Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Land use biodiversity impacts embodied in international food trade

Agricultural land use to meet the demands of a growing population, changing diets, lifestyles and biofuel production is a significant driver of biodiversity loss. Globally applicable methods are needed to assess biodiversity impacts hidden in internationally traded food items. We used the countryside species area relationship (SAR) model to estimate the mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles species lost (i.e. species ‘committed to extinction’) due to agricultural land use within each of the 804 terrestrial ecoregion. These species lost estimates were combined with high spatial resolution global maps of crop yields to calculate species lost per ton for 170 crops in 184 countries. Finally, the impacts per ton were linked with the bilateral trade data of crop products between producing and consuming countries from FAO, to calculate the land use biodiversity impacts embodied in international crop trade and consumption. We found that 83% of total species loss is incurred due to agriculture land use devoted for domestic consumption whereas 17% is due to export production. Exports from Indonesia to USA and China embody highest impacts (20 species lost at the regional level each). In general, industrialized countries with high per capita GDP tend to be major net importers of biodiversity impacts from developing tropical countries. Results show that embodied land area is not a good proxy for embodied biodiversity impacts in trade flows, as crops occupying little global area such as sugarcane, palm oil, rubber and coffee have disproportionately high biodiversity impacts.     

Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources

Meeting the food needs of the growing and increasingly affluent human population with the planet’s limited resources is a major challenge of our time. Seen as the preferred approach to global food security issues, ‘sustainable intensification’ is the enhancement of crop yields while minimizing environmental impacts and preserving the ability of future generations to use the land. It is still unclear to what extent sustainable intensification would allow humanity to meet its demand for food commodities. Here we use the footprints for water, nitrogen, carbon and land to quantitatively evaluate resource demands and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of future agriculture and investigate whether an increase in these environmental burdens of food production can be avoided under a variety of dietary scenarios. We calculate average footprints of the current diet and find that animal products account for 43–87% of an individual’s environmental burden – compared to 18% of caloric intake and 39% of protein intake. Interestingly, we find that projected improvements in production efficiency would be insufficient to meet future food demand without also increasing the total environmental burden of food production. Transitioning to less impactful diets would in many cases allow production efficiency to keep pace with growth in human demand while minimizing the food system’s environmental burden. This study provides a useful approach for evaluating the attainability of sustainable targets and for better integrating food security and environmental impacts.     

Global-scale impact analysis of mine tailings dam failures: 1915–2020

Tailings are the waste materials generated from mining activities and are typically stored in large man-made earthen dams in the form of slurry. Failures of such tailings dams can have deleterious effects on the environment and even impact areas that are miles away from the failed dam. In this study, we updated the existing tailings dam failure database developed by the International Commission on Large Dams and World Information Service on Energy and analyzed the impacts of dam failure over the past hundred years from a global perspective. In addition, we prepared a tailings dam spatial database. The impact of mine tailings dam failure on aquatic environments was also investigated using a proxy environmental indicator—the gray water footprint. The resulting information from the historical overview of dam failures, was used to map the risk associated with existing tailings dams as well as the magnitude of tailings dam failures. Furthermore, we integrated mining commodity production data and the tailings dam failure data. This revealed that the number of failures is rising once again, and the trajectory of dam failures has shifted from developed to developing countries. Only a few dam failure incidents have had significant impacts. Although safer technologies are available to manage mine waste, most extractive industries are yet to adopt such technologies into their standard practices. Moreover, the reluctance of mining companies for the public disclosure of information related to tailings dams and dam failures hinders efforts to establish a complete tailings dam database. We have provided up-to-date tailings dam information, which may be useful for extractive industries.     

Global streamflow and thermal habitats of freshwater fishes under climate change

Climate change will affect future flow and thermal regimes of rivers. This will directly affect freshwater habitats and ecosystem health. In particular fish species, which are strongly adapted to a certain level of flow variability will be sensitive to future changes in flow regime. In addition, all freshwater fish species are exotherms, and increasing water temperatures will therefore directly affect fishes’ biochemical reaction rates and physiology. To assess climate change impacts on large-scale freshwater fish habitats we used a physically-based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework forced with an ensemble of climate model output. Future projections on global river flow and water temperature were used in combination with current spatial distributions of several fish species and their maximum thermal tolerances to explore impacts on fish habitats in different regions around the world. Results indicate that climate change will affect seasonal flow amplitudes, magnitude and timing of high and low flow events for large fractions of the global land surface area. Also, significant increases in both the frequency and magnitude of exceeding maximum temperature tolerances for selected fish species are found. Although the adaptive capacity of fish species to changing hydrologic regimes and rising water temperatures could be variable, our global results show that fish habitats are likely to change in the near future, and this is expected to affect species distributions.     

