Activities of Parent Comets and Related Meteor Showers

The activity of a meteor shower is thought to be proportional to the activities through time of the parent comet. Recent applications of the dust trail theory provide us not only with a new method to forecast the occurrences and intensities of shower activities, but it is also offers a new approach to explore the history of past activities of the parent comet by retro-tracking its associated meteor showers. We introduce the result of an effort for relating meteor shower activities to the parent comet activities for which we chose the October Draconids and comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner in this paper.     

流星暴的航天定义

定义ZHR^*以每小时穿过1000平方公里天顶截面的，能在铝质表面打出直径不小于1厘米的弹坑的流星体数，作为流星群对航天安全威胁强度的定量标志，给出了从ZHR到ZHR^*的换算公式．用ZHR^*取代ZHR来评价20世纪90年代以来的一些强流星雨，发现1998年的贾可比尼(天龙座)流星雨对航天安全来说，是比公认的1999、2001、2002年3次狮子座流星暴强数倍的更强流星暴．     

The dust trail of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

We report the detection of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's dust trail and nucleus in 24 μm Spitzer Space Telescope images taken February 2004. The dust trail is not found in optical Palomar images taken June 2003. Both the optical and infrared images show a distinct neck-line tail structure, offset from the projected orbit of the comet. We compare our observations to simulated images using a Monte Carlo approach and a dynamical model for comet dust. We estimate the trail to be at least one orbit old (6.6 years) and consist of particles of size ?100 μm. The neck-line is composed of similar sized particles, but younger in age. Together, our observations and simulations suggest grains 100 μm and larger in size dominate the total mass ejected from the comet. The radiometric effective radius of the nucleus is 1.87±0.08 km, derived from the Spitzer observation. The Rosetta spacecraft is expected to arrive at and orbit this comet in 2014. Assuming the trail is comprised solely of 1 mm radius grains, we compute a low probability (∼¹⁰⁻³) of a trail grain impacting with Rosetta during approach and orbit insertion.     

Real-Time Flux Density Measurements of the 2011 Draconid Meteor Outburst

During the 2011 outburst of the Draconid meteor shower, members of the Video Meteor Network of the International Meteor Organization provided, for the first time, fully automated flux density measurements in the optical domain. The data set revealed a primary maximum at 20:09 UT ± 5 min on 8 October 2011 (195.036° solar longitude) with an equivalent meteoroid flux density of (118 ± 10) × 10^?3/km²/h at a meteor limiting magnitude of +6.5, which is thought to be caused by the 1900 dust trail. We also find that the outburst had a full width at half maximum of 80 min, a mean radiant position of α = 262.2°, δ = +56.2° (±1.3°) and geocentric velocity of v_geo = 17.4 km/s (±0.5 km/s). Finally, our data set appears to be consistent with a small sub-maximum at 19:34 UT ±7 min (195.036° solar longitude) which has earlier been reported by radio observations and may be attributed to the 1907 dust trail. We plan to implement automated real-time flux density measurements for all known meteor showers on a regular basis soon.     

Spectral,Photometric, and Dynamic Analysis of Eight Draconid Meteors

A Draconid meteor shower outburst was observed from on board two scientific aircraft deployed above Northern Europe on 8th October 2011. The activity profile was measured using a set of photographic and video cameras. The main peak of the activity occurred around 20:15 ± 0:0.5 UT which is consistent with the model prediction as well as with the IMO network visual observations. The corrected hourly rates reached a value of almost 350. The brighter meteors peaked about 15–20 min earlier than the dimmer ones. This difference can be explained by different directions of the ejection of the meteoroids from the parent comet. One of the instruments was even able to detect meteors connected with the material ejected from the parent comet before 1900 and thus confirmed the prediction of the model, although it was based on uncertain pre-1900 cometary data. Another small peak of the activity, which was caused by material ejected during the 1926 perihelion passage of the parent comet, was detected around 21:10 UT. The mass distribution index determined using the narrow field-of-view video camera was 2.0 ± 0.1. This work shows that the observation of meteor outbursts can constrain the orbital elements, outgassing activity and existence of jets at the surface of a comet.     

Analysis of a Low Density Meteoroid with Enhanced Sodium

We present an analysis of sporadic meteor number 07406018, observed by image intensified video cameras at two stations, which showed a pronounced deceleration along its trajectory. We have applied the erosion model to analyze simultaneously the deceleration and light curve. We have found that the meteoroid had a low density of about 500 kg m⁻³, consistent with its cometary orbit. The meteoroid structure was, nevertheless, markedly different from the Draconid meteoroids, studied recently with the same model. The size of the constituent grains was larger and the erosion energy was higher than in Draconids. The meteor spectrum was also different from Draconid spectra and showed very bright Na lines. The meteoroid composition was probably different from normal cometary composition.     

