中国中部六省预期寿命时序加密估算研究

年龄组死亡率是利用年龄分组人口数据计算预期寿命的关键参数,而非采样年份的统计年鉴中年龄分组死亡率缺失导致无法计算预期寿命。针对该问题,本文将人口普查数据与统计年鉴数据融合,首次提出一种基于拉格朗日插值的中国省级预期寿命时间序列加强密集度（时序加密）的算法,以解决非采样（即未进行人口普查或1%人口抽样调查）年份省级预期寿命的估算问题。以中国中部六省为例,在所选取年份省级预期寿命估算实验中,绝对精度表明年龄分组人口比例线性插值计算的精度明显高于人口比例抛物线插值和直接插值算法的精度,故为推荐算法。本研究为高时间分辨率下省级预期寿命值的获取提供了一个新的可行思路,为分省较精确地进行预期寿命趋势分析奠定基础。     

中国人口老龄化格局演变与形成机制

人口老龄化的度量包括数量（老年人口数量和占比）和质量（人口预期寿命）两个方面。基于第六次人口普查和历年统计年鉴数据,综合运用空间自相关、Sullivan健康预期寿命测度模型、地理加权回归等方法,刻画了1990-2016年中国人口老龄化“数量”与“质量”的空间格局及其变化特征,并对其作用机制进行深入探讨。结果表明：① 总体上,人口老龄化“数量”与“质量”的发展并不协调,存在空间差异性。② 从“数量”上,“胡焕庸线”东南半壁老龄化程度高于西北半壁,但增速变化存在阶段性特征。老龄化水平存在高值和低值集聚区。高值集聚区由沿海向内陆扩展,位于西北地区的老龄化低值集聚区则逐渐萎缩。③ 从“质量”上看,“胡焕庸线”东南半壁人口预期寿命优于西北半壁,东部沿海省市远高于其他地区。④ 老年人口预期寿命与健康预期寿命发展并不同步,存在性别差异与区域功能缺损扩张效应。相比中西部,东部地区预期寿命与健康预期寿命均占优势。⑤ 从形成机制来看,“数量”格局的形成受人口自然变动与机械变动共同作用,其中,出生率为主导因素;对于“质量”而言,自然环境差异、社会环境发展不协调等是影响预期寿命的重要因素,其中经济发展与卫生医疗事业进步是寿命延长的主要推动力。     

中国环境-健康区域综合评价

The aim of the study was to assess the environment-health development in different regions of China. 175 indicators, such as average life expectancy at birth, emission intensity of waste gas, GDP etc. were chosen to describe various aspects of the environment, health and development of China. Of all the indicators, life expectancy can sufficiently reflect health situation of population. Consequently,life expectancy was identified as key indicator, and 42 out of 175 indicators were selected for establishing the environment-health indicator fiamework with three grades of integrative indices to assess the development of environment-health of China. Based on the hierarchical relation between various grades of indices, the comprehensive environment-health index was calculated and contributed to classify the environment-health situation of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China which were divided into five grades by four predefmed limits. Comprehensive assessment indicates that the environment-health situation of the eastern and coastal areas is superior to that of inland which is the western regions with underdeveloped economy and rigorous natural condition.Especially, the Qinghai-Tibet and Yunnan-Guizhou plateaus in southwestern China are most vulnerable in the environment and population health. These fit in with the pattern of national socio-economic development, which fully shows that socio-economic context plays a dominant role in the improvement of environment-health in China.     

Regional comprehensive assessment on environment-health of China

The aim of the study was to assess the environment-health development in different regions of China. 175 indicators, such as average life expectancy at birth, emission intensity of waste gas, GDP etc. were chosen to describe various aspects of the environment, health and development of China. Of all the indicators, life expectancy can sufficiently reflect health situation of population. Consequently,life expectancy was identified as key indicator, and 42 out of 175 indicators were selected for establishing the environment-health indicator framework with three grades of integrative indices to assess the development of environment-health of China. Based on the hierarchical relation between various grades of indices, the comprehensive environment-health index was calculated and contributed to classify the environment-health situation of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China which were divided into five grades by four predefined limits. Comprehensive assessment indicates that the environment-health situation of the eastern and coastal areas is superior to that of inland which is the western regions with underdeveloped economy and rigorous natural condition.Especially, the Qinghai-Tibet and Yunnan-Guizhou plateaus in southwestern China are most vulnerable in the environment and population health. These fit in with the pattern of national socio-economic development, which fully shows that socio-economic context plays a dominant role in the improvement of envirnment-health in China     

