The geography of global urban greenhouse gas emissions: an exploratory analysis

The purpose of this paper is to describe global urban greenhouse gas emissions by region and sector, examine the distribution of emissions through the urban-to-rural gradient, and identify covariates of emission levels for our baseline year, 2000. We use multiple existing spatial databases to identify urban extent, greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, N₂O, CH₄ and SF₆) and covariates of emissions in a “top-down” analysis. The results indicate that urban activities are significant sources of total greenhouse gas emissions (36.8 and 48.6 % of total). The urban energy sector accounts for between 41.5 and 66.3 % of total energy emissions. Significant differences exist in the urban share of greenhouse gas emissions between developed and developing countries as well as among source sectors for geographic regions. The 50 largest urban emitting areas account for 38.8 % of all urban greenhouse gas emissions. We find that greenhouse gas emissions are significantly associated with population size, density, growth rates, and per capita income. Finally, comparison of our results to “bottom-up” estimates suggest that this research’s data and techniques are best used at the regional and global scales.     

Global and regional trends in greenhouse gas emissions from livestock

Following IPCC guidelines (IPCC 2006), we estimate greenhouse gas emissions related to livestock in 237 countries and 11 livestock categories during the period 1961–2010. We find that in 2010 emissions of methane and nitrous oxide related to livestock worldwide represented approximately 9 % of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Global GHG emissions from livestock increased by 51 % during the analyzed period, mostly due to strong growth of emissions in developing (Non-Annex I) countries (+117 %). In contrast, developed country (Annex I) emissions decreased (?23 %). Beef and dairy cattle are the largest source of livestock emissions (74 % of global livestock emissions). Since developed countries tend to have lower CO₂-equivalent GHG emissions per unit GDP and per quantity of product generated in the livestock sector, the amount of wealth generated per unit GHG emitted from the livestock sector can be increased by improving both livestock farming practices in developing countries and the overall state of economic development. Our results reveal important details of how livestock production and associated GHG emissions have occurred in time and space. Discrepancies with higher tiers, demonstrate the value of more detailed analyses, and discourage over interpretation of smaller-scale trends in the Tier 1 results, but do not undermine the value of global Tier 1 analysis.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from land use: creating incentives within greenhouse gas emissions trading systems

Terrestrial carbon sinks and sources were introduced into climate change mitigation related policy relatively late in the design of the architecture of those policies. Much literature addresses how terrestrial sources and sinks differ from emissions from fossil fuel combustion and, hence, is a possible justification for differential treatment of them in policy design. Late introduction in climate policy discussions and perceived differences appear to have resulted in very different policy approaches for sinks versus fossil emission sources. The attempt to differentiate has generated complexity in policy design and likely inefficiency in the operation of these policies. We review these issues and find that the characteristics claimed to apply to sinks apply as well to fossil sources, and differences that do exist are often more a matter of degree than of kind. Because cap-and-trade has gained momentum as the instrument of choice to control fossil emissions, we use as a starting point, how such a cap-and-trade system could be altered to include terrestrial carbon sinks and sources.     

The influence of political ideology on greenhouse gas emissions

This research tests the casual link from political ideology to national greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing multinational panel data covering 98 countries during the period 1990–2016. Overall, the baseline results and robustness tests show a political divide on national greenhouse gas emissions, whereby compared to right-wing governments, left-wing governments are more likely to exhibit less carbon dioxide emissions. We further explore this topic from the perspectives of energy efficiency and education. Three-stage OLS regressions suggest that leftist parties increase energy efficiency and spend more on secondary education, which lead to less greenhouse gas emissions. We also introduce the interaction between political ideology and economic performance as well as globalization to test the moderating effects of economic performance and globalization. The study further looks into the interaction effects of political ideology and democracies on greenhouse gas emissions by dividing the whole sample into two sub-samples. The results indicate that the ideology effect on greenhouse gas emissions varies among countries with different economic performances or different degrees of political globalization, as well as between democracies and non-democracies.     

