基于粗糙集理论滑坡影响因子评价研究——以三峡库区青干河流域为例

运用地理信息系统和遥感技术,从LandsatTM遥感图像获取了一系列滑坡及其影响因子数据。结合粗糙集理论,对三峡库区秭归县青干河流域滑坡发生的影响因子进行了分析,提取了一组基本的滑坡影响条件属性因子,并导出了基于该因子集合的判断滑坡与非滑坡的规则集。研究结果表明,所选择的坡度、高程、斜坡类型、植被指数和岩石地层单元等5个条件属性因子对滑坡是重要的影响因素(核);由粗糙集生成的对预测滑坡相对较有价值的11条决策规则中,3条主要决策规则可作为滑坡影响因子的评价规则。     

Controlling parameter analyses and hazard mapping for earthquake-triggered landslides: an example from a square region in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China

On May 12, 2008, at 1428 hours (Beijing time), a catastrophic earthquake, with a magnitude of Ms 8.0, struck the Sichuan Province, China. About 200,000 landslides, as a secondary geological hazard associated with the earthquake, were triggered over a broad area. These landslides were of almost all types such as shallow, disrupted landslides, rock falls, deep-seated landslides, and rock avalanches. Some of these landslides damaged and destroyed large part of some towns, blocked roads, dammed rivers, and caused other serious damages. The purpose of this study is to detect correlations between landslide occurrence and the surface rupture plane, ground shaking conditions (measured by peak ground acceleration, PGA), lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, topographic position, and distance from drainages by using two indices, landslide area percentage (LAP) and the landslide number density (LND), based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and statistical analysis method in a square region (study area) of Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China. There were 5,096 landslides related with the earthquake which were delineated by visual interpretation and selected field checking throughout the study area. The total area (horizontal projection) of the 5,096 landslides is about 41.103 km². The LAP, which is defined as the percentage of the plane area affected by landslides, was 10.276 %, and the LND, means the number of landslides per square kilometers, was 12.74 landslides/km². Statistical analysis results show that both LAP and LND have a positive correlation with slope gradient and a negative correlation with distance from the surface rupture. However, the correlation between the occurrence of landslides with PGA, topographic position, and distance from drainages are uncertain, or has just a little positive correlation. The correlation between landslide and slope aspect also shows the effect of the directivity of the seismic wave. The Zbq formation had the most concentrated landslide activity with the LND value of 21.78 landslides/km _, ² and the ∈₁ q Gr. geological units had the highest LAP value. Furthermore, weight index (W _i) model is performed with a GIS platform to derive landslide hazard index map. The success rate of the model was 71.615 % and, thus, it was valid. In addition, comparison of five landslide controlling parameters’ influence on landslide occurrences was also carried out.     

Susceptibility and risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides based on Landslide Response Units in the Subao River basin,China

Generally, pixels are the basic unit for assessment of landslide susceptibility. However, even if the results facilitate the comparison, a pixel-based analysis does not clearly illustrate the distribution relationships. To eliminate this deficiency, the concept of the Landslide Response Unit (LRU) is proposed in this study, for which adjacent pixels that have similar properties are combined as a basic unit for susceptibility assessment. The Subao River basin, seriously impacted by the Wenchuan Earthquake, was selected as the study area, and three factors including slope gradient, slope aspect, and slope shape, which have a significant impact on landslides, were chosen to divide the basin into 25,984 LRUs. Then topographic, geologic, and distance factors were applied for the landslide susceptibility evaluation. The logistic regression method was used to establish the susceptibility assessing model by analyzing 2,000 susceptible LRUs and 2,000 un-susceptible LRUs. The model accuracy was defined in terms of the ROC curve value and the κ value, 0.531 and 0.84, respectively. The susceptibility of landslides was divided into low, moderate, high, and very high in Subao River basin, and 73% of historical landslides and all four new landslides are in the highly susceptible zone and very highly susceptible zones. Finally, the LRUs with houses, farmlands, and roads prone to sliding and burial hazard were assessed separately. On the basis of considering the potential movement directions of the LRUs, the result found that 1,001 and 835 LRUs probably would be destroyed by slope sliding and landslide burial, respectively.     

