Flood hazard mapping in Southern Brazil: a combination of flow frequency analysis and the HAND model

The Itajaí River basin is one of the areas most affected by flood-related disasters in Brazil. Flood hazard maps based on digital elevation models (DEM) are an important alternative in the absence of detailed hydrological data and for application in large areas. We developed a flood hazard mapping methodology by combining flow frequency analysis with the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model – f2HAND – and applied it in three municipalities in the Itajaí River basin. The f2HAND performance was evaluated through comparison with observed 2011 flood extent maps. Model performance and sensitivity were tested for different DEM resolutions, return periods and streamflow data from stations located upstream and downstream on the main river. The flood hazard mapping with our combined approach matched 92% of the 2011 flood event. We found that the f2HAND model has low sensitivity to DEM resolution and high sensitivity to area threshold of channel initiation.     

An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors

A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear trends and significant correlations at different time scales.     

Wavelet‐based regularization of the extracted topographic index from high‐resolution topography for hydro‐geomorphic applications

High‐resolution topography, e.g. 1‐m digital elevation model (DEM) from light detection and ranging (LiDAR), offers opportunity for accurate identification of topographic features of relevance for hydrologic and geomorphologic modelling. Yet, the computation of some derived topographic properties, such as the topographic index (TI), is characterized by daunting challenges that hamper the full exploration of topography‐based models. Particular problems, for example, arise when a distributed (or semi‐distributed) rainfall–runoff model is applied to high‐resolution DEMs. Indeed, the characteristic dependency between landscape resolution and the computed TI distribution results in the formation of un‐physical, unconnected saturated zones, which in turn cause unrealistic representations of rainfall–runoff dynamics. In this study, we present a methodology based on a multi‐resolution wavelet transformation that, by means of a soft‐thresholding scheme on the wavelet coefficients, filters the noise of high‐resolution topography to construct regularized sets of locally smoother topography on which the TI is computed. While the methodology needs a somewhat arbitrary definition of the wavelet coefficients threshold, our study shows that when the information content (entropy) of the TI distribution is used as a filtering efficiency metric, a critical threshold automatically emerges in the landscape reconstruction. The methodology is demonstrated using 1‐m LiDAR data for the Elder Creek River basin in California. While the proposed case study uses a TOPMODEL approach, the methodology can be extended to different topography‐based models and is not limited to hydrological applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Northern Dvina runoff simulation using land-surface model SWAP and global databases

The potentialities of a method for evaluating runoff from Northern Dvina basin, which is based on a model of heat and water exchange between land surface and the atmosphere (SWAP) in combination with input data based on global databases on land surface parameters and different variants of meteorological data (derived from reanalysis data; reanalysis data hybridized with ground based and satellite observations; observational data of meteorological stations situated in the river basin). In all three cases, an optimization was applied to some key model parameters, including the characteristics of the land surface and correction factors for precipitation and incoming radiation.     

Analysis of long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin

To analyse the long‐term water balance of the Yellow River basin, a new hydrological model was developed and applied to the source area of the basin. The analysis involved 41 years (1960–2000) of daily observation data from 16 meteorological stations. The model is composed of the following three sub‐models: a heat balance model, a runoff formation model and a river‐routing network model. To understand the heat and water balances more precisely, the original model was modified as follows. First, the land surface was classified into five types (bare, grassland, forest, irrigation area and water surface) using a high‐resolution land‐use map. Potential evaporation was then calculated using land‐surface temperatures estimated by the heat balance model. The maximum evapotranspiration of each land surface was calculated from potential evaporation using functions of the leaf area index (LAI). Finally, actual evapotranspiration was estimated by regulating the maximum evapotranspiration using functions of soil moisture content. The river discharge estimated by the model agreed well with the observed data in most years. However, relatively large errors, which may have been caused by the overestimation of surface flow, appeared in some summer periods. The rapid decrease of river discharge in recent years in the source area of the Yellow River basin depended primarily on the decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin is influenced by land‐use changes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1960年以来气候变化与人类活动对鄱阳湖流域生态径流改变的影响

基于鄱阳湖流域五河水文站1960-2013年逐日径流量和14个国家级气象站的日气象数据,本文利用长短记忆模型框架构建神经网络模型来开展鄱阳湖流域的径流过程模拟,结合生态赤字与生态盈余等生态径流指标,定量分析了鄱阳湖流域的水文变异特征.同时,利用差异化的情景模拟方式,定量区分了人类活动和气候变化对鄱阳湖流域生态径流变化的...     

