Sediment flux sensitivity to climate change: A case study in the Longchuanjiang catchment of the upper Yangtze River, China

Climate change may affect the sediment generation and transportation processes and the consequent sediment flux in a river. The sensitivity of suspended sediment flux to climate change in the Longchuanjiang catchment is investigated with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). ANNs were calibrated and validated using sediment flux data from 1960 to 1990 during which the influence from human activities was relatively stable. The established ANN is used to predict the responses of sediment flux to 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature up to − 1, 1, 2 and 3 °C and by scaling the baseline precipitation by +/− 10% and +/− 20%. The results indicated when temperature remains unchanged, an increase in rainfall will lead to a rise in sediment flux; when rainfall level remains unchanged, an increase in temperature is likely to result in a decrease in sediment flux. Same percentage of changes in rainfall and temperature are likely to trigger higher responses in wetter months than in drier months. However, it is the combination of the change in temperature and rainfall that determines the change of sediment flux in a river. Higher sediment flux is expected to appear under wetter and warmer climate, when higher transport capacity is accompanied by higher erosion rate.     

Trends of sea level variations in the South China Sea from merged altimetry data

In this study, more than 13 yr of merged altimetry sea level anomalies (SLA) data were used to analyze the trends of sea level variations in the South China Sea (SCS). The result shows that the mean sea level over the SCS has a rise rate of 11.3 mm/yr during 1993–2000 and a fall rate of 11.8 mm/yr during 2001–2005. The geographical distribution of the sea level variations over the SCS is asymmetric with a pronounced variation existing in the deep water. The trends of thermosteric sea level variations were also examined using Ishii data and MITgcm assimilation data. The result indicates that the thermal change of the upper layer of the SCS has a significant contribution to the sea level variations. Heat budget analysis suggests that heat advection may be a key factor influencing the thermal change. Apart from thermal contribution, the effect of water exchange on the sea level variations was also studied.     

Growth patterns of the last ice age coral terraces at Huon Peninsula

At Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, prolific coral growth during the last-glacial was episodic and in response to a series of sea-level rises. The resultant step-like coral terraces are currently situated from 20 m up to 140 m above sea-level due to continuous tectonic uplift of the Peninsula. The sea-level rises were in response to periodic partial disintegration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets associated with severe climate swings and occurred within decadal timescales. The relatively rapid 15 m to 35 m rise in sea-levels exposed new head-room for corals to colonize. The resulting terrace structures contain individual corals that do not appear to have grown sequentially in time and with elevation. Additionally, following the peak, sea level fell relatively slowly over several thousand years and corals grew and filled in the flanks of the terrace such that younger corals now occupy lower elevations. We have labeled these structures “pack-up” reefs. This is in contrast to coral terraces formed during major sea-level rises from glacial to interglacial or glacial to interstadial transitions where the rate of sea level rise is commensurate with coral growth rates and corals can keep up with sea-level rise by growing on top of each other in a time orderly sequence. Deriving sea-level information from pack-up terraces is difficult and is likely to be ambiguous. The periodic fluctuations in climate were associated with atmospheric radiocarbon swings that seem to have varied smoothly with time. The same corals that show a scatter in stratigraphic temporal ordering appear regularly distributed in time and with radiocarbon content attesting to the veracity of the age measurements and at the same time confirm the disordered distribution of corals in “pack-up” type reefs.     

The evolution of the Dutch and Belgian coasts and the role of sand supply from the North Sea

During the Holocene, the Dutch and Belgian coasts evolved, controlled by post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise, spatially varying vertical subsurface motions (glacio-isostatic crustal rebound, compaction, tectonics) and spatially varying sediment supply (mainly marine sand). The marine sand supply changed as the tidal dynamics and the wave climate changed due to the changing geometry and depth of the North Sea during the Holocene transgression. These changes influenced the coastal evolution. This study compares the results of separate numerical model calculations of the large-scale Holocene tide- and wave-induced sand transport in the southern North Sea with existing geological data of the Dutch and Belgian large-scale coastal evolution, resulting in a qualitatively good correlation. The large-scale coastal evolution is interpreted in terms of the oceanographical forcing, and an integrated conceptual model of the Holocene evolution of the Dutch and Belgian coasts is proposed. The large-scale wave-driven bed-load transport was an order of magnitude smaller than the tidal transports. The modelled tidal transport direction changed from onshore before 6 ka BP to along shore at present for the Zeeland and Holland coasts; the influence that waves may have had on the tidal transport by suspending sand gradually decreased. This change in direction caused the modelled tidal sand supply to the coast to decrease for the Belgian, Zeeland and Holland coasts. While the offshore area of the Holland coast remained a zone of (small) deposition due to decreasing northward sand transports, the offshore area of the Zeeland coast became increasingly erosional after 6 ka BP due to the encroaching divergence of the tidal transports. Due to uncertainty in the magnitude of the modelled sand transports, but robustness in the transport patterns, the focus is on the qualitative rather than the quantitative model results. When compared with the trend of closure, expansion and later erosion and reopening of the coast, the above decrease in sand supply must have been slow enough compared with the decrease in sea-level rise to cause a temporary sand surplus which decayed to a slight deficit as the decrease in supply and the rise in sea level continued. The Wadden Sea coast exchanged little or no sand with the adjacent deeper North Sea throughout the Holocene.     

