Shear Wave Velocity Estimates through Combined Use of Passive Techniques in a Tectonically Active Area

We made an attempt to assess the shear wave velocity values V _S and, to a lesser extent, the V _P values from ambient noise recordings in an array configuration. Five array sites were situated in the close proximity to borehole sites. Shear wave velocity profiles were modeled at these five array sites with the aid of two computational techniques, viz. spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and H/V ellipticity. Out of these five array sites, velocity estimates could be reliably inferred at three locations. The shear wave velocities estimated by these methods are found to be quite consistent with each other. The computed V _S values up to 30 m depth are in the range from 275 to 375 m/s in most of the sites, which implies prevalence of a low velocity zone at some pocket areas. The results were corroborated by evidence of site geology as well as geotechnical information.     

Creepex of Kamchatka shallow earthquakes

Results of investigation of the lithosphere in the Kamchatka seismic focal zone from dynamic characteristics of earthquake records obtained at regional stations are presented. It is assumed that the specificity of the source zone can be estimated by the relation Cr = K _P ? bK _S ? c characterizing relative energies (energy classes, according to [Fedotov, 1972]) of short period transverse and longitudinal waves in the source. Azimuthal, spatial, and temporal variations in Cr and their relation to focal mechanisms are examined. Spatiotemporal variations in this parameter are shown to be caused by the influence of variations in the conditions in the source zone (its substance or process) on the radiation of P and S waves.     

Crustal Structure Along Sunda-Banda Arc Transition Zone from Teleseismic Receiver Functions

We analyzed receiver function of teleseismic events recorded at twelve Indonesian-GEOFON (IA-GE) broadband stations using nonlinear Neighbourhood Algorithm (NA) inversion and H-k stacking methods to estimate crustal thickness, V _p /V _s ratios and S-wave velocity structure along Sunda-Banda arc transition zone. We observed crustal thickness of 34–37 km in Timor Island, which is consistent with the previous works. The thick crust (> 30 km) is also found beneath Sumba and Flores Islands, which might be related to the arc-continent collision causing the thickened crust. In Timor and Sumba Islands, we observed high V _p /V _s ratio (> 1.84) with low velocity zone that might be associated with the presence of mafic and ultramafic materials and fluid filled fracture zone. The high V _p /V _s ratio observed at Sumbawa and Flores volcanic Islands might be an indication of partial melt related to the upwelling of hot asthenosphere material through the subducted slab.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

Geodynamic and Seismotectonic Activity in Eastern Tibet in the 21st Century

At the beginning of the 21st century, a series of great earthquakes were recorded in northeastern Tibet, along the periphery of the Bayan Hara lithospheric block. An earthquake with M_S = 8.1 occurred within the East Kunlun fault zone in the Kunlun Mountains, which caused an extended surface rupture with left-lateral strike slip. An earthquake with M_S = 8 occurred in Wenchuan (China) on May 12, 2008, giving rise to an extended overthrust along the Lunmanshan fault zone. An earthquake with M_S = 7.1 occurred in Yushu (China) on April 14, 2010; its epicenter was on the Grazze–Yushu–Funchuoshan fault; a left-lateral strikeslip offset was observed on the surface. An earthquake with M_S = 7 occurred in the vicinity of Lushan on April 20, 2013; its epicenter was within the Lunmanshan fault zone, 103 km southwest of the zone of the catastrophic Wenchuan earthquake. An earthquake with M_S = 8.2 occurred in Nepal on April 25, 2015. Based on the CSN seismic catalog, the energy of all earthquakes in eastern Tibet at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries was estimated. It was found that Tibet was seismically quiet from 1980 to 2000. The beginning of the 21st century has been marked by seismic activation with earthquake sources migrating southward to surround the Bayan Hara lithospheric block from every quarter. Therefore, this block can be regarded as one of the most seismically active regions of China.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Determination of source parameters of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and Japan from aftershock sequences

Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M _S ) and seismic moment (M _W ) magnitudes are calculated.     

Shear wave velocity-based evaluation and design of stone column improved ground for liquefaction mitigation

The evaluation and design of stone column improvement ground for liquefaction mitigation is a challenging issue for the state of practice. In this paper, a shear wave velocity-based approach is proposed based on the well-defined correlations of liquefaction resistance (CRR)-shear wave velocity (V _s)-void ratio (e) of sandy soils, and the values of parameters in this approach are recommended for preliminary design purpose when site specific values are not available. The detailed procedures of pre- and post-improvement liquefaction evaluations and stone column design are given. According to this approach, the required level of ground improvement will be met once the target V _s of soil is raised high enough (i.e., no less than the critical velocity) to resist the given earthquake loading according to the CRR-V _s relationship, and then this requirement is transferred to the control of target void ratio (i.e., the critical e) according to the V _s-e relationship. As this approach relies on the densification of the surrounding soil instead of the whole improved ground and is conservative by nature, specific considerations of the densification mechanism and effect are given, and the effects of drainage and reinforcement of stone columns are also discussed. A case study of a thermal power plant in Indonesia is introduced, where the effectiveness of stone column improved ground was evaluated by the proposed V _s-based method and compared with the SPT-based evaluation. This improved ground performed well and experienced no liquefaction during subsequent strong earthquakes.     

