GULLY—SPECIFIC DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN CHINA

Techniques of gully-specific debris flow hazard assessment developed in four periods since the end of the1980s have been discussed in the present paper. The improvement for the empirical assessment method is the sectional-ized function transformation for the factor value, rather than the classified logical transformation. The theoretical equationof the gully-specific debris flow hazard is expressed as the definite integral of an exponential function and its numericalsolution is expressed by the Poisson Limit Equation. Current methods for assessment of debris flow hazard in China arestill valid and practical. The further work should be put on the study of the reliability (or uncertainty) of the techniques.For the future, we should give a high priority to the relationship between debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occur-rence, make more developments of prediction model on debris flow magnitude, so as to finally reach the goal of assessingthe hazard of debris flow by theoretical model, and realize both actuality assessment and prediction appraisal of debris flow.     

Numerical analysis of emergency river restoration scheme for Qingping mega debris flow

The mega debris flow occurred on August 13 th 2010 in Qingping town,China(hereafter called ’8.13’ Debris Flow) have done great damage to the local habitants as well as to the re-construction projects in the quake-hit areas,and the channel-fill deposit problem caused by the debris flow was the most destructive.Moreover,it is of high possibility that an even severe deposit problem would reappear and result in worse consequences.In order to maximize risk reduction of this problem,relevant departments of the government established a series of emergency river restoration schemes,for which the numerical analysis is an important procedure to evaluate and determine the optimized one.This study presents a numerical analysis by applying a twodimensional debris flow model combined with a relevant water-sediment model to simulate the deposit during the progress of the debris flow,and to calculate and analyze the river flow field under both the present condition and different restoration conditions.The results show that the debris flow model,which takes the confluence of the Wenjia Gully to the main river into account,could simulate the deposit process quite well.In the reproduced debris flow from the simulation of the ’8.13’ Debris Flow,the original river flow path has switched to a relatively lower place just along the right bank with a high speed of near 7m.s-1 after being blocked by the deposit,which is highly hazardous.To prevent this hazard,a recommended scheme is derived through inter-comparison of different restoration conditions.It shows that the recommended scheme is able to reduce the water level and as well to regulate the flow path.Based on the given conditions of the mainstream and the tributary confluence for the simulated ’8.13’ Debris Flow,when encountering a debris flow with deposit volume less than 0.5 million m3,the river channel can endure a 20-year return flood;however,when the deposit volume increases to 2 million m3,the flood capacity of the river will be greatly impacted and the scheme becomes invalid.The recommended scheme supported by the present study has been applied to the emergency river restoration after this mega-debris flow.     

Disasters and regional risks of debris flow in Zhaotong Prefecture,Yunnan Province,China

Zhaotong Prefecture has the area of 22,434km², where there are more than 330 debris flow ravines, with the average spatial density of 14.7 spots per 1,000km². According to the method of evaluation on the regional risk of debris flow, this study has come to the following conclusions: Qiaojia County-risk grade V; Yongshan, Yanjin, Ludian, Daguan, Weixin and Zhenxiong counties-risk grade III; Yiliang, Suijiang-Shuifu and Zhaotong City-risk grade II. Compared with the field investigation, the result is satisfied.     

Uncertainty analysis on zonation maps of debris flow hazard in Yunnan Province, China

lINTRODUCTIONDebrisflowisoneofthesixprimarynaturalhaz-ards,whichinfluencesthedevelopmentofnationalso-cietyandeconomyinChina.Itsseverityissecondarytoflood,draught,earthquake,typhoon,butstrongerthanbiologicalhazards.Morethan3ooOodebrisflowcreeksarescatteredihthewholemountainousarea,andes-PeciallyconcentratedinsouthwestofChina.DebrisFlowInformationSystem(DFIS)operatedbytheInsti-tuteofMountainHazardsandEnvironmentoftheChi-neseAcademyofScienceshasalreadyestablishedadatabaseandcataloguec…     

Evaluation of a traditional method for peak flow discharge estimation for floods in the Wenchuan Earthquake area,Sichuan Province,China

