Modeling the potential impact of climate change in northern Mexico using two environmental indicators

Modeling the deterioration of natural resources, especially water and soil that results from the global effects of climate change has become a powerful tool in the search for mitigation and adaptation measures. The objectives of this research were: (1) to model the potential impact of climate change for the period 2010-2039, and (2) to offer advice about future risks based on local radiative forcing or critical areas and taking into account two indicators of environmental quality, the aridity index (AI) and laminar wind erosion (LWE). Evaluation techniques for natural resources, similar to those applied by the Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change) were used for studies of ecological land use. The inputs include climate information (current and future), soil cover and edaphic properties related to the municipality of Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico (25.886° N, 103.476° W). According to calculations estimated from the anomalies for the mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature, in a future climate change scenario, an average impact of approximately 63% would be caused by LWE, and the AI would change from its historical value of 9.3 to 8.7. It is estimated that the average impact on the AI in the future will be 0.53 ± 0.2.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Improving the WRF/urban modeling system in China by developing a national urban dataset

Accurate modeling of urban climate is essential to predict potential environmental risks in cities. Urban datasets, such as urban land use and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), are key input data for urban climate models and largely affect their performance. However, access to reliable urban datasets is a challenge, especially in fast urbanizing countries. In this study, we developed a high-resolution national urban dataset in China (NUDC) for the WRF/urban modeling system and evaluated its effect on urban climate modeling. Specifically, an optimization method based on building morphology was proposed to classify urban land use types. The key UCPs, including building height and width, street width, surface imperviousness, and anthropogenic heat flux, were calculated for both single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) and multiple-layer Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The results show that the derived morphological-based urban land use classification could better reflect the urban characteristics, compared to the socioeconomic-function-based classification. The UCPs varied largely in spatial within and across the cities. The integration of the developed urban land use and UCPs datasets significantly improved the representation of urban canopy characteristics, contributing to a more accurate modeling of near-surface air temperature, humidity, and wind in urban areas. The UCM performed better in the modeling of air temperature and humidity, while the BEP performed better in the modeling of wind speed. The newly developed NUDC can advance the study of urban climate and improve the prediction of potential urban environmental risks in China.     

辽宁省抚顺市区地质灾害监测系统设计方案

抚顺市地质灾害监测系统，由5方面工作内容组成：(1)建立统一可靠的城市高程起算基准；(2)扩展现有的沉降监测网，使分散的监测点联合形成全面、统一的监测网；(3)对浑河断裂带主断层实施监测；(4)对西露天采坑北坡滑坡重点区和采煤沉陷重点区实施水平位移监测；(5)利用计算机技术和地理信息系统(GIS)技术，建立抚顺市地质灾害信患系统。该系统是城市地质灾害防治的基础工程。系统应用了先进的监测手段及数据处理技术。文章介绍了系统的设计方案。     

Development of spectral hazard maps for a proposed revision of the Indonesian Seismic Building Code

The need to revise the current Indonesian Seismic Hazard Map contained in Indonesian Earthquake Resistant Building Code SNI 03-1726-2002 which partially adopts the concept of UBC 1997, was driven among others by the desire to better reflect the potential larger earthquake disasters faced by the nation in the future. The much larger than maximum predicted Aceh Earthquake (M _w 9.0–9.3) of 2004, followed by the destruction observed during the 2005 Nias Earthquake (M _w 8.7) urgently underline to need to consider the new conceptual approach and technological shift shown in the transition of UBC 1997 to IBC 2006. This paper presents research works for developing spectral hazard maps for Indonesia. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented using recent seismic records. Seismic sources were modeled by background, fault, and subduction zones by considering a truncated exponential model, pure characteristic model or both models. A logic tree method was performed to account for the epistemic uncertainty and several attenuation functions were selected. Maps of PGA and spectral accelerations for a short period (0.2 s) and for a 1-s period were then developed using a probabilistic approach. The maps will be proposed as a revision for the current seismic hazard map in the Indonesian Seismic Building Code.     

