Delphi process applied to the 921 earthquake relief for damaged bridges in Taiwan

This paper presents panel-developed, expert opinion-based suggestions, and a Delphi process for the development of an earthquake damage assessment and recovery model. The model was specifically designed for the disaster relief of the damaged bridges of the 921 earthquake in Taiwan and uses four major indices: emergency handling ability, administrative capability, budget execution responsibility, and law enforcement reliability. The 921 earthquake, which occurred on September 21, 1999, forced the Taiwanese government into an unprecedented relief operation consisting of emergency rescue and reconstruction. However, some of the relief measures reflected possible inefficiency in intergovernmental cooperation. Regarded as one of the most decisive relief measures in Taichung County before it was consolidated and upgraded to a municipality on 25 December, 2010, the rescue and reconstruction of the majorly damaged bridges in the county were taken as an example to analyze the differences in the earthquake relief policies between the central and local governments. Based on experts’ experiences in government affairs and the four major indices of the damage assessment and recovery model, the ongoing governmental restructuring policy is considered retrospectively not only at the central government level but also at the local government level; this would serve to improve preparedness for catastrophes and to solve possible problems in earthquake-related intergovernmental cooperation.     

Characterization of slip zone associated with the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake: X-ray CT image analyses and microstructural observations of the Taiwan Chelungpu fault

To characterize the fault-related rocks within the Chelungpu fault, we performed X-ray computed tomography (CT) image analyses and microstructural observations of Hole B core samples from the Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project. We identified the slip zone associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, within the black gouge zone in the shallowest major fault zone, by comparison with previous reports. The slip zone was characterized by low CT number, cataclastic (or ultracataclastic) texture, and high possibility to have experienced a mechanically fluidized state. Taking these characteristics and previous reports of frictional heating in the slip zone into consideration, we suggested that thermal pressurization was the most likely dynamic weakening mechanism during the earthquake.     

Reconnaissance report on geotechnical effects and structural damage caused by the 3 January 2017 Tripura earthquake,India

Natural Hazards - An earthquake of moment magnitude Mw 5.7 shook the northeastern region of India on 3 January 2017 at 14 h:39 min:0.5 s local time. The duration of the...     

Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

A disastrous earthquake rocked Taiwan on September 21, 1999, with magnitude M_L=7.3 and an epicenter near the small town of Chi-Chi in central Taiwan. The Chi-Chi earthquake triggered landslide on the dip slope at the Chiufengershan. In this study, a review of the topography and geology of this area was followed by field investigations. Laboratory testing was applied to understand the geomaterial composing the slope. Then, based on a series of limit equilibrium analyses, the failure mechanism of this landslide and the risk of the residual slope were studied.

According to the stability analyses, the pre-quake slope is quite stable, with factor of safety of 1.77 (dry) to 1.35 (full groundwater level); explaining why there is no written record of a landslide here for the past 100 years. In contrast, a back analysis shows that the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced dynamic loading is far more than the dip slope can sustain, due in part to the short distance to the epicenter. A Monte Carlo type probability analysis suggests that the residual slope is more dangerous than the pre-quake slope and needs more attention.     

基于台湾集集地震数据的CPT与SPT液化判别方法比较

利用集集地震静力触探试验(CPT)数据,对基于CPT测试的Robertson液化判别方法和Olsen方法进行了检验,两个方法对液化点判别成功率分别为82.61%和80.43%,对非液化点判别成功率分别为31.82%和44.32%。CPT液化判别方法对液化点判别基本可靠,但对非液化点判别准确性较差。对集集地震标准贯入试验(SPT)数据,美国地震工程研究中心(NCEER)推荐的SPT液化判别方法对液化点和非液化点判别成功率分别达到92.41%和94.35%。SPT方法判别成功率非常高,整体准确性远高于CPT方法。另一方面,CPT的土分类图可以同时反映土的种类与强度,甚至可以对集集地震液化土与非液化土进行区分。对于细粒土的液化初判,CPT土分类图也优于SPT方法中的黏粒含量指标。因此,土分类图是CPT的优势所在。     

台湾活断层研究与地震预测现况

<正>台湾海峡及福建被认为是地震极稀少的地区,但考察史料却可发现,公元1604年在泉州外海发生过震级达8.0的大地震。河北省唐山市附近也是地震极稀少的地区,但却在1976年发生了震级达7.6的大地震,造成重大灾害。这种地震的发生很难被掌握,因此,地震预测研究在近30年来倍受瞩目。     

Geological causes and geomorphological precursors of the Tsaoling landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

