2011年4月2日卢氏县寒潮天气成因分析

供水预测是区域水资源配置中的重要组成部分,供水预测结果直接决定着水资源配置结果。由于常规的预测方法不能适应区域的实际情况,因此在考虑水质和水权条件下,定义了可供水量概念,并结合区域实际情况,提出以可供水量预测为基础的供水预测的实际计算步骤和方法及遇到实际问题的解决方法。由该方法对新郑市供水进行预测,预测结果符合实际,可为新郑市水资源配置及水系规划提供参考依据。     

天津市供水量与气象因子相关分析及预测模型

利用天津市某区2017年逐日、2017年7月逐时供水资料和气象资料,分析日、时供水量的变化特征及其与气象因子的关系,建立基于气象因子的日供水量预测模型。结果表明:夏季供水量最多,秋季、春季的次之,冬季的最少;日供水量存在明显的节假日效应,特别是在春节长假期间供水量下降明显。分析日供水量与气象因子的相关系数发现,除冬季外,日供水量与气温相关性较高,与其他气象因子相关系数季节差异明显。7月供水时变化特征主要受居民工作生活习惯影响,同一时次的供水量与蒸发量、相对湿度和整点气温相关性较高,但有明显的滞后性,13时的气象条件对全天总供水量影响较大。综合以上分析结论,建立多元回归日供水量预测模型。模型预测结果平均误差为1.48%,可作为日供水量预测参考依据。     

博尔塔拉河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价

博尔塔拉河流域大规模的农业开发和不合理的水资源开发利用,使得流域内生态环境脆弱,导致了补给干流的水资源减少,使得干流(尤其是在下游)产生了一系列的生态环境问题。本文针对博尔塔拉河流域水资源的实际情况,依据博尔塔拉河流域供需状况等,选取人均水资源可利用量,人均供水量、水资源利用率、耕地灌溉率、供水模数、需水模数、生活用水定额、生态用水率等指标,应用模糊综合评价方法综合评价了流域内现状和不同年份的水资源承载力,并提出了提高水资源承载力的途径。     

克拉玛依城市供水与气象条件的相关分析

根据克拉玛依近10年的供水逐日资料，分析了城市供水的季节分布特征以及与气象条件的相关关系，并建立了日供水量的简易预测方程。     

半干旱地区农业于旱的判别方法

本文介绍了冬小麦、夏玉米在半干旱农业区各生育期需水量，实际供水量及供水不足对农作物相对产量影响程度的计算方法，并以此为依据对半于旱地区农业干旱程度进行定量判别。     

试论气候变化对我国水资源的影响

从水文系统的降水、蒸发、径流和土壤水分及水资源系统供水、需水和水资源管理等方面综述了区域水文水资源对气候变化的响应,提出了作者的看法。     

石家庄城市供水与气象条件

利用多元回归等统计方法逐月分析了气温、湿度、降水及风等气象因子与供水之间的关系 ,并对闷热指数、焚风等与供水量之间的相互关系和规律进行了分析 ,制作了短期供水预报。     

试论气候变化对我国水资源的影响

从水文系统的降水、蒸发、径流和土壤水分及水资源系统供水、需水和水资源管理等方面综述了区域水文水资源对气候变化的响应，提出了作者的看法。     

区域水资源优化配置多目标模型求解的Matlab与Excel集成实现

区域水资源优化配置模型是决策变量多、结构复杂的非线性多目标模型,简洁快速的求解方法是模型用于实践的关键。利用excel和matlab的特点,通过excellink工具建立excel和matlab的数据通道,实现两者之间的通信,把excel作为数据输入端,调用matlab的函数求解多目标规划问题,实现了对区域水资源配置多目标模型的求解.以郑州市水资源优化配置为例进行了实践应用,应用结果表明,求解方法具有操作简便、易于实现、通用性强的特点。     

区域水资源优化配置多目标模型求解的Matlab与Excel集成实现

区域水资源优化配置模型是决策变量多、结构复杂的非线性多目标模型,简洁快速的求解方法是模型用于实践的关键.利用excel和matlab的特点,通过excellink工具建立excel和matlab的数据通道,实现两者之间的通信,把excel作为数据输入端,调用matlab的函数求解多目标规划问题,实现了对区域水资源配置多目标模型的求解.以郑州市水资源优化配置为例进行了实践应用,应用结果表明,求解方法具有操作简便、易于实现、通用性强的特点.     