On the usefulness of remote sensing input data for spatially distributed hydrological modelling: case of the Tarim River basin in China

The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of transmission losses and groundwater recharge from runoff events in a wadi under shortage of data on lateral inflow,Negev, Israel

A hydrological–lithostratigraphical model was developed for assessment of transmission losses and groundwater recharge from runoff events in arid water courses where hydrological and meteorological records are incomplete. Water balance equations were established for reaches between hydrometric stations. Because rainfall and tributary flow data are scarce, lateral inflow, which is an essential component of the water balance equation, could not be estimated directly. The solution was obtained by developing a method which includes a hydrological–lithostratigraphical analogy. This is based on the following assumptions: (a) runoff resulting from a given rainfall event is related to the watershed surface lithology; (b) for a given event, the spatial distribution of runoff reflects the distribution of rainfall: and (c) transmission losses are uniquely related to the total inflow to the reach. The latter relationship, called the loss function, and the water balance equation comprise a model which simultaneously assesses lateral inflow and transmission losses for runoff events recorded at the terminal stations. The model was applied to three reaches of the arid Nahal Tsin in Israel. In this case study, the transmission losses were of the same order of magnitude as the flow at the major hydrometric stations. The losses were subdivided into channel moistening, which subsequently evaporates, and deep percolation, which recharges groundwater. For large runoff events, evaporation was substantially smaller than the losses. The mean annual recharge of groundwater from runoff events in the Tsin watershed was 4·1×10⁶ m³, while the mean annual flow volume at the major stations ranged from 0·6 to 1·5×10⁶ m³. Once in 100 years, the annual recharge may be seven times higher than the mean annual value, but the recharge during most years is very small. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes of flow regimes and precipitation in Huai River Basin in the last half century

Huai River Basin, as the sixth largest river basin in China, has a high‐regulated river system and has been facing severe water problems. In this article, the changing patterns of runoff and precipitation at 10 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2000 on the highly regulated river (Shaying River) and less‐regulated river (Huai River) in the basin are evaluated at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales using the Mann–Kendall test and simple linear regression model. The results showed that: (1) No statistically significant trends of precipitation in the upper and middle Huai River Basins were detected at the annual scale, but the trend of annual runoff at Baiguishan, Zhoukou and Fuyang stations in Shaying River decreased significantly, whereas the others were not. Moreover, the decreasing trends of runoff for most months were significant in Shaying River, although the trend of monthly precipitation decreased significantly only in April in the whole research area and the number of months in the dry season having significantly decreasing trends in runoff was more than that in the wet season. (2) The rainfall–runoff relationship was significant in both highly regulated river and less‐regulated river. In regulated river, the reservoirs have larger regulation capacity than the floodgates and thus have the smaller correlation coefficient and t‐value. In Huai River, the correlation coefficients decreased from upper stream to downstream. (3) The regulation of dams and floodgates for flood control and water supply was the principal reason for the decreasing runoff in Huai River Basin, although the decreasing precipitation in April in this basin was statistically significant. The findings are useful for recognizing hydrology variation and will provide scientific foundation to integrated water resources management in Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of landscape aggregation in modelling snow-cover ablation and snowmelt runoff in a sub-arctic mountainous environment

Abstract

Appropriate representation of landscape heterogeneity at small to medium scales is a central issue for hydrological modelling. Two main hydrological modelling approaches, deductive and inductive, are generally applied. Here, snow-cover ablation and basin snowmelt runoff are evaluated using a combined modelling approach that includes the incorporation of detailed process understanding along with information gained from observations of basin-wide streamflow phenomena. The study site is Granger Basin, a small sub-arctic basin in the mountains of the Yukon Territory, Canada. The analysis is based on the comparison between basin-aggregated and distributed landscape representations. Results show that the distributed model based on “hydrological response” landscape units best describes the observed magnitudes of both snow-cover ablation and basin runoff, whereas the aggregated approach fails to represent the differential snowmelt rates and to describe both runoff volumes and dynamics when discontinuous snowmelt events occur.     