Regional comprehensive assessment on environment-health of China

The aim of the study was to assess the environment-health development in different regions of China. 175 indicators, such as average life expectancy at birth, emission intensity of waste gas, GDP etc. were chosen to describe various aspects of the environment, health and development of China. Of all the indicators, life expectancy can sufficiently reflect health situation of population. Consequently, life expectancy was identified as key indicator, and 42 out of 175 indicators were selected for establishing the environment-health indicator framework with three grades of integrative indices to assess the development of environment-health of China. Based on the hierarchical relation between various grades of indices, the comprehensive environment-health index was calculated and contributed to classify the environment-health situation of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China which were divided into five grades by four predefined limits. Comprehensive assessment indicates that the environment-health situation of the eastern and coastal areas is superior to that of inland which is the western regions with underdeveloped economy and rigorous natural condition. Especially, the Qinghai-Tibet and Yunnan-Guizhou plateaus in southwestern China are most vulnerable in the environment and population health. These fit in with the pattern of national socio-economic development, which fully shows that socio-economic context plays a dominant role in the improvement of environment-health in China.     

毛乌素沙地天然臭柏种群生命表分析

为了探讨毛乌素沙地天然臭柏种群动态,在图克臭柏保护区内,进行了样方调查,用WinDENDROTM年轮分析系统测定臭柏树盘的年龄。调查数据经均滑技术处理后,以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础,编制臭柏种群特定时间生命表,分析臭柏的死亡率、消失率、平均生命期望、存活曲线及生存函数曲线。结果表明：臭柏种群有两个死亡高峰期,第一个高峰期为Ⅰ龄级,属幼龄期,死亡率达94%;第二个高峰期从Ⅵ龄级开始,死亡率在27%～47%之间。臭柏种群的消失率与死亡率的变化趋势基本一致。平均生命期望在Ⅰ龄级时为0.82 a,Ⅱ龄级达到最大,为4.67 a, 说明这个时期臭柏的生命活动最旺盛,之后开始逐渐下降,最后降低为零。经指数函数方程Nx=Noe-bx和幂函数方程Nx=Nox-b对臭柏种群存活曲线做相关性检验,结果表明,其存活曲线更趋近于DeeveyⅢ型,种群的生长趋势属增长种群,即臭柏种群幼龄期死亡率高,之后的死亡率降低,而且在一定的水平下趋于稳定。臭柏种群的生存率单调下降,积累死亡率单调上升。死亡密度函数曲线的凸点与平均生命期望曲线的凹点相对应,二者呈互补形式。危险率与死亡率的变化趋势相吻合。说明引入生命表中的4个生存函数能较好地显示种群的动态变化,生存分析理论和生命表相结合能更好、更真实地反映种群的生存状况。     

Infant mortality and life expectancy in the Arab world

This exercise illustrates the concept of spatial correlation, the categorizing of data for mapping, and the use of the scatter diagram. It employs the variables of infant mortality and life expectancy as applied to the Arab World, though any region can be used. The factor of oil exports is added to enhance discussion of the findings. An extra advantage of the exercise is the learning of names of countries in a relatively painless way. The exercise teaches both content and methods of interpretation, and it is adaptable to high school and college levels.     

