Monthly reservoir inflow forecasting using a new hybrid SARIMA genetic programming approach

Forecasting reservoir inflow is one of the most important components of water resources and hydroelectric systems operation management. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models have been frequently used for predicting river flow. SARIMA models are linear and do not consider the random component of statistical data. To overcome this shortcoming, monthly inflow is predicted in this study based on a combination of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and gene expression programming (GEP) models, which is a new hybrid method (SARIMA–GEP). To this end, a four-step process is employed. First, the monthly inflow datasets are pre-processed. Second, the datasets are modelled linearly with SARIMA and in the third stage, the non-linearity of residual series caused by linear modelling is evaluated. After confirming the non-linearity, the residuals are modelled in the fourth step using a gene expression programming (GEP) method. The proposed hybrid model is employed to predict the monthly inflow to the Jamishan Dam in west Iran. Thirty years’ worth of site measurements of monthly reservoir dam inflow with extreme seasonal variations are used. The results of this hybrid model (SARIMA–GEP) are compared with SARIMA, GEP, artificial neural network (ANN) and SARIMA–ANN models. The results indicate that the SARIMA–GEP model (R ²=78.8, VAF =78.8, RMSE =0.89, MAPE =43.4, CRM =0.053) outperforms SARIMA and GEP and SARIMA–ANN (R ²=68.3, VAF =66.4, RMSE =1.12, MAPE =56.6, CRM =0.032) displays better performance than the SARIMA and ANN models. A comparison of the two hybrid models indicates the superiority of SARIMA–GEP over the SARIMA–ANN model.     

Characterization of natural colloids from a river and spring in a karstic basin

 Colloids are known to transport contaminants over long distances in natural media. Despite this potentially harmful effect, very few studies have been undertaken in subsurface aquifers. This paper presents the first results of a study of natural colloids and particles in a karstic aquifer. The site was chosen for its coverage by clay layers and peat which deliver various and numerous particle types in water. The methodological part describes three methods used for size determination and sample fractionation of surface water and spring water. These methods have been adapted for the treatment of multiple samples due to the rapid discharge variation typical of karstic aquifers. The analysis of many particle size distributions (PSD) shows that they can be described by a Pareto law. The variation of the slope of the PSD at the spring is mainly dependent on discharge. This behavior is interpreted as a washing of the karstic drains during the first phase of high flow events. Fractionation of the samples allowed application of various characterization techniques to particle size classes. X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns showed that most of the mineral particles originated from Quaternary deposits and limestones. However the use of scanning electron micrsocopy with energy-dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS) detailed the composition of individual particles and revealed particles not found by XRD. These techniques also showed the high complexity of the natural particles and the important place of coprecipitation in their formation. Consequences on the fluxes of particulate matter and its potential role as a carrier of contaminants are discussed. Received: 28 October 1996 · Accepted: 7 July 1997     

Compilation simulation of surface water and groundwater resources using the SWAT-MODFLOW model for a karstic basin in Iran

Modeling of karstic basins can provide a better understanding of the interactions between surface water and groundwater, a more accurate estimation of infiltrated water amount, and a more reliable water balance calculation. In this study, the hydrological simulation of a karstic basin in a semiarid region in Iran was performed in three different stages. In the first stage, the original SWAT model was used to simulate surface-water flow. Then, the SWAT-MODFLOW conjunctive model was implemented according to the groundwater characteristics of the study area. Finally, due to the karstic characteristics of the region and using the CrackFlow (CF) package, the SWAT-MODFLOW-CF conjunctive model was developed to improve the simulation results. The coefficient of determination (R²) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) as error evaluation criteria were calculated for the models, and their average values were 0.63 and 0.57 for SWAT, 0.68 and 0.61 for SWAT-MODFLOW, 0.73 and 0.7 for SWAT-MODFLOW-CF, respectively. Moreover, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of the calibration for groundwater simulation using the SWAT-MODFLOW model were 1.23 and 1.77 m, respectively. These values were 1.01 and 1.33 m after the calibration of the SWAT-MODFLOW-CF model. After modifying the CF code and keeping the seams and cracks open in both dry and wet conditions, the amount of infiltrated water increased and the aquifer water level rose. Therefore, the SWAT-MODFLOW-CF conjunctive model can be proposed for use in karstic areas containing a considerable amount of both surface water and groundwater resources.

