Channel processes following land use changes in a degrading steep headwater stream in North Island, New Zealand

In headwater streams in steep land settings, narrow and steep valley floors provide closely coupled relationships between geomorphic components including hillslopes, tributary fans, and channel reaches. These relationships together with small catchment sizes result in episodic changes to the amount of stored sediment in channels. Major sediment inputs follow high magnitude events. Subsequent exponential losses via removal of material can be represented by a relaxation curve. The influence of hillslope and tributary processes on relaxation curves, and that of altered coupling relations between components, were investigated along a 1.3 km reach of a degrading channel in the 4.8 km² Weraamaia Catchment, New Zealand. Extensive deforestation in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, followed by invasion of scrubs and reforestation, induced changes to major erosion types from gully complexes to shallow landslides. Changes in the size and pattern of sediment slugs from 1938 to 2002 were analysed from air photographs tied to detailed field measurement. The rate and calibre of sediment flux changed progressively following substantive hillslope input in a storm in 1938. Subsequently, the channel narrowed and incised, decoupling tributary fans from the main stem, thereby scaling down the size of sediment slugs. As a consequence, the dominant influence on the behaviour of sediment slugs and associated relaxation processes, changed from tributary fans to the type and distribution of bedrock outcrops along the reach.     

Last glacial aggradation and postglacial sediment production from the non-glacial Waipaoa and Waimata catchments, Hikurangi Margin, North Island, New Zealand

The sediment flux generated by postglacial channel incision has been calculated for the 2150 km², non-glacial, Waipaoa catchment located on the tectonically active Hikurangi Margin, eastern North Island, New Zealand. Sediment production both at a sub-catchment scale and for the Waipaoa catchment as a whole was calculated by first using the tensioned spline method within ARC MAP to create an approximation of the aggradational Waipaoa-1 surface (contemporaneous with the Last Glacial Maximum), and second using grid calculator functions in the GIS to subtract the modern day surface from the Waipaoa-1 surface. The Waipaoa-1 surface was mapped using stereo aerial photography, and global positioning technology fixed the position of individual terrace remnants in the landscape. The recent discovery of Kawakawa Tephra within Waipaoa-1 aggradation gravels in this catchment demonstrates that aggradation was coincidental with or began before the deposition of this 22 600 ¹⁴C-year-old tephra and, using the stratigraphic relationship of Rerewhakaaitu Tephra, the end of aggradation is dated at ca 15 000 ¹⁴C years (ca 18 000 cal. years BP). The construction of the Waipaoa-1 terrace is considered to be synchronous and broadly correlated with aggradation elsewhere in the North Island and northern South Island, indicating that aggradation ended at the same time over a wide area. Subsequent downcutting, a manifestation of base-level lowering following a switch to postglacial incision at the end of glacial-age aggradation, points to a significant Southern Hemisphere climatic warming occurring soon after ca 15 000 ¹⁴C years (ca 18 000 cal. years BP) during the Older Dryas interval. Elevation differences between the Waipaoa-1 (c.15 ka) terrace and the level of maximum channel incision (i.e. before aggradation since the turn of the 20th century) suggest about 50% of the topographic relief within headwater reaches of the Waipaoa catchment has been formed in postglacial times. The postglacial sediment flux generated by channel incision from Waipaoa catchment is of the order of 9.5 km³, of which ~ 6.6 km³ is stored within the confines of the Poverty Bay floodplain. Thus, although the postglacial period represented a time of high terrigenous sediment generation and delivery, only ~ 30% of the sediment generated by channel incision from Waipaoa catchment probably reached the marine shelf and slope of the Hikurangi Margin during this time. The smaller adjacent Waimata catchment probably contributed an additional 2.6 km³ to the same depocentre to give a total postglacial sediment contribution to the shelf and beyond of ~ 5.5 km³. Sediment generated by postglacial channel incision represents only ~ 25% of the total sediment yield from this landscape with ~ 75% of the estimated volume of the postglacial storage offshore probably derived from hillslope erosion processes following base-level fall at times when sediment yield from these catchments exceeded storage.     

The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico

Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 people/km², and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing stress on the natural environment and physical infrastructure. As a result, human populations are more vulnerable to landslide hazards. The Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo study areas range in surface area from 276 to 350 km² and represent the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that typify Puerto Rico. Maps of recent landslides developed from 1:20,000-scale aerial photographs, in combination with a computerized geographic information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of shallow landslides in these areas. Several types of landslides were documented—rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12° in gradient, are greater than 300 m in elevation, and face the east-northeast, are most prone to landsliding. A set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three study areas was developed and provides a basis for the estimation of the spatial controls on the frequency of landslides in Puerto Rico. This approach is an example of an analysis of the frequency of landslides that is computationally simple, and therefore, may be easily transferable to other settings.     

