Paleoclimatic estimates from water and energy budgets of East African Lakes

The Turkana, Nakuru-Elmenteita, and Naivasha basins in the Rift Valley of East Africa experienced high water levels during the period of 10,000–7000 yr B.P. Analyses of the modern hydrologic and energy budgets for these basins, along with that of Lake Victoria, were used to infer the amount of precipitation that would have been required to maintain the enlarged paleolakes of the early Holocene. Precipitation must have been at least 150–300 mm/yr (15 to 35%) above the modern average. The precipitation estimates were fairly consistent among the various basins, but no quantitative estimate was made for the additional precipitation required to account for overflow from the Rift Valley lake basins. Discharge from the Lake Victoria basin around 1880 A.D. was considerably above the more recent average, and the increased discharge into the White Nile for that period might have been similar to that of the early Holocene. A sensitivity analysis showed that temperature changes were probably not too important for changing the hydrologic-energy budget; changes of albedo, Bowen ratio, and cloudiness were likely to have been of greater importance.     

A Holocene pollen and diatom record from Vanderlin Island, Gulf of Carpentaria, lowland tropical Australia

Sedimentary, palynological and diatom data from a dunefield lake deposit in the interior of Vanderlin Island in the Gulf of Carpentaria are presented. Prior to the formation of present perennial lake conditions, the intensified Australian monsoon associated with the early Holocene marine transgression allowed Cyperaceae sedges to colonise the alluvial margins of an expansive salt flat surrounded by an open Eucalyptus woodland. As sea level stabilised between 7500 and 4500 cal yr B.P. coastal dunes ceased to develop allowing dense Melaleuca forest to establish in a Restionaceae swamp. Dune-sand input into the swamp was diminished further as the increasingly dense vegetation prevented fluvial and aeolian transported sand arriving from coastal sources. This same process impounded the drainage basin allowing a perennial lake to form between 5500 and 4000 cal yr B.P. Myriophyllum and other aquatic taxa colonised the lake periphery under the most extensive woodland recorded for the Holocene. The palynological data support an effective precipitation model proposed for northern Australia that suggests more variable conditions in the late Holocene. A more precise measure of effective precipitation change is provided by diatom-based inferences that indicate few changes in lake hydrology. Such interpretations are explained in terms of palynological sensitivity to adjustments in local fire regimes where regional precipitation change may only be recorded indirectly through fire promoting mechanisms, including intensified ENSO periodicity and human impact.     

Middle Holocene dry period in the northern Midwestern United States: Lake levels and pollen stratigraphy

Four cores from Lake Mendota in the Yahara River valley of south-central Wisconsin provide pollen, charcoal, and sediment-stratigraphic evidence of a middle Holocene dry period in the northern Midwest. The lake level was lower between about 6500 and 3500 yr B.P. indicating that runoff from the upper Yahara River basin may have ceased during the drier seasons of the year. Derived estimates of precipitation between 6500 and 3500 yr B.P. indicate a decrease of about 10% (down to about 700 mm) from the present precipitation value of 800 mm. A warming between 6500 and 3500 yr B.P. is also interpreted based on a change of vegetation from rich mesophytic forest before 6500 yr B.P. to Quercus savanna, with increased charcoal abundances after that time. After 3500 yr B.P., a closed Quercus forest and decreased charcoal suggest a cooler and wetter climate. The qualitative paleoecological interpretations, quantitative precipitation reconstructions based on pollen from the region (including the Lake Mendota data), and estimates of hydrologic budget based on lake-level changes, all show indications of a dry and warm middle Holocene. Evidence from a large regional array of sites also supports these interpretations.     

