Understanding interlinkages between long-term trajectory of exposure and vulnerability,path dependency and cascading impacts of disasters in Saint-Martin (Caribbean)

This empirical and interdisciplinary study investigates the contribution of deeply enrooted social-political factors to the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability and amplification of cascading impacts of disasters, with implications on the creation and reinforcement of path dependency maintaining social-ecological systems on a maladaptive trajectory. Applying the Trajectory of Exposure and Vulnerability approach to Saint-Martin (Caribbean), we more specifically highlight how the causal chain linking historical geopolitical and political-institutional drivers to legal, economic, demographic, sociocultural, planning-related and environmental drivers, created the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability over time and contributed to the propagation and amplification of the impacts of tropical cyclones Irma and José in 2017. We find that historical social-political dynamics involving unsustainable development and settlement patterns, the weakness of local institutions, population mistrust in public authorities, high social inequalities and environmental degradation maintained Saint-Martin on a maladaptive trajectory through powerful reinforcing mechanisms operating both between and during cyclonic events. This study demonstrates that long-term interdisciplinary approaches are required for a better understanding of path dependency and the identification of levers to break it in risk-prone contexts. In Saint-Martin, breaking path dependency requires the alignment of local institutional capacities with national risk reduction policies, the promotion of social justice and involvement of local communities in decision making. This study therefore confirms the relevance of backward-looking approaches to support forward-looking climate adaptation.     

2006-2016年昆明市雷电致灾因素分析及易损性风险区划

基于近11 a（2006-2016）云南省闪电定位监测数据以及雷电灾害汇编资料,运用ArcGIS对闪电数据与地理信息进行叠加,分析昆明市地闪活动规律和雷电灾害时空分布特征,结合地理环境、人口分布和经济社会发展情况,研究雷电致灾成因机制。从灾害系统理论和综合易损性出发,构建评价指标体系及权重判断矩阵,计算雷电灾害风险综合评价指数R值并进行分级,形成昆明市雷电灾害易损性风险区划。结果表明：频繁活跃的地闪活动是导致雷电灾害多发的主要致灾影响因子,雷电灾害的时空分布与地闪活动的变化特征存在较好的对应关系。全市有雷电灾害高易损区3个,次高易损区2个,中易损区4个,次低易损区4个,低易损区1个,建立雷电灾害易损性区划,能够为确定雷电防护重点和防范等级提供必要的参考依据,通过完善雷电防护措施,可以增强承灾体抵御雷电灾害的能力。     

自然灾害影响及(预)评估

对达州市自然灾害的总体特征、影响情况和形成原因进行了分析.并对21世纪初期(2000～2010年)自然灾害可能发生的情况和造成的影响进行了预评估.     

自然灾害影响及（预）评估

对达州市自然灾害的总体特征、影响情况和形成原因进行了分析。并对21世纪初期(2000～2010年)自然灾害可能发生的情况和造成的影响进行了预评估。     

The comparison of two severe Hwangsa (Asian dust) cases of spring and winter in Seoul, Korea

This study investigated meteorological, physical, and chemical characteristics of 2 severe Hwangsa (Asian dust, maximum average of PM₁₀ above 1000 μg m^?3) observed in Seoul, the capital city of Korea, during 30～31^st May, 2008 (DSS2008) and 25～26^th December, 2009 (DSS2009). DSS2008 and DSS2009 had a same source region and route. However, they have different meteorological conditions. DSS2009 had a shorter travel time from the source region to Korea and shorter duration time in Korea than DSS2008 due to a strong winter Siberian anticyclone. One of DSS2008 sample was affected by not only Asian dust but also a long-range transported haze due to consecutive influx after low pressure passed while DSS2009 sample collected only dust aerosol. For both cases, the mass concentration of coarse particles (PM_10-1) increased by 3～14 times compared to that during non Asian dust period, however, that of fine particles (PM₁) increased only in DSS2008. For DSS2008 water-soluble ion balance between anions and cations in fine mode was close to 1:1 while cations were higher than anions in coarse mode. NH₄ ⁺ and Ca²⁺ were found to be the main contributing factors for the neutralization. Cl^? loss was observed about 60% indicating an active interaction of Na⁺ with pollutants. Reconstruction of chemical compositions showed relatively high concentrations of secondary pollutants (NH₄NO₃ and (NH₄)₂SO₄), CaCO₃, and Ca(NO₃)₂ compared to that during non Asian dust period. DSS2009 exhibited the typical characteristics of Asian dust having a high concentration of Ca²⁺ with higher equivalent concentration of cations than anions in all size bins. Cl^? loss was hardly observed. The secondary pollutants were lower than that of non Asian dust cases. The result of reconstruction of ionic components indicated the CaCO₃ derived from soil particle, CaSO₄, and Ca (NO₃)₂ were dominant in DSS2009.     