Spatial patterns of old, deep-seated landslides: A case-study in the northern Ethiopian highlands

During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km² study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.     

Time series assessment on landslide occurrences in an area undergoing development

This study assesses the influence of development on landslide occurrences in a rapidly developing area, Kota Kinabalu in Sabah Malaysia, across three assessment years (1978, 1994 and 2010). Two development indicators, land use and road density, were used to measure the influence of development on landslide occurrence. Land use was classified into four categories (barren, forest, developed and other), and road density was classified into low (< 50 m/40 000 m²), moderate (50–150 m/40 000 m²) and high (> 150 m/40 000 m²). Landslide density analysis was used to calculate the concentration of landslide for the different land use and road density categories. The number of landslides in developed areas increased from 19 landslides/100 km² in 1978, to 29 landslides/100 km² in 1994 and to 50 landslides/100 km² in 2010, mirroring an increase in land use for development purposes from 8 per cent in 1978 to 27 per cent in 2010. Landslide density also gradually increased in the high road density class from 10 landslides/100 km² in 1978, to 30 landslides/100 km² in 1994 and 62 landslides/100 km² in 2010. These results show that road construction activities influence landslide occurrences.     

Validation of a region-wide model of landslide susceptibility in the Manawatu–Wanganui region of New Zealand

Since European settlement 160 years ago, much of the indigenous forest in New Zealand hill country has been cleared for pastoral agriculture, resulting in increased erosion and sedimentation. To prioritise soil conservation work in the Manawatu–Wanganui region, we developed a model of landslide susceptibility. It assigns high susceptibility to steep land not protected by woody vegetation and low susceptibility everywhere else, following the commonly used approach for identifying inappropriate land use. A major storm on 15–16 February 2004 that produced many landslides was used to validate the model. The model predicted hills at risk to landsliding with moderate accuracy: 58% of erosion scars in the February storm occurred on hillsides considered to be susceptible. The model concept of slope thresholds, above which the probability of landsliding is high and below which the probability is low, is not adequate because below 30° the probability of landsliding is approximately linearly related to slope. Thus, reforestation of steep slopes will need to be combined with improved vegetation management for soil conservation on moderate slopes to significantly reduce future landsliding.     

Changes in land cover and shallow landslide activity: A case study in the Spanish Pyrenees

The Pyrenees, like many other mountain areas in Europe, have experienced depopulation and land abandonment during the 20th century. This has encouraged vegetation recovery in formerly occupied areas, including reforestation to promote woodland. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of these changes on shallow landsliding, a process responsible for erosion and land degradation in many mountain areas. A sequence of aerial images reveals a slight decrease in the landslide occurrence rate in the last half of the 20th century and a parallel increase in the landslide extinction rate, i.e. the rate at which evidence of landslide activity is removed by vegetation colonisation. A logistic regression routine was used to assess the influence of land use and vegetation recovery in the occurrence of shallow landslides. The result shows that the former arable fields on the valley slopes still facilitate landsliding, even after land abandonment and revegetation by shrubs or trees. A shift in the topographic location of landslides was also detected, pointing to an increased importance of water redistribution in the slopes after prolonged rainfall periods.     

Landsliding and sediment flux in the Central Swiss Alps: A photogrammetric study of the Schimbrig landslide, Entlebuch

This study explores the effects of hillslope mass failure on the sediment flux in the Waldemme drainage basin, Central Swiss Alps, over decadal time scales. This area is characterized by abundant landslides affecting principally flysch units and is therefore an important sediment source. The analysis concentrates on the Schimbrig landslide that potentially contributes up to 15% to the sediment budget of the Waldemme drainage basin. Volumetric changes are quantified using high-resolution elevation models that were extracted using digital photogrammetric techniques. Sediment discharge data were used to constrain the significance of the landslide for sediment flux in the channel network. The temporal extent of the photogrammetric analysis ranges from 1962 to 1998, including an earth slide event in 1994. The analyses reveal that during periods of low slip rates of the landslide, nearly all of the displaced sediments were eroded and supplied to the channel network. In contrast, during active periods, only a fraction of the displaced landslide mass was exported to the trunk stream. Interestingly, the 1994 earth slide event did not disturb the long-term sediment discharge pattern of the channel network, nor did it influence the sediment flux at a weekly scale. However, suspended sediment pulses correlate with higher-than-average precipitation events. This was especially the case in August 2005 when a storm event (> 100 years return period) triggered several debris flows and earth flows in the whole drainage basin and in the Schimbrig area. This storm did not result in a significant increase in the slip rates of the entire landslide's main body. It is therefore proposed that debris flows and earth flows perform the connectivity between hillslope processes (e.g. landsliding) and the trunk stream during and between phases of landslide activity in this particular setting.     