西藏扎布耶盐湖30.0 ka B P以来水位与古降水量变化

扎布耶湖9级大型沙砾堤记录了约30．0ka B P以来水位退缩历史，与北部拉果错、南部塔若错的垭口沉积记录了3个湖泊最后分离的时间。本文应用数字地面高程模型(DEM)，计算了扎布耶各级沙堤对应湖面期的湖水面积、体积与含盐量；分析了扎布耶与拉果错、塔若错的分-合历程，计算了各时期汇流盆地总面积；参考湖泊、冰川、孢粉、天文学等多学科关于古温度、辐射平衡的结论，得出了较为可信的计算参数。在此基础上，应用根据西藏实际情况得出的辐射平衡和水面蒸发、陆面蒸发计算模型，代入封闭盆地水量平衡方程，得出了较Kutzbach水-能方程更可靠的降雨量-水域面积／流域面积比的非线性方程，计算出泛湖期(9级沙堤，40．0～28．0ka B P)该区降雨量567 mm／a，盛冰阶时降至350mm／a以下，冰期后增至402mm／a，随后逐步下降直至约Ⅰ-1级阶地时(海拔4421m，3．53ka B P)为280mm／a(约为现代的两倍)。通过定量恢复该区30．0ka B P以来降水量变化，为认识西藏高原湖泊演化和古环境、古季风演化提供了定量依据。     

Estimates of holocene precipitation for Rajasthan,India, based on pollen and lake-level data

A pollen profile obtained from lake sediments at Lunkaransar, Rajasthan, in northwest India was used along with a pollen-climate calibration function to estimate past precipitation. Between 10,500 and 3500 yr B.P., the estimated precipitation was about 500 mm/yr, or about 200 mm/yr above the modern value. A model was used for the energy and hydrologic budget of a lake basin and lake at Sambhar (located 240 km SE of Lunkaransar) to calculate that a 200 mm/yr increase in rainfall above the modern amount would have raised the lake level about 20 m above the modern level. Topographic charts and satellite imagery provided some evidence in support of an enlarged paleolake of that elevation, but field exploration would be required to confirm the size and date of a former lake. After about 3500 yr B.P., the Lunkaransar profile indicated a desiccated lake bed; because no pollen was preserved, the pollen-climate calibration function was of no use for estimating the amount of the precipitation decline. A reduction of precipitation of about 200 mm/yr below the modern amount was estimated from the energy and hydrologic budget for paleolake Sambhar by assuming that the lake was one-tenth of its present size during the dry interval.     

Holocene variations in the Asian monsoon inferred from the geochemistry of lake sediments in central Tibet

We present a record of monsoon variations for the early and middle Holocene that is inferred from the geochemistry of sediment cores from Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. The resolution of this record is better than 50 yr and the age model is derived from radiocarbon ages of terrestrial charcoal, which eliminates errors associated with the lake hard-water effect. We made down-core geochemical measurements of % carbonate, % organic carbon, C/N and δ¹³C of bulk organic matter, δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O of carbonate, and % dolomite. Proxy calibration and modern water-balance reconstruction show that these are proxies for lake depth and the amount of monsoon precipitation. We find that lake level and monsoon precipitation have been decreasing at Ahung Co since the early Holocene (∼7500 cal yr B.P.). Superimposed on this trend are rapid declines in monsoon rainfall at 7000-7500 and 4700 cal yr B.P. and seven century-scale wet-dry oscillations. The cores do not contain sediment from the last ∼4000 yr. Surface sediments from the lake accumulated during the 20th century, however. From this, we argue that lake levels have risen again recently following a late Holocene dry period.     

Holocene Climate Inferred from Oxygen Isotope Ratios in Lake Sediments, Central Brooks Range, Alaska