Stepwise decreases of the Huanghe (Yellow River) sediment load (1950–2005): Impacts of climate change and human activities

The sediment load delivered from the Huanghe (Yellow River) to the sea has decreased sharply to 0.15 × 10⁹ metric tons per year (0.15 Gt/yr) between 2000 and 2005, and now represents only 14% of the widely cited estimate of 1.08 Gt/yr. The river seems to be reverting to the pristine levels characteristic of the middle Holocene, prior to human intervention. Datasets from 1950 to 2005 from four key gauging stations in the main stream reveal distinct stepwise decreases in sediment load, which are attributed to both natural and anthropogenic impacts over the past 56 yr. Completions of two reservoirs, Liujiaxia (1968) and Longyangxia (1985), in the upper reaches of the river and their joint operations have resulted in stepwise decreases in sediment load coming from the upper reaches. Effective soil conservation practices in the middle reaches since the late 1970s, combined with the operation of the Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi reservoirs, have also caused stepwise decreases in sediment load at Huayuankou in the middle reaches, but the decrease differs from that observed in the upper reaches. Decrease in precipitation is responsible for 30% of the decrease in sediment load at Huayuankou, while the remaining 70% is ascribed to human activities in the river basin, of which soil conservation practices contribute 40% to the total decrease. Sediment retention within reservoirs accounts for 20% of the total sediment load decrease, although there was notable sediment retention within the Xiaolangdi reservoir from 2000 to 2005. The remaining 10% of the decrease in sediment load is a result of the operation of reservoirs in the upper reaches. In the lower reaches, 20% of the sediment passing Huayuankou has been lost as a result of channel deposition and water abstraction. Soil conservation practices and the operation of reservoirs have lowered the content of coarser sediment (D > 0.05 mm) at Huayuankou, and reduced channel deposition in the lower reaches. In contrast, sediment loss owing to water abstraction in the lower reaches has increased considerably as water consumption for agricultural needs has increased. Therefore, the combined effects of climate change and human activities in the upper, middle, and lower reaches have resulted in stepwise decreases in the sediment load delivered from the Huanghe to the sea. The Huanghe provides an excellent example of the altered river systems impacted by climate change and extensive human activities over the past 56 yr. Further dramatic decreases in sediment load and water discharge in the Huanghe will trigger profound geological, morphological, ecological, and biogeochemical responses in the estuary, delta, and coastal sea.     

Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992–2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for  55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as − 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.     

Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.     

Reef-island topography and the vulnerability of atolls to sea-level rise

Low-lying reef islands on the rim of atolls are perceived as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise. Three effects are inferred: erosion of the shoreline, inundation of low-lying areas, and saline intrusion into the freshwater lens. Regional reconstruction of sea-level trends, supplementing the short observational instrumental record, indicates that monthly mean sea level is rising in the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. This paper reviews the morphology and substrate characteristics of reef islands on Indo-Pacific atolls, and summarises their topography. On most atolls across this region, there is an oceanward ridge built by waves to a height of around 3 m above MSL; in a few cases these are topped by wind-blown dunes. The prominence of these ridges, together with radiocarbon dating and multi-temporal studies of shoreline position, indicate net accretion rather than long-term erosion on most of these oceanward shores. Less prominent lagoonward ridges occur, but their morphology and continuity are atoll-specific, being a function of the processes operating in each lagoon. Low-lying central areas are a feature of many islands, often locally excavated for production of taro. These lower-lying areas are already subject to inundation, which seems certain to increase as the sea rises. Tropical storms play an important role in the geomorphology of reef islands in those regions where they are experienced. Topographical differences, as well as features such as emergence of the reef flat and the stability of the substrate, mean that islands differ in terms of their susceptibility to sea-level rise. Further assessment of variations in shoreline vulnerability based on topography and substrate could form the basis for enhancing the natural resilience of these islands.     