基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制

利用2000年和2010年分县人口普查数据,分析中国县域人口老龄化的空间格局及变化,采用结构方程模型拟合人口老龄化影响因子之间的路径关系,探讨中国县域人口老龄化的影响机制。结果表明:内蒙古包头至云南腾冲是中国县域人口老龄化较为清晰的空间分界线,其东南部老龄化高值县区连片集中,低值县区夹杂其间;西北全域老龄化率普遍较低,仅在北缘横亘一条中值县区连绵带。结构方程模型的拟合结果很好地解释了中国县域人口老龄化空间差异的影响机制。迁移率、预期寿命和生育率是人口老龄化进程的内生因素,其中,预期寿命对县域人口老龄化有正向效应,迁移率和生育率则对县域人口老龄化有负向效应。社会经济、家庭状况和自然环境等因素是人口老龄化进程的外生因素,对中国县域人口老龄化有显著的直接和间接效应。收入增加、社会发展、居住条件改善以及环境舒适性提高等推高县域人口老龄化水平,城镇化水平提高则降低县域人口老龄化水平。     

Development features of regional population aging in Finland

"Population ageing has emerged as one of the crucial problems facing developed countries. In Finland, the old population (aged 65 and over) has doubled in numbers over the past 30 years. The phenomena underlying this ageing trend include a decline in fertility, increase of the average life expectancy, and the effects of migration. Considerable regional differences in population ageing can be observed between Finland's provinces, municipalities and between their different parts. The number of the elderly is projected to increase in all provinces, the highest relative increase taking place in the provinces of Lapland, Uusimaa and Oulu between 1990-2020." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Resourcing Future Generations: A Contribution by the Earth Science Community

The last 50 years saw a dramatic increase in living standards and improvement in the quality of life for many of the world’s poorest. Mortality rates fell, life expectancy rose and per capita incomes swelled. That improvement has been underpinned by technological development and the ubiquitous use of metal and mineral resources. To maintain such progress while addressing climate change and a rising world population, sustainable sources of raw materials will be required, in both developed and developing countries. Delivering the UN Agenda 2030 with its seventeen Sustainable Development Goals and implementing the Paris Agreement of December 2015 will require technologies that consume both traditional and new minerals. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future. Of the 200 or so countries in the world, 60 are open to large-scale mining but 140 are not. New resource governance linkages are needed between existing institutional frameworks so that continuity of global mineral supply is assured over coming decades. Such arrangements would oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, directions of mineral exploration and sustainability of mining and ore processing, raising of consumer awareness and sharing the wealth generated by mining more fairly.     

On the Components of Indigenous Population Change

The 2001 census count of Indigenous Australians produced an intercensal change in numbers that cannot be explained by demographic processes alone. Using census and vital registration data, this paper unravels the components of such change and provides new insight into Indigenous population dynamics. In particular, it establishes the first estimates of proximate determinants of fertility, and extends mortality analysis by examining the components of low Indigenous life expectancy. Results show that demographic factors account for only 69 per cent of population change. Of these components, national Indigenous fertility is found to be below replacement level, while lack of convergence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous mortality remains. As Indigenous socio-economic circumstances are spatially diverse, the paper also explores the geography of demographic processes using data for 36 ATSIC regions and capital city/balance of State classifications. This reveals continued high fertility across parts of north Australia and an indication that mortality levels are associated with degree of urban residence.     

Environmentally efficient well-being: Is there a Kuznets curve?

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) posits an inverted “U” shaped relationship between the affluence of a nation and the stress it places on the biophysical environment, with increases in affluence from low to moderate levels producing increased environmental stress but further increases eventually leading to a tipping point after which further affluence reduces environmental stress. We hypothesized that the same pattern might obtain for the relationship between affluence and the efficiency with which a nation produces human well-being compared to the stress it places on the environment. The environmental intensity of human well-being (EIWB) was represented as the ratio of a nation’s per capita ecological footprint to its average life expectancy at birth. Using panel data on 58 nations, we find that, on average, the relationship between gross domestic product per capita and EIWB is a U shape, the inverse of the Kuznets curve.     