Analyses of sediment cores from two lakes in the central Brooks Range provide temperature and moisture balance information for the past 8500 cal yr at century-scale resolution. Two methods of oxygen isotope analysis are used to reconstruct past changes in the effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) and temperature. Effective moisture is inferred from oxygen isotope ratios in sediment cellulose from Meli Lake (area 0.13 km², depth 19.4 m). The lake has a low watershed-to-lake-area ratio (7) and significant evaporation relative to input. Summer temperature shifts are based on oxygen isotope analyses of endogenic calcite from Tangled Up Lake (area 0.25 km², depth 3.5 m). This basin has a larger watershed-to-lake-area ratio (91) and less evaporation relative to input. Sediment oxygen isotope analyses from the two sites indicate generally more arid conditions than present prior to 6000 cal yr B.P. Subsequently, the region became increasingly wet. Temperature variability is recorded minimally at centennial scale resolution with values that are generally cool for the past 6700 cal yr. The timing and direction of climate variability indicated by the oxygen isotope time series from Meli and Tangled Up lakes are consistent with previously established late Holocene glacier advances at 5000 cal yr B.P. in the central Brooks Range, and high lake-levels at Birch Lake since 5500 cal yr B.P. This unique use of oxygen isotopes reveals both moisture balance and temperature histories at previously undetected high-resolution temporal scales for northern Alaska during the middle to late Holocene.     

Geoarchaeology and geochronology of pluvial Lake Chapala,Baja California,Mexico

Stratigraphic exposures in natural profiles, archaeological excavation units, backhoe trenches, and an uncased water well from the Laguna Seca Chapala basin in the Central Desert of Baja California (29°N, 115°W) record lake level and climate changes and provide a context for prehistoric occupation predating 9070 yr B.P. and extending through the Holocene. Lithofacies analysis points to the presence of a large (ca. 66 km²) lake prior to 9070 yr B.P., which desiccated by 7.45 ka yr B.P., promoting rapid dune growth. New dating and redefinition of stratigraphic units in the basin refutes earlier models of lacustrine history and prehistoric occupation including a proposed series of Pleistocene lake levels with associated cultural occupations. The geologic record from the Laguna Seca Chapala basin compares well with other paleoenvironmental records in southwestern North America, supporting interpretations of wet and cool conditions in Baja California during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

长江下游流域第四纪古年地表径流量的估算——一种第四纪古水文学研究方法的应用尝试

利用以现代数据建立的年平均温度和年平均地表降水量-年平均地表径流量关系式以及古年温度值和古年降水量值,估算了位于长江下游流域的镇江、太湖、上海地区的晚更新世寒冷期以来不同地质时代的古年地表径流量值。结果表明,长江下游流域年地表径流量在晚更新世寒冷期较现代少约95—60％;在全新世早期由较现代少约34％至多约55％,而在全新世中期则很可能约为现代的1.2—3.3倍。     

Paleoecological and archaeological implications of a late Pleistocene/Early holocene record of vegetation and climate from the pacific coastal plain of panama

A phytolith record from Monte Oscuro, a crater lake located 10 m above sea level on the Pacific coastal plain of Panama, shows that during the Late Pleistocene the lake bed was dry and savanna-like vegetation expanded at the expense of tropical deciduous forest, the modern potential vegetation. A significant reduction of precipitation below current levels was almost certainly required to effect the changes observed. Core sediment characteristics indicate that permanent inundation of the Monte Oscuro basin with water occurred at about 10,500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Pollen and phytolith records show that deciduous tropical forest expanded into the lake’s watershed during the early Holocene. Significant burning of the vegetation and increases of weedy plants at ca. 7500 to 7000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. indicate disturbance, which most likely resulted from early human occupation of the seasonal tropical forest near Monte Oscuro and the development of slash-and-burn methods of cultivation.     

Late Quaternary environmental studies on salt lakes in western Rajasthan,India: a summarised view