Modelling flash flood propagation in urban areas using a two-dimensional numerical model

This paper reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam/dyke break wave. A two-dimensional (2-D) depth-averaged shallow-water model is used, with a refined grid of quadrilaterals and triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2-D shallow-water equations are solved using the explicit second-order scheme that is adapted from MUSCL approach. Four applications are described to demonstrate the potential benefits and limits of 2-D modelling: (i) laboratory experimental dam-break wave in the presence of an isolated building; (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce river valley in Italy; (iii) flash flood in October 1988 at the city of Nîmes (France) and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacárcel (Spain). Computed flow depths and velocities compare well with recorded data, although for the experimental study on dam-break wave some discrepancies are observed around buildings, where the flow is strongly 3-D in character. The numerical simulations show that the flow depths and flood wave celerity are significantly affected by the presence of buildings in comparison with the original floodplain. Further, this study confirms the importance of topography and roughness coefficient for flood propagation simulation.     

Monitoring of hazards and urban growth in Villavicencio, Colombia, using scanned air photos and satellite imagery

A method is presented to monitor the development of geomorphic hazard areas by overlaying time series of air photos in a digital image processing system. The present study deals with such hazards affecting an urban area, Villavicencio at the foot of the eastern Andes in Colombia. The relevant windows of the air photos are digitized by flat-bed scanning and then transformed geometrically to be overlain on SPOT panchromatic imagery where available. The 10 m resolution of the satellite imagery allows, in practice, sufficient detail to bring out the differences, which are a yardstick to monitor the development of the phenomenon over time. Where no SPOT panchromatic imagery is available, one of the photos may be taken as a reference; registration to a topographic base map is also possible. A development over time to the present hazardous situations can be read from the analyzed imagery. Air photo series dating back to 1937 are available for this research, in the context of a geomorphic hazards study currently undertaken in the eastern Colombian Andes front where it pushes against the Llanos Orientales. The mountain front is quite steep and high, and the contact with the plains is very abrupt. A thrust fault zone in which the rocks are strongly mylonitized, marks the eastern front. Villavicencio lies just below this zone, but its main access road has to cross it. The terrain is mostly made up of Mesozoic and Palaeozoic sedimentary series, with prominent black lutites; Tertiary sedimentaries are found in the foreland. All rocks are strongly folded and faulted. Precipitation is in the order of 3500–5500 mm per year. Records on river discharge events are scarce or absent. Seismic events are frequent in the area. This area is prone to strong and rapid geomorphic processes posing hazards to the inhabitants. The town of Villavicencio is the gateway to the Llanos Orientales. It is the major town for hundreds of kilometres around, and a commercial, educational and health centre for the whole eastern region of Colombia. It is connected to Santa Fe de Bogotá, the national Capital, by the only highway to the Llanos, which traverses very difficult terrain through the Eastern Andes, and is cut frequently by landslides, bridge collapse etc., as a result of the torrential rainfall and the instability of the terrain. A major hazard is a big landslip known as the Mirador, close to Villavicencio, on the main road to Bogotá. Its rapid advancement has caused numerous road closures; its growth could be monitored on the scanned and registered air photos. The shifting and flooding of the Guatiquía River threatens the left bank, on which the airport of Villavicencio is situated. The development of the flood hazard, and the areal extent of the area threatened, is monitored and measured on the scanned and referenced air photos. The areal growth of the town of Villavicencio itself could likewise be monitored and measured. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Understanding subsurface geological and geotechnical complexity at various scales in urban soils using a 3D model

The construction of a three-dimensional (3D) geological model to the scale of a city (greater Bordeaux area, France) has been undertaken, using several thousand boreholes and several hundred geotechnical tests on a more limited area. Data from some specific geographical areas have also been analysed for the purposes of professional applications related to geotechnical engineering, urban archaeology and asset management of buried networks. This paper focuses on the geotechnical dimensions, uncertainties and associated hazards. First, a geometrical model of the quaternary layer basis was built to the scale of the city, the variogram of which quantifies and models the anisotropic spatial correlation of this layer. Two specific studies were then made, as described in the following:

• modelling of the stratigraphy, to the scale of the city, in order to assess the depth and extent of the Flandrian formations. The thickness of these formations is directly linked to the staircase terraces of the Garonne river.

• on-site site analysis of an area where an infrastructure has suffered damage, resulting from large differential settlements, owing to its poor geotechnical properties. We show how geostatistical methods applied to in-situ or laboratory parameters can improve knowledge and understanding of the site, and can be useful in improving the settlement predictions which had been initially underestimated.

