Can REDD+ social safeguards reach the ‘right’ people? Lessons from Madagascar

There is extensive debate about the potential impact of the climate mechanism REDD+ on the welfare of forest-dwelling people. To provide emission reductions, REDD+ must slow the rate of deforestation and forest degradation: such a change will tend to result in local opportunity cost to farmers at the forest frontier. Social safeguard processes to mitigate negative impacts of REDD+ are being developed and can learn from existing safeguard procedures such as those implemented by the World Bank. Madagascar has a number of REDD+ pilot projects with World Bank support including the Corridor Ankeniheny-Zahamena (CAZ). Nearly two thousand households around the corridor have been identified as ‘project affected persons’ (PAPs) and given compensation. We compare households identified as project affected persons with those not identified. We found households with more socio-political power locally, those with greater food security, and those that are more accessible were more likely to be identified as eligible for compensation while many people likely to be negatively impacted by the REDD+ project did not receive compensation. We identify three issues which make it difficult for a social safeguard assessment to effectively target the households for compensation: (a) poor information on location of communities and challenging access means that information does not reach remote households; (b) reluctance of people dependant on shifting agriculture to reveal this due to government sanctions; and (c) reliance by safeguard assessors on non-representative local institutions. We suggest that in cases where the majority of households are likely to bear costs and identification of affected households is challenging, the optimal, and principled, strategy may be blanket compensation offered to all the households in affected communities; avoiding the dead weight costs of ineffective safeguard assessments. The Paris Agreement in December 2015 recognised REDD+ as a key policy instrument for climate change mitigation and explicitly recognised the need to respect human rights in all climate actions. However, safeguards will be prone to failure unless those entitled to compensation are aware of their rights and enabled to seek redress where safeguards fail. This research shows that existing safeguard commitments are not always being fulfilled and those implementing social safeguards in REDD+ should not continue with business as usual.     

What drives the success of reforestation projects in tropical developing countries? The case of the Philippines

In response to substantial deforestation over many decades, large scale reforestation programs are being implemented across many tropical developing countries. Examples include the United Nations Billion Trees Campaign, the National Greening Program in the Philippines, and the 5 million ha reforestation program in Vietnam. However, while substantial investments are being made in reforestation, little information exists on the drivers influencing reforestation success and how these interact to determine environmental and socio-economic outcomes. In this study we surveyed 43 reforestation projects on Leyte Island, The Philippines to identify the drivers that most influence reforestation success as measured by key indicators drawn from the literature, including interactions between drivers and between drivers and indicators. We investigated 98 potential success drivers, including technical and biophysical factors; socio-economic factors; institutional, policy and management factors; and reforestation project characteristics. We also measured 12 success indicators, including forest establishment, forest growth, environmental and socio-economic success indicators. Stepwise multiple regressions were used to identify significant relationships among drivers and indicators and this analysis was used to develop a system of driver and indicator relationships. Based on this we found that revegetation method, funding source, education and awareness campaigns, the dependence of local people on forests, reforestation incentives, project objectives, forest protection mechanisms and the condition of road infrastructure were highly connected drivers that influenced multiple success indicators either directly or indirectly. We conclude that policies targeting revegetation methods, socioeconomic incentives, forest protection mechanisms, sustainable livelihoods, diversification of funding and partnerships, technical support, and infrastructure development are likely to have a broad systemic and beneficial effect on the success of reforestation programs in tropical developing countries.     

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) in the face of external biophysical stressors

Economic instruments such as Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes are increasingly promoted to protect ecosystems (and their associated ecosystem services) that are threatened by processes of local and global change. Biophysical stressors external to a PES site, such as forest fires, pollution, sea level rise, and ocean acidification, may undermine ecosystem stability and sustained ecosystem service provision, yet their threats and impacts are difficult to account for within PES scheme design. We present a typology of external biophysical stressors, characterizing them in terms of stressor origin, spatial domain and temporal scale. We further analyse how external stressors can potentially impinge on key PES parameters, as they (1) threaten ecosystem service provision, additionality and permanence, (2) add challenges to the identification of PES providers and beneficiaries, and (3) add complexity and costs to PES mechanism design. Effective PES implementation under external stressors requires greater emphasis on the evaluation and mitigation of external stressors, and further instruments that can accommodate associated risks and uncertainties. A greater understanding of external stressors will increase our capacity to design multi-scale instruments to conserve important ecosystems in times of environmental change.     

