Modelling suspended sediment discharge in a glaciated Arctic catchment–Lake Peters,Northeast Brooks Range,Alaska

Seasonal suspended sediment transfer in glaciated catchments is responsive to meteorological, geomorphological, and glacio-fluvial conditions, and thus is a useful indicator of environmental system dynamics. Knowledge of multifaceted fluvial sediment-transfer processes is limited in the Alaskan Arctic – a region sensitive to contemporary environmental change. For two glaciated sub-catchments at Lake Peters, northeast Brooks Range, Alaska, we conducted a two-year endeavour to monitor the hydrology and meteorology, and used the data to derive multiple-regression models of suspended sediment load. Statistical selection of the best models shows that incorporating meteorological or temporal explanatory variables improves performances of turbidity- and discharge-based sediment models. The resulting modelled specific suspended sediment yields to Lake Peters are: 33 (20–60) t km⁻² yr⁻¹ in 2015, and 79 (50–140) t km⁻² yr⁻¹ in 2016 (95% confidence band estimates). In contrast to previous studies in Arctic Alaska, fluvial suspended sediment transfer to Lake Peters was primarily influenced by rainfall, and secondarily influenced by temperature-driven melt processes associated with clockwise diurnal hysteresis. Despite different sub-catchment glacier coverage, specific yields were the same order of magnitude from the two primary inflows to Lake Peters, which are Carnivore Creek (128 km²; 10% glacier coverage) and Chamberlin Creek (8 km²; 23% glacier coverage). Seasonal to longer-term sediment exhaustion and/or contrasting glacier dynamics may explain the lower than expected relative specific sediment yield from the more heavily glacierized Chamberlin Creek catchment. Absolute suspended sediment yield (t yr⁻¹) from Carnivore Creek to Lake Peters was 27 times greater than from Chamberlin Creek, which we attribute to catchment size and sediment supply differences. Our results provide a foundational understanding of the current sediment transfer regime and are useful for predicting changes in fluvial sediment transport in glaciated Alaskan Arctic catchments.     

Can channel banks be the dominant source of fine sediment in a UK river?: an example using 137Cs to interpret sediment yield and sediment source

Cultivated fields have been shown to be the dominant sources of sediment in almost all investigated UK catchments, typically contributing 85 to 95% of sediment inputs. As a result, most catchment management strategies are directed towards mitigating these sediment inputs. However, in many regions of the UK such as the Nene basin there is a paucity of sediment provenance data. This study used the caesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) inventories of lake and floodplain cores as well as the ¹³⁷Cs activities of present day sediment to determine sediment provenance. Sediment yields were also reconstructed in a small lake catchment. Low ¹³⁷Cs inventories were present in the lake and floodplain cores in comparison to the reference inventory and inventories in cores from other UK catchments. Caesium‐137 activities in the present day sediments were low; falling close to those found in the channel bank catchment samples. It was estimated that 60 to 100% of the sediment in the Nene originated from channel banks. Pre‐1963 sediment yields were approximately 11.2 t km^?2 yr^?1 and post‐1963 was approximately 11.9 t km^?2 yr^?1. The lack of increased sediment yield post‐1963 and low sediment yield is unusual for a UK catchment (where a yield of 28 to 51 t km^?2 yr^?1 is typical for a lowland agricultural catchment), but is explained by the low predicted contribution of sediment from agricultural topsoils. The high channel bank contribution is likely caused by the river being starved of sediment from topsoils, increasing its capacity to entrain bank material. The good agreement between the results derived using cores and recently transported sediments, highlight the reliability of ¹³⁷Cs when tracing sediment sources. However, care should be taken to assess the potential impacts of sediment particle size, sediment focusing in lakes and the possible remobilization of ¹³⁷Cs from sedimentary deposits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of pro‐glacial lakes on downstream sediment delivery in Norway