     

Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data

Recent developments in the neotectonic framework of Turkey introduced new tectonic elements necessitating the reconstruction of Turkey's seismic hazard map. In this regard, 14 seismic source zones were delineated. Maximum earthquake magnitudes for each seismic zones were determined using the fault rupture length approximation. Regression coefficients of the earthquake magnitude–frequency relationships for the seismic zones were compiled mostly from earlier works. Along with these data, a strong ground motion attenuation relationship developed by Joyner and Boore [Joyner, W.B., Boore, D.M., 1988. Measurement, characterization, and prediction of strong ground motion. Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, 2. Recent Advances Ground Motion Evaluation, pp. 43–102.] was utilized to model the seismic hazard for Turkey using the probabilistic approach. For the modeling, the “earthquake location uncertainty” concept was employed. A grid of 5106 points with 0.2° intervals was constituted for the area encompassed by the 25–46°E longitudes and 35–43°N latitudes. For the return periods of 100 and 475 years, the peak horizontal ground acceleration (pga) in bedrock was computed for each grid point. Isoacceleration maps for the return periods of 100 and 475 years were constructed by contouring the pga values at each node.     

Estimation of urban mixed layer height in Zanjan using LIDAR observations and numerical modeling

Air pollution predictions often require the height of atmospheric mixed layer in time especially in big cities. Here, the variation of the height of this layer is estimated from direct measurements and also from a numerical forecast model with a high resolution boundary layer scheme. The height of the daytime mixed layer for the city of Zanjan (48.5°N, 36.7°E, 1700m above sea level) is measured using a LIDAR (532 nm) system, which works based on aerosols scattering of laser light. The mixed layer height (z _i ) for Zanjan city, well above mean sea level compared to other major cities in the world, is found to be between 1.4 km typically in spring and 2.2 km in summer, for synoptic calm conditions. Also, the MM5 forecast model with a proper boundary layer scheme (MRF) is used to estimate z _i which shows rather good agreement with direct observations using the LIDAR system. The entrainment zone of the mixed layer was also found to undergo some occasional temporal growth that may be attributed to shear instability that led to more mixed layer growth.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Karst breakdown mechanisms from observations in the gypsum caves of the Western Ukraine: implications for subsidence hazard assessment

The term karst breakdown is employed in this paper to denote the totality of processes and phenomena of gravitational and/or hydrodynamic destruction of the ceiling of a karst cavity and of the overlying sediments. It refers not only to the existence of a surface subsidence (collapse) feature but, first of all, to the internal (hidden in the subsurface) structures that precede development of a surface form. This study reports and discusses the results of direct mapping and examination of breakdown structures in the gypsum karst of the Western Ukraine, at the level of their origin, i.e., in caves. The accessibility of numerous laterally extensive maze cave systems in the region provided an excellent opportunity for such an approach, which made it possible to examine the relationship between breakdown structures and particular morphogenetic or geological features in caves, and to reveal stages of breakdown development. It is found that breakdown is initiated mainly at specific speleogenetically or geologically weakened localities, which classify into a few distinct types. The majority of breakdowns, which are potent to propagate through the overburden, relate with the outlet cupolas/domepits that represent places where water had discharged out of a cave to the upper aquifer during the period of transverse artesian speleogenesis. Distribution of breakdown structures does not correlate particularly well with the size of the master passages. Several distinct mechanisms of breakdown development are revealed, and most of them proceed in several stages. They are guided by speleogenetic, geological and hydrogeological factors. The study confirms that a speleogenetic approach is indispensable to the understanding of breakdown pre-requisites and mechanisms, as well as for eventual subsidence hazard assessment. Direct observations in caves, aimed both at speleogenetic investigation and breakdown characterization on regional- or site-specific levels, should be employed wherever possible.     

福州主城区表层土壤生态危害评价

采用生态危害指数法对福州市230件表层土壤样品中7种重金属（Hg、Pb、Cr、Zn、Cu、Cd、As）进行评价。结果表明,福州老城区达中等危害程度,个别已达较强的危害程度,并且以Hg危害最大。     