Forest law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon: Costs and income effects

Despite recent success in reducing forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon, additional forest conservation efforts, for example, through ‘Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation’ (REDD+), could significantly contribute to global climate-change mitigation. Economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services could promote conservation, but deforestation often occurs on land without crucial tenure-security prerequisites. Improving the enforcement of existing regulatory disincentives thus represents an important element of Brazil's anti-deforestation action plan. However, conservation law enforcement costs and benefits have been much less studied than for conditional payments. We develop a conceptual framework and a spatially explicit model to analyze field-based regulatory enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon. We validate our model, based on historical deforestation and enforcement mission data from 2003 to 2008. By simulating the current conservation law enforcement practice, we analyze the costs of liability establishment and legal coercion for alternative conservation targets, and evaluate corresponding income impacts. Our findings suggest that spatial patterns of both deforestation and inspection costs markedly influence enforcement patterns and their income effects. Field-based enforcement is a highly cost-effective forest conservation instrument from a regulator's point of view, but comes at high opportunity costs for land users. Payments for environmental services could compensate costs, but will increase budget outlays vis-à-vis a command-and-control dominated strategy. Both legal and institutional challenges have to be overcome to make conservation payments work at a larger scale. Decision-makers may have to innovatively combine incentive and disincentive-based policy instruments in order to make tropical forest conservation both financially viable and socially compatible.     

Evaluating bundles of interventions to prevent peat-fires in Indonesia

The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape of global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk of large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures and agricultural support. However, numerous programmes have largely failed. Bundles of interventions are proposed as promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy interventions to combine and how to align such bundles to local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate the impact of two types of interventions and of their combinations, in reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that are conditional on environmental performance), and deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns for health). We look at the impact of these interventions in 10 villages with varying landscape and fire-risk contexts in Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation of a standardised programme allows us to study outcome variability through a natural experiment design. We conduct a systematic cross-case comparison to identify the most effective combinations of interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and geospatial and socio-economic survey data (n = 303). We analysed the combined influence of proximate conditions (interventions, e.g. fear of sanction) and remote ones (context; e.g. extent of peat soil) on fire outcomes. We show how, depending on the level of risk in the pre-existing context, certain bundles of interventions are needed to succeed. We found that, despite the programme being framed as rewards-based, people were not responding to the reward alone. Rather sanctions and soliciting concern appeared central to fire prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute to the emerging global interest in peat fire mitigation, and the rapidly developing literature on PES performance.     

Changing environment and development institutions to enable payments for ecosystem services: The role of institutional work

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are increasingly promoted as nature-based solutions to climate, environmental, and business challenges. While participation in PES schemes is mandated in countries such as China, Costa Rica, and Vietnam, it remains unclear how PES schemes emerge in countries devoid of national mandates. This article investigates how actors have attempted institutional change to enable PES, by reinterpreting or adapting national laws, policies, and plans. We present an analytical framework theorising how geographical variations in (1) institutional frameworks, and (2) actor capabilities, dictate which institutions actors attempt to change. We then apply this framework to multi-scalar actors and institutions in Thailand and the Philippines. Our empirics reveal the types of institutional work that actors perform such as advocacy, education, mimicry, and networking, and demonstrate how this creates legal and discursive support, and improves stakeholder awareness and acceptance of PES as an environmental management strategy. Eight formal institutions are shown to have undergone change to enable PES across these countries, including those related to indigenous people, energy production, protected areas, pollution control, carbon offsetting, and decentralised governance. We show institutional change to be a geographical and contextual process that requires actors to match the right types of institutional work, with the right mechanism of institutional change, and a suitable target institution if they are to be successful in effecting change. Yet, we also report failed attempts, and explain how informal cultural norms act as challenges to formal institutional change. Through our comparative analysis of multiple institutions, actors, and national settings, we identify trends and make recommendations with global relevance to PES scholars and practitioners, and that can aid other initiatives that seek to address climate change and promote environmental sustainability.     