The paper reviews pollen analytical and palaeoenvironmental work carried out on saline lakes in western Rajasthan, northwest India. The saline lakes are salient geomorphological features within the arid and semi-arid landscapes to the west of the Aravalli mountain ranges. Preliminary palynological work was carried out on two profiles from a gypsum-rich lake depression around Thob (District of Barmer). The varied pollen data are indicative of a fluctuating vegetational assemblage, possibly in response to local hydrological conditions and not necessarily indicative of climatic change. Pollen of Ephedra sp. (a typical desert species) in the lower levels suggests episodes of relatively dry conditions during the early phase of lake sedimentation at the end of the Pleistocene. Other work at four lake sites, on the basis of pollen analysis has indicated shifts in climatic and vegetational belts during the early Holocene, especially during the period of Indus Valley Culture. Later in the Holocene, between 5000 and 3500 yr BP, rainfall variations have been related to the dynamics of the monsoon. Pioneering geoarchaeological studies carried out at the palaeolithic site of 16 R and the adjacent Didwana lake have illustrated palaeoclimatic fluctuations and accompanying changes in cultural stages from the lower palaeolithic to mesolithic. These studies have been extended geochemically and sedimentologically through a detailed study documenting a history of salinity from 20000 to 13000 yr BP and freshwater conditions from 9000 to 6000 yr BP. Later studies have illustrated a sequence of changes reflecting summer and winter precipitation. These have indicated steppe vegetation during the last Glacial Maximum along with hypersaline lake conditions at Didwana, inferring a weakened summer monsoon and relatively high winter precipitation. The taxa indicative of both summer and winter precipitation in the mid-Holocene declined during the late Holocene, at the same time as falling lake levels around 4000 yr BP, a time when other lakes, at Sambhar, Lunkaransar and Pachpadra, also became ephemeral. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological basis of the Devils Lake,North Dakota (USA), terminal lake flood disaster

Devils Lake, a terminal lake in northeast North Dakota (USA), has experienced catastrophic flooding since 1993. From January 31, 1993, to December 31, 2014, lake level rose from 433.62 to 442.44 m, lake area expanded from 179.9 to 653.5 km², and lake volume increased from 0.70 to 3.80 km³. More than $1 billion ($USD) has been spent in government payments to mitigate direct, primary, tangible flood damages. This paper provides a case study of the hydrological basis of the Devils Lake flood disaster. The unique geomorphic setting, paleoclimatic record, and hydroclimatic conditions of the region are summarized, and a wide range of hydroclimatic data is examined to provide a broad understanding of the physical basis of the flood disaster. The primary cause of the disaster was a transition to a sustained wetter climate that resulted in a dramatic response in basin hydrological variables in 1993. The transition from a long-term dry period to a long-term wet period caused the lake water budget to begin to change from an atmosphere-controlled water budget dominated by precipitation input to an amplifier lake water budget dominated by surface runoff input to the lake. Other important hydrological factors include a nonlinear precipitation–runoff relationship following the long-term drought, fill-spill and fill-merge hydrological behavior that is characteristic of wetland complexes, an increase in the lake area-to-basin area ratio, and the critical role of frozen soils in controlling infiltration and runoff production of spring snowmelt. Engineering works to manage lake volume through two outlets have reduced, but not entirely eliminated, future flood risk.

     

西南河流源区径流量变化规律及其未来演变趋势

采用统计学方法及集合经验模态分解、小波分析、水文模型等多种方法,在对气象水文、湖泊岩芯、树木年轮、气候模式数据进行深入分析的基础上,研究了西南河流源区径流变化规律与历史丰枯规律及其驱动机制,分析了未来气候变化影响下的径流演变趋势。结果表明：三江源地区的径流近50 a整体表现为上升趋势,雅鲁藏布江流域除尼洋河外的其他区域年径流量整体呈不显著下降趋势,气候变化是导致三江源、雅鲁藏布江和怒江流域径流变化的主要原因,其中降水是引起径流变化最关键的因子;主要河流径流不同时间尺度的丰枯演变规律为,雅鲁藏布江中游全新世洪水事件呈现出早晚全新世频繁、中全新世相对较少的特征,近500 a怒江流域重建径流序列存在10个丰水期和10个枯水期,丰枯序列变化主要受季风环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)活动的影响;在未来15～60 a,全球持续增温将使西南河流源区平均年径流深相比近30 a增加6%～14%,而极端径流呈现出“干更干、湿更湿”的变化特征,同时生态因子对径流变化的影响不可忽视。     

