基于YUE-HASM方法的气温与 降水时空变化趋势

气温和降水作为最主要的气候要素,其时空变化趋势将直接影响着各种生态系统的结构、服务功能及空间分布变化。经验证,YUE-HASM方法较普通Kriging方法模拟精度高。根据江西省及其邻域范围内1961~2000年的100个气象观测站点每天的气温和降水的基础观测数据、DEM数据,运用YUE-HASM方法分别对江西省20世纪60、70、80和90年代平均气温和平均降水的时空变化趋势进行数字模拟分析。研究结果表明:在1961~2000年的40年间,江西省平均气温和平均降水在时空分布上存在显著变化,60年代为相对暖干时段、70和80年代为相对冷湿时段,而90年代则为暖湿时段。     

基于改进HASM方法的中国日照百分率的模拟

日照百分率作为研究日照时数及太阳辐射等的重要因素之一,其模拟结果的好坏,直接关系到相关领域的研究应用。而高精度曲面建模方法（HASM）是近几年发展起来的用于生态建模的高精度曲面模拟方法。首先对现有的HASM进行改进,给出建立在完整理论基础之上、精度更高的曲面建模方法,并记为HASM.MOD;以高斯合成曲面为数值试验对象,验证HASM与HASM.MOD的模拟精度;最后,根据全国1951-2010 年752 个气象站点的月平均日照百分率数据,运用HASM.MOD研究近60 年月平均日照百分率的分布状况,同时比较了HASM.MOD、HASM、Kriging 和IDW法的插值精度。数值试验和实例验证结果表明,HASM.MOD的模拟精度最高。用该方法所提供的日照百分率数据可作为基础地理数据供相关研究应用。     

RCP4.5情景下淮河流域气候变化的高分辨率模拟

利用CCLM高分辨率区域气候模式RCP4.5情景预估数据与淮河流域1960-2005年日尺度气象观测资料,对比分析模式在试验期（1960-2005年）和预估期（2006-2040年）的模拟能力。结果表明：①试验期模式数据能较准确地模拟流域逐月平均温度时间变化特征,相关系数达0.99（通过95%置信度检验）;日均温空间分布特征相关系数达0.72;但在南部高海拔地区（安徽省霍山县和金寨县）精度不高;极端最高（低）气温的空间相关性达0.77（0.88）。②模式在试验期模拟的逐月平均降水量总体趋势与实测值变化一致,相关系数达0.63（通过95%置信度检验）;对干旱的模拟与观测数据存在一定误差,但整体趋势与其一致;年均降水量和极端强降水空间分布相关系数分别达0.90和0.93,模拟效果较好;整体上,模式对温度的模拟效果要好于降水模拟。③RCP4.5情景下,空间尺度上淮河流域未来温度和降水与观测期相比变幅小,时间尺度上年均降水量无显著变化,平均气温年际变化率约0.21℃/10a,极端高温持续增长,低温持续下降。     

基于HASM的中国森林植被碳储量空间分布模拟

当前区域尺度上森林碳储量估算主要依据森林资源清查数据,整个过程不仅消耗大量人力、物力,而且十分耗时,严重影响了森林碳储量估算的时效性。针对这一问题,本文提出了基于HASM的森林植被碳储量模拟方法,该方法以全球植被动态模型LPJ-Guess 输出的植被碳储量为驱动场,以森林清查样地数据为精度控制点,模拟生成中国陆地森林碳储量分布情况。研究以第7 次中国森林资源清查数据作为精度控制点数据源,同时作为本文模拟方法的精度验证。结果表明,中国森林碳储量为9.2405 Pg,考虑到森林资源清查是基于一定的郁闭度进行的,因此HASM模拟的结果与根据森林资源清查结果计算得出的7.8115 Pg 相比更符合实际情况,西南山区和东北林区是中国森林最主要的碳库,其碳储量分别占中国森林植被碳储量的39.82%和20.46%。同时与之前(1975-1995 年) 相比具有较大幅度的增长,表明近几十年来中国坚持大规模植树造林的碳汇效果显著。同时也表明基于HASM的森林植被碳储量空间分布模拟方法是有效的,模拟结果合理且精度较高,表明该方法在全球尺度上森林植被碳储量模拟及其它生态系统中碳储量模拟中具有应用潜力。     