Glacier recessions caused by climate change may uncover pro‐glacial lakes that form important sedimentation basins regulating the downstream sediment delivery. The impact of modern pro‐glacial lakes on fluvial sediment transport from three different Norwegian glaciers: Nigardsbreen, Engabreen and Tunsbergdalsbreen, and their long‐term development has been studied. All of these lakes developed in modern times in overdeepened bedrock basins. The recession of Nigardsbreen uncovered a 1.8 km long and on average 15 m deep pro‐glacial lake basin during 1937 to 1968. Since then the glacier front has been situated entirely on land, and the sediment input and output of the lake has been measured. The suspended sediment transport into and out of the lake averaged 11 730 t yr^?1 and 2340 t yr^?1 respectively. Thus, 20% remained in suspension at the outlet. The measured mean annual bedload supplied to the lake was 11 800 t yr^?1, giving a total transport of 23 530 t yr^?1 which corresponds to a specific sediment yield of 561 t km^?2 yr^?1. A 1.9 km long and up to 90 m deep pro‐glacial lake basin downstream from Engabreen glacier was uncovered during 1890 to 1944. The average suspended sediment load delivered from the glacier during the years 1970–1981 amounted to 12 375 t yr^?1and the transport out of the lake was 2021 t yr^?1, giving an average of 16% remaining in suspension. The mean annual bedload was 8000 t yr^?1, thus the total transport was 20 375 t yr^?1, giving a specific sediment yield of 566 t km^?2 yr^?1. For Tunsbergdalsbreen glacier, measurements in the early 1970s indicated that the suspended sediment transport was on average 44 000 t yr^?1. From 1987 to 1993 the recession of the glacier uncovered a small pro‐glacial lake, 0.3 km long and around 9 m deep. Downstream from this, the suspended sediment load measured in 2009 was 28 000 t yr^?1, indicating that as much as 64% remained in suspension. Flow velocity, grain size of sediment, and morphology of the lake are important factors controlling the sedimentation rate in the pro‐glacial lakes. A survey of the sub‐glacial morphology of Tunsbergdalsbreen revealed that there are several overdeepened basins beneath the glacier. The largest is 4 km long and 100 m deep. When the glacier melts back they will become lakes and act as sedimentation basins. Despite an expected increase in sediment yield from the glacier, little sediment will pass these lakes and downstream sediment delivery will be reduced markedly. Beneath Nigardsbreen there was only a small depression that may form a lake and the sediment delivery will not be significantly affected. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Sediment characteristics and wind-induced sediment dynamics in shallow Lake Markermeer, the Netherlands

In 2007/08, a study was undertaken on the sediment dynamics in shallow Lake Markermeer (the Netherlands). Firstly, sediment characteristics were determined at 49 sites in the lake. Parameters such as median grain size and loss on ignition showed a spatial as well as water depth related pattern, indicating wind-induced sediment transport. Highly significant correlations were found between all sediment parameters. Lake Markermeer sediment dynamics were investigated in a sediment trap field survey at two permanent stations in the lake. Sediment yields, virtually all coming from sediment resuspension, were significantly correlated with average wind speeds, though periods of extreme winds also played a role. Sediment resuspension rates for Lake Markermeer were high, viz. on average ca. 1,000 g m⁻² day⁻¹. The highly dynamic nature of Lake Markermeer sediments must be due to the overall shallowness of the lake, together with its large surface area (dynamic ratio = [√(area)]/[average depth] = 7.5); wind-induced waves and currents will impact most of the lake’s sediment bed. Indeed, near-bed currents can easily reach values >10 cm/s. Measurements of the thickness of the settled “mud” layer, as well as ¹³⁷Cs dating, showed that long-term deposition only takes place in the deeper SE area of the lake. Finally, lake sediment dynamics were investigated in preliminary laboratory experiments in a small “micro-flume”, applying increasing water currents onto five Lake Markermeer sediments. Sediment resuspension started off at 0.5–0.7 cm/s and showed a strongly exponential behaviour with respect to these currents.     