Seismic landslides hazard zoning based on the modified Newmark model: a case study from the Lushan earthquake,China

Seismically triggered landslides can cause great damage to the road construction in mountainous areas. The permanent displacement analysis based on Newmark sliding-block model can evaluate risk of these landslides from the perspective of deformation damage and overall failure probability of slopes. However, the sliding-block model does not consider the attenuation effect of the shear strength on the sliding surface during earthquake, causing the calculated value of Jibson method to be less than the actual value. Therefore, the Newmark model was modified by adding attenuation coefficients to the effective internal friction angle and the effective cohesion of geologic units. The landslide areal density was proposed for hazard zoning with the Wenchuan earthquake data. The results showed that the predicted values agreed well with the real distribution of the landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake. The proposed hazard zoning method in this paper can predict the severity of seismic landslides in consideration of the environmental changes in mountainous regions after the earthquake and provide support for the site selection in highly seismic areas.

     

区域崩塌滑坡的易发性评价--以四川省珙县为例

以四川省珙县为例，探讨了以GIS技术为支撑的区域崩塌、滑坡易发性评价的基本思路和技术路线；对评价指标的选取作了概括的分析和说明，认为其预测评价因素分为基本因素和诱发因素2大类；采用模糊综合评判方法对崩塌、滑坡的易发性进行评价，并在模糊综合评判方法的具体应用、评价指标隶属度的确定以及权重确定等方面也作了分析和阐述；对珙县区域崩塌、滑坡的易发程度讲行了评价，结果与实际较为吻合。     

Comparison of GA-BP and PSO-BP neural network models with initial BP model for rainfall-induced landslides risk assessment in regional scale: a case study in Sichuan,China

Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience.

     

安县雎水河流域泥石流特征及形成条件研究

雎水河流域位于四川省安县西北部,属于“5.12”汶川Ms 8.0级地震重灾区。地震发生后的5个汛期内,每年均有不同规模的群发性泥石流发生。其中以2013年7月9日的泥石流灾害最为严重,规模与灾情巨大,造成了惨重的损失。在对雎水河流域泥石流灾害现场调查的基础上,从泥石流形成的物源条件、地形地貌条件和水动力条件入手,以ArcGIS为平台,利用DEM数据,结合区域地质构造和地层岩性等信息,分析了泥石流的形成条件、分布特征及灾害特征。研究得出结论：①流域地形地貌为泥石流的形成和径流流通提供了极为有利的地形条件,固体松散物质补给量潜力巨大,为泥石流的形成提供了物源条件,大强度局地暴雨给泥石流的形成提供了强大的水动力条件。②研究区内泥石流主要分布在页岩等软弱地层区域以及断裂构造发育的区域,地形坡度陡、地形起伏度大的地区则更为密集。③流域内泥石流具有群发性、高频率、密度大、搬运能力强、崩滑流灾害相互叠加灾害效应放大的特征。     

Assessment of wetland fragmentation in the Tarim River basin, western China

The wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River are a rich area of biodiversity and natural resources in the inland arid region of China. However, this wetland area has decreased in size during the past several decades. Water quality and biodiversity has declined due to expanded agricultural activities since 1960s. Using remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) techniques, we investigated the dynamics, spatial patterns and fragmentation of the wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River from 1980 to 2000. We found that the total area of the wetlands was reduced by 45.8% and the density of the patches increased four times from 1980 to 1990. From 1990 to 2000, though the total area of the wetlands slightly increased the number of the patches increased three times and the density of the patches doubled. Based on the analyses of transition matrixes, diversity and fragmentation indexes, and spatial distribution alternation of the wetlands, we found the landscape diversity and fragmentation indices increased while wetland dominance index decreased dramatically. Among the wetland types, the areas of the river-channel, reservoir and pond wetlands increased while the areas of the lake and marsh wetlands decreased continuously.     