Peak discharge of flood in small mountainous watershed is usually calculated using the "Rainstorm–runoff calculation method in small watersheds in Sichuan Province"(RRM). This study evaluated the RRM calculation using real-time monitored rainfall and hydrologic data from a small watershed in the Wenchuan Earthquake area of Sichuan Province, China. The results indicated that the discharge values given by the RRM are commonly overestimating the measured discharge. The overestimation rate was discussed and empirical equations were proposed for improving RRM estimations, based on the relationship between calculated and measured discharge values at different watershed scales(2, 30, and 40 km2), under different rainfall probabilities(0.97–0.5, 0.5–0.2, and 0.2–0.002), and for different rainfall durations(0–6, 6–24, and 24 h). The results of this study help contribute to the understanding of water floods formation and help provide more accurate estimations of peak flow discharge in small watersheds in the Wenchuan Earthquake area.     

Investigation and Assessment of Landslides and Debris Flows in Sichuan Province of China by Remote Sensing Technique

Taking TM images, ETM images, SPOT images, aerial photos and other remote sensing data as fundamental sources, this research makes a thorough investigation on landslides and debris flows in Sichuan Province, China, using the method of manual interpretation and taking topography maps as references after the processes of terrain correction, spectral matching, and image mosaic. And then, the spatial characteristics of landslides and debris flows in the year of 2005 are assessed and made into figures. The environmental factors which induce landslides and debris flows such as slope, vegetation coverage, lithology, rainfall and so on are obtained by GIS spatial analysis method. Finally, the relationships of landslides or debris flows with some environmental factors are analyzed based on the grade of each environmental factor. The results indicate： 1） The landslides and debris flows are mainly in the eastern and southern area of Sichuan Province, however, there are few landslides and debris flows in the western particularly the northwestern Sichuan. 2） The landslides and debris flows of Sichuan Province are mostly located in the regions with small slope degree. The occurring rate of debris flow reduces with the increase of the vegetation coverage degree, but the vegetation coverage degree has little to do with the occurrence of landslide. The more rainfall a place has, the easier the landslides and debris flows take place.     

The catastrophe forecast of the annual sidement transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China

On the basis of the observational data on the annual sediment transport by debris flow in recent 8 years, appling the catastrophe forecast method of Grey System Theory, this study has established the catastrophe model of the annual sediment transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully. It has forecasted the next potential catastrophic year in which the annual sediment transport will be over the catastrophic. threshold 2 million m3. Furthermore, it has introduced the "equal dimension-new information model", which makes the forecast be done continuously.     

Ecological suitability assessment and introduction experiment on Rosa damascena trigintipetala in Sichuan Province,China

This study comprehensively considered the climate, soil, terrain, and land-use type conditions suitable for Rosa damascena trigintipetala and further established an ecological suitability evaluation model of R. damascena trigintipetala in Sichuan Province, China, based on geographic information systems(GIS) and Agro-Ecological Zone(AEZ)models; then we assessed the different ecological suitability grades for this species in Sichuan Province of China and summarized the suitable land areas and spatial distribution pattern for R. damascena trigintipetala. The results show that the suitable areas(which contain highly suitable, generally suitable, and critically suitable areas) for R. damascena trigintipetala are 307.268×104 hm2, which accounts for 6.34% of the total provincial area. Results also indicate that shrub land and open forest land are the major land-use types suitable for R. damascena trigintipetala, with the suitable areas of 303.162×104hm2(6.25% of the total provincial area). An introduction test was conducted in one of the suitable areas, Xichang City, which demonstrated that R.damascena trigintipetala grows well at theexperimental sites. The quality of rose oil extracted from R. damascena trigintipetala planted in Xichang meets the Bulgaria Rose Oil Standard, thus verifying the accuracy and reliability of the ecological suitability assessment results.     

Developing a risk assessment system for gas tunnel disasters in China

Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.     