The Tolud Burst of Seismicity and the Earthquake of November 30, 2012 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>C</Subscript> = 5.4, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.8) that Accompanied the Start of the 2012‒2013 Tolbachik Eruption

This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with K_S = 11.3, M_L = 4.9, M_C = 5.4, and M_W = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (M_L = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.     

Features of the Atmospheric Temperature Variations Prior to Strong Earthquakes in Kamchatka and Their Relation to the Fluxes of Outgoing Infrared Radiation

The temperature variations of the near-surface atmosphere in Kamchatka at Paratunka observatory and fluxes of outgoing infrared radiation prior to strong Kuril earthquakes (November 15, 2006, M = 8.3; January 13, 2007, M = 8.1) have been analyzed. It is shown that the radiation fluxes at ground level, as measured on satellites above the epicenter of earthquakes and above a remote observatory, coincide with each other, both in magnitude and in the feature of their time variations. The temperature measured directly at the observatory and the temperature at surface level estimated from satellite observations differ in magnitude, but they coincide in the feature of their time variations. The detected temperature increase (despite the negative regular trend at this time of year) is caused by the appearance of an additional heat source entering in the nearsurface atmosphere. This result, together with the studies of variations of various geophysical data before strong earthquakes performed earlier in Kamchatka, led to the conclusion that the additional heat source is in the Earth’s crust.     

Spectra of atmospheric waves in the dynamo region of the ionosphere at Kamchatka

A spectral analysis of the diurnal variations in the geomagnetic field horizontal component, observed at Kamchatka and Barrow polar observatory in September–October 1999, has been performed. The complete set of oscillations of thermal tidal atmospheric waves with T = 24, 12, 8, and 4 h has been detected in the variation spectral power (Sq) at Kamchatka, and only the fundamental harmonic with T = 24 h has been distinguished at Barrow. The above periods vary in both directions relative to stable maximums during strong geomagnetic disturbances. The relative spectral intensity at subharmonics also vary toward the fundamental harmonic with a period of 24 h. In the frequency band 0.5–3 h (IGW periods), the maximal intensity in the background spectra is observed at T ～ 2 h and increases by an order of magnitude with increasing geomagnetic activity at both Kamchatka and Barrow. A day before earthquakes, the intensity of this maximum is below the rms background values, and the spectra widen toward the region of periods shorter than 2 h. A similar effect was previously observed in the power spectra of the diurnal variations in the quasistatic electric field and VLF noise, simultaneously measured in September–October 1999.     

Experience in registration of variations caused by strong earthquakes in the level and physicochemical parameters of ground waters in the piezometric wells: the case of Kamchatka

The hardware complex that was produced by OOO Polynom, Khabarovsk, for registration of the level, temperature, and electrical conductivity of ground water in wells and meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, air temperature) at a measurement frequency from 5 min to 1 h is described. The equipment is installed in the wells of Kamchatka and has been used for several years to register variations caused by earthquakes in the parameters of ground waters. Different variations in measured parameters of ground waters due to strong earthquakes of February 28, 2013, M _W = 6.8 and May 24, 2013, M _W = 8.3 are registered with this equipment in wells YuZ-5 and E-1. The registered variations and their systematization are described taking into account the mechanisms of a seismic impact on the state of the well–water-saturated rock system.     

Effects of strong earthquakes in variations of electrical and meteorological parameters of the near-surface atmosphere in Kamchatka region

The diurnal variations in electrical (quasistatic electric field and electrical conductivity) and meteorological (temperature, pressure, relative humidity of the atmosphere, and wind speed) parameters, measured simultaneously before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka region (November 15, 2006, М = 8.3; January 13, 2007, М = 8.1; January 30, 2016, М = 7.2), are studied for the first time in detail. It is found that a successively anomalous increase in temperature, despite the negative regular trend in these winter months, was observed in the period of six–seven days before the occurrences of earthquakes. An anomalous temperature increase led to the formation of “winter thunderstorm” conditions in the near-surface atmosphere of Kamchatka region, which was manifested in the appearance of an anomalous, type 2 electrical signal, the amplification of and intensive variations in electrical conductivity, heavy precipitation (snow showers), high relative humidity of air, storm winds, and pressure changes. With the weak flow of natural heat radiation in this season, the observed dynamics of electric and meteorological processes can likely be explained by the appearance of an additional heat source of seismic nature.     