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from cattle raising in Brazil

The study estimated, for the first time, the greenhouse gas emissions associated with cattle raising in Brazil, focusing on the period from 2003 to 2008 and the three principal sources: 1) portion of deforestation resulting in pasture establishment and subsequent burning of felled vegetation; 2) pasture burning; and 3) bovine enteric fermentation. Deforestation for pasture establishment was only considered for the Amazon and Cerrado. Emissions from pasture burning and enteric fermentation were accounted for the entire country. The consolidated emissions estimate lies between approximately 813 Mt CO₂eq in 2008 (smallest value) and approximately 1,090 Mt CO₂eq in 2003 (greatest value). The total emissions associated with Amazon cattle ranching ranged from 499 to 775 Mt CO₂eq, that of the Cerrado from 229 to 231 Mt CO₂eq, and that of the rest of the country between 84 and 87 Mt CO₂eq. The full set of emissions originating from cattle raising is responsible for approximately half of all Brazilian emissions (estimated to be approximately 1,055 Mt CO₂eq in 2005), even without considering cattle related sources not explicitly estimated in this study, such as energy use for transport and refrigeration along the beef and derivatives supply chain. The potential for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions offered by the Brazilian cattle industry is very high and might constitute Brazil’s most important opportunity for emissions mitigation. The study offers a series of policy recommendations for mitigation that can be implemented by public and private administrators at a low cost relative to other greenhouse gas reduction options.     

Linkage of greenhouse gas emissions trading systems: learning from experience

The last ten years have seen the growth of linkages between many of the world's cap-and-trade systems for GHGs, both directly between systems, and indirectly via connections to credit systems such as the Clean Development Mechanism. If nations have tried to act in their own self-interest, this proliferation of linkages implies that for many nations, the expected benefits of linkage outweighed expected costs. In this article, we draw on the past decade of experience with carbon markets to examine why systems have demonstrated this revealed preference for linking. Linkage is a multi-faceted policy decision that can be used by political jurisdictions to achieve a variety of objectives, and we find qualitative evidence that many economic, political, and strategic factors – ranging from geographic proximity to integrity of emissions reductions – influence the decision to link. We also identify some potentially important effects of linkage, such as loss of control over domestic carbon policies, which do not appear to have deterred real-world decisions to link.

Policy relevance

These findings have implications for the future role that decentralized linkages may play in international climate policy architecture. The Kyoto Protocol has entered what is probably its final commitment period, covering only a small fraction of global GHG emissions. Under the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, negotiators may now gravitate toward a hybrid system, combining top-down elements for establishing targets with bottom-up elements of pledge-and-review tied to national policies and actions. The incentives for linking these national policies are likely to continue to produce direct connections among regional, national, and sub-national cap-and-trade systems. The growing network of decentralized, direct linkages among these systems may turn out to be a key part of a future hybrid climate policy architecture.     

The effect of agricultural trade liberalisation on land-use related greenhouse gas emissions

This study explores the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation and concomitant changes in agricultural areas and livestock production on greenhouse gas emissions using the coupled LEITAP–IMAGE modelling system. The results indicate that liberalisation leads to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions by about 6% compared to the reference scenario value in 2015. The increase in CO₂ emissions are caused by vegetation clearance due to a rapid expansion of agricultural area; mainly in South America and Southeast Asia. Increased methane emissions in the case of full liberalisation are caused by less intensive cattle farming in regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. This pattern is observed up to 2050. Total global production of milk, dairy and beef do not change with full liberalisation, but production shifts were observed from North America and Europe to South America and Southeast Asia. Results are less pronounced in variants where trade liberalisation is only implemented partially. Remarkably, our study shows in the trade barrier removal scenario larger numbers of dairy cows in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) then with full liberalisation scenario or a variant in which only milk quota are abolished. This illustrates that different types of liberalisation need to be analysed regionally and per commodity before general conclusions on the impact of trade liberalisation can be drawn. Our study contributes new information on greenhouse gas emissions to a vast number of trade liberalisation studies that focus on economic impacts. The combined economic-environmental impacts need to be assessed in detail before general conclusions on trade liberalisation can be given.     