西安城市地温与气温变化初步分析

地下浅层地温和近地表空气温度存在着必然的内在联系,地面温度变化的信息随着时间推移向下传播并叠加到稳态地温场上,因此通过对现今地温剖面的分析可以重建过去地面温度变化的历史。为了研究西安地区地下和地上的温度变化,本文在西安开展了钻孔温度测量,获得了16个钻孔的地温剖面,同时收集整理了西安气象站1951～2010年气温数据。对1951～2010年气温数据进行回归分析得到西安地区年平均气温、年平均最高气温和最低气温增温率分别为3.71 ℃/100a、2.03 ℃/100a和5.14 ℃/100a,均高于全国和全球平均水平,其中1986～2010年间平均气温增温更是显著,达到9.01 ℃/100a。从钻孔测温曲线中筛选出西安城郊6个传导型地温剖面进行分析,结果表明西安地区钻孔温度记录的地面温度变化趋势与气象台记录的气温变化趋势基本吻合。根据利用钻孔温度剖面下段回归分析得到的地表稳态温度和地温梯度以及25年间西安地区平均气温增温率推算得到钻孔理论地温剖面与实测地温数据总体上具有较好的一致性。对实测地温数据的进一步精确拟合分析显示,西安城郊6个选定的钻孔所在区域地面温度变暖分别起始于20年、24年、26年、28年、30年和30年前,对应的地表增温幅度分别为0.4 ℃、0.72 ℃、2.18 ℃、4.2 ℃、2.4 ℃和2.4 ℃。市区和周边郊区钻孔所在区域在增温幅度上存在明显的差异,市区增温强度明显高于郊区,而城郊结合部介于两者之间。     

基于ARCGIS的地质灾害防治信息与决策支持系统的研制

提出以四库一体模式实现基于ARCGIS的地质灾害防治决策支持的思路,即以模型为主导,调用方法,提取相关数据计算,对模型进行求解;利用ES对系统判识进行匹配、分析,辅助专家进行决策;将专家决策结果作为知识源提取而存入知识库中.信息系统是整个系统的事务管理层,决策支持系统则是系统应用处理层,两者互为依托.信息系统是决策支持系统的信息源,决策支持系统所产生的结果进入信息系统并对其进行管理,当决策支持系统的模型、方法、知识运作成熟,数据结构化后,又将进入信息系统中,成为信息系统的组成部分.     

Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.     

Farming as a livelihood source for the urban poor of Nakuru, Kenya

Farming among urban dwellers in Sub-Saharan Africa is a common phenomenon. The present study, carried out in a medium-sized town in Kenya, not only confirmed this but also showed that farming by urban dwellers in the rural areas was even more important for these households’ livelihoods than farming in town. However, those who could benefit most from farming, i.e. the urban poor, appeared to be underrepresented among urban farming households and those urban poor who did farm, either in urban or in rural areas, performed worse than the farming non-poor. The importance of farming as a livelihood source is illustrated by the fact that in years with very little or no harvest due to drought, many of the poor farming households faced food shortages.     

Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer,southern British Columbia,Canada

The Grand Forks aquifer, located in south-central British Columbia, Canada was used as a case study area for modeling the sensitivity of an aquifer to changes in recharge and river stage consistent with projected climate-change scenarios for the region. Results suggest that variations in recharge to the aquifer under the different climate-change scenarios, modeled under steady-state conditions, have a much smaller impact on the groundwater system than changes in river-stage elevation of the Kettle and Granby Rivers, which flow through the valley. All simulations showed relatively small changes in the overall configuration of the water table and general direction of groundwater flow. High-recharge and low-recharge simulations resulted in approximately a +0.05 m increase and a –0.025 m decrease, respectively, in water-table elevations throughout the aquifer. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect higher-than-peak-flow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of 2.72 and 3.45 m, respectively. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect lower-than-baseflow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of –0.48 and –2.10 m, respectively. Current observed water-table elevations in the valley are consistent with an average river-stage elevation (between current baseflow and peak-flow stages).

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Resumen El acuífero de los Grand Forks, situado al sur de la Columbia Británica central (Canadá) ha sido utilizado como lugar de estudio para modelar la sensibilidad de un acuífero a los cambios en la recarga y el caudal de los ríos de acuerdo con escenarios previstos de cambio climático en la región. Los resultados sugieren que las variaciones en la recarga al acuífero bajo los diversos escenarios, que han sido modelados en régimen estacionario, tienen un impacto mucho menor en las aguas subterráneas que los cambios en el caudal de los ríos Kettle y Granby, que discurren por el valle. Todas las simulaciones muestran diferencias relativamente pequeñas en la configuración regional de los niveles freáticos y en la dirección general del flujo subterráneo. Las simulaciones de recarga elevada y baja causan un incremento de 0,05 m y un decremento de 0,025 m, respectivamente, en los niveles del acuífero. Los cambios de la elevación del río, simulados para reflejar niveles de flujo mayores que los valores pico (en un 20% y un 50%) resultan en cambios medios de los niveles del acuífero de 2,72 m y 3,45 m, respectivamente. Los cambios simulados en la elevación del río para flujos inferiores al caudal de base (en un 20% y en un 50%) provocan descensos en los niveles de 0,48 y 2,10 m, respectivamente. Los niveles actuales del acuífero en el valle son coherentes con una elevación media del nivel en el río (entre el caudal de base actual y los picos de caudal).