The global environmental paw print of pet food

Global pet ownership, especially of cats and dogs, is rising with income growth, and so too are the environmental impacts associated with their food. The global extent of these impacts has not been quantified, and existing national assessments are potentially biased due to the way in which they account for the relative impacts of constituent animal by-products (ABPs). ABPs typically have lower value than other animal products (i.e. meat, milk and eggs), but are nevertheless associated with non-negligible environmental impacts. Here we present the first global environmental impact assessment of pet food. The approach is novel in applying an economic value allocation approach to the impact of ABPs and other animal products to represent better the environmental burden. We find annual global dry pet food production is associated with 56–151 Mt CO₂ equivalent emissions (1.1%−2.9% of global agricultural emissions), 41–58 Mha agricultural land-use (0.8–1.2% of global agricultural land use) and 5–11 km³ freshwater use (0.2–0.4% of water extraction of agriculture). These impacts are equivalent to an environmental footprint of around twicethe UK land area, and would make greenhouse gas emission from pet food around the 60th highest emitting country, or equivalent to total emissions from countries such as Mozambique or the Philippines. These results indicate that rising pet food demand should be included in the broader global debate about food system sustainability.     

High resolution modeling of the regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand

In the Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado, surface irrigation provides most of the water required for agriculture. Consequently, the region’s future could be significantly affected if climate change impacts the amount of water available for irrigation. A methodology to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in the region is described. The Integrated Decision Support Consumptive Use model, which accounts for spatial and temporal variability in evapotranspiration and precipitation, is used in conjunction with two climate scenarios from the Vegetation-Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. The two scenarios were extracted and scaled down from two general circulation models (GCMs), the HAD from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the CCC from the Canadian Climate Centre. The results show significant changes in the water demands of crops due to climate change. The HAD and CCC climate change scenarios both predict an increase in water demand. However, the projections of the two GCMs concerning the water available for irrigation differ significantly, reflecting the large degree of uncertainty concerning what the future impacts of climate change might be in the study region. As new or updated predictions become available, the methodology described here can be used to estimate the impacts of climate change.     

Effects of climate change on oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific: implications for economic development and food security

The four species of tuna that underpin oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific (skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye and albacore tuna) deliver great economic and social benefits to Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs). Domestic tuna fleets and local fish processing operations contribute 3–20 % to gross domestic product in four PICTs and licence fees from foreign fleets provide an average of 3–40 % of government revenue for seven PICTs. More than 12,000 people are employed in tuna processing facilities and on tuna fishing vessels. Fish is a cornerstone of food security for many PICTs and provides 50–90 % of dietary animal protein in rural areas. Several PICTs have plans to (1) increase the benefits they receive from oceanic fisheries by increasing the amount of tuna processed locally, and (2) allocate more tuna for the food security of their rapidly growing populations. The projected effects of climate change on the distribution of tuna in the tropical Pacific Ocean, due to increases in sea surface temperature, changes in velocity of major currents and decreases in nutrient supply to the photic zone from greater stratification, are likely to affect these plans. PICTs in the east of the region with a high dependence on licence fees for government revenue are expected to receive more revenue as tuna catches increase in their exclusive economic zones. On the other hand, countries in the west may encounter problems securing enough fish for their canneries as tuna are redistributed progressively to the east. Changes in the distribution of tuna will also affect the proportions of national tuna catches required for food security. We present priority adaptations to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries posed by climate change and to capitalise on opportunities.     