Revisiting lake sediment budgets: How the calculation of lake lifetime is strongly data and method dependent

Lake sedimentation has a fundamental impact on lake lifetime. In this paper, we show how sensitive calculation of the latter is to the quality of data available and assumptions made during analysis. Based on the collection of a large new dataset, we quantify the sediment masses (1) mobilized on the hillslopes draining towards Lake Tana (Ethiopia), (2) stored in the floodplains, (3) transported into the lake, (4) deposited in the lake and (5) delivered out from the lake so as to establish a sediment budget. In 2012–2013, suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge measurements were made at 13 monitoring stations, including two lake outlets. Altogether, 4635 SSC samples were collected and sediment rating curves that account for land cover conditions and rainfall seasonality were established for the 11 river stations, and mean monthly SSC was calculated for the outlets. Effects of the floodplain on rivers' sediment yield (SY) were investigated using measurements at both sides of the floodplains. SY from ungauged rivers was assessed using a model that includes catchment area and rainfall, whereas bedload and direct sediment input from lake shores were estimated. As a result, the gross annual SY was c. 39.55 (± 0.15) Mt, dominantly from Gilgel Abay and Gumara Rivers. The 2.57 (± 0.17) Mt sediment deposited in floodplains indicate that the floodplains serve as an important sediment sink. Moreover, annually c. 1.09 Mt of sediment leaves the lake through the two outlets. Annual sediment deposition in the lake was c. 36.97 (± 0.22) Mt and organic matter accumulation was 2.15 Mt, with a mean sediment trapping efficiency of 97%. Furthermore, SSC and SY are generally higher at the beginning of the rainy season because soils in cultivated fields are bare and loose due to frequent ploughing and seedbed preparation. Later in the season, increased crop and vegetation cover lead to a decrease in sediment production. Based on the established sediment budget with average rainfall, the lifetime of Lake Tana was estimated as 764 to 1032 years, which is shorter than what was anticipated in earlier studies. The sedimentation rate of Lake Tana (11.7 ± 0.1 kg m^?2 yr^?1) is in line with the sedimentation rates of larger lakes in the world, like Lake Dongting and Lake Kivu. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水利工程兴建后洞庭湖径流与泥沙的变化

本文根据1951—1988年洞庭湖及其入湖河流的水文泥沙资料,研究大型水利工程兴建后洞庭湖径流与泥沙的变化。研究表明,近40年来洞庭湖的径流量减少了29.2％,输沙量减少了48.7％。引起水沙变化的主要原因是荆江四口分流河床的淤积,使荆江入湖的径流量与输沙量减少。1966—1972年下荆江三个弯道裁弯取直,使荆江河床下切,导致荆江及其分流水位的下降,也促使荆江分流的流量与输沙量的减少。40年来洞庭湖水流变化的趋势对洞庭湖、江汉平原与长江中下游的防洪较为有利。     

Increasing chloride concentrations in Lake Constance: characterization of sources and estimation of loads

The chloride concentration in Lake Constance, by volume the second largest lake in Europe, has increased by a factor of 2.4 during the past 40 years. Based on a chloride budget for the year 2006, we estimated total chloride imports to the catchment at 101 kt year⁻¹. Road deicing salts contributed 52%, waste water 23%, farming 11%, soil weathering 9%, precipitation and solid waste incineration 3% to this import. River monitoring programs in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria in 2006 traced an average total chloride export from the catchment into Lake Constance of almost 70 kt and an export from the lake of 56 kt. About one-third of this load to the lake originated from the Alpine Rhine catchment (Switzerland), and about 60% from various smaller tributaries in Austria and Germany. The average annual import of chloride to Lake Constance for the years 1995–2007 was 60 kt, the export almost 57 kt. This budget is in good agreement with the observed increase in the chloride content of the lake and thus confirms the appropriateness and quality of the long-term monitoring program conducted by Swiss, German and Austrian laboratories. For the year 2006, we estimated that about 65% of the chloride spread onto roads for deicing and manure on cultivated land reached the lake within the year of their application. The missing 35% remained transiently in the soil and groundwater of the catchment.     