Glacial Lake development and marine inundation,Deer Lake area,Newfoundland, Canada: Topographically controlled deglaciation of an interior Basin

A large interior basin in west-central Newfoundland (covering the area of modern Deer Lake, Grand Lake, Sandy Lake and Birchy Lake) is connected to the sea by a narrow breach of a coastal mountain range. During retreat of Late Wisconsinan glaciers, this basin was occupied by a short-lived glacial lake impounded by remnant ice in coastal fjords, and drained by a spillway at the western end of the lake. Evidence for this lake is fragmentary, and consists of strandline features that fall on a plane of elevation consistent with the post-glacial isostatic tilt. Following collapse of the ice dams and subsequent lake drainage at some time prior to 12 220 yr BP, the Deer Lake basin was inundated by the sea to an elevation of about 45 m a.s.l. Deltas were formed at the basin edges, and thick successions of fine-grained rhythmites blanketed the basin floor. Isostatic rebound resulted in falling relative sea levels, and, following a stillstand marked by a period of deltaic deposition at 33 m a.s.l., isolation of the Deer Lake basin from marine influence in the early Holocene. This style of deglaciation differs from previously accepted models for this part of eastern Canada, which showed progressive retreat from the coast to remnant centres on topographic highs. In the model proposed here, a large, low-elevation basin was deglaciated early, at a similar time to ice retreat to coastal positions from offshore. This pattern of deglaciation may be found in other areas with similar topographic settings.     

Seismic stratigraphy, buried beach ridges and contourite drifts: the Late Quaternary history of the closed Lago Cardiel basin, Argentina (49°S)

The results of a seismic stratigraphic analysis of a closed lake basin, Lago Cardiel, in southernmost South America are reported. Very few high-resolution, continental records spanning the Late Quaternary have been obtained from this region. Seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis allows a reconstruction of lake level variations. Two major hiatuses of unknown age occurred during the early evolution of the basin with the deposition of an alluvial fan in a restricted area in the intervening time period. Following the development of a relatively shallow lake during the late Pleistocene and a short desiccation pulse around 11 220 ¹⁴C yr BP, a transgression of over 135 m occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. The transgression was associated with the formation of beach ridges preserved in the lake stratigraphy on the floor of the modern Lago Cardiel at four different elevations. The preservation of largely unreworked beach ridges indicates a stepwise rise in the lake level. There is no seismic evidence of a major lowering of the lake below modern level during the entire Holocene. Deposition since the mid-Holocene is marked by strong lateral differences in sediment accumulation with a depocentre slightly to the north of the basin midpoint and a pronounced mounded distribution. Seismic reflection geometries, as well as sedimentological characteristics indicate a lacustrine contourite drift covering an area of 80–100 km². As Lago Cardiel is under the influence of westerly winds, these most likely drove lake circulation. The identification of drowned beach ridges and of contourite drifts illustrates that high-resolution seismic stratigraphy is not only a powerful tool in reconstructing past lake level elevations for closed lake basins, but it can also provide information about the rate of lake level changes and the presence and strength of lake currents.     

乌鲁木齐河山区流域径流形成的实验研究

乌鲁木齐河山区流域较之山前平原区有着充沛的降水，是径流形成的基础。降水量随海拔增加而增加，高山带降水以固态为主，使冰川成为山区流域重要的水储存形式。降水观测误差对流域降水量和蒸发量的估算有较大影响。冰雪消融可以依据常规气象要素的参数化热通量表达式来计算。在高山草甸蒸发量的观测、计算中，蒸渗器称重法与波恩比率法较之通量－梯度法有较高的观测精度。山区流域径流系数随流域平均海拔增加而增加，高山冰川作用区在径流形成和调节中起着重要作用。     

Multi-proxy evidence for Holocene lake-level and salinity changes at An Loch Mór,a coastal lake on the Aran Islands,Western Ireland

