Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

大地电磁测深资料的噪声干扰

在概述大地电磁场场源的基础上,阐明了影响大地电磁测深资料的噪声分为场源噪声、地质噪声和人文噪声,它们分别来自不同的源。研究了各种噪声对大地电磁测深资料的影响特点,并对几种常见的噪声干扰信号进行了频谱分析。结果表明地质噪声一般影响全频域,近场干扰主要影响高频的有限频率,但近处雷电影响高频的较宽频带,而负荷系统的不稳定则主要影响低频。最后提出了消除或降低各种噪声干扰的可能办法或建议。     

分布式降雨径流物理模型的建立和应用

根据流域降雨径流的主要过程,考虑流域气象及下垫面要素的空间异质性,建立了具有物理基础的分布式降雨径流模型。模型将流域离散为栅格计算单元,并按水流特性分栅格单元为坡面单元和河网单元。在坡面单元上主要计算降雨、下渗、坡面流、壤中流等水文过程,而河网单元则主要计算河道汇流过程。模型利用空间权重插值方法将雨量站点的降雨量插值到各个计算单元,采用运动波方程来计算坡面流,将壤中流概化为垂向流和侧向流,分别用Green-Ampt公式和运动波方程来模拟,河道汇流也采用运动波方程。模型结构简单、参数的物理意义明确,大多数参数可利用DEM、土壤类型图、植被类型图直接获取,少数敏感参数通过率定确定。模型在浙江省甬江上游黄土岭流域和皎口流域进行了应用和检验,其结果令人满意。     

青海省东部农业区雷电灾害风险评估

利用2005-2013年青海省东部农业区14个县的雷电、雷电灾害、人口数量和生产总值等资料,采用《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》（DB 50/214-2006）中的雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,分析了该地的雷电灾害风险及区划,该风险区划对青海省东北农业区防御雷电灾害规划具有很好的参考价值,也是制定科学合理的雷电防护技术路线的重要依据：青海省东部农业区9年间共出现雷电3 801 d,最早出现在3月下旬,最晚结束在11月上旬,雷电出现最多地区为大通县;雷电灾害共出现47次,最早出现在4月,10月份结束,发生最多在6月份,盛夏7月雷电灾害却少,西宁市和湟源县雷电灾害出现最多,湟中县雷电造成的人员伤亡最多,共伤亡11人,大部分在山间劳作的村民和牧民,与青海省东部农业区发生的其它气象灾害相比,雷电灾害最容易造成人员和牲畜伤亡。雷电灾害风险以西宁市为中心,向四周扩散逐渐降低,北部地区相对高于南部地区,西宁市、大通县遭受雷电灾害的可能性程度最大,乐都县虽然近9年没有上报的雷电灾情,但它的雷电灾害风险并不低。     

Analysis of the effect of trees on block propagation using a DEM model: implications for rockfall modelling

The objective of this research was to use numerical models based on mechanical approaches to improve the integration of the protective role of forests against rockfall into block propagation models. A model based on the discrete element method (DEM) was developed to take into account the complex mechanical processes involved during the impact of a block on a tree. This modelling approach requires the definition of many input parameters and cannot be directly integrated into block propagation models. A global sensitivity analysis identified the leading parameters of the block kinematics after impact (i.e. block energy reduction, trajectory changes, and rotational velocity): the impact velocity, the tree diameter, and the impact point horizontal location (i.e. eccentricity). Comparisons with the previous experimental and numerical studies of block impacts on trees demonstrated the applicability of the DEM model and showed some of the limitations of earlier approaches. Our sensitivity analysis highlights the significant influence of the impact velocity on the reduction of the block’s kinetic energy. Previous approaches usually also focus on parameters such as impact height, impact vertical incidence, and tree species, whose importance is only minor according to the present results. This suggests that the integration of forest effects into block propagation models could be both improved and simplified. The DEM model can also be used as an alternative to classical approaches for the integration of forest effects by directly coupling it with block propagation models. This direct coupling only requires the additional definition of the location and the diameter of each tree. Indeed, the input parameters related to the mechanical properties of the stem and the block/stem interaction in the DEM model can be set to average values because they are not leading parameters. The other input parameters are already defined or calculated in the block propagation model.     