Development of a region-partitioning method for debris flow susceptibility mapping

Debris flow susceptibility mapping(DFSM) has been reported in many studies, however, the irrational use of the same conditioning factor system for DFSM in regional-scale has not been thoroughly resolved. In this paper, a region-partitioning method that is based on the topographic characteristics of watershed units was developed with the objective of establishing multiple conditioning factor systems for regional-scale DFSM. First, watershed units were selected as the mapping units and created throughout the entire research area. Four topographical factors, namely, elevation, slope, aspect and relative height difference, were selected as the basis for clustering watershed units. The k-means clustering analysis was used to cluster the watershed units according to their topographic characteristics to partition the study area into several parts. Then, the information gain ratio method was used to filter out superfluous factors to establish conditioning factor systems in each region for the subsequent debris flow susceptibility modeling. Last, a debris flow susceptibility map of the whole study area was acquired by merging the maps from all parts. DFSM of Yongji County in Jilin Province, China was selected as a case study, and the analytical hierarchy process method was used to conduct a comparative analysis to evaluate the performance of the region-partitioning method. The area under curve(AUC) values showed that the partitioning of the study area into two parts improved the prediction rate from 0.812 to 0.916. The results demonstrate that the region-partitioning method on the basis of topographic characteristics of watershed units can realize more reasonable regional-scale DFSM. Hence, the developed region-partitioning method can be used as a guide for regional-scale DFSM to mitigate the imminent debris flow risk.     

Outburst risk of barrier lakes in Sichuan,China

34 barrier lakes induced by earthquake have been formed by wedged debris on the river channels after a massive earthquake happening on May 12 in Sichuan, China. Among them, the Tangjiashan Barrier Lake is the largest one. It faces very urgent risk of dam breaking when water level reaches the top and begins overflow in case of storm rainfalls and continually aftershocks, threatening already devastated cities and villages with about 1.5 million people downstream. The outburst of a similar barrier lake occurred in the Minjiang River in 1933, causing a catastrophic flood. Risk analysis indicates that not all barrier lakes are highly dangerous. Only those lakes with very high dams and water to be filled up in short period need to be dealt with immediately.     

Dynamic characteristics and hazard assessment of debris flow in Shangyao valley

Shangyao valley is located in Jin’an village of Songpan in Sichuan. Many material sources are accumulated in valleys. The debris flow will be triggered by a rain storm with short-duration and strong intensity, which may threaten people’s lives and property in downstream. Based on the investigation,the formation conditions of debris flow and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed and its hazard assessment is investigated. Research shows that there is the potential cause of debris flow in Shangyao valley,which is of the middle risk class.     

Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing

The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow     

Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing

The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow     

Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system: an example of application in Aizi Valley,China

In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. Currently, the key issues are the imbalance between the limited lifespan of equipment, the relatively long period between the recurrences of such hazards, and the wide range of critical rainfall that trigger these disasters. This paper attempts to provide a stepwise multi-parameter debris flow warning system after taking into account the shortcomings observed in other warning systems. The whole system is divided into five stages. Different warning levels can be issued based on the critical rainfall thresholds. Monitoring starts when early warning is issued and it continues with debris flow near warning, triggering warning, movement warning and hazard warning stages. For early warning, historical archives of earthquake and drought are used to choose a debris flow-susceptible site for further monitoring. Secondly, weather forecasts provide an alert of possible near warning. Hazardous precipitation, model calculation and debris flow initiation tests, pore pressure sensors and water content sensors are combined to check the critical rainfall and to publically announce a triggering warning. In the final two stages, equipment such as rainfall gauges, flow stage sensors, vibration sensors, low sound sensors and infrasound meters are used to assess movement processes and issue hazard warnings. In addition to these warnings, community-based knowledge and information is also obtained and discussed in detail. The proposed stepwise, multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system has been applied in Aizi valley China which continuously monitors the debris flow activities.     