     

Catchment scale geostatistical simulation and uncertainty of soil erodibility using sequential Gaussian simulation

Soil erodibility (K) affects sediment delivery to streams and needs to be appropriately quantified and interpolated as a fundamental geographic variable for implementing suitable catchment management and conservation practices. The spatial distribution of K for erosion modelling at non-sampling grid locations has traditionally been estimated using interpolation algorithms such as kriging which do not adequately represent the uncertainty of estimates. These methods cause smoothing effects through overestimating the low values and underestimating the large values. In this study observed values were used to implement a sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) procedure to evaluate the certainty of modelled data. Soil erodibility values were computed using 41 soil samples taken from the top 10 cm soil layer regularly distributed across four catchments, 367–770 ha in area, within Kangaroo River State forest, New South Wales (NSW). One hundred realisations were applied in the simulation process to provide spatial uncertainty and error estimates of soil erodibility. The results indicated that values simulated by the SGS algorithm produced similar K values for the neighbouring cells. At the pixel level, the SGS approach generated a reliable estimation of soil erodibility in most areas. Spatial variation of the K factor in this study was strongly related to soil landscape differences across the catchments; within catchments slope gradient did not have a substantial impact on the numerical values of the K factor using pixel-by-pixel comparisons of raster grid maps.     

动力固结流—固耦合模型的求解方法

以三维多孔介质中基本方程为基础，提出了动力固结问题的力学模型，给出了相应的变分原理及其有限元格式，用轴对称问题的有限单元法模拟了单点单次夯击过程，给出了详细的求解方法及算例，并将计算结果与现场实测资料作了比较。     

河网水流智能模拟技术及应用

针对城市河网缺乏足够的实测资料和河网水动力学模型模拟速度慢的特点,提出将河网水动力学模型与遗传算法、神经网络方法结合,建立河网智能模型。模型中,利用河网水动力学模型提供神经网络所需的信息,遗传算法用于优化神经网络的初始权重。将该模型应用于上海市浦东新区河网中,智能模拟结果与经过实测资料验证的河网水动力学模型的模拟结果吻合较好,表明河网智能模型精度与水动力学模型接近。同时实时性较好,可用来预测河网水位变化特性,也为今后类似研究提供一种模拟技术。     

Fluid flow modeling of a coastal fractured karstic aquifer by means of a lumped parameter approach

Fluid flow and solute transport phenomena in fractured and karstic aquifers remain an open issue that calls the attention of numerous researchers belonging to different disciplinary fields as far as the aspects linked both to shallow and to deep phenomena are concerned. The hydrogeologic knowledge of these phenomena proves to be of high importance especially if considered in relationship with water resource exploitation, with the problems linked to contamination and the ones linked to urban and industrial development of the territory. In the examined area, characterized by a dismissed contaminated site, the realization of the landfill has required the development of a 3D flow model supported by a detailed local scale geologic model in order to evaluate the effects on groundwater flow and subsequently on contaminant propagation. The results of the flow model prove to be coherent with the fractured and karstic nature of the site in that they show at higher depths the presence of a subterranean stream channel that would speed up pollutant propagation. The obtained results represent the fundamental basis to implement a transport model that will permit to achieve a more in depth knowledge of the subsoil transport phenomena, and therefore to optimize any anthropic intervention that can involve the site.     

Seepage simulation using pipe network flow model in a discrete element system

The pipe network flow model can simulate the seepage process with DEM conveniently because of its simple algorithm. However, whether it can recover the correct seepage process has not been verified. In this paper, the equation to update the fluid pressure is rebuilt according to the flow conservation. Through the steady seepage simulation, this algorithm is verified to be able to recover Darcy’s law, and the equation to calibrate the aperture according to macro permeability is derived. Furthermore, the modified algorithm is used to simulate the unsteady seepage process, and the results show good agreement with the analytical solutions.     

丽江市黑龙潭泉群断流的人工神经网络模拟

近年来,云南省丽江市著名景点黑龙潭泉群断流频发,这将严重威胁丽江市旅游业的可持续发展。为了正确认识黑龙潭泉群断流的原因,并掌握其发生的规律,本文在对该泉群的水文地质条件、降水量和断流的关系进行分析的基础上,对该泉群的断流情况开展了人工神经网络模拟研究。本文发现黑龙潭泉群属于非全排型山前断裂溢流岩溶泉;年降水量不足与该泉群的断流具有一定的因果关系;构建了网络拓扑结构为6-13-3的 BP 人工神经网络模型对黑龙潭泉群的不同断流情况进行了模拟,该模型以前期降水量、温度与湿度作为输入向量参数,以1953-2002年的数据作为训练样本,以2003-2012年的数据作为模型检验样本,检验结果与实际情况吻合度约为90%,表明该模型可以较好地模拟黑龙潭泉群的断流情况。     