Comparison of the structures of meteor streams of cometary and possible asteroidal origin

The structures of the meteor streams of cometary origin—Draconids, Ursids, Perseids, and Lyrids—and the streams presumably connected with asteroids—Taurids and α-Capricornids—are compared. The comparative analysis was performed by the mass distribution of meteoroids in the stream and the activity profile for the meteors with the maximum recorded stellar magnitude +3 ^m and brighter. Visual observations of 1987–2008 from the database of the International Meteor Organization (IMO) and earlier sources were considered. It has been shown that the structures of the meteor streams of cometary and, presumably, asteroidal origin differ somewhat by the activity profile and the mass distribution of meteoroids in the cross-section of a stream along the Earth’s orbit.     

Variation of Leonid maximum times with location of observer

Abstract— A time adjustment from the Earth's centre to the observer's location is quantified and shown to improve the residuals between the observed time of pronounced Leonid showers and the time calculated from perturbed dust trails. A correlation with the exact time of closest approach to the nominal dust trail orbit would allow a further improvement in the residuals. However, there is no evidence for such a correlation, which suggests that the dust trail cross section is substantially elongated within the orbital plane. These results indicate that approaches to dust trails within 0.0005 AU are predictable with an uncertainty of ～5 min. Application of this correction to satellites confirms the utility of two strategies to minimise the impact risk. The time adjustment could be applied to any meteor stream.     

Analyzing Radar Meteor Trail Echoes using the Fresnel Transform Technique: A Signal Processing Viewpoint

Several techniques have been proposed for measuring speeds of meteoroids observed using radars. A recent technique involves the use of Fresnel transforms to accurately determine the speed of a meteoroid producing the trail. We follow a numerical modeling approach to analyze this technique in detail. Our studies indicate that high sensitivity to background noise levels might be a possible shortcoming of the Fresnel transform method. A matched filtering approach is presented as an alternative to alleviate this sensitivity to the noise problem. Performance of the two techniques is compared using numerical modeling and data from a 30 MHz radar.     

Determination of secular polar motion from astronomical observations: Priority of Aleksandr Orlov

The aim of this article is to draw attention to the priority of the well-known astronomer and geophysicist, member of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine A.Ya. Orlov (1880–1954) in the determination of the following parameters describing the secular motion of the earth’s poles: speed (4 mas/year) and direction (69° west). These results (1954) are based on the astronomical observations from 1900 to 1950 with zenith telescopes at international latitude stations. Orlov is well known in the world astronomical community as the founder of the Poltava Gravimetric Observatory, the Main Astronomical Observatory, and the national research school of global geodynamics. However, his pioneering work on secular polar motion is little known worldwide. At present, Orlov’s estimates for secular polar motion have been verified by century-long observations (1900–2012) obtained with different telescopes at many observatories worldwide and by different, both astronomical and space-based, methods (LLS, VLBI, GNSS, etc.).     

The orbit of the Kappa Cygnid and related meteor streams

A study of the Kappa Cygnid and other minor streams of the August epoch is presented based on a computer search in a sample of 3518 photographic meteoroid orbits. Four different meteoroid streams with radiants in Cygnus, Draco and Lyra, were found. Three of these: the Kappa Cygnids, the Alpha Lyrids and the Zeta Draconids are identified with meteor showers reported by nineteenth century visual observers. The fourth stream, the August Lyrids, consists of six meteors with radiants in Lyra centered on = 277°.6, = 46°.2. No previous visual reports of this stream have been found. It is interesting to note that all four meteoroid streams are coincident in time; their orbits are all of short period and they all have very nearly the same orientation of semi-major axis.     

Dust production of comet 21P/Giacobini‐Zinner using broadband photometry

Presented here are results from photometric analysis on broadband images taken of comet 21P/Giacobini‐Zinner from May 24, 2011 to October 24, 2011. As the parent body of the Draconids, a meteor shower known for outbursting, 21P was studied for its dust production activity, Afρ, focusing on how it changes with heliocentric distance. An expected increase in dust production with a decrease in heliocentric distance was observed. The comet went from heliocentric distance of 3.05 –1.77 AU during the observed time that corresponded to an apparent magnitude of 19.61 to 15.72 and Afρ of 16.48 cm to 284.17 cm. These values can be extrapolated to estimate a peak Afρ value at perihelion of 3824 cm. The images were obtained using a 0.5‐meter f/8.1 Ritchey‐Chrétien telescope located in Mayhill, New Mexico.     

Meteor outbursts from long-period comet dust trails

Long-period comets have narrow one-revolution old dust trails that can cause meteor outbursts when encountered by Earth. To facilitate observing campaigns that will characterize and perhaps help find Earth-threatening, long-period comets from their trace of meteoric debris, we use past accounts of outbursts from 14 different showers to calculate the future dust trail positions near Earth’s orbit. We also examine known near-Earth, long-period comets and identify five potential new showers, which can be utilized to learn more about these objects. We demonstrate that it is the one-revolution trail that is responsible for meteor outbursts. A method that calculates in what year these showers are likely to return and at what hour is presented. The calculations improve on earlier approximate methods that used the Sun’s reflex motion to gauge the trail motion relative to Earth’s orbit.     

