Wind Modulation of Dissolved Oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

A numerical circulation model with a simplified dissolved oxygen module is used to examine the importance of wind-driven ventilation of hypoxic waters in Chesapeake Bay. The model demonstrates that the interaction between wind-driven lateral circulation and enhanced vertical mixing over shoal regions is the dominant mechanism for providing oxygen to hypoxic sub-pycnocline waters. The effectiveness of this mechanism is strongly influenced by the direction of the wind forcing. Winds from the south are most effective at supplying oxygen to hypoxic regions, and winds from the west are shown to be least effective. Simple numerical simulations demonstrate that the volume of hypoxia in the bay is nearly 2.5 times bigger when the mean wind is from the southwest as compared to the southeast. These results provide support for a recent analysis that suggests much of the long-term variability of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay can be explained by variations in the summertime wind direction.     

Meteotsunami in the Great Lakes and on the Atlantic coast of the United States generated by the “derecho” of June 29–30, 2012

Tsunami-like intense sea-level oscillations, associated with atmospheric activity (meteorological tsunamis), are common in the Great Lakes and on the East Coast of the United States. They are generated by various types of atmospheric disturbances including hurricanes, frontal passages, tornados, trains of atmospheric gravity waves, and derechos. “Derecho” is a rapidly moving line of convectively induced intense thunder storm fronts producing widespread damaging winds and squalls. The derecho of June 29–30, 2012 devastatingly propagated from western Iowa to the Atlantic coast, passing more than 1,000 km and producing wind gusts up to 35 m/s. This derecho induced pronounced seiche oscillations in Lake Michigan, Chesapeake Bay, and along the US Atlantic coast. Sea-level records from the updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauge network, together with the NOAA and automated surface-observing system air pressure and wind records, enabled us to examine physical properties and temporal/spatial variations of the generated waves. Our findings indicate that the generation mechanisms of extreme seiches in the basins under study are significantly different: energetic winds play the main role in seiche formation in Chesapeake Bay; atmospheric pressure disturbances are most important for the Atlantic coast; and the combined effect of pressure oscillations and wind is responsible for pronounced events in the Great Lakes. The “generation coefficient,” which is the ratio of the maximum observed sea-level height and the height of air pressure disturbance, was used to map the sea-level response and to identify “hot spots” for this particular event, i.e., harbors and bays with amplified seiche oscillations. The Froude number, Fr = U/c, where U is the speed of the atmospheric disturbance and c is the long-wave speed, is the key parameter influencing the water response to specific atmospheric disturbances; the maximum response was found for those regions and disturbance parameters for which Fr ~1.0.     

Dispersion and recruitment of crab larvae in the Chesapeake Bay plume: Physical and biological controls

As part of the Microbial Exchanges and Coupling in Coastal Atlantic Systems (MECCAS) Project, crab larvae were collected in the shelf waters off Chesapeake Bay in June and August 1985 and April 1986. We conducted hydrographic (temperature, salinity, nutrients) and biological (chlorophyll, copepods) mapping in conjunction with Eulerian and Lagrangian time studies of the vertical distribution of crab larvae in the Chesapeake Bay plume. These abundance estimates are used with current meter records and drifter trajectories to infer mechanisms of larval crab dispersion to the shelf waters and recruitment back into Chesapeake Bay. The highest numbers of crab larvae were usually associated with the Chesapeake Bay plume, suggesting that it was the dominant source of crab larvae to shelf waters. Patches of crab larvae also were found in the higher salinity shelf waters, and possibly were remnants of previous plume discharge events. The distribution of crab larvae in the shelf waters changed on 1–2 d time scales as a consequence of both variations in the discharge rate of the Chesapeake Bay plume and local wind-driven currents. Downwelling-favorable winds (NW) intensified the coastal jet and confined the plume and crab larvae along the coast. In April during a downwelling event (when northwesterly winds predominated), crab zoeae were transported southward along the coast at speeds that at times exceeded 168 km d⁻¹. During June and August the upwelling-favorable winds (S, SW) opposed the anticyclonic turn of the plume and, via Ekman circulation, forced the plume and crab larvae to spread seaward. Plume velocities during these conditions generally were less than 48 km d⁻¹. The recruitment of crab larvae to Chesapeake Bay is facilitated in late summer by the dominance of southerly winds, which can reverse the southward flow of shelf waters. Periodic downwelling-favorable winds can result in surface waters and crab larvae moving toward the entrance of Chesapeake Bay. Approximately 27% of the larval crabs spend at least part of the day in bottom waters, which have a residual drift toward the bay mouth. There appears to be a variety of physical transport mechanisms that can enhance the recruitment of crab larvae into Chesapeake Bay.     

