地震重点监视防御区政府职能的现有制度安排

全国地震重点监视防御区制度是控制地震社会风险的重要法律制度.本文在对现行文献研究的基础上,通过对地震重点监视防御区政府职能现有制度安排研究,梳理政府职能及强化措施,研讨存在的主要问题.为加强地震重点监视防御区的政府职能,提出了中央和地方政府社会管理和公共服务职能的建议.     

从风险社会理论视角看全国地震重点监视防御区制度的作用

地震灾害风险是中国社会可能遭遇的重大风险之一,地震灾害产生的社会风险具有显著的风险社会特征,本文从风险社会理论的视角分析了全国地震重点监视防御区制度的作用.文中梳理并整理了全国地震重点监视防御区的概念、确定的过程、全国地震重点监视防御区制度的内涵与建构过程,并以此为基础分析了全国地震重点监视防御区制度对控制我国重大社会风险的作用.本文认为,应在风险社会理论的指导下不断完善全国地震重点监视防御区制度,并将之贯彻到政府改革和社会治理的各个环节.     

中国大陆1996 ～ 2012 年地震重点监视防御区制度实施现状与成效分析

地震重点监视防御区制度,是《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》确立的法律制度.在地震重点监视防御区制度实践方面,我国已完成第一期地震重点监视防御区方案的实施,即1996年国务院批准的1996 ～2005年全国地震重点监视防御区方案.目前,正在实施的是第二期地震重点监视防御区方案,即2006年国务院批准的2006 ～2020年全国地震重点监视防御区方案.在国家社科基金重大项目支持下,本文对1996～ 2012年全国地震重点监视防御区制度的实施现状进行了追踪,对实施成效进行了总结.从1996～ 2012年的震例和调查数据看,减灾效果明显.在此基础上,提出了完善地震重点监视防御区制度的对策与建议.     

编者按

<正>全国地震重点监视防御区是依据中长期地震危险性和地震风险分布确定的具有高地震风险且必须采取防震减灾强化措施的区域。全国地震重点监视防御区的空间位置和范围由国务院颁布,所采取的强化防震减灾措施由《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》和各级政府规章规定。现行全国地震重点监视防御区是2006年由国务院颁布实施的,其编制技术思路和主要工作内容已于2006年发表在本刊第22卷第3期1。为更好地实施全国地震重点监视防     

地震重点监视防御区制度实施现状调查(山东市级)

以山东省市级防震减灾工作为研究对象,在全国范围内组织开展了两次(2007年、2012年)地震重点监视防御区制度实施情况问卷调查,根据回收的问卷从市级防震减灾组织机构、经费投入、监测预报、震害防御、应急救援和宣传教育等6个方面14项指标人手,对比地震重点监视防御区和非地震重点监视防御区防震减灾工作在两个调查年度的发展、变化,分析研究地震重点监视防御区制度在山东省(市级)的实施现状和成效.将两个调查年度描述山东省防震减灾工作进展的主要指标与全国相应指标的均值进行了对比研究.并对防震减灾工作的“山东现象”进行了分析.     

地震重点监视防御区制度实施现状调查分析(山东县级)

本文以山东省县级防震减灾工作为研究对象,对中国地震局在全国范围内开展的两次地震重点监视防御区制度实施情况调查问卷进行了统计分析,从组织机构、经费预算、监测预报、震害防御、应急救援和宣传教育等6个方面的14项具体指标展开对比分析,通过对各项指标在时间纵向的发展变化、在重防区内外的发展差异以及与全国同期水平的对比分析,详细总结了地震重点监视防御区制度在山东省县级层面的实施现状及其原因,并提出了推进地震重点监视防御区制度实施的政策建议.     

关于地震工作分区分类指导的讨论

本文提出地震工作分区分类指导概念，根据震情、人口、经济特点和地震监测预报工作基础划分出重点监视防御区和非重点监视防御区，认为建立减灾体系，进行短临预报追踪、决策，进行震害预测，作好震前减灾准备，开展减灾教育，编制应急方案，系重点防御区工作的主要内容。同时指出非重点监视防御区也应根据各自的特点做好正常的地震监测和防震减灾建设。     

关于地震重点监视防御区信息公开问题的讨论

地震重点监视防御区(以下简称“地震重防区”)制度是《防震减灾法》确立的基本法律制度之一.在《防震减灾法》的指导下,部分省制定出台了地方政府规章,进一步细化了这一法律制度.在法律实践方面,1996年国务院批准了1996-2005年全国地震重防区方案,2006年又批准了2006-2020年全国地震重防区方案.     

