Statistical Simulation of Boxing Day Tsunami of The Indian Ocean and a Predictive Equation for Beach Run up Heights Based on Work-Energy Theorem

The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy.     

Statistical Simulation of Boxing Day Tsunami of The Indian Ocean and a Predictive Equation for Beach Run up Heights Based on Work-Energy Theorem

The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy.     

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.     

基于人工神经网络的台风浪高快速计算方法

采用2010—2017年南海5个浮标波高观测资料和中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径集中的热带气旋参数, 基于前馈型误差反向传播(Forward Feedback Back Propagation, FFBP)神经网络(Artificial Neural Network, ANN)方法, 分别建立了各浮标站的台风浪高快速计算模型。研究显示, 基于热带气旋中心坐标、中心最低气压、近中心最大风速、热带气旋中心与浮标之间的距离和方位4个参数建立的神经网络模型经反复训练后, 模型输出结果可以很好地拟合观测数据, 各浮标有效波高计算值与观测值的均方根误差小于0.3m, 平均相对误差为5.78%~7.23%, 相关系数大于0.9, 属高度相关。独立测试结果显示, “山竹”( 国际编号: 1822)影响期间有效波高最大值的神经网络模型预报结果与观测值基本吻合, 相对误差为-31.06%~0.98%, 但计算的最大值出现时间和观测情况不完全一致。该计算方法可应用于热带气旋影响期间的有效波高最大值计算, 因而在海洋工程领域和海洋预报领域具有应用前景。     

应用人工神经网络计算孤立波爬高

运用附加动量法和自适应学习速率对具有一层隐含层的BP网络进行改进，并由此建立神经网络模型来计算孤立被的爬高。将试验值分别与Synolakis公式以及本文结果进行比较，证实神经网络模型计算方法对于计算孤立波的爬高是合适的。     

Run-up of long solitary waves of different polarities on a plane beach

We study the run-up of long solitary waves of different polarities on a beach in the case of composite bottom topography: a plane sloping beach transforms into a region of constant depth. We confirm that nonlinear wave deformation of positive polarity (wave crest) resulting in an increase in the wave steepness leads to a significant increase in the run-up height. It is shown that nonlinear effects are most strongly pronounced for the run-up of a wave with negative polarity (wave trough). In the latter case, the run-up height of such waves increases with their steepness and can exceed the amplitude of the incident wave.     

Statistical relations of the run-up height of Tsunami waves to the distance and energy of the source

A statistical analysis of the relation between the run-up height of historical tsunami events and the distance and magnitude of the source was performed on the basis of the known Historical Tsunami Data Base [5]. The sample from the database used for the analysis comprises 5638 run-ups caused by 628 seismic events. This analysis, together with the dimensionality theory, shows that the statistical average of the run-up height is inversely proportional to the distance from the source to a power close to 1/2 (that is characteristic of the cylindrically symmetrical case) and directly proportional to the 3/8 power of the earthquake energy.     

Estimation of scour around submarine pipelines with Artificial Neural Network

The process of scour around submarine pipelines laid on mobile beds is complicated due to physical processes arising from the triple interaction of waves/currents, beds and pipelines. This paper presents Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for predicting the scour depth beneath submarine pipelines for different storm conditions. The storm conditions are considered for both regular and irregular wave attacks. The developed models use the Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. The training, validation and testing data are selected from appropriate experimental data collected in this study. Various estimation models were developed using both deep water wave parameters and local wave parameters. Alternative ANN models with different inputs and neuron numbers were evaluated by determining the best models using a trial and error approach. The estimation results show good agreement with measurements.     

Revisiting the February 6th 1783 Scilla (Calabria, Italy) landslide and tsunami by numerical simulation

On February 6th, 1783, a landslide of about 5 × 10⁶ m³ triggered by a 5.8 M earthquake occurred near the village of Scilla (Southern Calabria, Italy). The rock mass fell into the sea as a rock avalanche, producing a tsunami with a run-up as high as 16 m. The tsunami killed about 1,500 people, making it one of the most catastrophic tsunamis in Italian history. A combined landslide-tsunami simulation is proposed in this paper. It is based on an already performed reconstruction of the landslide, derived from subaerial and submarine investigation by means of geomorphological, geological and geomechanical surveys. The DAN3D model is used to simulate the landslide propagation both in the subaerial and in the submerged parts of the slope, while a simple linear shallow water model is applied for both tsunami generation and propagation. A satisfying back-analysis of the landslide propagation has been achieved in terms of run-out, areal distribution and thickness of the final deposit. Moreover, landslide velocities comparable to similar events reported in the literature are achieved. Output data from numerical simulation of the landslide are used as input parameters for tsunami modelling. It is worth noting that locations affected by recordable waves according to the simulation correspond to those ones recorded by historical documents. With regard to run-up heights a good agreement is achieved at some locations (Messina, Catona, Punta del Faro) between computed and real values, while in other places modelled heights are overestimated. The discrepancies, which were most significant at locations characterized by a very low slope gradient in the vicinity of the landslide, were probably caused by effects such as wave breaking, for which the adopted tsunami model does not account, as well as by uncertainties in the historical data.     

Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.     

Simulation of Wave Forces on A Semi-Circular Breakwater Using Multilayer Feed Forward Network

1 .IntroductionTheartificialneuralnetwork(ANN)hasbeenwidelyusedinmanyscientificfieldsinrecentyears .Itisakindofinformationmanagementsystemthatresemblesthehumanbraininworkpattern .Comparedwiththetraditionalmethodsofnumericalsimulation ,ANNhastheadvantagesofrelativein dependenceofphysicalmodel,uniformandsimplewayofrealization ,quicknessofcomputing ,andsoon .Sincethemodelofartificialneuronswasfirstlyintroducedin 1 943,ithasbeendevelopedthroughseveralstages.TheapplicationofANNhadnotbeenpopular…     

Artificial neural network to translate offshore satellite wave data to coastal locations

Owing to the spatial averaging involved in satellite sensing, use of observations so collected is often restricted to offshore regions. This paper discusses a technique to obtain significant wave heights at a specified coastal site from their values gathered by a satellite at deeper offshore locations. The technique is based on the approach of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) of Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Feed-forward Back-propagation (FFBP) type. The satellite-sensed data of significant wave height; average wave period and the wind speed were given as input to the network in order to obtain significant wave heights at a coastal site situated along the west coast of India. Qualitative as well as quantitative comparison of the network output with target observations showed usefulness of the selected networks in such an application vis-à-vis simpler techniques like statistical regression. The basic FFBP network predicted the higher waves more correctly although such a network was less attractive from the point of overall accuracy. Unlike satellite observations collection of buoy data is costly and hence, it is generally resorted to fewer locations and for a smaller period of time. As shown in this study the network can be trained with samples of buoy data and can be further used for routine wave forecasting at coastal locations based on more permanent flow of satellite observations.     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Coastal forest effects on tsunami run-up heights

An experimental study was carried out to determine the effects of a coastal forest on tsunami run-up heights. The beach was built as a natural sandy beach at laboratory scale. The coastal forest model was constructed using artificial trees (FM–I) and cylindrical timber sticks (FM–II). Artificial trees were placed on a 1:5 slope in three different layouts: rectilinear, staggered, and dense rectilinear. It was shown that in the case when the trees were placed in the dense rectilinear pattern and close to the still water level (SWL), the run-up height was reduced by approximately 45% compared with the case without trees. After evaluation of the experimental results, the parameters that affect the run-up height were determined. These parameters were written as a dimensionless group using Buckingham's Pi theorem. An extensive regression analysis was carried out and equations proposed. Furthermore, all experiments were repeated with a slope of 1:3.5 to verify the proposed equations. The experimental results were compared with the results of the proposed equations, and it was shown a good agreement between the results.     

Run-up of long waves on a beach: The influence of the incident wave form

The influence of the incident wave form on the extreme (maximal) characteristics of a wave at a beach (run-up and draw-down heights, run-up and draw-down velocities, and the breaking parameter) is studied. It is suggested to use in the calculations the definition of wavelength at a level of 2/3 of the maximal height, which to a certain degree correlates with the definition of the significant wavelength accepted in oceanology. Such a definition allows us to unify the relations for extreme run-up characteristics so that the influence of the incident wave form becomes insignificant. The obtained universal relations can be used for the estimates of run-up characteristics when the exact information about the form of the incident wave is not available.     

True run-up heights reached by the huge tsunami of 1896

The run-up height reached by the tsunami of 1896 at the former Ryohri Village had been erroneously recognized as high as only 21.9 m. Our study (1983) renewed the figure of 38.2 m (Matsuo, 1933), which is now officially recognized.In 1980, we selected the spot, Raga, Tanohata Village, and, using a hand level, pointed out the decisive underestimation of the run-up height in Igi's report (1897). Our study, however, provided only circumstantial evidence that the maximum runup at the former Ryohri Village might be 38.2 m. In 1986, we directly studied the run-up height at the saddle point at Ohkubo, the former Ryohri Village using hand levels, and confirmed that it was at least as high as 36 m. Countermeasures for future tsunamis need major revisions, a part of which is the consideration on the combination of the large V-shaped Ryohri Bay and a neighboring small (V+U)-shaped bay. This consideration becomes essential and we show that the (V+U)-shaped bay is of the worst shape, basing on the survival ratios of individual small subhamlets, which have been recently ready for use (Yamashita, 1982).     