Development of a thresholds approach for real‐time flash flood prediction in complex geomorphological river basins

Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land-use/cover change on hydrological processes using a GIS/RS-based integrated hydrological model: case study of the East River,China

Abstract

An integrated model, combining a surface energy balance system, an LAI-based interception model and a distributed monthly water balance model, was developed to predict hydrological impacts of land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) in the East River basin, China, with the aid of GIS/RS. The integrated model is a distributed model that not only accounts for spatial variations in basin terrain, rainfall and soil moisture, but also considers spatial and temporal variation of vegetation cover and evapotranspiration (ET), in particular, thus providing a powerful tool for investigating the hydrological impact of LUCC. The model was constructed using spatial data on topography, soil types and vegetation characteristics together with time series of precipitation from 170 stations in the basin. The model was calibrated and validated based on river discharge data from three stations in the basin for 21 years. The calibration and validation results suggested that the model is suitable for application in the basin. The results show that ET has a positive relationship with LAI (leaf area index), while runoff has a negative relationship with LAI in the same climatic zone that can be described by the surface energy balance and water balance equation. It was found that deforestation would cause an increase in annual runoff and a decrease in annual ET in southern China. Monthly runoff for different land-cover types was found to be inversely related to ET. Also, for most of the scenarios, and particularly for grassland and cropland, the most significant changes occurred in the rainy season, indicating that deforestation would cause a significant increase in monthly runoff in that season in the East River basin. These results are important for water resources management and environmental change monitoring.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Tritium balance in macro‐scale river basins analysed through distributed hydrological modelling

The recession of bomb tritium in river discharge of large basins indicates a contribution of slowly moving water. For an appropriate interpretation it is necessary to consider different runoff components (e.g. direct runoff and ground water components) and varying residence times of tritium in these components. The spatially distributed catchment model (tracer aided catchment model, distributed; TAC^D) and a tritium balance model (TRIBIL) were combined to model process‐based tritium balances in a large German river basin (Weser 46 240 km²) and seven embedded sub‐basins. The hydrological model (monthly time step, 2 × 2 km²) estimated the three major runoff components: direct runoff, fast‐moving and slow‐moving ground water for the period of 1950 to 1999. The model incorporated topography, land use, geomorphology, geology and hydro‐meteorological data. The results for the different basins indicated a contribution of direct runoff of 30–50% and varying amounts for fast and slow ground water components. Combining these results with the TRIBIL model allowed us to estimate the residence time of the components. Mean residence times of 8 to 14 years were found for the fast ground water component, 21 to 93 years for the slow ground water component and 14 to 50 years for an overall mean residence time within these basins. Balance calculations for the Weser basin indicate an over‐estimation of loss of tritium through evapotranspiration (more than 60%) and decay (10%). About 28% were carried in stream‐flow where direct runoff contributed about 12% and ground water runoff 13% in relation to precipitation input over the studied 50‐year period. Neighbouring basins and nuclear power plants contributed about 1% each over this time period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scaling properties of the runoff variations in the arid and semi-arid regions of China: a case study of the Yellow River basin

We analyzed long daily runoff series at six hydrological stations located along the mainstem Yellow River basin by using power spectra analysis and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) technique with aim to deeply understand the scaling properties of the hydrological series in the Yellow River basin. Research results indicate that: (1) the runoff fluctuations of the Yellow River basin exhibit self-affine fractal behavior and different memory properties at different time scales. Different crossover frequency (1/f) indicates that lower crossover frequency usually corresponds to larger basin area, and vice versa, showing the influences of river size on higher frequency of runoff variations. This may be due to considerable regulations of river channel on the runoff variations in river basin of larger basin size; (2) the runoff fluctuations in the Yellow River basin exhibit short-term memory properties at smaller time scales. Crossover analysis by MF-DFA indicates unchanged annual cycle within the runoff variations, implying dominant influences of climatic changes on changes of runoff amount at longer time scales, e.g. 1 year. Human activities, such as human withdrawal of freshwater and construction of water reservoirs, in different reaches of the Yellow River basin may be responsible for different scaling properties of runoff variations in the Yellow River basin. The results of this study will be helpful for hydrological modeling in different time scales and also for water resource management in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.     

Vertical zonality of the water cycle and the impact of land-use change on runoff in the Qingshui River Basin of Wutai Mountain,China

ABSTRACT

Hydrological processes in hilly watersheds are significantly affected by variations in elevation; however, the hydrological functions of different vertical vegetation belts, have rarely been reported. The distributed hydrological model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) was applied to analyse vertical variations in the hydrological processes of Qingshui River basin (QRB), Wutai Mountain (altitude: 3058 m a.s.l.), China. The results show that the highest ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation occurs at 1800 m a.s.l. Below 1800 m, evapotranspiration is mainly controlled by precipitation, and in regions above1800 m it is controlled by energy. The runoff coefficients for different vertical vegetation belts may be ranked as follows: farmland > grassland > subalpine meadow > evergreen coniferous shrub forest > deciduous broad-leaved forest. Grassland is the largest runoff production area, contributing approximately 39.10% to the annual water yield of the QRB. The runoff from forested land decreased to a greater extent than the grassland runoff. Increasing forest cover may increase evapotranspiration and reduce runoff. These results are important, not only for further understanding of the hydrological mechanisms in this basin, but also for implementing the sustainable management of water resources and ecosystems in other mountainous regions.     