基于栖息地突变分析的春汛期生态需水阈值模型

根据春汛期水生态系统的特点,应用河道内流量增量法,选用二维河流模型River2D,建立栖息地与流量变化的动态关系,进而应用Mann-Kendall方法,开发基于栖息地突变分析的生态需水阈值模型。以第二松花江支流辉发河五道沟断面附近河段为例,选择松花江流域分布较为广泛的鲤鱼作为对象物种,以流速和水深两个因素表征鱼类栖息地,利用1956～2000年45年的春汛期月径流资料,判定鱼类栖息地在1970年开始发生了突变。在突变前加权可用面积95%的置信区间范围为275.5～915.7m2/km,对应的流量范围为58.8～121.1m3/s,并将其作为研究区春汛期间的生态需水阈值。春汛发生在冰封期刚刚结束的时段,适宜的春汛期生态需水能够提高生态系统多样性,对于鱼类等水生生物乃至于整个生态系统都有重要的生态意义。     

土石方开挖随机模糊仿真技术研究

考虑了土石方开挖工程中的大量随机模糊现象,利用计算机仿真技术,开发出土石方开挖仿真系统。探讨了土石方开挖工程仿真系统的开发技术,并重点研究了随机模糊仿真模型的建立问题。所建立的仿真模型可以较好地反映土石方开挖施工过程,仿真系统可以为优化设计方案以及决策提供有效分析方法和评估依据。     

用Gao-Yong湍流方程组数值模拟高雷诺数顶盖驱动方腔流

基于有限元方法中的虚位移原理,写出了不可压流Gao-Yong湍流方程组弱形式的微分方程表达式,利用有限元程序自动生成系统(FEPG)得到了全部有限元计算程序。对二维顶盖驱动方腔流进行了数值模拟,得到了方腔内的涡量分布和中心线上的速度变化曲线,并且成功地模拟出了高雷诺数时方腔内的双涡结构,计算结果与文献提供基准解符合良好。进一步证实了Gao-Yong湍流方程组能够准确模拟复杂湍流粘性场,并且为Gao-Yong湍流方程组的工程应用奠定了基础。     

Numerical simulation of liquefaction in porous media using nonlinear fluid flow law

It is well known that for a sufficiently high seepage velocity, the governing flow law of porous media is nonlinear (J. Computers & Fluids 2010; 39 : 2069–2077). However, this fact has not been considered in the studies of soil‐pore fluid interaction and in conventional soil mechanics. In the present paper, a fully explicit dynamic finite element method is developed for nonlinear Darcy law. The governing equations are expressed for saturated porous media based on the extension of the Biot (J. Appl. Phys. 1941; 12 : 155–164) formulation. The elastoplastic behavior of soil under earthquake loading is simulated using a generalized plasticity theory that is composed of a yield surface along with non‐associated flow rule. Numerical simulations of porous media subjected to horizontal and vertical components of ground motion excitations with different permeability coefficients are carried out; while computed maximum pore water pressure is specially taken into consideration to make the difference between Darcy and non‐Darcy flow regimes tangible. Finally, the effect of non‐Darcy flow on the evaluated liquefaction potential of sand in comparison to conventional Darcy law is examined. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tank-reservoir drainage as a simulation of the recession limb of karst spring hydrographs

Drainage of a cylindrical water-filled tank-reservoir has been analysed by different physical models, providing relative discharge-time equations. The process has been simulated (1) in a condition of free-flow discharge, where no energy is lost during the process, and (2) where friction forces and water viscosity take effect. Simulation (1) is considered to be a Torricelli reservoir, characterised by a linear decrease of discharge; (2) is based on Darcy’s law or on Poiseuille’s law, where discharge decreases exponentially with time, giving a straight line in the semilogarithm plot. For the Darcy’s law simulation, the tank tube was filled with sand. The cylindrical water-filled tank-reservoir drainage analysis has been applied to simulation of the actual shape of karst spring hydrographs. It has been determined that the recession coefficient, α, is proportional to a hydraulic constant, c, which represents the hydraulic characteristics during the baseflow recession, and α is inversely proportional to the product of the water-table area with the effective porosity. This product expresses the area of the aquifer filled by free-flowing water along the water table and can vary during the aquifer drainage.     