Sediment resuspension in two adjacent shallow coastal lakes: controlling factors and consequences on phosphate dynamics

A combination of field measurements, modelling and laboratory experiments was used to evaluate the potential impact of sediment resuspension on phosphorus (P) dynamics. The study was carried out in two adjacent shallow coastal lakes (Lake Honda and Lake Nueva) which, due to their geographic proximity (only 200 m apart), are subject to equal meteorological forcing and represent ideal systems to study how morphometry and sediment properties relate to wind events. The focusing factors (a measure of the fluxes of sediment into the water column through resuspension) estimated by comparing settling fluxes measured in surface sediment traps with those measured in bottom traps, were significantly larger (approximately 34% larger) in Lake Honda (LH; 1.18) than in Lake Nueva (LN; 0.88). Our model estimates of resuspension fluxes (E) were also ca. 40% larger in LH than in LN, in agreement with the observed focusing factors. The larger resuspension fluxes encountered in LH, in comparison with LN, can mainly be explained by differences in lake morphometry. Still, they could arise from differences in grain size distribution or in benthic algae concentration encountered in the lake sediments. By means of adsorption experiments in the laboratory, we show that resuspension events will have different effects on P-dynamics in LH and LN. While the resuspended material from LH tends to adsorb phosphate (PO₄ ³⁻), removing it from the water column, in LN the resuspended sediments tend to increase the availability of PO₄ ³⁻ in solution. These differences arise from (1) higher concentrations of PO₄ ³⁻ in water in LH compared to LN; and (2) larger PO₄ ³⁻adsorption capacity of the LH sediments as a result of the more abundant iron oxyhydroxides and clay.     

Sediment yields and sources in a welsh upland lake-catchment during the past 800 years

Estimates of suspended sediment yield over the past 800 years have been derived from a whole-basin study of lake sediments in Llyn Geirionydd, North Wales. Magnetic and physical sediment properties were used to correlate a suite of cores to a master chronology based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴C dates. The sources of sediment within the catchment were identified by comparing the magnetic and heavy metal properties of sediments, soils, and stream sediments. Mean suspended sediment yields range from 6 to 18 t km^?2 yr^?1 with high yields in the periods 1765-1830 and 1903-1985 corresponding to mining activities in the catchment. The impact of earlier deforestation, agricultural expansion, or climatic change on sediment yields is low, although there is evidence that agricultural activities increased levels of peak stream discharge. Afforestation in the 20th century does not appear to have significantly increased sediment yield. Sediment sources have remained fairly constant through time; they appear to be widespread and dominated by stream channel sides rather than point sources, except during the mining phases when spoil material has dominated the sediment load. Sediment loads to the lake today are still dominated by sediment derived from unvegetated spoil heaps.     

太湖不同湖区底泥悬浮沉降规律研究及内源释放量估算

太湖是一个大型浅水湖泊,湖湾、沿岸及湖心等区域受地形影响,湖流结构及水土界面水力要素均有显著差异.针对目前对不同湖区底泥再悬浮规律差异性研究的缺失,本研究选取了3个具有代表性的点采集太湖底泥,采用矩形水槽开展底泥再悬浮模拟实验,并结合太湖二维水量水质模型及太湖全年实测数据,建立了不同湖区底泥再悬浮通量与风速之间的定量关系;通过室内静沉降实验,得到了静沉降通量与风速的相关关系;最后将底泥再悬浮实验结果参数化应用于太湖二维水量水质模型中,并对底泥悬浮沉降过程进行分解和概化,估算太湖全年内源释放量.结果表明:太湖每日的内源释放量受风速影响显著,和风速变化趋势较为接近,太湖全年进入水体的净底泥量有47.81×104t,夏季最大,冬季次之;就营养物质释放量而言,COD约为2.06×104t、总氮约为1149.05 t、总磷约为564.35 t,其中秋季营养物质释放量最小,夏季最大.     