A conceptual framework and its application for addressing leakage: the case of avoided deforestation

Abstract

One of the most challenging technical issues associated with project-based mechanisms is that of leakage. A conceptual framework is proposed for the identification and analysis of leakage potentially generated by a project. The categorization of leakage based on the actors responsible for their manifestation is proposed, which divides sources of leakage into primary and secondary types. It is the actors or agents responsible for the baseline activities that cause primary leakage. Secondary leakage occurs when the project's outputs create incentives for third parties to increase emissions elsewhere. This distinction, based on the source of leakage, provides a basis for the analysis outlined in the paper. The extent and type of leakage will vary depending on the project typology and design. Using a decision tree approach, the process of identifying potential sources of leakage is demonstrated for the case study of avoided deforestation projects. If the main elements determining a baseline are properly identified and understood, in particular the ‘baseline agents’, a combination of the decision tree approach and apportioning responsibility, can assist in the quantification and monitoring of primary leakage. An analysis at the project design stage can also assist in minimizing the risk of future leakage. Econometric methods may prove more useful in analyzing secondary leakage.     

A conceptual framework and its application for addressing leakage: the case of avoided deforestation

One of the most challenging technical issues associated with project-based mechanisms is that of leakage. A conceptual framework is proposed for the identification and analysis of leakage potentially generated by a project. The categorization of leakage based on the actors responsible for their manifestation is proposed, which divides sources of leakage into primary and secondary types. It is the actors or agents responsible for the baseline activities that cause primary leakage. Secondary leakage occurs when the project’s outputs create incentives for third parties to increase emissions elsewhere. This distinction, based on the source of leakage, provides a basis for the analysis outlined in the paper. The extent and type of leakage will vary depending on the project typology and design. Using a decision tree approach, the process of identifying potential sources of leakage is demonstrated for the case study of avoided deforestation projects. If the main elements determining a baseline are properly identified and understood, in particular the ‘baseline agents’, a combination of the decision tree approach and apportioning responsibility, can assist in the quantification and monitoring of primary leakage. An analysis at the project design stage can also assist in minimizing the risk of future leakage. Econometric methods may prove more useful in analyzing secondary leakage.     

Enhancing the sustainability of commodity supply chains in tropical forest and agricultural landscapes

The rapid expansion of the production of agricultural commodities such as beef, cocoa, palm oil, rubber and soybean is associated with high rates of deforestation in tropical forest landscapes. Many state, civil society and market sector actors are engaged in developing and implementing innovative interventions that aim to enhance the sustainability of commodity supply chains by affecting where and how agricultural production occurs, particularly in relation to forests. These interventions – in the form of novel or moderated institutions and policies, incentives, or information and technology – can influence producers directly or achieve their impacts indirectly by influencing consumer, retailer and processor decisions. However, the evidence base for assessing the impacts of these interventions in reducing the negative impacts of commodity agriculture production in tropical forest landscapes remains limited, and there has been little comparative analysis across commodities, cases, and countries. Further, there is little consensus of the governance mechanisms and institutional arrangements that best support such interventions. We develop a framework for analyzing commodity supply chain interventions by different actors across multiple contexts. The framework can be used to comparatively analyze interventions and their impacts on commodity production with respect to the spatial and temporal scales over which they operate, the groups of supply chain actors they affect, and the combinations of mechanisms upon which they depend. We find that the roles of actors in influencing agricultural production depends on their position and influence within the supply chain; that complementary institutions, incentives and information are often combined; and that multi-stakeholder collaborations between different groups of actors are common. We discuss how the framework can be used to characterize different interventions using a common language and structure, to aid planning and analysis of interventions, and to facilitate the evaluation of interventions with respect to their structure and outcomes. Studying the collective experience of multiple interventions across commodities and spatial contexts is necessary to generate more systematic understandings of the impacts of commodity supply chain interventions in forest-agriculture landscapes.     

