Comprehensive evaluation of the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms in Poyang Lake based on nutrient zoning

The potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms is the basis for predicting, preventing, and managing eutrophication. Poyang Lake lies on the southern bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This lake is a large shallow lake connected to the Yangtze River and is affected by monsoon. The comprehensive evaluation index system, evaluation model, and method of the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms were constructed based on the nutrient zoning in Poyang Lake, and the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms was evaluated in 2013. (1) The evaluation index system comprises physical, chemical, and biological indicators. The physical indicators consist of blocking degree, lake region location, transparency (Secchi disk depth, SD), and temperature; the chemical indicators consist of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP); and the biological indicators consist of chlorophyll a (Chla) and phytoplankton biomass. Among the indicators, blocking degree and lake region location along with the prevailing wind direction were selected to represent the indicators affected by water retention time and wind direction. (2) We established a comprehensive evaluation method for assessing the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms by adopting both analytic hierarchy process weighting and a comprehensive evaluation method. (3) Results show that the high-risk periods for cyanobacteria blooms were August, July, and December, and the high-risk regions were in the Northeastern Lake Region, Western Lake Region and Northern Lake Region. The Northeastern Lake Region is particularly in high risk in August and July. These cyanobacteria blooms presented heavy risk or close to heavy risk. Based on the risk evaluation indicators, outbreaks of cyanobacteria blooms are limited by temperature and location. Chla and phytoplankton biomass were the key indices affecting the level of potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms during the high-water-level period (July and August). In contrast, TN and TP are the key indices affecting the level of harm during the low-water-level period. Within a year, Chla, phytoplankton biomass, and TP are key indicators for the prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in Poyang Lake.     

主要水污染物总量控制的多层次灰色综合评价法研究

总量控制是我国一项重要的环境保护制度,但由于其影响因素复杂,一直没有较好的方法来全面评价地区总量控制水平。本文基于灰色系统理论,利用灰色关联度建立了主要水污染物总量控制的多层次灰色综合评价法。将该方法应用于我国27个省级地区主要水污染物总量控制综合水平评价,结果表明,本方法是一种有效的综合评价方法,能够反映多因素影响下的地区总量控制制度实施情况,较好地克服了以往单因素评价的不足。     

临兴地区山西组致密砂岩气开采潜力地质评价方法

为了进一步开发煤系致密砂岩气,对影响致密砂岩气开采潜力的各种因素进行了综合研究,确立了临兴地区山西组致密砂岩气开采潜力评价的3个二级指标（富集、高渗及可采性）及10个三级指标。根据层序地层体系域发育程度,采用模糊决策两两矩阵和灰色关联分析相结合的方法建立了致密砂岩储层评价模型,利用层序地层单元对砂岩储层进行评价,实现了有利储层的精细划分。结果表明：两两矩阵方法与灰色关联分析方法相结合既提高了"高渗"类别6个三级指标数据之间的关联性,又减少了两两比较法的主观性对参数权重产生的误差;结合层序地层体系域中煤、砂体展布规律,使储层划分、评价更加准确。研究区西南部为山1段开采潜力富集区,东北部为山2段开采潜力富集区。     

一种加权绝对灰色关联度及其在密云水库水质评价中的应用

在系统分析了目前各种绝对灰色关联度计算方法的基础上,提出了一种简单的加权绝对灰色关联度计算方法.该方法不涉及高深的数学知识,思想方法易于理解和掌握,计算只涉及简单的算术运算.采用算例将该方法与神经网络、模糊综合评价、 LOG等方法进行了对比检验,结果表明该方法可行有效.用该方法对密云水库水质进行了综合评价,给出密云水库水质基本上为二级的结论,为密云水库水质的进一步综合管理和规划提供了理论依据.     