Conceptual data model and method of settlement calculation for deformation and water release from saturated soft soil

Research on the seepage deformation of saturated soft soil has resulted in many achievements based, mainly, on existing seepage-deformation control equations. In reality, however, these control equations and related parameters suffer from many problems. The conductivity coefficient in the seepage control equation and the consolidation coefficient in the consolidation equation clearly resemble each other in form. However, in existing regulations and practice, soil deformation is rarely calculated by substituting the conductivity coefficient obtained from field hydrogeological experiments for the consolidation coefficient. Similarly, seepage is seldom calculated by substituting the conductivity coefficient with the consolidation coefficient obtained from consolidation experiments. This can be attributed to the fact that the two coefficients have some obvious differences. Moreover, the settlement deformation of soil calculated using the existing seepage and consolidation models does not agree very well with the measured deformation. Also, the values calculated using different models usually deviate markedly. Research indicates that these problems derive from the fact that the seepage and consolidation equations are based on different concepts of elementary volume. This study proposes using two separate elementary volume concepts: deformation elementary volume and control elementary volume. The concepts are adopted for saturated soft soil and the results used to analyze the relationships and differences between the two concepts. Moreover, we developed a conceptual data model (CDM) for the water released from and the deformation of the saturated soil. The model discloses the differences between the consolidation and conductivity coefficients both in their physical significances and magnitudes. The inter-relationship between the two coefficients is also revealed. An analytical solution for the deformation and water released from saturated soft soil is deduced based on the CDM model and the relationship between the hydrogeological and consolidation deformation parameters is established. A physical test model for saturated soft soil under certain conditions is also designed to verify the analytical solution using a method of curve fitting. Seepage and deformation tests and case studies show that the parameters calculated using the consolidation model are in agreement with those obtained from the CDM seepage model based on the measured data for flux and settlement vs. time. Furthermore, the relationship between conductivity and consolidation coefficients is verified. The method suggested in this paper is generally applicable to problems involving the consolidation coefficient, volume compressibility, conductivity coefficient, hydraulic conductivity, and specific storage of saturated soft soil, etc. Thus, its potential applications are numerous.     

Numerical Simulation of the 1969 Portuguese Tsunami by a Finite Element Method

On 28 February 1969, the coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco were affected by sea waves generated by a submarine earthquake (Ms = 7.3) with its epicenter located off Portugal. The propagation of this tsunami has been simulated by a finite element numerical model solving the Boussinesq equations. These equations have been discretized using the finite element Galerkin method and a Crank–Nicholson scheme in time. The model is validated by investigating the propagation of a solitary wave over a flat bottom. The grid sizes for the 1969 event have been determined by one-dimensional tests offshore and in shallow water regions. The two-dimensional simulation of the 1969 tsunami is carried out using the hydraulic source calculated from the geophysical model of Okada and seismic parameters of Fukao. The modeled waves are compared with the recorded ones with respect to travel times, maximum amplitudes and periods of the signal. The comparison between Boussinesq and shallow-water models shows that the effects of frequency dispersion are minor. Good agreement is found for most of the studied gauges.     

