基于工作流的防汛业务集成管理研究

分析了防汛业务集成管理的需求,借鉴工作流模型和基于角色的访问控制模型,提出了一种防汛业务集成管理模型,以实现防汛大系统内部动态的防汛业务集成和门户集成。通过设计集成管理数据库,应用数据驱动技术,使防汛业务集成管理系统具有良好的柔性、集成性、重用性和可扩展性。应用该模型与技术,设计开发了黑龙江省基于工作流的防汛业务集成管理系统,并已得到实际应用。     

城市暴雨积水过程的模拟

在对城市排水系统产汇流特性分析的基础上,采用水文学与水力学相结合途径,建立了城市地面积水数学模型。模型能够可靠地模拟暴雨造成的城市地面积水的量级、面积、深度和历时,并借助GIS的功能动态地演示地面积水的涨消过程,为制定城市防汛减灾对策和措施提供水情及涝情信息。     

基于GIS的万州示范区地质灾害灾情评估系统设计

文章结合地质灾害灾情评估的特点和发展需要，提出运用地理信息系统(GIS)先进技术进行地质灾害灾情评估的框架，讨论以地理信息系统为开发平台的区域地质灾害灾情评估系统的设计。建立系统总体框架、工作流程，以及灾情评估模型的模块功能。该设计结合当前地质灾害管理、评估的需要，为区域地质灾害评估提供了一个应用例证。     

地下水数值模型与组件GIS集成研究

地理信息系(GIS)应用于地下水资源评价和管理，需要地下水模拟模型的支持，集成数值模型与GIS可以通过嵌入、松散连接和完全整合三种途径实现。采用组件和面向对象技术，开发了基于MapObjects GIS组件的地下水模拟系统。该系统在面向对象建模、模型前处理、参数设置、模型后处理等方面突破了传统建模方式，实现了GIS功能与地下水数值模型的完全整合。结果表明，集成系统极大地改进了模型输入和计算结果的分析处理能力。     

WebGIS的防汛抗旱信息管理系统设计与实现——以曲靖市麒麟区为例

介绍防汛抗旱管理信息系统的结构框架及其实现功能。系统为Browser/Server的网络结构,充分利用计算机网络、数据库、GIS、无线信号传输等新技术,集GIS、MIS于一体,实现SQL Server与ArcGIS属性库的无缝对接。基于WebGIS技术的防汛抗旱管理信息系统,实现区域水雨情、汛情、灾情等信息网络化上的存储、管理和发布,为相关部门的防汛抗旱工作提供准确、及时的信息服务。     

基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用

讨论了将信息量模型与GIS系统结合，进行地质灾害危险性区划的方法。其基本思路是充分利用GIS强大的空间图形和属性数据管理功能，实现对地质环境数据的分层次管理。在此基础上，利用信息量模型开发了基于GIS的空间分析地质灾害危险性区划模块。最后，以长江三峡库区为典型实例，讨论了GIS与信息量法模型结合及其在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用。     

上海市防汛墙岸堤的稳定可靠度研究

该文分析上海市区防汛墙结构的稳定性为目的，由原来用安全系数表示的土皮稳定性计算方法出发，提出了基于概率极限理论的计算土坡稳定可靠性的简易方法，并用一次二阶矩法对上海市区几种典型防汛墙结构型式进行稳定可靠度分析。分析方法和结果可望对今后防汛墙结构的选型、施工和监测具有一定的参考价值。     

基于组件体系结构的地质GIS应用系统开发研究

组件技术和面向对象技术是现代GIS软件的发展趋势之一。提出应用基于COM的组件技术开发地质领域GIS应用系统。该系统建立在组件式GIS通用平台上，用构造COM对象的方法建立扩展的地质空间数据模型，各种处理、分析和解释的地质研究模型和可视化系统均以组件形式集成到系统中，并直接处理各种地质对象，以突破传统的以地图为处理基础的空间处理方式，提高地质空间分析和处理能力。     

GIS支持下的地质灾害实时动态预测评估系统架构研究

论文对基于GIS支持下的地质灾害预测评估系统的架构进行了研究。将数学方法与GIS技术相结合,以目前拥有的大量区域自然环境、地质环境、社会条件、地质灾害信息等基础资料为依托,利用GIS的叠加分析、空间统计分析等模型进行区域地质灾害实时动态预测评估。并通过对灾害点所在区域的评估,获取灾点所在区的基础环境条件,结合灾点特征信息,对正在发生的地质灾害点进行评估,为防灾、救灾提供快速支持。     

ArcTOP:TOPKAPI与GIS紧密连接的分布式水文模型系统

基于遥感（RS）和地理信息系统（GIS）的分布式水文模型已成为当前水文科学发展的前沿，地理信息建模系统是目前地理信息系统研究的热点问题之一。目前实现通用GIS空间分析功能与水文模型的集成主要有四种途径：水文模型嵌入CIS平台．GIS功能嵌入水文模型．水文模型和GIS的松散连接以及水文模型和CIS的紧密连接。本文提出的ArcTOP分布式水文模型系统，运用ArcViewGIS提供的宏语言，将以物理概念为基础的分布式水文模型TOPKAPI和CIS紧密连接，实现分布式水文模型和GIS的完全集成。     

Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China

Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.

     

Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China

Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.     