温室气体排放信息披露经验借鉴与政策建议

温室气体排放信息披露是确保实现温室气体排放总量控制目标和顺利开展碳交易、推动企业碳减排的重要前提和根本保障。研究表明,通过明确法律制度保障、完善信息披露路径、加强监管等措施,可以有效建立温室气体排放信息披露制度。建议在综合考虑国内碳市场信息披露、省级重点企业温室气体排放信息披露、环境信息披露等工作基础上,推动我国温室气体排放信息披露在法律基础、制度框架、重点要素等方面的顶层设计,并加强监管。     

Recent climatic change,greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

Summary In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions.India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data.Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively.According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population.About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy sources. In all cases, serious institulional barriers and resource limitations need to be addressed. The scope for carbon sequestration is limiled by land availabilily and other factors. It is argued that any response to global warming must be located firmly in the framework of sustainable development.With 5 Figures     

Liability rules for international trading of greenhouse gas emissions quotas

Abstract

To reduce the costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Kyoto protocol, international trades of emissions quotas are allowed. The revenue from the sale of quotas may exceed the sanctions for non-compliance if these penalties are weak or poorly enforced. Under these circumstances emissions trading enables a country to benefit financially through non-compliance. To counter non-compliance due to trading a range of liability proposals have been suggested. Using a simple global model, we analyze the economic and environmental performance of these proposals for the first commitment period. In addition, the proposals are tested for their sensitivity to national circumstances and to market power. We find that penalties are sufficient to deter non-compliance if they are high enough and are effectively enforced. If the non-compliance penalties are weak or poorly enforced, the permanent reserve proposal is best able to ensure compliance by sellers at a cost similar to the competitive market equilibrium. While not sufficient to ensure compliance on their own, eligibility requirements and annual retirement of AAUs equal to actual emissions contribute to compliance at little or no cost. Hence, such provisions could complement other liability proposals.     

Principles of monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks

Principles and substantiation of a system of monitoring anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks are considered. The basic task of the system is to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and possible climate effect. The major attention is paid to the system of indirect or “computational” monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A multifunctional information system is described in the context of its application for solving a number of other ecological problems. It can be used as an instrumental basis for estimating ecological efficiency of measures aimed at reducing emissions and increasing greenhouse gas uptake. The effect should be considered in totality for all greenhouse gases and most hazardous pollutants. Monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks includes observations (using modeling) of integral indicators of ecosystems and can be used as part of ecological monitoring (for example, dynamics of soil carbon balance of agroecosystems and forest cenoses). The connection of the monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks with the satellite monitoring enlarges the possible applications of this information system.     

Liability rules for international trading of greenhouse gas emissions quotas

To reduce the costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Kyoto protocol, international trades of emissions quotas are allowed. The revenue from the sale of quotas may exceed the sanctions for non-compliance if these penalties are weak or poorly enforced. Under these circumstances emissions trading enables a country to benefit financially through non-compliance. To counter non-compliance due to trading a range of liability proposals have been suggested. Using a simple global model, we analyze the economic and environmental performance of these proposals for the first commitment period. In addition, the proposals are tested for their sensitivity to national circumstances and to market power. We find that penalties are sufficient to deter non-compliance if they are high enough and are effectively enforced. If the non-compliance penalties are weak or poorly enforced, the permanent reserve proposal is best able to ensure compliance by sellers at a cost similar to the competitive market equilibrium. While not sufficient to ensure compliance on their own, eligibility requirements and annual retirement of AAUs equal to actual emissions contribute to compliance at little or no cost. Hence, such provisions could complement other liability proposals.     

Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development. Based on a presentation at the “IIASA-YSSP uncertainty seminars,” 22 July 2004, and the discussions thereafter.     

Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.     

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.