Paper 4. climate change impacts on water resources and possible responses in the mink region

The capacity to supply both instream and offstream water uses under alternative climate conditions and likely future changes in population, technology, and water-using practices are examined through an adaptation of the framework developed in the Second National Water Assessment. Two measures of the adequacy of water supplies - the availability of renewable supplies to provide for withdrawal and instream uses and the relation between desired instream flows and current streamflows - are used to examine the impact of the 1931–1940 analog climate (with and without CO₂ enrichment) on Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas (MINK). The impacts of the analog climate on water supplies are estimated from actual streamflow data and estimates of the differences in reservoir evaporation under the 1931–1940 analog and the 1951–1980 control climates. A modification of the Erosion Productivity Inventory Calculator (EPIC) model is used to estimate the impacts of the analog climate (with and without CO₂ enrichment) on irrigation water use.Water, which is already a scarce resource in the MINK region, would become much scarcer if the climate of the 1930s were to become the norm. Mean assessed total streamflow would drop to 69% of the control climate level for the Missouri River Basin, 71% for the Upper Mississippi, and 93% for the Arkansas. Even in the absence of climate change, MINK will have less water in the year 2030 than it does today because groundwater stocks are being depleted and increased upstream diversions would reduce surface flows into these states. Irrigation and instream uses such as navigation, hydroelectric power production, recreation, and fish and wildlife habitat would be most adversely, impacted by the climate-induced changes in water supplies.     

Sediment related impacts of climate change and reservoir development in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin,Lao PDR

This study applies the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), with climate (precipitation and temperature) outputs from four general circulation models (GCMs) and a regional circulation model (PRECIS), to evaluate (1) the impacts of climate change on reservoir sedimentation and (2) the impacts of climate change and reservoir development on sediment outflow in the Nam Ou River Basin located in northern Laos. Three reservoir–density scenarios, namely one reservoir (1R), three reservoirs in series (3R), and five reservoirs in series (5R), were evaluated for both no climate change and climate change conditions. The results show that under no climate change conditions, by 2070, around 17, 14, and 15% of the existing reservoir storage volume in the basin will be lost for 1R, 3R, and 5R scenarios, respectively. Notably, under climate change scenario with highest changes in erosion and sediment outflux from the basin, the additional reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation is estimated to be nearly 26% for 1R, 21% for 3R, and 23% for 5R. Climate change alone is projected to change annual sediment outflux from the basin by ?20 to 151%. In contrast, the development of reservoirs in the basin will reduce the annual sediment outflux from the basin varying from 44 to 80% for 1R, 44–81% for 3R, and 66–89% for 5R, considering climate change. In conclusion, climate change is expected to increase the sediment yield of the Nam Ou Basin, resulting in faster reduction of the reservoir’s storage capacity. Sediment yield from the Nam Ou River Basin is likely to decrease significantly due to the trapping of sediment by planned reservoirs. The impact of reservoirs is much more significant than the impact of climate change on the sediment outflow of the basin. Hence, it is necessary to investigate appropriate reservoir sediment management strategies.     

2007年淮河暴雨洪涝的气象水文特征

利用常规气象和水文资料, 分析了2007年淮河洪涝期间的气象水文特征, 探讨了淮河暴雨致洪原因。结果表明: 2007年淮河入梅后经历了7次暴雨和大暴雨过程, 其中导致淮河洪涝的强降雨主要出现在2007年6月29日—7月10日的4场强暴雨过程。大尺度的环流分析表明:淮河的强降水出现在大尺度环流形势相对稳定的梅雨形势下, 副热带高压的稳定对于强雨带的建立影响最明显; 淮河干流的水位流量变化呈现出上游水位高, 汛情严重的特征。王家坝的水位经历了两次快速上涨后超过保证水位, 水位的变化与淮河强降雨、尤其是淮河上游强降雨过程有较好的对应关系。与历史上淮河洪涝年比较发现:2007年淮河梅雨期的总降水量低于历史上淮河洪涝年的1954年、1991年和2003年的降水量, 为历史第4位; 淮河干流的水位则超过了1991年和2003年, 为历史第2位, 上游降水量大导致了淮河出现1954年以来的高水位。     

When enough should be enough: Improving the use of current agricultural lands could meet production demands and spare natural habitats in Brazil