确定全国地震重点监视防御区的研究

首先阐述确定地震重点监视防御区的分级原则（分为国家级和省级），突出重点原则（重点监视防御区面积占全国或省辖面积的较小部分，而其地震损失占总和的大部分）和科学技术思路（以地震危险性预测为基础，以灾害损失的预测为依据确定地震重点监视防御区）。其次，回顾了确定1996～2005年全国地震重点监视防御区的研究成果。回顾表明，在1996～2005年间，发生在我国大陆有监测能力地区的10次强震中，有8次发生在防御区内及其邻近地区，其经济和生命损失已分别占大陆的67％和92％。最后，简要介绍为确定2006-2020年全国地震重点监视防御区而开展的研究工作，包括基于地震学、地震地质学、大地测量学、地震工程学、社会学和预测学而进行的10年尺度的中长期地震危险预测研究，以及所得到的2006-2020年全国地震危险概率预测图、地震危险性（烈度）预测图、地震灾害损失预测图和地震危险性综合指数预测图等。     

关于全国地震重点监视防御区制度实施现状、成效之调查、设计的说明

为评估全国地震重点监视防御区制度的实施现状、成效,课题组对相关问题进行了定性和定量研究,定量研究以系列问卷调查为主,包括政府、社区和公众问卷等。本文重点说明了系列问卷调查的设计、抽样以及回收情况,并对问卷调查发现的问题做了简单介绍。     

福建沿海、台湾海峡GPS观测分析及地球动力学特征研究

利用 3期GPS联测结果所获得的福建沿海地壳水平运动信息 ,采用ITRF94全球框架为基础的GPS测站地壳运动模型及其处理软件 ,对所获得的观测数据进行处理和精度分析。得到福建省高精度的GPS测站大地坐标、边长及其位移矢量 ,其精度达到 1 7×10 - 8。计算了福建地壳运动速率、主应变率 ,东西与南北向线应变率、面应变率、剪应变率、大地转动率和最大剪应变率等值线并给出了它们的分布图象。根据多年形变和现今GPS观测资料 ,分析福建地壳垂直运动与水平运动 ,显示区域应力场优势分布特征。最后 ,对福建沿海及台湾海峡地壳动力学特征作了初步的探讨     

Relationship of the Magnetic-Field Strength and the Brightness of the Sunspot Umbra and the Center of a Facular Knot

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Two main features define a sunspot as an object: a strong magnetic field and a low umbra temperature. The same can be said about a facular knot, in the center of which...     

太行山与燕山交汇部位的地壳厚度与泊松比分布特征

本文搜集了2001—2013年间在太行山与燕山构造带交汇部位先后布设的4个宽频带流动地震台阵和首都圈固定地震台网共192个台站记录到的全球5.5级以上远震事件波形资料,综合采用接收函数H-κ和CCP叠加分析获得了134个基岩台站下方的地壳厚度和泊松比结果.综合分析与前人研究相吻合但更加精细的地壳约束分布信息,发现研究区域的地壳厚度和泊松比在整体上呈现出从西北到东南方向渐变的特征,在南北重力梯度带两侧及其附近呈现出明显的小尺度地壳结构和物质组分的差异,且可明显区分出太行山地区和燕山构造带及盆山交界处的地壳厚度与泊松比的相对差异,这可能反映了这些地区在华北克拉通的构造演化过程中所经历的不同地壳改造过程.     

Some space gravity formulas and the dimensions and the mass of the Earth

Summary Adopting thePizzetti-Somigliana method and using elliptic integrals we have obtained closed formulas for the space gravity field in which one of the equipotential surfaces is a triaxial ellipsoid. The same formulas are also obtained in first approximation of the equatorial flattening avoiding the use of the elliptic integrals. Using data from satellites and Earth gravity data the gravitational and geometric bulge of the Earth's equator are computed. On the basis of these results and on the basis of recent gravity data taken around the equator between the longitudes 50° to 100° E, 155° to 180° E, and 145° to 180° W, we question the advantage of using a triaxial gravity formula and a triaxial ellipsoid in geodesy. Closed formulas for the space field in which a biaxial ellipsoid is an equipotential surface are also derived in polar coordinates and its parameters are specialized to give the international gravity formula values on the international ellipsoid. The possibility to compute the Earth's dimensions from the present Earth gravity data is the discussed and the value ofMG=(3.98603×10²⁰ cm³ sec^–2) (M mass of the Earth,G gravitational constant) is computed. The agreement of this value with others computed from the mean distance Earth-Moon is discussed. The Legendre polinomials series expansion of the gravitational potential is also added. In this series the coefficients of the polinomials are closed formulas in terms of the flattening andMG.Publication Number 327, and Istituto di Geodesia e Geofisica of Università di Trieste.     