2.5维各向异性介质中地震波场数值模拟

这里实现了在2.5维各向异性介质中地震波传播的数值模拟。首先从2.5维一阶速度-应力弹性各向异性波动方程出发,得出了该方程的拟谱法数值解法;然后通过对Marmousi速度模型进行数值模拟,表明了拟谱法的有效性;最后计算并分析了均匀和混合各向异性介质中波的传播快照和理论模拟的地震记录,进一步认识了波在各向异性介质中的传播规律。     

Rockfall Hazard Analysis From Discrete Fracture Network Modelling with Finite Persistence Discontinuities

Developing an accurate representation of the rock mass fabric is a key element in rock fall hazard analysis. The orientation, persistence and density of fractures control the volume and shape of unstable blocks or compartments. In this study, the discrete fracture modelling technique and digital photogrammetry were used to accurately depict the fabric. A volume distribution of unstable blocks was derived combining polyhedral modelling and kinematic analyses. For each block size, probabilities of failure and probabilities of propagation were calculated. A complete energy distribution was obtained by considering, for each block size, its occurrence in the rock mass, its probability of falling, its probability to reach a given location, and the resulting distribution of energies at each location. This distribution was then used with an energy–frequency diagram to assess the hazard.     

The current status of lightning safety knowledge and the effects of lightning education modes on college students

Lightning is a natural hazard occurring frequently within the United States causing injury, damage, and death. To avoid this hazard, citizens need to self-mitigate their risk by taking action. The level of lightning safety knowledge must be known to determine if citizens have the tools to mitigate their risk. No studies have previously explored the status of lightning safety knowledge or the best way to educate about lightning safety. Therefore, the research community is unaware if citizens understand their risk and have the knowledge to mitigate their risk, or if current safety programs are effectively educating citizens. This study distributed two surveys to college students in Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. Following the pre-mode survey, students were shown videos, given brochures, or both with lightning safety information. A follow-up survey was then distributed. Participants were found to have a moderate level of lightning safety knowledge. Study areas of variable risk as well as past death rates were not found to affect the rate of knowledge. The presence of education programs were not affected by the variable risk. Misunderstood areas of lightning safety knowledge were associated mostly with the lightning and thunder relationship as well as safety before and after a thunderstorm. The education modes involving a video were the most effective at increasing knowledge. Gender displayed minor differences in gaining of lightning safety knowledge.     

纵波频谱特征与裂缝带关系初探——在中国大陆科学钻探中的应用

裂缝带的识别和判断,对于实现中国大陆科学钻探的研究目标,为地学研究提供基础的井中物性参数具有很重要的意义。阵列声波测井的纵波频谱参数为实现这个目标提供了可能。通过对纵波频谱特征的分析得到这样的认识:对于断裂构造,纵波的频谱特征有着明显的变化,如纵波的主频位置向低频偏移,在低频位置上其幅度(能量)急剧地增大,与上下未破碎的岩层有着非常明显的差别。通过这些明显的特征,可以很好地识别和判断构造破碎带。利用主峰位置漂移、主峰幅度、主峰的半幅值高宽、主峰的能量这几个参数,对中国大陆科学钻探主孔的裂缝带进行了识别和判断。     

黄河内蒙古河段输沙量与淤积量计算方法

基于多沙河流"多来多排"输沙基本公式,建立了考虑上站来沙量、前期累计淤积量、临界输沙水量及干支流泥沙粒径影响的输沙量一般表达式。进而根据黄河内蒙古河段1953—2010年实测水沙资料,得到了内蒙古巴彦高勒—头道拐全河段及巴彦高勒—三湖河口和三湖河口—头道拐分河段的年输沙量公式,并根据输沙率法采用建立的输沙量公式计算了各河段1953—2010年的逐年冲淤量。选取三湖河口—头道拐河段的计算结果分析表明,在输沙基本公式基础上增加前期累计淤积量、临界输沙水量及干支流泥沙粒径参数,所得公式计算的年冲淤量与实测值之间的相关系数R2由基本公式的0.41依次提高到0.50、0.75和0.80,说明在基本公式基础上进一步考虑这些参数的必要性。此外,全河及分河段输沙公式计算所得输沙量及各河段冲淤量和累计淤积量与实测值的符合程度均较好,表明建立的输沙公式能够用于不同水沙条件下的输沙量和冲淤量计算,可为分析内蒙古河段的输沙特性和长期淤积趋势提供参考。     