碎屑流沿坡面运动的数值模拟

根据Savage提出的碎屑流运动方程,分析了碎屑流沿坡面下滑过程中的运动特性,包括速度分布和高度分布的变化。重点考察了床面摩擦系数、土体内摩擦角、初始运动速度和坡角等因素对碎屑流运动形态的影响。研究表明,在不同的因素组合情况下,碎屑体的运动形态有明显的区别。土体内摩擦角和坡角对碎屑流的运动形态和最大运动距离影响明显。相对来说,床面摩擦角对碎屑流的最大运动距离影响不明显,这可能是因为床面摩擦只影响靠近床面的部分物质的运动     

Thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of fracturing porous media with two-phase fluid flow using X-FEM technique

In this paper, a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model is presented for two-phase fluid flow and heat transfer in fractured/fracturing porous media using the extended finite element method. In the fractured porous medium, the traction, heat, and mass transfer between the fracture space and the surrounding media are coupled. The wetting and nonwetting fluid phases are water and gas, which are assumed to be immiscible, and no phase-change is considered. The system of coupled equations consists of the linear momentum balance of solid phase, wetting and nonwetting fluid continuities, and thermal energy conservation. The main variables used to solve the system of equations are solid phase displacement, wetting fluid pressure, capillary pressure, and temperature. The fracture is assumed to impose the strong discontinuity in the displacement field and weak discontinuities in the fluid pressure, capillary pressure, and temperature fields. The mode I fracture propagation is employed using a cohesive fracture model. Finally, several numerical examples are solved to illustrate the capability of the proposed computational algorithm. It is shown that the effect of thermal expansion on the effective stress can influence the rate of fracture propagation and the injection pressure in hydraulic fracturing process. Moreover, the effect of thermal loading is investigated properly on fracture opening and fluids flow in unsaturated porous media, and the convective heat transfer within the fracture is captured successfully. It is shown how the proposed computational model is capable of modeling the fully coupled thermal fracture propagation in unsaturated porous media.     

Coupled consolidation and heat flow analysis of layered soils surrounding cylindrical heat sources using a precise integration technique

The engineering applications of energy piles, geological radioactive waste disposals, and mining wells of geothermal and petroleum are usually associated with strong coupled behaviour of consolidation and heat flow. This paper aims to present an efficient precise integration technique (PIT) for the analysis of such behaviour within layered saturated soils surrounding cylindrical heat sources (ie, with a cross section as a point, ring, or disc). Each soil layer, together with its embedded part of heat source, is divided into 2^N layer elements with equal thickness. Then any pair of adjacent two layer elements are merged into a heat source on the interface. With the aid of Taylor series expansion and recurrence formula for adjacent layer elements combination, such problems can be solved by means of an improved PIT. Typical examples are performed to examine the effects of heat source type and soils layered properties on the coupled consolidation and heat flow responses. The elevation of the clay surface increases with time because of thermal expansion and reaches a peak value before showing a tendency of getting stabilised because of the dissipation of pore pressure becoming dominant. Such a peak cannot be achieved in sand case because of no accumulation of pore pressure. The influencing area of the heat source was found to be limited to near the source. These quantitative results serve as good verification of the presented technique, which proves to be remarkably efficient and several orders more accurate than traditional numerical techniques in that it ideally reaches the accuracy limit of the hardware of the computers used.     

基于颗粒流模型的TBM滚刀破岩过程数值模拟研究

为了研究全断面岩石掘进机（TBM）盘型滚刀的破岩机制及其影响因素,采用颗粒流方法建立了岩石与滚刀的二维数值模型,实现了对TBM滚刀破岩过程的模拟。分析表明,滚刀的破岩过程可分为冲击挤压破碎、大量微裂纹生成、张拉性主裂纹扩展3个阶段,证实了滚刀破岩的挤压-张拉破坏理论。在滚刀侵入深度相同的前提下,随着刀圈刃角以及刃宽的增加,滚刀下的压碎区也相应增大,张拉性主裂纹数目增多,滚刀的破岩能力提高;与平刃刀圈相比,楔刃刀圈的“楔块劈裂”作用更加显著,使径向裂纹扩展得更快且更深入岩石内部。TBM滚刀对强度较高或较低岩石的破坏损伤较小,而对中等强度的岩石破坏损伤最为显著。