Influences of Wave Climate and Sea Level on Shoreline Erosion Rates in the Maryland Chesapeake Bay

We investigated spatial correlations between wave forcing, sea level fluctuations, and shoreline erosion in the Maryland Chesapeake Bay (CB), in an attempt to identify the most important relationships and their spatial patterns. We implemented the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model and a parametric wave model from the USEPA Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) to simulate wave climate in CB from 1985 to 2005. Calibrated sea level simulations from the CBP hydrodynamic model over the same time period were also acquired. The separate and joint statistics of waves and sea level were investigated for the entire CB. Spatial patterns of sea level during the high wave events most important for erosion were dominated by local north-south winds in the upper Bay and by remote coastal forcing in the lower Bay. We combined wave and sea level data sets with estimates of historical shoreline erosion rates and shoreline characteristics compiled by the State of Maryland at two different spatial resolutions to explore the factors affecting erosion. The results show that wave power is the most significant influence on erosion in the Maryland CB, but that many other local factors are also implicated. Marshy shorelines show a more homogeneous, approximately linear relationship between wave power and erosion rates, whereas bank shorelines are more complex. Marshy shorelines appear to erode faster than bank shorelines, for the same wave power and bank height. A new expression for the rate of shoreline erosion is proposed, building on previous work. The proposed new relationship expresses the mass rate of shoreline erosion as a locally linear function of the difference between applied wave power and a threshold wave power, multiplied by a structure function that depends on the ratio of water depth to bank height.     

Characteristics of Extreme Meteorological Forcing and Water Levels in Mobile Bay, Alabama

The paper presents comprehensive statistical analyses of winds and water levels in Mobile Bay, Alabama, based on long-term meteorological and tidal observations at several locations. A procedure has been developed to select the most probable parent distribution function from a list of candidate distributions. The theoretical functions that fit the data best enable us to predict the extreme values of winds and water levels at different return periods. We have demonstrated the importance of dividing the winds into hurricane and nonhurricane seasons and separating astronomical tides from weather-driven water level changes. The statistical analysis suggests that the wind speed averaged over 8 min at Dauphin Island, Alabama, at the 100-year return period would be 48.9 m/s, which is equivalent to a sustained 1-min wind of 205 km/h, a very strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The probability distribution models predict that the 100-year maximum water level would be 3.23 m above the mean lower low water (MLLW) level at the bay entrance and 3.41 m above the MLLW level near the head of the bay, respectively. Extremely low water levels important to navigation are also found. Application of the predicted extreme winds and surges is illustrated through the development of a storm wave atlas in the estuary. It is expected that the methodology and results presented in this paper will benefit the management and preservation of the ecosystems and habitats in Mobile Bay.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Great South Bay After Sandy: Changes in Circulation and Flushing due to New Inlet

The coastal ocean model FVCOM is applied to quantify the changes in circulation, flushing, and exposure time in Great South Bay, New York, after Superstorm Sandy breached the barrier island in 2012. Since then, the lagoon system is connected to the Atlantic via five instead of four inlets. The model simulations are run on two high-resolution unstructured grids, one for the pre-breach configuration, one including the new inlet, with tidal-only forcing, and summer and winter forcing conditions. Despite its small cross-sectional size, the breach has a relatively large net inflow that leads to a strengthening of the along-bay through-flow in Great South Bay (GSB); the tidally driven volume transport in central GSB quadrupled. The seasonal forcing scenarios show that the southwesterly sea breeze in summer slows down the tidally driven flow, while the forcing conditions in winter are highly variable, and the circulation is dependent on wind direction and offshore sea level. Changes in flushing and exposure time associated with the modified transport patterns are evaluated using a Eulerian passive tracer technique. Results show that the new inlet produced a significant decrease in flushing time (approximately 35% reduction under summer wind conditions and 20% reduction under winter wind conditions). Maps of exposure time reflect the local changes in circulation and flushing.     