Urban vulnerability and adaptation to heatwaves: a case study of Graz (Austria)

The increasing frequency of heatwaves, particularly in urban contexts, is one of the perceptible consequences of climate change. A city’s vulnerability to these heatwaves must be determined to develop proper adaptation measures. This article addresses the vulnerability of a medium-sized city in Central Europe, Graz, to heatwaves. Based on secondary data and primary data gathered from expert interviews, we identified certain determinants of vulnerability for the city: temperature, proportion of open and green spaces to developed areas, construction period of buildings, distribution of age and poverty risk, adaptation strategies used, and risk perception levels assessed for decision makers in the city administration. Certain city districts can be classified as particularly vulnerable. A high level of risk perception was detected among all decision makers and some adaptation measures have already been enacted. In particular, inter-organizational collaboration in adaptation networks works effectively. A deficit in efficient communication between researchers, policy makers, and members of the public was perceived to be the main barrier. This case study exemplifies the assessment of a city’s vulnerability to heatwaves on the basis of particular determinants and can be applied to many other cities.

Policy relevance

The method applied revealed potential improvements and opportunities on the policy level. Strong networks for climate change adaptation are most effective if regular meetings take place, allowing trust and friendship to grow between decision makers. More target-group-oriented information is needed. Emergency organizations, in particular, need more information, because the perception of heatwave risks has only been based thus far on personal experiences. By establishing a central authority, more information could be provided on heatwaves in cities. The need to raise the perception of members of the population and motivate them to take personal responsibility during disasters was emphasized by interviewed decision makers. This can be supported by providing advice during heatwaves through newspapers, TV, and radio. People in risk groups and their relatives could be trained in workshops. City areas that are at high risk should be marked on maps to make relevant information more tangible for decision makers.     

Institutional dynamics: Resilience,vulnerability and adaptation in environmental and resource regimes

Like all social institutions, governance systems that address human–environment relations – commonly know as environmental or resource regimes – are dynamic. Although analysts have examined institutional change from a variety of perspectives, a particularly puzzling feature of institutional dynamics arises from the fact that some regimes linger on relatively unchanged even after they have become ineffective, while others experience state changes or even collapse in the wake of seemingly modest trigger events. This article employs the framework developed to study resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation in socio-ecological systems (the SES framework) in an effort to illuminate the conditions leading to state changes in environmental and resource regimes. Following a discussion of several conceptual issues, it examines institutional stresses, stress management mechanisms, and the changes that occur when interactive and cumulative stresses overwhelm these mechanisms. An important conclusion concerns the desirability of thinking systematically about institutional reform in a timely manner, in order to be prepared for brief windows of opportunity to make planned changes in environmental regimes when state changes occur.     