Enforcement and inequality in collective PES to reduce tropical deforestation: Effectiveness,efficiency and equity implications

Collective Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), where forest users receive compensation conditional on group rather than individual performance, are an increasingly used policy instrument to reduce tropical deforestation. However, implementing effective, (cost) efficient and equitable (3E) collective PES is challenging because individuals have an incentive to free ride on others’ conservation actions. Few comparative studies exist on how different enforcement strategies can improve collective PES performance. We conducted a framed field experiment in Brazil, Indonesia and Peru to evaluate how three different strategies to contain the local free-rider problem perform in terms of the 3Es: (i) Public monitoring of individual deforestation, (ii) internal, peer-to-peer sanctions (Community enforcement) and (iii) external sanctions (Government enforcement). We also examined how inequality in wealth, framed as differences in deforestation capacity, affects policy performance. We find that introducing individual level sanctions can improve the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of collective PES, but there is no silver bullet that consistently improves all 3Es across country sites. Public monitoring reduced deforestation and improved the equity of the program in sites with stronger history of collective action. External sanctions provided the strongest and most robust improvement in the 3Es. While internal, peer enforcement can significantly reduce free riding, it does not improve the program’s efficiency, and thus participants’ earnings. The sanctioning mechanisms failed to systematically improve the equitable distribution of benefits due to the ineffectiveness of punishments to target the largest free-riders. Inequality in wealth increased group deforestation and reduced the efficiency of Community enforcement in Indonesia but had no effect in the other two country sites. Factors explaining differences across country sites include the history of collective action and land tenure systems.     

The implications of ignoring smallholder agriculture in climate-financed forestry projects: empirical evidence from two REDD+ pilot projects

ABSTRACT

Changes in agricultural practices can play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation by reducing the need for land use change as one of the biggest sources of GHG emissions, and by enabling carbon sequestration in farmers’ fields. Expansion of smallholder and commercial agriculture is often one of the main driving forces behind deforestation and forest degradation. However, mitigation programmes such as REDD+ are geared towards conservation efforts in the forestry sector without prominently taking into account smallholder agricultural interests in project design and implementation. REDD+ projects often build on existing re- and afforestation projects without major changes in their principles, interests and assumptions. Informed by case study research and interviews with national and international experts, we illustrate with examples from Ethiopia and Indonesia how REDD+ projects are implemented, how they fail to adequately incorporate the demands of smallholder farmers and how this leads to a loss of livelihoods and diminishing interest in participating in REDD+ by local farming communities. The study shows how the conservation-based benefits and insecure funding base in REDD+ projects do not compensate for the contraction in livelihoods from agriculture. Combined with exclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms, this results in an increased pressure on forest resources, diverging from the principal objective of REDD+. We note a gap between the REDD+ narratives at international level (i.e. coupling development with a climate agenda) and the livelihood interests of farming communities on the ground. We argue that without incorporating agricultural interests and a review of financial incentives in the design of future climate finance mechanisms, objectives of both livelihood improvements and GHG emission reductions will be missed.

Key policy insights

• REDD+ is positioned as a promising tool to meet climate, conservation and development targets. However, these expectations are not being met in practice as the interests of smallholder farmers are poorly addressed.

• REDD+ policy developers and implementers need more focus on understanding the interests and dynamics of smallholder agriculturalists to enable inclusive, realistic and long-lasting projects.

• For REDD+ to succeed, funders need to consider how to better ensure long-term livelihood security for farming communities.

     

The principal-agent problem and climate change adaptation on public lands

Climate change presents clear risks to natural resources, which carry potential economic costs. The limited nature of physical, financial, human and natural resources means that governments, as managers of natural resources, must make careful decisions regarding trade-offs and the potential future value of investments in climate change adaptation. This paper presents cost-benefit analysis of scenarios to characterise economic benefits of adaptation from the perspective of a public institution (the provincial government) and private agents (forest licensees). The example provided is the context of assisted migration strategies for regenerating forests that are currently being implemented in British Columbia to reduce future impacts of climate change on forests. The analysis revealed positive net present value of public investment in assisted migration across all scenarios under a range of conditions; however, private sector agents face disincentives to adopt these strategies. Uncertainty about how the costs, benefits and risks associated with climate change impacts will be distributed among public institutions and private actors influences incentives to adapt to climate change (the “principal-agent problem”) and further complicates adaptation. Absent development of risk-sharing mechanisms or re-alignment of incentives, uptake of assisted migration strategies by private agents is likely to be limited, creating longer-term risks for public institutions. Analyzing incentives and disincentives facing principals and agents using a well-known tool (cost-benefit analysis) can help decision-makers to identify and address underlying barriers to climate change adaptation in the context of public lands management.     