Sediment and fluvial particulate carbon flux from an eroding peatland catchment

Erosion and the associated loss of carbon is a major environmental concern in many peatlands and remains difficult to accurately quantify beyond the plot scale. Erosion was measured in an upland blanket peatland catchment (0.017 km²) in northern England using structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, sediment traps and stream sediment sampling at different spatial scales. A net median topographic change of –27 mm yr^–1 was recorded by SfM over the 12-month monitoring period for the entire surveyed area (598 m²). Within the entire surveyed area there were six nested catchments where both SfM and sediment traps were used to measure erosion. Substantial amounts of peat were captured in sediment traps during summer storm events after two months of dry weather where desiccation of the peat surface occurred. The magnitude of topographic change for the six nested catchments determined by SfM (mean value: 5.3 mm, standard deviation: 5.2 mm) was very different to the areal average derived from sediment traps (mean value: –0.3 mm, standard deviation: 0.1 mm). Thus, direct interpolation of peat erosion from local net topographic change into sediment yield at the catchment outlet appears problematic. Peat loss measured at the hillslope scale was not representative of that at the catchment scale. Stream sediment sampling at the outlet of the research catchment (0.017 km²) suggested that the yields of suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon were 926.3 t km^–2 yr^–1 and 340.9 t km^–2 yr^–1, respectively, with highest losses occurring during the autumn. Both freeze–thaw during winter and desiccation during long periods of dry weather in spring and summer were identified as important peat weathering processes during the study. Such weathering was a key enabler of subsequent fluvial peat loss from the catchment. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

骆马湖营养盐收支

根据对骆马湖1998年度营养盐（氮,磷）收入和支出的研究,结果表明,入湖氮,磷量分别为15764．78t和1035．53t,其中通过河道入湖的氮磷量最大,其年入湖氮磷量分别为13598．05t和942．35t,分别占总来源量的86．3％和91．0％,氮,磷在骆马湖湖体中的滞留量和沉降量较,滞留量分别为1532．65t和221．63t,分别占总来源量的9．7％和21．4％,沉积量分别为205．47t和199．95吨,分别占总业源量的1．3％和19．3％,湖水氮,磷蓄积变化大,湖水浓度升高较快,氮磷负荷较大,年平均负荷量分别为总氮42．04％g/m^2和总磷2．76g/m,^2。     

Combining suspended sediment monitoring and fingerprinting to determine the spatial origin of fine sediment in a mountainous river catchment

An excess of fine sediment (grain size <2 mm) supply to rivers leads to reservoir siltation, water contamination and operational problems for hydroelectric power plants in many catchments of the world, such as in the French Alps. These problems are exacerbated in mountainous environments characterized by large sediment exports during very short periods. This study combined river flow records, sediment geochemistry and associated radionuclide concentrations as input properties to a Monte Carlo mixing model to quantify the contribution of different geologic sources to river sediment. Overall, between 2007 and 2009, erosion rates reached 249 ± 75 t km^?2 yr^?1 at the outlet of the Bléone catchment, but this mean value masked important spatial variations of erosion intensity within the catchment (85–5000 t km^?2 yr^?1). Quantifying the contribution of different potential sources to river sediment required the application of sediment fingerprinting using a Monte Carlo mixing model. This model allowed the specific contributions of different geological sub‐types (i.e. black marls, marly limestones, conglomerates and Quaternary deposits) to be determined. Even though they generate locally very high erosion rates, black marls supplied only a minor fraction (5–20%) of the fine sediment collected on the riverbed in the vicinity of the 907 km² catchment outlet. The bulk of sediment was provided by Quaternary deposits (21–66%), conglomerates (3–44%) and limestones (9–27%). Even though bioengineering works conducted currently to stabilize gullies in black marl terrains are undoubtedly useful to limit sediment supply to the Bléone river, erosion generated by other substrate sources dominated between 2007 and 2009 in this catchment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human impact on the transport of terrigenous and anthropogenic elements to peri-alpine lakes (Switzerland) over the last decades