Water erosion control

Under natural conditions, balanced ecological systems develop in which the soil is protected by a cover of different plants. When man modifies the environment, in his attempts to produce more food, fiber and fuel, the ecological system is changed.This often results in the soil being exposed to the processes of accelerated water erosion. In this way, millions of hectares of land, particularly in the semi arid areas are now eroding.This paper stresses that the most important principle in controlling water erosion is to develop a new balanced system which is not only productive but which is also stable.Water erosion control schemes should therefore be based on the selection and introduction of correct land use.Examples are given of the types of measures that may be needed for cultivated, grazing and forestry lands.In some cases, a change in land use may also have to be supported by the construction of physical conservation measures. Some common examples of such measures are briefly described.     

Global Warming and Water Management: Water Allocation and Project Evaluation

This paper explores the sensitivity of the benefits of alternative water allocation schemes and of project evaluation to global warming. If global warming shifts the mean of annual water supplies, there could be large impacts on the expected values of alternative water allocation schemes. The first section of the paper explores how well alternative schemes (such as market mechanisms, prior rights, or percentage flows) perform if the distribution of flows changes. In a case study of the Colorado River, market mechanisms and flow guarantees result in smaller impacts than rules which allocate inefficient percentages of flows to heterogeneous users. The second part of the paper explores the effect of a gradually changing distribution of flows on project evaluations. Project evaluation is sensitive to predicted future changes in mean flows. Project evaluation is not sensitive to changes in the variance of future flows unless the variance increase is large and the benefit measure is highly curvilinear. Because basin-specific changes in runoff from global warming are currently uncertain and much delayed, most project analyses will be unaffected by global warming. The most important response by water managers to climate change may simply be to closely monitor runoff and incorporate flexible rules in order to adapt their behavior to observed changes.     

大气水分循环方程

任何地点的降水量可能来自地球的任何地点的水分蒸发。为了定量描述大气中的这种水分循环的复杂过程,我们引入了两个概念性的工具:大气水分辐合函数和大气水分辐散函数,并且建立了用它们描述大气水分循环的方程组。     

天山山区水汽和云水含量的空间分布特征

利用欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)发布的第一代全球分辨率ERA-Interim再分析数据,分析了1979～2014年天山山区水汽含量和云水含量的空间分布特征。结果显示：(1)水汽含量的高值中心出现在伊犁河谷地区,中心值域在10—11kg m-2之间,低值区位于天山中部的巴音布鲁克附近,中心值域在5—6kg m-2之间;夏季水汽含量最丰富,在8—11kg m-2之间。(2)云液水含量的高值区出现在博格达山北坡,而云冰水含量的高值区在西天山海拔较高的托木尔峰地区,低值区均在伊犁河谷等海拔低的地区;夏季云液水含量、云冰水含量均呈减少趋势,云冰水含量较云液水减少的更为明显,下降速率为0.28kg kg-1/10a;(3)垂直分布上,云液水含量在600hpa左右的高空出现高值区,中心最大值为10kg kg-1;云冰水含量的高值区则出现在500hpa左右的高空,为11kg kg-1;在对流层大气中云冰水含量值远大于云液水,且云冰水发展的高度较云液水更高。     

Assessing Urban Water Use and the Role of Water Conservation Measures under Climate Uncertainty