Simulations of the impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon with modern and mid-Holocene orbital forcings

The impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon in modern (0 kyr) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr) climates are investigated by contrasting simulations with and without dynamic vegetation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.According to a dynamic index of South Asian summer monsoon, it has been found that the strengths of interannual and interdecadal westerly wind tend not to be affected by the dynamic vegetation over South Asia in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. However, based on a dynamic index of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, the strengths of tropical westerly wind and south–north cross-equatorial transport are weakened over the tropical western Pacific in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests the impact of dynamic vegetation is more obvious for the WNP monsoon than for the South Asian monsoon. Also, it implies the impact of dynamic vegetation on the interannual and interdecadal circulations is distinctly regional.Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows that the impact of dynamic vegetation can remodel the leading correlation mode (SVD1) between precipitation and surface temperature. All of the interannual and interdecadal precipitation patterns with and without the impact of dynamic vegetation are associated with positive anomalies over India and southeastern China. However, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (keep) the positive interannual temperature anomalies of SVD1 over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce the anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and WNP for 6 kyr. Furthermore, the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies always dominate the tropics for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests La Niña-like SST anomalies are the important mechanism to induce the above-mentioned precipitation pattern no matter whether for 0 kyr or for 6 kyr. For the interdecadal surface temperature pattern of SVD1, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (reduce) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce (keep) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 6 kyr. Also, all of the above implies the impact of dynamic vegetation is a mechanism to induce the long-term change of leading interannual and interdecadal surface temperature pattern over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and/or WNP.     

Land water storage contribution to sea level from GRACE geoid data over 2003–2006

Seasonal and inter-annual change in land water storage (expressed in terms of water volume change) over 27 large river basins worldwide are estimated from monthly GRACE geoids solutions computed at GFZ from February 2003 to February 2006. The largest annual water volume change is found in the Amazon basin, followed by the Parana, Ob, Orinoco, Tocantins, Niger, Congo, Ganges, Mekong, and Brahmaputra. In terms of trend over the 3-year period, positive and negative values are observed but in a number of cases computed trends are at the noise level. However significant negative trends are found in the Amazon, Ganges, Mississippi, Nile, Parana, and Zambezi basins, indicating water mass loss over that period. Positive trends (water mass gain) are marginally significant. We have computed the land water contribution to sea level change. On average over the 3-year time span, we find that the net effect is positive (net loss of water in terrestrial reservoirs), on the order of 0.19 +/− 0.06 mm/yr. If sustained over a longer time span than considered here, such a value may become comparable to the ice sheets contribution to sea level rise.     

Benefits to Studies of Global Sea Level Changes from Future Space Gravity Missions

Global sea level rise will present a major scientific, environmental and socio-economic challenge during the 21st century. This paper reviews the main oceanographic and geophysical processes which contribute to sea level change, with particular emphasis on the ability of space gravity missions to contribute to an enhancement of our understanding of the various processes, and ultimately to a better understanding of sea level change itself. Of special importance is the need to understand better the ocean circulation, and the contribution of ocean thermal expansion to sea level change.     

Spatially distributed modelling of soil erosion and sediment yield at regional scales in Spain

Initiated by the need to quantify erosion rates and the impacts of global changes on erosion, several attempts have been made to apply erosion models at regional scales. However, these models have often been directed towards on-site soil erosion estimates, emphasising sheet and rill erosion processes, and disregarding gully erosion, channel erosion and sediment transport. These models are therefore of limited use for the assessment of sediment yield, off-site impacts of erosion, and for the development of environmental management to control these impacts at regional scale. This study analyses and compares three spatially distributed models for the prediction of soil erosion and/or sediment yield at regional scales: the WATEM-SEDEM model that is based on the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in combination with a sediment transport equation, the physics-based Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment model (PESERA), and a newly developed Spatially Distributed Scoring model (SPADS). The three models were applied to 61 Spanish drainage basins and model predictions were evaluated against data on measured reservoir sedimentation rates. Global data sets on land use, climate, elevation and soil characteristics were used as model input for WATEM-SEDEM and SPADS, whereas published soil erosion estimates of PESERA at 1 km² resolution were used directly. SPADS and WATEM-SEDEM provided best results after separate calibration for basins with a Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) higher than 5% and those with an SDR lower than 5%. In this way, SPADS explained 67% of variation in sediment yield, while WATEM-SEDEM explained 48% of the variation. PESERA represents a promising alternative to the use of empirical models at the regional scale as it can be applied to very diverse environments with little calibration. However, PESERA provides soil erosion rates and not sediment yield estimates. For most basins PESERA soil erosion rates vary between fifty and close to zero percent of total sediment yield. Two major factors may explain this discrepancy between modelled soil erosion rates and measured sediment yield. First, it may be that PESERA underestimates soil erosion under Mediterranean conditions, although PESERA soil erosion rates are of the same order of magnitude as erosion rates measured in erosion plot studies. Second, gully-, river channel erosion and sediment transport processes may be much more important than sheet- and rill erosion for regional scale sediment yield in these environments. These issues therefore require further attention in future model development. Although spatially lumped models provide better predictions of sediment yield at the basin scale, and while validation of the predicted spatial patterns of sources and sinks of sediment requires further research, spatially distributed models are expected to be of value to support management decisions regarding the assessment of on-site and off-site impacts of erosion at the regional scale.     

Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal, the Nepal Himalayas

Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations, mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973, the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200–5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements, we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400–5500 m ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 m on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus, it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100–300 m between 1973 and 1991, followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. An increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 m at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal.     

Present and near-future global sea-level changes

Values between 1.0 and 1.5 mm/yr, often quoted in the literature for the present-day rate of eustatic sea-level rise, have been obtained in many cases by averaging records of tide-gauge stations, after having omitted areas of glacio-isostatic or tectonic uplift, though including areas of subsidence. This approach results in an overestimation of the sea-level rise, which is increased by the fact that, for geological reasons and human-induced factors, subsidence is expected to occur more frequently than uplift in oceanic and coastal areas.In the absence of absolutely stable areas in the world, a new approach is proposed, which shows that on the Atlantic coasts of Europe, when land movements are removed, the sea-level rise during the last century has been only 4–6 cm, i.e. two to three times smaller than the estimation claimed by most authors. This value is consitent with current computations of the recent effects on sea level of the thermal expansion of the ocean water (2–5 cm) and of the melting of small glaciers (1.4–5 cm).Estimations of possible sea-level changes during the next century diverge with different authors, varying from a sea-level drop of 7 cm to a sea-level rise of over 3.5 m. There are some problems however with the assumptions made and some feedback phenomena have not yet been taken into account. In addition, the relationship between the atmospheric CO₂ content, temperature and sea level is far from being demonstrated for the recent past.     

Late Quaternary evolution of fluvial sediment composition: a modeling case study of the River Meuse

This paper addresses the influence of external forcing (changes in tectonics, sea level and climate) on the downstream and long-term (10³–10⁵ years) evolution of sediment composition along a fluvial longitudinal profile. The River Meuse served as a case study for a semi 2-D forward-modelling approach to simulate the downstream sediment transport in the 200- to 0-ka period. This has been related to bulk geochemical properties of the tributary catchments to quantify the bulk composition of the sediment load in the main river. The model was used to test the hypothesis that long-term fluvial dynamics influences sediment composition.The simulation exercise showed that long-term fluvial dynamics can yield systematic temporal changes in fluvial sediment composition, especially in high-relief areas. We tested a scenario of minimal discharges and maximum hillslope erosion during cold glacial periods (weathering-limited sediment supply), alternating with maximal discharges and minimal hillslope erosion during prolonged interstadials or interglacials (transport-limited sediment supply). This scenario largely reproduced the timing and direction of measured changes in the bulk and clay geochemistry of fine-grained sediments, which were deposited in the River Meuse lower reach from 13 to 0 ka. However, it failed to reproduce the measured amplitude of change, which was five to six times larger than the modelled amplitude. This suggests that climate-dependent changes in weathering intensity of rocks and saprolite in the source areas were more important and that aeolian inputs from outside the drainage basin have co-determined the sediment composition.     

Late Weichselian to Holocene paleoenvironments in the Barents Sea

Paleoceanographic changes since the Late Weichselian have been studied in three sediment cores raised from shelf depressions along a north–south transect across the central Barents Sea. AMS radiocarbon dating offers a resolution of several hundred years for the Holocene. The results of lithological and micropaleontological study reveal the response of the Barents Sea to global climatic changes and Atlantic water inflow. Four evolutionary stages were distinguished. The older sediments are moraine deposits. The destruction of the Barents Sea ice sheet during the beginning of the deglaciation in response to climate warming and sea level rise resulted in proximal glaciomarine sedimentation. Then, the retreat of the glacier front to archipelagoes during the main phase of deglaciation caused meltwater discharge and restricted iceberg calving. Fine-grained distal glaciomarine sediments were deposited from periodic near-bottom nepheloid flows and the area was almost permanently covered with sea ice. The dramatic change in paleoenvironment occurred near the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary when normal marine conditions ultimately established resulting in a sharp increase of biological productivity. This event was diachronous and started prior to 10 ¹⁴C ka BP in the southern and about 9.2 ¹⁴C ka in the northern Barents Sea. Variations in sediment supply, paleoproductivity, sea-ice conditions, and Atlantic water inflow controlled paleoenvironmental changes during the Holocene.     