1951-2010年中国季平均降水高精度曲面建模分析

利用1951-2010年中国711个气象观测站的月降水资料,对多年季平均降水根据中国农业气候类型进行分区模拟。针对中国降水特点,首先分析了影响各分区降水的地理、地形因素及局部地形因素,利用多项式回归和逐步回归的方法对各分区降水进行了趋势拟合;在此基础上,采用改进的高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法,对各模拟区域去掉趋势后的残差进行迭代修正,并比较验证了模拟效果。同时,为保证HASM在边界附近的模拟精度,根据区域内站点间的距离,对每一分区设置一个缓冲区,将HASM实际插值区域扩展为缓冲区内的部分。模拟结果表明:HASM方法的模拟精度在不同区域不同季节内均比经典的插值方法模拟精度高。利用上述方法分析了同一季节各分区降水的分布特点,并模拟了不同季节内多年平均降水的空间分布状况,模拟结果符合我国降水的实际分布特点。     

中国生态过渡带分布的空间识别及情景模拟

在全球变化及其生态环境效应研究中,如何对生态过渡带的空间分布格局及变化情景进行空间定量识别和模拟分析,对揭示气候变化和人类活动对全球变化的响应及反馈具有指示性意义.在对HLZ模型进行修正和拓展的基础上,建立了生态过渡带类型的空间识别方法.并基于1981-2010年的全国782个气候观测站点数据,在实现全国生态过渡带类型...     

中国土地覆盖时空变化未来情景分析

在对HLZ (Holdridge life zone) 分类系统与土地覆盖类型分类系统之间的差异性进行对比分析的基础上,根据土地覆盖类型与HLZ生态系统类型的最大对应概率,构建了基于栅格的土地覆盖边际转换模型。采用基于HadCM3 A1FI、A2a、B2a等三种未来气候变化情景数据模拟获得的中国HLZ生态系统时空变化的系列栅格数据,运行模型后获得相应时段中国未来土地覆盖时空变化情景系列数据。引入土地覆盖类型景观指数及平均中心系列模型和构造平均中心偏移距离及偏移方向的计算模型,对中国未来土地覆盖的景观指数变化及其平均中心的偏移距离、偏移方向及偏移趋势进行综合分析。基于HadCM3 A1FI、A2a、B2a三种情景模拟结果分析表明：在2000~2099年间耕地、草地、湿地、水域、冰川雪被等土地覆盖类型面积逐渐减少,林地、建设用地、荒漠等土地覆盖类型面积逐渐增加,沙漠面积有所减少。其中,林地增加速度最快 (平均每10年增加2.34%),裸露岩石减少速度最快 (平均每10年减少2.38%)。     

全球平均气温未来情景的降尺度分析

如何提高全球气候模拟数据的分辨率,以满足全球、区域乃至局地陆地生态系统全球变化响应的定量分析,是当今全球气候变化研究的核心内容之一。在全球尺度上,本文利用全球气象观测站点的气候数据和DEM 数据,对全球年平均气温与纬度和海拔高程之间相关性进行回归分析,建立全球气候降尺度空间模拟的统计转移函数,并与高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法进行集成,从而实现IPCC GCM HadCM3 的模拟数据从3.75° × 2.5°到 0.125° × 0.125°的降尺度处理。研究结果表明,在3 种气候情景的T1-T4 时段内,格陵兰岛平均气温在0℃以下的区域和南极洲平均气温在-35℃以下的区域均呈逐渐缩减趋势,赤道至南北回归线之间的平均气温大于40℃以上的区域呈逐渐增加趋势。其中,A1Fi 情景的平均气温上升速度最快,A2 情景次之,B2 情景的平均气温上升速度最慢。构建降尺度方法有效地将IPCC GCMs的粗分辨率的气候情景数据降尺度转换成高分辨率的气候数据,并克服和弥补了目前IPCC GCMs的模拟数据因分辨率低而不能对区域乃至局地气候变化的细节及趋势进行刻画的缺陷。     