Terrigenous (Sc, Fe, K, Mg, Al, Ti) and anthropogenic (Pb and Cu) element fluxes were measured in a new sediment core from Lake Biel (Switzerland) and in previously well-documented cores from two upstream lakes (Lake Brienz and Lake Thun). These three large peri-alpine lakes are connected by the Aare River, which is the main tributary to the High Rhine River. Major and trace element analysis of the sediment cores by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) shows that the site of Lake Brienz receives three times more terrigenous elements than the two other studied sites, given by the role of Lake Brienz as the first major sediment sink located in the foothills of the Alps. Overall, the terrigenous fluxes reconstructed at the three studied sites suggest that the construction of sediment-trapping reservoirs during the twentieth century noticeably decreased the riverine suspended sediment load at a regional scale. In fact, the extensive river damming that occurred in the upstream watershed catchment (between ca. 1930 and 1950 and up to 2,300 m a.s.l.) and that significantly modified seasonal suspended sediment loads and riverine water discharge patterns to downstream lakes noticeably diminished the long-range transport of (fine) terrigenous particles by the Aare River. Concerning the transport of anthropogenic pollutants, the lowest lead enrichment factors (EFs Pb) were measured in the upstream course of the Aare River at the site of Lake Brienz, whereas the metal pollution was highest in downstream Lake Biel, with the maximum values measured between 1940 and 1970 (EF Pb > 3). The following recorded regional reduction in aquatic Pb pollution started about 15 years before the actual introduction of unleaded gasoline in 1985. Furthermore, the radiometric dating of the sediment core from Lake Biel identifies three events of hydrological transport of artificial radionuclides released by the nuclear reactor of Mühleberg located at more than 15 km upstream of Lake Biel for the time period 1970–2000.     

太湖的泥沙与演变

历史时期,太湖是不断扩展的,其平均扩展速率为0.37km~2/a。据沙量平衡分析与计算表明。因湖岸崩塌和太湖水系的输沙作用,近期太湖的泥沙淤积量为9.28×10~5t/a.泥沙数量虽然不大,但经过长期的积累,对太湖演变具有深刻影响。就自然演变趋势而言,近期太湖面积仍以0.168km~2/a的速率扩大,容积则以3.95×10~5m~3/a的速率减小,太湖正进一步向浅平方向演变。然而,因围湖造田,建国以来,太湖的面积则以4.58km~2/a的速率在减小。     

Factors controlling sediment yield in a major South American drainage basin: the Magdalena River,Colombia

The Magdalena River, a major fluvial system draining most of the Colombian Andes, has the highest sediment yield of any medium-sized or large river in South America. We examined sediment yield and its response to control variables in the Magdalena drainage basin based on a multi-year dataset of sediment loads from 32 tributary catchments. Various morphometric, hydrologic, and climatic variables were estimated in order to understand and predict the variation in sediment yield. Sediment yield varies from 128 to 2200 t km⁻² yr⁻¹ for catchments ranging from 320 to 59,600 km². The mean sediment yield for 32 sub-basins within the Magdalena basin is ∼690 t km⁻² yr⁻¹. Mean annual runoff is the dominant control and explains 51% of the observed variance in sediment yield. A multiple regression model, including two control variables, runoff and maximum water discharge, explains 58% of the variance. This model is efficient (ME=0.89) and is a valuable tool for predicting total sediment yield from tributary catchments in the Magdalena basin. Multiple correlations for those basins corresponding to the upper Magdalena, middle basin, Eastern Cordillera, and catchment areas greater than 2000 km², explain 75, 77, 89, and 78% of the variance in sediment yield, respectively. Although more variance is explained when dataset are grouped into categories, the models are less efficient (ME<0.72). Within the spatially distributed models, six catchment variables predict sediment yield, including runoff, precipitation, precipitation peakedness, mean elevation, mean water discharge, and relief. These estimators are related to the relative importance of climate and weathering, hillslope erosion, and fluvial transport processes. Time series analysis indicates that significant increases in sediment load have occurred over 68% of the catchment area, while 31% have experienced a decreasing trend in sediment load and thus yield. Land use analysis and increasing sediment load trends indicate that erosion within the catchment has increased over the last 10–20 years.     

Analysis of the hydrological response of a tropical terminal lake,Lake Abiyata (Main Ethiopian Rift Valley) to changes in climate and human activities

Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r² = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.