Geography and gender

Most people in Britain today work in jobs dominated very markedly by either women or men. Sex-typing occurs in many other activities. For example, child care and domestic work, whether paid or unpaid, are generally considered to be tasks for women. However, with the exception of domestic work and child care, the allocation of activities to women or men varies between societies. For example, in much of sub-Saharan Africa, women work in fields, growing basic subsistence crops for their families, whereas in much of Latin America, women's agricultural work is confined to tending animals and food processing. Inequality arises because the role of women is generally associated with inferior status, socially, politically and/or economically. When mapping the geography of gender, an example shows that female life expectancy at birth is highest in the developed countries and lowest in the poorest countries of the Third World. Regarding the relationship between gender divisions and various aspects of spatial organization within societies most attention has focused on differences in ethnic group, social class, and stage in the life cycle. In mid-19th century Britain large-scale factory production precipitated a spatial separation between home and work and created the possibility of separate spheres of life for women and men. A particular social form, namely a nuclear family with a dependent wife, can operate as a factor contributing to changes in the spatial organization of urban areas in the form of suburban growth. After decades of outward movement by affluent social groups, a return to small pockets within inner-urban areas is now evident. This process is known as gentrification. An additional factor of significance in connection with gentrification is the increasing success of middle-class women in obtaining well-paid career jobs.     

A geographical approach to some demographic features of the Moslem countries

This paper considers some demographic aspects of the world's Moslem population. Main sources of information are evaluated, and a definition is laid down for a Moslem country. Proportions of Moslem population are given for some 20 Asiatic and 30 African countries. Geographical distribution of Moslem countries as well as of the total world population are studied in some detail with due attention being devoted to Moslem minorities in non-Moslem countries such as China and the USSR. Population density, annual growth rate, life expectancy, age and language distributions are among the demographic features discussed comparatively at country and continent levels. Special attention is given to urbanization in the Moslem world. Finally future trends are discussed by using the usual statistical methods. It is thus established that by the year 2000 the proportion of world's Moslem population will rise to 22.4% as compared with 18.3% in 1975 and that the pressure on natural resources of the Moslem countries will be more than twice that in 1975 which is an alarming fact. It is hoped that the study will assist Moslem leaders in adopting sound population policies in their respectivie countries.     

中国边界县区人口老龄化的时空格局及其影响因素研究

受功能文化区理论和距离衰减定律的影响,中国边界县区凸显出明显的特性,这种“边界效应”深刻影响到老龄化进程。利用2000、2010年分县人口普查数据,统计分析边界县区人口老龄化时空格局,通过空间分析方法和路径分析模型,剖析中国边界县区老龄化进程的影响机理。研究表明：①2000—2010年中国边界县区老龄化率虽低于全国平均水平但增速明显,且集中分布的趋势在相对减弱,空间差异增大,总体上呈现出东南-西北方向较为明显的分异;②热点县区集聚带基本分布于中国东南部,冷点县区集聚带基本分布于中国西北部,且热点县区显示出由东向西扩展、由北向南转移的趋势;③中国边界县区老龄化的直接影响因子为预期寿命、生育率和迁移率。其中预期寿命和生育率对边界县区老龄化有正向效应,迁移率则对边界县区老龄化产生负向效应;且预期寿命影响强度最大,迁移率次之,生育率影响强度最弱;④经济因素、社会因素、家庭因素和自然因素作为外生变量,分别对边界县区老龄化率产生直接和间接的影响。其中正向因子按总效应值依次为人均教育水平、家庭结构、居住条件、人居环境指数、人均GDP和城镇化率,对老龄化率产生促进作用。     

老龄化社会中的地方和非正式照护①——地理老年学最新研究进展

发达国家政策制定者和执行者正面临着一个重要问题,即如何照护身体衰弱的老年群体,以应对人均寿命延长给社会经济与福利带来的影响。当然寿命延长本身是人类取得的一个巨大成功。然而,预期寿命的增加也引发了老年人口尤其是高龄老人数量的增长,这些高龄老人面临疾病高发和工具性日常生活活动能力(Instrumental Activities of Daily Life, IADLs)下降的情况,而这种能力对保持他们晚年生活的独立和尊严非常重要。与此同时,政策和实践的重心已经从机构养老转为“就地养老”,即支持老年人尽可能长时间地住在自己家里。从概念上讲,这意味着之前由机构提供的服务和照护(care)将改为由家庭来提供,这样脆弱的老年人也可以得到来自家人、朋友和邻居的非正式照护。一方面,这意味着许多老年人能够享受到由家庭照护所带来的亲密感、安全感和情感支持;另一方面,家庭结构的变化,社区的衰落,以及经济紧缩时期保障和福利的大幅削减,造成越来越多的老年人要面对孤独、孤立及风险。于是,老年人的照护者、照护地点和照护方式,及老年人对这些因素的差异化体验,将成为对健康和老龄化研究感兴趣的地理学家越来越关心的问题。本文回顾了地理老年学对非正式照护和家庭研究的最新进展,指出该领域的工作对老年人口照护的多学科探讨具有重要贡献。     