Role of Late Winter–Spring Wind Influencing Summer Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

We examined the processes influencing summer hypoxia in the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay. The analysis was based on the Chesapeake Bay Monitoring Program data collected between 1985 and 2007. Self-organizing map (SOM) analysis indicates that bottom water dissolved oxygen (DO) starts to be depleted in the upper mesohaline area during late spring, and hypoxia expands down-estuary by early summer. The seasonal hypoxia in the bay appears to be related to multiple variables, (e.g., river discharge, nutrient loading, stratification, phytoplankton biomass, and wind condition), but most of them are intercorrelated. The winter–spring Susquehanna River flow contributes to not only spring–summer buoyancy effects on estuarine circulation dynamics but also nutrient loading from the land-promoting phytoplankton growth. In addition, we found that summer hypoxia is significantly correlated with the late winter–spring (February–April) northeasterly–southwesterly (NE–SW) wind. Based on winter–spring (January–May) conditions, a predictive tool was developed to forecast summer (June–August) hypoxia using river discharge and NE–SW wind. We hypothesized that the late winter–spring wind pattern may affect the transport of spring bloom biomass to the western shoal or the deep channel of the bay that either alleviates or increases the summer hypoxic volume in the midbay region, respectively. To examine this hypothesis, residual flow fields were analyzed using a hydrodynamic ocean model (Regional Ocean Modeling System; ROMS) between 2000 and 2003, two hydrologically similar years but years with different wind conditions during the spring bloom period. Simulation model results suggest that relatively larger amounts of organic matter could be transported into the deep channel in 2003 (severe hypoxia; frequent northeasterly wind) than 2000 (moderate hypoxia; frequent southwesterly wind).     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.     

Tropical Storm and Hurricane wind effects on water level, salinity, and sediment transport in the river-influenced Atchafalaya-Vermilion Bay System, Louisiana, USA

Changes in circulation, water level, salinity, suspended sediments, and sediment flux resulted from Tropical Storm Frances and Hurricane Georges in the Vermilion-Atchafalaya Bay region during September 1998. Tropical Storm Frances made landfall near Port Aransas, Texas, 400 km west of the study area, and yet the strong and long-lived southeasterly winds resulted in the highest water levels and salinity values of the year at one station in West Cote Blanche Bay. Water levels were abnormally high across this coastal bay system, although salinity impacts varied spatially. Over 24 h, salinity increased from 5 to 20 psu at Site 1 on the east side of West Cote Blanche Bay. Abnormally high salinities were recorded in Atchafalaya Bay but not at stations in Vermilion Bay. On September 28, 1998, Hurricane Georges made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, 240 km east of the study area. On the west side of the storm, wind stress was from the north and maximum winds locally reached 14 m s⁻¹. The wind forcing and physical responses of the bay system were analogous to those experienced during a winter cold-front passage. During the strong, north wind stress period, coastal water levels fell, salinity decreased, and sediment-laden bay water was transported onto the inner shelf. As the north wind stress subsided, a pulse of relatively saline water entered Vermilion Bay through Southwest Pass increasing salinity from 5 to 20 psu over a 24-h period. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-14 reflectance imagery revealed the regional impacts of wind-wave resuspension and the bay-shelf exchange of waters. During both storm events, suspended solid concentrations increased by an order of magnitude from 75 to over 750 mg l⁻¹. The measurements demonstrated that even remote storm systems can have marked impacts on the physical processes that affect ecological processes in shallow coastal bay systems.     

On the spatial structure of currents across the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal

The Chesapeake and Delaware (C&;D) Canal is a man-made waterway connecting two of the largest estuaries on the east coast of the United States: Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. A set of current meter data collected during April–May 1975 along two cross-sections of the C&;D Canal was used to examine the spatial distributions of the currents at tidal and subtidal time scales. The different responses of the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays to tidal and wind forcing produce significant differences in sea level fluctuations between the two ends of the canal. These alongcanal surface slopes produce significant barotropic current fluctuations at both tidal (semidiurnal and diurnal) and subtidal (2-d to 3-d) time scales. Under the influence of bottom friction, the barotropic currents near the surface are stronger than those at depth, but these currents do not exhibit significant lateral variations across the canal. On the other hand, the long-term flow in the canal exhibits strong lateral variability with eastward flow off the south shore of the canal and westward flow off the north shore of the canal. The lateral structure of the long-term flow may carry significant implications for the long-term exchange of material between the two bays.     