Sedimentary impacts from landslides in the Tachia River Basin, Taiwan

A case study of coseismic landslides and post-seismic sedimentary impacts of landslides due to rainfall events was conducted in the Tachia River basin, Taichung County, central Taiwan. About 3000 coseismic landslides occurred in the basin during the M_L 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999. The deposits from these landslides provided material for numerous debris flows induced by subsequent rainfall events. The estimated 4.1 × 10⁷ m³ of landslide debris produced in the upland area caused sediment deposition in riverbeds, and flash floods inundated downstream areas with sediment during torrential rains. The landslide frequency-size distributions for the coseismic landslides and the subsequent rainfall-induced landslides were analyzed to determine the sediment budgets of the post-seismic geomorphic response in the landslide-dominated basin. Both the coseismic and the rainfall-induced landslides show a power–law frequency-size distribution with a rollover. It was found that the rainfall-induced landslide magnitude was smaller than the coseismic one, and that both have comparable negative scaling exponents in cumulative form, of about − 2.0 for larger landslides (> 10^− 2 km²). This may be attributed to ongoing movement or reactivation of old landslides, and a natural stabilisation of small landslides between 10^− 4 and 10^− 2 km². It is proposed that the characteristics of geological formations and rainfall as well as changes in landslide area are reflected in the power–law distribution.     

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m³/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is −1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL_I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL_I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.     

Analysing the influence of upslope bedrock outcrops on shallow landsliding

A model for the prediction of topographic and climatic control on shallow landsliding in mountainous terrain is enhanced to analyse the impact of upslope rocky outcrops on downslope shallow landsliding. The model uses a ‘generalised quasi-dynamic wetness index’ to describe runoff propagation on bare rock surfaces connected to downslope soil-mantled topographic elements. This approach yields a simple enhanced model capable of describing the influence of upslope bedrock outcrops on the pattern of downslope soil saturation. The model is applied in both diagnostic and predictive modes to a small catchment in the eastern Italian Alps for which a detailed inventory of shallow landslides in areas dominated by rocky outcrops is available. In the diagnostic mode, the model is used with satisfactory results to reproduce the pattern of instability generated by an intense short-duration storm occurred on 14 September 1994, which triggered a large percentage of the surveyed landslides. In the predictive mode, the model is used for hazard assessment, and the return time of the critical rainfall needed to cause instability for each topographic element is determined. Modelling results obtained in the predictive mode are evaluated against all the surveyed landslides. It is revealed that the generalised quasi-dynamic model offers considerable improvement over the non-generalised quasi-dynamic model and the steady-state model in predicting existing landslides as represented in the considered landslide inventory.     

The effects of logging on frequency and distribution of landslides in three watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia

Three hundred and sixty three landslides in three watersheds that totaled 382 km² were identified from air photographs, beginning at a date that preceded logging to the present. The three watersheds all lie on Vancouver Island; however, they have different precipitation regimes, topography, and amounts logged. Landslide areas in the watersheds varied in size from 200 m² to more than 1 ha. Nearly 80% of the landslides were debris slides; 15% were debris flows, and the remainder primarily rock falls. Following logging, the number of landslides increased substantially in all watersheds although the amount of increase was variable: approximately 11, 3, and 16 times in Macktush Creek, Artlish River, and Nahwitti River, respectively. Other analyses of changes in landslide density also produced highly variable results, with the number of landslides increasing between 2.4 and 24 times. Further, 2–12 times more landslides reached streams following logging activities. Densities for landslides impacting streams increased for the period of record from 1.5 to 10 times following logging activities. The densities were substantially greater where only landslides that reached streams since development began in a watershed were considered. Roads had the greatest spatial impact in the watersheds (compared to their total area), with frequencies determined to have increased by 27, 12, and 94 times for Macktush, Artlish, and Nahwitti, respectively. The results highlight the relative impact of roads and their role in slope stability.     