乌鲁木齐市冬季严重污染日的环流分型特征

根据2000-2008年冬季逐日08时高空500 hPa、地面天气图和官方网站发布的乌鲁木齐市逐日大气污染指数API值,分析了全市大气污染概况及季节分布、月际变化特征,研究了环流形势对全市空气质量的影响。结果表明：影响乌鲁木齐市的环流形势分为高空7型和地面5型,分析各型环流形势与冬季严重污染日相关性;最易引发冬季严重污染的环流形势是高空脊中型、地面低压型,其次为脊前型或空档型、地面高压后型。     

Maintenance and development of the Ural high and its contribution to severe cold wave activities in winter 2020/21

2020年底至2021年初,连续两次强寒潮入侵中国东部地区,导致大范围强降温.本文研究这两次寒潮的特征和形成机理.主要结果如下:从2020年12月中旬到2021年1月中旬,乌拉尔山地区维持一宽阔的高压脊.脊前北风的维持和加强导致局地斜压性增加,导致下游横槽槽底等高线梯度加大,冷平流加强,西伯利亚高压加强和向南扩张.准定...     

国际防灾减灾面临的一些问题和我国气象防灾减灾工作的基本思路

1国际防灾减灾面临的一些问题众所周知,自然灾害已成为制约人类社会和经济可持续发展的潜在因素。联合国曾经公布的1947～1980年全球造成人员伤亡最严重的10种自然灾害(热带气旋、地震、洪涝、雷暴与龙卷、雪暴、火山爆发、山体滑坡、风暴潮与海啸、热浪、雪崩),其中大部分是气象灾害引起的。根据世界气象组织的统计,由气象现象引起的灾害占整个自然灾害的70％,每年由气象现象引起的自然灾害造成的经济损失是500亿美元,1965年以来全球受自然灾害影响达20亿人口,有300万人失去了生命。当今世界,经济的发达与社会的发展,使得气象灾害…     

陕西省２００８年元月低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析

2008年1月10日至31日,陕西省出现了的历史罕见的低温雨雪冰冻天气过程,造成严重损失。资料分析表明：该过程从1月10日开始到29日全省雨雪天气基本结束,31日全省降温基本结束,其间出现了3次明显降雪和降温,主要降雪区域在陕北北部和关中西部;大气环流异常致使冷暖空气多次交汇于陕西省上空,这是发生低温雨雪冰冻灾害的直接原因;本次过程具有范围广、强度大、持续时间长、对许多行业造成严重影响等特点。     

干旱严重指数(DSI)在内蒙古地区的适用性分析

利用MODIS遥感产品计算内蒙古地区2000-2019年植被生长季的于旱严重指数(DSI),并结合气象干旱综合指数(MCI)、植被状态指数(VCI)等干旱指数和典型干旱过程,对DSI在内蒙古地区的适用性进行分析.研究表明,DSI与MCI、VCI的平均相关系数为0.509和0.839,分别通过0.05和0.01的显著性检...     

江苏省冬季连阴雨（雪）期间异常环流特征及其成因

利用江苏省24个国家站降水、日照时数观测资料,以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、海温指数、HadISST全球海表温度资料,采用EOF分析、合成分析等方法,分析了1961—2019年江苏省冬季连阴雨（雪）出现次数全省一致偏多年份的异常环流特征及其成因。结果表明：江苏省冬季连阴雨（雪）出现次数的空间分布主要为全省一致型和南北相异型,前者为主要模态。连阴雨（雪）出现次数全省一致偏多型年份,中高纬高层欧亚地区上空环流形势为“＋ － ＋”分布型,位于青藏高原北部高压脊以及东亚大槽和欧洲东部低压槽均较常年偏弱。低层位于欧亚地区中部的冷高压较常年偏弱,导致冷空气势力偏弱。中低纬低层西太平洋(菲律宾附近)存在异常反气旋环流,其西部的异常偏南气流加强了水汽的向北输送,冷暖气流在30°N交汇抬升,为江苏省连阴雨（雪）天气过程提供了有利的水汽条件和抬升条件。当中部型El Nio事件发生时,Walker环流在西太平洋的异常下沉气流会激发出异常反气旋,使得东亚冬季风减弱,向北水汽输送加强,导致江苏省一致偏多型连阴雨（雪）天气的发生。     