OPTICAL TRAIL WIDTH MEASUREMENTS OF FAINT METEORS

We report results from two station, short-baseline (< 100 m) high resolution measurements of faint meteors (limiting meteor magnitude +9) with the goal of measuring their optical trail widths. Meteors were observed using two 0.40 m Newtonian telescopes (field of view ˜0.4 degrees) equipped with image intensifiers. Both telescopes were vertically oriented in a fixed mount and pointed to the same field of view. One system used a gated image intensified camera allowing the transverse velocity component to be measured. The widest trail captured, out of a total of 34 common events measured by both optical systems, had a full-width to half-maximum of 1.37±0.71 m. The widest trail overall was captured by the gated system only, and was found to have a full-width of ∼ ∼10 m. The brightness variation across this trail was found to be best represented by a Lorentzian. Most trails were smaller than our resolution limit and hence we could only place upper limits on their optical width. These were generally less than 1 m after correction for instrumental effects. Four meteors were found to have heights near 65 km and very low transverse velocities. These may be indicative of a largely unreported high density asteroidal component at these faint meteor magnitudes.     

The α-Monocerotids meteor outburst: the cross section of a comet dust trail

One minute counts obtained during the meteor outburst of α-Monocerotids on November 22, 1995, are analyzed in order to examine the possibility of filamentary structure in the stream profile. None is found. It is argued that far-comet type outbursts are due to the Earth's passage through the dust trail of a long period comet, thus offering a direct means of studying such comet dust trails. Hence, the meteor stream activity curve is the first accurate cross section of dust densities through a comet dust trail.     

The 1998 outburst and history of the June Boötid meteor shower

The June Boötid meteor shower (sometimes referred to as the Draconids) surprised a number of regular and casual observers by an outburst with maximum zenithal hourly rates (ZHRs) near 100 on 1998 June 27 after a quiescent period of several decades. A total of 1217 June Boötid meteors were recorded during regular visual meteor observations throughout this outburst. An average population index of r =2.2±0.10 was derived from 1054 shower magnitude estimates. The broad activity profile with ZHR>40 lasting more than 12 h and the large spread of apparent radiants in 1998 resemble the 1916 and 1927 outbursts. The peak time is found to be at about λ _⊙=95°.7 (2000.0); peak ZHRs are of the order of 200, whereas reliable averages reach only 81±7. The period of high ZHRs covered by a single observer implies a full width at half-maximum of 3–4 h. The resulting maximum flux of particles causing meteors brighter than +6.5 mag is between 0.04 and 0.06 km⁻² h⁻¹. The average radiant from photographic, radar and visual records is α =224°.12, δ =+47°.77. The observed activity outbursts in 1916, 1927 and 1998 are not related to the orbital period or the perihelion passages of the parent comet 7P/Pons–Winnecke. These are probably a consequence of the effects of the 2:1 resonance with Jupiter.     

Non-linear meteor trails

In this essay an attempt is made to not only review but reopen the debate on non-linear meteor trails. On the basis of data culled from various, now historical, sources it is found that approximately one in every two hundred of the visual meteors is likely to show a non-linear trail, and that of such trails about 60% will be continuously curved and 40% sinusoidal. It is suggested that two mechanisms may explain the various trail types: the continuously curved trails being a manifestation of the classical Magnus effect, and the sinusoidal trails resulting from torque-free precession.     

On the application of information theory to the optimum state-space reconstruction of the short-term solar radio flux (10.7 cm), and its prediction via a neural network

The prediction of a time series using a neural network involves an optimum state-space reconstruction. The state space of the daily 10.7-cm solar radio flux is reconstructed using an information theory approach. A multi-layer feed-forward neural net is used for short-term prediction of the time series. The convergence of the synaptic weights is obtained partially by simulated annealing and partially by the 'quick prop' variation of back-propagation. The result gives a reasonably accurate short-term prediction.     

Accurate analytical representation of Pluto modern ephemeris

An accurate development of the latest JPL’s numerical ephemeris of Pluto, DE421, to compact analytical series is done. Rectangular barycentric ICRF coordinates of Pluto from DE421 are approximated by compact Fourier series with a maximum error of 1.3 km over 1900–2050 (the entire time interval covered by the ephemeris). To calculate Pluto positions relative to the Sun, a development of rectangular heliocentric ICRF coordinates of the Solar System barycenter to Poisson series is additionally made. As a result, DE421 Pluto heliocentric positions by the new analytical series are represented to an accuracy of better than 5 km over 1900–2050.     

Photographic Observations of the 1996 Leonid Fireballs in Japan

Several Leonid fireballs were successfully photographed by the Japanese Fireball Network and by other observers in Japan on 16 November, 1996. A totals of seven of these were simultaneously observed from two or more stations, from which the orbital and physical data were deduced. The radiant of these fireballs were very small, only 0.1°, similar to that of the 1991 Perseids. The 1996 Leonids showed a lower magnitude distribution index similar to those obtained in the 1961 and 1965 Leonids. All of these showers occurred before perihelion passage of the parent comet. We conclude that we have already encountered the elongated front part of the dust trail of the Leonid parent comet, where the trail is probably composed of larger dust particles. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.