An assessment of land use and other factors affecting sediment loads in the Rio Puerco watershed, New Mexico

Rapid channel erosion in the Rio Puerco watershed of northwest New Mexico has been attributed to land use, climate changes, and internal channel adjustments. The objectives of this study were to assess (1) the impacts of land uses on sediment load, (2) the quantitative relationships between land use and sediment load, and (3) the effectiveness of different erosion control methods. The impacts of land uses on sediment load were assessed via hypotheses that, holding other erosion-related variables constant, sediment load correlates positively with grazing intensity and with density of unpaved roads, and correlates negatively with the number of erosion control treatments. We calculated the average annual sediment load for 17 subbasins of 0.67–17.97 km² by comparing sediment accumulation at two points in time (mid-1960s and 1999) behind intact sediment retention structures. We assessed land use via grazing records and measurements of unpaved roads generated from aerial photographs. Soil characteristics, vegetation, and physical factors were quantified for each subbasin. Using 18 variables for each subbasin, we employed Mallow's C_p as a selection criterion. We used six statistical models, including multiple regression and principal components analysis, to determine inherent mathematical relationships between significant independent variables and sediment load. The results indicate that sediment load does not correlate with grazing intensity except in small, relatively low-relief basins with fewer bedrock exposures. However, this interpretation may be compromised by the low quality of data available to quantify grazing. Sediment load is highly sensitive to the presence of unpaved roads, which serve as high gradient, channelized conduits of water and sediment during storms. Sediment load does not correlate with erosion control except in the subset of small, relatively low-relief subbasins that also proved sensitive to grazing intensity. Overall, the statistical analyses suggest that the impact of land uses on sediment load can be assessed using the data available although physical factors appear more significant than land use in producing high sediment loads in the Rio Puerco subbasins. Historical erosion control techniques, as implemented in the Rio Puerco watershed, prove largely ineffective against accelerated sediment loads because they have not been appropriately implemented or maintained.     

CHANNEL CHANGES IN ARID BADLANDS,BORREGO SPRINGS,CALIFORNIA

Geometric, hydraulic, and sediment characteristics in arid badlands near Borrego Springs, California, are examined in relation to precipitation events of varying magnitude and frequency. The longitudinal and cross profiles of five ephemeral channels occupying a 2.5 km² catchment were surveyed under pre-and post-storm conditions during the February 1976-December 1978 period. Such arid region channels offer the opportunity to observe and explain rates and methods of profile change under different flow types in a short period of time. Catchment responses to light winter events include substantial lags between initial precipitation and channel runoff, the limited downstream movement of small slugs of sediment, high losses of discharge into channel alluvium, and prolonged mass movement of debris from adjacent hillslopes into the channels following the storm events thus promoting aggradation along certain channel reaches. Responses to intense summer storms include explosive channel and hillslope runoff and localized scour and fill, both during and following such events, thereby promoting substantial aggradation and erosion along portions of the channels. Although ephemeral flow conditions may produce channel profiles which are distinct from those in perennial streams, the evaluation of the methods of sediment transport and the storage of debris in arid catchments offer useful explanation for other environments.     

February floods in the lower North Island, 2004: Catastrophe – causes and consequences

Abstract: The February 2004 Manawatu floods in New Zealand were the result of a naturally occurring, although unusual, storm. Up to 300 mm of rain fell on the already saturated ground of the lower North Island over two days, generating substantial and rapid runoff from catchment slopes. Rivers rose quickly, inundating unprotected farmland and properties and in places breaching stopbanks. There was widespread slope failure in the hill country of the lower North Island, affecting an area of ca. 7500 km². Slopes under scrub, plantation forest and native bush were not as badly affected as those under pasture, where slopes typically failed by shallow translational landsliding. Flooding caused catastrophic channel change in a number of small to medium sized channel systems in the upland fringes. Whilst the occurrence of landsliding and channel changes during an extreme event such as this is natural, the intensity of both landsliding and channel erosion was exacerbated by human activity within the catchments.     