Curves for Holocene lake levels and salinity changes are presented for An Loch Mór, a small oligohaline lake on the Aran Islands off the west coast of Ireland, based on palaeoecological investigations of a 12 m long, lake-sediment core. New insights are also provided into Holocene sea-level change in the Galway Bay region. Particular emphasis has been placed on the ostracod fauna, both past and present. Salinity and lake-level changes were reconstructed from the fossil ostracod assemblages, based on the known tolerances of individual species and on the assemblages as a whole. Additional evidence was provided by other proxies including strontium–isotope ratios derived from ostracod shells and other carbonates, plant macrofossil and pollen analyses, and sedimentological changes. The early Holocene (pre-Boreal, i.e. 11.5–10 ka) was characterised by low lake levels and slightly elevated salinity values, probably the result of high evapotranspiration and low precipitation rather than elevated sea levels. Early Holocene plant and animal migration to the island does not seem to have been impeded but relative sea levels were not necessarily so low (below −40 m a.s.l.) that landbridges were present to the mainland. Between ca 10 and 8.5 ka, relatively high lake levels prevailed. At 8.3 and 7.5 ka, minor fluctuations (lowering) of the lake level occurred that are assumed to relate to early Holocene abrupt events. Beginning at 7.05 ka, lake levels declined sharply. A general trend towards rising lake levels started at ca 6.4 ka and accelerated at ca 5.6 ka as runoff increased as a result of Neolithic clearances. At ca 4.8 ka, lake levels began to rise once again, probably in response to changes in rainfall and/or evapotranspiration and runoff. Lower lake levels during the first half of the 1st millennium AD were probably a response to decreased runoff as a result of a drier climate coupled with regeneration of woody vegetation. The sharpest rise in both lake levels and salinity began during the ninth century AD, which is attributed to a rapid rise in relative sea level.     

A lumped conceptual approach for modeling hydrological processes: the case of Scopia catchment area,Central Greece

In the catchment area of Scopia, Central Greece, a lumped applied approach of water balance was accomplished, by applying the Zygos model, which delineates an essential water balance forms. The model is in view of Thornthwaite model, in its modified version. It can be adjusted automatically, with the evolutionary annealing-simplex technique for nonlinear optimization, or manually and the input data are precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration. In the present study, both programmed and manual calibration occurred. Programmed calibration took place, utilizing a specimen of measured runoff values from October 2009 to March 2011. Despite the fact that the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) value was high (0.87), the simulated parameters of water balance had abnormal significance for Scopia catchment area. On the contrary, manual calibration uncovered that the actual evapotranspiration constitutes 64.6% (450.1 mm) of the precipitation. Runoff and percolation represent 20.6% (143.6 mm) and 14.8% (102.9 mm) of the precipitation, respectively. The NSC (0.70) and the validation criteria exhibit an ideal adjustment of simulated to measured runoff, while the hydrological parameters appeared to have a physical significance for the study site. Zygos model connects the emergence of springs with the development of the karstification in the carbonate rocks of the region and affirms the predominance of runoff versus percolation due to the hydrolithological structure of the Scopia catchment. This is related to the presence of episodic floods in the area. The yearly precipitation values were found with an error of 0.2% and are viewed as insignificant.     

华北平原地下水演化地史特征与时空差异性研究

近万年以来华北平原地下水演化经历了百年、千年尺度的早全新世增雨、中全新世多雨和晚全新世干旱频发过程, 地下水净补给与降水、蒸发及径流之间水分通量随之变化, 并且在时空上呈现明显的差异性。基于全新世以来华北平原浅部地下水循环演化过程中水量均衡, 280~350 mm年降水量是阈值。当小于该阈值时, 地下水系统呈现负均衡; 现阶段不是区域地下水净补给最少时期, 而是处于全新世多年平均水平。目前, 华北平原区域地下水位不断下降是人类耗用地下水的强度远超过自然水循环的更新能力所致, 急需规范人类用水行为。