There has been substantial analysis of the possible impact of climate change on water supply, especially with respect to runoff and river flows. Less attention has been given to urban water use. Little is known of the suitability of various water use forecasting models for predicting climate impacts or of the best procedures for assessing this issue. This paper will: (1) demonstrate the feasibility of a scenario approach to describing possible changes in climate, (2) evaluate the IWR-MAIN model as a source of plausible water use forecasts given uncertain future climate, (3) test the effectiveness of conservation and pricing interventions in reversing the postulated effects of climate change, and (4) assess the significance of climate change for future urban water management. Other possible responses to climate change, such as supply augmentation, are not explicitly considered. Using data for the Washington (DC) metropolitan area, the study reveals problems with IWR-MAIN version 5.1 when used for this purpose, but results in a reasonable assessment of the possible water use consequences of climate change. Variation in future water use due to climate uncertainty was found to be moderate compared to other uncertain influences, and well within reach of feasible policy interventions.     

利用双频微波辐射计测空中水汽和云液水含量的个例分析

利用23.8GHz和31.65GHz双频地基微波辐射计观测资料,结合卫星云图、雷达、探空和自记雨量计等资料分析了2005年4月在河南新乡观测的不同云系影响时大气垂直积分含水量(V)和云中液态含水量(L)的演变特征,对4月8日低槽云系影响时V、L的特征进行了分析。结果表明:双频辐射计对空中水汽和液态水反映灵敏,不同天气背景时对应有不同的V、L值分布。云液水含量L的变化与云量的增减有关。降水开始之前,水汽含量V值有明显波动,液态水含量L值也有明显增加,一般增大到0.4mm时即出现降水。这些现象对降水开始有指示意义,可预测云系正处于降水产生的阶段,可应用于人工增雨作业。此外,根据微波辐射计观测资料分析了大气水汽、云液水和地面降水之间的定量关系,云中液态水仅占汽态水的8.7‰左右,落回地面的降水占空中水汽量的18%左右。     

Climate and Water: From Climate Models to Water Resources Management and Vice Versa

This article reviews the recent developments in the functional chain from climate models to climate scenarios, through hydrology all the way to water resources management, design and policy making. Although climate models, such as Global Circulation Models (GCMs) continue to evolve, their outputs remain crude and often even inappropriate to watershed-scale hydrological analyses. The bridging techniques are evolving, though. Many families of regionalization technologies are under progress in parallel. Perhaps the most important advances are in the field of regional weather patterns, such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and many more. The gap from hydrology to water resources development is by far not that wide. The traditional and contemporary practices are well in place. In climate change studies, the bottleneck is not in this link itself but in the climatic input. The tendency seems to be towards integrated water resources assessments, where climate is only one among many changes that are expected to occur, such as demography, land cover and land use, economy, technologies, and so forth. In such a pragmatic setting a risk–analytic interpretation of those scenarios is often called for. The above-outlined continuum from climate to water is a topic where the physically based modelers, the empiricists and the pragmatists should not get restricted to their own way of thinking. The issues should develop hand in hand. Perhaps the greatest challenge is to incorporate and respect the pragmatic policy-related component to the two other branches. For this purpose, it is helpful to reverse the direction of thinking from time to time to start—instead of climate models—from practical needs and think how the climate scenarios and models help really in the difficult task of designing better water structures, outline better policies and formulate better operational rules in the water field.     

E601B型蒸发器观测后加水与汲水问题分析

针对台站E601B型蒸发器观测后加水与汲水的问题,通过分析,找出主要原因是蒸发器蒸发桶内标准水面高度的位置确立,是解决问题的关键所在.     

基于MODIS的近红外大气水汽含量的反演及其与地基GPS水汽的对比分析

利用ENVI4.5软件对2007年7—9月间23 d的MODIS 1B晴空数据进行水汽的反演,从中提取乌鲁木齐地区水汽含量并与地基GPS水汽数据进行对比分析,发现经过MODIS 1B反演的近红外水汽相对于地基GPS水汽偏小,但两者的变化趋势基本一致。通过MODIS近红外水汽的订正公式对反演的水汽进行订正,可使乌鲁木齐地区MODIS晴空像元大气水汽含量精度明显提高。