Multi-tracer investigation of river and groundwater interactions: a case study in Nalenggele River basin,northwest China

Environmental tracers (such as major ions, stable and radiogenic isotopes, and heat) monitored in natural waters provide valuable information for understanding the processes of river–groundwater interactions in arid areas. An integrated framework is presented for interpreting multi-tracer data (major ions, stable isotopes (²H, ¹⁸O), the radioactive isotope ²²²Rn, and heat) for delineating the river–groundwater interactions in Nalenggele River basin, northwest China. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were undertaken to estimate the bidirectional water exchange associated with small-scale interactions between groundwater and surface water. Along the river stretch, groundwater and river water exchange readily. From the high mountain zone to the alluvial fan, groundwater discharge to the river is detected by tracer methods and end-member mixing models, but the river has also been identified as a losing river using discharge measurements, i.e. discharge is bidirectional. On the delta-front of the alluvial fan and in the alluvial plain, in the downstream area, the characteristics of total dissolved solids values, ²²²Rn concentrations and δ¹⁸O values in the surface water, and patterns derived from a heat-tracing method, indicate that groundwater discharges into the river. With the environmental tracers, the processes of river–groundwater interaction have been identified in detail for better understanding of overall hydrogeological processes and of the impacts on water allocation policies.     

Field and numerical investigations on triggering mechanism in typical rainfall-induced shallow landslides: a case study in the Ren River catchment,China

Natural Hazards - A combined field hydrological monitoring and hydro-mechanical numerical investigation into the triggering mechanism in rainfall-induced shallow landslides was proposed and carried...     

Assessment on agricultural drought vulnerability in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy clustering iterative model

Drought is one of the major natural disasters occurring in China and causes severe impacts on agricultural production and food security. Therefore, agricultural drought vulnerability assessment has an important significance for reducing regional agricultural drought losses and drought disaster risks. In view of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment with the characteristics of multiple factors and uncertainty, we applied the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation framework to agricultural drought vulnerability model. The agricultural drought vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the multi-layer and multi-index fuzzy clustering iterative method, which can better reveal the drought vulnerability (including sensitivity and adaptation capacity). Furthermore, the cycle iterative algorithm was used to obtain the optimal index weight vector of a given accuracy by setting the objective function. It provides a new approach to weight determination of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment. In this study, agricultural drought vulnerability of 65 cities (as well as leagues and states) in the Yellow River basin was investigated using a fuzzy clustering iterative model and visualized by using GIS technique. The results showed clear differences and regularities among the spatial distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability of different regions. A large number of the regions in the basin consisted of those exhibiting high to very high vulnerability and were mainly distributed throughout Qinghai, Gansu, northern Shaanxi, and southern Shanxi, accounting for 46 % of the total assessment units. However, the regions exhibiting very high vulnerability were not significantly affected by droughts. Most of the regions exhibiting moderate vulnerability (21.5 % of the assessment units) were mainly concentrated among agricultural irrigation areas, where agriculture is highly sensitive to droughts, and drought occurrence in these regions will likely cause heavy losses in the future. The regions exhibiting slight to low vulnerability were relatively concentrated, accounting for 32.3 % of the assessment units, and were mainly distributed in the plains of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, where the economy was rather well developed and the agricultural production conditions were relatively stronger.     

富有机质页岩方解石脉成因、成岩模式与地质意义——以四川盆地南部龙马溪组为例

富有机质页岩中方解石脉体普遍发育,其形成过程和机制对成烃储层和成藏具有重要指示意义。本文以四川盆地南部龙马溪组为例,采用显微岩相学、阴极发光、原位微区电子探针、同位素地球化学及流体包裹体相结合的方法,分析其中的方解石脉成因,并结合地质背景探讨了成岩流体动态演化模式及其勘探意义。结果表明,研究区龙马溪组页岩发育三期方解石脉,第一期(Cal-1)近围岩或独立生长,形成于同生—准同生成岩阶段,是微生物还原作用的产物,具有富Fe、Mg、Al元素、贫Mn元素的特征,其δ~(13)C_(V-PDB)=0.06‰～4.53‰,δ~(18)O_(V-PDB)=-13.21‰～-10.79‰,n(~(87)Sr)/n(~(86)Sr)=0.719366～0.719689;第二期(Cal-2)形成于早成岩阶段,是有机质脱羧作用的产物,以相对富Fe、Mg、Mn、Al元素为特征,其δ~(13)C_(V-PDB)=-6.93‰～-0.08‰,δ~(18)O_(V-PDB)=-13.28‰～-10.05‰,n(~(87)Sr)/n(~(86)Sr)=0.719378～0.720688;第三期(Cal-3)远离围岩,形成于晚成岩阶段,是甲烷热氧化作用的产物,具有富Fe、Mg、Mn元素,不含Al元素的特征,其δ~(13)C_(V-PDB)=-19.00‰～-12.64‰,δ~(18)O_(V-PDB)=-9.08‰～-6.65‰,n(~(87)Sr)/n(~(86)Sr)=0.719855～0.721342。通过对方解石脉成因及流体来源刻画,结合龙马溪组页岩热演化史,三期方解石脉的成岩演化对页岩的储集空间具有改善作用,有利于页岩气的勘探开发。     