Trajectories of deforestation,coffee expansion and displacement of shifting cultivation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam

Production of commodities for global markets is an increasingly important factor of tropical deforestation, taking over smallholders subsistence farming. Measures to reduce deforestation and convert shifting cultivation systems towards permanent crops have recently been strengthened in several countries. But these changes have variable environmental and social impacts, including on ethnic minorities. In Vietnam, although a forest transition – i.e. shift from shrinking to expanding forest cover – occurred at the national scale, deforestation fronts and agricultural colonization for commodity crops – a.o. coffee – still dominated the Central Highlands plateaus. Previous studies suggested that the dominant land use changes in that region were on the one hand the acquisition and conversion of agricultural lands to perennial crops for external markets by capital-endowed Kinh households – the majority ethnic group in Vietnam – and on the other hand the corresponding displacement of poor households of ethnic minorities relying on shifting cultivation towards the forest margins. This study tested this hypothesis by using remote sensing to analyze land use and cover changes and deforestation trajectories in the coffee-growing area in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces over 2000–2010. Land use changes were linked with socioeconomic dynamics using secondary statistics and spatial modelling. Net deforestation reached ?0.31% y^?1 of the total area between 2000 and 2010. Deforestation was indeed mainly directly caused by shifting cultivation for annual crops, but this was partly driven indirectly by expansion of coffee and other perennial crops over agricultural lands. Displacement of shifting cultivation into the forest margins, pushed by market crops expansion, was the spatial manifestation of the marginalization of local ethnic minorities and poor migrants, pushed by capital-endowed migrants. This marginalization is a long-standing process rooted in the colonization and development strategy for the highlands followed since colonial times. Over the late 2000s, rapid deforestation was strongly reducing the benefits of national-scale forest recovery, and might shift the country back to net losses of natural forest. Implications for policies that may affect deforestation are discussed.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Assessment of the management of organizations supplying ecosystem services from tropical forests

Global environmental change leads to degradation of tropical forests in many countries. In response to this pressure, programs for payments for ecosystem services (PES) are developing and organizations are emerging which manage forests in order to supply ecosystem services, rather than only harvest timber. Typically such services are carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, pollination, and watershed protection. Public or private actors interested to invest in or donate money for the provisioning of such services are faced with the problem of choosing the appropriate organization supplying ecosystem services. The goal of this paper was to develop an assessment framework based on the balanced scorecard concept including drivers, impact, performance and context variables. Results of a survey of international market actors were used to determine assessment criteria and their weights. Putting the focus of this paper on drivers and impacts, we assessed Latin American organizations that “sell” ecosystem services from tropical forests in terms of their general management, marketing, forest management, client and stakeholder satisfaction, and forest ecosystem status. We found that supplying organizations vary widely with respect to their achievements in these areas. However, the variance of assessment results is influenced even more by the variance in weights the international market actors allocate to the assessment criteria. The insights of this study can contribute to the continuous improvement of management processes in supplying organizations and can support investors and donors in their decision-making with respect to organization supplying ecosystem services.     

Lessons from JI and GIS for post-2012 carbon finance mechanisms in Russia and Ukraine

The main incentives for Russia's and Ukraine's participation in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol were its mechanisms. The opportunities that the anticipated post-2012 mechanisms will offer Russia and Ukraine are explored in light of the lessons from Joint Implementation (JI) and the Green Investment Scheme (GIS) during this first period. Four key factors that explain the success of these mechanisms are identified: the design of the mechanisms, the role of the private sector in their implementation, the coordination required, and the political will gained. Even though a weak rule of law, problems with policy implementation, and the ambiguous role of private-sector actors are not ‘make or break’ issues, they are likely to defer future mechanisms. Success and failure will, rather, hinge on the priority these factors are accorded by the top leadership. It is likely that simple mechanisms that only involve a few actors will be less complicated to set up and run than, for instance, emissions trading schemes (which require domestic burden sharing). Project-based options in which domestic actors have gained experience may be better suited. However, any lessons prior to the new mechanisms taking a clearer shape must be considered as preliminary.

Policy relevance

The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, despite their problems, provided Russia and Ukraine with their main incentives for participation in the Protocol's first commitment period. As the chances that these countries will participate in the second commitment period seem slim, the opportunities that the anticipated post-2012 mechanisms will offer Russia and Ukraine are explored in light of the lessons from JI and GIS. The key factors that have determined the success and failure of these mechanisms are likely to be of relevance to future mechanisms. It is argued that – of the post-2012 options available – simple mechanisms with few actors involved should be chosen. Project-based options rather than emissions trading schemes may be more likely to succeed due to experience gained by domestic actors.     