The Tsaoling landslide, one of the largest landslide areas in Taiwan, has been affected by catastrophic events triggered by rain or earthquakes six times since 1862. These landslides, including that caused by the 1999 earthquake, have essentially not been reactivated old slides, but were sequential new ones that developed upslope, retrogressively. The landslide area is underlain by Pliocene sandstone and shale to form a dip slope with a bedding plane, dipping uniformly at 14°. The slip surface of the 1999 landslide was smooth and planar, parallel to the bedding plane with a slightly stepped profile; it formed within thinly alternated beds of fine sandstone and shale with ripple lamination or in a shale bed. The shale is weathered by slaking and probably by sulfuric acid, which is inferred to be one of the major causes of the intermittent retrogressive development of the landslides. The weathering was likely accelerated by the removal of overlying beds during earlier landslides in 1941 and 1942. The top margin of the 1999 landslide, in plan view, coincided with a V-shaped scarplet, which can be clearly recognized on aerial photographs taken before the landslide. This geomorphological feature indicates that this landslide had already moved slightly before its 1999 occurrence, providing precursory evidences.     

四川汶川Ms 8 级地震重灾区地质灾害危险性评价和预测

在地质灾害调查和遥感解译资料的基础上,采用专家评判方法,利用GIS技术对重灾区14个县市的地质灾害进行快速定量的危险性评价,并在此基础上进行定性评价。强烈的地震诱发大量的次生地质灾害,主要为滑坡和崩塌,其次为地裂缝、泥石流和地面塌陷,局部有沙土液化,主要分布在龙门山断裂带附近及山区。总结了14个县市重灾区内地质灾害的分布特征,分析了地质灾害的形成条件,建立了地质灾害评价指标体系,确定了地质灾害危险性判别标准,进行了地质灾害危险区划。共划分为高危险区、中危险区、低危险区3个等级,在此基础上又划分了若干个亚区。对地质灾害的可能发生区带进行了分析预测,针对高危险区提出了相应的防治对策。     

四川汶川Ms 8 级地震重灾区地质灾害危险性评价和预测

在地质灾害调查和遥感解译资料的基础上,采用专家评判方法,利用GIS技术对重灾区14个县市的地质灾害进行快速定量的危险性评价,并在此基础上进行定性评价。强烈的地震诱发大量的次生地质灾害,主要为滑坡和崩塌,其次为地裂缝、泥石流和地面塌陷,局部有沙土液化,主要分布在龙门山断裂带附近及山区。总结了14个县市重灾区内地质灾害的分布特征,分析了地质灾害的形成条件,建立了地质灾害评价指标体系,确定了地质灾害危险性判别标准,进行了地质灾害危险区划。共划分为高危险区、中危险区、低危险区3个等级,在此基础上又划分了若干个亚区。对地质灾害的可能发生区带进行了分析预测,针对高危险区提出了相应的防治对策。     

Seismotectonic deformations related to the 2010 Maule earthquake at different stages of the seismic cycle from satellite geodetic observations

Doklady Earth Sciences - The interpretation of multiannual satellite geodetic observations after the 2010 Maule earthquake is given on the basis of the keyboard concept of the subduction region...     

A simulation of earthquake induced undrained pore pressure changes with bearing on some soil liquefaction observations following the 2001 Bhuj earthquake

The Bhuj earthquake of January 26th, 2001, induced wide spread liquefaction within the Kachch peninsula. It has been pointed out that inundation due to soil liquefaction was short lived in some parts than in others in the affected region. Several geological, seismological and hydrological factors would have cumulatively contributed to these observed changes. We simulate in this article, undrained or short-term change in pore pressure in a poroelastic half space, in response to a simplified model of the Bhuj earthquake source. We find that the regions of relatively shorter lived inundation due to soil liquefaction may fall in the region where pore pressure responsible for soil liquefaction attributable to strong ground shaking was counteracted by pore pressure changes due to undrained poroelastic effect and vice versa.     

2022年9月17日中国台湾地震序列的触发机制及其动力学成因

2022年9月17—18日, 中国台湾先后发生台东县MS6.5和花莲县MS6.9两次强震及多次余震。两次强震均为逆走滑型地震, 且震中都位于台湾纵谷断裂带, 该地区构造复杂, 为晚中生代古太平洋板块朝东亚陆缘的消减带, 具有逆冲型构造应力背景。对纵谷断裂带周围地区历史上发生过的地震进行统计发现, 大部分地震为逆断型。为探究该地区此次发生逆走滑型地震的原因及其与构造应力场的关系, 首先通过搜集研究区相关的地震震源机制, 反演该地区的构造应力场, 明确其是以走向为北西西向的压应力为主的应力场; 然后将应力场投影到走向、倾角不同的断层面上, 发现一些节面上表现出较大的相对剪应力和较小的相对正应力, 说明这些节面上具有较强的剪切作用和较小的摩擦力, 容易发生错动而产生逆断型、逆走滑型和走滑型的地震。同时, 为明确短时间内两次强震间的触发关系, 通过计算MS6.5地震在MS6.9地震破裂面和滑动方向上产生的库伦破裂应力变化发现, MS6.9地震约在0.02MPa的库伦破裂应力触发下发生。相关结论对研究台湾纵谷带地震的发震机理和地球动力学具有一定的指导意义。     