薄互煤层中透射槽波探测断层的正演模拟

为了研究西南地区矿井薄互煤层中透射槽波探测断层的可行性,选择具有代表性的攀枝花煤业集团某矿为研究对象,根据实际地质资料建立不含夹矸、含3层夹矸、含3层夹矸和断层的3个薄互煤层的地质模型,通过三维弹性波正演模拟分析槽波的波场特征和频散特征,总结振幅衰减系数成像在薄互煤层中槽波探测断层发育位置及延展方向的有效性;并结合实际应用,探讨了透射槽波在薄互煤层中的传播速度及频散特征,以及断层、夹矸对槽波传播的影响。结果表明:薄互煤层中透射槽波探测,断层在影响薄互煤层槽波传播中占主导作用;0.5 m以下夹矸对槽波的发育和能量成像影响不大;在煤厚相同的情况下,含夹矸层状模型相比不含夹矸层状模型的槽波主频低,槽波对煤厚2 m、夹矸厚度0.5 m以下的薄互煤层能够进行比较准确的探测。透射槽波可在薄互煤层中探测断距大于1/2煤厚的断层位置、走向及延展长度,可为西南地区薄互煤层中构造探查提供参考。      

A study of lightning activity over land and oceanic regions of India

Monthly variations of lightning activity over typical land and oceanic regions of India were examined using satellite data (OTD) for a 5-year period (1995–1999). It is noted that the nature of variation between surface air maximum temperature (T _max), thunderstorm days (Th_n), and lightning flash count over ER and WR showed remarkable correspondence and sensitivity with each other on monthly time scale. As we move out of winter season and enter the monsoon season, via pre-monsoon season, the WR undergoes cooling relative to the ER in the range 0.1–1.2°C. As a result, WR experiences reduction of thunder days and lowering in flash count. This decrease in T _max, Th_n, and flash count over WR may also be associated with relatively small values of T _θw and CAPE in comparison with similar values over ER during the monsoon season. Our observation of associated reduction in Th_n and lightning count per 1°C cooling in surface air maximum temperature suggests reduction of ∼3.5 thunderstorms per station and 73 flashes. Comparison of lightning flashes between pairs of coastal, oceanic, arid-zone, hilly, and island stations reveals distinct relationship between climate regime and intensity of lightning activity. We may conclude the results of this study by saying that the overhead lightning activity is a clear reflection of the status of the underlying ground-earth properties. A close and continuous monitoring of lightning activity may be considered as a need of present day scientific studies.     

Analysis of Stochastic Seismic Wave Interaction with a Slippery Rock Fault

Stochastic seismic wave interaction with a slippery rock fault is studied, based on the principle of conservation of momentum at the wave fronts along the fault. By using the displacement discontinuity method, the wave propagation equations are derived for incident longitudinal-(P-) and shear-(S-) waves, respectively. This is an extension of the study by Li and Ma (2010) for blast-induced wave propagation across a linear rock joint. Stochastic seismic waves are generated from a frequency spectrum and used to analyze the seismic wave interaction with a rock fault having a Coulomb-slip behavior. Parametric studies are carried out to investigate the effect of the intensity and impinging angle of the incident seismic waves on wave propagation across a slippery rock fault. Results show that the transmission of the incident P-wave is almost not affected by the fault, on the contrary, this is not the case for an incident S-wave, due to the occurrence of a relative slip which is related to the impinging angle of the incident S-wave. A quantitative study is presented which is of help in understanding the propagation and attenuation laws of seismic waves in discontinuous rock masses.     