Providing food and other products to a growing human population while safeguarding natural ecosystems and the provision of their services is a significant scientific, social and political challenge. With food demand likely to double over the next four decades, anthropization is already driving climate change and is the principal force behind species extinction, among other environmental impacts. The sustainable intensification of production on current agricultural lands has been suggested as a key solution to the competition for land between agriculture and natural ecosystems. However, few investigations have shown the extent to which these lands can meet projected demands while considering biophysical constraints. Here we investigate the improved use of existing agricultural lands and present insights into avoiding future competition for land. We focus on Brazil, a country projected to experience the largest increase in agricultural production over the next four decades and the richest nation in terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. Using various models and climatic datasets, we produced the first estimate of the carrying capacity of Brazil's 115 million hectares of cultivated pasturelands. We then investigated if the improved use of cultivated pasturelands would free enough land for the expansion of meat, crops, wood and biofuel, respecting biophysical constraints (i.e., terrain, climate) and including climate change impacts. We found that the current productivity of Brazilian cultivated pasturelands is 32–34% of its potential and that increasing productivity to 49–52% of the potential would suffice to meet demands for meat, crops, wood products and biofuels until at least 2040, without further conversion of natural ecosystems. As a result up to 14.3 Gt CO₂ Eq could be mitigated. The fact that the country poised to undergo the largest expansion of agricultural production over the coming decades can do so without further conversion of natural habitats provokes the question whether the same can be true in other regional contexts and, ultimately, at the global scale.     

Beneficial land use change: Strategic expansion of new biomass plantations can reduce environmental impacts from EU agriculture

Society faces the double challenge of increasing biomass production to meet the future demands for food, materials and bioenergy, while addressing negative impacts of current (and future) land use. In the discourse, land use change (LUC) has often been considered as negative, referring to impacts of deforestation and expansion of biomass plantations. However, strategic establishment of suitable perennial production systems in agricultural landscapes can mitigate environmental impacts of current crop production, while providing biomass for the bioeconomy. Here, we explore the potential for such “beneficial LUC” in EU28. First, we map and quantify the degree of accumulated soil organic carbon losses, soil loss by wind and water erosion, nitrogen emissions to water, and recurring floods, in ∼81.000 individual landscapes in EU28. We then estimate the effectiveness in mitigating these impacts through establishment of perennial plants, in each landscape. The results indicate that there is a substantial potential for effective impact mitigation. Depending on criteria selection, 10–46% of the land used for annual crop production in EU28 is located in landscapes that could be considered priority areas for beneficial LUC. These areas are scattered all over Europe, but there are notable “hot-spots” where priority areas are concentrated, e.g., large parts of Denmark, western UK, The Po valley in Italy, and the Danube basin. While some policy developments support beneficial LUC, implementation could benefit from attempts to realize synergies between different Sustainable Development Goals, e.g., “Zero hunger”, “Clean water and sanitation”, “Affordable and Clean Energy”, “Climate Action”, and “Life on Land”.     

Biophysical indicators and Indigenous and Local Knowledge reveal climatic and ecological shifts with implications for Arctic Char fisheries

Managing Arctic marine resources to be resilient to environmental changes requires knowledge of how climate change is affecting marine food webs and fisheries. Changes to fishery resources will have major implications for coastal Indigenous communities whose livelihoods, health, and cultures are strongly connected to fisheries. Understanding these broad social-ecological changes requires a transdisciplinary approach bringing together contrasting and complementary disciplines and ways of knowing. Here, we examine climatic proxies, ecological, and fishery indicators (stable isotopes, fish condition, and lipid content), and interviews with Inuit fishers to assess how marine ecosystem changes have influenced Arctic Char (Salvelinus alpinus) ecology and fisheries over a 30-year time period (1987–2016) in the Kitikmeot region of the Canadian Arctic. Inuit fishers reported several observations of environmental changes, including longer ice-free seasons, warmer ocean temperatures, and the arrival of new marine species. Biophysical data revealed important changes toward earlier dates of ice breakup (>12 days in some areas) and a shift in isotopic niche reflecting a changing Arctic Char diet, with increased contribution of pelagic carbon and higher trophic level prey. Fish condition was improved in years with earlier ice breakup, as observed by both Inuit fishers and biophysical indicators, while lipid content increased through time, suggesting that longer ice-free seasons may have a positive effect on Arctic Char quality as reflected by both fish condition and lipid content. Long-term impacts of continuing climate change, however, such as the northward expansion of boreal species and increasing ocean temperatures, could have negative effects on fisheries (e.g., physiological impairment in fish if temperatures exceed their thermal range). Continuous community-based monitoring that directly informs fisheries management could help communities and managers adaptively, and sustainably, manage in the face of multiple interacting changes in Arctic marine systems.     