湖相碳酸盐岩沉积相分析：以四川盆地东北部下侏罗统自流井组大安寨段为例

正与生物有关的岩石往往与油气关系密切,其中介壳灰岩作为最为普遍的生物碳酸盐岩储层岩石类型,在全球范围内碳酸盐岩地层中均有发育,并在其中发现了多个大型油气藏(Ricardo et al., 2012;Daniel et al., 2015)。四川盆地下侏罗统自流井组大安寨段介壳灰岩作为四川盆地致密油主产层,因其厚度大,分布稳定,有机质含量高而著称,自上世     

Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).     

A new model (DRARCH) for assessing groundwater vulnerability to arsenic contamination at basin scale: a case study in Taiyuan basin,northern China

A modified DRASTIC model for groundwater vulnerability assessment (abbreviated as DRARCH model by combining the first letters of its six assessment indices) was proposed. It is essentially the specific application of DRASTIC model rather than a new model. Both natural hydrogeological conditions that prevent groundwater from contamination and important intrinsic hydrogeochemical properties of sediments in vadose zone that are related to the retardation of contaminants were considered as vulnerability indices. The DRARCH model consists of six indices: (1) Depth to the water table, (2) net Recharge, (3) Aquifer thickness, (4) Ratio of cumulative thickness of clay layers to total thickness of vadose zone, (5) Contaminant adsorption coefficient of sediment in vadose zone, and (6) Hydraulic conductivity of aquifer. The rating values and the weights of these vulnerability indices were obtained by contaminant transport simulation and factor analysis method respectively. Furthermore, the DRARCH model was applied to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability to arsenic contamination in Taiyuan basin, northern China, where groundwaters with high arsenic concentration occur in some localities. GIS-based mapping of groundwater vulnerability using this model indicates that the distribution of very high and high-vulnerability areas corresponds well to that of high-arsenic groundwaters. The DRARCH model is therefore reliable and useful for guiding groundwater environment management.     

四川雅安市雨城区降雨诱发滑坡临界值初步研究

四川省雅安市雨城区位于四川盆地西部,素有"雨城"之称。地质灾害以滑坡为主,且有群发性、浅层、规模小、降雨诱发的特点。作者分析了雨城区大量历史滑坡和降雨量数据,结合雨城区滑坡发育特点,选择3日(72h)内发生2个以上滑坡的点作为统计分析样本,进行不同阶段降雨量耦合关系分析,应用滑坡前3日累计降雨量与3日前15日累计降雨量,建立了滑坡发生与降雨量的统计关系:在雨城区,当前期无降雨、3日累计降雨量达到70mm时,将有滑坡发生;15日累计降雨量达到339mm时,也将可能出现滑坡。     

泥石流致灾因子敏感性分析——以四川都江堰龙溪河流域为例

泥石流是我国山区常见的地质灾害,为了定量研究泥石流灾害致灾因子的敏感性并确定各个致灾因子的权重大小,本文通过野外调查、数理统计法和层次分析法对龙溪河流域泥石流灾害的主要致灾因子进行定性规律分析和定量权重计算。结果表明:(1)泥石流灾害的发生与致灾因子的敏感性区间主要定性表现为:流域面积小于1 km²以内、高差在200～400 m范围内、距断层距离为0～2 km、山坡坡度30°～50°、岩性为砂岩、纵比降在400‰～600‰等,其泥石流发生与致灾因子具有相关性,且相关性较好;(2)选取了泥石流灾害致灾因子中的历史因子、地形因子、地质因子和降雨因子等4个一级因子以及流域面积、高程、相对高差、纵坡比、地层岩性等14个二级因子建立层次分析模型和计算判断矩阵,定量计算权重值得出降雨,流域面积,地层岩性,纵比降等四个因子对泥石流发生的敏感性最强。这一结论具有普遍性,可对该区域泥石流的易发性,危险性,风险性评价提供一定的数据参考意义。