAVEWATCH III and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and buoy data show a good agreement. Our results show seasonal variation of wave direction as follows: 1. During the summer monsoon(April–September), waves from south occur from April through September in the southern SCS region, which prevail taking about 40% of the time; 2. During the winter monsoon(December–March), waves from northeast prevail throughout the SCS for 56% of the period; 3. The dominant wave direction in SCS is NE. The seasonal variation of wave height H s in SCS shows that in spring, H s ≥1 m in the central SCS region and is less than 1 m in other areas. In summer, H s is higher than in spring. During September–November, infl uenced by tropical cyclones, H s is mostly higher than 1 m. East of Hainan Island, H s 2 m. In winter, H s reaches its maximum value infl uenced by the north-east monsoon, and heights over 2 m are found over a large part of SCS. Finally, we calculated the extreme wave parameters in SCS and found that the extreme wind speed and wave height for the 100-year return period for SCS peaked at 45 m/s and 19 m, respectively, SE of Hainan Island and decreased from north to south.     

Imprint of the ENSO on rainfall and latent heating variability over the Southern South China Sea from TRMM observations

Analyses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets revealed a prominent interannual variation in the convective-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern South China Sea (SCS) during the winter monsoon between 1998 and 2010. Although the height of maximum latent heating remained nearly constant at around 7 km in all of the years, the year-to-year changes in the magnitudes of maximum latent heating over the region were noticeable. The interannual variations of the convective- stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern SCS were highly anti-correlated with the Niño-3 index, with more (less) rainfall and latent heating during La Niña (El Niño) years. Analysis of the large-scale environment revealed that years of active rainfall and latent heating corresponded to years of large deep convergence and relative humidity at 600 hPa. The moisture budget diagnosis indicated that the interannual variation of humidity at 600 hPa was largely modulated by the vertical moisture advection. The year-to-year changes in rainfall over the southern SCS were mainly caused by the interannual variations of the dynamic component associated with anomalous upward motions in the middle troposphere, while the interannual variations of the thermodynamic component associated with changes in surface specific humidity played a minor role. Larger latent heating over the southern SCS during La Niña years may possibly further enhance the local Hadley circulation over the SCS in the wintertime.