Inter‐annual variability of southerly winds in a coastal area of the Atacama Desert: implications for the export of aeolian sediments to the adjacent marine environment

The analysis of the aeolian content of marine cores collected off the coast of the Atacama Desert (Mejillones Bay, Chile) suggests that marine sediments can record inter‐annual to inter‐decadal variations in the regional southerly winds responsible for particle entrainment at the surface of the nearby desert. However, the establishment of a simple and direct correlation between the sediment and wind records is complicated by the difference of time scales between the erosion and accumulation processes. The aim of this work is to: (i) assess the inter‐annual variability of the surface winds responsible for the sand movements; and (ii) determine whether the integration over periods of several months completely smoothes the rapid changes in characteristics of the transported and deposited aeolian material. To accomplish this aim, 14 years of 10 m hourly wind speed, measured at the Cerro Moreno (Antofagasta) Airport between 1991 and 2003 and at the Orica Station between 2000 and 2004, were analyzed. For each year, the wind speed statistical distribution can be represented by a combination of two to three Weibull functions. Winds of the lowest Weibull mode are too weak to move the sand grains at the surface of the pampa; this is not the case for the intermediate mode and especially for the highest speed mode which are able to erode the arid surface and transport particles to the bay. In each individual year of the period of study, the highest speed mode only accounted for a limited number of strong erosion events. Quantitative analysis of the distribution of the friction velocities and of their impact on erosion using a saltation model suggests that, although all wind speeds above threshold produce erosion events, values around 0·45 m sec^?1 contribute less to the erosion flux. This gap allows separation of the erosion events into low and high saltation modes. The correlation (r = 0·997) between the importance of the third Weibull mode and the extent of higher rate saltation indicates that the inter‐annual variability of the erosion at the surface of the pampa, as well as the transport of coarse particles (>100 μm), are directly related to inter‐annual variations in the prevalence of the strongest winds. Finally, a transport and deposition model is used to assess the possible impact of the wind inter‐annual variability on the deposition flux of mineral particles in the bay. The results suggest that inter‐annual differences in the wind speed distributions have a quantifiable effect on the intensity and size‐distribution of this deposition flux. This observation suggests that a detailed analysis of the sediment cores collected from the bay could be used for reconstructing the inter‐annual variability of past winds.     

渤海湾西岸CZ01钻孔沉积物粒度端元分析及其气候—海平面变化响应*

沧州地区位于海陆交互的渤海湾西岸,易受到海平面变化和极端气候事件的影响,对于全球气候变化的响应十分敏感。应用非参数化端元分析模型将沧州地区CZ01钻孔中更新世晚期以来的沉积物粒度划分出6个端元并分析其物源,结合已有地质记录,揭示不同时间尺度下各端元对气候—海平面变化的响应。结果表明: (1)EM1(5.01 μm)主要为远源的风尘输入,EM2(13.18 μm)和EM3(39.81 μm)为古黄河所携带的沉积物,EM4(69.18 μm)和EM5(138.04 μm)为海相沉积物,EM6(275.42 μm)可能指示古洪水等极端气候事件。(2)深海氧同位素(MIS)Ⅰ 阶段,气候温暖湿润,EM4+5含量指示渤海海平面整体呈波动上升的趋势并逐渐接近现代海平面。该阶段内由于11.5 ka BP左右的新仙女木事件以及5.1 ka BP左右冷干事件的发生,渤海海平面在稳定上升状态后出现停滞或小幅下降的现象; 而在9.5 ka BP、7.5 ka BP、5.8 ka BP和1.7 ka BP左右,东亚夏季风增强导致降水增加,渤海海平面升高。(3)MIS Ⅵ 阶段北半球气候冷干,150~132 ka BP左右因喜马拉雅运动减弱造成的区域沉降中心转移致使渤海海面升高。MIS Ⅴ 阶段气候波动剧烈: 在间冰期暖期(5a、5c和5e)气候暖湿,渤海海平面上升; 而MIS5b和5d时期渤海海面高度较低。MIS Ⅳ 阶段较MIS5a末期海平面突然下降后趋于稳定,期间出现若干次小规模海侵事件,可能与东亚夏季风频繁变化有关。MIS Ⅲ 阶段至末次冰盛期海平面大幅度下降且存在周期性升降变化,并在46 ka BP左右出现大规模海侵事件。MIS Ⅱ 阶段较MIS Ⅲ 阶段海平面出现小幅度下降,为低海平面时期; 伴随15 ka BP左右冰盛期的结束,东亚夏季风增强,海平面开始上升。渤海海平面180 ka BP以来的变化记录与北半球乃至全球范围内的地质记录存在一致性,与太阳辐射波动引起的冰川消融及东亚夏季风变化密切相关。     