The Ocean-Atmosphere coupled regimes and east asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity

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Formate and acetate levels compared in monsoon and winter rainwater at Dayalbagh, Agra (India)

A total of 59 rainwater samples were collected during the winter and monsoon (1991–92) at Dayalbagh, Agra. This site is relatively free from the influence of anthropogenic emissions and the volume-weighted average concentrations (VWA) of formate in the winter and monsoon were 22.5±6, 16.1±3 while acetate VWAs were 17.1±5 and 13.8±3 mol l^-1, respectively. Although the VWAs varied between seasons, it was not statistically different. Total deposition (in mmol m^-2) varied between season (winter formate, 1.4; acetate, 1.1; monsoon formate, 7.4; acetate, 6.4). A difference in VWA values may have occurred as a result of the dilution factor; the total rain depth from collected samples in the monsoon was 46 cm while that in winter was 6.3 cm. Sources at this site may be anthropogenic and natural; scavenging from the vapour phase, washout of soil particles and emissions from vegetative sources are probably important sources for formate and acetate.     

Temporal vulnerability in hazardscapes: Flood memory-networks and referentiality along the North Carolina Neuse River (USA)

Social models of population vulnerability to disasters increasingly include the notion that vulnerability has a strong temporal component. While this temporality is typically conceptualized as objective (making vulnerability “dynamic,” “multiscalar,” and/or “historical”), it consistently fails to acknowledge that among stakeholders managing hazardscapes temporality is also a social process in which subjective experience of time may play a role in creating situations of population vulnerability. This paper proposes that the temporal situatedness of a population relative to past hazard events and the quality with which stakeholders engage hazard memory-chains combine to significantly influences its vulnerability to natural hazards. It is proposed that this temporal vulnerability is characterized by shared, population level potential for surprise and can be evaluated by exploration of time-series depth and temporal reference points in historical ecological narratives and documents. Based on ethnohistoric research conducted from 2002 to 2006 in flood-prone eastern North Carolina (USA), it is illustrated how temporal vulnerability was relatively higher in the Neuse River watershed located at the City of Kinston than surrounding watersheds. Due to the combination of factors including the damming of the Neuse River in the 1980s, outdated official floodplain maps, relatively unmonitored floodplain development, the stochastic timing of flood events (placing the last major flood more than a generation away), technological optimism, and turnover of floodplain officials and residents, local stakeholders were seriously misinformed about the space-time risks involved both before and after the disaster of Hurricane Floyd (1999) happened. To deal with this inconsistency, the temporal rarity of Hurricane Floyd as a “500-year event” has been motivated and embraced by many in an effort to continue life-as-is. The paper proposes that the concept of temporal vulnerability is further explored and used as key dimension in the vulnerability sciences.     

Modeling of a severe winter drought in eastern China using different initial and lateral boundary forcing datasets

To highlight the compatibility of climate model simulation and proxy reconstruction at different timescales, a timescale separation merging method combining proxy records and climate model simulations is presented. Annual mean surface temperature anomalies for the last millennium (851–2005 AD) at various scales over the land of the Northern Hemisphere were reconstructed with 2° × 2° spatial resolution, using an optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. All target series were decomposed using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method followed by power spectral analysis. Four typical components were obtained at inter-annual, decadal, multidecadal, and centennial timescales. A total of 323 temperature-sensitive proxy chronologies were incorporated after screening for each component. By scaling the proxy components using variance matching and applying a localized OI algorithm to all four components point by point, we obtained merged surface temperatures. Independent validation indicates that the most significant improvement was for components at the inter-annual scale, but this became less evident with increasing timescales. In mid-latitude land areas, 10–30% of grids were significantly corrected at the inter-annual scale. By assimilating the proxy records, the merged results reduced the gap in response to volcanic forcing between a pure reconstruction and simulation. Difficulty remained in verifying the centennial information and quantifying corresponding uncertainties, so additional effort should be devoted to this aspect in future research.