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Résumé L'aquifère de Grand Forks, situé en Colombie britannique (Canada), a été utilisé comme zone d'étude pour modéliser la sensibilité d'un aquifère à des modifications de la recharge et du niveau de la rivière, correspondant à des scénarios envisagés de changement climatique dans cette région. Les résultats font apparaître que les variations de recharge de l'aquifère pour différents scénarios de changement climatique, modélisées pour des conditions de régime permanent, ont un impact sur le système aquifère beaucoup plus faible que les changements du niveau des rivières Kettle et Granby, qui coulent dans la vallée. Toutes les simulations ont montré des différences relativement faibles dans la configuration d'ensemble de la nappe et dans la direction générale des écoulements. Des simulations de conditions de recharge forte et de recharge faible produisent respectivement une remontée de 0,05 m et un abaissement de 0,025 m, approximativement, des cotes de la nappe pour l'ensemble de l'aquifère. Des changements simulés de la cote du niveau de la rivière, pour refléter des niveaux plus hauts que ceux des pics de crues (de 20 et de 50%), produisent respectivement des remontées de la nappe de 2,72 et 3,45 m en moyenne. Des changements simulés de l'altitude du niveau de la rivière, pour refléter des niveaux plus bas que ceux de basses eaux (de 20 et de 50%), produisent respectivement des abaissements de la nappe de 0,48 et 2,10 m en moyenne. Les altitudes courantes observées de la nappe dans la vallée sont cohérentes avec une cote moyenne du niveau de la rivière (entre les niveaux courants de basses eaux et de crues).

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Sensitivity in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: The model and the data

Both advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which relate to the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is recognized readily by geologists and others with a knowledge of nuclear regulatory requirements as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety. We regard basaltic volcanism as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. Direct disruption of a repository site by basaltic volcanism therefore is a possibility. In this paper, sensitivity analysis of volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site is performed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the sensitivity data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP). The second model uses a Weibull Process (WP) to estimate the instantaneous recurrence rate based on the historical data at NTS (the Nevada Test Site). The model then switches from a WP of past events to a predictive HPP. The third model assumes that the prior historical trend based on a WP would continue for future activities. Hazards (at least one disruptive event during the next 10,000 years) using both classical and Bayesian approaches are evaluated based on the data for the following two observation periods: Pliocene and younger, and Quaternary. Combinations of various counts of events at volcanic centers of controversy and inclusion (or exclusion) of the youngest date at Lathrop Wells Center (=0.01 Ma) generate 90 different data sets. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each data set and the minimum and the maximum hazards for each model are summarized. We conclude that the estimated overall probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism during the next 10,000 years is bounded between 2.02×10⁵ and 6.57×10^–3.     

Analyses of precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change

This study is focused on the western part of the French Mediterranean area, namely the Pyrénées-Orientales and Aude administrative departments. The water resources (surface and groundwater) in the region are sensitive to climate change. The study addresses the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) already appears at the scale of this region. Two data sources have been used: (a) direct local measurements using the meteorological network; and (b) spatially interpolated data from the French weather service model SAFRAN for the period 1970–2006. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify significant trends at the local scale and, because of the natural spatial variability of the Mediterranean climate, regional interpretation was also performed. The trends observed in the 13 catchments of interest are consistent with those observed at a larger scale. An increase in annual mean temperature and annual PET was observed throughout the study area, whereas annual precipitation has not exhibited any trend. The monthly scale has revealed strong seasonal variability in trend. The trend for an increase in monthly PET has been observed mainly in the spring, and has not been seen in the coastal areas. A trend for an increase in monthly temperature has been observed in June and in the spring throughout the entire area. Monthly rainfall has been found to decrease in June and increase in November throughout the area. The significant trends observed in rainfall and temperature seem to be consistent between the different data sources.