Temporary seismological observations in the area of the 2012–2013 Tolbachik Fissure Eruption: Results

The seismicity that accompanied the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption was recorded by additional seismic stations that were installed in the southern Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster area in January to October 2013. We used broadband (0.033–50 Hz) three-component digital Guralp CMG-6TD seismometers. This temporary network provided seismicity data at a lower energy level than can be done using the regional seismograph network of Kamchatka. The processing of the resulting digital records supplied data for compiling a catalog of over 700 M _L = 0–3.5 (K _S = 1.5–8.5) earthquakes, which is an order of magnitude greater than the number of events located by the regional network for the same period of time. The seismicity in the area of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano was found to concentrate mostly in spatially isolated areas during the eruption. The main isolated clusters of earthquakes were identified both in the eruption area itself and along the periphery of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano, in the area of the Zimina volcanic massif, and in the Tolud epicenter zone; the eruption zone was not dominant in the seismicity. The region of a shallow seismicity increase beneath Ploskii Tolbachik before the eruption was not found to exhibit any increased activity during the time the temporary seismograph network was operated, which means that a seismicity inversion took place at the beginning of the eruption. We discuss the question of what the earthquake-generating features are that we have identified.     

Some Probabilistic and Statistical Properties of the Seismic Regime of Zemmouri (Algeria) Seismoactive Zone

Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter K_sr, Hurst exponents H_r and H_t. The values of D, γ, K_sr, H_r, and H_t diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.     

Spatial relation between the tidal component of seismic noise and development zones of strong earthquakes (from long-term regular observations on the Kamchatka Peninsula)

The results of long-term studies of seismic noise before strong regional earthquakes on the Kamchatka Peninsula in 1992–2006 are presented. These results show that parameters of seismic noise variations caused by the tidal effect depend on the source position of the forthcoming earthquake. The reproducibility of the observed effects is demonstrated by the example of two strong deep (～200 km) subduction earthquakes with similar parameters that occurred on June 16, 2003 (M = 6.9), and on June 10, 2004 (M = 6.8). The physical mechanism of the synchronization of the tidal component extracted from high-frequency seismic noise with the wave of the gravitational tidal potential can be related to the possible development of near-surface dilatancy zones.     

Prestack migration velocity analysis based on simplified two-parameter moveout equation

Stacking velocity V _C2, vertical velocity ratio γ ₀, effective velocity ratio γ _eff, and anisotropic parameter χ _eff are correlated in the PS-converted-wave (PS-wave) anisotropic prestack Kirchhoff time migration (PKTM) velocity model and are thus difficult to independently determine. We extended the simplified two-parameter (stacking velocity V _C2 and anisotropic parameter k _eff) moveout equation from stacking velocity analysis to PKTM velocity model updating and formed a new four-parameter (stacking velocity V _C2, vertical velocity ratio γ ₀, effective velocity ratio γ _eff, and anisotropic parameter k _eff) PS-wave anisotropic PKTM velocity model updating and process flow based on the simplified two-parameter moveout equation. In the proposed method, first, the PS-wave two-parameter stacking velocity is analyzed to obtain the anisotropic PKTM initial velocity and anisotropic parameters; then, the velocity and anisotropic parameters are corrected by analyzing the residual moveout on common imaging point gathers after prestack time migration. The vertical velocity ratio γ ₀ of the prestack time migration velocity model is obtained with an appropriate method utilizing the P- and PS-wave stacked sections after level calibration. The initial effective velocity ratio γ _eff is calculated using the Thomsen (1999) equation in combination with the P-wave velocity analysis; ultimately, the final velocity model of the effective velocity ratio γ _eff is obtained by percentage scanning migration. This method simplifies the PS-wave parameter estimation in high-quality imaging, reduces the uncertainty of multiparameter estimations, and obtains good imaging results in practice.     

Investigation on regional attenuation of Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes

This paper aims at investigating possible regional attenuation patterns in the case of Vrancea(Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes.Almost 500 pairs of horizontal components recorded during 13 intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are employed in order to evaluate the regional attenuation patterns.The recordings are grouped according to the azimuth with regard to the Vrancea seismic source and subsequently,Q models are computed for each azimuthal zone assuming similar geometrical spreading.Moreover,the local soil amplification which was disregarded in a previous analysis performed for Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes is now clearly evaluated.The results show minor differences between the four regions situated in front of the Carpathian Mountains and considerable differences in attenuation of seismic waves between the forearc and backarc regions(with regard to the Carpathian Mountains).Consequently,an average Q model of the type Q(f) = 115×f~(1.25) is obtained for the four forearc regions,while a separate Q model of the type Q(f) = 70×f~(0.90) is computed for the backarc region.These results highlight the need to evaluate the seismic hazard of Romania by using ground motion models which take into account the different attenuation between the forearc/backarc regions.     

Detailed Study of Time Variations in the Gutenberg–Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value Based on Highly Accurate Seismic Observations at the Garm Prognostic Site,Tajikistan

The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log₁₀E^2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log₁₀E^2/3, and log₁₀N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log₁₀E^2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log₁₀N_i and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log₁₀N_i time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mc_i) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔM_i) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log₁₀N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.