Corrigendum to “Meeting the food security challenge for nine billion people in 2050: What impact on forests?” [Global Environ. Change 62 (2020) 102056]

As the world’s population continues to grow, agricultural expansion is expected to increase to meet future food demand often at the expense of other land uses. However, there are limited studies examining the degree to which forest cover will change and the underlying assumptions driving these projections. Focusing on food and forest scenarios for the middle to the end of the current century, we review 63 main scenarios and 28 global modelling studies to address variations in land use projections and evaluate the potential outcomes on forest cover. Further, their potential impacts on greenhouse gases (GHG) emission/sequestration and global temperature are explored. A majority (59%) of scenarios expected a reduction in both forests and pasturelands to make way for agricultural expansion (particularly reference and no mitigation scenarios). In most scenarios, the extent of forest loss is proportional to that of crop gain, which is associated with higher GHG emission and global temperature, loss of carbon sequestration potential and increase in soil erosion. However, 32% of scenarios predicted that meeting food security objectives is possible without leading to further deforestation if there is a global reduction in the demand for energy intensive foods, and improvements in crop yields. Forest gain and lower rates of deforestation are needed to achieve ambitious climate targets over the next decade. Our analysis also highlights carbon taxes (prices), reforestation/afforestation and bioenergy as important variables that can contribute to maintaining or increasing global forest area in the future.     

Surf or turf: A shift from feed to food cultivation could reduce nutrient flux to the Gulf of Mexico

The extensive use of nitrogen fertilizer on the central U.S. croplands contributes to nitrogen loading by the Mississippi River and the development of seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. The majority of grains cultivated on central U.S. croplands are used as animal feed, rather than directly as human food. In this study, the IBIS-THMB nitrogen modeling system is used to demonstrate how a shift away from meat production from Mississippi Basin crops could reduce total land and fertilizer demands by over 50%, without any change in total production of human food protein. The change would return nitrate-nitrogen export by the Mississippi River to levels at which the Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” has been small or non-existent. An analysis of future land use scenarios and other mitigation proposals, including the construction of riparian wetlands, indicates that a reduced focus on beef production may need to be a part of nitrogen management policy in the Mississippi Basin.     

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined.Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.     

The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2 °C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5 %. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.     

Climate simulations of major estuarine watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US

To better understand the implications of anthropogenic climate change for three major Mid-Atlantic estuaries (the Chesapeake Bay, the Delaware Bay, and the Hudson River Estuary), we analyzed the regional output of seven global climate models. The simulation given by the average of the models was generally superior to individual models, which differed dramatically in their ability to simulate twentieth-century climate. The model average had little bias in its mean temperature and precipitation and, except in the Lower Chesapeake Watershed, was able to capture the twentieth-century temperature trend. Weaknesses in the model average were too much seasonality in temperature and precipitation, a shift in precipitation’s summer maximum to spring and winter minimum to fall, interannual variability that was too high in temperature and too low in precipitation, and inability to capture the twentieth-century precipitation increase. There is some evidence that model deficiencies are related to land surface parameterizations. All models warmed over the twenty-first century under the six greenhouse gas scenarios considered, with an increase of 4.7 ± 2.0°C (model mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the A2 scenario (a medium-high emission scenario) over the Chesapeake Bay Watershed by 2070–2099. Precipitation projections had much weaker consensus, with a corresponding increase of 3 ± 12% for the A2 scenario, but in winter there was a more consistent increase of 8 ± 7%. The projected climate averaged over the four best-performing models was significantly cooler and wetter than the projected seven-model-average climate. Precipitation projections were within the range of interannual variability but temperature projections were not. The implied research needs are for improvements in precipitation projections and a better understanding of the impacts of warming on streamflow and estuarine ecology and biogeochemistry.     

Modeling the transport of nutrients and sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under projected climatic changes

The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.