Sea level budget over 2003–2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry,satellite altimetry and Argo

From the IPCC 4th Assessment Report published in 2007, ocean thermal expansion contributed by ～ 50% to the 3.1 mm/yr observed global mean sea level rise during the 1993–2003 decade, the remaining rate of rise being essentially explained by shrinking of land ice. Recently published results suggest that since about 2003, ocean thermal expansion change, based on the newly deployed Argo system, is showing a plateau while sea level is still rising, although at a reduced rate (～ 2.5 mm/yr). Using space gravimetry observations from GRACE, we show that recent years sea level rise can be mostly explained by an increase of the mass of the oceans. Estimating GRACE-based ice sheet mass balance and using published estimates for glaciers melting, we further show that ocean mass increase since 2003 results by about half from an enhanced contribution of the polar ice sheets – compared to the previous decade – and half from mountain glaciers melting. Taking also into account the small GRACE-based contribution from continental waters (< 0.2 mm/yr), we find a total ocean mass contribution of ～ 2 mm/yr over 2003–2008. Such a value represents ～ 80% of the altimetry-based rate of sea level rise over that period. We next estimate the steric sea level (i.e., ocean thermal expansion plus salinity effects) contribution from: (1) the difference between altimetry-based sea level and ocean mass change and (2) Argo data. Inferred steric sea level rate from (1) (～ 0.3 mm/yr over 2003–2008) agrees well with the Argo-based value also estimated here (0.37 mm/yr over 2004–2008). Furthermore, the sea level budget approach presented in this study allows us to constrain independent estimates of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) correction applied to GRACE-based ocean and ice sheet mass changes, as well as of glaciers melting. Values for the GIA correction and glacier contribution needed to close the sea level budget and explain GRACE-based mass estimates over the recent years agree well with totally independent determinations.     

Sea level forcing in the Mediterranean Sea between 1960 and 2000

Sea level trends and inter-annual variability in the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1960–2000 is explored by comparing observations from tide gauges with sea level hindcasts from a barotropic 2D circulation model, and two full primitive equation 3D ocean circulation models, a regional one and the Mediterranean component of a global one,. In the 2D model, 50% of the sea level variance was found to result from the wind and atmospheric pressure forcing. In the 3D models, 20% of the sea level variance was explained by the steric effects. The sea level residuals at the tide gauges locations, calculated by subtraction of the 2D model output from the sea level observations are significantly correlated (r = 0.4) with the steric signals from the 3D models. After the removal of the atmospheric and the steric contributions the tide-gauge sea level records indicate a period where sea level was stable (1960–1975) and a period where sea level was rising (1975–2000) with rates in the range 1.1–1.8 mm/yr. A part of the residual trend can be explained by the contribution of local land movements (0.3 mm/yr) while its major part indicates a global signal, probably mass addition, appearing after 1975.     

Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

The general features of alpine permafrost such as spatial distribution, temperatures, ice content, permafrost and active-layer thickness within the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia are described. The modern thermal state of permafrost reflects climatic processes during the twentieth century when the average rise in mean annual air temperature was 0.006–0.032 °C/yr for the different parts of the Tien Shan. Geothermal observations during the last 30 yr indicate an increase in permafrost temperatures from 0.3 °C up to 0.6 °C. At the same time, the average active-layer thickness increased by 23% in comparison to the early 1970s. The long-term records of air temperature and snow cover from the Tien Shan's high-mountain weather stations allow reconstruction of the thermal state of permafrost dynamics during the last century. The modeling estimation shows that the altitudinal lower boundary of permafrost distribution has shifted by about 150–200 m upward during the twentieth century. During the same period, the area of permafrost distribution within two river basins in the Northern Tien Shan decreased approximately by 18%. Both geothermal observations and modeling indicate more favorable conditions for permafrost occurrences and preservation in the coarse blocky material, where the ice-rich permafrost could still be stable even when the mean annual air temperatures exceeds 0 °C.