浙江温州滑坡地质灾害预警方法及应用

滑坡地质灾害预警方法主要有面状预警和点状预警两种,前者一般应用于国家级和省级层面上的预警,后者主要是针对具体的滑坡隐患点或者小范围地区。温州地区山区面积大,地形复杂,暴雨频繁,地质灾害频繁发生。温州滑坡地质灾害预警方法基本上采用面状预警理论,但是兼有点状预警的特色。其基本理论思想是：以近似于点状行政村为预警单元,实地调查典型的行政村,并全面收集有关地形、地貌、基础地质、历年地质灾害区划调查等资料,对每个预警单元（行政村）分析其发生滑坡地质灾害潜在能力的大小（潜势度）与灾害发生的降雨阈值,从而建立预警系统,并应用于政府在地质灾害防灾工作中。     

华蓥市矿山地质环境问题影响评估及治理建议

本文在四川省华蓥市资源枯竭城市矿山地质环境实地调查及矿山地质环境问题综合分析的基础上,建立了多因子、分层次的综合评价模型,对各评估指标体系、权重进行了分析研究,定量地评价出华蓥市矿山地质环境影响程度。评估结果显示,华蓥市矿山地质环境影响严重与较严重分别占38%与49%,区内矿山地质环境问题十分突出。结合华蓥市矿山地质环境问题影响特点与经济发展需要,确定需要开展重点治理的区域,提出了矿山地质环境治理建议。     

煤矿工作面底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价技术

准确圈定煤矿工作面底板突水预警重点监测区域,实现监测位置和潜在突水点位置在空间上的匹配,是突水灾害预警急需解决的问题之一。为研究煤矿工作面底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价技术,采用水文地质分析、GIS空间分析及ANN预测等技术手段,建立了底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价指标体系,提出了将不连续指标转化为连续指标的方法,建立了评价模型,研发了重点监测区域评价GIS系统,实现了煤矿底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域GIS与ANN耦合评价技术,最后以赵庄煤矿5303回采工作面底板突水监测预警为例,利用研发的系统圈定了该工作面重点监测区域。研究表明,确定预警重点监测区域的影响因素主要有含水层水压、含水层富水性、含水层防（隔）水煤岩柱厚度、老空区危险性指数、断层危险性指数、陷落柱危险性指数和封闭不良钻孔危险性指数,利用分段函数可以有效将不连续指标转化为连续指标,研发的评价系统可以实现煤矿突水灾害预警监测位置自动评价,评价结果与现场揭露及水害预警系统监测结果一致。      

水资源承载力预警研究进展

针对水资源承载力预警方法的研究,通过揭示水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统间各要素的相互作用机制,可有效地对水资源承载力的突发和异常状况进行事前行为评价和预警,是资源环境承载能力预警研究的关键组成部分。为此,借鉴有关学科领域对预警系统现有的研究成果,立足于水资源承载力预警系统的概念和机制,从诊断、预测、评价和调控方面对水资源承载力预警的主要方法进行综述,并提出水资源承载力预警未来研究重点和主要发展方面的建议,包括:① 进一步完善水资源承载力预警系统的概念界定;② 构建水资源承载力预警指标体系;③ 深入水资源承载力预警系统的整体研究;④ 重视实现水资源承载力预警动态性预测;⑤ 进一步加强水资源承载力调控措施方面的研究。     

The Risk Assessment of Tunnels Based on Grey Correlation and Entropy Weight Method

In the process of tunnel construction, many kinds of geological disasters are frequently occur. Among them, tunnel collapse is one of the most serious geological disasters. Seven controlling factors were determined by analyzing 76 large or medium tunnel collapses in China. By means of synthesizing all kind of index parameters, grey relational coefficients were calculated based on grey correlation theory. Entropy weight method was used to compute the weight coefficients. And a comprehensive risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse was established based on entropy weight and grey relational degree. The paper gives the correctional coefficients depending on rainfall conditions during construction of the tunnel. At last the collapse risk level of tunnels was obtained. Based on the actual project cases of risk assessment, the results indicated that the comprehensive risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse was scientific and reasonable. And it was shown that the method was easy to master and has a great significance on engineering practice.     