The distribution of annual maximum earthquake magnitude around Taiwan and its application in the estimation of catastrophic earthquake recurrence probability

The annual maximum earthquake magnitudes around Taiwan from 1900 to 2009 are presented in this paper. Using the distribution of the AMEM, a probabilistic framework to estimate the recurrence probability of a large-size earthquake is also proposed and an illustration was made in this paper. The mean value of the 110-AMEM is 6.433, and the coefficient of variation is around 10%. The results of two goodness-of-fit tests show that the Gamma and lognormal distributions are relatively suitable to represent the AMEM around Taiwan among five common probability distributions. Using the proposed approach, the recurrence probability is 4% for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.5 in a 1-year period around Taiwan. More site-specifically, the probability is around 5% in Central Taiwan for such an earthquake to occur in a 50-year period.     

1976年唐山大地震的孕震环境:密集地震台阵观测得到的结果

1976-07-28唐山地区发生了震惊中外的7.8级大地震。为什么在华北古老克拉通内部的唐山地区能够发生如此的大地震一直是一个令人费解的问题。是否会在唐山地区再次出现同样的破坏性地震值得认真研究。利用流动地震观测台阵数据和接收函数反演方法,我们研究了唐山地区60 km深度范围内的三维地壳上地幔速度结构。结果表明:(1)由活动断裂切割的唐山断块与周围介质存在明显差异,围限唐山断块的断裂均为超壳的活动断裂;(2)唐山大震区中上地壳具有明显的非均匀壳内低速体;(3)该地区壳幔界面表现为明显的断块式隆升,与两侧相比,唐山菱形地块下方的上地幔顶部异常隆起的高度达到10 km左右,下伏的上地幔具有异常的非均匀结构;(4)唐山大震区可能有幔源物质较大规模的侵入,形成了中、上地壳内的低速体。由于较已往的研究结果有更高的空间分辨率,我们得到了一些以往尚未发现的有关唐山地区深部结构的异常特征;(5)首都圈地区内破坏性地震发生的地点绝非偶然,它们均与其相应的深部构造背景密切有关,这为强震发生地点的预测提供了可能。根据本文结果,我们认为,1976年唐山大地震的主因源于上地幔的垂向运动变形及壳幔之间物质及能量的交换,区域水平向应力场为次要作用。这有助于解释为什么能够在我国华北古老克拉通地区发生7级以上强震,在唐山地区再次发生7级以上大地震的可能性值得给予进一步的研究和关注。     

Observations of the performance of buildings during the 1985 Mexico earthquake,and structural design implications

Summary The high amplification of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake is explained by the large number of strong and nearly continuous cycles of 2 s period motion lasting for more than 30 s. The type of damage caused by the earthquake—particularly to engineered multi-storey buildings of high flexibility is described, and methods of adding damping and stiffness elements to reduce and resist earthquake demand forces are discussed.     

Vegetation recovery and landscape change assessment at Chiufenershan landslide area caused by Chichi earthquake in central Taiwan

This study discusses vegetation recovery and land cover change with reference to the Chiufenershan landslide, a major disaster caused by the Chichi earthquake, 21 September 1999. Image classification technology, landscape indicators from multi-temporal remotely sensed data and a field survey provide the data. Image differencing methods and threshold values coupled with pre- and post-quake satellite images were used. Multi-temporal images in combination with various vegetation indices were drawn on to classify land cover patterns and discuss differences and suitability of indices. Landscape indicators and field investigations fed into an investigation of vegetation recovery and landscape change. The study results show that the best image classification system is original wavebands coupled with a cropping management factor index (CMFI). The land cover analysis shows that areas of forest and grass are increasing and areas of landslide are decreasing. From the field investigation, because the left and right sides of the landslide area were not disturbed by the earthquake, their calculated similarity index is the highest (30.08%). Miscanthus floridulus is the most dominant pioneer plant at the landslide collapse area with an importance value index (IVI) of 63.6%.     

用sPn震相测定1999年9月21日台湾集集地震震源深度

本文采用双层地壳结构的sPn-Pn时差方程,结合华南地区地壳速度模型,得出测算震源深度的方程;根据sPn震相的运动学和动力学特征,利用台网的优势,多台记录对比,正确识别sPn震相,依此测算1999年9月21日台湾集集地震的震源深度。