Numerical investigation of tsunami-like wave hydrodynamic characteristics and its comparison with solitary wave

Solitary waves have been commonly used as an initial condition in the experimental and numerical modelling of tsunamis for decades. However, the main component of a tsunami waves acts at completely different spatial and temporal scales than solitary waves. Thus, use of solitary waves as approximation of a tsunami wave may not yield realistic model results, especially in the coastal region where the shoaling effect restrains the development of the tsunami wave. Alternatively, N-shaped waves may be used to give a more realistic approximation of the tsunami wave profile. Based on the superposition of the sech²(*) waves, the observed tsunami wave profile could be approximated with the N-shaped wave method, and this paper presents numerical simulation results based on the tsunami-like wave generated based on the observed tsunami wave profile measured in the Tohoku tsunami. This tsunami-like wave was numerically generated with an internal wave source method based on the two-phase incompressible flow model with a Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to capture the free surface, and a finite volume scheme was used to solve all the governing equations. The model is first validated for the case of a solitary wave propagating within a straight channel, by comparing its analytical solutions to model results. Further, model comparisons between the solitary and tsunami-like wave are then made for (a) the simulation of wave run-up on shore and (b) wave transport over breakwater. Comparisons show that use of these largely different waveform shapes as inputs produces significant differences in overall wave evolution, hydrodynamic load characteristics as well as velocity and vortex fields. Further, it was found that the solitary wave uses underestimated the total energy and hence underestimated the run-up distance.     

Characteristic of tsunami force acting on shelter with mooring

Tsunami shelter has been designed and built as a refuges in case tsunami occurs. In recent year, different kinds of tsunami shelter have been proposed and developed, which is either a building type or a floating one. The main purpose of this research is to propose a new type of tsunami shelter with elastic mooring in comparison with a fixed type of shelter and to investigate tsunami force acting on the shelter and motions due to tsunami wave. Three different kinds of tsunami shelter were compared, rectangular, trapezoid and streamline type, with two conditions such as fixed on the ground and floating with elastic mooring. To compute interaction between run-up tsunami wave and the tsunami shelters with mooring, the numerical model has been developed by using particle based method, Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) coupling with Extended Discrete Element Method (EDEM) for elastic mooring. Based on the validation of tsunami force and shelter motions with experimental results, the numerical results indicated that the model can simulate interactions between tsunami wave and shelter in fixed and mooring case. The result also shows that the tsunami force on the fixed tsunami shelter can be higher than that on the tsunami shelter with elastic mooring and then the mooring system can reduce tsunami force, 35% for averaged value and 50% for maximum one and the surge and pitch motions can be also reduced. The tsunami shelter with elastic mooring system could be a useful option for evacuating from tsunami attacking.     

A nonlinear parametric model based on a power law relationship for predicting the coastal tsunami height

When a subduction-zone earthquake occurs, the tsunami height must be predicted to cope with the damage generated by the tsunami. Therefore, tsunami height prediction methods have been studied using simulation data acquired by large-scale calculations. In this research, we consider the existence of a nonlinear power law relationship between the water pressure gauge data observed by the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) and the coastal tsunami height. Using this relationship, we propose a nonlinear parametric model and conduct a prediction experiment to compare the accuracy of the proposed method with those of previous methods and implement particular improvements to the extrapolation accuracy.

     

Kinematics of breaking tsunami wavefronts: A data set from large scale laboratory experiments

This paper provides an overview of a new large scale laboratory data set on the kinematics of breaking tsunami wavefronts. The aim of the experiments was to provide an open access data set for model testing, calibration and verification, with particular emphasis on fluid kinematics in the wave breaking and run-up (swash) zones. The experiments were performed over a composite slope in the tsunami wave basin at the O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory at Oregon State University. Data for ten different wave conditions were collected, including non-breaking and breaking waves, and both shore breaks and fully developed long bores.Surface elevation and fluid kinematics were measured with a closely spaced array of surface piercing wave gauges, non-contact ultrasonic wave gauges and four 3-D side-looking Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters. The array was traversed from the nearshore (depth = 0.2 m) to the middle and upper run-up zone, providing kinematic data at 30 cross-shore locations. Video was also recorded from 4 cameras covering the propagation, breaking and run-up zones. Surface elevation, flow velocities and the wave maker displacement were also recorded to provide offshore boundary conditions.The experiments include conditions with wave heights up to 0.55 m, notional wave periods up to 20 s and run-up lengths of up to 15.2 m on a 1/30 slope. In terms of the slope in the shoaling and breaker zones, the data correspond to Iribarren numbers in the range of 0.26–5.6. Raw, calibrated and processed data are stored with open access within the OSU Tsunami Wave Basin Experiment Notebook, which provides full access to all the wave maker control signals, data, instrument coordinates, and processing and plotting software. This paper serves as an introduction to the data set, demonstrates data quality and provides an initial analysis of some key parameters that govern the impact of tsunami events, including run-up versus offshore wave conditions and nearshore bore height, the maximum inundation depths at the original shoreline position, and the time to maximum inundation depth and flow reversal. Examples of temporal and convective accelerations and turbulent flow components are also presented to illustrate further details of the kinematics.