Landslide inventory in a rugged forested watershed: a comparison between air-photo and field survey data

Landslide inventories are routinely compiled by means of aerial photo interpretation (API). When examining photo pairs, the forest canopy (notably in old-growth forest) hides a population of “not visible” landslides. In the present study, we attempt to estimate how important is the contribution of landslides not detectable from aerial photographs to the global mass of sediment production from mass failures on forested terrain of the Capilano basin, coastal British Columbia. API was coupled with intensive fieldwork for identification and measurement of all landslides. A 30-year framework was adopted. We show that “not visible” landslides can represent up to 85% of the total number of failures and account for 30% of the volume of debris mobilised. Such percentages display high sub-basin variability with rates of sediment production varying by one order of magnitude between two sub-basins of the study area. This is explained qualitatively by GIS-based analysis of slope frequency distributions, drainage density, and spatial distribution of surficial materials. Such observations find further support in the definitions of transport-limited and supply-limited basins. As a practical consideration to land managers, we envisage that supplementary fieldwork for landslide identification is mandatory in transport-limited systems only. Fieldwork has demonstrated that gully-related failures have a greater importance than one could expect from API.     

Predictive landslide susceptibility assessment using the weight-of-evidence method in north-central Garhwal Himalaya,India

Landslides are frequent natural disasters in mountainous regions, particularly in the Himalayas in India during the southwest monsoon season. Although scientific study of landslides has been in progress for years, no significant achievement has been made to preclude landsliding and allay disasters. This research was undertaken to understand the areal distribution of landslides based on geological formations and geomorphological processes, and to provide more precise information regarding slope instability and mechanisms of failure. After completing a landslide inventory, prepared through field investigation and satellite image analysis, 493 landslides, comprising 131 investigated in the field and 362 identified from satellite imagery, were identified and mapped. The areal distribution of these landslides shows that sites more prone to landsliding have moderate to steep slopes, the lithology of the Lesser Himalayan formations, and excavations for road corridors. Landslide susceptibility zones were delineated for the area using the weight-of-evidence method on the basis of the frequency and distribution of landslides. Weights of selected variables were computed on the basis of severity of triggering factors. The accuracy of landslide susceptibility zones, calculated statistically (R² = .93), suggests high accuracy of the model for predicting landsliding in the area.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region

The M_w 7.6 October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake triggered several thousand landslides throughout the Himalaya of northern Pakistan and India. These were concentrated in six different geomorphic–geologic–anthropogenic settings. A spatial database, which included 2252 landslides, was developed and analyzed using ASTER satellite imagery and geographical information system (GIS) technology. A multi-criterion evaluation was applied to determine the significance of event-controlling parameters in triggering the landslides. The parameters included lithology, faults, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, land cover, rivers and roads. The results showed four classes of landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, they indicated that lithology had the strongest influence on landsliding, particularly when the rock is highly fractured, such as in shale, slate, clastic sediments, and limestone and dolomite. Moreover, the proximity of the landslides to faults, rivers, and roads was also an important factor in helping to initiate failures. In addition, landslides occurred particularly in moderate elevations on south facing slopes. Shrub land, grassland, and also agricultural land were highly susceptible to failures, while forested slopes had few landslides. One-third of the study area was highly or very highly susceptible to future landsliding and requires immediate mitigation action. The rest of the region had a low or moderate susceptibility to landsliding and remains relatively stable. This study supports the view that (1) earthquake-triggered landslides are concentrated in specific zones associated with event-controlling parameters; and (2) in the western Himalaya deforestation and road construction contributed significantly to landsliding during and shortly after earthquakes.     

LiDAR-derived DEM evaluation of deep-seated landslides in a steep and rocky region of Japan

In steep and rocky terrains, their rough surfaces make it difficult to create landslide inventories even with detailed maps/images produced from airborne LiDAR data. To provide objective clues in locating deep-seated landslides, the surface textures of a 5 km² steepland area in Japan was investigated using the eigenvalue ratio and slope filters calculated from a very high resolution LiDAR-derived DEM. The range of filter values was determined for each of a number of surface features mapped in the field and these included: cracked bedrock outcrops, coarse colluvial deposits, gently undulating surfaces, and smooth surfaces. Recently active slides commonly contained patches of ground in which deposition and erosion occurred together near the erosion front, or where cracked bedrock outcrops and coarse colluvial deposits coexisted under a gently undulating surface. The characteristic eigenvalue and slope filter values representing this sliding process were applied to maps of the DEM derived filter values to extract potential sites of recent landslide activity. In addition, the relationships between the filter values of deep-seated landslides at various stages of evolution within the field mapped area were extended to the entire study area, to assess the contribution that landslide evolution makes to change in the landscape as a whole. While landslide components made up the steepest as well as the gentlest parts of the landscape depending on their evolutionary stage, landslides were constantly coarsened and steepened by progressive erosion, probably initiated by river bank erosion at the foot of slopes.     

Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km²) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m²) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.