Climate change mitigation on tropical peatlands: A triple burden for smallholder farmers in Indonesia

The agricultural use and conversion of tropical peatlands is considered a major source of land-based greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, the protection and restoration of tropical peatlands has recently turned into an important strategy to mitigate global climate change. Little research exists that has investigated the impacts and dynamics that such climate mitigation efforts evoke in local communities living in and around peatlands. We present insights on this from Sumatra, Indonesia and use a climate justice lens to evaluate local outcomes. We show how an increasingly transnational network of state and non-state actors has become involved in developing new laws, policy programs and land-use agreements on Sumatra’s coastal peatlands, aiming at supposedly win–win low-carbon development pathways. We argue that such efforts are open to much of the same criticism that has been raised regarding previous policies and projects aimed at reducing GHGE from deforestation and forest degradation. These projects disregard local perspectives on development, fail to deliver the promised benefits and, through a reconfiguration of local land-use rights, reduce the capabilities of smallholder farmers to benefit from their land. In sum, our analysis suggests that recent policies and projects aimed at mitigating GHGE from tropical peatlands contribute to a redistribution of the global climate mitigation burden onto smallholder farmers in Indonesia. This occurs through their threefold assignment to protect forests, prevent fires and help restore degraded peatlands.     

Hierarchical livelihood outcomes among co-managed fisheries

Collaborative management arrangements are increasingly being used in fisheries, yet critical questions remain about the conditions under which these are most successful. Here, we conduct one of the first comprehensive tests of Elinor Ostrom's diagnostic framework for analyzing social–ecological systems to examine how 16 socioeconomic and institutional conditions are related the livelihood outcomes in 42 co-management arrangements in five countries across the Indo-Pacific. We combine recent developments in both theory and modeling to address three key challenges among comparative studies of social–ecological systems: the presence of a large number of explanatory mechanisms, variables operating at multiple scales, and the potential for interactions among socio-economic and institutional factors. We find that resource users were more likely to perceive benefits from co-management when they are more involved in decisions, were aware that humans are causal agents of change in marine systems, were wealthier, were not migrants, were in villages with smaller populations and older co-management arrangements, and had clearly established boundaries. Critically, we quantify a number of key interactions between: wealth, dependence on marine resources, involvement in decision-making, and population size that have strong implications for co-management success in terms of livelihood benefits. This study demonstrates that context plays a critical but identifiable role in co-management success.     

Piecemeal or combined? Assessing greenhouse gas mitigation spillovers in US forest and agriculture policy portfolios

ABSTRACT

Forest and agricultural sector response to comprehensive climate policy is well represented in the literature. Less analysis has been devoted to piecemeal solutions. We use the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to project the individual and combined effect of three existing U.S. Department of Agriculture programmes with potential to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We find that a combined policy scenario may achieve greater mitigation than individual constituent programmes, suggesting the possibility of complementary spillover effects in some periods. Mitigation varies over time, however, and some periods experience net emissions as markets and management practices respond to initial policy shocks. The regional distribution of GHG mitigation also varies between policy scenario. Differences in the magnitude and imputed cost of mitigation under each scenario, generating negative values for some programmes and time periods, reinforces the need to evaluate portfolio design to cost-effectively achieve near-term GHG mitigation.

Key policy insights

• Increased near-term GHG mitigation in the forest and agriculture sectors in the US may be possible by expanding or refocusing the emphasis of existing programmes.

• Implementing several such forest and agricultural programmes simultaneously may lead to greater GHG mitigation than when implemented separately, indicating the possibility of positive spillover effects.

• Programmes targeted to agricultural management may hold outsized potential to achieve near-term GHG mitigation; Policies aimed at influencing land use conversion appear to be more vulnerable to reversion and subject to larger inter-annual swings.

• The staged implementation of programmes could also be useful, helping to encourage increased mitigation (or the retention of already achieved mitigation) over time as markets re-equilibrate to initial shocks.

• Though the particular scenarios assessed here are unique to the US, our findings may be applicable to other locations outside the US where land management is influenced by individual market actors and there is competition between forest and agricultural land uses.