洪水灾情投影寻踪评估模型

洪水灾情评估是多因素评价问题,它是包括自然、环境、社会经济等多种因素综合作用的结果,必须对各因素进行综合评估,而不能仅依据某单项指标得出评价结论。目前国内外还没有统一的洪水灾情评估指标体系和各指标定量化等级标准。根据投影寻踪技术提出了洪水灾情投影寻踪评估模型,将评价样本的各因素进行线性投影,以最优投影方向所对应的投影特征量作为评价依据,该模型计算过程简单、结果直观,更重要的是评估结果无人为任意性。将这一模型用于1998年洪水的分类和我国部分省市的洪水灾情评估中。实例分析表明,该模型能够很好地对各种洪水灾情进行有效的评估,是一种处理多因素复杂评价问题的新途径。     

Risk assessment of flood disaster in Shanghai based on spatial–temporal characteristics analysis from 251 to 2000

As one of the top 20 cities exposed to flood disasters, Shanghai is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful floods and poorly prepared. However, it is unclear to understand the evolution process of floods and the variation of flood risk in Shanghai during the past 1,000 years. This paper analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics of flood disaster and evaluated the integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai based on the historical flood data from 251 to 2000. The results show that flood disaster in Shanghai was divided into storm surge-induced flood, rainstorm-induced flood and overbank flood. Flood disaster in Shanghai presents rising trend with time and mainly occurs in summer and autumn. Moreover, the flood disaster is dominated by rainstorm-induced flood, especially after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Additionally, flood risk in different areas of Shanghai between the years 251–1949 and 1950–2000 changed significantly. Shanghai urban area, Jinshan District and Chongming County belong to increased flood risk area; Baoshan, Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong and Minhang District belong to decreased flood risk area. The integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai has presented spatial disparities evidently at present. Shanghai urban area is most likely to suffer flood disaster; Baoshan, Jiading and Minhang District have medium flood risk rank; and Jinshan, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong, Qingpu and Chongming County show low flood risk at present. The combined effect of urbanization, sea-level rise, land subsidence and the poor capacity of flood prevention facilities will give rise to the risk of flood in the next several decades. These results provide very important information for the local government to improve flood risk management.     

土石坝漫顶溃决及洪水演进研究进展

土石坝漫顶溃决往往在其下游产生巨大的洪水灾难,研究坝体溃决及洪水演进是防灾减灾的需要。对土石坝漫顶溃决过程现象、机理及其模拟的研究进展进行了综述。讨论了物理模型试验的尺度设计,总结了不同尺度、不同类型、不同条件溃坝试验的研究成果;按照参数模型、简化物理模型、精细物理模型,分类总结了漫顶溃坝数学模型研究进展;阐述了溃坝洪水演进方面的试验与模拟研究。在此基础上,对该研究领域今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河道边界对溃坝过程及溃坝洪水传播过程的影响、非均质土石坝溃决机理、溃坝过程中挟沙水流冲蚀规律、溃坝下游河床的冲淤调整及泥沙分选、溃坝对水生态环境的冲击影响等。     

土石坝漫顶溃决及洪水演进研究进展

土石坝漫顶溃决往往在其下游产生巨大的洪水灾难,研究坝体溃决及洪水演进是防灾减灾的需要。对土石坝漫顶溃决过程现象、机理及其模拟的研究进展进行了综述。讨论了物理模型试验的尺度设计,总结了不同尺度、不同类型、不同条件溃坝试验的研究成果;按照参数模型、简化物理模型、精细物理模型,分类总结了漫顶溃坝数学模型研究进展;阐述了溃坝洪水演进方面的试验与模拟研究。在此基础上,对该研究领域今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河道边界对溃坝过程及溃坝洪水传播过程的影响、非均质土石坝溃决机理、溃坝过程中挟沙水流冲蚀规律、溃坝下游河床的冲淤调整及泥沙分选、溃坝对水生态环境的冲击影响等。     

Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province,China

This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment of flood disasters in central Liaoning Province, which was supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technology of natural disaster risk assessment. On the basis of the standard formulation of natural disaster risk and flood disaster risk index, of which weights were developed using combined weights of entropy, the relative membership degree functions of variable fuzzy set (VFS) theory were calculated using improved set pair analysis, while level values were calculated using VFSs, including hazard levels, exposure levels, vulnerability levels and restorability levels, and the flood risk level for each assessment unit was obtained using the natural disaster index method. Consequently, integrated flood risk map was carried out by GIS spatial analysis technique. The results show that the southwestern and central parts of the study area possess higher risk, while the northwestern and southeastern parts possess lower risk. The results got by the assessment model fits the area of historical flood data; this study offer new insights and possibility to carry out an efficient way for flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The study also provides scientific reference in flood risk management for local and national governmental agencies.     

鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统

位于浙江省温州市南部的鳌江是一条洪水灾害频繁的河流.介绍了鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统的总体设计、功能模块、逻辑结构、模型组织以及应用水文学及水力学的方法对流域洪水演进过程进行模拟计算的方法等,建立了一个可以在中小流域推广应用的防洪预报调度系统.     

淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值

采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料,结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据,基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究,提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念,在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征,确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:① 致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义,得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映,可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求;② 洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势,而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96,构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。     

城市洪水灾害易损性多属性动态评价

近年来极端天气事件频发,尤其洪水灾害日趋频繁并且影响深远。在众多易损性概念基础上,进一步明确了城市易损性的内涵,并构建了城市洪水灾害易损性的评价指标体系。针对传统多属性决策方法——逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)不能比较正、负理想解中垂线上点的问题,采用Kullback-Leibler距离计算评价对象与正理想解的贴近度,建立了KL-TOPSIS模型,应用该模型对哈尔滨市2005~2009年洪水灾害易损性进行了动态评价,得出其易损性先升后降的结论,并通过横向比较发现哈尔滨市的洪水灾害易损性要小于同时期的沈阳市、武汉市和上海市。