金属矿床勘查与开发定量生态评估体系初探:以福建罗卜岭斑岩型铜钼矿为例

定量评估矿床的经济价值与未来勘查开发对生态环境产生的影响,可以缓解矿产资源开发与生态文明建设之间的矛盾.基于多元数据,构建了以驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应（Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response,DPSIR）模型为理论框架的综合评价指标体系,包含6个一级指标和23个二级指标.根据评价等级表,利用多层次模糊综合评价法进行指标权重计算以及综合均值分析,建立了一个完整的评估体系.该体系在福建罗卜岭斑岩型矿床开发设计中的应用表明,福建罗卜岭矿区开发适宜度评价为Ⅱ级,即对当地的经济发展起到明显的推动作用,但对生态环境会产生轻微干扰.该方法能较好地反映金属矿床勘查与开发对生态的综合影响,可操作较强,可为国土资源、环境保护以及矿山企业等部门进行矿产资源的开发评估提供参考.      

A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers.     

地下水水质预警信息系统研究

地下水水质预警是对地下水水质现状及变化趋势适时给出相应给别警戒信息的方法，包括状态预警和趋势预警两部分。以GIS技术为核心，将水质预警模型与GIS技术相结合，建立了地下水水质预警信息系统。并以吉林省西部平原地区地下水水质为例，研究了该区地下水水质恶化地区的分布、趋势、恶化预警等级及其成因。地下水水质预警系统为地下水资源管理，减少地下水水质恶化的风险提供了科学依据。     

滑坡对降雨响应的多指标监测及综合预警探析:以赣南罗坳滑坡为例

降雨量和位移是当前降雨型滑坡监测预警最常用的指标。然而,降雨量和位移监测结果只能反映降雨作用下滑坡的变形情况,不能揭示滑坡内在物理力学性状对降雨的响应。因此,除降雨量和位移监测之外,建立包括体积含水率、基质吸力等反映滑坡动态演化过程的关键指标监测体系必将成为今后更真实地把握滑坡内在演化趋势、更准确地建立滑坡综合预警判据的最有效手段。笔者对赣南地区典型降雨型滑坡进行了多指标监测及综合预警示范研究。结果表明:(1)在降雨条件下滑坡土体内部体积含水率、基质吸力和温度等多指标均产生有规律的动态响应;(2)随着降雨的持续,滑体体积含水率与基质吸力的变化均具有显著的滞后现象;(3)体积含水率和基质吸力变化速率与滑体位移具有显著的正相关性;(4)滑体温度分布变化规律受大气温度和体积含水率的共同影响。以实测数据的滑坡稳定性分析为基准,在考虑实际降雨入渗深度与滑坡稳定性的关联度上,建立了包括日降雨量、体积含水率增加速率、基质吸力减小速率以及位移速度多元指标预警方法体系,提出了基于关键指标综合预警体系及确定方法,旨在为降雨滑坡准确预警提供新模式。     

山区煤矿矿山地质环境多层次灰色综合评价

以山区煤矿矿山地质环境为研究对象,从地质环境条件、矿山开发程度、资源损毁、地质环境问题和环境污染问题等5个方面构建一个3层次的矿山地质环境综合指标评价体系,运用灰色系统理论,建立了山区矿山地质环境多层次灰色综合评价模型,并结合实例进行计算,得出矿山地质环境综合评价值。评价结果与实际情况基本相符,表明该模型能有效地利用评价指标的信息,所给出的综合评价值能够对受评矿山地质环境进行定性或定量的评判,为政府和企业进行矿山地质环境恢复治理及矿产资源合理利用提供科学依据。     

Risk Assessment of Coal Floor Water Inrush from Underlying Aquifers Based on GRA–AHP and Its Application

Ground water inrush from underlying coal seam aquifers is a serious geohazard during coal mining in China. In order to effectively predict coal floor water inrush, the evaluation index system and evaluation standard for coal floor water inrush, containing quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes, is established on the base of conditions of aquifer and aquiclude, geologic structure and mining disturbance. Simultaneously, grey relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process are used to establish an evaluation model which efficiently overcomes the uncertainty between indexes of water inrush effects and really reflects the degree of importance for each index of water inrush effects. The model is applied to the typical working face of Yuzhou coalfield in the north of China to demonstrate the evaluation process. Compared to the water inrush coefficient method which is widely used for evaluating coal floor water inrush, the presented evaluation model in this paper accords more with the susceptibility of coal floor water inrush by multi-factor and is of nonlinear dynamic characteristics of highly complicated formation mechanism. This method offers a new tool in the assessment of ground water inrush in mine.     