弹性介质边坡模糊有限元方法研究

针对弹性介质体边坡内存在的模糊特性,从弹性力学的基本方程式入手,应用模糊运算法则、模糊积分和模糊微分等方法,推导了弹性力学几何方程、物理方程和平衡方程的模糊表达形式。利用最小模糊位能原理,建立了考虑多参数模糊性的模糊有限元控制方程。数值算例表明,弹性介质体边坡考虑模糊特性影响的情况下的分析成果,能更全面地反映出计算参数模糊特性变化引起的边坡内力和位移的改变情况。     

薄煤层透射槽波探测技术及应用

为提高透射槽波探测技术在薄煤层中对断层的解释精度，根据槽波在薄煤层中吸收衰减严重，传播距离近的特点，提出采用槽波最远传播距离来约束CT成像的方法。通过理论推导，研究不同煤层厚度条件下槽波频率的变化情况；以1.5 m煤层为主要研究对象，正演模拟槽波的衰减特性，确定1.5 m煤层中槽波的有效传播距离为300 m。对山东某矿15号煤层的槽波资料，应用该技术CT成像，解释的断层和巷道揭露推断的断层位置基本吻合。结果表明:对1.5 m煤层的槽波资料处理时，以300 m为最大有效传播距离，对实际数据进行能量衰减成像，提高了槽波CT成像质量和解释精度。该方法可为薄煤层槽波探测技术提供借鉴意义。      

估算闪电产生氮氧化物量的研究回顾与进展

在对流层内,闪电产生的氮氧化物(LNOx)是氮氧化物(NOx)的主要来源之一,这一区域内,由于NOx生命史较长,且控制着对流层臭氧(O3)和氢氧根(OH)的含量,影响着全球大气环境和气候变化.针对LNOx量的估算这一大气化学及雷电物理领域内的研究热点,介绍了NOx的主要来源、LNOx的产生机制及其对气候变化的重要性,详细综述了国内外现有的估算LNOx量的主要方法和估算结果.综述结果表明,目前估算LNOx量采用的研究方法主要有野外观测、实验室模拟、理论模式计算和卫星数据反演,主要通过观测或假设得到单位能量产生的NOx量,或单位通道长度产生的NOx量,同时通过观测或假设得到一次放电通道产生的总能量或一次放电的总通道长度,进而外推或数值模拟某一局地区域或全球的LNOx.由于不同地区、不同雷暴、甚至不同的闪电个体之间的显著差异导致不同的研究者估算LNOx时采用的参数值不同,进而使得LNOX估算量的结果差异较大,不确定性增大.近30年LNOx较为精确的产量计算结果平均值为5.2(2.8 ～9.1) Tg/a.最后提出,今后需继续对比分析利用先进的观测手段得到NOx和闪电的野外观测和卫星观测数据,进一步认识LNOx的产生机制,得到针对不同地区、不同强度的雷暴和不同的闪电个体估算NOx的参数取值,进一步减小估算LNOx时所用到的各个参数的不确定性.在此基础上,利用大气化学数值模式模拟局地或全球LNOx的产生和演变及其对其他空气成分的影响和作用,进一步认识LNOx在全球气候变化中的作用.     

饱和冻土中弹性体波传播特性影响参数研究

基于Leclaire对饱和双相孔隙弹性介质Biot模型的扩展,研究含有两种不同固相组分的三相多孔弹性介质中体波的传播特性。以饱和冻土为例,分析了各相体积分数、颗粒形状,接触参数等因素对波动方程中惯性参数、黏性参数、刚度参数的影响;对该三相介质模型进行了退化,分析了孔隙中只含液态水或固态冰时体波的特性;以饱和冻土为例,通过数值计算,探讨了饱和冻土中体波的相速度和衰减系数与胶结参数、接触参数、频率、饱和度、孔隙率等参数的关系。结果表明：与一般的饱和土不同,饱和冻土中存在5种体波,即3种纵波和2种横波;5种体波均具有弥散性和衰减性,且P1波、S1波弥散性和衰减性远小于P2、P3、S2波;胶结参数、饱和度、孔隙率对5种体波的传播特性影响显著,接触参数对传播特性影响较小。