Lateral Baroclinic Forcing Enhances Sediment Transport from Shallows to Channel in an Estuary

We investigate the dynamics governing exchange of sediment between estuarine shallows and the channel based on field measurements at eight stations spanning the interface between the channel and the extensive eastern shoals of South San Francisco Bay. The study site is characterized by longitudinally homogeneous bathymetry and a straight channel, with friction more important than the Coriolis forcing. Data were collected for 3 weeks in the winter and 4 weeks in the late summer of 2009, to capture a range of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions. The greatest sediment transport from shallows to channel occurred during a pair of strong, late-summer wind events, with westerly winds exceeding 10 m/s for more than 24 h. A combination of wind-driven barotropic return flow and lateral baroclinic circulation caused the transport. The lateral density gradient was produced by differences in temperature and suspended sediment concentration (SSC). During the wind events, SSC-induced vertical density stratification limited turbulent mixing at slack tides in the shallows, increasing the potential for two-layer exchange. The temperature- and SSC-induced lateral density gradient was comparable in strength to salinity-induced gradients in South Bay produced by seasonal freshwater inflows, but shorter in duration. In the absence of a lateral density gradient, suspended sediment flux at the channel slope was directed towards the shallows, both in winter and during summer sea breeze conditions, indicating the importance of baroclinically driven exchange to supply of sediment from the shallows to the channel in South San Francisco Bay and systems with similar bathymetry.     

Wave-forced resuspension of upper Chesapeake Bay muds

Moored instruments were used to make observations of near bottom currents, waves, temperature, salinity, and turbidity at shallow (3.5 m and 5.5 m depth) dredged sediment disposal sites in upper Chesapeake Bay during the winters of 1990 and 1991 to investigate time-varying characteristics of resuspension processes over extended periods. Resulting time series data show the variability of two components of the suspended sediment concentration field. Background suspended sediment concentrations varied inversely with salinity and in direct relation to Susquehanna River flow. Muddy bottom sediments were also resuspended locally by both tidal currents and wind-wave forcing, resulting in short-term increases and decreases in suspended concentration, with higher peak concentrations near the bottom. In both years, episodes of wave-forced resuspension dominated tidal resuspension on an individual event basis, exceeding most tidal resuspension peaks by a factor of 3 to 5. The winds that generated the waves responsible for the observed resuspension events were not optimal for wave generation, however. Application of a simple wind-wave model showed that much greater wave-forced resuspension than that observed might be generated under the proper conditions. The consolidated sediments investigated in 1990 were less susceptible to both tidal and wave-forced resuspension than the recently deposited sediments investigated in 1991. There was also some indication that wave-forced resuspension increased erodibility of the bottom sediments on a short-term basis. Wave-forced resuspension is implicated as an important part of sediment transport processes in much of Chesapeake Bay. Its role in deeper, narrower, and more tidally energetic estuaries is not as clear, and should be investigated on a case-by-case basis.     

Numerical simulation of the exchange process within shallow bar-built estuary

Great South Bay is the largest of a series of interconnected bar-built estuaries on the south shore of Long Island, New York. The depth-averaged barotropic motions in the bay were simulated by using a finite element two-dimensional numerical model. The barotropic motions were driven with astronomical tides, subtidal coastal sea level fluctuations induced by longshore wind stress over the adjacent continental shelf, and local wind stress over the surface of the bay. There was vigorous exchange at tidal frequencies between the western part of Great South Bay and the surrounding waters, but the tidal exchange was heavily damped in the eastern part of the bay. At subtidal frequencies the volume exchange did not exhibit significant attenuation in the interior of the bay. In the eastern part of Great South Bay, the magnitude of the subtidal volume exchange could exceed that of the tidal exchange. The principal mode of subtidal volume exchange was found to be associated with subtidal sea level fluctuations along the coast, which characteristically caused a filling or emptying of the system from all open boundaries of Great South Bay.     

Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay

Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down) water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case. Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to redistribute mass.     

Shoreline Energy and Sea Level Dynamics in Lower Chesapeake Bay: History and Patterns

A long-term (1948–2010) shoreward energy history of upper tidal shorelines in lower Chesapeake Bay was developed using a simple calculation of kinetic energy from corresponding wind and tide data. These data were primarily used to determine the likelihood of shoreline energy increases coincident with local sea level rise. Total annual shoreward energy ranged from 620 kJ/m of shoreline in 1950 to 17,785 kJ/m of shoreline in 2009. No clear linear trends are apparent, but mean annual energy shows an increase from 2,732 kJ/m before 1982 to 6,414 kJ/m since then. This increase in mean energy was accompanied by more numerous spikes of comparatively higher annual energy. Shoreward energy delivered to lower Chesapeake Bay’s upper tidal shorelines was enabled by an increasing amount of time per year that tidal height exceeds mean high water, accompanied by increasing heights of tidal anomalies. An index termed the Hydrologic Burden was developed that incorporates the combination of time and tidal height that demonstrates this increasing trend. Although opportunities for greater shoreward energy increased as the Hydrologic Burden increased, and even though there is evidence that greater energy was delivered to the shorelines during the latter time series, energy per hour delivery was shown not to have increased, and may have decreased, due to a steady reduction in average wind speed in lower Chesapeake Bay since the mid-1980s. Energy delivery in lower Chesapeake Bay was primarily from the northeast, and energy delivery over the time series is shown to organize symmetrically around a point between the northeast and north–northeast directions. This is evidence of a self-organizational phenomenon that transcends changes in local wind and tide dynamics.     

Habitat Affects Survival of Translocated Bay Scallops, Argopecten irradians concentricus (Say 1822), in Lower Chesapeake Bay

Bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) populations existed in Chesapeake Bay until 1933, when they declined dramatically due to a loss of seagrass habitat. Since then, there have been no documented populations within the Bay. However, some anecdotal observations of live bay scallops within the lower Bay suggest that restoration of the bay scallop is feasible. We therefore tested whether translocated adults of the southern bay scallop, Argopecten irradians concentricus, could survive during the reproductive season in vegetated and unvegetated habitats of the Lynnhaven River sub-estuary of lower Chesapeake Bay in the absence of predation. Manipulative field experiments evaluated survival of translocated, caged adult scallops in eelgrass Zostera marina, macroalgae Gracilaria spp., oyster shell, and rubble plots at three locations. After a 3-week experimental period, scallop survival was high in vegetated habitats, ranging from 98% in their preferred habitat, Z. marina, to 90% in Gracilaria spp. Survival in Z. marina was significantly higher than that in rubble (76%) and oyster shell (78%). These findings indicate that reproductive individuals can survive in vegetated habitats of lower Chesapeake Bay when protected from predators and that establishment of bay scallop populations within Chesapeake Bay may be viable.     

Estuarine Ecosystem Response Captured Using a Synoptic Climatology

Estuarine and coastal ecosystems respond strongly to proximate climate forcing. In this study, we present a regional, synoptic climatology as an approach to classify weather patterns that generate interannual variability in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Synoptic climatology is a method that classifies sea level pressure data into distinct patterns representing common weather features for a specified region. A synoptic climatology was developed for the eastern United States and used to quantify surface conditions affecting Chesapeake Bay during wet and dry years. In a synthesis analysis, several mechanisms were identified that explained the link between weather patterns and ecosystem structure, principal among them is the delivery of freshwater to the Bay during spring. Wet and dry years were characterized by shifts in biogeography of the Chesapeake Bay. The shifts resulted from habitat changes and trophic interactions and included the timing and magnitude of the spring phytoplankton bloom, the distribution/abundance of mesozooplankton and gelatinous zooplankton, and juvenile indices of fish. Synoptic climatology resolved regional weather variability at a spatial scale not strongly controlled by larger-scale climate indices and explained ecosystem responses in Chesapeake Bay.