基于熵的模糊物元水资源承载力评价

用基于信息熵理论的模糊物元分析法进行区域水资源承载力综合评价,并在此基础上进行合理的改进和运用,结合欧氏贴近度实现不同评价分区的量化比较,得到各分区水资源承载力水平及其优劣次序。实例表明,相对于常规的灰色物元分析法、模糊综合评价法等,该方法更能反映问题实质,评价结果合理,有助于塔里木河流域的水资源利用与经济社会发展的协调。     

河北省地下水资源承载能力评价及预警方法研究

河北省由于地下水持续超采引发一系列生态环境问题,其根源在于人类活动强度超出了地下水资源承载能力,并缺乏及时有效的预警。为了构建更符合河北省实际的地下水资源承载能力评价体系,解决以往预警方法需要设置固定的水位、水量预警区间值,水位的区域差异导致的宏观性评价困难、工作量巨大且无法动态修正的问题,从地下水的资源属性和社会属性出发,采用指标体系综合分析评判法,建立承载本底、承载状态2个层面的承载能力评价体系;采用地下水开发利用程度为主,水位变化幅度加以修正的“双控联动”预警方法,实现两指标的动态联动且无需设置固定的水位、水量区间。研究表明河北省地下水资源承载本底整体较好,但由于开发利用程度高,承载状态多处于超载状态,承载能力太行山中南部高于北部及燕山山区、坝上地区,山前冲洪积平原优于中部湖积平原和滨海平原;受咸水分布、工农业生产取水量大等因素影响,地下水红色及橙色预警区域主要分布于河北平原中部冲湖积平原的沧州、衡水地区、太行山山前平原邯邢交界区域及城市市区周边。评价及预警结果与河北省实际情况吻合。该评价方法具有区域适用性强、可操作性好、数据易获取等优点。     

基于级别特征值的岩溶含水层水质模糊综合评价修正

为改进传统水质模糊综合评价中存在评价指标不能全面反映水质状况、评价结果不清晰,评价等级区分度不明显等缺陷,文章以位于六枝特区威宁-郎岱褶皱群的第一层岩溶含水层水质为例,根据岩溶区水质评价特点和研究区含水层超标因子特征,建立涵盖物理、化学和微生物等因子的评价指标体系,利用级别特征值对传统模糊综合评价结果进行了适当修正,并与综合污染指数法、传统模糊评价综合法的评价精度进行定量化比较。研究结果表明:六枝特区的研究区探采点水质综合评价等级都达到Ⅲ类生活饮用水卫生标准,但仍有71%的探采点存在氨氮（NH4+）、氟化物(F-)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、溶解性总固体（TDS）和大肠杆菌等指标超标,且超标因子浓度呈点状扩散分布于三叠系中下统地层;另外,传统模糊综合评价中有57.1%的水质达到Ⅰ类标准,与多个探采点存在因子超标的情况不符,而通过级别特征值修正的模糊综合评价结果中分别有57.1%和28.6%的探采点水质为Ⅱ类或Ⅲ类标准,与着重突出最大超标因子权重的综合指数法类别标准差低0.011。因此,基于级别特征值的模糊综合评价能有效的反映水质整体水平,探采点水样超标因子浓度和同类水质的区分度,评价结果合理、可信。      

基于熵权的模糊综合评价法在公路洪灾风险评价中的应用

公路洪灾是一个多因素耦合的复杂系统,本文针对公路洪灾风险的复杂性、模糊性及不确定性,构造了基于熵权的模糊综合评价模型,通过熵权使权重由主观判断转为由各指标数据之间的关系来确定,从危险性和易损性两方面选取24个评价因子,定量地对重庆境内渝黔高速公路进行洪灾风险评价。评价结果表明,熵权模糊综合评价法是科学可行的,为公路洪灾风险趋势预测以及风险等级划分提供了良好的分析方法,在实践中具有一定的应用价值。     

长江流域“2017·07”暴雨洪水分析

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