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga–Bhadra river basin,India with HEC‐HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域气候变化趋势及突变分析

本文利用1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域14个气象站的气温、降水量、蒸发量等观测数据和8个主要水文站的流量数据,研究该时段内鄱阳湖流域的气候变化趋势、突变及其空间分布的差异．研究表明,鄱阳潮流域气温和降水均在1990年发生突变,继而呈现显著的上升趋势;在季节变化上,冬季平均气温在1986年发生突变,增温显著;夏季降水量和夏季暴雨频率均在1992年发生突变增加,暴雨频率增加是夏季降水量增加的主要原因;蒸发皿蒸发量和参照蒸散量均呈现显著下降趋势,该变化在夏季尤为明显．上述变化趋势均以1990s最为显著,这与长江流域气候变化趋势基本一致．在空间分布上,饶河水系、信江水系和赣江下游等气候变化更为显著．笔者认为,鄱阳湖流域气候变化在长江流域中比较突出．该流域1990s暖湿气候在加强;气温的升高、降水量和暴雨频率的增加以及蒸发量的下降强化了五河流量的增加趋势,由此可大致判定鄱阳湖流域气候变化与洪涝灾害之间可能存在的关系,这可为理解气候变化在该流域的响应和预测该流域未来可能的洪涝灾害提供依据．     

The hydrological significance of mountains: a regional case study,the Ebro River basin,northeast Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

This study evaluated the hydrological significance of mountain regions, comparing them with the lowlands of the Ebro River basin (northeast Iberian Peninsula). It was based on records obtained from measuring stations. An altitude of 1000 m above mean sea level was adopted as the criterion for distinguishing between lowland and mountain areas. We analysed 12 sub-basins whose rivers flow directly into the River Ebro, and which covered 66% of the total surface area, 91% of the mountain area and accounted for 77% of total annual runoff. For the River Ebro basin, we found that the mean precipitation depth, the runoff volume per unit of surface area, and the runoff coefficient were all greater in the mountains than in the adjacent lowlands, with respective differences of 70%, 180% and 60%. These results and the particular fragility of the Mediterranean mountain ecosystems confirm the mountain regions of the Ebro basin as strategic zones for hydrological and territorial planning.

Citation López, R. & Justribó, C. (2010) The hydrological significance of mountains: a regional case study, the Ebro River basin, northeast Iberian Peninsula. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 223–233.     

Impacts of climate change and land use change on runoff of forest catchment in northeast China

Hydrological processes change from the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Runoff in the upper reaches of the Hun‐Taizi River basin, which is mainly covered by forests in northeast China, decreased from 1960 to 2006. The data used in this study were based on runoff records from six hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Hun‐Taizi River basin. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistic was used to identify change trends and abrupt change points and consequently analyze the change characteristics in hydrological processes. The abrupt change in the annual runoff in most subcatchments appeared after 1975. Finally, the effects of climate change and land cover change on water resources were identified using regression analysis and a hydrology model. Results of the regression analysis suggest that the correlation coefficients between precipitation and runoff prior to the abrupt change were higher compared with those after the abrupt change. Moreover, using hydrology model analysis, the water yield was found to increase because of the decrease in forest land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin

ABSTRACT

Climate change alters hydrological processes and results in more extreme hydrological events, e.g. flooding and drought, which threaten human livelihoods. In this study, the large-scale distributed variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to simulate future hydrological processes in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YZRB), China, with a combination of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, fifth phase) and MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, fifth version) datasets. The results indicate that the performance of the VIC model is suitable for the case study, and the variation in runoff is remarkably consistent with that of precipitation, which exhibits a decreasing trend for the period 2046–2060 and an increasing trend for 2086–2100. The seasonality of runoff is evident, and substantial increases are projected for spring runoff, which might result from the increase in precipitation as well as the increase in the warming-induced melting of snow, glaciers and frozen soil. Moreover, evapotranspiration exhibits an increase between 2006–2020 and 2046–2060 over the entire basin, and soil moisture decreases in upstream areas and increases in midstream and downstream areas. For 2086–2100, both evapotranspiration and soil moisture increase slightly in the upstream and midstream areas and decrease slightly in the downstream area. The findings of this study could provide references for runoff forecasting and ecological protection for similar studies in the future.