Assessing and mapping human well-being for sustainable development amid flood hazards: Poyang Lake Region of China

Less developed places that are affected by climatic impacts face great challenges to future development. Place-based assessments that look at both the development level and climatic impacts on development are important for understanding the current state of human well-being and generating insights into how to facilitate sustainable development in the future. We carry out an assessment of human well-being in the Poyang Lake Region of China (PLR), using GIS, remote sensing, and socio-economic data. We measure human well-being in three aspects of (i) development level, (ii) exposure of development to flooding, and (iii) sensitivity of development to flooding. Following the United Nations Development Programme's human development index, we examine development through measures of life expectancy, literacy, and income. We first use a digital elevation model and GIS data on levees to map flood hazard in PLR. Based on the flood hazard map, we then derive quantitative measures of exposure and sensitivity of the development in a town to flooding. Our assessment indicates that development in PLR overall is highly exposed and sensitive to flooding. There are significant variations in different aspects of human well-being among the 298 towns in the region. These variations suggest different sustainable development pathways and policy interventions for different places. We discuss the potential usefulness of our approach for other similar places.     

新疆和田河流域柽柳沙堆的生物地貌发育过程

柽柳沙堆是我国干旱区分布最为广泛的灌丛沙堆类型之一。在实地考察新疆和田河流 域柽柳生态地理特征、测量223 个柽柳沙堆形态, 并在两个野外观测点上实测4 个沙堆的风沙流剖面, 结合室内风洞实验段风速8 m/s 条件下模拟沙堆风流场结构等综合分析方法, 本文探讨了柽柳沙堆的生物地貌学特征及其发育过程。结果表明: 研究区柽柳的生态类型属于以胡杨林与灌木林下土壤为基础的吐加依土生境类型, 这个生境类型可以进一步划分为三个亚生境, 这些亚生境反映了柽柳沙堆不同发育阶段的生态环境特征。由于柽柳灌丛的寿命长、木质化枝干的刚性较强、根株萌发力强耐风蚀沙埋, 可对地面风沙流运行产生强烈扰动, 其风速剖面有别于芦苇沙堆和骆驼刺沙堆, 风流场结构有利于聚集风沙, 因此风沙依托柽柳灌丛堆积发育而成的柽柳沙堆平均坡度较大、沙堆存活与发育的周期也较长     

Oil resources for the next century: What's ahead?

Proven reserves of liquid hydrocarbons are now assessed at between 950 and 1,000 billion barrels, depending on the source. Their life expectancy at the current rate of world production is about 41 to 45 years. This lifetime is much longer than what was predicted in both 1970 and 1980. However, this wealth of resources does not necessarily mean that the security of oil supplies is guaranteed for all countries. Oil reserves are unequally distributed from a geopolitical standpoint. Reserves and output are mainly due to big fields (with more than 500 million barrels of initial reserves).Though oil supplies seem to be ensured for the coming 30 to 40 years, what does the picture look like beyond 2020–20307 The increased lifetime of proven oil reserves has been apparent only in the last 10 to 20 years. The considerable increase in proven oil reserves reported after 1986 is, in fact, mainly due to revisions and extensions, rather than to new sources of oil: conventional oil (with the price per barrel of oil on the order of $20 and recovery rate around 30 percent) remaining to be discovered today; oil resources stemming from an improvement in recovery rate; oil resources resulting from exploitation of new zones, such as deep sea zones; and unconventional types of oil, such as extra-heavy crudes, tar sands, shale oils, and liquid hydrocarbons from chemical-enhanced oil recovery methods.