中国气温未来情景的降尺度模拟

由于GCM模拟的气温数据分辨率不高,很难用于区域尺度上各种生态系统的模拟。本文基于长时间序列（1964～2007年）的全国气温观测数据,结合经纬度数据、以及DEM、坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据,利用空间统计方法,在构建年平均气温降尺度模型的基础上,运用高精度曲面建模（HASM）方法对HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2...     

基于HASM-SSOR模型的近60年来中国气温与降水变化趋势模拟

为了改善HASM模型计算速度慢及存储量大等问题,提出了一种快速有效算法(HASM-SSOR),并以高斯合成曲面为例验证了该方法的有效性。利用全国752站1951—2010年的气象观测资料,对近60年的平均气温、降水分别采用多元回归与HASM-SSOR相结合的方法及多项式回归与HASM-SSOR相结合的方法进行模拟与分析;近60年平均气温、降水拟合的复相关系数分别为0.9923、0.9987;并对1951-2010年各年代际的平均气温、降水的变化趋势进行拟合与分析,发现各年代际气温变化并不一致,全国平均气温呈上升趋势,平均上升率为0.35℃/10a,全国降水平均变化率为9.4mm/10a,无明显的变化趋势。     

基于多重网格求解的土壤属性高精度曲面建模

高精度曲面建模(HASM)是近几年发展起来的可用于地理信息系统和生态建模的一种较高精度的曲面建模方法.本研究选择南方红壤丘陵区江西省吉安市辖区、吉安县和泰和县为研究区,采集150个表层土壤(0～20cm)样品,分别随机选取60、90和120个点作为模拟数据集,90、60和30个点作为验证数据集,基于多重网格(MG)作为...     

未来气候变化对淮河流域径流深的影响

本文运用多元回归方法,建立有关气候-径流深的数学模型,并用该模型预测在未来气候变化的15种可能情景下淮河三个代表子流域径流深的变化。结果表明:年径流深随年降水量的增加而增加,随年均温度的升高而减少;不同流域对各种气候变化的响应存在着明显的差异,反映出整个淮河流域不同自然地理条件的影响;不同季节的径流深对各种气候变化的响应也存在明显的差异,体现了季风气候对径流的影响。文章还特别关注了暖干天气组合下径流深的变化,提出这种极端气候情景对工农业生产和国民经济建设有着严重的负面影响     

Spatial variation in annual actual evapotranspiration of terrestrial ecosystems in China: Results from eddy covariance measurements

Understanding the spatial variation in annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) and its influencing factors is crucial for a better understanding of hydrological processes and water resources management. By synthesizing ecosystem-level observations of eddy-covariance flux sites in China (a total of 61 sites), we constructed the most complete AET dataset in China up to now. Based on this dataset, we quantified the statistic characteristics of AET and water budgets (defined as the ratio of AET to annual mean precipitation (MAP), AET/MAP) of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Results showed that AET differed significantly among both different vegetation types and climate types in China, with overall mean AET of 534.7±232.8 mm yr^-1. AET/MAP also differed significantly among different climate types, but there were no distinct differences in AET/MAP values across vegetation types, with mean AET/MAP of 0.82±0.28 for non-irrigated ecosystems. We further investigated how the main climatic factors and vegetation attributes control the spatial variation in AET. Our findings revealed that the spatial variation of AET in China was closely correlated with the geographical patterns of climate and vegetation, in which the effects of total annual net radiation (R _n), MAP and mean annual air temperature (MAT) were dominant. Thus, we proposed an empirical equation to describe the spatial patterns of AET in China, which could explain about 84% of the spatial variation in AET of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Based on the constructed dataset, we also evaluated the uncertainties of five published global evapotranspiration products in simulating site-specific AET in China. Results showed that large biases in site-specific AET values existed for all five global evapotranspiration products, which indicated that it is necessary to involve more observation data of China in their parameterization or validation, while our AET dataset would provide a data source for it.     

Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in China from 1961 to 2005简

Net primary productivity （NPP） is the structure and function of the ecosystem. NPP can most important index that represents the be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models （DGVM）, which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environ- mental change. This study simulated the NPP of China＇s ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator （IBIS） with data on climate, soil, and topography. The appli- cability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China＇s terrestrial ecosystems was verified first. Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simula- tions are generally within the limits of observations; the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models. The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing. Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China＇s natural ecosystem. We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005, when warming was particularly striking. The following are the results of the simulation. （1） Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease. （2） Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend. NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China, especially in the Loess Plateau. （3） Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP, seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease; the trend line was within the general level. （4） The re- gional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large. NPP declined in spring, summer, and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau.     

1961–2005年中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力模拟（英文）

Net primary productivity(NPP) is the most important index that represents the structure and function of the ecosystem.NPP can be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models(DGVM),which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environmental change.This study simulated the NPP of China's ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator(IBIS) with data on climate,soil,and topography.The applicability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China's terrestrial ecosystems was verified first.Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simulations are generally within the limits of observations;the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models.The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing.Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China's natural ecosystem.We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005,when warming was particularly striking.The following are the results of the simulation.(1) Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease.(2) Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend.NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China,especially in the Loess Plateau.(3) Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP,seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease;the trend line was within the general level.(4) The regional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large.NPP declined in spring,summer,and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau.     

中国降水未来情景的降尺度模拟

基于长时间序列(1964～2007年)的全国降水观测数据, 结合经纬度数据以及DEM、 坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据, 利用空间统计方法, 在构建年平均降水降尺度模型的基础 上, 运用高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法对经过降尺度分析的HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2a 三种情景T1～T4时段的全国未来平均降水进行高精度曲面模拟。模拟结果显示, 在T1～T4 时段内, A1Fi、A2a和B2a三种情景的全国平均降水均呈持续增加趋势。其中, 平均降水在 A1Fi情景中增加速度最快, B2a情景中增加速度最慢;A1Fi和A2a两种情景的平均降水均呈 加速增加趋势, 而B2a情景的平均降水则呈减速增加趋势。模拟结果表明, 本文构建的降尺 度模拟方法可以有效地实现IPCC GCM 的低分辨率的降水情景数据降尺度转换成高分辨率的 降水数据。     

省尺度森林植被碳储量空间分布模拟不确定性分析——以江西省为例（英文）

Forest vegetation carbon patterns are significant for evaluating carbon emission and accumulation. Many methods were used to simulate patterns of forest vegetation carbon stock in previous studies, however, uncertainty apparently existed between results of different methods, even estimates of same method in different studies. Three previous methods, including Atmosphere-vegetation interaction model 2(AVIM2), Kriging, Satellite-data Based Approach(SBA), and a new method, High Accuracy Surface Modeling(HASM), were used to simulate forest vegetation carbon stock patterns in Jiangxi Province in China. Cross-validation was used to evaluate methods. The uncertainty and applicability of the four methods on provincial scale were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that HASM had the highest accuracy, which improved by 50.66%, 33.37% and 28.58%, compared with AVIM2, Kriging and SBA, respectively. Uncertainty of simulation of forest biomass carbon stock was mainly derived from modeling error, sampling error and statistical error of forest area. Total forest carbon stock, carbon density and forest area of Jiangxi were 288.62 Tg, 3.06 kg/m~2 and 94.32×109 m~2 simulated by HASM, respectively.