地震社会心理初探与政府的疏导防治对策

针对我国当前较具典型的几种地震社会心理，指出职能部门疏导、防治的工作重点，并从顺应国情、民情及国家经济体制改革的方向出发，提出相应的对策建议。     

Theory of the evolution of the earth and the earth's crust

Summary The paleomagnetic field (declination and inclination) in different geological epochs is represented through the field of the so-called magnetic dipole. The optimal dipole coordinates so obtained show that during older geological times the optimal dipole lay outside the earth's centre and moved towards and around the earth centre. It is supposed that the optimal dipole trajectory in the earth coincides with earth core trajectory. This core motion brought about a motion of the masses of the mantle in a direction opposite to the motion of the core. This in turn brought about the break-down of Pangea and the separation of the continents. The drift of the continents, the relative changing of the earth's rotational axis and many other geological and geophysical phenomena may be explained through such a motion, that is through the motion of an eccentrical core towards the earth centre.     

Comparison Between the Nutations of the Planet Mars and the Nutations of the Earth

The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.     

Modeling of the planetary structure of the ionosphere and the protonosphere coupling

A planetary model of the ionosphere and the protonosphere coupling is described. The system of three-dimensional nonstationary modeling equations of continuity and motion for the ions O⁺ and H⁺ is presented. Some numerical results of model calculations are compared with the experimental data. The important role of electromagnetic drifts in the formation of large-scale morphological peculiarities of the ionosphere and the protonosphere coupling is shown.     

On the gravimetric undulations of the geoid and the deflections of the vertical

Summary The author mentions the aims of the World-wide gravity project he established in the Ohio State University in Columbus, in 1950. He outlines the practical procedure of the gravimetric computations of the undulationsN and the vertical deflection components and and emphasizes that only by the global international cooperation and additional gravity observations at sea carried out during the last decade it has been possible to gather to Columbus the needed gravity material. Since there exist still large gravimetrically unsurveyed areas it is of vital significance to study what gravity anomalies are best to be used for these regions. The given figures concerning the accuracy of theN, and , estimated theoretically and obtained in practice, indicate that in the gravimetrically well surveyed parts of the world like in Europe and the United States we can get gravimetrically on basis of existing gravity material theN-values with accuracy of about 5–10 meters, and and with the accuracy of about 1. The geoid undulationsN are already computed in Columbus for more than 6000 points of the northern hemisphere. The sample maps show the interesting geoid of Europe and vicinity between the latitudes 60° and 30° and longitude 5° W and 30° E, drafted on basis of more than 1000N-values computed at the corners of 1°×1° squares. It is interesting to realize that the geoid undulations in all this area are positive, the extreme values being between 40 and 50 meters. The geophysical significance of the geoid maps of this kind is pointed out.     

长江中下游及邻区地震各向异性对区域构造演化的启示

大别山东缘和长江中下游地区是我国东部构造格局最复杂的地区之一.为深入理解和认识该区的构造演化过程和壳幔变形特征, 本文利用NW-SE向跨越长江中下游地区的密集宽频带流动地震台站数据, 开展了远震接收函数Pms各向异性研究, 并结合已有研究进一步分析了该区地壳与上地幔各向异性特征及其产生机制.结果表明: 长江中下游及邻区地壳各向异性呈明显的横向分区性, 华北克拉通东南部以近NWW向为主, 而长江中下游和华南东北部以NE向为主.在垂向上, 该区地壳与上地幔各向异性方向也存在明显差异, Pms各向异性快波方向与XKS(PKS, SKS, SKKS)快波偏振方向整体上存在30°~60°左右差异, 形成了该区壳幔各向异性的"立交桥"式分层结构.本研究认为印支期和燕山期的区域构造演化差异以及华北与华南块体的流变学强度不同是造成该区壳幔各向异性"立交桥"式分层结构的重要因素.华北地区Pms各向异性特征反映了华南与华北块体在印支期陆陆碰撞所形成的中下地壳变形痕迹, 华南东北部地区的Pms各向异性则主要受控于燕山期古太平洋板块俯冲造成的陆内挤压作用.燕山期古太平洋板块的北西向俯冲作用不仅导致了软流圈物质沿NW或近W向流动和橄榄岩矿物晶体的定向排列, 也在地壳和岩石圈尺度产生了陆内挤压作用并最终导致了目前观测到的中下地壳变形和各向异性特征.