Debris flow susceptibility assessment using a probabilistic approach: A case study in the Longchi area,Sichuan province,China

The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes after the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows or shallow landslides. A total of 48 debris flows, all triggered by heavy rainfall on 13th August 20l0, are described in this paper. Field investigation, supported by remote sensing image interpretation, was conducted to interpret the co-seismic landslides in the debris flow gullies. Specific characteristics of the study area such as slope, aspect, elevation, channel gradient, lithology, and gully density were selected for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. A score was given to all the debris flow gullies based on the probability of debris flow occurrence for the selected factors. In order to get the contribution of the different factors, principal component analyses were applied. A comprehensive score was obtained for the 48 debris flow gullies which enabled us to make a susceptibility map for debris flows with three classes. Twenty-two gullies have a high susceptibility, twenty gullies show a moderate susceptibility and six gullies have a low susceptibility for debris flows.     

Effects of loose deposits on debris flow processes in the Aizi Valley,southwest China

Loose deposits, rainfall and topography are three key factors that triggering debris flows.However, few studies have investigated the effects of loose deposits on the whole debris flow process.On June 28, 2012, a catastrophic debris flow occurred in the Aizi Valley, resulting in 40 deaths.The Aizi Valley is located in the Lower Jinsha River,southwestern Sichuan Province, China. The Aizi Valley debris flow has been selected as a case for addressing loose deposits effects on the whole debris flow process through remote sensing, field investigation and field experiments. Remote sensing interpretation and laboratory experiments were used to obtain the distribution and characteristics of the loose deposits, respectively. A field experiment was conducted to explore the mechanics of slope debris flows, and another field investigation was conducted to obtain the processes of debris flow formation, movement and amplification. The results showed that loose deposits preparation, slope debris flow initiation,gully debris flow confluence and valley debris flow amplification were dominated by the loose deposits.Antecedent droughts and earthquake activities may have increased the potential for loose soil sources in the Aizi Valley, which laid the foundation for debris flow formation. Slope debris flow initiated under rainfall, and the increase in the water content as well as the pore water pressure of the loose deposits were the key factors affecting slope failure. The nine gully debris flows converged in the valley, and the peak discharge was amplified 3.3 times due to a blockage and outburst caused by a large boulder. The results may help in predicting and assessing regional debris flows in dry-hot and seismic-prone areas based on loose deposits, especially considering large boulders.     

The disastrous 23 July 2009 debris flow in Xiangshui Gully, Kangding County, Southwestern China

On 23 July 2009, a catastrophic debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall in Xiangshui gully, Kangding county, southwestern China. This debris flow originating shortly after a rainstorm with an intensity of 28 mm per hour transported a total volume of more than 480×103 m3 debris, depositing the poorly sorted sediment including boulders up to 2-3 m in diameter both onto an existing debris fans and into the river. Our primary objective for this study was to analyze the characteristics of the triggering ra...     

A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method（M-CF） for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment：A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method（FW）, certainty coefficient method（CF） and geomorphic information entropy method（GI）. Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method（M-CF） to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.     

The formation of the Wulipo landslide and the resulting debris flow in Dujiangyan City,China

The Wulipo landslide, triggered by heavy rainfall on July 10, 2013, transformed into debris flow,resulted in the destruction of 12 houses, 44 deaths, and 117 missing. Our systematic investigation has led to the following results and to a new understanding about the formation and evolution process of this hazard. The fundamental factors of the formation of the landslide are a high-steep free surface at the front of the slide mass and the sandstone-mudstone mixed stratum structure of the slope. The inducing factor of the landslide is hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressure change caused by heavy continuous rainfall. The geological mechanical model of the landslide can be summarized as "instability-translational slide-tension fracture-collapse" and the formation mechanism as "translational landslide induced by heavy rainfall". The total volume of the landslide is 124.6×104 m3, and 16.3% of the sliding mass was dropped down from the cliff and transformed into debris flow during the sliding process, which enlarged 46.7% of the original sliding deposit area. The final accumulation area is found to be 9.2×104 m2. The hazard is a typical example of a disaster chain involving landslide and its induced debris flow. The concealment and disaster chain effect is the main reason for the heavy damage. In future risk assessment, it is suggested to enhance the research onpotential landslide identification for weakly intercalated slopes. By considering the influence of the behaviors of landslide-induced debris flow, the disaster area could be determined more reasonably.